Using ecological niche modelling to evaluate niche stability in deep time

Aim To investigate relative niche stability in species responses to various types of environmental pressure (biotic and abiotic) on geological time‐scales using the fossil record. Location The case study focuses on Late Ordovician articulate brachiopods of the Cincinnati Arch in eastern North America. Methods Species niches were modelled for a suite of fossil brachiopod species based on five environmental variables inferred from sedimentary parameters using GARP and Maxent . Niche stability was assessed by comparison of (1) the degree of overlap of species distribution models developed for a time‐slice and those generated by projecting niche models of the previous time‐slice onto environmental layers of a second time‐slice using GARP and Maxent , (2) Schoener’s D statistic, and (3) the similarity of the contribution of each environmental parameter within Maxent niche models between adjacent time‐slices. Results Late Ordovician brachiopod species conserved their niches with high fidelity during intervals of gradual environmental change but responded to inter‐basinal species invasions through niche evolution. Both native and invasive species exhibited similar levels of niche evolution in the invasion and post‐invasion intervals. Niche evolution was related mostly to decreased variance within the former ecological niche parameters rather than to shifts to new ecospace. Main conclusions Although the species examined exhibited morphological stasis during the study interval, high levels of niche conservatism were observed only during intervals of gradual environmental change. Rapid environmental change, notably inter‐basinal species invasions, resulted in high levels of niche evolution among the focal taxa. Both native and invasive species responded with similar levels of niche evolution during the invasion interval and subsequent environmental reorganization. The assumption of complete niche conservatism frequently employed in ecological niche modelling (ENM) analyses to forecast or hindcast species geographical distributions is more likely to be accurate for climate change studies than for invasive species analyses over geological time‐scales.     

Climatic niche evolution in turtles is characterized by phylogenetic conservatism for both aquatic and terrestrial species

Understanding how the climatic niche of species evolved has been a topic of high interest in current theoretical and applied macroecological studies. However, little is known regarding how species traits might influence climatic niche evolution. Here, we evaluated patterns of climatic niche evolution in turtles (tortoises and freshwater turtles) and whether species habitat (terrestrial or aquatic) influences these patterns. We used phylogenetic, climatic and distribution data for 261 species to estimate their climatic niches. Then, we compared whether niche overlap between sister species was higher than between random species pairs and evaluated whether niche optima and rates varied between aquatic and terrestrial species. Sister species had higher values of niche overlap than random species pairs, suggesting phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism in turtles. The climatic niche evolution of the group followed an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model with different optimum values for aquatic and terrestrial species, but we did not find consistent evidence of differences in their rates of climatic niche evolution. We conclude that phylogenetic climatic niche conservatism occurs among turtle species. Furthermore, terrestrial and aquatic species occupy different climatic niches but these seem to have evolved at similar evolutionary rates, reinforcing the importance of habitat in understanding species climatic niches and their evolution.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

Demographic constraints in evolution: Towards unifying the evolutionary theories of senescence and niche conservatism

Summary I suggest that there may be a fundamental conceptual unity between two seemingly disparate phenomena: (1) senescence (the progressive deterioration in physiological function and, thus, individual fitness with age) and (2) niche conservatism (the observation that species often seem rather fixed over evolutionary time in their basic niche properties). I argue that both phenomena arise from demographic asymmetries. The evolutionary theory of ageing rests on the observation that the force of selection declines with age, reflecting the basic demographic facts that in persistent populations there are always fewer individuals in old than in young age classes and these individuals tend to have lower reproductive value. A similar demographic asymmetry arises when populations inhabit environments with source habitats (i.e. where conditions are within the species' niche) and sink habitats (where conditions lie outside the niche): there tend to be more individuals in sources than in sinks and individuals in sources have relatively higher reproductive values. These demographic asymmetries should often imply that the force of selection is greater in sources than in sinks, leading automatically towards niche conservatism. I suggest that niche evolution is most likely in circumstances where these demographic asymmetries in space weaken or reverse.     

Stable isotope analysis reveals variation in trophic niche depending on altitude in an endemic alpine gecko

Interspecific competition is considered a major determinant of ecological niche. It is hypothesized that increased competition should reduce niche breadth. However, there are scarce field tests on this hypothesis. Here, we test this central hypothesis in ecology by using the Atlas day gecko Quedenfeldtia trachyblepharus. This alpine gecko faces fewer competitors as altitude increases, and thereby, we predict that this species should increase niche breadth and relevant fitness parameters with altitude. We tested this prediction by analysing the isotopic signature of carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N). Our results reveal that specimens from higher altitudes showed higher values for both carbon (δ¹³C) and nitrogen (δ¹⁵N) isotopes, had better body condition and a greater isotopic breadth when compared to specimens from lower altitudes. Altitudinal variation in carbon values was not explained by variation in isotopic concentration in the baseline of the trophic chain. Therefore, our findings support the prediction that relaxed interspecific competition favours increased trophic niche breadth. These results also suggest that global warming may represent an important threat for this species, as it may provoke the ascent in altitude of competitors, with negative consequences for the conservation of this endemism.     

Ecology and evolution of the diaspore "burial syndrome"

Hygroscopically active awns or "bristles" have long intrigued scientists. Experimental evidence shows that they are important for diaspore burial in the correct orientation, thereby increasing successful seed germination and seedling survival. Despite these ecological advantages, 38 of the 280 species of grasses in Danthonioideae lack awns. We provide the first study of awns in a phylogenetic context and show that although the awnless state has arisen ca. 25 times independently, the ecological disadvantage of not having an awn also applies in an evolutionary context. Only in Tribolium and Schismus have awnless ancestors diversified to form a clade of primarily awnless descendents. Several of the awnless species in these genera are annual and we find a significant correlation between the evolution of awns and the evolution of life history. A suite of other diaspore traits accompany the awned or awnless states. We interpret the awn as being the visible constituent of a compound "burial syndrome," the two ecological extremes of which may explain the correlation between awns and life history and provide an explanation why awnless species in Tribolium and Schismus persist.     

Phylogenetic perspective on ecological niche evolution in american blackbirds (Family Icteridae)

Analysis of ecological characters on phylogenetic frameworks has only recently appeared in the literature, with several studies addressing patterns of niche evolution, generally over relatively recent time frames. In the present study, we examined patterns of niche evolution for a broad radiation of American blackbird species (Family Icteridae), exploring more deeply into phylogenetic history. Within each of three major blackbird lineages, overlap of ecological niches in principal components analysis transformed environmental space varied from high to none. Comparative phylogenetic analyses of ecological niche characteristics showed a general pattern of niche conservatism over evolutionary time, with differing degrees of innovation among lineages. Although blackbird niches were evolutionarily plastic over differing periods of time, they diverged within a limited set of ecological possibilities, resulting in examples of niche convergence among extant blackbird species. Hence, an understanding of the patterns of ecological niche evolution on broad phylogenetic scales sets the stage for framing questions of evolutionary causation, historical biogeography, and ancestral ecological characteristics more appropriately.  © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2008, 94 , 869–878.     

Rates of projected climate change dramatically exceed past rates of climatic niche evolution among vertebrate species

A key question in predicting responses to anthropogenic climate change is: how quickly can species adapt to different climatic conditions? Here, we take a phylogenetic approach to this question. We use 17 time‐calibrated phylogenies representing the major tetrapod clades (amphibians, birds, crocodilians, mammals, squamates, turtles) and climatic data from distributions of > 500 extant species. We estimate rates of change based on differences in climatic variables between sister species and estimated times of their splitting. We compare these rates to predicted rates of climate change from 2000 to 2100. Our results are striking: matching projected changes for 2100 would require rates of niche evolution that are > 10 000 times faster than rates typically observed among species, for most variables and clades. Despite many caveats, our results suggest that adaptation to projected changes in the next 100 years would require rates that are largely unprecedented based on observed rates among vertebrate species.     

Phylogenetic niche conservatism, phylogenetic signal and the relationship between phylogenetic relatedness and ecological similarity among species

Ecologists are increasingly adopting an evolutionary perspective, and in recent years, the idea that closely related species are ecologically similar has become widespread. In this regard, phylogenetic signal must be distinguished from phylogenetic niche conservatism. Phylogenetic niche conservatism results when closely related species are more ecologically similar that would be expected based on their phylogenetic relationships; its occurrence suggests that some process is constraining divergence among closely related species. In contrast, phylogenetic signal refers to the situation in which ecological similarity between species is related to phylogenetic relatedness; this is the expected outcome of Brownian motion divergence and thus is necessary, but not sufficient, evidence for the existence of phylogenetic niche conservatism. Although many workers consider phylogenetic niche conservatism to be common, a review of case studies indicates that ecological and phylogenetic similarities often are not related. Consequently, ecologists should not assume that phylogenetic niche conservatism exists, but rather should empirically examine the extent to which it occurs.     

The evolution and maintenance of delayed implantation in the mustelidae (mammalia: carnivora)

Diapause, the temporary cessation of development at an early life-history stage, is widespread among animals and plants. The range of taxa exhibiting various forms of diapause indicates its enormous ecological significance and highlights its value as a model for examining life-history trait evolution. However, despite the impact of diapause on species ecology, there is little understanding of its adaptive value in many groups. Furthermore, the relative roles of phylogeny and ecology in determining the contemporary expression of the trait remain unresolved. Delayed implantation (DI) is a type of diapause found in several orders of mammals. It is particularly prevalent in the Mustelidae, with mustelids making up more than half of all mammals known to exhibit DI. This taxon is thus ideal for examining life-history predictors of DI and investigating the mode of evolution. Both maximum likelihood and maximum parsimony methods of ancestral state reconstruction indicated DI to be plesiomorphic in the mustelids, although multiple state changes are required to explain its contemporary distribution. After controlling for phylogeny, species with and without DI could be discriminated using just three variables: longevity, maximum latitude of the geographical distribution, and a term describing maternal investment. Our analyses supported the hypothesis that DI is more prevalent in seasonal climates. We also showed that longer-lived species are more likely to exhibit DI, suggesting a time cost to the trait. We found no correlate for the highly variable duration of DI, which remains unexplained. Although ecological factors can predict the distribution of DI in modern mustelids, phylogenetic constraint is likely to play an important role.     

An asymmetry in niche conservatism contributes to the latitudinal species diversity gradient in New World vertebrates

The Tropical Niche Conservatism hypothesis is a leading explanation for why biodiversity increases towards the equator. The model suggests that most lineages have tropical origins, with few dispersing into temperate regions. However, biotas are comprised of lineages with differing geographical origins, thus it is unclear whether lineages that originated on different continents will exhibit similar patterns of niche conservatism. Here, we summarised biogeographical patterns of New World vertebrates and compared species diversity patterns between families that originated in North and South America. Overall, families with southern origins exhibit niche conservatism with many lineages restricted to the Neotropics, whereas many northern‐origin families are distributed across the Neotropics and the Nearctic. Consequently, northern lineages have contributed to high tropical biodiversity, but southern lineages have contributed relatively little to temperate biodiversity in North America. The asymmetry in niche conservatism between northern and southern lineages is an important contributor to the biodiversity gradient.     

Egg size evolution in tropical American arcid bivalves: the comparative method and the fossil record

Marine organisms exhibit a wide range of egg sizes, even among closely related taxa, and egg size is widely considered to be one of the most important components of the life histories of marine species. The nature of the trade-off between egg size and number and the consequences of variation in egg size for offspring growth and survivorship have been extensively modeled. Yet, there is little empirical evidence that supports the relative importance of particular environmental parameters in engendering the tremendous variation in egg size seen in marine organisms. This study compares egg sizes between six geminate species pairs of bivalves in the family Arcidae to determine whether egg size differs in predictable directions between geminate species in the two oceans separated by the Central American isthmus, and whether the direction and timing of egg size evolution among geminates in this family is correlated with both modern and paleoceanographic patterns of oceanic productivity. In all modern members of six geminate pairs, egg size was larger in the species in the western Atlantic than in its sister species the eastern Pacific. This pattern supports the hypothesis that optimal egg size differs in the two oceans due to the low productivity and poor larval feeding environment in the western Atlantic relative to the eastern Pacific. The fossil record of one geminate pair shows that egg size has remained consistently large in the western Atlantic from the Miocene to the Recent, while egg size in the eastern Pacific has decreased to the current small size in less than 2 million years; this suggests that modern-day differences between egg sizes in the western Atlantic and eastern Pacific are due to either an increase in productivity in the eastern Pacific and subsequent selection for smaller eggs in that ocean, or differential patterns of extinction that occurred well after the rise of the isthmus. These results agree with ancestral character state reconstruction using linear parsimony, but differ from squared-change parsimony reconstructions.     

Mitochondrial DNA evolution in theDrosophila nasuta subgroup of species

Summary TheDrosophila nasuta group consists of about 12 closely related species distributed throughout the Indo-Pacific region. They are of great interest because of their evolutionary idiosyncrasies including little morphological differentiation, the ability to intercross in the laboratory often producing fertile offspring, and substantial chromosomal evolution. Studies of metric traits, reproductive isolation, and chromosomal and enzyme polymorphisms have failed to resolve the phylogeny of the species. We report the results of a survey of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) restriction patterns of the species. The phylogeny obtained is consistent with other available information and suggests thatD. albomicans may represent the ancestral lineage of the group. The amount of polymorphism in local populations (=1.0% per site) is within the typical range observed in other animals, includingDrosophila. The degree of differentiation between species is, however, low: the origin of the group is tentatively dated about 6–8 million years ago. This study confirms the usefulness of mtDNA restriction patterns for ascertaining the phylogeny of closely related species.     

Phylogenetic relationships and ecological niche conservatism in killifish (Profundulidae) in Mesoamerica

The family Profundulidae is a group of small-sized fish species distributed between southern Mexico and Honduras, where they are frequently the only fish representatives at higher elevations in the basins where they occur. We characterized their ecological niche using different methods and metrics drawn from niche modelling and by re-examining phylogenetic relationships of a recently published molecular phylogeny of this family to gain a better understanding of its biogeographic and evolutionary history. We assessed both lines of evidence from the perspective of niche conservatism to set a foundation for discussing hypotheses about the processes underlying the distribution and evolution of the group. In fish clades where the species composition is not clear, we examined whether niche classification could be informative to discriminate groups geographically and ecologically consistent with any of the different hypotheses of valid species. The characterization of the ecological niche was carried out using the Maxent algorithm under different parameterizations and the projection of the presence on the main components of the most relevant environmental coverage, and the niche comparison was calculated with two indices (D and I), both in environmental space and in that projected geographically. With the molecular data, a species tree was generated using the *BEAST method. The comparison of these data was calculated with an age-overlap correlation test. Based on the molecular phylogeny and on niche overlap analyses, we uncovered strong evidence to support the idea that ecologically similar species are not necessarily sister species. The correlation analysis for genetic distance and niche overlap was not significant (P > 0.05). In clades with taxonomic conflicts, we only identified Profundulus oaxacae as a geographically and ecologically distinct group from P. punctatus. All the evidence considered leads us to propose that Profundulidae do not show evidence of niche conservatism and that there are reasons to consider P. oaxacae as a valid species. Our study suggests that niche divergence is a driving evolutionary force that caused the diversification and speciation processes of the Profundulidae, along with the geological and climatic events that promoted the expansion or contraction of suitable environments.     

Cave-adapted evolution in the North American amblyopsid fishes inferred using phylogenomics and geometric morphometrics

Cave adaptation has evolved repeatedly across the Tree of Life, famously leading to pigmentation and eye degeneration and loss, yet its macroevolutionary implications remain poorly understood. We use the North American amblyopsid fishes, a family spanning a wide degree of cave adaptation, to examine the impact of cave specialization on the modes and tempo of evolution. We reconstruct evolutionary relationships using ultraconserved element loci, estimate the ancestral histories of eye-state, and examine the impact of cave adaptation on body shape evolution. Our phylogenomic analyses provide a well-supported hypothesis for amblyopsid evolutionary relationships. The obligate blind cavefishes form a clade and the cave-facultative eyed spring cavefishes are nested within the obligate cavefishes. Using ancestral state reconstruction, we find support for at least two independent subterranean colonization events within the Amblyopsidae. Eyed and blind fishes have different body shapes, but not different rates of body shape evolution. North American amblyopsids highlight the complex nature of cave-adaptive evolution and the necessity to include multiple lines of evidence to uncover the underlying processes involved in the loss of complex traits.     

Phylogenetics of the woodrat genus Neotoma (Rodentia: Muridae): implications for the evolution of phenotypic variation in male external genitalia

Interspecific morphological variation in animal genitalia has long attracted the attention of evolutionary biologists because of the role genital form may play in the generation and/or maintenance of species boundaries. Here we examine the origin and evolution of genital variation in rodents of the muroid genus Neotoma. We test the hypothesis that a relatively rare genital form has evolved only once in Neotoma. We use four mitochondrial and four nuclear markers to evaluate this hypothesis by establishing a phylogenetic framework in which to examine genital evolution. We find intron seven of the beta-fibrinogen gene to be a highly informative nuclear marker for the levels of differentiation that characterize Neotoma with this locus evolving at a rate slower than cytochrome b but faster than 12S. We estimate phylogenetic relationships within Neotoma using both maximum parsimony and maximum likelihood-based Bayesian methods. Our Bayesian and parsimony reconstructions differ in significant ways, but we show that our parsimony analysis may be influenced by long-branch attraction. Furthermore, our estimate of Neotoma phylogeny remains consistent across various data partitioning strategies in the Bayesian analyses. Using ancestral state reconstruction, we find support for the monophyly of taxa that possess the relatively rare genital form. However, we also find support for the independent evolution of the common genital form and discuss possible underlying developmental shifts that may have contributed to our observed patterns of morphological evolution.     

Post-Eocene climate change, niche conservatism, and the latitudinal diversity gradient of New World birds

Aim The aim of this study was to test a variant of the evolutionary time hypothesis for the bird latitudinal diversity gradient derived from the effects of niche conservatism in the face of global climate change over evolutionary time. Location The Western Hemisphere. Methods We used digitized range maps of breeding birds to estimate the species richness at two grain sizes, 756 and 12,100 km². We then used molecular phylogenies resolved to family to quantify the root distance (RD) of each species as a measure of its level of evolutionary development. Birds were classified as ‘basal’ or ‘derived’ based on the RD of their family, and richness patterns were contrasted for the most basal and most derived 30% of species. We also generated temperature estimates for the Palaeogene across the Western Hemisphere to examine how spatial covariation between past and present climates might make it difficult to distinguish between ecological and evolutionary hypotheses for the current richness gradient. Results The warm, wet tropics support many species from basal bird clades, whereas the northern temperate zone and cool or dry tropics are dominated by species from more recent, evolutionarily derived clades. Furthermore, crucial to evaluating how niche conservatism among birds may drive the hemispherical richness gradient, the spatial structure of the richness gradient for basal groups is statistically indistinguishable from the overall gradient, whereas the richness gradient for derived groups is much shallower than the overall gradient. Finally, modern temperatures and the pattern of climate cooling since the Eocene are indistinguishable as predictors of bird species richness. Main conclusions Differences in the richness gradients of basal vs. derived clades suggest that the hemispherical gradient has been strongly influenced by the differential extirpation of species in older, warm‐adapted clades from parts of the world that have become cooler in the present. We propose that niche conservatism and global‐scale climate change over evolutionary time provide a parsimonious explanation for the contemporary bird latitudinal diversity gradient in the New World, although dispersal limitation of some highly derived clades probably plays a secondary role.