Estimation of aboveground biomass using in situ hyperspectral measurements in five major grassland ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau

Aims There are numerous grassland ecosystem types on the Tibetan Plateau. These include the alpine meadow and steppe and degraded alpine meadow and steppe. This study aimed at developing a method to estimate aboveground biomass (AGB) for these grasslands from hyperspectral data and to explore the feasibility of applying air/satellite-borne remote sensing techniques to AGB estimation at larger scales.Methods We carried out a field survey to collect hyperspectral reflectance and AGB for five major grassland ecosystems on the Tibetan Plateau and calculated seven narrow-band vegetation indices and the vegetation index based on universal pattern decomposition (VIUPD) from the spectra to estimate AGB. First, we investigated correlations between AGB and each of these vegetation indices to identify the best estimator of AGB for each ecosystem type. Next, we estimated AGB for the five pooled ecosystem types by developing models containing dummy variables. At last, we compared the predictions of simple regression models and the models containing dummy variables to seek an ecosystem type-independent model to improve prediction of AGB for these various grassland ecosystems from hyperspectral measurements.Important findings When we considered each ecosystem type separately, all eight vegetation indices provided good estimates of AGB, with the best predictor of AGB varying among different ecosystems. When AGB of all the five ecosystems was estimated together using a simple linear model, VIUPD showed the lowest prediction error among the eight vegetation indices. The regression models containing dummy variables predicted AGB with higher accuracy than the simple models, which could be attributed to the dummy variables accounting for the effects of ecosystem type on the relationship between AGB and vegetation index (VI). These results suggest that VIUPD is the best predictor of AGB among simple regression models. Moreover, both VIUPD and the soil-adjusted VI could provide accurate estimates of AGB with dummy variables integrated in regression models. Therefore, ground-based hyperspectral measurements are useful for estimating AGB, which indicates the potential of applying satellite/airborne remote sensing techniques to AGB estimation of these grasslands on the Tibetan Plateau.     

Uncertainty analysis of forest carbon sink forecast with varying measurement errors: a data assimilation approach

Aims Accurate forecast of ecosystem states is critical for improving natural resource management and climate change mitigation. Assimilating observed data into models is an effective way to reduce uncertainties in ecological forecasting. However, influences of measurement errors on parameter estimation and forecasted state changes have not been carefully examined. This study analyzed the parameter identifiability of a process-based ecosystem carbon cycle model, the sensitivity of parameter estimates and model forecasts to the magnitudes of measurement errors and the information contributions of the assimilated data to model forecasts with a data assimilation approach.Methods We applied a Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to assimilate eight biometric data sets into the Terrestrial ECOsystem model. The data were the observations of foliage biomass, wood biomass, fine root biomass, microbial biomass, litter fall, litter, soil carbon and soil respiration, collected at the Duke Forest free-air CO₂ enrichment facilities from 1996 to 2005. Three levels of measurement errors were assigned to these data sets by halving and doubling their original standard deviations.Important findings Results showed that only less than half of the 30 parameters could be constrained, though the observations were extensive and the model was relatively simple. Higher measurement errors led to higher uncertainties in parameters estimates and forecasted carbon (C) pool sizes. The long-term predictions of the slow turnover pools were affected less by the measurement errors than those of fast turnover pools. Assimilated data contributed less information for the pools with long residence times in long-term forecasts. These results indicate the residence times of C pools played a key role in regulating propagation of errors from measurements to model forecasts in a data assimilation system. Improving the estimation of parameters of slow turnover C pools is the key to better forecast long-term ecosystem C dynamics.     

Further developments of protein secondary structure prediction using information theory. New parameters and consideration of residue pairs

We have re-evaluated the information used in the Garnier-Osguthorpe-Robson (GOR) method of secondary structure prediction with the currently available database. The framework of information theory provides a means to formulate the influence of local sequence upon the conformation of a given residue, in a rigorous manner. However, the existing database does not allow the evaluation of parameters required for an exact treatment of the problem. The validity of the approximations drawn from the theory is examined. It is shown that the first-level approximation, involving single-residue parameters, is only marginally improved by an increase in the database. The second-level approximation, involving pairs of residues, provides a better model. However, in this case the database is not big enough and this method might lead to parameters with deficiencies. Attention is therefore given to overcoming this lack of data. We have determined the significant pairs and the number of dummy observations necessary to obtain the best result for the prediction. This new version of the GOR method increases the accuracy of prediction by 7%, bringing the amount of residues correctly predicted to 63% for three states and 68 proteins, each protein to be predicted being removed from the database and the parameters derived from the other proteins. If the protein to be predicted is kept in the database the accuracy goes up to 69.7%.     

How simple grazing rules can lead to persistent boundaries in vegetation communities

Natural landscape boundaries between vegetation communities are dynamically influenced by the selective grazing of herbivores. Here we show how this may be an emergent property of very simple animal decisions, without the need for any sophisticated choice rules etc., using a model based on biased diffusion. Animal grazing intensity is coupled with plant competition, resulting in reaction-diffusion dynamics, from which stable boundaries spontaneously emerge. In the model, animals affect their resources by both consumption and trampling. It is assumed that forage consists of two heterogeneously distributed competing resource species, one that is preferred (grass) over the other (heather) by the animals. The solutions to the resulting system of differential equations for three cases a) optimal foraging, b) random walk foraging and c) taxis-diffusion are presented. Optimal and random foraging gave unrealistic results, but taxis-diffusion accorded well with field observations. Persistent boundaries between patches of near-monoculture vegetation were predicted, with these boundaries drifting in response to overall grazing pressure (grass advancing with increased grazing and vice versa). The reaction-taxis-diffusion model provides the first mathematical explanation for such vegetation mosaic dynamics and the parameters of the model are open to experimental testing.     

Mid‐infrared spectroscopy‐based analysis of mammalian cell culture Parameters

Within the framework of process analytical technology, infrared spectroscopy (IR) has been used for characterization of biopharmaceutical production processes. Although noninvasive attenuated total reflection (ATR) spectroscopy can be regarded as gold standard within IR‐based process analytics, simpler and more cost‐effective mid‐infrared (MIR) instruments might improve acceptability of this technique for high‐level monitoring of small scale experiments as well as for academia where financial restraints impede the use of costly equipment. A simple and straightforward at‐line mid‐IR instrument was used to monitor cell viability parameters, activity of lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), amount of secreted antibody, and concentration of glutamate and lactate in a Chinese hamster ovary cell culture process, applying multivariate prediction models, including only 25–28 calibration samples per model. Glutamate amount could be predicted with high accuracy (R² 0.91 for independent test‐set) while antibody concentration achieved good prediction for concentrations >0.4 mg L^?1. Prediction of LDH activity was accurate except for the low activity regime. The model for lactate monitoring was only moderately good and requires improvements. Relative cell viability between 20 and 95% could be predicted with low error (8.82%) in comparison to reference methods. An initial model for determining the number of nonviable cells displayed only acceptable accuracy and requires further improvement. In contrast, monitoring of viable cell number showed better accuracy than previously published ATR‐based results. These results prove the principal suitability of less sophisticated MIR instruments to monitor multiple parameters in biopharmaceutical production with relatively low investments and rather fast calibration procedures. © 2015 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 31:578–584, 2015     

基于挺水植物高光谱信息的再生水总氮含量估测——以北京市门城湖湿地公园为例

高光谱信息是探测植物体内氮素含量状况的重要手段,而植物体中的氮素与水体含氮量息息相关.本研究区为以再生水为主要补给水水源的北京门城湖湿地公园,通过获取区内典型的再生水氮净化挺水植物芦苇和香蒲叶片的高光谱数据,并在室内测定对应样点的水体总氮含量指标, 探讨基于典型湿地挺水植物高光谱数据对水体总氮进行遥感探测的可行性.采用4种高光谱参数(光谱指数、归一化差值指数、“三边”参数及吸收特征参数)分别建立一元线性模型、逐步多元回归模型和偏最小二乘模型,根据决定系数(R²)和均方根误差(RMSE)进行模型精度检验.结果表明: 逐步多元回归和偏最小二乘模型的预测精度高于一元线性模型. 3种模型对芦苇的拟合效果均优于香蒲.偏最小二乘模型对芦苇的拟合效果最优(R²=0.854,RMSE=0.647).500～700 nm是反映水氮含量的最佳波段范围,绿峰与红谷反射率的比值与水体总氮含量具有较强的相关性,尤其是吸收特征参数能够较好地预测水体总氮含量.     

Characterization of moorland vegetation and the prediction of bird abundance using remote sensing

Aims To characterize and identify upland vegetation composition and height from a satellite image, and assess whether the resulting vegetation maps are accurate enough for predictions of bird abundance. Location South‐east Scotland, UK. Methods Fine‐taxa vegetation data collected using point samples were used for a supervised classification of a Landsat 7 image, while linear regression was used to model vegetation height over the same image. Generalized linear models describing bird abundance were developed using field‐collected bird and vegetation data. The satellite‐derived vegetation data were substituted into these models and efficacy was examined. Results The accuracy of the classification was tested over both the training and a set of test plots, and showed that more common vegetation types could be predicted accurately. Attempts to estimate the heights of both dwarf shrub and graminoid vegetation from satellite data produced significant, but weak, correlations between observed and predicted height. When these outputs were used in bird abundance–habitat models, bird abundance predicted using satellite‐derived vegetation data was very similar to that obtained when the field‐collected data were used for one bird species, but poor estimates of vegetation height produced from the satellite data resulted in a poor abundance prediction for another. Conclusions This pilot study suggests that it is possible to identify moorland vegetation to a fine‐taxa level using point samples, and that it may be possible to derive information on vegetation height, although more appropriate field‐collected data are needed to examine this further. While remote sensing may have limitations compared with relatively fine‐scale fieldwork, when used at relatively large scales and in conjunction with robust bird abundance–habitat association models, it may facilitate the mapping of moorland bird abundance across large areas.     

Individualized performance prediction of sleep-deprived individuals with the two-process model.

We present a new method for developing individualized biomathematical models that predict performance impairment for individuals restricted to total sleep loss. The underlying formulation is based on the two-process model of sleep regulation, which has been extensively used to develop group-average models. However, in the proposed method, the parameters of the two-process model are systematically adjusted to account for an individual's uncertain initial state and unknown trait characteristics, resulting in individual-specific performance prediction models. The method establishes the initial estimates of the model parameters using a set of past performance observations, after which the parameters are adjusted as each new observation becomes available. Moreover, by transforming the nonlinear optimization problem of finding the best estimates of the two-process model parameters into a set of linear optimization problems, the proposed method yields unique parameter estimates. Two distinct data sets are used to evaluate the proposed method. Results of simulated data (with superimposed noise) show that the model parameters asymptotically converge to their true values and the model prediction accuracy improves as the number of performance observations increases and the amount of noise in the data decreases. Results of a laboratory study (82 h of total sleep loss), for three sleep-loss phenotypes, suggest that individualized models are consistently more accurate than group-average models, yielding as much as a threefold reduction in prediction errors. In addition, we show that the two-process model of sleep regulation is capable of representing performance data only when the proposed individualized model is used.     

Remote estimation of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation for a maize canopy in Northeast China

Aims Accurate remote estimation of the fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation (fAPAR) is essential for the light use efficiency (LUE) models. Currently, one challenge for the LUE models is lack of knowledge about the relationship between fAPAR and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). Few studies have tested this relationship against field measurements and evaluated the accuracy of the remote estimation method. This study aimed to reveal the empirical relationship between NDVI and fAPAR and to improve algorithms for remote estimation of fAPAR.Methods To investigate the method of remote estimation of fAPAR seasonal dynamics, the CASA (Carnegie–Ames–Stanford Approach) model and spectral vegetation indices (VIs) were used for in situ measurements of spectral reflectance and fAPAR during the growing season of a maize canopy in Northeast China.Important findings The results showed that the fAPAR increased rapidly with the day of year during the vegetative stage, it remained relatively stable at the stage of reproduction, and finally decreased slowly during the senescence stage. In addition, fAPAR green [fAPAR green = fAPAR × (green LAI/green LAI max)] showed clearer seasonal trends than fAPAR. The NDVI, red-edge NDVI, wide dynamic range vegetation index, red-edge position (REP) and REP with Sentinel-2 bands derived from hyperspectral remote sensing data were all significantly positively related to fAPAR green during the entire growing season. In a comparison of the predictive performance of VIs for the whole growing season, REP was the most appropriate spectral index, and can be recommended for monitoring seasonal dynamics of fAPAR in a maize canopy.     

Generation of deviation parameters for amino acid singlets, doublets and triplets from three-dimentional structures of proteins and its implications for secondary structure prediction from amino acid sequences

We present a new method, secondary structure prediction by deviation parameter (SSPDP) for predicting the secondary structure of proteins from amino acid sequence. Deviation parameters (DP) for amino acid singlets, doublets and triplets were computed with respect to secondary structural elements of proteins based on the dictionary of secondary structure prediction (DSSP)-generated secondary structure for 408 selected non-homologous proteins. To the amino acid triplets which are not found in the selected dataset, a DP value of zero is assigned with respect to the secondary structural elements of proteins. The total number of parameters generated is 15,432, in the possible parameters of 25,260. Deviation parameter is complete with respect to amino acid singlets, doublets, and partially complete with respect to amino acid triplets. These generated parameters were used to predict secondary structural elements from amino acid sequence. The secondary structure predicted by our method (SSPDP) was compared with that of single sequence (NNPREDICT) and multiple sequence (PHD) methods. The average value of the percentage of prediction accuracy for a helix by SSPDP, NNPREDICT and PHD methods was found to be 57%, 44% and 69% respectively for the proteins in the selected dataset. For b-strand the prediction accuracy is found to be 69%, 21% and 53% respectively by SSPDP, NNPREDICT and PHD methods. This clearly indicates that the secondary structure prediction by our method is as good as PHD method but much better than NNPREDICT method.     

滇西北森林郁闭度估测模型——基于全球生态系统动力学调查多波束激光雷达数据

探究全球生态系统动力学调查(GEDI)多波束激光雷达数据估测区域森林郁闭度(FCC)的潜力,对于评估森林生态系统状态和林分环境具有重要作用。选取滇西北典型生态脆弱区香格里拉为研究区,以GEDI波形数据为信息源,提取46245个有林地光斑参数,使用经验贝叶斯克里金法(EBK)获取光斑参数在研究区未知空间的连续分布,结合54块实测样地数据,采用支持向量机的递归特征消除法(SVM-RFE)、随机森林(RF)和Pearson分析分别优选特征变量,基于贝叶斯优化(BO)随机森林回归模型(BO-RFR)、贝叶斯优化梯度回归模型(BO-GBRT)和偏最小二乘法(PLSR)研建森林郁闭度最佳估测模型。结果表明:(1)EBK法预测精度高,估测结果可靠,R²:0.20-0.92,RMSE:0.004-2812.912,MAE:0.003-1996.258,MRE:0.007-4.423;(2)基于不同特征优选方法筛选的特征变量和数量略有差异,SVM-RFE 法优选出6个参数(cover、pai、sensitivity、rv_a1、rv_a4、rg_a4)的平均交叉验证精度达0.84,RF法以贡献度5%为阈值筛选出5个参数(cover、pai、pgap_theta_error、modis_treecover、modis_nonvegetated),Pearson法以相关性大于0.3且在0.01水平显著优选出5个参数(cover、pai、rv_a5、rg_a5、pgap_theta_error);(3)不同特征变量优选方法筛选的建模参数研建估测模型精度差异性较大,以SVM-RFE和RF方法优选参数构建估测模型的精度更佳,SVM-RFE方法优选参数研建估测模型精度变化相对稳定,以 RF方法中的BO-GBRT模型为最佳FCC估测模型(R²=0.85、RMSE=0.069,P=86.5%);(4)采用BO-GBRT模型估测研究区森林郁闭度和空间制图,与GEDI pai参数预测的FCC具有较高空间相关性达0.53,FCC均值分别为0.58、0.61,主要分布在0.4-0.7,分别占比65.45%、51.79%。研究区森林郁闭度主要处于中度郁闭,北部区域主要为高度郁闭区,与研究区植被覆盖度的空间分布具有一致性,说明使用GEDI数据估测森林郁闭度的方法具有可行性、结果具有可靠性。研究为使用GEDI数据高效、及时、低成本估测大空间尺度的森林水平结构参数的相关研究奠定了基础。     

Review: protein secondary structure prediction continues to rise

Methods predicting protein secondary structure improved substantially in the 1990s through the use of evolutionary information taken from the divergence of proteins in the same structural family. Recently, the evolutionary information resulting from improved searches and larger databases has again boosted prediction accuracy by more than four percentage points to its current height of around 76% of all residues predicted correctly in one of the three states, helix, strand, and other. The past year also brought successful new concepts to the field. These new methods may be particularly interesting in light of the improvements achieved through simple combining of existing methods. Divergent evolutionary profiles contain enough information not only to substantially improve prediction accuracy, but also to correctly predict long stretches of identical residues observed in alternative secondary structure states depending on nonlocal conditions. An example is a method automatically identifying structural switches and thus finding a remarkable connection between predicted secondary structure and aspects of function. Secondary structure predictions are increasingly becoming the work horse for numerous methods aimed at predicting protein structure and function. Is the recent increase in accuracy significant enough to make predictions even more useful? Because the recent improvement yields a better prediction of segments, and in particular of beta strands, I believe the answer is affirmative. What is the limit of prediction accuracy? We shall see.     

Generation of deviation parameters for amino acid singlets, doublets and triplets from three-dimensional structures of proteins and its implications for secondary structure prediction from amino acid sequences

We present a new method, secondary structure prediction by deviation parameter (SSPDP) for predicting the secondary structure of proteins from amino acid sequence. Deviation parameters (DP) for amino acid singlets, doublets and triplets were computed with respect to secondary structural elements of proteins based on the dictionary of secondary structure prediction (DSSP)-generated secondary structure for 408 selected nonhomologous proteins. To the amino acid triplets which are not found in the selected dataset, a DP value of zero is assigned with respect to the secondary structural elements of proteins. The total number of parameters generated is 15,432, in the possible parameters of 25,260. Deviation parameter is complete with respect to amino acid singlets, doublets, and partially complete with respect to amino acid triplets. These generated parameters were used to predict secondary structural elements from amino acid sequence. The secondary structure predicted by our method (SSPDP) was compared with that of single sequence (NNPREDICT) and multiple sequence (PHD) methods. The average value of the percentage of prediction accuracy for αhelix by SSPDP, NNPREDICT and PHD methods was found to be 57%, 44% and 69% respectively for the proteins in the selected dataset. For Β-strand the prediction accuracy is found to be 69%, 21% and 53% respectively by SSPDP, NNPREDICT and PHD methods. This clearly indicates that the secondary structure prediction by our method is as good as PHD method but much better than NNPREDICT method.     

Effectiveness of Link Prediction for Face-to-Face Behavioral Networks

Research on link prediction for social networks has been actively pursued. In link prediction for a given social network obtained from time-windowed observation, new link formation in the network is predicted from the topology of the obtained network. In contrast, recent advances in sensing technology have made it possible to obtain face-to-face behavioral networks, which are social networks representing face-to-face interactions among people. However, the effectiveness of link prediction techniques for face-to-face behavioral networks has not yet been explored in depth. To clarify this point, here we investigate the accuracy of conventional link prediction techniques for networks obtained from the history of face-to-face interactions among participants at an academic conference. Our findings were (1) that conventional link prediction techniques predict new link formation with a precision of 0.30–0.45 and a recall of 0.10–0.20, (2) that prolonged observation of social networks often degrades the prediction accuracy, (3) that the proposed decaying weight method leads to higher prediction accuracy than can be achieved by observing all records of communication and simply using them unmodified, and (4) that the prediction accuracy for face-to-face behavioral networks is relatively high compared to that for non-social networks, but not as high as for other types of social networks.     

Detection of reliable and unexpected protein fold predictions using 3D-Jury

3D-Jury is a fully automated protein structure meta prediction system accessible via the Meta Server interface (http://BioInfo.PL/Meta). This is one of the meta predictors, which have made a dramatic, unprecedented impact on the last CASP-5 experiment. The 3D-Jury is comparable with other meta servers but it has the highest combined specificity and sensitivity. The presented method is also very simple and versatile and can be used to create meta predictions even from sets of models produced by humans. An additional and very important and novel feature of the system is the high correlation between the reported confidence score and the accuracy of the model. The number of correctly predicted residues can be estimated directly from the prediction score. The high reliability of the method enables any biologist to submit a target of interest to the Meta Server and screen with relatively high confidence, whether the target can be predicted by fold recognition methods while being unpredictable using standard approaches like PSI-Blast. This can point to interesting relationships which could have been missed in annotations of proteins or genomes and provide very valuable information for novel scientific discoveries.     

Numerical assessment of plant species as indicators of the groundwater regime

Abstract. The relation between the occurrence of plant species in environments varying in moisture status and groundwater regime was tested using numerical methods. The groundwater regime during the vegetation period was expressed by means of four parameters, the average (AVG), mean highest (HIGH), mean lowest (LOW) groundwater level and the maximum fluctuation (AMP). 67 records of five vegetation types were selected from hydrologically stable sites in brook valleys in the northern part of The Netherlands. Response curves were calculated for 30 representative species. Calculated optima for AVG, HIGH and LOW are strongly correlated to each other. The vegetation reacts independently from overall wetness to the amount of fluctuation of the groundwater level (AMP). Response curves of single species as well as combinations of both present and absent species were used to find the best set of indicators for each parameter. The use of combinations of species clearly improves the indicating value of vegetation records. The vegetation appears to be the most sensitive to the parameter HIGH, which can thus be considered to be a key factor in controlling vegetation composition. The four parameters can be predicted satisfactorily only in the middle part of the investigated gradient. This is not only due to arithmetic artifacts, inherent to the applied method, but also to the fact that at average groundwater levels below - 60 cm or above 0 cm other factors become predominant.     

SVM-Cabins: prediction of solvent accessibility using accumulation cutoff set and support vector machine

A number of methods for predicting levels of solvent accessibility or accessible surface area (ASA) of amino acid residues in proteins have been developed. These methods either predict regularly spaced states of relative solvent accessibility or an analogue real value indicating relative solvent accessibility. While discrete states of exposure can be easily obtained by post prediction assignment of thresholds to the predicted or computed real values of ASA, the reverse, that is, obtaining a real value from quantized states of predicted ASA, is not straightforward as a two-state prediction in such cases would give a large real valued errors. However, prediction of ASA into larger number of ASA states and then finding a corresponding scheme for real value prediction may be helpful in integrating the two approaches of ASA prediction. We report a novel method of obtaining numerical real values of solvent accessibility, using accumulation cutoff set and support vector machine. This so-called SVM-Cabins method first predicts discrete states of ASA of amino acid residues from their evolutionary profile and then maps the predicted states onto a real valued linear space by simple algebraic methods. Resulting performance of such a rigorous approach using 13-state ASA prediction is at least comparable with the best methods of ASA prediction reported so far. The mean absolute error in this method reaches the best performance of 15.1% on the tested data set of 502 proteins with a coefficient of correlation equal to 0.66. Since, the method starts with the prediction of discrete states of ASA and leads to real value predictions, performance of prediction in binary states and real values are simultaneously optimized.     

The effect of time-varying mortality and carbon assimilation on models of carbon allocation in annual plants

Summary Models of optimal carbon allocation schedules have influenced the way plant ecologists think about life history evolution, particularly for annual plants. The present study asks (1) how, within the framework of these models, are their predictions affected by within-season variation in mortality and carbon assimilation rates?; and (2) what are the consequences of these prediction changes for empirical tests of the models? A companion paper examines the basic assumptions of the models themselves. I conducted a series of numerical experiments with a simple carbon allocation model. Results suggest that both qualitative and quantitative predictions can sometimes be sensitive to parameter values for net assimilation rate and mortality: for some parameter values, both the time and size at onset of reproduction, as well as the number of reproductive intervals, vary considerably as a result of small variations in these parameters. For other parameter values, small variations in the parameters result in only small changes in predicted phenotype, but these have very large fitness consequences. Satisfactory empirical tests are thus likely to require much accuracy in parameter estimates. The effort required for parameter estimation imposes a practical constraint on empirical tests, making large multipopulation comparisons impractical. It may be most practical to compare the predicted and observed fitness consequences of variation in the timing of onset of reproduction.     

Inferring Behavioral States of Grazing Livestock from High-Frequency Position Data Alone

Studies of animal behavior are crucial to understanding animal-ecosystem interactions, but require substantial efforts in visual observation or sensor measurement. We investigated how classifying behavioral states of grazing livestock using global positioning data alone depends on the classification approach, the preselection of training data, and the number and type of movement metrics. Positions of grazing cows were collected at intervals of 20 seconds in six upland areas in Switzerland along with visual observations of animal behavior for comparison. A total of 87 linear and cumulative distance metrics and 15 turning angle metrics across multiple time steps were used to classify position data into the behavioral states of walking, grazing, and resting. Five random forest classification models, a linear discriminant analysis, a support vector machine, and a state-space model were evaluated. The most accurate classification of the observed behavioral states in an independent validation dataset was 83%, obtained using random forest with all available movement metrics. However, the state-specific accuracy was highly unequal (walking: 36%, grazing: 95%, resting: 58%). Random undersampling led to a prediction accuracy of 77%, with more balanced state-specific accuracies (walking: 68%, grazing: 82%, resting: 68%). The other evaluated machine-learning approaches had lower classification accuracies. The state-space model, based on distance to the preceding position and turning angle, produced a relatively low accuracy of 64%, slightly lower than a random forest model with the same predictor variables. Given the successful classification of behavioral states, our study promotes the more frequent use of global positioning data alone for animal behavior studies under the condition that data is collected at high frequency and complemented by context-specific behavioral observations. Machine-learning algorithms, notably random forest, were found very useful for classification and easy to implement. Moreover, the use of measures across multiple time steps is clearly necessary for a satisfactory classification.     

A comparative analysis of alternative approaches to fitting species-abundance models

Aims Fits of species-abundance distributions to empirical data are increasingly used to evaluate models of diversity maintenance and community structure and to infer properties of communities, such as species richness. Two distributions predicted by several models are the Poisson lognormal (PLN) and the negative binomial (NB) distribution; however, at least three different ways to parameterize the PLN have been proposed, which differ in whether unobserved species contribute to the likelihood and in whether the likelihood is conditional upon the total number of individuals in the sample. Each of these has an analogue for the NB. Here, we propose a new formulation of the PLN and NB that includes the number of unobserved species as one of the estimated parameters. We investigate the performance of parameter estimates obtained from this reformulation, as well as the existing alternatives, for drawing inferences about the shape of species abundance distributions and estimation of species richness.Methods We simulate the random sampling of a fixed number of individuals from lognormal and gamma community relative abundance distributions, using a previously developed 'individual-based' bootstrap algorithm. We use a range of sample sizes, community species richness levels and shape parameters for the species abundance distributions that span much of the realistic range for empirical data, generating 1?000 simulated data sets for each parameter combination. We then fit each of the alternative likelihoods to each of the simulated data sets, and we assess the bias, sampling variance and estimation error for each method.Important findings Parameter estimates behave reasonably well for most parameter values, exhibiting modest levels of median error. However, for the NB, median error becomes extremely large as the NB approaches either of two limiting cases. For both the NB and PLN,>90% of the variation in the error in model parameters across parameter sets is explained by three quantities that corresponded to the proportion of species not observed in the sample, the expected number of species observed in the sample and the discrepancy between the true NB or PLN distribution and a Poisson distribution with the same mean. There are relatively few systematic differences between the four alternative likelihoods. In particular, failing to condition the likelihood on the total sample sizes does not appear to systematically increase the bias in parameter estimates. Indeed, overall, the classical likelihood performs slightly better than the alternatives. However, our reparameterized likelihood, for which species richness is a fitted parameter, has important advantages over existing approaches for estimating species richness from fitted species-abundance models.