CALIBRATING DIVERGENCE TIMES ON SPECIES TREES VERSUS GENE TREES: IMPLICATIONS FOR SPECIATION HISTORY OF APHELOCOMA JAYS

Estimates of the timing of divergence are central to testing the underlying causes of speciation. Relaxed molecular clocks and fossil calibration have improved these estimates; however, these advances are implemented in the context of gene trees, which can overestimate divergence times. Here we couple recent innovations for dating speciation events with the analytical power of species trees, where multilocus data are considered in a coalescent context. Divergence times are estimated in the bird genus Aphelocoma to test whether speciation in these jays coincided with mountain uplift or glacial cycles. Gene trees and species trees show general agreement that diversification began in the Miocene amid mountain uplift. However, dates from the multilocus species tree are more recent, occurring predominately in the Pleistocene, consistent with theory that divergence times can be significantly overestimated with gene‐tree based approaches that do not correct for genetic divergence that predates speciation. In addition to coalescent stochasticity, Haldane's rule could account for some differences in timing estimates between mitochondrial DNA and nuclear genes. By incorporating a fossil calibration applied to the species tree, in addition to the process of gene lineage coalescence, the present approach provides a more biologically realistic framework for dating speciation events, and hence for testing the links between diversification and specific biogeographic and geologic events.     

Deceleration of morphological evolution in a cryptic species complex and its link to paleontological stasis

Morphological stasis or the absence of morphological change is a well-known phenomenon in the paleontological record, yet it is poorly integrated with neontological evidence. Recent evidence suggests that cryptic species complexes may remain morphologically identical due to morphological stasis. Here, we describe a case of long-term stasis in the Stygocapitella cryptic species complex (Parergodrilidae, Orbiniida, Annelida). Using phylogenetic methods and morphological data, we find that rates of morphological evolution in Stygocapitella are significantly slower than in closely related taxa (Nerillidae, Orbiniidae). Assessment of quantitative and qualitative morphology revealed the presence of four morphotypes with only subtle differences, whereas molecular data supports 10 reproductively isolated clades. Notably, estimates for the time of Stygocapitella species divergence range from ∼275 million years to ∼18 million years, including one case of two morphologically similar species that have diverged about 140 million years ago. These findings provide evidence for morphological deceleration and long-term morphological stasis in Stygocapitella, and that speciation is not necessarily accompanied by morphological changes. The deceleration of morphological divergence in Stygocapitella can be potentially linked to niche conservatism and tracking, coupled with the fluctuating dynamics of the interstitial environment, or genetic constraints due to progenetic evolution. Finally, we conclude that failing to integrate speciation without morphological evolution in paleontology may bias estimates of rates of speciation and morphological evolution.     

Pleistocene speciation in the genus Populus (salicaceae)

The macroevolutionary consequences of recent climate change remain controversial, and there is little paleobotanical or morphological evidence that Pleistocene (1.8-0.12 Ma) glacial cycles acted as drivers of speciation, especially among lineages with long generation times, such as trees. We combined genetic and ecogeographic data from 2 closely related North American tree species, Populus balsamifera and P. trichocarpa (Salicacaeae), to determine if their divergence coincided with and was possibly caused by Pleistocene climatic events. We analyzed 32 nuclear loci from individuals of P. balsamifera and P. trichocarpa to produce coalescent-based estimates of the divergence time between the 2 species. We coupled the coalescent analyses with paleodistribution models to assess the influence of climate change on species' range. Furthermore, measures of niche overlap were used to investigate patterns of ecological differentiation between species. We estimated the divergence date of P. balsamifera and P. trichocarpa at approximately 75 Ka, which corresponds closely with the onset of Marine Isotope Stage 4 (～76 Ka) and a rapid increase in global ice volume. Significance tests of niche overlap, in conjunction with genetic estimates of migration, suggested that speciation occurred in allopatry, possibly resulting from the environmental effects of Pleistocene glacial cycles. Our results indicate that the divergence of keystone tree species, which have shaped community diversity in northern North American ecosystems, was recent and may have been a consequence of Pleistocene-era glaciation and climate change.     

Molecular distance and divergence time in carnivores and primates

Numerous studies have used indices of genetic distance between species to reconstruct evolutionary relationships and to estimate divergence time. However, the empirical relationship between molecular-based indices of genetic divergence and divergence time based on the fossil record is poorly known. To date, the results of empirical studies conflict and are difficult to compare because they differ widely in their choice of taxa, genetic techniques, or methods for calibrating rates of molecular evolution. We use a single methodology to analyze the relationship of molecular distance and divergence time in 86 taxa (72 carnivores and 14 primates). These taxa have divergence times of 0.01-55 Myr and provide a graded series of phylogenetic divergences such that the shape of the curve relating genetic distance and divergence time is often well defined. The techniques used to obtain genetic distance estimates include one- and two-dimensional protein electrophoresis, DNA hybridization, and microcomplement fixation. Our results suggest that estimates of molecular distance and divergence time are highly correlated. However, rates of molecular evolution are not constant; rather, in general they decline with increasing divergence time in a linear fashion. The rate of decline may differ according to technique and taxa. Moreover, in some cases the variability in evolutionary rates changes with increasing divergence time such that the accuracy of nodes in a phylogenetic tree varies predictably with time.     

Divergence times in the termite genus Macrotermes (Isoptera: Termitidae)

The evolution of fungus-growing termites is supposed to have started in the African rain forests with multiple invasions of semi-arid habitats as well as multiple invasions of the Oriental region. We used sequences of the mitochondrial COII gene and Bayesian dating to investigate the time frame of the evolution of Macrotermes, an important genus of fungus-growing termites. We found that the genus Macrotermes consists of at least 6 distantly related clades. Furthermore, the COII sequences suggested some cryptic diversity within the analysed African Macrotermes species. The dates calculated with the COII data using a fossilized termite mound to calibrate the clock were in good agreement with dates calculated with COI sequences using the split between Locusta and Chortippus as calibration point which supports the consistency of the calibration points. The clades from the Oriental region dated back to the early Tertiary. These estimates of divergence times suggested that Macrotermes invaded Asia during periods with humid climates. For Africa, many speciation events predated the Pleistocene and fall in range of 6-23 million years ago. These estimates suggest that savannah-adapted African clades radiated with the spread of the semi-arid ecosystems during the Miocene. Apparently, events during the Pleistocene were of little importance for speciation within the genus Macrotermes. However, further investigations are necessary to increase the number of taxa for phylogenetic analysis.     

Deep genetic divergences among morphologically similar and parapatric Skistodiaptomus (Copepoda: Calanoida: Diaptomidae) challenge the hypothesis of Pleistocene speciation

We used mitochondrial [cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (CO I ), cytochrome b , and 16S] and nuclear [internal transcribed spacer (ITS) phylogenies of Skistodiaptomus copepods to test hypotheses of Pleistocene divergence and speciation within the genus. Mitochondrial (mt)DNA sequence divergences do not support hypotheses for Pleistocene speciation and instead suggest much more ancient speciation events in the genus. Skistodiaptomus oregonensis and Skistodiaptomus pygmaeus (i.e. two morphologically similar and parapatric species) exhibited uncorrected mtDNA sequence divergences exceeding 20%. Similarly, we identified three divergent clades of Skistodiaptomus pallidus that exhibited mtDNA sequence divergences exceeding 15%, suggesting that even intraspecific divergence within this morphospecies predates the Pleistocene. We found clear evidence of CO I pseudogenes in S. pygmaeus , but their presence did not lead to significant overestimates of sequence divergences for this gene. Substitution saturation and strong purifying selection have most likely led to underestimates of sequence divergences and divergence times among Skistodiaptomus . The widespread phenomenon of morphological stasis among genetically divergent copepod groups indicates that speciation often occurs with little or no morphological change. Instead, morphological evolution may occur idiosyncratically after speciation and create discordant patterns of morphological similarity, shared ancestry and divergence time. Cryptic species complexes are therefore common in copepods, and morphological species concepts underestimate their true species diversity.  © 2009 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society , 2009, 96 , 150–165.     

Phylogeography and species biogeography of montane Great Basin stoneflies

Sky islands are ideal systems for determining the effects of climatic oscillations on species distributions and genetic structure. Our study focused on montane stonefly populations in the Great Basin of western North America. We used niche-based distribution modelling, phylogeography and traditional species-based biogeography to test several hypotheses as follows: (i) genetic differentiation among Doroneuria baumanni populations will be independent of hydrologic connectivity (headwater model); (ii) Sky islands were colonized when habitat was more continuous and populations likely experienced multiple expansions and contractions; (iii) Colonization events were coincident with the late Pleistocene and Holocene; and (iv) Shared topography and climate history will result in concordant patterns of genetic differentiation in D. baumanni and occurrences of 32 stonefly species across the region. Overall, Φ(ST) 's and coalescent-based estimates of migration were consistent with the headwater model. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian gene trees identified three major nonoverlapping east-west clades. Distribution modelling indicated more suitable habitat in the Great Basin during the Last Glacial Maximum than at present, but none during the last interglacial period. Demographic analyses showed evidence of population expansion in one of the three major east-west clades. Intra-clade divergence times (60,000-183,000ybp) were well within the late Pleistocene while among-clade divergence times (499.000-719,000ybp) were deeper. Genetic differentiation in D. baumanni and distributions of stonefly species were significantly concordant. These results imply that climatic oscillations have played major roles in shaping the genetic structure and distributions of Great Basin stoneflies, but that divergence among clades occurred much earlier than our late Pleistocence/early Holocene predictions.     

Vicariance and dispersal effects on phylogeographic structure and speciation in a widespread estuarine invertebrate

Vicariance and dispersal can strongly influence population genetic structure and allopatric speciation, but their importance in the origin of marine biodiversity is unresolved. In transitional estuarine environments, habitat discreteness and dispersal barriers could enhance divergence and provide insight to evolutionary mechanisms underlying marine and freshwater biodiversity. We examined this by assessing phylogeographic structure in the widespread amphipod Gammarus tigrinus across 13 estuaries spanning its northwest Atlantic range from Quebec to Florida. Mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase I and nuclear internal transcribed spacer 1 phylogenies supported deep genetic structure consistent with Pliocene separation and cryptic northern and southern species. This break occurred across the Virginian-Carolinian coastal biogeographic zone, where an oceanographic discontinuity may restrict gene flow. Ten estuarine populations of the northern species occurred in four distinct clades, supportive of Pleistocene separation. Glaciation effects on genetic structure of estuarine populations are largely unknown, but analysis of molecular variance (AMOVA) supported a phylogeographic break among clades in formerly glaciated versus nonglaciated areas across Cape Cod, Massachusetts. This finding was concordant with patterns in other coastal species, though there was no significant relationship between latitude and genetic diversity. This supports Pleistocene vicariance events and divergence of clades in different northern glacial refugia. AMOVA results and private haplotypes in most populations support an allopatric distribution across estuaries. Clade mixture zones are consistent with historical colonization and human-mediated transfer. An isolation-by-distance model of divergence was detected after we excluded a suspected invasive haplotype in the St. Lawrence estuary. The occurrence of cryptic species and divergent population structure support limited dispersal, dispersed habitat distribution, and historical factors as important determinants of estuarine speciation and diversification.     

Comparative Phyloclimatic Analysis and Evolution of Ecological Niches in the Scimitar Babblers (Aves: Timaliidae: Pomatorhinus)

We present the first extensive and integrative analysis of niche evolution based on climatic variables and a dated molecular phylogeny of a heterogeneous avian group of Southeast Asian scimitar babblers of the genus Pomatorhinus. The four main clades of scimitar babblers have species that co-occur in similar areas across southern Asia but some have diverged at different timeframes, with the most recently evolved clade harboring the highest number of species. Ecological niche models and analysis of contributing variables within a phylogenetic framework indicate instances of convergent evolution of members of different clades onto similar ecological parameter space, as well as divergent evolution of members from within clades. Pomatorhinus species from different clades occupying Himalayan foothills show convergence towards similar climatic tolerances, whereas within a clade, allopatric sister-species occurring in the Himalayas have diverged to occupy different climatic parameter spaces. Comparisons of climatic tolerances of Himalayan foothills taxa with species distributed further south in Assam/Burma and Burma/Thailand indicate convergence towards similar parameter spaces in several climatic variables. Niche overlap was observed to be lower among species of the youngest clade (ruficollis) and higher among species of older clades (ferruginosus). Analysis of accumulation of ecological disparity through time indicates rapid divergence within recent time frames. As a result, Himalayan taxa originating at different temporal scales within the four main scimitar babbler clades have differentiated ecologically only in recently diverged taxa. Our study suggests that the repeated orogenic and climatic fluctuations of the Pliocene and Pleistocene within mainland Southeast Asia served as an important ecological speciation driver within scimitar babblers, by providing opportunities for rapid geographic expansion and filling of novel environmental niches.     

Miocene and Pliocene dominated diversification of the lichen-forming fungal genus Melanohalea (Parmeliaceae, Ascomycota) and Pleistocene population expansions

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Factors promoting diversification in lichen symbioses remain largely unexplored. While Pleistocene events have been important for driving diversification and affecting distributions in many groups, recent estimates suggest that major radiations within some genera in the largest clade of macrolichens (Parmeliaceae, Ascomycota) vastly predate the Pleistocene. To better understand the temporal placement and sequence of diversification events in lichens, we estimated divergence times in a common lichen-forming fungal genus, Melanohalea, in the Northern Hemisphere. Divergence times were estimated using both concatenated gene tree and coalescence-based multilocus species tree approaches to assess the temporal context of major radiation events within Melanohalea. In order to complement our understanding of processes impacting genetic differentiation, we also evaluated the effects of Pleistocene glacial cycles on population demographics of distinct Melanohalea lineages, differing in reproductive strategies. RESULTS: We found that divergence estimates, from both concatenated gene tree and coalescence-based multilocus species tree approaches, suggest that diversification within Melanohalea occurred predominantly during the Miocene and Pliocene, although estimated of divergence times differed by up to 8.3 million years between the two methods. These results indicate that, in some cases, taxonomically diagnostic characters may be maintained among divergent lineages for millions of years. In other cases, similar phenotypic characters among non-sister taxa, including reproductive strategies, suggest the potential for convergent evolution due to similar selective pressures among distinct lineages. Our analyses provide evidence of population expansions predating the last glacial maximum in the sampled lineages. These results suggest that Pleistocene glaciations were not inherently unfavorable or restrictive for some Melanohalea species, albeit with apparently different demographic histories between sexually and vegetatively reproducing lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Our results contribute to the understanding of how major changes during the Miocene and Pliocene have been important in promoting diversification within common lichen-forming fungi in the northern Hemisphere. Additionally, we provide evidence that glacial oscillations have influenced current population structure of broadly distributed lichenized fungal species throughout the Holarctic.     

Baboon phylogeny as inferred from complete mitochondrial genomes

Baboons (genus Papio) are an interesting phylogeographical primate model for the evolution of savanna species during the Pleistocene. Earlier studies, based on partial mitochondrial sequence information, revealed seven major haplogroups indicating multiple para‐ and polyphylies among the six baboon species. The most basal splits among baboon lineages remained unresolved and the credibility intervals for divergence time estimates were rather large. Assuming that genetic variation within the two studied mitochondrial loci so far was insufficient to infer the apparently rapid early radiation of baboons we used complete mitochondrial sequence information of ten specimens, representing all major baboon lineages, to reconstruct a baboon phylogeny and to re‐estimate divergence times. Our data confirmed the earlier tree topology including the para‐ and polyphyletic relationships of most baboon species; divergence time estimates are slightly younger and credibility intervals narrowed substantially, thus making the estimates more precise. However, the most basal relationships could not be resolved and it remains open whether (1) the most southern population of baboons diverged first or (2) a major split occurred between southern and northern clades. Our study shows that complete mitochondrial genome sequences are more effective to reconstruct robust phylogenies and to narrow down estimated divergence time intervals than only short portions of the mitochondrial genome, although there are also limitations in resolving phylogenetic relationships. Am J Phys Anthropol, 2013. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Pleistocene climatic fluctuations explain the disjunct distribution and complex phylogeographic structure of the Southern Red-backed Salamander, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Plethodon serratus</Emphasis>

The southeastern United States (U.S.) has experienced dynamic climatic changes over the past several million years that have impacted species distributions. In many cases, contiguous ranges were fragmented and a lack of gene flow between allopatric populations led to genetic divergence and speciation. The Southern Red-backed Salamander, Plethodon serratus, inhabits four widely disjunct regions of the southeastern U.S.: the southern Appalachian Mountains, the Ozark Plateau, the Ouachita Mountains, and the Southern Tertiary Uplands of central Louisiana. We integrated phylogenetic analysis of mitochondrial DNA sequences (1399 base pairs) with ecological niche modeling to test the hypothesis that climate fluctuations during the Pleistocene drove the isolation and divergence of disjunct populations of P. serratus. Appalachian, Ozark, and Louisiana populations each formed well-supported clades in our phylogeny. Ouachita Mountain populations sorted into two geographically distinct clades; one Ouachita clade was sister to the Louisiana clade whereas the other Ouachita clade grouped with the Appalachian and Ozark clades but relationships were unresolved. Plethodon serratus diverged from its sister taxon, P. sherando, ~5.4 million years ago (Ma), and lineage diversification within P. serratus occurred ~1.9–0.6 Ma (Pleistocene). Ecological niche models showed that the four geographic isolates of P. serratus are currently separated by unsuitable habitat, but the species was likely more continuously distributed during the colder climates of the Pleistocene. Our results support the hypothesis that climate-induced environmental changes during the Pleistocene played a dominant role in driving isolation and divergence of disjunct populations of P. serratus.     

Is Gene Flow Promoting the Reversal of Pleistocene Divergence in the Mountain Chickadee (Poecile gambeli)?

The Pleistocene glacial cycles left a genetic legacy on taxa throughout the world; however, the persistence of genetic lineages that diverged during these cycles is dependent upon levels of gene flow and introgression. The consequences of secondary contact among taxa may reveal new insights into the history of the Pleistocene’s genetic legacy. Here, we use phylogeographic methods, using 20 nuclear loci from regional populations, to infer the consequences of secondary contact following divergence in the Mountain Chickadee (Poecile gambeli). Analysis of nuclear data identified two geographically-structured genetic groups, largely concordant with results from a previous mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) study. Additionally, the estimated multilocus divergence times indicate a Pleistocene divergence, and are highly concordant with mtDNA. The previous mtDNA study showed a paucity of sympatry between clades, while nuclear patterns of gene flow show highly varied patterns between populations. The observed pattern of gene flow, from coalescent-based analyses, indicates southern populations in both clades exhibit little gene flow within or between clades, while northern populations are experiencing higher gene flow within and between clades. If this pattern were to persist, it is possible the historical legacy of Pleistocene divergence may be preserved in the southern populations only, and the northern populations would become a genetically diverse hybrid species.     

Paraphyletic species no more – genomic data resolve a Pleistocene radiation and validate morphological species of the Melanoplus scudderi complex (Insecta: Orthoptera)

Rapid speciation events, with taxa generated over a short time period, are among the most investigated biological phenomena. However, molecular systematics often reveals contradictory results compared with morphological/phenotypical diagnoses of species under scenarios of recent and rapid diversification. In this study, we used molecular data from an average of over 29 000 loci per sample from RADseq to reconstruct the diversification history and delimit the species boundary in a short-winged grasshopper species complex (Melanoplus scudderi group), where Pleistocene diversification has been hypothesized to generate more than 20 putative species with distinct male genitalic shapes. We found that, based on a maximum likelihood molecular phylogeny, each morphological species indeed forms a monophyletic group, contrary to the result from a previous mitochondrial DNA sequence study. By dating the diversification events, the species complex is estimated to have diversified during the Late Pleistocene, supporting the recent radiation hypothesis. Furthermore, coalescent-based species delimitation analyses provide quantitative support for independent genetic lineages, which corresponds to the morphologically defined species. Our results also showed that male genitalic shape may not be predicted by evolutionary distance among species, not only indicating that this trait is labile, but also implying that selection may play a role in character divergence. Additionally, our findings suggest that the rapid speciation events in this flightless grasshopper complex might be primarily associated with the fragmentation of their grassland habitats during the Late Pleistocene. Collectively, our study highlights the importance of integrating multiple sources of information to delineate species, especially for a species complex that diversified rapidly, and whose divergence may be linked to ecological processes that create geographic isolation (i.e. fragmented habitats), as well as selection acting on characters with direct consequences for reproductive isolation (i.e. genitalic divergence).     

Speciation chronology of rockhopper penguins inferred from molecular, geological and palaeoceanographic data

Aim The Southern Ocean is split into several biogeographical provinces between convergence zones that separate watermasses of different temperatures. Recent molecular phylogenies have uncovered a strong phylogeographic structure among rockhopper penguin populations, Eudyptes chrysocome sensu lato, from different biogeographical provinces. These studies suggested a reclassification as three species in two major clades, corresponding, respectively, to warm, subtropical and cold sub‐Antarctic watermasses rather than to geographic proximity. Such a phylogeographic pattern, also observed in plants, invertebrates and fishes of the Southern Ocean, suggests that past changes in the positions of watermasses may have affected the evolutionary history of penguins. We calculated divergence times among various rockhopper penguin clades and calibrated these data with palaeomagmatic and palaeoceanographic events to generate a speciation chronology in rockhopper penguins. Location Southern Ocean. Methods Divergence times between populations were calculated using five distinct mitochondrial DNA loci, and assuming a molecular clock model as implemented in mdiv . The molecular evolution rate of rockhopper penguins was calibrated using the radiochronological age of St Paul Island and Amsterdam Island in the southern Indian Ocean. Separations within other clades were correlated with palaeoceanographic data using this calibrated rate. Results The split between the Atlantic and Indian populations of rockhopper penguins was dated as 0.25 Ma, using the date of emergence of St Paul and Amsterdam islands, and the divergence between sub‐Antarctic and subtropical rockhopper penguins was dated as c. 0.9 Ma (i.e. during the mid‐Pleistocene transition, a major change in the Earth’s climate cycles). Main conclusions The mid‐Pleistocene transition is known to have caused a major southward shift in watermasses in the Southern Ocean, thus changing the environment around the northernmost rockhopper penguin breeding sites. This ecological isolation of northernmost populations may have caused vicariant speciation, splitting the species into two major clades. After the emergence of St Paul and Amsterdam islands in the subtropical Indian Ocean 0.25 Ma, these islands were colonized by penguins from the subtropical Atlantic, 6000 km away, rather than by penguins from the sub‐Antarctic Indian Ocean, 5000 km closer.     

Mortality dynamics of Daphnia in contrasting habitats and their role in ecological divergence

1. The Daphnia pulex‐pulicaria species complex has been proposed as an example of rapid ecological speciation, associated with divergence along the gradient of waterbody size from temporary ponds to deep, stratified lakes. However, this divergence is incomplete, and thus represents an opportunity to study ecological divergence as it is occurring. 2. Dynamics of twelve populations of Daphnia in the pulex‐pulicaria species complex were monitored over 1 year. Six temporary pond populations and six permanent lake populations were compared to evaluate demographic differences that may contribute to ecological divergence in this complex. 3. Pond populations experienced greater changes in density, which were reflected in more extreme growth rates, higher birth rates and higher mortality rates than those of lake populations. 4. Mitochondrial DNA was isolated from up to three clones from each population, the D‐loop of the control region was sequenced, and a phylogenetic tree was constructed. This tree revealed two strongly supported clades. The clades were not congruent with habitat type and nominal status, indicating that interhabitat gene flow occurs easily and that the nominal taxa are incompletely diverged. 5. Published reports of genetic life history differences in the D. pulex‐pulicaria complex are consistent with the demographic differences reported here. This suggests that ecological differences between the habitats are selectively maintaining trait differences despite the possibility for genetic exchange. Thus, these taxa may be at the inception of ecological speciation.     

Different Diversification Rates Between Sexual and Asexual Organisms

Patterns of diversity reflect the balance between speciation and extinction over time. Here we estimate net diversification rates for samples of sexual and asexual rotifers using phylogenetic reconstructions from sequence data of one mtDNA locus, cytochrome oxidase c subunit I. All four clades of bdelloid rotifers, obligate asexuals, had higher number of species per clade and significantly higher accumulation of diversification events towards the root of the trees than the four clades of their sexual relatives, the monogonont rotifers. Such differences were robust to confounding effects of number of analysed sequences, haplotype diversity, overall genetic divergence, age of the clades or geographic coverage. Our results support the idea that differences in diversification rates could thus be ascribed to different mechanisms of speciation, with ecological speciation as the most plausible mechanism for asexual organisms.     

The effect of inappropriate calibration: three case studies in molecular ecology

Time-scales estimated from sequence data play an important role in molecular ecology. They can be used to draw correlations between evolutionary and palaeoclimatic events, to measure the tempo of speciation, and to study the demographic history of an endangered species. In all of these studies, it is paramount to have accurate estimates of time-scales and substitution rates. Molecular ecological studies typically focus on intraspecific data that have evolved on genealogical scales, but often these studies inappropriately employ deep fossil calibrations or canonical substitution rates (e.g., 1% per million years for birds and mammals) for calibrating estimates of divergence times. These approaches can yield misleading estimates of molecular time-scales, with significant impacts on subsequent evolutionary and ecological inferences. We illustrate this calibration problem using three case studies: avian speciation in the late Pleistocene, the demographic history of bowhead whales, and the Pleistocene biogeography of brown bears. For each data set, we compare the date estimates that are obtained using internal and external calibration points. In all three cases, the conclusions are significantly altered by the application of revised, internally-calibrated substitution rates. Collectively, the results emphasise the importance of judicious selection of calibrations for analyses of recent evolutionary events.