Rabies in raccoons: optimal control for a discrete time model on a spatial grid

An epidemic model for rabies in raccoons is formulated with discrete time and spatial features. The goal is to analyze the strategies for optimal distribution of vaccine baits to minimize the spread of the disease and the cost of implementing the control. Discrete optimal control techniques are used to derive the optimality system, which is then solved numerically to illustrate various scenarios.     

Predictive spatial dynamics and strategic planning for raccoon rabies emergence in Ohio

Rabies is an important public health concern in North America because of recent epidemics of a rabies virus variant associated with raccoons. The costs associated with surveillance, diagnostic testing, and post-exposure treatment of humans exposed to rabies have fostered coordinated efforts to control rabies spread by distributing an oral rabies vaccine to wild raccoons. Authorities have tried to contain westward expansion of the epidemic front of raccoon-associated rabies via a vaccine corridor established in counties of eastern Ohio, western Pennsylvania, and West Virginia. Although sporadic cases of rabies have been identified in Ohio since oral rabies vaccine distribution in 1998, the first evidence of a significant breach in this vaccine corridor was not detected until 2004 in Lake County, Ohio. Herein, we forecast the spatial spread of rabies in Ohio from this breach using a stochastic spatial model that was first developed for exploratory data analysis in Connecticut and next used to successfully hind-cast wave-front dynamics of rabies spread across New York. The projections, based on expansion from the Lake County breach, are strongly affected by the spread of rabies by rare, but unpredictable long-distance translocation of rabid raccoons; rabies may traverse central Ohio at a rate 2.5-fold greater than previously analyzed wildlife epidemics. Using prior estimates of the impact of local heterogeneities on wave-front propagation and of the time lag between surveillance-based detection of an initial rabies case to full-blown epidemic, specific regions within the state are identified for vaccine delivery and expanded surveillance effort.     

The effect of seasonal harvesting on stage-structured population models

In most models of population dynamics, increases in population due to birth are assumed to be time-independent, but many species reproduce only during a single period of the year. We propose an exploited single-species model with stage structure for the dynamics in a fish population for which births occur in a single pulse once per time period. Since birth pulse populations are often characterized with a discrete time dynamical system determined by its Poincaré map, we explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under seasonal dependence and obtain threshold conditions for their stability, and show that the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the persistence of the fish population, on the volume of mature fish stock and on the maximum annual-sustainable yield. Moreover, our results imply that the population can sustain much higher harvest rates if the mature fish is removed as early in the season (after the birth pulse) as possible. Further, the effects of harvesting effort and harvest timing on the dynamical complexity are also investigated. Bifurcation diagrams are constructed with the birth rate (or harvesting effort or harvest timing) as the bifurcation parameter, and these are observed to display rich structure, including chaotic bands with periodic windows, pitch-fork and tangent bifurcations, non-unique dynamics (meaning that several attractors coexist) and attractor crisis. This suggests that birth pulse, in effect, provides a natural period or cyclicity that makes the dynamical behavior more complex.This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (10171106)     

Oral vaccination against raccoon rabies: landscape heterogeneity and timing of distribution influence wildlife contact rates with the ONRAB vaccine bait

Aerial distribution of oral vaccine baits is one of the available strategies for controlling the spread of infectious wildlife diseases. This technique has commonly been used to control rabies in wild carnivores and, together with other techniques, was used to immunize wild populations of raccoons (Procyon lotor) and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis) after the detection of the first rabid raccoon in the province of Quebec, Canada, in 2006. Vaccine bait distribution was conducted over large areas where agricultural land is dominant but interspersed with residual forest patches. Our objective was to evaluate the effect of habitat (forest vs. agricultural crops) in space and time on the contact rate between wildlife and the ONRAB(?) vaccine bait, a recent alternative to the V-RG(?). Four transects of eight vaccine baits each were installed parallel to, and at different distances from, the forest's edge (under forest cover, at field-forest edge, and at 50 and 200 m from forest edge in agricultural crops) at three sites composed of various crop types interspersed with forest patches. This experiment was conducted during three periods (late spring, 1-7 June; summer, 27 July-2 August; and fall, 24-30 October) in 2009. Contact rates with vaccine baits were monitored for 7 days in each period to evaluate the potential temporal variations generated within the habitat types. Contact rates with ONRAB vaccine baits were highest under forest cover and in the fall. Of 13 species observed in proximity to the vaccine baits, raccoons were the most frequent (49.5%, n=55 visits). Our study underlines the importance of taking into account landscape heterogeneity and timing of distribution when planning the distribution of vaccine baits to control rabies in raccoons.     

Proposed field evaluation of a rabies recombinant vaccine for raccoons (Procyon lotor): site selection, target species characteristics, and placebo baiting trials

Prior to a limited field application of an orally-administered vaccinia-rabies glycoprotein (V-RG) recombinant virus vaccine for wildlife, background data were obtained for the proposed site on Parramore Island, Virginia (USA). Mammalian target and nontarget species, potentially at risk for exposure to vaccine were inventoried. Placebo baiting trials with a fishmeal polymer bait resulted in high bait disturbance (88 to 100%), primarily by raccoons (Procyon lotor), with infrequent visitation and no evidence of bait consumption by deer (Odocoileus virginianus), small mammals or avian species. Definitive bait acceptance rates by raccoons (indicative of bait ingestion) were difficult to accurately determine based exclusively on premolar and vibrissae samples collected antemortem from live-trapped raccoons for tetracycline and rhodamine B biomarker analyses, respectively. Bait acceptance rate was more accurately determined during a pilot baiting trial conducted on North Island, South Carolina, when mandibles (postmortem samples) were examined for tetracycline incorporation. Parasitologic findings in raccoons on Parramore Island included Hepatozoan procyonis, Phagicola angrense and Physaloptera rara and a variety of incidental microscopic lesions, and provided baseline pathological data for comparison subsequent to V-RG vaccine application. A population density estimate of one raccoon/2.7 ha was calculated using mark-recapture data for comparison after vaccine deployment. Limited reproductive data, including estimates of pregnancy rates by palpation, the number of live kits/litter live-trapped with previously pregnant raccoons or observed in the dens of radio-collared raccoons, was gathered to assess the effect of proposed oral vaccination with V-RG vaccine. Home ranges were assessed by radio-telemetry of 15 raccoons; all radio-collared raccoons currently reside on Parramore Island.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)     

Epidemiology of raccoon rabies in Virginia, 1984 to 1989.

Geographical and temporal trends in reports of rabid raccoons (Procyon lotor) in Virginia were summarized for 1984 to 1989; 3,256 raccoons were submitted for rabies testing, of which 1,053 (32.3%) had rabies. Both the absolute number of rabid raccoons and the percent of rabid raccoons (number rabid divided by number submitted) were examined for seasonal and yearly trends. Geographically, the epidemic moved eastward and southward in the state. The seasonal trend showed bimodal peaks in late winter and early fall and a seasonal low in summer. The percent of rabies positive raccoons peaked 1 mo earlier than the absolute number of rabies positive raccoons. The peak in the number of rabies positive raccoons occurred in 1987, while the percent of rabies positive raccoons peaked in 1986. These trends were used to recommend timing and placement of oral vaccine as one strategy to control raccoon rabies in wildlife.     

Prerequisites for oral immunization of free-ranging raccoons (Procyon lotor) with a recombinant rabies virus vaccine: study site ecology and bait system development.

A model baiting system suitable for the delivery of an oral rabies vaccine to free-ranging raccoons (Procyon lotor) was developed and tested on barrier islands in South Carolina (USA). Features of barrier island physiography and ecology were studied relative to selective bait deployment and site biosecurity. Capture-mark-recapture data were obtained from 228 raccoons. Raccoon density estimates, using a modified census assessment technique, were one raccoon per 1.8 to 2.7 ha. Mean (+/- SE) and range home area estimates of radio-collared raccoons were 84 (+/- 15.6) ha (27 to 176 ha) by a minimum convex polygon method and 138 (+/- 22.8) ha (43 to 241 ha), by a harmonic mean transformation method. Habitat utilization determinations of radio-collared raccoons were conducted to identify study areas to potentially maximize selectivity of bait towards raccoons and to reduce the absolute number of baits deployed. Island raccoons showed a habitat preference for maritime forest, maritime shrub and marsh areas. Additionally, there was no evidence of inter-island or mainland exchange of ear-tagged or radio-collared raccoons. A disease and mortality survey was conducted to identify baseline pathology and incidental lesions in the target raccoon population, prior to actual vaccination initiation. Thirty-eight percent of 30 clinically suspect raccoons sampled had intracytoplasmic eosinophilic inclusions diagnostic of canine distemper; no other lesions suggestive of viral etiologies were found. Serological surveys for raccoon poxvirus and rabies virus antibodies were negative. Antibody titers to canine adenovirus 1 and 2 indicated a moderate level of exposure (approximately 10 to 16%) in the raccoon population. Overall, 93 to 100% of placebo baits were consistently disturbed by 7 days post-bait deployment, and bait acceptance rates by raccoons ranged from 49 to 85%, by using a modular systems approach to select the optimum combination of bait attractant, biomarker, matrix, density, and distribution. These results suggest that a large proportion (up to 85%) of a free-ranging island raccoon population can be selectively and safely targeted, marked and monitored utilizing a proposed oral bait delivery system for recombinant or other rabies vaccines.     

Land use associations and changes in population indices of urban raccoons during a rabies epizootic

Land use associations and changes in population indices were assessed for an urban population of raccoons (Procyon lotor) in Baltimore, Maryland (USA), from January 1984 to December 1987. Records were examined for 1,458 raccoons trapped alive and removed dead from city streets during, and after, the peak of a rabies epizootic. The distribution of raccoons was associated with single-unit residential areas primarily along the northern and western perimeter of the city. Beginning in March 1985 an ending in May 1987, an epizootic of raccoon rabies spread through Baltimore, ultimately resulting in the identification of 95 rabid raccoons. Within the study interval, annual numbers of trapped raccoons remained stable from 1984 to 1986, before showing a marked decline in 1987. The number of raccoons removed as vehicle mortalities (road-kills) varied little from 1984-1985 but declined in the last 2 yr of study. Numbers of other road-killed species did not decrease concurrently, suggesting a specific decrease in the urban raccoon population. The rabies epizootic, in conjunction with the increased city and private control, appears to have contributed to a decline in the number of raccoons in Baltimore.     

Birth Timing for Mountain Lions (Puma concolor); Testing the Prey Availability Hypothesis

We investigated potential advantages in birth timing for mountain lion (Puma concolor) cubs. We examined cub body mass, survival, and age of natal dispersal in relation to specific timing of birth. We also investigated the role of maternal age relative to timing of births. We captured mountain lion cubs while in the natal den to determine birth date, which allowed for precise estimates of the population birth pulse and age of natal dispersal. A birth pulse occurred during June–August. Body mass of cubs was related to litter size and timing of birth; heaviest cubs occurred in litters of 2, and those born after 1 July. Cubs born within pulse months exhibited similar survival to those born out of the pulse. We found that cubs born April–June dispersed at younger ages than those born after 1 July. There was less variation in birth timing for 1^st litters of females than older females. We hypothesize that cubs born after the peak in births of neonate prey are advantaged by the abundance of vulnerable prey and those cubs and mothers realize an evolutionary advantage.     

Optimal control of the spatial allocation of COVID-19 vaccines: Italy as a case study

While campaigns of vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 are underway across the world, communities face the challenge of a fair and effective distribution of a limited supply of doses. Current vaccine allocation strategies are based on criteria such as age or risk. In the light of strong spatial heterogeneities in disease history and transmission, we explore spatial allocation strategies as a complement to existing approaches. Given the practical constraints and complex epidemiological dynamics, designing effective vaccination strategies at a country scale is an intricate task. We propose a novel optimal control framework to derive the best possible vaccine allocation for given disease transmission projections and constraints on vaccine supply and distribution logistics. As a proof-of-concept, we couple our framework with an existing spatially explicit compartmental COVID-19 model tailored to the Italian geographic and epidemiological context. We optimize the vaccine allocation on scenarios of unfolding disease transmission across the 107 provinces of Italy, from January to April 2021. For each scenario, the optimal solution significantly outperforms alternative strategies that prioritize provinces based on incidence, population distribution, or prevalence of susceptibles. Our results suggest that the complex interplay between the mobility network and the spatial heterogeneities implies highly non-trivial prioritization strategies for effective vaccination campaigns. Our work demonstrates the potential of optimal control for complex and heterogeneous epidemiological landscapes at country, and possibly global, scales.     

A comparison of methods for estimating raccoon abundance: Implications for disease vaccination programs

Accurate estimates of demographic parameters are critical to the management of wildlife populations, including management programs focused on controlling the spread of zoonotic diseases. Rabies managers in the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) have applied a simple raccoon (Procyon lotor) abundance index (RAI) based on cumulative catch of unique raccoons per unit area to determine vaccine-bait distribution densities. This approach was designed to allow for both the collection of biological samples and to index raccoon abundance to determine bait densities for oral rabies programs. However, post-baiting surveillance data indicate that, on average, only 30% of raccoons sampled have vaccine induced rabies antibody titers, suggesting that bait densities may not be well calibrated to raccoon densities. We trapped raccoons using both capture-mark-recapture (CMR) and the standard RAI to evaluate the accuracy of the current index-based methodology for estimating raccoon density. We then developed a resource selection function from spatial data collected from radio-collared raccoons to standardize trap placement within the existing RAI protocol, and evaluated the performance of this modified RAI approach relative to CMR for estimating raccoon population size. Both abundance and density estimates derived using the RAI consistently underestimated raccoon population sizes compared with CMR methods. Similarly, although the use of resource selection models to inform trap placement appeared to improve the accuracy of the RAI, the effectiveness of this method was inconsistent because of an inability to account for variance in detection probabilities. Despite the logistical advantages of using indices to estimate population parameters to determine vaccine bait distribution densities, our results suggest that adjustments may be necessary to more accurately quantify raccoon abundance, which should improve the effectiveness of rabies management in the United States. In particular, estimates of detection probabilities are needed to more precisely quantify abundance estimates and ensure appropriate vaccine coverage rates. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Adult raccoon survival in an enzootic rabies area of Pennsylvania

Twenty-one adult raccoons (Procyon lotor) were radio-marked on each of two areas in Centre County, Pennsylvania from 17 June to 23 August 1987. Raccoons on Area 1 were vaccinated with a commercial inactivated rabies virus vaccine administered intramuscularly, whereas on Area 2 raccoons were not vaccinated. Survival rates were estimated for three periods: pre-season (23 August to 23 October 1987), harvest season (24 October 1987 to 23 January 1988) and post-season (24 January to 26 March 1988). Kaplan-Meier survival rates (+/- SE) were 1.00 +/- 0.00 for both areas during the pre- and post-season periods. Survival rates during the harvest period were 0.67 +/- 0.11 and 0.69 +/- 0.11 for Area 1 and Area 2, respectively. Survival rates between the two areas were not different (P = 0.929). During 23 August 1987 to 26 March 1988, rabies was not an apparent factor in raccoon survival. Conclusions regarding timing an oral rabies vaccination campaign based upon occurrence of rabies-related mortalities could not be presented because of the lack of obvious rabies mortality. However, our findings, combined with information about immunization, vaccine distribution, and peak periods of raccoon rabies, suggest a late winter or early spring vaccination period would be optimum for reducing the number of raccoons susceptible to rabies.     

Comparing ONRAB® AND RABORAL V-RG® oral rabies vaccine field performance in raccoons and striped skunks, New Brunswick, Canada, and Maine, USA

Control of rabies in mesocarnivore reservoirs through oral rabies vaccination (ORV) requires an effective vaccine bait. Oral rabies vaccine performance in the field may be affected by a variety of factors, including vaccine bait density and distribution pattern, habitat, target species population density, and the availability of competing foods. A field study in which these covariates were restricted as much as possible was conducted along the international border of the state of Maine (ME), USA, and the province of New Brunswick (NB), Canada, to compare the performance of two oral rabies vaccines in raccoons (Procyon lotor) and striped skunks (Mephitis mephitis). RABORAL V-RG(?) (vaccinia-rabies glycoprotein recombinant oral vaccine in fishmeal-coated sachet) or ONRAB(?) (adenovirus-rabies glycoprotein recombinant oral vaccine in Ultralite bait matrix) were distributed in ME and NB, respectively, by fixed-wing aircraft at a density of 75 baits/km(2) along parallel flight lines spaced 1.0 km apart. Sera were collected from live-trapped raccoons and skunks 5-7 wk post-ORV and assayed to determine antibody prevalence in each area. Duplicate serum samples were provided blind to two different laboratories for analyses by rabies virus serum neutralization assays (at both laboratories) and a competitive enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (at one laboratory). There was no significant difference in the proportion of antibody-positive animals determined by the three serologic methods, nor was there a significant difference between ONRAB and RABORAL V-RG in the proportion of antibody-positive striped skunks observed post-ORV. In contrast, the proportion of antibody-positive raccoons was significantly higher in the ONRAB- versus the RABORAL V-RG-baited areas (74% vs. 30%; χ(2)=89.977, df=5, P<0.0001). These data support that ONRAB may serve as an effective tool for raccoon rabies control.     

Oral efficacy of an attenuated rabies virus vaccine in skunks and raccoons

Raccoons and skunks are major rabies reservoirs in North America. Oral vaccination is one method to consider for disease control in these carnivores. Under field conditions in the USA, only one oral rabies vaccine has been used. It is efficacious in wildlife such as raccoons (Procyon lotor), coyotes (Canis latrans), and foxes (Vulpes vulpes) but not in skunks (Mephitis mephitis). The objectives of this study were to evaluate an attenuated SAG-2 rabies virus vaccine for safety, immunogenicity, and efficacy by the oral route in skunks and raccoons. Two of five skunks and three of five raccoons developed virus neutralizing antibodies (VNA) by day 14 following oral administration of SAG-2 vaccine. All animals remained healthy. Upon challenge, naive controls succumbed to rabies. Among vaccinated animals, four of five skunks and all five raccoons had VNA on day 7 post-challenge and all survived. Given these results, SAG-2 is a promising candidate vaccine that may satisfy both safety and efficacy concerns for oral rabies immunization of major North American rabies reservoirs.     

Exposure time of oral rabies vaccine baits relative to baiting density and raccoon population density

Oral rabies vaccination (ORV) baiting programs for control of raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies in the USA have been conducted or are in progress in eight states east of the Mississippi River. However, data specific to the relationship between raccoon population density and the minimum density of baits necessary to significantly elevate rabies immunity are few. We used the 22-km2 US National Aeronautics and Space Administration Plum Brook Station (PBS) in Erie County, Ohio, USA, to evaluate the period of exposure for placebo vaccine baits placed at a density of 75 baits/km2 relative to raccoon population density. Our objectives were to 1) estimate raccoon population density within the fragmented forest, old-field, and industrial landscape at PBS: and 2) quantify the time that placebo, Merial RABORAL V-RG vaccine baits were available to raccoons. From August through November 2002 we surveyed raccoon use of PBS along 19.3 km of paved-road transects by using a forward-looking infrared camera mounted inside a vehicle. We used Distance 3.5 software to calculate a probability of detection function by which we estimated raccoon population density from transect data. Estimated population density on PBS decreased from August (33.4 raccoons/km2) through November (13.6 raccoons/km2), yielding a monthly mean of 24.5 raccoons/km2. We also quantified exposure time for ORV baits placed by hand on five 1-km2 grids on PBS from September through October. An average 82.7% (SD = 4.6) of baits were removed within 1 wk of placement. Given raccoon population density, estimates of bait removal and sachet condition, and assuming 22.9% nontarget take, the baiting density of 75/ km2 yielded an average of 3.3 baits consumed per raccoon and the sachet perforated.     

Optimized timing of parasitoid release: a mathematical model for biological control of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Drosophila suzukii</Emphasis>

We present a model for the population dynamics of the invasive fruit fly Drosophila suzukii and its pupal parasitoid Trichopria drosophilae. Seasonality of the environment is captured through a system of delay differential equations with variable delays. The model is used to explore optimal timing for releasing parasitoids in biological control programs. According to the results, releasing parasitoids is most effective between late spring and early summer when the host population begins to increase. A single parasitoid release event can be more efficient than multiple releases over a prolonged period, but multiple releases are more robust to suboptimal timing choices. The findings can be useful for optimizing parasitoid release and should be transferable for similar systems. More generally, the model is an example for stage-structured resource-consumer dynamics in a varying environment.     

An age-structured epidemic model of rotavirus with vaccination

The recent approval of a rotavirus vaccine in Mexico motivates this study on the potential impact of the use of such a vaccine on rotavirus prevention and control. An age-structured model that describes the rotavirus transmission dynamics of infections is introduced. Conditions that guarantee the local and global stability analysis of the disease-free steady state distribution as well as the existence of an endemic steady state distribution are established. The impact of maternal antibodies on the implementation of vaccine is evaluated. Model results are used to identify optimal age-dependent vaccination strategies. A convergent numerical scheme for the model is introduced but not implemented. This paper is dedicated to Prof. K. P. Hadeler, who continues to push the frontier of knowledge in mathematical biology.     

Finding optimal vaccination strategies for pandemic influenza using genetic algorithms

In the event of pandemic influenza, only limited supplies of vaccine may be available. We use stochastic epidemic simulations, genetic algorithms (GA), and random mutation hill climbing (RMHC) to find optimal vaccine distributions to minimize the number of illnesses or deaths in the population, given limited quantities of vaccine. Due to the non-linearity, complexity and stochasticity of the epidemic process, it is not possible to solve for optimal vaccine distributions mathematically. However, we use GA and RMHC to find near optimal vaccine distributions. We model an influenza pandemic that has age-specific illness attack rates similar to the Asian pandemic in 1957-1958 caused by influenza A(H2N2), as well as a distribution similar to the Hong Kong pandemic in 1968-1969 caused by influenza A(H3N2). We find the optimal vaccine distributions given that the number of doses is limited over the range of 10-90% of the population. While GA and RMHC work well in finding optimal vaccine distributions, GA is significantly more efficient than RMHC. We show that the optimal vaccine distribution found by GA and RMHC is up to 84% more effective than random mass vaccination in the mid range of vaccine availability. GA is generalizable to the optimization of stochastic model parameters for other infectious diseases and population structures.     

Oral rabies vaccination of a northern Ohio raccoon population: relevance of population density and prebait serology

Ohio's oral rabies vaccination (ORV) program was established to prevent the westward spread of the raccoon (Procyon lotor) rabies virus (Lyssavirus, Rhabdoviridae) in Ohio, USA. The program, which targets raccoons, distributes vaccine-bait units (VBU) at a target density of 75 units/km2. Few studies have examined the relationship of VBU density and target population density to the prevalence of rabies virus-neutralizing antibodies (RVNA). We conducted experimental VBU distributions in August 2003 and August 2004, 150 km west of the ORV zone where there was no history of raccoon rabies. We measured change in RVNA titers in blood collected from live-trapped raccoons before and after VBU distributions. A closed population mark-recapture estimate of the size of the target population was 91 raccoons/km2, compared to the realized VBU distribution density of 70 units/km2. Surprisingly, 41% of 37 serum samples were RVNA-positive (>or=0.05 IU/ml) before VBU distribution in 2003, but all titers were <0.25 IU/ml. Although viable VBUs were distributed in August 2003, only 21% of 315 samples were RVNA-positive before VBU distribution in 2004, but 9% had titers>or=0.25 IU/ml. Tetracycline (biomarker in bait) prevalence in teeth indicated that 57% of raccoons ingested VBUs after distribution in 2003, and 54% ingested VBUs after distribution in 2004. However, only 8% and 11% of sera were positive for RVNA (>or=0.05 IU/ml) after VBU distribution in 2003 and 2004, respectively. Only 4-5% of sera collected after bait distribution had titers>or=0.25 IU/ml each year. The standard distribution density of 75 VBUs/km2 was insufficient to produce a population-wide immunoprotective response against rabies infection in our high-density target population. Presence of RVNA in a presumed na?ve population before baiting demonstrates that estimating prevalence of RVNA after oral rabies vaccination can be problematic without knowledge of background titers and seasonal changes in prevalence of RVNA before and after baiting.     

Human birth seasonality: latitudinal gradient and interplay with childhood disease dynamics

More than a century of ecological studies have demonstrated the importance of demography in shaping spatial and temporal variation in population dynamics. Surprisingly, the impact of seasonal recruitment on infectious disease systems has received much less attention. Here, we present data encompassing 78 years of monthly natality in the USA, and reveal pronounced seasonality in birth rates, with geographical and temporal variation in both the peak birth timing and amplitude. The timing of annual birth pulses followed a latitudinal gradient, with northern states exhibiting spring/summer peaks and southern states exhibiting autumn peaks, a pattern we also observed throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Additionally, the amplitude of United States birth seasonality was more than twofold greater in southern states versus those in the north. Next, we examined the dynamical impact of birth seasonality on childhood disease incidence, using a mechanistic model of measles. Birth seasonality was found to have the potential to alter the magnitude and periodicity of epidemics, with the effect dependent on both birth peak timing and amplitude. In a simulation study, we fitted an susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered model to simulated data, and demonstrated that ignoring birth seasonality can bias the estimation of critical epidemiological parameters. Finally, we carried out statistical inference using historical measles incidence data from New York City. Our analyses did not identify the predicted systematic biases in parameter estimates. This may be owing to the well-known frequency-locking between measles epidemics and seasonal transmission rates, or may arise from substantial uncertainty in multiple model parameters and estimation stochasticity.