Extinction vulnerability of coral reef fishes

With rapidly increasing rates of contemporary extinction, predicting extinction vulnerability and identifying how multiple stressors drive non-random species loss have become key challenges in ecology. These assessments are crucial for avoiding the loss of key functional groups that sustain ecosystem processes and services. We developed a novel predictive framework of species extinction vulnerability and applied it to coral reef fishes. Although relatively few coral reef fishes are at risk of global extinction from climate disturbances, a negative convex relationship between fish species locally vulnerable to climate change vs. fisheries exploitation indicates that the entire community is vulnerable on the many reefs where both stressors co-occur. Fishes involved in maintaining key ecosystem functions are more at risk from fishing than climate disturbances. This finding is encouraging as local and regional commitment to fisheries management action can maintain reef ecosystem functions pending progress towards the more complex global problem of stabilizing the climate.     

Assessing the vulnerability of an assemblage of subtropical rainforest vertebrate species to climate change in south‐east Queensland

Global climate change is a threat to ecosystems that are rich in biodiversity and endemism, such as the World Heritage‐listed subtropical rainforests of central eastern Australia. Possible effects of climate change on the biota of tropical rainforests have been studied, but subtropical rainforests have received less attention. We analysed published data for an assemblage of 38 subtropical rainforest vertebrate species in four taxonomic groups to evaluate their relative vulnerability to climate change. Focusing on endemic and/or threatened species, we considered two aspects of vulnerability: (i) resistance, defined by indicators of rarity (geographical range, habitat specificity and local abundance); and (ii) resilience, defined by indicators of a species potential to recover (reproductive output, dispersal potential and climatic niche). Our analysis indicated that frogs are most vulnerable to climate change, followed by reptiles, birds, then mammals. Many species in our assemblage are regionally endemic montane rainforest specialists with high vulnerability. Monitoring of taxa in regenerating rainforest showed that many species with high resilience traits also persisted in disturbed habitat, suggesting that they have capacity to recolonize habitats after disturbance, that is climate change‐induced events. These results will allow us to prioritize adaptation strategies for species most at risk. We conclude that to safeguard the most vulnerable amphibian, reptile and bird species against climate change, climatically stable habitats (cool refugia) that are currently without protection status need to be identified, restored and incorporated in the current reserve system. Our study provides evidence that montane subtropical rainforest deserves highest protection status as habitat for vulnerable taxa.     

Towards an understanding of resilience in isolated coral reefs

In 1998, seawater temperature anomalies led to unprecedented levels of coral bleaching on reefs worldwide. We studied the direct effects of this thermal event on benthic communities and its indirect effects on their associated coral reef fish communities at a group of remote reefs off NW Australia. Long‐term monitoring of benthic and fish assemblages on these reefs allowed us to compare the responses of these communities to coral bleaching using a data series that included 4 years before, and 6 years following, this bleaching event. While bleaching mortality was evident to >30 m depth, it was patchy among the shallower survey sites with decreases in live coral cover ranging from 30% to 90% across seven surveyed locations Within 2 years of the bleaching, hard coral recovery had begun at all sites and by 2003 reef‐wide coral cover had increased to ～39% of its preimpact levels. We exploited this pattern of differential survival of corals among sites, the associated changes in these benthic communities, and their patterns of recovery, to better understand links between benthic community dynamics and their associated fish communities. Temporal changes in the resident fish communities strongly reflected the differential shifts in the benthic communities, but were lagged by 12–18 months. Five years after the bleaching event, the fish communities on five of the seven surveyed locations showed evidence of recovery, however, none had regained their preimpact structures. Analyses of these communities by taxonomic family revealed a range of responses to the disturbance reflective of their life‐histories and trophic and habitat affiliations. The slow but recognizable recovery of this isolated reef system has parallels with other relatively isolated systems that displayed resilience to the 1998 bleaching event, e.g. the Chagos archipelago, but it also contrasts sharply with low levels of resilience documented in other isolated reef systems subject to the same disturbance, e.g. the Seychelles. In this context, our results highlight the significant knowledge gaps remaining in understanding the resilience of these ecosystems to disturbance.     

Regional and global climate risks for reef corals: Incorporating species-specific vulnerability and exposure to climate hazards

Climate change is driving rapid and widespread erosion of the environmental conditions that formerly supported species persistence. Existing projections of climate change typically focus on forecasts of acute environmental anomalies and global extinction risks. The current projections also frequently consider all species within a broad taxonomic group together without differentiating species-specific patterns. Consequently, we still know little about the explicit dimensions of climate risk (i.e., species-specific vulnerability, exposure and hazard) that are vital for predicting future biodiversity responses (e.g., adaptation, migration) and developing management and conservation strategies. Here, we use reef corals as model organisms (n = 741 species) to project the extent of regional and global climate risks of marine organisms into the future. We characterise species-specific vulnerability based on the global geographic range and historical environmental conditions (1900–1994) of each coral species within their ranges, and quantify the projected exposure to climate hazard beyond the historical conditions as climate risk. We show that many coral species will experience a complete loss of pre-modern climate analogs at the regional scale and across their entire distributional ranges, and such exposure to hazardous conditions are predicted to pose substantial regional and global climate risks to reef corals. Although high-latitude regions may provide climate refugia for some tropical corals until the mid-21st century, they will not become a universal haven for all corals. Notably, high-latitude specialists and species with small geographic ranges remain particularly vulnerable as they tend to possess limited capacities to avoid climate risks (e.g., via adaptive and migratory responses). Predicted climate risks are amplified substantially under the SSP5-8.5 compared with the SSP1-2.6 scenario, highlighting the need for stringent emission controls. Our projections of both regional and global climate risks offer unique opportunities to facilitate climate action at spatial scales relevant to conservation and management.     

Extinct large colobines from the Plio-Pleistocene of Africa

Three genera and six species of extinct African Plio-Pleistocene Colobinae are discussed. One new genus, Rhinocolobus and three new species, R. turkanaensis, Cercopithecoides kimeui and Paracolobus mutiwa are named. These colobines show a diversity in postcranial and dental morphology not seen among extant species. Rhinocolobus was most similar to extant Colobus in postcranial morphology and had similar high-cusped shearing teeth. Cercopithecoides shows a number of postcranial skeletal features typical of terrestrial cercopithecid species and has lower cusped teeth. Paracolobus, while generally more similar to Rhinocolobus than to Cercopithecoides, is intermediate in some features of its postcranial morphology. The distribution of the various taxa among East and South African sites with different palaeoenvironments is generally consistent with the morphological interpretation. With the exception of Cercopithecoides kimeui, which persisted a little longer, these large colobines disappear from the fossil record about 1.8 million years ago. Their disappearance coincides with an interval of increasing aridity documented at Olduvai Gorge, the Omo Valley, and East Turkana.     

Human activity selectively impacts the ecosystem roles of parrotfishes on coral reefs

Around the globe, coral reefs and other marine ecosystems are increasingly overfished. Conventionally, studies of fishing impacts have focused on the population size and dynamics of targeted stocks rather than the broader ecosystem-wide effects of harvesting. Using parrotfishes as an example, we show how coral reef fish populations respond to escalating fishing pressure across the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Based on these fish abundance data, we infer the potential impact on four key functional roles performed by parrotfishes. Rates of bioerosion and coral predation are highly sensitive to human activity, whereas grazing and sediment removal are resilient to fishing. Our results offer new insights into the vulnerability and resilience of coral reefs to the ever-growing human footprint. The depletion of fishes causes differential decline of key ecosystem functions, radically changing the dynamics of coral reefs and setting the stage for future ecological surprises.     

The need for broader ecological and socioeconomic tools to evaluate the effectiveness of coral restoration programs

Coral reef restoration initiatives are burgeoning in response to the need for novel management strategies to address dramatic global declines in coral cover. However, coral restoration programs typically lack rigor and critical evaluation of their effectiveness. A review of 83 peer‐reviewed papers that used coral transplantation for reef restoration reveals that growth and survival of coral fragments were the most widely used indicators of restoration success, with 88% of studies using these two indicators either solely (55%) or in combination with a limited number of other ecological factors (33%). In 53% of studies, reef condition was monitored for 1 year or less, while only 5% of reefs were monitored for more than 5 years post‐transplantation. These results highlight that coral reef restoration science has focused primarily on short‐term experiments to evaluate the feasibility of techniques for ecological restoration and the initial establishment phase post‐transplantation, rather than on longer‐term outcomes for coral reef communities. Here, we outline 10 socioecological indicators that comprehensively evaluate the effectiveness of coral reef restoration across the four pillars of sustainability (i.e. environmental, sociocultural, governance, and economic contributions to sustainable communities). We recommend that evaluations of the effectiveness of coral restoration programs integrate ecological indicators with sociocultural, economic, and governance considerations. Assessing the efficacy of coral restoration as a tool to support reef resilience will help to guide future efforts and ensure the sustainable maintenance of reef ecosystem goods and services.     

Century‐scale records of coral growth rates indicate that local stressors reduce coral thermal tolerance threshold

Coral bleaching, during which corals lose their symbiotic dinoflagellates, appears to be increasing in frequency and geographic extent, and is typically associated with abnormally high water temperatures and solar irradiance. A key question in coral reef ecology is whether local stressors reduce the coral thermal tolerance threshold, leading to increased bleaching incidence. Using tree‐ring techniques, we produced master chronologies of growth rates in the dominant reef builder, massive Montastraea faveolata corals, over the past 75–150 years from the Mesoamerican Reef. Our records indicate that the 1998 mass bleaching event was unprecedented in the past century, despite evidence that water temperatures and solar irradiance in the region were as high or higher mid‐century than in more recent decades. We tested the influence on coral extension rate from the interactive effects of human populations and thermal stress, calculated here with degree‐heating‐months (DHM). We find that when the effects of chronic local stressors, represented by human population, are taken into account, recent reductions in extension rate are better explained than when DHM is used as the sole predictor. Therefore, the occurrence of mass bleaching on the Mesoamerican reef in 1998 appears to stem from reduced thermal tolerance due to the synergistic impacts of chronic local stressors.     

Further hominids from the Plio-Pleistocene of Koobi Fora, Kenya

Fifty-eight new fossil hominids from Plio-Pleistocene sediments east of Lake Turkana, Kenya, are described. They include cranial, mandibular, dental, and postcranial parts. Some are illustrated.     

Temperature‐driven coral decline: the role of marine protected areas

Warming ocean temperatures are considered to be an important cause of the degradation of the world's coral reefs. Marine protected areas (MPAs) have been proposed as one tool to increase coral reef ecosystem resistance and resilience (i.e. recovery) to the negative effects of climate change, yet few studies have evaluated their efficacy in achieving these goals. We used a high resolution 4 km global temperature anomaly database from 1985–2005 and 8040 live coral cover surveys on protected and unprotected reefs to determine whether or not MPAs have been effective in mitigating temperature‐driven coral loss. Generally, protection in MPAs did not reduce the effect of warm temperature anomalies on coral cover declines. Shortcomings in MPA design, including size and placement, may have contributed to the lack of an MPA effect. Empirical studies suggest that corals that have been previously exposed to moderate levels of thermal stress have greater adaptive capacity and resistance to future thermal stress events. Existing MPAs protect relatively fewer reefs with moderate anomaly frequencies, potentially reducing their effectiveness. However, our results also suggest that the benefits from MPAs may not be great enough to offset the magnitude of losses from acute thermal stress events. Although MPAs are important conservation tools, their limitations in mitigating coral loss from acute thermal stress events suggest that they need to be complemented with policies aimed at reducing the activities responsible for climate change.     

Ecological impacts of coral gardening outplanting in the Maldives

As coral reefs continue to degrade at an alarming rate, coral restoration efforts are increasing worldwide in an attempt to keep up with the global challenge of preserving these iconic ecosystems and the many services they provide. Coral gardening, the farming and outplanting of coral fragments, is a commonly applied practice; however, regional validation is required before upscaling can be considered. This study follows up from the successful farming of fragments in mid-water rope nurseries, by reporting on the successive outplanting of these corals. Specifically, 60 Pocillopora verrucosa colonies were outplanted to a degraded reef at different depths (1–12 m), applying three arrangement patterns (equal, clustered, random). After 1 year, 72% were considered successfully outplanted (alive and still attached), with detachment being the main challenge at wave-impacted shallow depths, while loose coral rubble caused more partial mortality at depth. Outplanting stress was observed at 1–6 m depth, but had no impact on survival or growth. Drupella sp. predation was most common at 3 m and 79% of colonies hosted mutualistic fauna after 1 year. Outplanting significantly benefitted the reef environment with a higher fish abundance and diversity along with a higher increase in natural coral cover (H = 2.7; 6.2% increase) in comparison with the control sites. These are promising results, considering that the restoration site has shown little natural recovery in the last few years (coral cover <4%). We hope that our findings provide useful initial insights and help to guide effective restoration practices in the Maldives.     

Coral bleaching, reef fish community phase shifts and the resilience of coral reefs

The 1998 global coral bleaching event was the largest recorded historical disturbance of coral reefs and resulted in extensive habitat loss. Annual censuses of reef fish community structure over a 12-year period spanning the bleaching event revealed a marked phase shift from a prebleach to postbleach assemblage. Surprisingly, we found that the bleaching event had no detectable effect on the abundance, diversity or species richness of a local cryptobenthic reef fish community. Furthermore, there is no evidence of regeneration even after 5–35 generations of these short-lived species. These results have significant implications for our understanding of the response of coral reef ecosystems to global warming and highlight the importance of selecting appropriate criteria for evaluating reef resilience.     

Molar tooth fragment BL5-0: the oldest human remain found in the Plio-Pleistocene of Orce (Granada province, Spain)

A molar tooth fragment from the Plio-Pleistocene Barranco León site 5 at Orce is shown to belong toHomo by analyses of its enamel in terms of the arrangement of the striae of Retzius and Hunter-Shreger bands, presence of perikymata, and of the thickness of the enamel, when compared with teeth of similarsized mammals of other taxa.     

Reconstructing past species assemblages reveals the changing patterns and drivers of extinction through time

Predicting future species extinctions from patterns of past extinctions or current threat status relies on the assumption that the taxonomic and biological selectivity of extinction is consistent through time. If the driving forces of extinction change through time, this assumption may be unrealistic. Testing the consistency of extinction patterns between the past and the present has been difficult, because the phylogenetically explicit methods used to model present-day extinction risk typically cannot be applied to the data from the fossil record. However, the detailed historical and fossil records of the New Zealand avifauna provide a unique opportunity to reconstruct a complete, large faunal assemblage for different periods in the past. Using the first complete phylogeny of all known native New Zealand bird species, both extant and extinct, we show how the taxonomic and phylogenetic selectivity of extinction, and biological correlates of extinction, change from the pre-human period through Polynesian and European occupation, to the present. These changes can be explained both by changes in primary threatening processes, and by the operation of extinction filter effects. The variable patterns of extinction through time may confound attempts to identify risk factors that apply across time periods, and to infer future species declines from past extinction patterns and current threat status.     

Bears,pigs, and Plio-Pleistocene hominids: A case for the exploitation of belowground food resources

Belowground plant parts were important potential food resources in the habitats associated with Pliocene and early Pleistocene hominids. The food gathering and dental adaptations of three groups of modem mammals — bears, pigs, and humans — testify to the earlier convergence of these animals on this resource. Since belowground food reserves are relatively unaffected by the factors controlling aboveground food supply (fire, drought, and grazing stress), exploitation of this stable nutritional bank had distinct energetic and behavioral advantages for hominids.     

Habitat loss, resource specialization, and extinction on coral reefs

Coral reefs worldwide are being degraded because of global warming (coral bleaching) and coastal development (sedimentation and eutrophication). Predicting the risk of species extinctions from this type of habitat degradation is one of the most challenging and urgent tasks facing ecologists. Habitat specialists are thought to be more prone to extinction than generalists; however, specialists may be more susceptible to extinction because (1) they are specialists per se, (2) they are less abundant than generalists, or (3) both. Here, I show that declines in coral abundance lead to corresponding declines in the abundance of coral‐dwelling fishes, but with proportionally greater losses to specialists than generalists. In addition, specialists have smaller initial population sizes than generalists. Consequently, specialists face a dual risk of extinction because their already small populations decline more rapidly than those of generalists. Corresponding with this increased extinction risk, I describe the local extinction of one specialist species and the near‐global extinction of another species. I conclude that habitat specialists will be the first species lost from coral reefs because their small populations suffer the most from human‐induced disturbances.     

Identifying multiple coral reef regimes and their drivers across the Hawaiian archipelago

Loss of coral reef resilience can lead to dramatic changes in benthic structure, often called regime shifts, which significantly alter ecosystem processes and functioning. In the face of global change and increasing direct human impacts, there is an urgent need to anticipate and prevent undesirable regime shifts and, conversely, to reverse shifts in already degraded reef systems. Such challenges require a better understanding of the human and natural drivers that support or undermine different reef regimes. The Hawaiian archipelago extends across a wide gradient of natural and anthropogenic conditions and provides us a unique opportunity to investigate the relationships between multiple reef regimes, their dynamics and potential drivers. We applied a combination of exploratory ordination methods and inferential statistics to one of the most comprehensive coral reef datasets available in order to detect, visualize and define potential multiple ecosystem regimes. This study demonstrates the existence of three distinct reef regimes dominated by hard corals, turf algae or macroalgae. Results from boosted regression trees show nonlinear patterns among predictors that help to explain the occurrence of these regimes, and highlight herbivore biomass as the key driver in addition to effluent, latitude and depth.     

Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs

For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO₂ emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework.