Climate Change and War Frequency in Eastern China over the Last Millennium

We explore the association between climate change and warfare in eastern China over the past millennium from a macro-historic perspective. High-resolution palaeo-temperature reconstructions and the complete record of warfare incidence in eastern China were compared. Results show that warfare frequency in eastern China (its southern portion in particular) significantly correlated with the Northern Hemisphere temperature oscillations. Almost all peaks of warfare frequency and dynastic changes occurred in cooling phases. We suggest that in historic China, the reduction of thermal energy during cooling phases significantly shrank agricultural production. Such ecological stress interacted with population pressure and China’s unique historic and geographic setting to bring about the high frequencies of warfare over the last millennium. We recommend scholars take climate change into account as they consider the anthropology of warfare in the historic past.     

Climate Change and Health Research in the Eastern Mediterranean Region

Anthropologically induced climate change, caused by an increased concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, is an emerging threat to human health. Consequences of climate change may affect the prevalence of various diseases and environmental and social maladies that affect population health. In this article, we reviewed the literature on climate change and health in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. This region already faces numerous humanitarian crises, from conflicts to natural hazards and a high burden of disease. Climate change is likely to aggravate these emergencies, necessitating a strengthening of health systems and capacities in the region. However, the existing literature on climate change from the region is sparse and informational gaps stand in the way of regional preparedness and adaptation. Further research is needed to assess climatic changes and related health impacts in the Eastern Mediterranean Region. Such knowledge will allow countries to identify preparedness vulnerabilities, evaluate capacity to adapt to climate change, and develop adaptation strategies to allay the health impacts of climate change.     

Earthquakes as the Quintessential SCE: Methodology and Societal Resilience

This paper focuses on earthquakes as the most frequent type of SCE (short-term cataclysmic event) with signatures in the three main sources used to reconstruct the premodern environment, namely historical records, archaeological findings, and paleoclimate proxies. We examine methodological issues in archaeoseismology (including earthquake catalogs, statistics, and the measurement of societal resilience to earthquakes in premodern societies in the eastern Mediterranean), before investigating societal earthquake response in the region. The behavior of different groups within these societies, such as the central government or local elites, is assessed in this context. The regenerative or adaptive aspects of seismic events are demonstrated with consideration of their archaeological footprints. This paper concludes that complex societies in the Eastern Mediterranean during the past two millennia were largely resilient to earthquakes at the state-level, though local effects on the aspect and character of urban settlement could be more pronounced.     

Camels and Climate Resilience: Adaptation in Northern Kenya

In the drylands of Africa, pastoralists have been facing new challenges, including those related to environmental shocks and stresses. In northern Kenya, under conditions of reduced rainfall and more frequent droughts, one response has been for pastoralists to focus increasingly on camel herding. Camels have started to be kept at higher altitudes and by people who rarely kept camels before. The development has been understood as a climate change adaptation strategy and as a means to improve climate resilience. Since 2003, development organizations have started to further the trend by distributing camels in the region. Up to now, little has been known about the nature of, reasons for, or ramifications of the increased reliance on camels. The paper addresses these questions and concludes that camels improve resilience in this dryland region, but only under certain climate change scenarios, and only for some groups.     

Climate Change and Heat-Related Excess Mortality in the Eastern USA

Climate change will increase extreme heat-related health risks. To quantify the health impacts of mid-century climate change, we assess heat-related excess mortality across the eastern USA. Health risks are estimated using the US Environmental Protection Agency’s Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program (BenMAP). Mid-century temperature estimates, downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting model, are compared to 2007 temperatures at 36 km and 12 km resolutions. Models indicate the average apparent and actual summer temperatures rise by 4.5° and 3.3° C, respectively. Warmer average apparent temperatures could cause 11,562 additional annual deaths (95% confidence interval, CI: 2641–20,095) due to cardiovascular stress in the population aged 65 years and above, while higher minimum temperatures could cause 8767 (95% CI: 5030–12,475) additional deaths each year. Modeled future climate data available at both coarse (36 km) and fine (12 km) resolutions predict significant human health impacts from warmer climates. The findings suggest that currently available information on future climates is sufficient to guide regional planning for the protection of public health. Higher resolution climate and demographic data are still needed to inform more targeted interventions.     

Alien marine fishes deplete algal biomass in the Eastern Mediterranean

One of the most degraded states of the Mediterranean rocky infralittoral ecosystem is a barren composed solely of bare rock and patches of crustose coralline algae. Barrens are typically created by the grazing action of large sea urchin populations. In 2008 we observed extensive areas almost devoid of erect algae, where sea urchins were rare, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. To determine the origin of those urchin-less 'barrens', we conducted a fish exclusion experiment. We found that, in the absence of fish grazing, a well-developed algal assemblage grew within three months. Underwater fish censuses and observations suggest that two alien herbivorous fish from the Red Sea (Siganus luridus and S. rivulatus) are responsible for the creation and maintenance of these benthic communities with extremely low biomass. The shift from well-developed native algal assemblages to 'barrens' implies a dramatic decline in biogenic habitat complexity, biodiversity and biomass. A targeted Siganus fishery could help restore the macroalgal beds of the rocky infralittoral on the Turkish coast.     

Comparison of deep-sea sediment microbial communities in the Eastern Mediterranean

Bacterial and archaeal communities in sediments obtained from three geographically-distant mud volcanoes, a control site and a microbial mat in the Eastern Mediterranean deep-sea were characterized using direct 16S rRNA gene analyses. The data were thus in relation to the chemical characteristics of the (stratified) habitats to infer community structure-habitat relationships. The bacterial sequences in the different habitats were related to those of Actinobacteria, Bacilli, Chloroflexi, Alpha-, Beta-, Gamma-, Delta- and Epsilonproteobacteria and unclassified bacteria, including the JS1 group. The archaeal sequences found were affiliated with those of the Methanosarcinales, Thermoplasmales, Halobacteriales and Crenarchaea belonging to marine benthic group I and B, as well as MCG group archaea. In each sample, the communities were diverse and unique at the phylotype level. However, at higher taxonomic levels, similar groups were found in different sediments, and similar depth layers tended to contain similar communities. The sequences that dominated in all top layers (as well as in the mat) probably represented organisms involved in aerobic heterotrophy, sulfide-based chemoautotrophy and methanotrophy and/or methylotrophy. Sequences of organisms most likely involved in anaerobic methane oxidation, sulfate reduction and anaerobic heterotrophy were predominantly found in deeper layers. The data supported the notion of (1) uniqueness of each habitat at fine taxonomic levels, (2) stratification in depth and (3) conservation of function in the sediments.     

Viral density and virus-to-bacterium ratio in deep-sea sediments of the Eastern Mediterranean

Viruses are now recognized as a key component in pelagic systems, but their role in marine sediment has yet to be assessed. In this study bacterial and viral densities were determined at nine deep-sea stations selected from three main sites (i.e., the Sporades Basin, the Cretan Sea, and the Ierapetra Trench at depths of 1,232, 1,840, and 4,235 m, respectively) of the Eastern Mediterranean. The three areas were characterized by different phytopigment and biopolymeric carbon concentrations and by changes in the protein and carbohydrate pools. A gradient of increasing trophic conditions was observed from the Sporades Basin (North Aegean) to the Ierapetra Trench (South Aegean). Viral densities (ranging from 1 x 10(9) to 2 x 10(9) viruses ml of sediment(-1)) were significantly correlated to bacterial densities (n = 9, r(2) = 0.647) and reached values up to 3 orders of magnitude higher than those generally reported for the water column. However, the virus-to-bacterium density ratio in deep-sea sediments was about 1 order of magnitude lower (range of 2 to 5, with a modal value of 2.6) than in pelagic environments. Virus density decreased vertically with depth in sediment cores at all stations and was below detection limits at the 10-cm depth of the abyssal sediments of the Ierapetra Trench. Virus density in the sediment apparently reflected a gradient of particle fluxes and trophic conditions, displaying the highest values in the Sporades Basin. The low virus-to-bacterium ratios and their inverse relationship with station depth suggest that the role played by viruses in controlling deep-sea benthic bacterial assemblages and biogeochemical cycles is less relevant than in pelagic systems.     

Viral Density and Virus-to-Bacterium Ratio in Deep-Sea Sediments of the Eastern Mediterranean

Viruses are now recognized as a key component in pelagic systems, but their role in marine sediment has yet to be assessed. In this study bacterial and viral densities were determined at nine deep-sea stations selected from three main sites (i.e., the Sporades Basin, the Cretan Sea, and the Ierapetra Trench at depths of 1,232, 1,840, and 4,235 m, respectively) of the Eastern Mediterranean. The three areas were characterized by different phytopigment and biopolymeric carbon concentrations and by changes in the protein and carbohydrate pools. A gradient of increasing trophic conditions was observed from the Sporades Basin (North Aegean) to the Ierapetra Trench (South Aegean). Viral densities (ranging from 1 × 10⁹ to 2 × 10⁹ viruses ml of sediment⁻¹) were significantly correlated to bacterial densities (n = 9, r² = 0.647) and reached values up to 3 orders of magnitude higher than those generally reported for the water column. However, the virus-to-bacterium density ratio in deep-sea sediments was about 1 order of magnitude lower (range of 2 to 5, with a modal value of 2.6) than in pelagic environments. Virus density decreased vertically with depth in sediment cores at all stations and was below detection limits at the 10-cm depth of the abyssal sediments of the Ierapetra Trench. Virus density in the sediment apparently reflected a gradient of particle fluxes and trophic conditions, displaying the highest values in the Sporades Basin. The low virus-to-bacterium ratios and their inverse relationship with station depth suggest that the role played by viruses in controlling deep-sea benthic bacterial assemblages and biogeochemical cycles is less relevant than in pelagic systems.     

A long term trend in tooth size in the Eastern Mediterranean

Although estimates of brain weight are useless in prediction of individual intelligence in man, the available data (none of them entirely adequate) suggest that the real correlation may be as high as 0.3. Evaluation of causes suggests the participation of a direct effect. Natural selection on intelligence at a current estimated intensity suffices to explain the rapid rate of increase of brain size in human evolution. Selection on birth weight may also suffice for this. It does not seem overly difficult to estimate directly the relationships among brain weight, intelligence, and fitness.     

Isolation and characterisation of bacteria from the Eastern Mediterranean deep sea

The Eastern Mediterranean deep sea is one of the most oligotrophic regions in the world’s ocean. With the aim to classify bacteria from this special environment we isolated 107 strains affiliating to the Gammaproteobacteria, Alphaproteobacteria, Firmicutes, Actinobacteria and Bacteroidetes from sediments of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. As determined by 16S rRNA gene sequence analysis, Actinobacteria and Firmicutes, in particular members of the genus Bacillus, were dominant and represented a remarkable diversity with 27 out of a total of 33 operational taxonomic units obtained from the untreated sediment. The considerable percentage of operational taxonomic units (42%) which may be considered to be new species underlines the uniqueness of the studied environment. In order to selectively enrich bacteria which are adapted to the deep-sea conditions and tolerate broad pressure ranges, enrichments were set up with a sediment sample under in situ pressure and temperature (28 MPa, 13.5°C) using N-acetyl-d-glucosamine as substrate. Interestingly Gammaproteobacteria were significantly enriched and dominant among the strains isolated after pressure pre-incubation. Obviously, Gammaproteobacteria have a selective advantage under the enrichment conditions applied mimicking nutrient supply under pressure conditions and cope well with sudden changes of hydrostatic pressure. However, under the continued low nutrient situation in the Eastern Mediterranean deep-sea sediments apparently Firmicutes and Actinobacteria have a clear adaptative advantage.     

The Extratropical Northern Hemisphere Temperature Reconstruction during the Last Millennium Based on a Novel Method

Large-scale climate history of the past millennium reconstructed solely from tree-ring data is prone to underestimate the amplitude of low-frequency variability. In this paper, we aimed at solving this problem by utilizing a novel method termed “MDVM”, which was a combination of the ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and variance matching techniques. We compiled a set of 211 tree-ring records from the extratropical Northern Hemisphere (30–90°N) in an effort to develop a new reconstruction of the annual mean temperature by the MDVM method. Among these dataset, a number of 126 records were screened out to reconstruct temperature variability longer than decadal scale for the period 850–2000 AD. The MDVM reconstruction depicted significant low-frequency variability in the past millennium with evident Medieval Warm Period (MWP) over the interval 950–1150 AD and pronounced Little Ice Age (LIA) cumulating in 1450–1850 AD. In the context of 1150-year reconstruction, the accelerating warming in 20^th century was likely unprecedented, and the coldest decades appeared in the 1640s, 1600s and 1580s, whereas the warmest decades occurred in the 1990s, 1940s and 1930s. Additionally, the MDVM reconstruction covaried broadly with changes in natural radiative forcing, and especially showed distinct footprints of multiple volcanic eruptions in the last millennium. Comparisons of our results with previous reconstructions and model simulations showed the efficiency of the MDVM method on capturing low-frequency variability, particularly much colder signals of the LIA relative to the reference period. Our results demonstrated that the MDVM method has advantages in studying large-scale and low-frequency climate signals using pure tree-ring data.     

Pleistocene to Recent scleractinian deep-water corals and coral facies in the Eastern Mediterranean

Recent investigations of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea carried out during the GECO cruise with RV Urania provided a substantial number of new cold-water coral (CWC) records, including branching and solitary scleractinian species. These new sites are located along steep escarpments and on topographic highs along the margins of Crete, Karpathos, and Rhodes. The majority of the corals represent fossil occurrences, predominantly Late Pleistocene assemblages. Our research documents that the Eastern Mediterranean Basin has been colonized by CWC at favorable times during the Last Glacial, in particular during the Younger Dryas. Schizocyathus fissilis is reported for the first time for the Mediterranean, while the finding of Ceratotrochus magnaghii represents the first record for the Eastern Mediterranean. Various coral facies occur on the southerly island slopes of Crete, Karpathos, and Rhodes, including hardgrounds and loose skeletal sediments. Hardgrounds occur on steep topographies between ca. 500 and 1,700 m, and can conveniently be subdivided as (1) Neopycnodonte-Desmophyllum framestone, (2) Desmophyllum-Caryophyllia framestone, (3) Madrepora-Lophelia rudstone, (4) Pelagic mudstone and wackestone, and (5) Siliciclastic-carbonate conglomerate and breccia. Unconsolidated skeletal sediments containing corals mainly occur on gentler topographic situations between ca. 140 and 600 m and can be subdivided as: (A) Lophelia-Madrepora rubble, (B) Dendrophyllia rubble, (C) Stenocyathus rubble, (D) Caryophyllia calveri rubble, and (E) fine-grained sediment with octocoral axes. Many of these facies types are also present in the western part of the Mediterranean and have fossil representatives from the Pleistocene to the Recent. Radiocarbon dating (AMS-¹⁴C) reveals Younger Dryas ages between 12.4 and 12.0 ka cal BP for Lophelia pertusa and Madrepora oculata. Desmophyllum dianthus occurs during the Last Glacial Maximum (21.8 ka cal BP) and the Younger Dryas (11.7 ka cal BP), as well as during the Late Holocene and subrecent times (4.4?C0.6 ka cal BP). Caryophyllia sarsiae occurs during the Late Glacial (15.5 ka cal BP), while Caryophyllia calveri occurs during the Early Preboreal (10.8 ka cal BP). The ages for the framework-constructing corals L. pertusa and M. oculata are coherent with their temporal predominance during the Younger Dryas in other parts of the Mediterranean.     

Climate Change as (Dis)Equilibrium: Behavioral Resilience in the Greenlandic Arctic

Evolutionary explanations for social phenomena are increasingly common in sociology and anthropology circles. The intersection where cultural change, human behavioral variation and adaptation research meet is complex and frequently subject to distortion or misunderstanding. In the popular press, Arctic populations in particular are often portrayed as cultures in crisis, unable to cope in the face of climate change. This study assesses the claim that there is a fundamental mismatch, or disequilibrium, between Arctic peoples and their environment. Utilizing ethnographic interviews with contemporary hunters and fishers from Disko Bay in northwest Greenland alongside archival Greenlandic Statbank data and peer-reviewed literature, we provide an overview of population-culture-environment interactions over time. The data confirm an environment that is constantly in flux, with corresponding human population boom and bust. However, humans are not passive receivers of this change nor are they blindly reacting to disequilibrium. Instead coping strategies are afforded by constantly shifting use of sociocultural knowledge, behavioural flexibility and a creative use of technological buffers. The extent of indigenous people’s ability to incorporate long-term on-going environmental perturbations, particularly in the context of global patterns of trade and industry, remains an open discussion.     

Inferring Resilience to Fragmentation-Induced Changes in Plant Communities in a Semi-Arid Mediterranean Ecosystem

Predicting the capacity of ecosystems to absorb impacts from disturbance events (resilience), including land-use intensification and landscape fragmentation, is challenging in the face of global change. Little is known about the impacts of fragmentation on ecosystem functioning from a multi-dimensional perspective (multiple traits). This study used 58 500-m linear transects to quantify changes in the functional composition and resilience of vascular plant communities in response to an increase in landscape fragmentation in 18 natural scrubland fragments embedded within a matrix of abandoned crop fields in Cabo de Gata-Níjar Natural Park, Almería, Spain. Changes in functional community composition were measured using functional diversity indices (functional richness and functional dispersion) that were based on 12 plant traits. Resilience was evaluated using the functional redundancy and response diversity from the perspective of plant dispersal, which is important, particularly, in fragmented landscapes. Scrubland fragmentation was measured using the Integral Index of Connectivity (IIC). The functional richness of the plant communities was higher in the most fragmented scrubland. Conversely, the functional dispersion (i.e., spread) of trait values among species in the functional trait space was lower at the most fragmented sites; consequently, the ecological tolerance of the vegetation to scrubland fragmentation decreased. Classifying the plant species into four functional groups indicated that fragmentation favoured an increase in functional redundancy in the ‘short basal annual forbs and perennial forbs’ group, most of which are species adapted to degraded soils. An assessment based on the traits associated with plant dispersal indicated that the resilience of ‘woody plants’, an important component in the Mediterranean scrubland, and habitat fragmentation were negatively correlated; however, the correlation was positive in the ‘short basal annual forbs and perennial forbs’ and the ‘grasses’ groups.     

Environmental drivers of the anchovy/sardine complex in the Eastern Mediterranean

The anchovy/sardine complex is an important fishery resource in some of the largest upwelling systems in the world. Synchronous, but out of phase, fluctuations of the two species in distant parts of the oceans have prompted a number of studies dedicated to determining the phenomena, atmospheric and oceanic, responsible for the observed synchronicity and the biological mechanisms behind the population changes of the two species. Anchovy and sardine are of high commercial value for the fishing sector in Greece; this study investigates the impact of large-scale climatic indices on the anchovy/sardine complex in the Greek seas using fishery catches as a proxy for fish productivity. Time series of catches for both species were analysed for relationships with teleconnection indices and local environmental variability. The connection between the teleconnection indices and local weather/oceanic variation was also examined in an effort to describe physical mechanisms that link large-scale atmospheric patterns with anchovy and sardine. The West African Summer Monsoon, East Atlantic Jet and Pacific–North American (PNA) pattern exhibit coherent relationships with the catches of the two species. The first two aforementioned patterns are prominent atmospheric modes of variability during the summer months when sardine is spawning and anchovy juveniles are growing. PNA is related with El Niño Southern Oscillation events. Sea Surface Temperature (SST) appears as a significant link between atmospheric and biological variability either because higher temperatures seem to be favouring sardine growth or because lower temperatures, characteristic of productivity-enhancing oceanic features, exert a positive influence on both species. However at a local scale, other parameters such as wind and mesoscale circulation describe air–sea variability affecting the anchovy/sardine complex. These relationships are non-linear and in agreement with results of previous studies stressing the importance of optimal environmental windows. The results also show differences in the response of the two species to environmental forcing and possible interactions between the two species. The nature of these phenomena, e.g., if the species interactions are direct through competition or indirect through the food web, remains to be examined.     

The Temporal Dynamics of Coastal Phytoplankton and Bacterioplankton in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

This study considers variability in phytoplankton and heterotrophic bacterial abundances and production rates, in one of the most oligotrophic marine regions in the world–the Levantine Basin. The temporal dynamics of these planktonic groups were studied in the coastal waters of the southeastern Mediterranean Sea approximately every two weeks for a total of two years. Heterotrophic bacteria were abundant mostly during late summer and midwinter, and were positively correlated with bacterial production and with N₂ fixation. Based on size fractionating, picophytoplankton was abundant during the summer, whereas nano-microphytoplankton predominated during the winter and early spring, which were also evident in the size-fractionated primary production rates. Autotrophic abundance and production correlated negatively with temperature, but did not correlate with inorganic nutrients. Furthermore, a comparison of our results with results from the open Levantine Basin demonstrates that autotrophic and heterotrophic production, as well as N₂ fixation rates, are considerably higher in the coastal habitat than in the open sea, while nutrient levels or cell abundance are not different. These findings have important ecological implications for food web dynamics and for biological carbon sequestration in this understudied region.