The effect of ascorbate on embryonic chick sternal chondrocytes cultured in agarose

Primary cultures of embryonic chick sternal chondrocytes were embedded in a three-dimensional matrix of 1% solid agarose which was overlaid with nutrient media. The chondrocytes divided and formed nests of spherically shaped cells which were surrounded by an extensive extracellular matrix containing high molecular weight proteoglycans. Using light and electron microscopy, condensation of proteoglycan was observed pericellularly, often forming septa between cells of a nest, and as part of the outer boundary of the cell nest. No cross-striated collagen fibers were observed in the extracellular matrix although proteoglycan appeared to decorate a network of fine strands. Upon the addition of ascorbate to the nutrient media high molecular weight proteoglycans were synthesized, but there was a marked decrease in the synthesis of proteoglycans after a 10 day exposure to ascorbate. Morphologically, the decrease in proteoglycan synthesis was manifested in the discontinuous arrangement of the pericellular matrix as well as the diffuse form of the cell-nest boundary. Both of these structures were clearly defined in control cultures and were enriched in proteoglycan as demonstrated by ruthenium red staining. This study demonstrates that embryonic chondrocytes remain differentiated when cultured in solid agarose for a period of up to 15 days. They continue to synthesize their tissue specific macromolecules and are phenotypically stable when exposed to ascorbate for extended periods of time.     

Ecological Factors Influencing Nest Survival of Greater Sage-Grouse in Mono County,California

ABSTRACT We studied nest survival of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in 5 subareas of Mono County, California, USA, from 2003 to 2005 to 1) evaluate the importance of key vegetation variables for nest success, and 2) to compare nest success in this population with other greater sage-grouse populations. We captured and radiotracked females (n = 72) to identify nest sites and monitor nest survival. We measured vegetation at nest sites and within a 10-m radius around each nest to evaluate possible vegetation factors influencing nest survival. We estimated daily nest survival and the effect of explanatory variables on daily nest survival using nest-survival models in Program MARK. We assessed effects on daily nest survival of total, sagebrush (Artemisia spp.), and nonsagebrush live shrub-cover, Robel visual obstruction, the mean of grass residual height and grass residual cover measurements within 10 m of the nest shrub, and area of the shrub, shrub height, and shrub type at the nest site itself. Assuming a 38-day exposure period, we estimated nest survival at 43.4%, with percent cover of shrubs other than sagebrush as the variable most related to nest survival. Nest survival increased with increasing cover of shrubs other than sagebrush. Also, daily nest survival decreased with nest age, and there was considerable variation in nest survival among the 5 subareas. Our results indicate that greater shrub cover and a diversity of shrub species within sagebrush habitats may be more important to sage-grouse nest success in Mono County than has been reported elsewhere.     

Support for the nest mimicry hypothesis in Yellow-rumped Thornbills Acanthiza chrysorrhoa

The nest of the Yellow-rumped Thornbill Acanthiza chrysorrhoa (endemic to Australia) consists of a lower domed nest where the young are cared for and an upper cup-shaped structure, referred to as the false nest. Numerous hypotheses have been proposed to explain the primary function of the false nest, but their predictions remain largely untested. Here, we test predictions of the nest mimicry hypothesis (with artificial nests) whereby the empty false nest acts as a decoy, deflecting visual nest predators and/or brood parasites away from the true nest below, thereby increasing nesting success. Clear detection of the false nest by adversaries is an intrinsic aspect of nest mimicry; thus we also test whether conspicuous nests (natural) are favoured by natural selection. Specifically, (1) we compare predation level at artificial domed nests with and without a false nest; and (2) we analyse associations between nest site concealment and nesting outcome in natural nests in a wild population. Supporting the nest mimicry hypothesis, predation level was significantly lower for artificial domed nests with false nests, and for natural nests with lower levels of concealment.     

Nest site attributes and temporal patterns of northern flicker nest loss: effects of predation and competition

To date, most studies of nest site selection have failed to take into account more than one source of nest loss (or have combined all sources in one analysis) when examining nest site characteristics, leaving us with an incomplete understanding of the potential trade-offs that individuals may face when selecting a nest site. Our objectives were to determine whether northern flickers (Colaptes auratus) may experience a trade-off in nest site selection in response to mammalian nest predation and nest loss to a cavity nest competitor (European starling, Sturnus vulgaris). We also document within-season temporal patterns of these two sources of nest loss with the hypothesis that flickers may also be constrained in the timing of reproduction under both predatory and competitive influence. Mammalian predators frequently depredated flicker nests that were: lower to the ground, less concealed by vegetation around the cavity entrance and at the base of the nest tree, closer to coniferous forest edges and in forest clumps with a high percentage of conifer content. Proximity to coniferous edges or coniferous trees increased the probability of nest predation, but nests near conifers were less likely to be lost to starlings. Flickers may thus face a trade-off in nest site selection with respect to safety from predators or competitors. Models suggested that peaks of nest predation and nest loss to eviction occurred at the same time, although a competing model suggested that the peak of nest loss to starlings occurred 5 days earlier than the peak of mammalian predation. Differences in peaks of mammalian predation and loss to starlings may constrain any adjustment in clutch initiation date by flickers to avoid one source of nest loss.     

Effectiveness of nest defence in the Acadian Flycatcher Empidonax virescens

We used presentations of models to determine the effectiveness of nest defence in the Acadian Flycatcher Empidonax virescens against a nest predator (Blue Jay Cyanocitta cristata ) and a brood parasite (Brown-headed Cowbird Molothrus ater ). Principal components analysis (PCA) of four component variables of nest defence (call rate, swoop rate, closest approach and number of adults) generated a measure of overall nest defence (aggression). We determined effectiveness of defence by looking for correlations between measures of defence and measures of nest success (nest predation and brood parasitism). We also determined whether nest defence increased with clutch size, nestling age and time in the breeding season. Defence against model Brown-headed Cowbirds did not correlate with levels of parasitism, clutch size, age of young or time of breeding. There was, however, a strong, but insignificant, trend for nests with high levels of all measures of defence to suffer less from brood parasitism. Aggression, vocalization rate, closest approach and number of adults defending against models of predatory Blue Jays correlated positively with nesting success during the egg stage but not the nestling stage of the nesting cycle. Aggression, vocalization rate, closest approach correlated with clutch size and age of the brood. These results suggest that nest defence can effectively deter nest predators, but may be less effective against brood parasites. Different behavioural components of nest defence may work at different stages of the nest cycle and against different nest predators. The components of nest defence that correlated with nest success also correlated with clutch value, a result consistent with hypotheses on the evolution of nest defence.     

Breeding Phenology of Birds: Mechanisms Underlying Seasonal Declines in the Risk of Nest Predation

Seasonal declines in avian clutch size are well documented, but seasonal variation in other reproductive parameters has received less attention. For example, the probability of complete brood mortality typically explains much of the variation in reproductive success and often varies seasonally, but we know little about the underlying cause of that variation. This oversight is surprising given that nest predation influences many other life-history traits and varies throughout the breeding season in many songbirds. To determine the underlying causes of observed seasonal decreases in risk of nest predation, we modeled nest predation of Dusky Flycatchers (Empidonax oberholseri) in northern California as a function of foliage phenology, energetic demand, developmental stage, conspecific nest density, food availability for nest predators, and nest predator abundance. Seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was not associated with seasonal changes in energetic demand, conspecific nest density, or predator abundance. Instead, seasonal variation in the risk of nest predation was associated with foliage density (early, but not late, in the breeding season) and seasonal changes in food available to nest predators. Supplemental food provided to nest predators resulted in a numerical response by nest predators, increasing the risk of nest predation at nests that were near supplemental feeders. Our results suggest that seasonal changes in foliage density and factors associated with changes in food availability for nest predators are important drivers of temporal patterns in risk of avian nest predation.     

Variation in nest defense in ducks: methodological and biological insights

Studies of avian nest defense generally explain only a small proportion of the total variation in defense behavior. We explored two potential methodological sources of variation in nest defense in three species of ducks. One common method of quantifying nest defense rests on the assumption that different components of nest defense (e.g. flushing distance, distraction displays) are highly positively correlated. Defense behaviors we observed in this study were weakly related or unrelated to each other. Thus, the assumption of strong positive covariance between components of nest defense was not supported. We also considered the effect of repeated visits to the same nests on nest defense. Females of all three species took less risk defending their nests with repeated visits, and the effect of visit number on nest defense was greater than the effect of increasing value of nests associated with advancing incubation. Ducks appear to be different from other birds in the consistency with which they alter their nest defense in response to repeated nest visits. We propose that this could be a consequence of having nest predators that return to the vicinity of a nest if they were previously unsuccessful finding the nest, thus making repeated nest visits more dangerous to the ducks. By testing this or other hypotheses it should be possible to go beyond understanding the methodological implications of the effect of repeated visits on nest defense, and use this phenomenon to gain insight into the predator-prey interactions that underlie nest defense.     

Nest reuse in arctic‐breeding shorebirds: an analysis of potential benefits and factors affecting the occurrence of this rare behavior

During a 13‐yr study near Utqia?vik (formerly Barrow), Alaska, we documented the prevalence of nest reuse in eight arctic‐breeding shorebirds. We evaluated whether nest reuse saved individuals time and energy, enhanced nest survival, or was related to nest density. We documented 208 (6.2%) cases of nest reuse among 3336 nesting attempts. Nest reuse occurred in all years but the first and in all species, with greatest reuse in semipalmated sandpiper (10.9%) and American golden‐plover (10.0%). While most cases of nest reuse occurred with conspecifics, many cases of heterospecific nest reuse were also observed, indicating high niche overlap in nest site preferences among species. We found that individuals reusing old nests may have benefited by nesting earlier, but nest reuse did not generally enhance nest survival. A significant positive relationship was also found between nest reuse and nest density at the community level and for four of the eight species, suggesting high inter‐ or intraspecific competition combined with limited suitable nest sites may force individuals to reuse old nests. Our observations also suggest that upland nesting species may be the most dependent on old nest sites. Preferential development of these sites may therefore have a previously unknown detrimental effect on these species, although further study is needed to better determine the impact of such habitat loss.     

Nest predation increases with parental activity: separating nest site and parental activity effects.

Alexander Skutch hypothesized that increased parental activity can increase the risk of nest predation. We tested this hypothesis using ten open-nesting bird species in Arizona, USA. Parental activity was greater during the nestling than incubation stage because parents visited the nest frequently to feed their young during the nestling stage. However, nest predation did not generally increase with parental activity between nesting stages across the ten study species. Previous investigators have found similar results. We tested whether nest site effects might yield higher predation during incubation because the most obvious sites are depredated most rapidly. We conducted experiments using nest sites from the previous year to remove parental activity. Our results showed that nest sites have highly repeatable effects on nest predation risk; poor nest sites incurred rapid predation and caused predation rates to be greater during the incubation than nestling stage. This pattern also was exhibited in a bird species with similar (i.e. controlled) parental activity between nesting stages. Once nest site effects are taken into account, nest predation shows a strong proximate increase with parental activity during the nestling stage within and across species. Parental activity and nest sites exert antagonistic influences on current estimates of nest predation between nesting stages and both must be considered in order to understand current patterns of nest predation, which is an important source of natural selection.     

Relative effects of nest size and site on the risk of predation in open nesting passerines

Large nests may incur fitness cost in terms of conspicuousness to predators, but the effect of nest size on predation risk can be confounded by effects of nest site and parental characteristics. I examined relative effects of nest size and placement by experimentally exchanging subsets of inactive nests baited with artificial clutches, among three open-cup nesting passerine species characterized by different nest size, placement and predation rate. The prediction that increasing nest size (original nest replaced by nest of the larger species) would increase predation, while decreasing nest size (replacement by nest of the smaller species) would decrease predation, relative to control (replacement by conspecific nest) was not supported in any species. The prediction that predation should be higher for large nests compared to small ones, even after exchanging nests among species-specific sites, was not supported. Predation rate differed among species (combined site/nest effect) before manipulation, whereas only the effect of nest site was significant after manipulation. This means that predation differed between species-specific nest sites, irrespective of the nest placed at these sites, but not between large (thrush) and small (warbler) nests, irrespective of their placement. Results do not suggest that nest predation selects directionally for smaller nest size. This conclusion could be specific to the study system characterized by high nest densities and high predation rate.     

Testing ecological and behavioral correlates of nest predation

Variation in nest predation rates among bird species are assumed to reflect differences in risk that are specific to particular nest sites. Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that parental care behaviors can evolve in response to nest predation risk and thereby differ among ecological conditions that vary in inherent risk. However, parental care also can influence predation risk. Separating the effects of nest predation risk inherent to a nest site from the risk imposed by parental strategies is needed to understand the evolution of parental care. Here we identify correlations between risks inherent to nest sites, and risk associated with parental care behaviors, and use an artificial nest experiment to assess site-specific differences in nest predation risk across nesting guilds and between habitats that differed in nest predator abundance. We found a strong correlation between parental care behaviors and inherent differences in nest predation risk, but despite the absence of parental care at artificial nests, patterns of nest predation risk were similar for real and artificial nests both across nesting guilds and between predator treatments. Thus, we show for the first time that inherent risk of nest predation varies with nesting guild and predator abundance independent of parental care.     

Facultative nest patch shifts in response to nest predation risk in the Brewer’s sparrow: a “win-stay, lose-switch” strategy?

Facultative shifts in nesting habitat selection in response to perceived predation risk may allow animals to increase the survival probability of sessile offspring. Previous studies on this behavioral strategy have primarily focused on single attributes, such as the distance moved or changes in nesting substrate. However, nest site choice often encompasses multiple habitat elements at both the nest site and nest patch scales. We studied the within-season re-nesting strategy of a multi-brooded songbird, the Brewer’s sparrow (Spizella breweri), to determine whether pairs utilized a “win-stay, lose-switch” decision rule with respect to inter-nest distance, nest substrate and/or nest patch characteristics in response to previous nest fate. Pairs moved sequential nest sites slightly farther following nest predation versus success. When inter-nest distance was controlled, however, pairs changed nest patch attributes (shrub height, potential nest shrub density) associated with probability of nest predation to a greater extent following nest predation than success. The strategy appeared to be adaptive; daily nest survival probability for previously depredated pairs increased with greater Euclidian habitat distances between attempts, whereas previously successful pairs were more likely to fledge second attempts when nest sites were similar to those of previous attempts. Our results suggest that nesting birds can use prior information and within-season plasticity in response to nest predation to increase re-nesting success, which may be a critical behavioral strategy within complex nest predator environments. Re-nesting site selection strategies also appeared to integrate multiple habitat components and inter-nest distances. The consideration of such proximate, facultative responses to predation risk may clarify often unexplained variation in habitat preferences and requirements.     

The importance of odor in nest site selection by a lodger bee, Centris Bicornuta Mocsáry (Hymenoptera: Apidae) in the dry forest of Costa Rica

The more common lodger bee occurring in the dry forest of Costa Rica, Centris bicornuta Muscáry), has been observed nesting in new nest cavities drilled into wooden blocks placed next to cavities used by another female within 2-3 days. In contrast, new nest cavities placed in similar areas with no nesting Centris nearby were not used for weeks. These observations suggest that the presence of nesting bees may play a role in nest site selection. To confirm our observations, new nest cavities were placed in areas with or without nesting. We found nest initiation in newly placed nest cavities only in areas where bees were actively nesting. To examine the possibility that nesting locations are not unique, we placed new nest cavities in new locations either with (a) a number of completed nest cavities or (b) placed alone. Within three days we only found bees nesting in the newly placed nest cavities in situation "a". The results suggested that odor might be involved. We next compared nesting in new cavities placed alone with cavities contaminated with either (a) nest entrance plug material, (b) nest nectar, (c) nest pollen or (d) a combination of pollen and nectar. Nesting was significantly low in cavities placed next to cavities with nest entrance plug material (a), and high in cavities placed next to cavities "b, c, or d". The results suggest that pollen and /or nectar odor play a role in the location of potential nest sites.     

Parent birds assess nest predation risk: influence of cavity condition and avian nest predator activity

Skutch hypothesized that nest predators visually assess parental activities to locate a prey nest, whereas parents modify fitness‐related traits to reduce the probability of nest predation. We examined how cavity condition and parental activity interact with avian nest predators to shape the nest success of two coexisting parid species, marsh tits Poecile palustris and oriental tits Parus minor, breeding in nest‐boxes during the incubation period. Nest‐boxes were manipulated to create a prolonged risk of nest predation (entrance diameter 2.6 cm control vs 5.5 cm treatment) soon after clutch completion. To measure changes in parental behavior, we also simultaneously simulated a pulsed risk of nest predation, using sound playbacks of a coexisting control bird and an avian nest predator. We found that the parent tits merely responded the pulsed risk, presumably due to an environment with high avian nest predator encounters, compared to the prolonged risk. Instead, both species spent more time on vigilance at the nest, only under prolonged risk conditions. The activity of corvids near the nest‐box was higher in the marsh tit than that in oriental tits. This activity was also higher in the treatment nest box than that in the control nest‐box. Nest predation during the incubation period was higher in marsh tits than in oriental tits, presumably due to higher and more plastic vigilance in oriental tits, compared to marsh tits. Our results highlight that the differences in cavity condition and parental activities at the nests of two coexisting non‐excavators may contribute to differential nest predation by attracting avian nest predators.     

Comparative nest survival of three sympatric loon species breeding in the Arctic

Identifying factors influencing nest survival among sympatric species is important for understanding and managing sources of variation in population dynamics of individual species. Three species of loons nest sympatrically in northern Alaska and differ in body size, life history characteristics, and population trends. We tested the effects of competition, nest site selection, and water level variations on nest survival of Pacific Gavia pacifica, yellow‐billed G. adamsii, and red‐throated loons G. stellata on the Arctic Coastal Plain in Alaska. Although overall nest survival rates did not differ between species, the factors influencing nest survival varied. Nest site selection influenced nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons, with both species having high nest survival when nesting on islands and peninsulas, likely due to a reduction in access by terrestrial predators. However, on mainland shorelines, Pacific loons had lower nest survival than yellow‐billed loons, and used a higher proportion of vegetation mats for nest sites suggesting that their smaller body size makes them less adept at nest defense. Nest site selection did not influence nest survival of red‐throated loons corresponding to our result of no nest site preferences by this species. Initiation date had a strong influence on nest survival for Pacific and yellow‐billed loons with nests laid earlier having higher survival. Pacific and yellow‐billed loon nests were susceptible to flooding due to precipitation, which contrasted with red‐throated loons that nest on smaller lakes with lower water level variations. Competition did not affect nest survival for any of the species likely due to most territorial encounters occurring prior to incubation. The only influence we found on red‐throated loon nest survival was differences among years. Our results indicate that loons chose nest sites based on predation risk and that factors influencing breeding success of closely related species may differ under similar breeding conditions.     

Flea burden and its influence on nest selection and use in Dryomys nitedula Pallas, 1778

Since dormice usually use natural tree hollows or artificial nest boxes as nest sites and these nests are reused from 1 year to another, the present study investigated how the parasite loads from old nests affected the behaviour of the forest dormouse Dryomys nitedula Pallas, 1778. Dormice were subjected to three different experiments: 1. They were given the choice of a nest box infected with ectoparasites and a new unused nest box; 2. Dormice were given the choice of a treated (uninfected) previously used nest boxes and previously used nest box that was infected; and 3. Using infrared motion sensor cameras, we tested weather they preferred to avoid nest boxes when only infected nests were available. The results revealed that the females with pups are pickier when choosing the nursery site. These preferred empty nest boxes or nest boxes with treated nests instead of the infested ones. However, non-breeding adults and sub-adults showed indifference to the flea infestation of the nest.     

Appearance and vulnerability of artificial duck nests to avian predators

Use of artificial nests in studies of nest success in birds has become increasingly popular, but this practice has been criticised because the appearance and success of artificial nests may differ from natural nests. Typically, artificial nests are presented with few visible eggs throughout the entire exposure period while natural nests during their life have different appearances, possibly producing stage-dependent predation rates. In ducks, nests may appear with openly visible eggs, eggs covered with nest material and covered by an incubating female. To test how nest appearance may affect nest survival, I simulated such duck nest appearances, and used direct observations to record responses of marsh harriers Circus aeruginosus , the dominant duck nest predator at the Lake Engure, Latvia, during the breeding seasons 2000–2002. I recorded 274 harrier flights over all types of artificial nests, 74 nest discoveries and 54 predation events. Logistic regression analyses showed that nest appearance was a significant predictor of the fate of the nest: nests with openly visible eggs were discovered more often than nests covered with nest material. Nests with dummy females had discovery rates similar to the average of all artificial nest types suggesting that they best reflect the predation risk of artificial nests and could be used in future studies. After discovering nests covered with dummy females, harriers never attacked but tried to scare them off to get access to the eggs. In 52% of cases of nest discovery, harriers gave up before touching the dummy. This shows that duck passive nest defence may prevent clutch predation.     

Density-dependent nest predation in waterfowl: the relative importance of nest density versus nest dispersion

When nest predation levels are very high or very low, the absolute range of observable nest success is constrained (a floor/ceiling effect), and it may be more difficult to detect density-dependent nest predation. Density-dependent nest predation may be more detectable in years with moderate predation rates, simply because there can be a greater absolute difference in nest success between sites. To test this, we replicated a predation experiment 10 years after the original study, using both natural and artificial nests, comparing a year when overall rates of nest predation were high (2000) to a year with moderate nest predation (2010). We found no evidence for density-dependent predation on artificial nests in either year, indicating that nest predation is not density-dependent at the spatial scale of our experimental replicates (1-ha patches). Using nearest-neighbor distances as a measure of nest dispersion, we also found little evidence for "dispersion-dependent" predation on artificial nests. However, when we tested for dispersion-dependent predation using natural nests, we found that nest survival increased with shorter nearest-neighbor distances, and that neighboring nests were more likely to share the same nest fate than non-adjacent nests. Thus, at small spatial scales, density-dependence appears to operate in the opposite direction as predicted: closer nearest neighbors are more likely to be successful. We suggest that local nest dispersion, rather than larger-scale measures of nest density per se, may play a more important role in density-dependent nest predation.     

Nest cavity orientation in black‐capped chickadees Poecile atricapillus: do the acoustic properties of cavities influence sound reception in the nest and extra‐pair matings?

Birds that nest in cavities may regulate nest microclimate by orienting their nest entrance relative to the sun or prevailing winds. Alternatively, birds may orient their nest entrance relative to conspecific individuals around them, especially if the acoustic properties of cavities permit nesting birds to better hear individuals in front of their nest. We measured the cavity entrance orientation of 132 nests and 234 excavations in a colour‐banded population of black‐capped chickadees Poecile atricapillus for which the reproductive behaviour of nesting females was known. Most chickadees excavated cavities in rotten birch Betula papyrifera, aspen Populus tremuloides and maple Acer saccharum. Nest cavities showed random compass orientation around 360° demonstrating that chickadees do not orient their cavities relative to the sun or prevailing winds. We also presented chickadees with nest boxes arranged in groups of four, oriented at 90° intervals around the same tree. Nests constructed in these nest box quartets also showed random compass orientation. To test the acoustic properties of nest cavities, we conducted a sound transmission experiment using a microphone mounted inside a chickadee nest. Re‐recorded songs demonstrate that chickadee nest cavities have directional acoustic properties; songs recorded with the cavity entrance oriented towards the loudspeaker were louder than songs recorded with the cavity entrance oriented away from the loudspeaker. Thus, female chickadees, who roost inside their nest cavity in the early morning during their fertile period, should be better able to hear males singing the dawn chorus in front of their nest cavity. Using GIS analyses we tested for angular‐angular correlation between actual nest cavity orientation and the azimuth from the nest tree to the territories and nest cavities of nearby males. In general, nest cavity entrances showed no angular‐angular correlation with neighbourhood territory features. However, among birds who followed a mixed reproductive strategy and nested in the soft wood of birch and aspen trees, nest cavity entrances were oriented towards their extra‐pair partners. We conclude that nest cavity orientation in birds may be influenced by both ecological and social factors.     

Robust assessment of associations between weather and eastern wild turkey nest success

Temperature and precipitation have been identified as factors that potentially influence eastern wild turkey (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) reproduction, but robust analyses testing the relationship between weather parameters and turkey nest success are lacking. Therefore, we assessed how weather influenced turkey daily nest survival using 8 years of data collected from 715 nests across the southeastern United States. We also conducted exploratory analyses investigating if weather conditions during or prior to nesting best predicted nest success. We then assessed the possible implications of climate change through 2041–2060 for future eastern wild turkey daily nest survival and nest success for variables determined significant in analyses. During incubation, positive anomalies of minimum daily temperature were associated with greater daily nest survival. Precipitation during nesting was not a good predictor of daily nest survival. Exploratory analyses unexpectedly indicated that weather conditions in January prior to incubation were more important to nest success than weather conditions during incubation. In January, negative anomalies of minimum temperature and greater average daily precipitation were associated with greater nest success. Projections of future nest success or daily nest survival based on these relationships with the predictive covariates, and informed by climate models, suggest that nest success may increase as January precipitation increases and that daily nest survival may increase as temperature during incubation increases. These positive associations could be offset by a negative association between nest success and the expected increases in January minimum average temperature. Additional research is needed to investigate causes of these relationships and assess the implications of climate change for eastern wild turkey poult survival.