Long delays and missed opportunities in diagnosing smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis in Kampala, Uganda: a cross-sectional study

Background

Early detection and treatment of tuberculosis cases are the hallmark of successful tuberculosis control. We conducted a cross-sectional study at public primary health facilities in Kampala city, Uganda to quantify diagnostic delay among pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) patients, assess associated factors, and describe trajectories of patients'' health care seeking.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Semi-structured interviews with new smear-positive PTB patients (≥15 years) registered for treatment. Between April 2007 and April 2008, 253 patients were studied. The median total delay was 8 weeks (IQR 4–12), median patient delay was 4 weeks (inter-quartile range [IQR] 1–8) and median health service delay was 4 weeks (IQR 2–8). Long total delay (>14 weeks) was observed for 61/253 (24.1%) of patients, long health service delay (>6 weeks) for 71/242 (29.3%) and long patient delay (>8 weeks) for 47/242 (19.4%). Patients who knew that TB was curable were less likely to have long total delay (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR] 0.28; 95%CI 0.11–0.73) and long patient delay (aOR 0.36; 95%CI 0.13–0.97). Being female (aOR 1.98; 95%CI 1.06–3.71), staying for more than 5 years at current residence (aOR 2.24 95%CI 1.18–4.27) and having been tested for HIV before (aOR 3.72; 95%CI 1.42–9.75) was associated with long health service delay. Health service delay contributed 50% of the total delay. Ninety-one percent (231) of patients had visited one or more health care providers before they were diagnosed, for an average (median) of 4 visits (range 1–30). All but four patients had systemic symptoms by the time the diagnosis of TB was made.

Conclusions/Significance

Diagnostic delay among tuberculosis patients in Kampala is common and long. This reflects patients waiting too long before seeking care and health services waiting until systemic symptoms are present before examining sputum smears; this results in missed opportunities for diagnosis.     

Perinatal mortality in eastern Uganda: a community based prospective cohort study

Background

To achieve a child mortality reduction according to millennium development goal 4, it is necessary to considerably reduce neonatal mortality. We report stillbirth and early neonatal mortality risks as well as determinants of perinatal mortality in Eastern Uganda.

Methods

A community-based prospective cohort study was conducted between 2006 and 2008. A total of 835 pregnant women were followed up for pregnancy outcome and survival of their children until 7 days after delivery. Mother''s residence, age, parity, bed net use and whether delivery took place at home were included in multivariable regression analyses to identify risk factors for perinatal death.

Results

The stillbirth risk was 19 per 1,000 pregnancies and the early neonatal death risk 22 per 1,000 live births. Overall, the perinatal mortality risk was 41 [95%CI: 27, 54] per 1,000 pregnancies. Of the deaths, 47% followed complicated deliveries and 24% preterm births. Perinatal mortality was 63/1,000 pregnancies among teenage mothers, 76/1,000 pregnancies among nulliparous women and 61/1,000 pregnancies among women delivering at home who, after controlling for potential confounders, had a 3.7 (95%CI: 1.8, 7.4) times higher perinatal mortality than women who gave birth in a health facility. This association was considerably stronger among nulliparous women [RR 8.0 (95%CI: 2.9, 21.6)] than among women with a previous live birth [RR 1.8 (95%CI: 0.7, 4.5)]. All perinatal deaths occurred among women who did not sleep under a mosquito net. Women living in urban slums had a higher risk of losing their babies than those in rural areas [RR: 2.7 (95%CI: 1.4, 5.3)].

Conclusion

Our findings strengthen arguments for ensuring that pregnant women have access to and use adequate delivery facilities and bed nets.     

Secondary attack rate of tuberculosis in urban households in Kampala, Uganda

Background

Tuberculosis is an ancient disease that continues to threaten individual and public health today, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. Current surveillance systems describe general risk of tuberculosis in a population but do not characterize the risk to an individual following exposure to an infectious case.

Methods

In a study of household contacts of infectious tuberculosis cases (n = 1918) and a community survey of tuberculosis infection (N = 1179) in Kampala, Uganda, we estimated the secondary attack rate for tuberculosis disease and tuberculosis infection. The ratio of these rates is the likelihood of progressive primary disease after recent household infection.

Results

The secondary attack rate for tuberculosis disease was 3.0% (95% confidence interval: 2.2, 3.8). The overall secondary attack rate for tuberculosis infection was 47.4 (95% confidence interval: 44.3, 50.6) and did not vary widely with age, HIV status or BCG vaccination. The risk for progressive primary disease was highest among the young or HIV infected and was reduced by BCG vaccination.

Conclusions

Early case detection and treatment may limit household transmission of M. tuberculosis. Household members at high risk for disease should be protected through vaccination or treatment of latent tuberculosis infection.     

Evaluation of in-house PCR for diagnosis of smear-negative pulmonary tuberculosis in Kampala, Uganda

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Nucleic acid amplification tests (NAATs) have offered hope for rapid diagnosis of tuberculosis (TB). However, their efficiency with smear-negative samples has not been widely studied in low income settings. Here, we evaluated in-house PCR assay for diagnosis of smear-negative TB using Lowenstein-Jensen (LJ) culture as the baseline test. Two hundred and five pulmonary TB (PTB) suspects with smear-negative sputum samples, admitted on a short stay emergency ward at Mulago Hospital in Kampala, Uganda, were enrolled. Two smear-negative sputum samples were obtained from each PTB suspect and processed simultaneously for identification of MTBC using in-house PCR and LJ culture. RESULTS: Seventy two PTB suspects (35%, 72/205) were LJ culture positive while 128 (62.4%, 128/205) were PCR-positive. The sensitivity and specificity of in-house PCR for diagnosis of smear-negative PTB were 75% (95% CI 62.6-85.0) and 35.9% (95% CI 27.2-45.3), respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 39% (95% CI 30.4-48.2) and 72.4% (95% CI 59.1-83.3), respectively, while the positive and negative likelihood ratios were 1.17 (95% CI 0.96-1.42) and 0.70 (95% CI 0.43-1.14), respectively.One hundred and seventeen LJ culture-negative suspects (75 PCR-positive and 42 PCR-negative) were enrolled for follow-up at 2 months. Of the PCR-positive suspects, 45 (60%, 45/75) were still alive, of whom 29 (64.4%, 29/45) returned for the follow-up visit; 15 (20%, 15/75) suspects died while another 15 (20%, 15/75) were lost to follow-up. Of the 42 PCR-negative suspects, 22 (52.4%, 22/42) were still alive, of whom 16 (72.7%, 16/22) returned for follow-up; 11 (26.2%, 11/42) died while nine (21.4%, 9/42) were lost to follow-up.Overall, more PCR-positive suspects were diagnosed with PTB during follow-up visits but the difference was not statistically significant (27.6%, 8/29 vs. 25%, 4/16, p = 0.9239). Furthermore, mortality was higher for the PCR-negative suspects but the difference was also not statistically significant (26.2% vs. 20% p = 0.7094). CONCLUSION: In-house PCR correlates poorly with LJ culture for diagnosis of smear-negative PTB. Therefore, in-house PCR may not be adopted as an alternative to LJ culture.     

First Things First: Effectiveness and Scalability of a Basic Prehospital Trauma Care Program for Lay First-Responders in Kampala,Uganda

Background

We previously showed that in the absence of a formal emergency system, lay people face a heavy burden of injuries in Kampala, Uganda, and we demonstrated the feasibility of a basic prehospital trauma course for lay people. This study tests the effectiveness of this course and estimates the costs and cost-effectiveness of scaling up this training.

Methods and Findings

For six months, we prospectively followed 307 trainees (police, taxi drivers, and community leaders) who completed a one-day basic prehospital trauma care program in 2008. Cross-sectional surveys and fund of knowledge tests were used to measure their frequency of skill and supply use, reasons for not providing aid, perceived utility of the course and kit, confidence in using skills, and knowledge of first-aid. We then estimated the cost-effectiveness of scaling up the program.At six months, 188 (62%) of the trainees were followed up. Their knowledge retention remained high or increased. The mean correct score on a basic fund of knowledge test was 92%, up from 86% after initial training (n = 146 pairs, p = 0.0016). 97% of participants had used at least one skill from the course: most commonly haemorrhage control, recovery position and lifting/moving and 96% had used at least one first-aid item. Lack of knowledge was less of a barrier and trainees were significantly more confident in providing first-aid. Based on cost estimates from the World Health Organization, local injury data, and modelling from previous studies, the projected cost of scaling up this program was $0.12 per capita or $25–75 per life year saved. Key limitations of the study include small sample size, possible reporter bias, preliminary local validation of study instruments, and an indirect estimate of mortality reduction.

Conclusions

Lay first-responders effectively retained knowledge on prehospital trauma care and confidently used their first-aid skills and supplies for at least six months. The costs of scaling up this intervention to cover Kampala are very modest. This may be a cost-effective first step toward developing formal emergency services in Uganda other resource-constrained settings. Further research is needed in this critical area of trauma care in low-income countries.     

Optimising informed consent for participants in a randomised controlled trial in rural Uganda: a comparative prospective cohort mixed-methods study

Background

Poor participant understanding of research information can be a problem in community interventional studies with rural African women, whose levels of illiteracy are high. This study aimed to improve the informed consent process for women living in rural eastern Uganda. We assessed the impact of alternative consent models on participants’ understanding of clinical trial information and their contribution to the informed consent process in rural Uganda.

Methods

The study applied a parallel mixed-methods design for a prospective comparative cohort, nested within a pilot study on the community distribution of an alcohol-based hand rub to prevent neonatal sepsis (BabyGel pilot trial). Women of at least 34 weeks’ pregnancy, suitable for inclusion in the BabyGel pilot trial, were recruited into this study from their homes in 13 villages in Mbale District. As part of the informed consent process, information about the trial was presented using one of three consent methods: standard researcher-read information, a slide show using illustrated text on a flip chart or a video showing the patient information being read as if by a newsreader in either English or the local language. In addition, all women received the patient information sheet in their preferred language. Each information-giving method was used in recruitment for 1 week. Two days after recruitment, women’s understanding of the clinical trial was evaluated using the modified Quality of Informed Consent (QuIC) tool. They were also shown the other two methods and their preference assessed using a 5-point Likert scale. Semi-structured interviews were administered to each participant. The interviews were audio-recorded, transcribed and translated verbatim, and thematically analysed.

Results

A total of 30 pregnant women in their homes participated in this study. Their recall of the trial information within the planned 48 h was assessed for the majority (90%, 27/30). For all three consent models, women demonstrated a high understanding of the study. There was no statistically significant difference between the slide-show message (mean 4.7; standard deviation, SD 0.47; range 4–5), video message (mean 4.9; SD 0.33; range 4–5) and standard method (mean 4.5; SD 0.53; range 4–5; all one-way ANOVA, p =?0.190). The slide-show message resulted in the most objective understanding of question items with the highest average QuIC score of 100 points. For women who had been recruited using any of the three models, the slide show was the most popular method, with a mean score for all items of not less than 4.2 (mean 4.8; SD 0.6; range 4–5). Most women (63%, 19/30) preferred the slide-show message, compared with 17% (5/30) and 20% (6/30) for the standard and video messages, respectively. The reasons given included the benefits of having pictures to aid understanding and the logical progression of the information.

Conclusion

Our results from this small study suggest that slide-show messages may be an effective and popular alternative way of presenting trial information to women in rural Uganda, many of whom have little or no literacy.

Trial registration

ISRCTN, ISRCTN67852437. Registered on 18 March 2018.

     

Four years of IVF/ICSI experience in Kampala (Uganda)

⁴Correspondence address. Zonlaan 49, 1700 Dilbeek, Belgium. E-mail: peterplatteau{at}telenet.be We all know that starting and running an ART clinic is not soeasy as some people might perceive from outside. Doing the samething in the middle of Africa is even more challenging as someevidences in the Western world are not so obvious in this partof the world. We started our clinic in Kampala in 2004. Theclinic was a converted apartment from a four flat building.In the beginning, we had difficulties with importing drugs,culture media and consumables; we had the feeling everybodywas against us. We overcame multiple power failures, night intrudersand a 20% masturbation failure, but once the first IVF/ICSIbabies were born, people started to believe in the project.At present, 250 IVF/ICSI cycles a year are done in batches,we have a successful embryo freezing programme, offer IUI/ICSIfor sero discordant HIV couples and have the first babies afterIVF, ICSI, testicular biopsy, embryo freezing, oocyte donationand surrogacy in Central Africa. The results are comparableto the ones in the Western world.     

Oral antimicrobial rinse to reduce mycobacterial culture contamination among tuberculosis suspects in Uganda: a prospective study

Rationale

Contamination by bacterial or fungal organisms reduces the effectiveness of mycobacterial culture for diagnosis of pulmonary tuberculosis (TB). We evaluated the effect of an anti-microbial and an anti-fungal oral rinse prior to expectoration on culture-contamination rates.

Methods

We enrolled a consecutive random sample of adults with cough for ≥2 weeks and suspected TB admitted to Mulago Hospital (Kampala, Uganda) between October 2008 and June 2009. We randomly assigned patients to oral rinse (60 seconds with chlorhexidine followed by 60 seconds with nystatin) vs. no oral rinse prior to initial sputum collection. Uganda National Tuberculosis Reference Laboratory technicians blinded to the method of sputum collection (with or without oral rinse) processed all sputum specimens for smear microscopy (direct Ziehl-Neelsen) and mycobacterial culture (Lowenstein-Jensen media).

Results

Of 220 patients enrolled, 177 (80%) were HIV-seropositive (median CD4-count 37 cells/uL, IQR 13–171 cells/uL). Baseline characteristics were similar between patients in the oral-rinse (N = 110) and no oral-rinse (N = 110) groups. The proportion of contaminated cultures was significantly lower in the oral-rinse group compared to the no oral-rinse group (4% vs. 15%, risk difference −11%, 95% CI −18 to −3%, p = 0.005). Oral rinse significantly reduced the proportion of contaminated cultures among HIV-infected patients (3% vs. 18%, risk difference −14%, 95% CI −23 to −6%, p = 0.002) but not HIV-uninfected (6% vs. 4%, risk difference 2%, 95% CI −12 to +15%, p = 0.81) patients. However, the proportion of smear-positive specimens (25% vs. 35%, p = 0.10) and culture-positive specimens (48% vs. 56%, p = 0.24) were lower in the oral-rinse compared to the no oral-rinse group, although the differences were not statistically significant.

Conclusions

Oral rinse prior to sputum expectoration is a promising strategy to reduce mycobacterial culture contamination in areas with high HIV prevalence, if strategies can be devised to reduce the adverse impact of oral rinse on smear- and culture-positivity.     

Quantifying greenhouse gases from the production,transportation and utilization of charcoal in developing countries: a case study of Kampala,Uganda

Purpose

This study aims to quantify greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the production, transportation and utilization of charcoal and to assess the possibilities of decreasing greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the charcoal industry in general in Uganda. It also aims to assess the emission intensity of the Ugandan “charcoal production” sector compared to that of some other major charcoal producing nations.

Methods

This work was done in accordance with ISO 14040 methodology for life-cycle assessment (LCA), using GABi 4.0—a software for life-cycle assessment. A cradle-to-grave study was conducted, excluding emissions arising from machinery use during biomass cultivation and harvesting. The distance from charcoal production locations to Kampala was estimated using ArcGIS 10.0 software and a GPS tool. Emission data from a modern charcoal production process (PYREG methane-free charcoal production equipment), which complies with the German air quality standards (TA-Luft), was compared with emissions from a traditional charcoal production process. Four coupled scenarios were modelled to account for differences in the quantity of greenhouse gases emitted from the “traditional charcoal production phase”, “improved charcoal production phase (biomass feedstock sourced sustainably and unsustainably)”, “transportation phase” and “utilization phase”. Data for this study was obtained via literature review and onsite measurements.

Results and discussion

The results showed that greenhouse gases emitted due to charcoal supply and use of traditional production technique in Kampala was 1,554,699 tCO₂eq, with the transportation phase accounting for approximately 0.15 % of total greenhouse gases emitted. The utilization phase (charcoal cookstoves) emitted 723,985 tCO₂eq (46.6 %), while the charcoal production phase emitted 828,316 tCO₂eq (53.3 %). Changing the charcoal production technology from a traditional method to an improved production method (PYREG charcoal process) resulted in greenhouse gases reductions for the city of 230,747 tCO₂eq; however, by using sustainably sourced biomass, this resulted in reductions of 801,817 tCO₂eq.

Conclusions

This study showcased and quantified possible GHG emission reduction scenarios for the charcoal industry in Uganda. The result of 3 tCO₂eq emitted per tonne of charcoal produced, using earth mound method, can be applied to other countries in Eastern Africa where similar charcoal production methods are used; this will allow for somewhat better regional estimates of the inventory of greenhouse gas emissions from the production of charcoal. The results of this study also suggests that the primary use of charcoal for cooking will lead to increases in GHG emissions and increases in deforestation on the long term, if legal frameworks are not made to ensure that biomass used for charcoal production is obtained via sustainable sources or if alternative cheap energy-generating technologies for cooking are not developed and deployed to the masses.     

Low job control and risk of coronary heart disease in Whitehall II (prospective cohort) study.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the association between adverse psychosocial characteristics at work and risk of coronary heart disease among male and female civil servants. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study (Whitehall II study). At the baseline examination (1985-8) and twice during follow up a self report questionnaire provided information on psychosocial factors of the work environment and coronary heart disease. Independent assessments of the work environment were obtained from personnel managers at baseline. Mean length of follow up was 5.3 years. SETTING: London based office staff in 20 civil service departments. SUBJECTS: 10,308 civil servants aged 35-55 were examined-6895 men (67%) and 3413 women (33%). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: New cases of angina (Rose questionnaire), severe pain across the chest, diagnosed ischaemic heart disease, and any coronary event. RESULTS: Men and women with low job control, either self reported or independently assessed, had a higher risk of newly reported coronary heart disease during follow up. Job control assessed on two occasions three years apart, although intercorrelated, had cumulative effects on newly reported disease. Subjects with low job control on both occasions had an odds ratio for any subsequent coronary event of 1.93 (95% confidence interval 1.34 to 2.77) compared with subjects with high job control at both occasions. This association could not be explained by employment grade, negative affectivity, or classic coronary risk factors. Job demands and social support at work were not related to the risk of coronary heart disease. CONCLUSIONS: Low control in the work environment is associated with an increased risk of future coronary heart disease among men and women employed in government offices. The cumulative effect of low job control assessed on two occasions indicates that giving employees more variety in tasks and a stronger say in decisions about work may decrease the risk of coronary heart disease.     

Early diagnosis of neuropathy in leprosy--comparing diagnostic tests in a large prospective study (the INFIR cohort study)

Background

Leprosy is the most frequent treatable neuromuscular disease. Yet, every year, thousands of patients develop permanent peripheral nerve damage as a result of leprosy. Since early detection and treatment of neuropathy in leprosy has strong preventive potential, we conducted a cohort study to determine which test detects this neuropathy earliest.

Methods and Findings

One hundred and eighty-eight multibacillary (MB) leprosy patients were selected from a cohort of 303 and followed for 2 years after diagnosis. Nerve function was evaluated at each visit using nerve conduction (NC), quantitative thermal sensory testing and vibrometry, dynamometry, monofilament testing (MFT), and voluntary muscle testing (VMT). Study outcomes were sensory and motor impairment detected by MFT or VMT. Seventy-four of 188 patients (39%) had a reaction, neuritis, or new nerve function impairment (NFI) event during a 2-year follow-up. Sub-clinical neuropathy was extensive (20%–50%), even in patients who did not develop an outcome event. Sensory nerve action potential (SNAP) amplitudes, compound motor action potential (CMAP) velocities, and warm detection thresholds (WDT) were most frequently affected, with SNAP impairment frequencies ranging from 30% (median) to 69% (sural). Velocity was impaired in up to 43% of motor nerves. WDTs were more frequently affected than cold detection thresholds (29% versus 13%, ulnar nerve). Impairment of SNC and warm perception often preceded deterioration in MF or VMT scores by 12 weeks or more.

Conclusions

A large proportion of leprosy patients have subclinical neuropathy that was not evident when only MFT and VMT were used. SNC was the most frequently and earliest affected test, closely followed by WDT. They are promising tests for improving early detection of neuropathy, as they often became abnormal 12 weeks or more before an abnormal monofilament test. Changes in MFT and VMT score mirrored changes in neurophysiology, confirming their validity as screening tests.     

Rapid, easy, and cheap randomization: prospective evaluation in a study cohort

Background

Incisional hernia is a frequent complication in abdominal surgery. This article describes the development of a prospective randomized clinical trial designed to determine whether watchful waiting is an acceptable alternative to surgical repair for patients with oligosymptomatic incisional hernia.

Methods/Design

This clinical multicenter trial has been designed to compare watchful waiting and surgical repair for patients with oligosymptomatic incisional hernia. Participants are randomized to watchful waiting or surgery and followed up for two years. The primary efficacy endpoint is pain/discomfort during normal activities as a result of the hernia or hernia repair two years after enrolment, as measured by the hernia-specific Surgical Pain Scales (SPS). The target sample size of six hundred thirty-six patients was calculated to detect non-inferiority of the experimental intervention (watchful waiting) in the primary endpoint. Sixteen surgical centers will take part in the study and have submitted their declaration of commitment giving the estimated number of participating patients per year. A three-person data safety monitoring board will meet annually to monitor and supervise the trial.

Discussion

To date, we could find no published data on the natural course of incisional hernias. To our knowledge, watchful waiting has never been compared to standard surgical repair as a treatment option for incisional hernias. A trial to compare the outcome of the two approaches in patients with oligosymptomatic incisional hernias is urgently needed to provide data that can facilitate the choice between treatment options. If watchful waiting was equal to surgical repair, the high costs of surgical repair could be saved. The design for such a trial is described here. This multicenter trial will be funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG). The ethics committee of the Charité has approved the study protocol. Approval has been obtained from ten study sites at time of this submission. The electronic Case Report Forms have been created. The first patient was to be randomized November 14^th, 2011. An initiation meeting took place in Berlin January 9^th, 2012.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT01349400     

Analysis of a tuberculosis model with a case study in Uganda

We consider a four-compartment tuberculosis model including exogenous reinfection. We derive sufficient conditions, in terms of the parameters of the system, which guarantee the occurrence of backward bifurcation. We also discuss the global stability of the endemic state by using a generalization of the Poincaré–Bendixson criterion. An application is given for the case of Internally Displaced People's Camps in North Uganda. The study suggests how important it is to provide qualitative indications on the threshold value of the population density in the area occupied by the camps, in order to possibly eradicate the disease.     

Analysis of a tuberculosis model with a case study in Uganda

We consider a four-compartment tuberculosis model including exogenous reinfection. We derive sufficient conditions, in terms of the parameters of the system, which guarantee the occurrence of backward bifurcation. We also discuss the global stability of the endemic state by using a generalization of the Poincaré-Bendixson criterion. An application is given for the case of Internally Displaced People's Camps in North Uganda. The study suggests how important it is to provide qualitative indications on the threshold value of the population density in the area occupied by the camps, in order to possibly eradicate the disease.     

Immune and endothelial activation markers and risk stratification of childhood pneumonia in Uganda: A secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study

BackgroundDespite the global burden of pneumonia, reliable triage tools to identify children in low-resource settings at risk of severe and fatal respiratory tract infection are lacking. This study assessed the ability of circulating host markers of immune and endothelial activation quantified at presentation, relative to currently used clinical measures of disease severity, to identify children with pneumonia who are at risk of death.Methods and findingsWe conducted a secondary analysis of a prospective cohort study of children aged 2 to 59 months presenting to the Jinja Regional Hospital in Jinja, Uganda between February 2012 and August 2013, who met the Integrated Management of Childhood Illness (IMCI) diagnostic criteria for pneumonia. Circulating plasma markers of immune (IL-6, IL-8, CXCL-10/IP-10, CHI3L1, sTNFR1, and sTREM-1) and endothelial (sVCAM-1, sICAM-1, Angpt-1, Angpt-2, and sFlt-1) activation measured at hospital presentation were compared to lactate, respiratory rate, oxygen saturation, procalcitonin (PCT), and C-reactive protein (CRP) with a primary outcome of predicting 48-hour mortality. Of 805 children with IMCI pneumonia, 616 had severe pneumonia. Compared to 10 other immune and endothelial activation markers, sTREM-1 levels at presentation had the best predictive accuracy in identifying 48-hour mortality for children with pneumonia (AUROC 0.885, 95% CI 0.841 to 0.928; p = 0.03 to p < 0.001) and severe pneumonia (AUROC 0.870, 95% CI 0.824 to 0.916; p = 0.04 to p < 0.001). sTREM-1 was more strongly associated with 48-hour mortality than lactate (AUROC 0.745, 95% CI 0.664 to 0.826; p < 0.001), respiratory rate (AUROC 0.615, 95% CI 0.528 to 0.702; p < 0.001), oxygen saturation (AUROC 0.685, 95% CI 0.594 to 0.776; p = 0.002), PCT (AUROC 0.650, 95% CI 0.566 to 0.734; p < 0.001), and CRP (AUROC 0.562, 95% CI 0.472 to 0.653; p < 0.001) in cases of pneumonia and severe pneumonia. The main limitation of this study was the unavailability of radiographic imaging.ConclusionsIn this cohort of Ugandan children, sTREM-1 measured at hospital presentation was a significantly better indicator of 48-hour mortality risk than other common approaches to risk stratify children with pneumonia. Measuring sTREM-1 at clinical presentation may improve the early triage, management, and outcome of children with pneumonia at risk of death.Trial registrationThe trial was registered at clinicaltrial.gov ({"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT 04726826","term_id":"NCT04726826"}}NCT 04726826).

Chloe R. McDonald and colleagues assess the ability of immune and endothelial activation markers to identify risk of death from pneumonia among children in Uganda.     

Research of the Holiday kind: Tabulating Ingestion of Mocha Solution (TIMS): a longitudinal prospective cohort study

The annual "Roll Up the Rim to Win" contest at Tim Hortons restaurants provides customers the opportunity to win prizes. This study investigated win ratios, prize types and patterns of coffee consumption.