Management-free techniques for restoration of Eisenia and Ecklonia beds along the central Pacific coast of Japan

Because of the importance of seaweed resources for conservation of thecoastal environment, the provision of habitats of commercially importantspecies and because of use as human food, a study was carried out on bedsof Eisenia bicyclis and Ecklonia cava. This included the mostimportant environmental factors and the development of techniques forrestoration and long-term maintenance of the beds. At a site chosen fordetailed study, the Eisenia and Ecklonia bed was influenced bymany factors, including desiccation, rainfall, low salinity, low light intensity,turbidity, accumulation of suspended sediments, cover by adhering animals,wave and current action and grazing pressure. The distribution of suchseaweed beds is also limited locally by the size and hardness of rock on thebottom, and by fluctuations in the sand level at the base of the reefs.The management-free technique of creating Eisenia and Ecklonia beds is based on an understanding of the factors limiting the localdistribution of the beds. Conditions for seaweed growth can then beartificially enhanced by coastal engineering. Suggestions to enhance Eisenia and Ecklonia bed restoration using management-freetechniques include raising the bottom, elevating substrata above the sandybottom, and providing substrata of a shape suitable for the attachment ofkelp.     

A field test of porous carbonated blocks used as artificial reef in seaweed beds of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Ecklonia cava</Emphasis>

Marine forests are the main primary producer in coastal waters, supplying food to fish and shellfish as well as providing their spawning and growing sites. It is important to conserve marine forest in order to protect coastal marine environments. A “Marine Block” comprised of steelmaking slag particles combined by CaCO₃ has several merits: (1) solidification of CO₂, (2) stability and safety, (3) porous materials covered with CaCO₃, (4) harmony with the seabed environment, (5) recycling of iron by-products, and (6) the ability to be mass produced in coastal ironworks. The objectives of this study were to observe the algal succession, the growth of Ecklonia cava and other attached organisms on Marine Blocks and concrete blocks compared to natural seaweed beds. In November 2001, five 1 m³ Marine Blocks and five 1 m³ concrete blocks were installed close to E. cava beds around the coastal frontage of Jogashima at the mouth of Tokyo Bay. Scuba-diving observations were continued until April 2006. In the field, a large number of seaweed and animal species were observed on the Marine Blocks, and it was found that the speed of succession, the plant length and the wet weight of E. cava were greater on Marine Blocks than on concrete blocks. The main advantages of Marine Blocks are considered to be the recycling of steelmaking slag, the absorption and solidification of atmospheric CO₂, and the conservation of coastal environments.     

The impact of climate change on the distribution of two threatened Dipterocarp trees

Two ecologically and economically important, and threatened Dipterocarp trees Sal (Shorea robusta) and Garjan (Dipterocarpus turbinatus) form mono‐specific canopies in dry deciduous, moist deciduous, evergreen, and semievergreen forests across South Asia and continental parts of Southeast Asia. They provide valuable timber and play an important role in the economy of many Asian countries. However, both Dipterocarp trees are threatened by continuing forest clearing, habitat alteration, and global climate change. While climatic regimes in the Asian tropics are changing, research on climate change‐driven shifts in the distribution of tropical Asian trees is limited. We applied a bioclimatic modeling approach to these two Dipterocarp trees Sal and Garjan. We used presence‐only records for the tree species, five bioclimatic variables, and selected two climatic scenarios (RCP4.5: an optimistic scenario and RCP8.5: a pessimistic scenario) and three global climate models (GCMs) to encompass the full range of variation in the models. We modeled climate space suitability for both species, projected to 2070, using a climate envelope modeling tool “MaxEnt” (the maximum entropy algorithm). Annual precipitation was the key bioclimatic variable in all GCMs for explaining the current and future distributions of Sal and Garjan (Sal: 49.97 ± 1.33; Garjan: 37.63 ± 1.19). Our models predict that suitable climate space for Sal will decline by 24% and 34% (the mean of the three GCMs) by 2070 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. In contrast, the consequences of imminent climate change appear less severe for Garjan, with a decline of 17% and 27% under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. The findings of this study can be used to set conservation guidelines for Sal and Garjan by identifying vulnerable habitats in the region. In addition, the natural habitats of Sal and Garjan can be categorized as low to high risk under changing climates where artificial regeneration should be undertaken for forest restoration.     

气候振荡背景下宁夏枸杞地理分区变迁研究

宁夏枸杞在中国北方广泛分布,重建宁夏枸杞的历史地理分布格局,确定其环境分布限制,为其种质资源保护和植物形成与进化趋势研究提供理论依据。该研究以宁夏枸杞(Lycium barbarum)为代表,采用MaxEnt模型对该物种228例野生有效分布点和19个环境变量进行评估,以明确影响其分布的相关环境因子;并对末次间冰期以来不同时期的地理分布格局进行建模分析,以揭示在气候变暖条件下宁夏枸杞适宜分布区的变化趋势,预测未来(2050s和2070s)在RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP6.0三种CO₂排放情景下宁夏枸杞的潜在地理分布变化。结果表明：(1)温度对宁夏枸杞的分布至关重要,其中最冷季度平均温度是影响该物种分布最重要的气候因子。(2)所建模型对宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区的模拟结果与当今实际分布一致,但分布区域比实际分布区域大。(3)宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区面积在末次冰盛期进行了收缩,而在末次间冰期分布区面积明显扩大(最大为4.23×10⁶ km²),并呈现出向北推进和向南退缩的趋势。(4)在未来3种气候情景下宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区面积均趋于缩小;随着气候变暖的加剧,宁夏枸杞适宜分布区将向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移,且生境破碎化现象比现在更加严重。(5)在RCP2.6 2070s情景下,宁夏枸杞质心向西迁移108.66 km;在RCP6.0 2070s情景下,宁夏枸杞质心向东北迁移30.23 km。研究认为,宁夏枸杞的分布格局对气候变化具有强烈响应,随着气候变暖,宁夏枸杞的适宜分布区将向高纬度和高海拔地区迁移。     

Combined effects of global climate change and nutrient enrichment on the physiology of three temperate maerl species

Made up of calcareous coralline algae, maerl beds play a major role as ecosystem engineers in coastal areas throughout the world. They undergo strong anthropogenic pressures, which may threaten their survival. The aim of this study was to gain insight into the future of maerl beds in the context of global and local changes. We examined the effects of rising temperatures (+3°C) and ocean acidification (?0.3 pH units) according to temperature and pH projections (i.e., the RCP 8.5 scenario), and nutrient (N and P) availability on three temperate maerl species (Lithothamnion corallioides, Phymatolithon calcareum, and Lithophyllum incrustans) in the laboratory in winter and summer conditions. Physiological rates of primary production, respiration, and calcification were measured on all three species in each treatment and season. The physiological response of maerl to global climate change was species‐specific and influenced by seawater nutrient concentrations. Future temperature–pH scenario enhanced maximal gross primary production rates in P. calcareum in winter and in L. corallioides in both seasons. Nevertheless, both species suffered an impairment of light harvesting and photoprotective mechanisms in winter. Calcification rates at ambient light intensity were negatively affected by the future temperature–pH scenario in winter, with net dissolution observed in the dark in L. corallioides and P. calcareum under low nutrient concentrations. Nutrient enrichment avoided dissolution under future scenarios in winter and had a positive effect on L. incrustans calcification rate in the dark in summer. In winter conditions, maximal calcification rates were enhanced by the future temperature–pH scenario on the three species, but P. calcareum suffered inhibition at high irradiances. In summer conditions, the maximal calcification rate dropped in L. corallioides under the future global climate change scenario, with a potential negative impact on CaCO₃ budget for maerl beds in the Bay of Brest where this species is dominant. Our results highlight how local changes in nutrient availability or irradiance levels impact the response of maerl species to global climate change and thus point out how it is important to consider other abiotic parameters in order to develop management policies capable to increase the resilience of maerl beds under the future global climate change scenario.     

气候变化对中国近海8种中上层鱼类潜在生境分布的影响

随着底层和近底层渔业资源的衰退,海洋中上层鱼类在我国海洋捕捞业中逐渐占据重要的地位。预测气候变化情景下中上层经济鱼类的潜在生境分布及其变化规律,可为应对气候变化的鱼类栖息地保护和渔业生态系统管理提供重要科学依据。采用物种分布模型模拟并预测现状及2050年两种气候变化情景下8种中上层经济鱼类在中国近海的潜在分布,通过分布区的收缩-扩张情形和质心迁移距离定量分析气候变化对鱼类空间分布格局的影响。结果表明：(1)模型预测结果良好,各组模型的AUC值均高于0.85,影响目标鱼类潜在分布的主要驱动因子为海水表层温度和溶解氧;(2)8种中上层经济鱼类中,羽鳃鲐(Rastrelliger kanagurta)、鳓鱼(Ilisha elongata)等种类生境分布偏南,气候变化情景下分布北界可扩展至长江口,而鳀鱼(Engraulis japonicus)、青鳞小沙丁鱼(Sardinella zunasi)等种类主要分布在我国北方海域,气候变化情景下生境南缘边界退缩明显;(3)整体来看RCP8.5情景下的空间分布变化率大于RCP2.6情景,其中蓝圆鲹(Decapterus maruadsi)、青鳞小沙丁...     

Predicting impacts of climate change on habitat connectivity of Kalopanax septemlobus in South Korea

Understanding the drivers of habitat distribution patterns and assessing habitat connectivity are crucial for conservation in the face of climate change. In this study, we examined a sparsely distributed tree species, Kalopanax septemlobus (Araliaceae), which has been heavily disturbed by human use in temperate forests of South Korea. We used maximum entropy distribution modeling (MaxEnt) to identify the climatic and topographic factors driving the distribution of the species. Then, we constructed habitat models under current and projected climate conditions for the year 2050 and evaluated changes in the extent and connectivity of the K. septemlobus habitat. Annual mean temperature and terrain slope were the two most important predictors of species distribution. Our models predicted the range shift of K. septemlobus toward higher elevations under medium-low and high emissions scenarios for 2050, with dramatic reductions in suitable habitat (51% and 85%, respectively). In addition, connectivity analysis indicated that climate change is expected to reduce future levels of habitat connectivity. Even under the Representative Construction Pathway (RCP) 4.5 medium-low warming scenario, the projected climate conditions will decrease habitat connectivity by 78%. Overall, suitable habitats for K. septemlobus populations will likely become more isolated depending on the severity of global warming. The approach presented here can be used to efficiently assess species and habitat vulnerability to climate change.     

Predicting the distributions of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana tree species under current and future climate change scenarios in Ethiopia

Distributions of potential ranges of plant species are not yet fully known in Ethiopia where high climatic variability and vegetation types are found. This study was undertaken to predict distributions of suitable habitats of Pouteria adolfi-friederici and Prunus africana under current and two future climate scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050 and 2070) in Ethiopia. Eleven environmental variables with less correlation coefficients (r < 0.7) were used to make the prediction. Shifting in extents of habitat suitability and effects of elevation, solar radiation and topographic position in relation to the current and future climatic scenarios were statistically analysed using independent t-test and linear model. We found decreasing area of highly suitable habitat from 0.51% to 0.46%, 0.36% and 0.33%, 0.24% for Prunus africana and 1.13% to 1.02%, 0.77% and 0.76%, 0.60% for Pouteria adolfi-friederici, under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 by 2050 and 2070 respectively. Moist and dry afromontane forests are identified as the most suitable habitat for both species. Overall, our results suggest that climate change can promote dynamic suitable habitat niches under different future climate scenarios. Therefore, biodiversity conservation strategies should take into account habitat suitability dynamics issues and identify where to conserve species before implementing conservation practices.     

Risky future for Mediterranean forests unless they undergo extreme carbon fertilization

Forest performance is challenged by climate change but higher atmospheric [CO₂] (c_a) could help trees mitigate the negative effect of enhanced water stress. Forest projections using data assimilation with mechanistic models are a valuable tool to assess forest performance. Firstly, we used dendrochronological data from 12 Mediterranean tree species (six conifers and six broadleaves) to calibrate a process‐based vegetation model at 77 sites. Secondly, we conducted simulations of gross primary production (GPP) and radial growth using an ensemble of climate projections for the period 2010–2100 for the high‐emission RCP8.5 and low‐emission RCP2.6 scenarios. GPP and growth projections were simulated using climatic data from the two RCPs combined with (i) expected c_a; (ii) constant c_a = 390 ppm, to test a purely climate‐driven performance excluding compensation from carbon fertilization. The model accurately mimicked the growth trends since the 1950s when, despite increasing c_a, enhanced evaporative demands precluded a global net positive effect on growth. Modeled annual growth and GPP showed similar long‐term trends. Under RCP2.6 (i.e., temperatures below +2 °C with respect to preindustrial values), the forests showed resistance to future climate (as expressed by non‐negative trends in growth and GPP) except for some coniferous sites. Using exponentially growing c_a and climate as from RCP8.5, carbon fertilization overrode the negative effect of the highly constraining climatic conditions under that scenario. This effect was particularly evident above 500 ppm (which is already over +2 °C), which seems unrealistic and likely reflects model miss‐performance at high c_a above the calibration range. Thus, forest projections under RCP8.5 preventing carbon fertilization displayed very negative forest performance at the regional scale. This suggests that most of western Mediterranean forests would successfully acclimate to the coldest climate change scenario but be vulnerable to a climate warmer than +2 °C unless the trees developed an exaggerated fertilization response to [CO₂].     

Areas of China predicted to have a suitable climate for Anoplophora chinensis under a climate‐warming scenario

Anoplophora chinensis (Forster) (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an A1 class quarantine pest, native to China, Japan, and North Korea. The A. chinensis outbreak in China has severely affected the local environment and economic development. This study investigates potential areas in China with suitable climate for A. chinensis using historical climate data (1971–2000) and future climate‐warming estimates generated by CLIMEX1.1. These future estimates are based on simulated climate data (2010–2039) provided by the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research (TYN SC 2.0). The results suggest that a wide area of China will have a climate suitable for A. chinensis, and every province may contain some suitable areas for this pest. The predicted areas are distributed primarily in central and southern China, with an estimated distribution range of 18.2–49.5°N and 81.3–135.0°E. Using a global‐warming scenario and predictions based on historical climate data, the areas in China with a climate generally suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to decline, whereas the areas that are highly suitable for A. chinensis are predicted to expand particularly to the northeast and northwest. The estimated distribution range covered 18.2–49.1°N and 73.6–135.0°E. Anoplophora chinensis hosts grow in much of China; therefore, the pest could possibly establish this entire predicted area. These results support enhanced quarantine and control measures combined with stronger monitoring systems to prevent the spread and export of A. chinensis.     

未来气候变化对粤港澳地区杜鹃花适生区的影响

位于我国南方丘陵的粤港澳地区拥有丰富杜鹃花资源,长期以来受杜鹃花不适宜在高温低海拔地区进行开发利用等思想的影响,该区域野生杜鹃花的开发、保护与利用研究寥寥无几,但低海拔野生杜鹃花在气候变化下正面临较高灭绝风险。基于粤港澳地区杜鹃花属(Rhododendron)14个筛选后的野生物种229个标本点位数据,利用最大熵模型(Maxent)模拟粤港澳地区野生杜鹃花在2070年低、中、高3种温室气体排放模式(RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5)下的适生区范围大小与方向的变化及其主导环境变量。研究发现未来粤港澳地区野生杜鹃花的适生区范围整体呈缩小趋势,且随着温室气体排放浓度的增加,即从RCP2.6到RCP8.5,越来越多杜鹃花物种适生区呈现向高纬度、高海拔方向迁移的趋势;对杜鹃花分布影响最大的变量为最冷月的最低温、温度季节性和最干月降水量。本研究通过探究气候变化对野生杜鹃花适生区范围的影响,以期为粤港澳地区野生杜鹃花的保护与开发利用提供科学指导。     

Invasive fountain grass (Pennisetum setaceum (Forssk.) Chiov.) increases its potential area of distribution in Tenerife island under future climatic scenarios

Mapping the distribution of invasive species under current and future climate conditions is crucial to implement sustainable and effective conservation strategies. Several studies showed how invasive species may benefit from climate change fostering their invasion rate and, consequently, affecting the native species community. In the Canary Islands and on Tenerife in particular, previous research mostly focused on climate change impacts on the native communities, whereas less attention has been paid on alien species distribution under climate change scenarios. In this study, we modelled the habitat distribution of Pennisetum setaceum, one of the most invasive alien species on Tenerife. In addition, we described the species’ potential distribution shift in the light of two climate change scenarios (RCP2.6, RCP8.5), highlighting the areas that should be prioritized during management and eradication programs. P. setaceum’s suitable areas are located in the coastal area, with higher habitat suitability near cities and below 800 m asl. In both future climate change scenarios, the geographic distribution of P. setaceum suitable areas is characterized by an elevational shift, which is more pronounced in the RCP8.5 scenario. Despite being drought resistant, water supply is crucial for the species’ seed germination, thus supporting future species’ shift to higher elevation and in the north–north–west part of the island, where it could benefit from the combined effect of orographic precipitations and humidity carried by trade winds.

     

气候变化对孑遗植物银杉的潜在分布及生境破碎度的影响

以孑遗植物银杉(Cathaya argyrophylla Chun et Kuang)为研究对象,选取65个地理分布记录和19个生物气候因子(bio1—bio19),利用MaxEnt模型预测四种不同浓度路径下(RCP 2.6、RCP 4.5、RCP 6.0和RCP 8.5),银杉在2050s和2070s两个年代的潜在分布变化,并利用景观指数对气候变化情景下银杉适宜生境空间格局特征转变及生境破碎度变化进行分析。结果表明:在当前气候情景下,银杉适宜生境面积约占研究区面积的14.32%,主要分布于北纬24°—32°、东经105°—114°之间,位于四川盆地东南地区、云贵高原东北地区、南岭西段地区以及浙闽丘陵的北部地区。在未来不同气候情景下,银杉适宜生境变化特征显著,面积呈增加趋势,形状上整体呈四周向中间聚集。气候变化对银杉适宜生境的景观指数影响主要表现在斑块数量增多、斑块密度增加、面积加权平均形状指数变大,对分离度与聚散性影响较小;气候变化对银杉生境破碎化程度的影响表现在破碎化两极现象减弱,总体破碎化程度加剧。研究选取7个景观指数并结合PCA法得到综合的破碎度指数来定量分析银杉适宜生境破碎化程度变化,相比单一指标的定量评价和多个指标的定性分析,更能代表银杉生境的实际破碎化程度。     

全球气候变化下贵州省青冈林的潜在生境动态

为了解贵州省青冈林在全球气候变化下的潜在分布特征,基于现状分布数据,结合当前气候数据和未来气候变化情景(RCP8.5情景,2070-2099年)构建Maxent潜在分布模型,预测贵州省青冈林的潜在分布变化。结果表明,最冷季均温(bio11)、最冷月最低温度(bio6)和年均降水量(bio12)为控制贵州省青冈林潜在生境的主导气候因子;RCP8.5情景下贵州省青冈林的潜在分布面积相较当前气候条件增加,中度适宜生境增加19 419 km2,高度适宜生境增加9 944 km2;中度适宜生境平均海拔较当前气候条件上升126 m,高度适宜生境平均上升85 m。总的来说,贵州省青冈林对全球气候变化的响应不十分敏感。     

Upward elevation and northwest range shifts for alpine Meconopsis species in the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains region

Climate change may impact the distribution of species by shifting their ranges to higher elevations or higher latitudes. The impacts on alpine plant species may be particularly profound due to a potential lack of availability of future suitable habitat. To identify how alpine species have responded to climate change during the past century as well as to predict how they may react to possible global climate change scenarios in the future, we investigate the climatic responses of seven species of Meconopsis, a representative genus endemic in the alpine meadow and subnival region of the Himalaya–Hengduan Mountains. We analyzed past elevational shifts, as well as projected shifts in longitude, latitude, elevation, and range size using historical specimen records and species distribution modeling under optimistic (RCP 4.5) and pessimistic (RCP 8.5) scenarios across three general circulation models for 2070. Our results indicate that across all seven species, there has been an upward shift in mean elevation of 302.3 m between the pre‐1970s (1922–1969) and the post‐1970s (1970–2016). The model predictions suggest that the future suitable climate space will continue to shift upwards in elevation (as well as northwards and westwards) by 2070. While for most of the analyzed species, the area of suitable climate space is predicted to expand under the optimistic emission scenario, the area contracts, or, at best, shows little change under the pessimistic scenario. Species such as M. punicea, which already occupy high latitudes, are consistently predicted to experience a contraction of suitable climate space across all the models by 2070 and may consequently deserve particular attention by conservation strategies. Collectively, our results suggest that the alpine high‐latitude species analyzed here have already been significantly impacted by climate change and that these trends may continue over the coming decades.     

Warming and hypoxia threaten a valuable scallop fishery: A warning for commercial bivalve ventures in climate change hotspots

Marine molluscs constitute the second largest marine fishery and are often caught in coastal and estuarine habitats. Temperature is increasing in these habitats at a rate greater than predicted, especially in warming “hotspots”. This warming is accompanied by hypoxia in a duo of stressors that threatens coastal mollusc fisheries and aquaculture. Collapses of the northern bay scallop (Argopecten irradians irradians) fisheries on the Atlantic coast of the USA are likely to be driven by rapid rates of coastal warming and may provide an ominous glimpse into the prospects of other coastal mollusc fisheries in climate warming hotspots.     

Satellite data identify decadal trends in the quality of Pygoscelis penguin chick‐rearing habitat

Pygoscelis penguins are experiencing general population declines in their northernmost range whereas there are reported increases in their southernmost range. These changes are coincident with decadal‐scale trends in remote sensed observations of sea ice concentrations (SIC) and sea surface temperatures (SST) during the chick‐rearing season (austral summer). Using SIC, SST, and bathymetry, we identified separate chick‐rearing niche spaces for the three Pygoscelis penguin species and used a maximum entropy approach (MaxEnt) to spatially and temporally model suitable chick‐rearing habitats in the Southern Ocean. For all Pygoscelis penguin species, the MaxEnt models predict significant changes in the locations of suitable chick‐rearing habitats over the period of 1982–2010. In general, chick‐rearing habitat suitability at specific colony locations agreed with the corresponding increases or decreases in documented population trends over the same time period. These changes were the most pronounced along the West Antarctic Peninsula where there has been a rapid warming event during at least the last 50 years.     

Grazing intensifies degradation of a Tibetan Plateau alpine meadow through plant–pest interaction

Understanding the plant–pest interaction under warming with grazing conditions is critical to predict the response of alpine meadow to future climate change. We investigated the effects of experimental warming and grazing on the interaction between plants and the grassland caterpillar Gynaephora menyuanensis in an alpine meadow on the Tibetan Plateau in 2010 and 2011. Our results showed that grazing significantly increased nitrogen concentration in graminoids and sward openness with a lower sward height, sward coverage, and plant litter mass in the community. Grazing significantly increased G. menyuanensis body size and potential fecundity in 2010. The increases in female body size were about twofold greater than in males. In addition, grazing significantly increased G. menyuanensis density and its negative effects on aboveground biomass and graminoid coverage in 2011. We found that G. menyuanensis body size was significantly positively correlated with nitrogen concentration in graminoids but negatively correlated with plant litter mass. Even though warming did not significantly increased G. menyuanensis performance and the negative effects of G. menyuanensis on alpine meadow, the increases in G. menyuanensis growth rate and its negative effect on aboveground biomass under the warming with grazing treatment were significantly higher than those under the no warming with grazing treatment. The positive effects of grazing on G. menyuanensis performance and its damage were exacerbated by the warming treatment. Our results suggest that the fitness of G. menyuanensis would increase under future warming with grazing conditions, thereby posing a greater risk to alpine meadow and livestock production.     

Reproducing under a warming climate: long winter flowering and extended flower longevity in the only Mediterranean and maritime Primula

Under the pressure of global warming, general expectations of species migration and evolution of adaptive traits should always be confirmed with species‐specific studies. Within this framework, some species can be used as study systems to predict possible consequences of global warming also on other relatives. Unlike its mountain congeneric, Primula palinuri Petagn. has endured all the climatic fluctuations since the Pleistocene, while surviving on Mediterranean coastal cliffs. The aim of this work was to investigate the possible evolution of reproductive biological and ecological traits in P. palinuri adaptation to a warmer environment. Data showed that flowering starts in mid‐winter; single flowers remain open for over a month, changing from pendulous to erect. The number of insects visiting flowers of P. palinuri increases during the flowering season, and pollination reduces flower longevity. Overall, the best pollen performances, in terms of viability and germinability, occur at winter temperatures, while pollinator activity prolongs flowering until spring. Moreover, extended longevity of single flowers optimises reproductive success. Both phenotypic plasticity and selective processes might have occurred in P. palinuri. However, we found that reproductive traits of the only Mediterranean Primula remain more associated with cold mountain habitats than warm coastal cliffs. Given the rapid trend of climate warming, migration and new adaptive processes in P. palinuri are unlikely. Response to past climate warming of P. palinuri provides useful indications for future scenarios in other Primula species.     

美味猕猴桃地理分布模拟与气候变化影响分析

为了解气候变化对美味猕猴桃(Actinidia deliciosa)地理分布的影响,结合气候情景,采用Maxent预测美味猕猴桃的适生区的变化趋势。结果表明,基准气候和未来情景下构建的美味猕猴桃分布模型的AUC值均达到极好的标准。基准气候条件下,美味猕猴桃在中国的适生区为22°~38°N,96°~122°E,总面积为3.367 9×106 km2,高适生区位于秦岭-巴山、四川盆地东部、云贵高原东部、武陵山-巫山、武夷山脉。RCP4.5和RCP8.5情景下,美味猕猴桃在中国的高适生区面积将显著减少,中适生区面积则呈增加趋势,两种情景下高、中质心均向偏南或低纬度方向移动,RCP8.5情景下质心的迁移轨迹最长,变动范围最大。Maxent模型的准确预测对于优化猕猴桃产业结构具有重要指导意义。