Effects of changing climate on aquatic habitat and connectivity for remnant populations of a wide‐ranging frog species in an arid landscape

Amphibian species persisting in isolated streams and wetlands in desert environments can be susceptible to low connectivity, genetic isolation, and climate changes. We evaluated the past (1900–1930), recent (1981–2010), and future (2071–2100) climate suitability of the arid Great Basin (USA) for the Columbia spotted frog (Rana luteiventris) and assessed whether changes in surface water may affect connectivity for remaining populations. We developed a predictive model of current climate suitability and used it to predict the historic and future distribution of suitable climates. We then modeled changes in surface water availability at each time period. Finally, we quantified connectivity among existing populations on the basis of hydrology and correlated it with interpopulation genetic distance. We found that the area of the Great Basin with suitable climate conditions has declined by approximately 49% over the last century and will likely continue to decline under future climate scenarios. Climate conditions at currently occupied locations have been relatively stable over the last century, which may explain persistence at these sites. However, future climates at these currently occupied locations are predicted to become warmer throughout the year and drier during the frog's activity period (May – September). Fall and winter precipitation may increase, but as rain instead of snow. Earlier runoff and lower summer base flows may reduce connectivity between neighboring populations, which is already limited. Many of these changes could have negative effects on remaining populations over the next 50–80 years, but milder winters, longer growing seasons, and wetter falls might positively affect survival and dispersal. Collectively, however, seasonal shifts in temperature, precipitation, and stream flow patterns could reduce habitat suitability and connectivity for frogs and possibly other aquatic species inhabiting streams in this arid region.     

Hybridization between two parapatric ranid frog species in the northern Sierra Nevada,California, USA

Contact zones between species provide a unique opportunity to test whether taxa can hybridize or not. Cross‐breeding or hybridization between closely related taxa can promote gene flow (introgression) between species, adaptation, or even speciation. Though hybridization events may be short‐lived and difficult to detect in the field, genetic data can provide information about the level of introgression between closely related taxa. Hybridization can promote introgression between species, which may be an important evolutionary mechanism for either homogenization (reversing initial divergence between species) or reproductive isolation (potentially leading to speciation). Here, we used thousands of genetic markers from nuclear DNA to detect hybridization between two parapatric frog species (Rana boylii and Rana sierrae) in the Sierra Nevada of California. Based on principal components analysis, admixture, and analysis of heterozygosity at species diagnostic SNPs, we detected two F1 hybrid individuals in the Feather River basin, as well as a weak signal of introgression and gene flow between the frog species compared with frog populations from two other adjacent watersheds. This study provides the first documentation of hybridization and introgression between these two species, which are of conservation concern.     

Leap frog in slow motion: Divergent responses of tree species and life stages to climatic warming in Great Basin subalpine forests

In response to climate warming, subalpine treelines are expected to move up in elevation since treelines are generally controlled by growing season temperature. Where treeline is advancing, dispersal differences and early life stage environmental tolerances are likely to affect how species expand their ranges. Species with an establishment advantage will colonize newly available habitat first, potentially excluding species that have slower establishment rates. Using a network of plots across five mountain ranges, we described patterns of upslope elevational range shift for the two dominant Great Basin subalpine species, limber pine and Great Basin bristlecone pine. We found that the Great Basin treeline for these species is expanding upslope with a mean vertical elevation shift of 19.1 m since 1950, which is lower than what we might expect based on temperature increases alone. The largest advances were on limber pine‐dominated granitic soils, on west aspects, and at lower latitudes. Bristlecone pine juveniles establishing above treeline share some environmental associations with bristlecone adults. Limber pine above‐treeline juveniles, in contrast, are prevalent across environmental conditions and share few environmental associations with limber pine adults. Strikingly, limber pine is establishing above treeline throughout the region without regard to site characteristic such as soil type, slope, aspect, or soil texture. Although limber pine is often rare at treeline where it coexists with bristlecone pine, limber pine juveniles dominate above treeline even on calcareous soils that are core bristlecone pine habitat. Limber pine is successfully “leap‐frogging” over bristlecone pine, probably because of its strong dispersal advantage and broader tolerances for establishment. This early‐stage dominance indicates the potential for the species composition of treeline to change in response to climate change. More broadly, it shows how species differences in dispersal and establishment may result in future communities with very different specific composition.     

Evolutionary history of the northern leopard frog: reconstruction of phylogeny, phylogeography, and historical changes in population demography from mitochondrial DNA

This study uses a combined methodological approach including phylogenetic, phylogeographic, and demographic analyses to understand the evolutionary history of the northern leopard frog, Rana pipiens. We tested hypotheses concerning how (or if) known geological events and key features of the species biology influenced the contemporary geographic and genetic distribution of R. pipiens. We assayed mitochondrial DNA variation from 389 individuals within 35 populations located throughout the species range. Our a priori expectations for patterns and processes influencing the current genetic structure of R. pipiens were supported by the data. However, our analyses revealed specific aspects of R. pipiens evolutionary history that were unexpected. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that R. pipiens is split into populations containing discrete eastern or western haplotypes, with the Mississippi River and Great Lakes region dividing the geographic ranges. Nested clade analysis indicated that the biological process most often invoked to explain the pattern of haplotype position is restricted gene flow with isolation by distance. Demographic analyses showed evidence of both historical bottlenecks and population expansions. Surprisingly, the genetic evidence indicated that the western haplotypes had significantly reduced levels of genetic diversity relative to the eastern haplotypes and that major range expansions occurred in both regions well before the most recent glacial retreat. This study provides a detailed history of how a widespread terrestrial vertebrate responded to episodic Pleistocene glacial events in North America. Moreover, this study illustrates how complementary methods of data analysis can be used to disentangle recent and ancient effects on the genetic structure of a species.     

Habitat selection by wintering male and female Snowy Owls on the Canadian prairies in relation to prey abundance and a competitor,the Great Horned Owl

Birds overwintering at high latitudes may find it challenging to meet their energy budgets when thermoregulatory costs are high and food availability is low. Snowy Owls (Bubo scandiacus), like most raptors, exhibit reversed sexual size dimorphism, so , if availability of high‐quality (food‐rich) habitats is limited, we predicted that larger and dominant females would use better ‐ quality habitat than males. During the winters of 2014–2015 and 2015–2016 in Saskatchewan , where many Snowy Owls overwinter annually, we measured prey (small mammal) abundance in fields with four types of cover, including cut stalks (stubble) of canola, grain and legume crops, and pasture, and related this estimate of quality to habitat selection by males and females. Small mammal abundance varied annually , but not among the three types of crop stubble. However, prey were less abundant in pastures than in the three types of crop cover in one of three years. Biweekly surveys of owls conducted during the two winters along a 60 ‐ km transect revealed weak selection for legume fields, especially by males. The home ranges of nine females with transmitters included proportionally less canola stubble than those of eight males with transmitters. Within home ranges, males avoided canola stubble and tended to use legume fields more, whereas females used all four habitat types in proportion to availability. Fewer Snowy Owls than expected were observed at locations along the transect within 800 m of Great Horned Owls (Bubo virginianus) and their associated habitats , suggesting that Snowy Owls also avoided these potential competitors on the landscape. Our results suggest that larger females outcompete smaller male Snowy Owls for home ranges in preferred habitat with less canola stubble because stubble‐free legume fields provide easier access to prey than canola fields with numerous rigid stalks.     

Historical and recent processes shaping the geographic range of a rocky intertidal gastropod: phylogeography,ecology, and habitat availability

Factors shaping the geographic range of a species can be identified when phylogeographic patterns are combined with data on contemporary and historical geographic distribution, range‐wide abundance, habitat/food availability, and through comparisons with codistributed taxa. Here, we evaluate range dynamism and phylogeography of the rocky intertidal gastropod Mexacanthina lugubris lugubris across its geographic range – the Pacific coast of the Baja peninsula and southern California. We sequenced mitochondrial DNA (CO1) from ten populations and compliment these data with museum records, habitat availability and range‐wide field surveys of the distribution and abundance of M. l. lugubris and its primary prey (the barnacle Chthamalus fissus). The geographic range of M. l. lugubris can be characterized by three different events in its history: an old sundering in the mid‐peninsular region of Baja (~ 417,000 years ago) and more recent northern range expansion and southern range contraction. The mid‐peninsular break is shared with many terrestrial and marine species, although M. l. lugubris represents the first mollusc to show it. This common break is often attributed to a hypothesized ancient seaway bisecting the peninsula, but for M. l. lugubris it may result from large habitat gaps in the southern clade. Northern clade populations, particularly near the historical northern limit (prior to the 1970s), have high local abundances and reside in a region with plentiful food and habitat – which makes its northern range conducive to expansion. The observed southern range contraction may result from the opposite scenario, with little food or habitat nearby. Our study highlights the importance of taking an integrative approach to understanding the processes that shape the geographic range of a species via combining range‐wide phylogeography data with temporal geographic distributions and spatial patterns of habitat/food availability.     

Water availability drives signatures of local adaptation in whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) across fine spatial scales of the Lake Tahoe Basin,USA

Patterns of local adaptation at fine spatial scales are central to understanding how evolution proceeds, and are essential to the effective management of economically and ecologically important forest tree species. Here, we employ single and multilocus analyses of genetic data (n = 116 231 SNPs) to describe signatures of fine‐scale adaptation within eight whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis Engelm.) populations across the local extent of the environmentally heterogeneous Lake Tahoe Basin, USA. We show that despite highly shared genetic variation (F_ST = 0.0069), there is strong evidence for adaptation to the rain shadow experienced across the eastern Sierra Nevada. Specifically, we build upon evidence from a common garden study and find that allele frequencies of loci associated with four phenotypes (mean = 236 SNPs), 18 environmental variables (mean = 99 SNPs), and those detected through genetic differentiation (n = 110 SNPs) exhibit significantly higher signals of selection (covariance of allele frequencies) than could be expected to arise, given the data. We also provide evidence that this covariance tracks environmental measures related to soil water availability through subtle allele frequency shifts across populations. Our results replicate empirical support for theoretical expectations of local adaptation for populations exhibiting strong gene flow and high selective pressures and suggest that ongoing adaptation of many P. albicaulis populations within the Lake Tahoe Basin will not be constrained by the lack of genetic variation. Even so, some populations exhibit low levels of heritability for the traits presumed to be related to fitness. These instances could be used to prioritize management to maintain adaptive potential. Overall, we suggest that established practices regarding whitebark pine conservation be maintained, with the additional context of fine‐scale adaptation.     

How climate,migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech

Recent efforts to incorporate migration processes into species distribution models (SDMs) are allowing assessments of whether species are likely to be able to track their future climate optimum and the possible causes of failing to do so. Here, we projected the range shift of European beech over the 21st century using a process‐based SDM coupled to a phenomenological migration model accounting for population dynamics, according to two climate change scenarios and one land use change scenario. Our model predicts that the climatically suitable habitat for European beech will shift north‐eastward and upward mainly because (i) higher temperature and precipitation, at the northern range margins, will increase survival and fruit maturation success, while (ii) lower precipitations and higher winter temperature, at the southern range margins, will increase drought mortality and prevent bud dormancy breaking. Beech colonization rate of newly climatically suitable habitats in 2100 is projected to be very low (1–2% of the newly suitable habitats colonised). Unexpectedly, the projected realized contraction rate was higher than the projected potential contraction rate. As a result, the realized distribution of beech is projected to strongly contract by 2100 (by 36–61%) mainly due to a substantial increase in climate variability after 2050, which generates local extinctions, even at the core of the distribution, the frequency of which prevents beech recolonization during more favourable years. Although European beech will be able to persist in some parts of the trailing edge of its distribution, the combined effects of climate and land use changes, limited migration ability, and a slow life‐history are likely to increase its threat status in the near future.     

Ecological niche modelling of montane mammals in the Great Basin, North America: examining past and present connectivity of species across basins and ranges

Aim The goal of this study was to determine the extent of suitable habitats across the basins and ranges of the Great Basin for 13 montane mammals in the present and during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM). For all these mammal species, we test whether: (1) more suitable habitat was available in basin areas during the LGM; (2) suitable habitat shifted upwards in elevation between the LGM and the present; (3) more ranges have suitable habitat than are currently occupied; and (4) these species are currently restricted to suitable habitats at higher‐elevation range areas. We also examine whether and how much distributional response varies among these montane mammal species. Location The Great Basin of western North America. Methods We re‐examine the past and present distributions of 13 Great Basin montane mammals using ecological niche modelling techniques that utilize now widely available species occurrence data and new, fine‐scale past climatological GIS layers in the present and at the LGM. These methods provide an objective, repeatable means for visual comparison of past and present modelled distributions for species examined in previous biogeographical studies. Results Our results indicate greater areal and lower elevational suitable habitat in the LGM than at present for nearly all montane mammals, and that there is more suitable habitat at present than is currently occupied. Our results also show that lowland areas provide suitable dispersal routes between ranges for most of the montane mammals both at the LGM and at present. However, three of the 13 species have little to no predicted suitable habitat in the LGM near currently occupied ranges, in contrast to the pattern for the other 10. For these species, the model results support more recent long‐distance colonization. Main conclusions Our finding of suitable lowland dispersal routes in the present for most species supports and greatly extends similar findings from single‐species studies. Our results also provide a visually striking confirmation that changes in species distribution and colonization histories of Great Basin montane mammals vary in a fashion related to the tolerances and requirements of each of these species; this has previously been hypothesized but not rigorously tested for multiple montane mammals in the region.     

Geographic variation in seed traits within and among forty‐two species of Rhododendron (Ericaceae) on the Tibetan plateau: relationships with altitude,habitat, plant height,and phylogeny

Seed mass and morphology are plant life history traits that influence seed dispersal ability, seeding establishment success, and population distribution pattern. Southeastern Tibet is a diversity center for Rhododendron species, which are distributed from a few hundred meters to 5500 m above sea level. We examined intra‐ and interspecific variation in seed mass and morphology in relation to altitude, habitat, plant height, and phylogeny. Seed mass decreased significantly with the increasing altitude and increased significantly with increasing plant height among populations of the same species. Seed mass differed significantly among species and subsections, but not among sections and subgenera. Seed length, width, surface area, and wing length were significantly negative correlated with altitude and significantly positive correlated with plant height. Further, these traits differed significantly among habitats and varied among species and subsection, but not among sections and subgenera. Species at low elevation had larger seeds with larger wings, and seeds became smaller and the wings of seeds tended to be smaller with the increasing altitude. Morphology of the seed varied from flat round to long cylindrical with increasing altitude. We suggest that seed mass and morphology have evolved as a result of both long‐term adaptation and constraints of the taxonomic group over their long evolutionary history.     

Phylogeographic structure in long‐tailed voles (Rodentia: Arvicolinae) belies the complex Pleistocene history of isolation,divergence, and recolonization of Northwest North America's fauna

Quaternary climate fluctuations restructured biodiversity across North American high latitudes through repeated episodes of range contraction, population isolation and divergence, and subsequent expansion. Identifying how species responded to changing environmental conditions not only allows us to explore the mode and tempo of evolution in northern taxa, but also provides a basis for forecasting future biotic response across the highly variable topography of western North America. Using a multilocus approach under a Bayesian coalescent framework, we investigated the phylogeography of a wide‐ranging mammal, the long‐tailed vole, Microtus longicaudus. We focused on populations along the North Pacific Coast to refine our understanding of diversification by exploring the potentially compounding roles of multiple glacial refugia and more recent fragmentation of an extensive coastal archipelago. Through a combination of genetic data and species distribution models (SDMs), we found that historical climate variability influenced contemporary genetic structure, with multiple isolated locations of persistence (refugia) producing multiple divergent lineages (Beringian or northern, southeast Alaska or coastal, and southern or continental) during glacial advances. These vole lineages all occur along the North Pacific Coast where the confluence of numerous independent lineages in other species has produced overlapping zones of secondary contact, collectively a suture zone. Finally, we detected high levels of neoendemism due to complex island geography that developed in the last 10,000 years with the rising sea levels of the Holocene.     

Mechanistic variables can enhance predictive models of endotherm distributions: the American pika under current,past, and future climates

How climate constrains species’ distributions through time and space is an important question in the context of conservation planning for climate change. Despite increasing awareness of the need to incorporate mechanism into species distribution models (SDMs), mechanistic modeling of endotherm distributions remains limited in this literature. Using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as an example, we present a framework whereby mechanism can be incorporated into endotherm SDMs. Pika distribution has repeatedly been found to be constrained by warm temperatures, so we used Niche Mapper, a mechanistic heat‐balance model, to convert macroclimate data to pika‐specific surface activity time in summer across the western United States. We then explored the difference between using a macroclimate predictor (summer temperature) and using a mechanistic predictor (predicted surface activity time) in SDMs. Both approaches accurately predicted pika presences in current and past climate regimes. However, the activity models predicted 8–19% less habitat loss in response to annual temperature increases of ~3–5 °C predicted in the region by 2070, suggesting that pikas may be able to buffer some climate change effects through behavioral thermoregulation that can be captured by mechanistic modeling. Incorporating mechanism added value to the modeling by providing increased confidence in areas where different modeling approaches agreed and providing a range of outcomes in areas of disagreement. It also provided a more proximate variable relating animal distribution to climate, allowing investigations into how unique habitat characteristics and intraspecific phenotypic variation may allow pikas to exist in areas outside those predicted by generic SDMs. Only a small number of easily obtainable data are required to parameterize this mechanistic model for any endotherm, and its use can improve SDM predictions by explicitly modeling a widely applicable direct physiological effect: climate‐imposed restrictions on activity. This more complete understanding is necessary to inform climate adaptation actions, management strategies, and conservation plans.