Incorporating invasive weeds into a plant indicator method (LakeSPI) to assess lake ecological condition

The use of lake macrophytes for ecological quality assessments usually seeks to indicate the degree of anthropogenic impact, but few of these schemes implicitly consider impacts of alien weeds. LakeSPI (submerged plant indicators) uses indicators of habitat degradation for macrophytes but also incorporates the degree of impact from alien weeds. Application of LakeSPI to 195 New Zealand lakes provided a dataset to examine how component metrics responded over gradients of anthropogenic pressures, and consider whether weed invasion was merely a ‘passenger’ of habitat degradation, or represented an additional pressure. As expected, metrics measuring depth, and diversity of native vegetation negatively correlated with independent measures of lake eutrophy and were also relatively well explained (69–78% variation) by multiple regression with lake and catchment attributes that included proxies for anthropogenic pressure. In contrast, metrics for invasive impact were largely de-coupled from eutrophication, and poorly explained (31%) by the multiple regression. The response of native vegetation metrics to invasive impact measures varied, with the strongest detected interaction relating to native displacement by increased weed occupation of the vegetated zone. Interactions between invasion and lake trophic status were also discerned, with the extent of weed occupation having a more substantial outcome for the presence of charophyte meadows in low productivity lakes than in more productive lakes. These results suggest weed invasion should be considered as an additional source of anthropogenic pressure, and incorporated in macrophyte bioassessment schemes for a more complete differentiation of lake ecological condition.     

Geographical ecology and conservation of Eugenia L. (Myrtaceae) in the Brazilian Cerrado: Past,present and future

Human actions have caused the fragmentation of natural vegetation, habitat loss and climate change. The Cerrado, considered one of the global hotspots of diversity, has suffered great habitat loss due to these factors, which has been aggravated by the agricultural expansion that took place during the last 60 years. In this context, we chose species of the genus Eugenia L. (Myrtaceae) occurring in the Brazilian Cerrado to describe richness patterns and range loss, and determine conservation priorities for the Cerrado. Ecological niche models (ENMs) were applied to calculate the geographical range of each species in the past (Last Glacial Maximum – LGM, 21 000 years ago), present (PIP, representing current climatic conditions – 1760 years ago) and future (near future – NF, 2080–2100). These results were combined to calculate the richness of the group and also to estimate the range loss of these species in the future. Moreover, we evaluated the irreplaceability of areas for species conservation, aiming to maximize the biotic stability of Eugenia species. Our results showed that the highest species richness in the past was found in the southwestern region of the Cerrado and, currently, the richest regions are found in the central and southeastern areas. However, in the future, we predict a shift of the greatest values of richness towards the southeastern region, an area currently occupied by the Atlantic forest. Although areas with high conservation priorities were found scattered across the biome, this shift is worrisome due to the high fragmentation rate and intensive human occupation thoughout the Atlantic region. Thus, conservation efforts should focus on areas found within these limits.     

Scale dependent effects of native prey diversity,prey biomass and natural disturbance on the invasion success of an exotic predator

There is growing support for the general notion that the drivers of invasion success often shift from biotic to abiotic factors with increasing spatial scale. Most of this research, however, has been conducted on a single trophic level; i.e. it has primarily looked at how the diversity of native competitors may influence invasion success. Less attention has been paid to understanding how native prey diversity may influence the invasion success of exotic predators and whether such biotic factors are scale-dependent. We used a hierarchical spatial survey of 17 stream communities to test whether native prey diversity, along with native prey biomass, algal resource abundance and annual stream discharge, influenced the abundance of an exotic crayfish predator, and whether the importance of these factors were scale-dependent. We used a hierarchical generalized linear model to evaluate the influence of these community and stream characteristics on exotic crayfish abundance at both the transect scale (1 m²) and the stream scale (400 m²). Our results indicated that at the stream scale, high stream discharge significantly limited invader abundance. However, at the smaller transect scale, native prey biomass was a significant driver of invasion success and positively correlated with invader abundance. We suggest that our results add to the emerging pattern that abiotic processes are stronger determinants of invasion success at large spatial scales, whereas biotic processes become more important with decreasing spatial scale. However, for predator invasions, prey biomass, not prey diversity may be a more important for driver of invasion success at small spatial scales.     

No consistent legacy effects of invasion by giant goldenrod (Solidago gigantea) via soil biota on native plant growth

Aims Changes in soil microbial communities after occupation by invasive alien plants can represent legacy effects of invasion that may limit recolonization and establishment of native plant species in soils previously occupied by the invader. In this study, for three sites in southern Germany, we investigated whether invasion by giant goldenrod (Solidago gigantea) leads to changes in soil biota that result in reduced growth of native plants compared with neighbouring uninvaded soils.Methods We grew four native plant species as a community and treated those plants with soil solutions from invaded or uninvaded soils that were sterilized, or live, with live solutions containing different fractions of the soil biota using a decreasing sieve mesh-size approach. We measured aboveground biomass of the plants in the communities after a 10-week growth period.Main Findings Across all three sites and regardless of invasion, communities treated with <20 μm soil biota or sterilized soil solutions had significantly greater biomass than communities treated with the complete soil biota solution. This indicates that soil biota>20 μm are more pathogenic to the native plants than smaller organisms in these soils. Across all three sites, there was only a non-significant tendency for the native community biomass to differ among soil solution types, depending on whether or not the soil was invaded. Only one site showed significant differences in community biomass among soil solution types, depending on whether or not the soil was invaded; community biomass was significantly lower when treated with the complete soil biota solution than with soil biota <20 μm or sterilized soil solutions, but only for the invaded soil. Our findings suggest that efforts to restore native communities on soils previously invaded by Solidago gigantea are unlikely to be hindered by changes in soil microbial community composition as a result of previous invasion.     

外来种入侵的不确定性动态模拟

外来种的入侵性和生境的可入侵性是研究生物入侵机制的两个关键因素。总结多数学者的研究成果,认为外来种的拓殖率(迁移率或繁殖率)、死亡率及在新生境中的竞争力是衡量外来种能否入侵成功的内在实质。从全新的角度出发,将引入的外来种看作是对原有生态系统的一种干扰,并在此基础上结合Tilman的多物种共存模型提出了外来种干扰模型。模拟发现外来种在入侵时具有明显的不确定性。拓殖率小的外来种在新的生态系统中由于不能适应环境无法成功定殖,被排斥在系统之外;相反,拓殖率足够大的话,外来种由于自身优势具有很强的入侵性,在几年或几十年的时间内就会成功地在新的环境中建立种群并拓殖入侵,影响了当地物种的生存及原有生态系统的稳定。研究还发现,物种入侵也存在一定的不确定性,入侵不一定会一直持续下去,或许在百年或几百年的时间内入侵种会突然灭绝,原生态系统又恢复到原来的水平。     

Species pools,community completeness and invasion: disentangling diversity effects on the establishment of native and alien species

Invasion should decline with species richness, yet the relationship is inconsistent. Species richness, however, is a product of species pool size and biotic filtering. Invasion may increase with richness if large species pools represent weaker environmental filters. Measuring species pool size and the proportion realised locally (completeness) may clarify diversity‐invasion relationships by separating environmental and biotic effects, especially if species’ life‐history stage and origin are accounted for. To test these relationships, we added seeds and transplants of 15 native and alien species into 29 grasslands. Species pool size and completeness explained more variation in invasion than richness alone. Although results varied between native and alien species, seed establishment and biotic resistance to transplants increased with species pool size, whereas transplant growth and biotic resistance to seeds increased with completeness. Consequently, species pools and completeness represent multiple independent processes affecting invasion; accounting for these processes improves our understanding of invasion.     

Niche shift versus niche conservatism? Climatic characteristics of the native and invasive ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus)

Aim The use of ecological niche models (ENMs) to predict potential distributions of species is steadily increasing. A necessary assumption is that climatic niches are conservative, but recent findings of niche shifts during biological invasion indicate that this assumption is not always valid. Selection of predictor variables may be one reason for the observed shifts. In this paper we assess differences in climatic niches in the native and invaded ranges of the Mediterranean house gecko (Hemidactylus turcicus) in terms of commonly applied climate variables in ENMs. We analyse which variables are more conserved versus relaxed (i.e. subject to niche shift). Furthermore, we study the predictive power of different sets of climate variables. Location The Mediterranean region and North America. Methods We developed models using Maxent and various subsets of variables out of 19 bioclimatic layers including: (1) two subsets comprising almost all variables excluding only highly collinear ones; (2) two subsets with minimalistic variable sets of water availability and energy measures; (3) two subsets focused on temperature‐related parameters; (4) two subsets with precipitation‐related parameters; and (5) one subset comprising variables combining temperature and precipitation characteristics. Occurrence data from the native Mediterranean range were used to predict the potential introduced range in North America and vice versa. Degrees of niche similarity and conservatism were assessed using both Schoener's index and Hellinger distances. The significance of the results was tested using null models. Results The degree of niche similarity and conservatism varied greatly among the predictors and variable sets applied. Shifts observed in some variables could be attributed to active habitat selection while others apparently reflected background effects. Main conclusions The study was based on comprehensive occurrence data from all regions where Hemidactylus turcicus is present in Europe and North America, providing a robust foundation. Our results clearly indicate that the degree of conservatism of niches in H. turcicus largely varies among predictors and variable sets applied. Therefore, the extent of niche conservatism of variables applied should always be tested in ENMs. This has an important impact on studies of biological invasion, impacts of climate change and niche evolution.     

外来种-本地种亲缘关系对外来植物归化和入侵的影响

达尔文归化难题描述了外来种-本地种亲缘关系促进(预适应假说)或阻止(达尔文归化假说)外来种成功入侵的悖论。目前, 在中国仍缺少针对达尔文归化难题的研究。为系统研究外来种-本地种亲缘关系对中国外来植物入侵的影响, 该文利用线性混合效应模型从省级、市级和群落3个空间尺度以及归化、扩散和入侵3个阶段探究了外来种-本地种谱系距离和外来植物表现的关系。结果表明: 在省级和市级(区域)尺度上, 与本地种亲缘关系较近的外来植物更有可能在当地归化和扩散, 符合预适应假说的预期; 而在群落(局域)尺度上, 外来种-本地种亲缘距离与外来种是否在群落中成功定居及其入侵程度无关。该研究结果表明与本地区系亲缘较近的外来种和本地种的竞争并不强烈, 却能较好地适应本地气候环境而具有更强的归化和入侵潜力。因此, 在今后的外来植物管理和治理中需要尤其重视与本地区系亲缘关系较近的外来植物。     

Effects of exotic-native species relationship on naturalization and invasion of exotic plant species

达尔文归化难题描述了外来种-本地种亲缘关系促进(预适应假说)或阻止(达尔文归化假说)外来种成功入侵的悖论。目前, 在中国仍缺少针对达尔文归化难题的研究。为系统研究外来种-本地种亲缘关系对中国外来植物入侵的影响, 该文利用线性混合效应模型从省级、市级和群落3个空间尺度以及归化、扩散和入侵3个阶段探究了外来种-本地种谱系距离和外来植物表现的关系。结果表明: 在省级和市级(区域)尺度上, 与本地种亲缘关系较近的外来植物更有可能在当地归化和扩散, 符合预适应假说的预期; 而在群落(局域)尺度上, 外来种-本地种亲缘距离与外来种是否在群落中成功定居及其入侵程度无关。该研究结果表明与本地区系亲缘较近的外来种和本地种的竞争并不强烈, 却能较好地适应本地气候环境而具有更强的归化和入侵潜力。因此, 在今后的外来植物管理和治理中需要尤其重视与本地区系亲缘关系较近的外来植物。     

Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models

Aim Niche‐based distribution models are often used to predict the spread of invasive species. These models assume niche conservation during invasion, but invasive species can have different requirements from populations in their native range for many reasons, including niche evolution. I used distribution modelling to investigate niche conservatism for the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus Skuse) during its invasion of three continents. I also used this approach to predict areas at risk of invasion from propagules originating from invasive populations. Location Models were created for Southeast Asia, North and South America, and Europe. Methods I used maximum entropy (Maxent ) to create distribution models using occurrence data and 18 environmental datasets. One native model was created for Southeast Asia; this model was projected onto North America, South America and Europe. Three models were created independently for the non‐native ranges and projected onto the native range. Niche overlap between native and non‐native predictions was evaluated by comparing probability surfaces between models using real data and random models generated using a permutation approach. Results The native model failed to predict an entire region of occurrences in South America, approximately 20% of occurrences in North America and nearly all Italian occurrences of A. albopictus. Non‐native models poorly predict the native range, but predict additional areas at risk for invasion globally. Niche overlap metrics indicate that non‐native distributions are more similar to the native niche than a random prediction, but they are not equivalent. Multivariate analyses support modelled differences in niche characteristics among continents, and reveal important variables explaining these differences. Main conclusions The niche of A. albopictus has shifted on invaded continents relative to its native range (Southeast Asia). Statistical comparisons reveal that the niche for introduced distributions is not equivalent to the native niche. Furthermore, reciprocal models highlight the importance of controlling bi‐directional dispersal between native and non‐native distributions.     

Biotic resistance to invasion along an estuarine gradient

Biotic resistance is the ability of native communities to repel the establishment of invasive species. Predation by native species may confer biotic resistance to communities, but the environmental context under which this form of biotic resistance occurs is not well understood. We evaluated several factors that influence the distribution of invasive Asian mussels (Musculista senhousia) in Mission Bay, a southern California estuary containing an extensive eelgrass (Zostera marina) habitat. Asian mussels exhibit a distinct spatial pattern of invasion, with extremely high densities towards the back of Mission Bay (up to 4,000 m⁻²) in contrast with near-complete absence at sites towards the front of the bay. We established that recruits arrived at sites where adult mussels were absent and found that dense eelgrass does not appear to preclude Asian mussel growth and survival. Mussel survival and growth were high in predator-exclusion plots throughout the bay, but mussel survival was low in the front of the bay when plots were open to predators. Additional experiments revealed that consumption by spiny lobsters (Panulirus interruptus) and a gastropod (Pteropurpura festiva) likely are the primary factors responsible for resistance to Asian mussel invasion. However, biotic resistance was dependent on location within the estuary (for both species) and also on the availability of a hard substratum (for P. festiva). Our findings indicate that biotic resistance in the form of predation may be conferred by higher order predators, but that the strength of resistance may strongly vary across estuarine gradients and depend on the nature of the locally available habitat.     

Habitat, predation, and coexistence between invasive and native crayfishes: prioritizing lakes for invasion prevention

Conditions fostering coexistence of native species with invasive species have received little attention in invasion biology, especially for closely related invasive and native species. We used long-term datasets on multiple replicate invasions to define conditions under which native virile crayfish (Orconectes virilis) can coexist with invasive rusty crayfish (O. rusticus). We examined multiple drivers of coexistence involving habitat use and predation at between-lake and within-lake scales to derive predictions that could guide prioritization efforts to prevent future introductions of rusty crayfish and mitigate impacts of existing invasions. Lakes in which native species persisted for many years had significantly less cobble and sand habitats, and significantly more vegetated habitats compared to lakes from which native crayfish have been displaced. In the presence of rusty crayfish, virile crayfish alter their habitat use to vegetated habitats relative to habitat use in the absence of rusty crayfish. Such vegetated habitats had greater plant standing crop, plant species richness, and sediment percent organic matter compared to vegetated sites occupied by rusty crayfish. Our results suggest that low abundance of cobble habitat and altered habitat use allows native crayfish to coexist with the rusty crayfish invader. At the within-lake scale, virile crayfish persist by escaping predation in the vegetated habitats, despite suboptimal abiotic conditions. By understanding these abiotic and biotic conditions that promote coexistence, managers could enhance native crayfish persistence by targeting high cobble lakes for efforts to prevent the introduction of invasive crayfish, and targeting vegetated habitats for protection in already invaded lakes.     

Macro and Microhabitat Associations of the Peter's Tent‐Roosting Bat (Uroderma bilobatum): Human‐Induced Selection and Colonization?

Understanding species‐specific habitat selection is essential to identify how natural systems are assembled and maintained, and how emerging natural and anthropogenic disturbances will affect ecosystem function. In the Neotropics, Peter's tent‐roosting bat (Uroderma bilobatum), known to roost in forests, has become abundant in human‐modified areas. To understand how habitat characteristics in both intact forest and human‐modified areas influence the presence and density of U. bilobatum, we characterized habitat use at two scales (macrohabitat and microhabitat) and used logistic and poisson regressions to determine which habitat characteristics best predicted the presence and density of U. bilobatum within each scale. Moreover, we performed a redundancy analysis to determine which habitat scale explained more variation. As these bats are obligate tent roosters, we used tent as a surrogate for bat presence and density. We found that both macrohabitat and microhabitat scales explained variation in presence and density. Characteristics of the microhabitat scale, however, had higher predictive power, revealing that U. bilobatum preferentially inhabits areas with high density of coconut palms. Coconut palms were introduced recently in the Neotropics and are found only in human‐modified areas. Therefore, we hypothesize that U. bilobatum is expanding its range into these areas following the expanded distribution of this exotic plant species.     

Assessing the importance of disturbance, site conditions, and the biotic barrier for dandelion invasion in an Alpine habitat

Several factors have been identified as relevant in determining the abundance of non-native invasive species. Nevertheless, the relative importance of these factors will vary depending on the invaded habitat and the characteristics of the invasive species. Due to their harsh environmental conditions and remoteness, high-alpine habitats are often considered to be at low risk of plant invasion. However, an increasing number of reports have shown the presence and spread of non-native plant species in alpine habitats; thus, it is important to study which factors control the invasion process in these harsh habitats. In this study, we assessed the role of disturbance, soil characteristics, biotic resistance and seed rain in the establishment and abundance of the non-native invasive species Taraxacum officinale (dandelion) in the Andes of central Chile. By focusing on human-disturbed patches, naturally disturbed patches, and undisturbed patches, we did not find that disturbance per se, or its origin, affected the establishment and abundance of T. officinale. The abundance of this non-native invasive species was not negatively related to the diversity of native species at local scales, indicating no biotic resistance to invasion; instead, some positive relationships were found. Our results indicate that propagule pressure (assessed by the seed rain) and the abiotic soil characteristics are the main factors related to the abundance of this non-native invasive species. Hence, in contrast to what has been found for more benign habitats, disturbance and biotic resistance have little influence on the invasibility of T. officinale in this high-alpine habitat.     

Your worst enemy could be your best friend: predator contributions to invasion resistance and persistence of natives

Native predators are postulated to have an important role in biotic resistance of communities to invasion and community resilience. Effects of predators can be complex, and mechanisms by which predators affect invasion success and impact are understood for only a few well-studied communities. We tested experimentally whether a native predator limits an invasive species’ success and impact on a native competitor for a community of aquatic insect larvae in water-filled containers. The native mosquito Aedes triseriatus alone had no significant effect on abundance of the invasive mosquito Aedes albopictus. The native predatory midge Corethrella appendiculata, at low or high density, significantly reduced A. albopictus abundance. This effect was not caused by trait-mediated oviposition avoidance of containers with predators, but instead was a density-mediated effect caused by predator-induced mortality. The presence of this predator significantly reduced survivorship of the native species, but high predator density also significantly increased development rate of the native species when the invader was present, consistent with predator-mediated release from interspecific competition with the invader. Thus, a native predator can indirectly benefit its native prey when a superior competitor invades. This shows the importance of native predators as a component of biodiversity for both biotic resistance to invasion and resilience of a community perturbed by successful invasion.     

Life History Traits and Niche Instability Impact Accuracy and Temporal Transferability for Historically Calibrated Distribution Models of North American Birds

A primary assumption of environmental niche models (ENMs) is that models are both accurate and transferable across geography or time; however, recent work has shown that models may be accurate but not highly transferable. While some of this is due to modeling technique, individual species ecologies may also underlie this phenomenon. Life history traits certainly influence the accuracy of predictive ENMs, but their impact on model transferability is less understood. This study investigated how life history traits influence the predictive accuracy and transferability of ENMs using historically calibrated models for birds. In this study I used historical occurrence and climate data (1950-1990s) to build models for a sample of birds, and then projected them forward to the ‘future’ (1960-1990s). The models were then validated against models generated from occurrence data at that ‘future’ time. Internal and external validation metrics, as well as metrics assessing transferability, and Generalized Linear Models were used to identify life history traits that were significant predictors of accuracy and transferability. This study found that the predictive ability of ENMs differs with regard to life history characteristics such as range, migration, and habitat, and that the rarity versus commonness of a species affects the predicted stability and overlap and hence the transferability of projected models. Projected ENMs with both high accuracy and transferability scores, still sometimes suffered from over- or under- predicted species ranges. Life history traits certainly influenced the accuracy of predictive ENMs for birds, but while aspects of geographic range impact model transferability, the mechanisms underlying this are less understood.     

Resource availability and plant diversity explain patterns of invasion of an exotic grass

Aims In this study, we examine two common invasion biology hypotheses—biotic resistance and fluctuating resource availability—to explain the patterns of invasion of an invasive grass, Microstegium vimineum.Methods We used 13-year-old deer exclosures in Great Smoky Mountains National Park, USA, to examine how chronic disturbance by deer browsing affects available resources, plant diversity, and invasion in an understory plant community. Using two replicate 1 m 2 plots in each deer browsed and unbrowsed area, we recorded each plant species present, the abundance per species, and the fractional percent cover of vegetation by the cover classes: herbaceous, woody, and graminoid. For each sample plot, we also estimated overstory canopy cover, soil moisture, total soil carbon and nitrogen, and soil pH as a measure of abiotic differences between plots.Important findings We found that plant community composition between chronically browsed and unbrowsed plots differed markedly. Plant diversity was 40% lower in browsed than in unbrowsed plots. At our sites, diversity explained 48% and woody plant cover 35% of the variation in M. vimineum abundance. In addition, we found 3.3 times less M. vimineum in the unbrowsed plots due to higher woody plant cover and plant diversity than in the browsed plots. A parsimonious explanation of these results indicate that disturbances such as herbivory may elicit multiple conditions, namely releasing available resources such as open space, light, and decreasing plant diversity, which may facilitate the proliferation of an invasive species. Finally, by testing two different hypotheses, this study addresses more recent calls to incorporate multiple hypotheses into research attempting to explain plant invasion.     

Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species’ entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species’ entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.     

Matrix analysis to model the invasion of alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides) on Kentucky lakes

Aims Alligatorweed (Alternanthera philoxeroides (Mart.) Griseb.) is an invasive species indigenous to South America. With its rapid invasion of southeastern US waterways, understanding the invasiveness of this plant species is critical for providing possible mechanisms of prevention for resource managers. The aim of this project is to use a matrix model to study the invasion dynamics of alligatorweed under both terrestrial and aquatic environments. The use of this model allows for a deeper understanding of the invasiveness and life history–stage structure of alligatorweed. In particular, matrix analysis can further test the hypothesis that certain life stages of alligatorweed might be more sensitive to control and management.Methods A greenhouse experiment was conducted to study the spread of alligatorweed under both aquatic and terrestrial environments. Utilizing the growth data obtained during the summer of 2010, matrix analysis was used to model the growth of alligatorweed for six different treatments. Transition matrices were generated based on plant measurements taken at different life stages defined by the number of leaves or nodes. These matrices are population projection models whose eigenvalues represent the growth rate of alligatorweed. A high growth rate is a key feature of successful invaders. Residuals were calculated and sensitivity analysis was performed to test the accuracy of the model and importance of each life stage over the entire life cycle of alligatorweed.Important findings The results of this study indicate that in the aquatic habitat, plants at their early life cycle stage are most sensitive to potential control measures. Conversely, in the terrestrial habitat, the most sensitive stage of alligatorweed is at its late life cycle stage, characterized with large-sized plants, thus suggesting the best timing for management and eradication of this invasive species.