Rural Livelihoods and Burning Practices in Savanna Landscapes of Nusa Tenggara Timur,Eastern Indonesia

Substantial attention has been given in recent years to forest and peatland degradation, transboundary haze, and biodiversity and economic impacts associated with major fire events in perhumid western Indonesia. Conversely, little information is available concerning underpinning conditions associated with burning practices and resultant fire patterns in other parts of the Indonesian archipelago, especially in markedly seasonally dry regions. As part of a broader study examining the patterning and drivers of burning in the monsoonal province of Nusa Tenggara Timur (NTT), the paper explores cultural, socioeconomic, biophysical, and, in discussion, political dimensions associated with landscape-scale patterns of burning at each of two village locations on the islands of Sumba and Flores. Assembled data illustrate that: (1) study villages are reliant on a range of subsistence agricultural activities, particularly annual food crops, livestock (especially pigs), and forest products; (2) while villages encompass mostly extensive areas of grassland savanna, proportionately most income/products are derived from limited areas of arable agricultural and very diminished forested lands; (3) despite this, considerable economic potential exists for developing certain tree products especially in agro-forestry settings, and more intensive livestock management; (4) these patterns are representative generally of surrounding regional agricultural landscapes. While burning is used as an essential agricultural management tool in defined seasonal contexts in all study villages, the reality is that today much burning is unmanaged and uncontrolled, with attendant significant economic impacts. As for western Indonesia, underlying drivers of such behavior are multiple and complex, but pointedly include: rapid societal change; conflicts within and between villages, and between villages and regulatory authorities (especially the Forestry Department), over access to land and resources; and continued nonrecognition in national and provincial fire policy frameworks of the practical necessity for using fire (wisely and safely) in many agricultural contexts. It is axiomatic that, without effective fire management and a supportive policy environment, sustainable livelihoods development will continue to be elusive in fire-prone savanna landscapes of eastern Indonesia.     

Shifting Cultivation and Fire Policy: Insights from the Brazilian Amazon

Fires in humid tropical forests are increasingly frequent due to severe dry seasons, forest degradation and agricultural expansion. One agent implicated in current discourse surrounding tropical forest fires is the small-scale farming peasantry who rely on fire in swidden (shifting cultivation, slash-and-burn) agriculture. The environmental degradation associated with fire has led to government responses at multiple scales (international, national, state, regional) via policies aimed mainly at managing ignition sources. However, continued increase in forest fires suggests that these policies may be having limited impact and a fresh evaluation of current policy approaches to fire management is needed. We review fire policy measures with insights of caboclo farming practices and perspectives from Eastern Amazonia and examine the congruence between policy and practice. We demonstrate a significant disparity between policy requirements such as firebreaks and actual fire management practices, in which measures rarely meet requirements outlined in legislation. We explore the origins and the impacts of these disparities, focussing on smallholder farm-level management measures and local capacity. Incomplete knowledge coupled with marginal awareness of legal requirements served to propagate widespread erroneous beliefs in what these are. This analysis at multiple scales (international, national, state, regional) will contribute to developing greater congruence between fire policies and smallholder farming practices.     

Spatial evaluation of Indonesia's 2015 fire‐affected area and estimated carbon emissions using Sentinel‐1

Fires raged once again across Indonesia in the latter half of 2015, creating a state of emergency due to poisonous smoke and haze across Southeast Asia as well as incurring great financial costs to the government. A strong El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) led to drought in many parts of Indonesia, resulting in elevated fire occurrence comparable with the previous catastrophic event in 1997/1998. Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data promise to provide improved detection of land use and land cover changes in the tropics as compared to methodologies dependent upon cloud‐ and haze‐free images. This study presents the first spatially explicit estimates of burned area across Sumatra, Kalimantan, and West Papua based on high‐resolution Sentinel‐1A SAR imagery. Here, we show that 4,604,569 hectares (ha) were burned during the 2015 fire season (overall accuracy 84%), and compare this with other existing operational burned area products (MCD64, GFED4.0, GFED4.1s). Intersection of burned area with fine‐scale land cover and peat layer maps indicates that 0.89 gigatons carbon dioxide equivalents (Gt CO₂e) were released through the fire event. This result is compared to other estimates based on nonspatially explicit thermal anomaly measurements or atmospheric monitoring. Using freely available SAR C‐band data from the Sentinel mission, we argue that the presented methodology is able to quickly and precisely detect burned areas, supporting improvement in fire control management as well as enhancing accuracy of emissions estimation.     

自然火干扰对新疆喀纳斯旅游区森林景观树种结构的影响

 自然火干扰是森林生态系统的正常行为, 是决定森林物种构成、群落结构和生物多样性的主要因素。该研究将新疆喀纳斯旅游区作为研究对象, 把自然火干扰和树种结构作为不可分割的整体, 就喀纳斯旅游区树种结构对自然火干扰的响应进行了分析。结果表明, 受自然火干扰林分和长期未受干扰林分的树种结构之间存在明显的差异, 自然火干扰对阔叶针叶树种比、树种丰富度(Ma)和Shannon-Wiener多样性指数(H′)存在极显著的影响, 受自然火干扰后, 三者均表现出增大的特征。此外, 所调查范围内曾发生8次自然火干扰事件, 并且不同时期发生的自然火干扰对以阔叶针叶树种比为特质的季相结构和树种丰富度存在极显著的影响。自然火干扰是影响新疆喀纳斯旅游区季相结构和组成结构的主要因素之一。     

Reproductive performance of Eurasian Kestrel Falco tinnunculus in an agricultural landscape with a mosaic of land uses

There are serious concerns about the environmental and ecological degradation caused by modern agriculture and its impact on animal populations. There is therefore a need to assess the reproductive performance of free‐living animals in agricultural landscapes. We undertook a 4‐year study on the reproductive biology of Eurasian Kestrel Falco tinnunculus in the Parma district of Italy. Kestrels breeding in areas of intensive agriculture delayed egg‐laying and their offspring were in poorer condition compared with those breeding in areas of temporary or permanent grasslands. However, egg volume and fledging success were similar among sites. The availability of temporary and permanent grasslands may limit the negative impacts of intensive agriculture on the breeding activity of Kestrels.     

Parks-people conflicts: the case of Gonarezhou National Park and the Chitsa community in south-east Zimbabwe

National parks have been the centre piece of international conservation strategies in developing countries. The expansion in the network of national parks has enabled the conservation of biodiversity and habitats but the acquisition of vast areas into the park system has often been achieved through the displacement of resident local communities. Displaced people are exposed to a variety of impoverishment risks and this stokes up animosity towards parks. The research reported here seeks to understand the key issues involved in the occupation of a section of Gonarezhou National Park by Headman Chitsa’s people. The paper examines how the interplay between the history of displacement and dispossession, demographic pressures, limited economic opportunities, the ‘fast track’ land reform programme and dynastic politics are fomenting the land conflict between Gonarezhou and Chitsa community. Secondary actors with diverse interests have also come into the fold. Official efforts to resolve the conflict using a top-down approach have yielded little success. This culminated in a shift towards the use of traditional mechanisms of resolving a chieftaincy dispute as a step towards addressing the broader parks-people land conflict. Lessons from the case study are, inter alia, that interventions aimed at resolving parks-people conflicts should be alive to local culture, livelihood needs and power dynamics and, to the extent possible, eschew forcible relocations. Finally, we draw attention to the need to address the wider contradiction between policies promoting wildlife conservation and those promoting agriculture. The article is written to share lessons with readers interested in parks-people conflicts.     

Clarifying the relationship among clean energy consumption,haze pollution and economic growth–based on the empirical analysis of China's Yangtze River Delta Region

At present, the frequent occurrence of haze in China has attracted extensive attention around the world. However, there are few researches based on simultaneous equation model to evaluate the relationship among clean energy consumption, haze pollution and economic growth. Whether the relationship among clean energy consumption, haze pollution and economic growth can be clarified correctly is the core issue to achieve the goal of both haze control and high-quality economic development. The innovation of this study is to further explore the interaction mechanism among the three variables, simultaneous equation model is used to analyze the relationship of clean energy development, haze pollution and economic growth of 27 cities in the central area of Yangtze River Delta from 2006 to 2016. The estimation results show that:(i) The development of clean energy has reduced regional haze pollution and the level of economic development significantly; (ii) During the study period of this paper, haze pollution has significantly increased the consumption of clean energy, but it has hindered the level of economic development seriously. (iii) The level of economic development has increased clean energy consumption at a 1% level of significance, while also exacerbated the degree of haze pollution. Moreover, as a core variable of this paper, coal consumption has restrained clean energy development and played a positive role in accelerating economic development and haze pollution reduction.     

美国林火管理概况及分析

受气候变化和人为活动的影响,近年来全球重特大森林火灾频发,给生态系统、大气环境和人类健康带来重大影响.美国在林火管理方面积累了大量的实践经验.全面梳理美国林火管理的框架体系,可以为我国的森林防火工作提供有力借鉴.本文从美国林火政策的历史演变入手,系统介绍了政策演变的4个阶段及各阶段的特点,从可燃物管理、行政管理权责、火灾扑救和林火管理科研支撑4个方面对美国林火管理概况进行综合分析.同时,通过总结相关文献,提出美国未来可燃物管理、政策政治和火灾扑救3方面的改进策略.最后,通过对美国林火管理的综合分析,提出对我国林火管理的几点启示性意见,旨在推动建立健全具有我国特色的林火管理体系.     

After Grenfell: accumulation,debris, and forming failure in London

The Grenfell Tower fire in London in 2017 is popularly associated with a litany of failures: political, structural, moral, material. But while the official inquiry has sought to frame the fire as a discrete event, for local residents it is inextricable from accumulated histories of injustice and inequality. Years on, the fire still reverberates, its afterlife constellating with new narratives and politics. Drawing on literature on ruination and remains, as well as methodological theory, this essay examines how the form of failure is never pre-known but must be made to appear. Through diverse encounters with the tower's debris – material and conceptual – failure is made to matter, acting both backwards and forwards in time. Reflecting on remainders and erasures at the tower site, as well as debates about the parameters of the inquiry, I explore how failure is continually recomposed, becoming both an object of knowledge and an instrument for its formation.     

Continental fire density patterns in South America

Aims Quantification of the effects and interactions of natural and anthropogenic factors, including climate, canopy structure, land use and management conditions, on vegetation burning. The study of these relationships is fundamental to predict regional fire patterns and develop sound management and regulation policies for biomass burning at national and global levels. Location Southern South America, including Argentina, Brazil, Paraguay, Uruguay, Bolivia and Chile. Methods Based on National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration–Advance Very High Resolution Radiometer (NOAA–AVHRR) satellite images, we identified fires in southern South America with a daily frequency for two periods (1999/2000 and 2000/01) using a contextual fire detection algorithm and integrating the density of these fires at a monthly scale into a 0.5 × 0.5° grid. We combined vegetation and climate global databases and land use information from national census data to explore the relationship of these factors with fires across the region. Results The whole study region had a mean fire density of 0.10 and 0.05 fires km^?2 year^?1 in 1999/2000 and 2000/01, respectively, with extreme values as high as 1.37 in fires km^?2 year^?1 in Para State, Brazil. Water deficit estimates, derived from a climatic water balance, showed the better correlation with fire density (r = 0.28; P < 0.001; n = 4467), interacting strongly with land use. In areas with low agricultural use fire density increased with water deficit, whereas in highly agricultural areas this relationship was not observed. Agriculture significantly reduced fire density in prairies and savannas but increased its frequency in rain forests. Main conclusions These results suggest that agriculture prevents biomass burning in semiarid areas but enhances it in humid environments, where biomass accumulates at faster rates.     

The Fire Refuge Value of Patches of a Fire‐Sensitive Tree in Fire‐prone Savannas: Callitris intratropica in Northern Australia

Patches of fire‐sensitive vegetation often occur within fire‐prone tropical savannas, and are indicative of localized areas where fire regimes are less severe. These may act as important fire refugia for fire‐sensitive biota. The fire‐sensitive tree Callitris intratropica occurs in small patches throughout the fire‐prone northern Australian savannas, and is widely seen as an indicator of low‐severity fire regimes and of good ecosystem health. Here, we address the question: to what extent do Callitris patches act as refuges for other fire‐sensitive biota, and therefore play a broader conservation role? We contrast floral and faunal species composition between Callitris patches and surrounding eucalypt savanna, using three case studies. In the first case study, a floristic analysis of 47 Callitris patches across Western Australia's Kimberley region showed that woody species in these patches were overwhelmingly widespread, fire‐tolerant savanna taxa. No species of special conservation concern occurred disproportionately within Callitris patches. Similarly, there was no concentration of fire‐sensitive fauna or flora in five Callitris patches in the East Kimberley. Finally, there was no difference in ant species composition among 12 Callitris patches and surrounding eucalypt savannas in Kakadu National Park, Northern Territory, and there were no fire‐sensitive ant species in Callitris patches. Our three case studies from throughout the northwestern Australia provide no evidence that Callitris patches act as important refuges for fire‐sensitive flora or fauna within fire‐prone eucalypt savannas. This calls into question the notion that Callitris is a strong indicator of general ecosystem health.     

The effect of short fire cycles on the cover and density of understorey sprouting species in South African mountain fynbos

Abstract. Two South African mountain fynbos sites were studied to determine the effect of short fire cycles on the cover and density of understorey sprouting species and their subsequent effect on plant-species richness. Frequent fires (4–6 years between burns) increased the cover of sprouting species by 32% when compared to an adjacent site where the penultimate fire was 28 years previously. There was little or no effect of fire frequency on the densities of understorey sprouters; however, individuals were larger at sites with short fire cycles. The response of individual species of sprouters was variable with one species, Hypodiscus striatus , showing no response to fire frequency. The impact of sprouting species on the species richness of the plant community was great. The mean number of species recorded in quadrats with a high cover of sprouters was 60% lower in comparison to quadrats with low covers or under the burned skeletons of overstorey proteas. The effect of sprouters was consistent for all functional groups of species (i.e. sprouters, non-sprouters, short-lived and long-lived species), in each case reducing the number of species present.     

The influence of fire on the phenological behaviour of Mediterranean plant species in Bas-Languedoc (southern France)

Fire is an ancient ecological factor influencing the Mediterranean vegetation of southern France. The study was carried out on three areas to determine the phenological behaviour of plants with regard to fire. First we studied the flowering responses of perennials in relation to the time since fire: in a Quercus coccifera garrigue most species flower during the year following burning. In comparing species by species between burned and unburned areas most species did not show major differences in the phenological stages. However, fire did increase the number of inflorescences of grasses. A phenological synthesis showed that differences at the community level existed for the flowering stages between the burned areas and the unburned control sites during the first and second years following fire. The growth of some woody species was also studied; the elongation and growth of the plants were biggest during the first or second year after fire. The lack of differences in phenological response between burned and unburned plants may be an adaptive trait to fire.     

Patterns of Adherence to and Compliance with the Portuguese Smoke-Free Law in the Leisure-Hospitality Sector

Background

In 2008, the Portuguese smoke-free law came into effect including partial bans in the leisure-hospitality (LH) sector. The objective of the study is to assess the prevalence of smoking control policies (total ban, smoking permission and designated smoking areas) adopted by the LH sector in Portugal. The levels of noncompliance with each policy are investigated as well as the main factors associated with smoking permission and noncompliance with the law.

Methods

Cross-sectional study conducted between January 2010 and May 2011. A random sample of venues was selected from the Portuguese LH sector database, proportionally stratified according to type, size and geographical area. All venues were assessed in loco by an observer. The independent effects of venues'' characteristics on smoking permission and the level of noncompliance with the law were explored using logistic regression.

Results

Overall, 1.412 venues were included. Total ban policy was adopted by 75.9% of venues, while 8.4% had designated smoking areas. Smoking ban was more prevalent in restaurants (85.9%). Only 29.7% of discos/bars/pubs opted for complete ban. Full or partial smoking permission was higher in discos/bar/pubs (OR = 7.37; 95%CI 4.87 to 11.17). Noncompliance with the law was higher in venues allowing smoking and lower in places with complete ban (33.6% and 7.6% respectively, p<0.001). Discos/bars/pubs with full smoking permission had the highest level of noncompliance (OR = 3.31; 95%CI 1.40 to 7.83).

Conclusions

Our findings show a high adherence to smoking ban policy by the Portuguese LH sector. Nonetheless, one quarter of the venues is fully or partially permissive towards smoking, with the discos/bars/pubs considerably contributing to this situation. Venues with smoking permission policies were less compliant with the legislation. The implementation of a comprehensive smoke-free law, without any exceptions, is essential to effectively protect people from the second hand smoke.     

The red imported fire ant,Solenopsis invicta,modifies predation at the soil surface and in cotton foliage

Red imported fire ants, Solenopsis invicta, are generalist predators that can have major impacts on foliar arthropod communities in agricultural systems; however, their effects as predators at the soil surface have not been adequately characterized. We examined the contribution of fire ants to predation at the soil surface and in cotton foliage at two sites and over the course of two field seasons in Georgia, using egg masses of the beet armyworm, Spodoptera exigua. To assess interactions between fire ants and other arthropod species, we also measured the densities of edaphic predators and honeydew‐producing hemipterans at both sites. The sites occurred in different growing regions (Piedmont and Coastal Plain), and allowed us to characterize the importance of fire ants as predators under different climatic and soil conditions. Fire ant suppression decreased egg predation at both field sites, and predation by fire ants at the soil surface was equal to if not greater than that in cotton foliage. However, the impact of fire ants on predation varied between sites, likely due to differences in climate and the composition and activity of the extant arthropod communities. Our study also indicates that fire ant suppression is associated with decreases in the density of honeydew‐producing insects, and increasing abundance of whiteflies on the plants coincided with a decrease in egg predation at the soil surface. This finding suggests the mutualism between ants and whiteflies may lead to a shift in predation intensity from edaphic towards plant‐based food webs.     

Competitive interactions between overstorey proteas and sprouting understorey species in South African mountain fynbos

Abstract. Previous studies in the mountain fynbos of South Africa have demonstrated that short fire cycles favour the establishment of dense covers of understorey sprouters while longer fire intervals enable the establishment from seed of overstorey proteas and the formation of a overstorey. One consequence of these differences between fire cycle lengths is the effect that understorey sprouters and an overstorey protea canopy have on species richness. In the case of short fire intervals, species richness is decreased while longer intervals between fires allow species richness to decrease or increase depending on the patchiness of the overstorey canopy. Such results are suggestive of competitive effects between understorey sprouters and overstorey canopy proteas. In this study, data were collected from several pyric successional stages in mountain fynbos to study the effect of overstorey proteas on the growth and flowering of understorey sprouters since the last fire. Data were also collected to determine the effect that understorey sprouters had on the establishment and fecundity of overstorey protea species. Competitive interactions between overstorey proteas and sprouting understorey species were evident at all the sites studied. The vegetative growth and seed production of understorey sprouters, which grew under a canopy of overstorey proteas during the current interfire period, were significantly lower than that for plants growing in the open. In addition, the postfire growth and seed production of understorey sprouters were significantly lower for individuals, which grew under an overstorey protea canopy during the previous fire cycle, than for those individuals which grew in the open. The fecundity of overstorey proteas, which grew near understorey sprouters, was lower than that of plants which grew in the open. This effect was evident for up to the first 15 years after a fire. However, not all understorey sprouters affected the overstorey proteas equally. Also, seedlings of overstorey proteas established significantly less successfully in close proximity to understorey sprouters after a fire than in the open or under proteas. Finally, the results demonstrate that complex species‐specific, understorey–overstorey interactions are important in mountain fynbos. For example, some overstorey species depend on trophically similar species to reduce potential competition from understorey sprouters for their successful establishment at a site.     

Fire History in the Cherokee Nation of Oklahoma

The role of humans in historic fire regimes has received little quantitative attention. Here, we address this inadequacy by developing a fire history in northeastern Oklahoma on lands once occupied by the Cherokee Nation. A fire event chronology was reconstructed from 324 tree-ring dated fire scars occurring on 49 shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata) remnant trees. Fire event data were examined with the objective of determining the relative roles of humans and climate over the last four centuries. Variability in the fire regime appeared to be significantly influenced by human population density, culture, and drought. The mean fire interval (MFI) within the 1.2 km² study area was 7.5 years from 1633 to 1731 and 2.8 years from 1732 to 1840. Population density of Native American groups including Cherokee was significantly correlated (r?=?0.84) with the number of fires per decade between 1680 and 1880. Coincident with the Removal of the Cherokee and other native peoples from the eastern United States and immigrations into northeast Oklahoma, the MFI decreased to 1.8 years. After 1925 fire intervals were considerably lengthened (MFI?=?16 years) due to fire suppression and decreased fire use until the recent prescribed burning by The Nature Conservancy. Many of the historic fire years that were previously shown to be synchronous across Missouri and Arkansas during drought years were also fire years at this site. Overall the frequency of fires was weakly associated with drought compared to human population density.     

Simplifying the savanna: the trajectory of fire‐sensitive vegetation mosaics in northern Australia

Aim Fire is a key agent in savanna systems, yet the capacity to predict fine‐grained population phenomena under variable fire regime conditions at landscape scales is a daunting challenge. Given mounting evidence for significant impacts of fire on vulnerable biodiversity elements in north Australian savannas over recent decades, we assess: (1) the trajectory of fire‐sensitive vegetation elements within a particularly biodiverse savanna mosaic based on long‐term monitoring and spatial modelling; (2) the broader implications for northern Australia; and (3) the applicability of the methodological approach to other fire‐prone settings. Location Arnhem Plateau, northern Australia. Methods We apply data from long‐term vegetation monitoring plots included within Kakadu National Park to derive statistical models describing the responses of structure and floristic attributes to 15 years of ambient (non‐experimental) fire regime treatments. For a broader 28,000 km² region, we apply significant models to spatial assessment of the effects of modern fire regimes (1995–2009) on diagnostic closed forest, savanna and shrubland heath attributes. Results Significant models included the effects of severe fires on large stems of the closed forest dominant Allosyncarpia ternata, stem densities of the widespread savanna coniferous obligate seeder Callitris intratropica, and fire frequency and related fire interval parameters on numbers of obligate seeder taxa characteristic of shrubland heaths. No significant relationships were observed between fire regime and eucalypt and non‐eucalypt adult tree components of savanna. Spatial application of significant models illustrates that more than half of the regional closed forest perimeters, savanna and shrubland habitats experienced deleterious fire regimes over the study period, except in very dissected terrain. Main conclusions While north Australia’s relatively unmodified mesic savannas may appear structurally intact and healthy, this study provides compelling evidence that fire‐sensitive vegetation elements embedded within the savanna mosaic are in decline under present‐day fire regimes. These observations have broader implications for analogous savanna mosaics across northern Australia, and support complementary findings of the contributory role of fire regimes in the demise of small mammal fauna. The methodological approach has application in other fire‐prone settings, but is reliant on significant long‐term infrastructure resourcing.     

Spatial and temporal variation in historic fire regimes in subalpine forests across the Colorado Front Range in Rocky Mountain National Park, Colorado, USA

Aim The historical variability of fire regimes must be understood in the context of drivers of the occurrence of fire operating at a range of spatial scales from local site conditions to broad‐scale climatic variation. In the present study we examine fire history and variations in the fire regime at multiple spatial and temporal scales for subalpine forests of Engelmann spruce–subalpine fir (Picea engelmannii, Abies lasiocarpa) and lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) of the southern Rocky Mountains. Location The study area is the subalpine zone of spruce–fir and lodgepole pine forests in the southern sector of Rocky Mountain National Park (ROMO), Colorado, USA, which straddles the continental divide of the northern Colorado Front Range (40°20′ N and 105°40′ W). Methods We used a combination of dendroecological and Geographic Information System methods to reconstruct fire history, including fire year, severity and extent at the forest patch level, for c. 30,000 ha of subalpine forest. We aggregated fire history information at appropriate spatial scales to test for drivers of the fire regime at local, meso, and regional scales. Results The fire histories covered c. 30,000 ha of forest and were based on a total of 676 partial cross‐sections of fire‐scarred trees and 6152 tree‐core age samples. The subalpine forest fire regime of ROMO is dominated by infrequent, extensive, stand‐replacing fire events, whereas surface fires affected only 1–3% of the forested area. Main conclusions Local‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by differences in the relative proportions of stands of different ages between the lodgepole pine and spruce–fir forest types. Lodgepole pine stands all originated following fires in the last 400 years; in contrast, large areas of spruce–fir forests consisted of stands not affected by fire in the past 400 years. Meso‐scale influences on fire regimes are reflected by fewer but larger fires on the west vs. east side of the continental divide. These differences appear to be explained by less frequent and severe drought on the west side, and by the spread of fires from lower‐elevation mixed‐conifer montane forests on the east side. Regional‐scale climatic variation is the primary driver of infrequent, large fire events, but its effects are modulated by local‐ and meso‐scale abiotic and biotic factors. The low incidence of fire during the period of fire‐suppression policy in the twentieth century is not unique in comparison with the previous 300 years of fire history. There is no evidence that fire suppression has resulted in either the fire regime or current forest conditions being outside their historic ranges of variability during the past 400 years. Furthermore, in the context of fuel treatments to reduce fire hazard, regardless of restoration goals, the association of extremely large and severe fires with infrequent and exceptional drought calls into question the future effectiveness of tree thinning to mitigate fire hazard in the subalpine zone.