Plasma Ascorbic Acid,A Priori Diet Quality Score,and Incident Hypertension: A Prospective Cohort Study

Vitamin C may reduce risk of hypertension, either in itself or by marking a healthy diet pattern. We assessed whether plasma ascorbic acid and the a priori diet quality score relate to incident hypertension and whether they explain each other’s predictive abilities. Data were from 2884 black and white adults (43% black, mean age 35 years) initially hypertension-free in the Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults Study (study year 10, 1995–1996). Plasma ascorbic acid was assessed at year 10 and the diet quality score at year 7. Eight-hundred-and-forty cases of hypertension were documented between years 10 and 25. After multiple adjustments, each 12-point (1 SD) higher diet quality score at year 7 related to mean 3.7 μmol/L (95% CI 2.9 to 4.6) higher plasma ascorbic acid at year 10. In separate multiple-adjusted Cox regression models, the hazard ratio of hypertension per 19.6-μmol/L (1 SD) higher ascorbic acid was 0.85 (95% CI 0.79–0.92) and per 12-points higher diet score 0.86 (95% CI 0.79–0.94). These hazard ratios changed little with mutual adjustment of ascorbic acid and diet quality score for each other, or when adjusted for anthropometric variables, diabetes, and systolic blood pressure at year 10. Intake of dietary vitamin C and several food groups high in vitamin C content were inversely related to hypertension, whereas supplemental vitamin C was not. In conclusion, plasma ascorbic acid and the a priori diet quality score independently predict hypertension. This suggests that hypertension risk is reduced by improving overall diet quality and/or vitamin C status. The inverse association seen for dietary but not for supplemental vitamin C suggests that vitamin C status is preferably improved by eating foods rich in vitamin C, in addition to not smoking and other dietary habits that prevent ascorbic acid from depletion.     

Molecular Characterization of Staphylococcus aureus from Patients with Surgical Site Infections at Mulago Hospital in Kampala,Uganda

Background

The prevalence of Methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) is progressively increasing globally with significant regional variation. Understanding the Staphylococcus aureus lineages is crucial in controlling nosocomial infections. Recent studies on S. aureus in Uganda have revealed an escalating burden of MRSA. However, the S. aureus genotypes circulating among patients are not known. Here, we report S. aureus lineages circulating in patients with surgical site infections (SSI) at Mulago National hospital, Kampala, Uganda.

Methods

A cross-sectional study involving 314 patients with SSI at Mulago National Hospital was conducted from September 2011 to April 2012. Pus swabs from the patients’ SSI were processed using standard microbiological procedures. Methicillin sensitive Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA) and MRSA were identified using phenotypic tests and confirmed by PCR-detection of the nuc and mecA genes, respectively. SCCmec genotypes were determined among MRSA isolates using multiplex PCR. Furthermore, to determine lineages, spa sequence based-genotyping was performed on all S. aureus isolates.

Results

Of the 314 patients with SSI, S. aureus accounted for 20.4% (64/314), of which 37.5% (24/64) were MRSA. The predominant SCCmec types were type V (33.3%, 8/24) and type I (16.7%, 4/24). The predominant spa lineages were t645 (17.2%, 11/64) and t4353 (15.6%, 10/64), and these were found to be clonally circulating in all the surgical wards. On the other hand, lineages t064, t355, and t4609 were confined to the obstetrics and gynecology wards. A new spa type (t10277) was identified from MSSA isolate. On multivariate logistic regression analysis, cancer and inducible clindamycin resistance remained as independent predictors of MRSA-SSI.

Conclusion

SCCmec types I and V are the most prevalent MRSA mecA types from the patients’ SSI. The predominant spa lineages (t645 and t4353) are clonally circulating in all the surgical wards, calling for strengthening of infection control practices at Mulago National Hospital.     

Weight at Birth and Subsequent Fecundability: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

To examine the association between a woman''s birth weight and her subsequent fecundability.

Method

In this prospective cohort study, we included 2,773 Danish pregnancy planners enrolled in the internet-based cohort study “Snart-Gravid”, conducted during 2007–2012. Participants were 18–40 years old at study entry, attempting to conceive, and were not receiving fertility treatment. Data on weight at birth were obtained from the Danish Medical Birth Registry and categorized as <2,500 grams, 2,500–2,999 grams, 3,000–3,999 grams, and ≥4,000 grams. In additional analyses, birth weight was categorized according to z-scores for each gestational week at birth. Time-to-pregnancy measured in cycles was used to compute fecundability ratios (FR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI), using a proportional probabilities regression model.

Results

Relative to women with a birth weight of 3,000–3,999 grams, FRs adjusted for gestational age, year of birth, and maternal socio-demographic and medical factors were 0.99 (95% CI: 0.73;1.34), 0.99 (95% CI: 0.87;1.12), and 1.08 (95% CI: 0.94;1.24) for birth weight <2,500 grams, 2,500–2,999 grams, and ≥4,000 grams, respectively. Estimates remained unchanged after further adjustment for markers of the participant''s mother''s fecundability. We obtained similar results when we restricted to women who were born at term, and to women who had attempted to conceive for a maximum of 6 cycles before study entry. Results remained similar when we estimated FRs according to z-scores of birth weight.

Conclusion

Our results indicate that birth weight appears not to be an important determinant of fecundability.     

Prevalence and Characterization of Carbapenem-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Isolated from Mulago National Referral Hospital,Uganda

Introduction

Carbapenemases have increasingly been reported in enterobacteriaceae worldwide. Most carbapenemases are plasmid encoded hence resistance can easily spread. Carbapenem-resistant enterobacteriaceae are reported to cause mortality in up to 50% of patients who acquire bloodstream infections. We set out to determine the burden of carbapenem resistance as well as establish genes encoding for carbapenemases in enterobacteriaceae clinical isolates obtained from Mulago National Referral Hospital, Uganda.

Methods

This was a cross-sectional study with a total of 196 clinical isolates previously collected from pus swabs, urine, blood, sputum, tracheal aspirates, cervical swabs, endomentrial aspirates, rectal swabs, Vaginal swabs, ear swabs, products of conception, wound biopsy and amniotic fluid. All isolates were subjected to phenotypic carbapenemase screening using Boronic acid-based inhibition, Modified Hodge and EDTA double combined disk test. In addition, all the isolates were subjected to PCR assay to confirm presence of carbapenemase encoding genes.

Results

The study found carbapenemase prevalence of 22.4% (44/196) in the isolates using phenotypic tests, with the genotypic prevalence slightly higher at 28.6% (56/196). Over all, the most prevalent gene was blaVIM (21,10.7%), followed by blaOXA-48 (19, 9.7%), blaIMP (12, 6.1%), blaKPC (10, 5.1%) and blaNDM-1 (5, 2.6%). Among 56 isolates positive for 67 carbapenemase encoding genes, Klebsiella pneumonia was the species with the highest number (52.2%). Most 32/67(47.7%) of these resistance genes were in bacteria isolated from pus swabs.

Conclusion

There is a high prevalence of carbapenemases and carbapenem-resistance encoding genes among third generation cephalosporins resistant Enterobacteriaceae in Uganda, indicating a danger of limited treatment options in this setting in the near future.     

Reproductive Intentions and Outcomes among Women on Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural Uganda: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) may influence the biological, social and behavioral determinants of pregnancy in HIV-infected women. However, there are limited longitudinal data on the reproductive intentions and outcomes among women on ART in Africa.

Methodology /Principal Findings

Using a prospective cohort design, we analyzed trends in desire for children and predictors of pregnancy among a cohort of 733 HIV-infected women in rural Uganda who initiated ART between May 2003 and May 2004 and were followed up in their homes until June 2006. Women answered in-depth social and behavioral questionnaires administered every quarter in year 1 after initiating ART, and every 6 to 12 months thereafter. Use of family planning methods was assessed at 18 and 24 months after starting ART. We tested for non-constant pregnancy incidence by using a shape parameter test from the Weibull distribution. We modeled repeated measurements of all variables related to the women''s desire for children over time using a generalized estimating equation (GEE) extension to the logistic regression model. Risk factors for pregnancy were examined using Cox proportional hazards model. 711 women eligible for the study were followed-up for a median time of 2.4 years after starting ART. During this time, less than 7% of women reported wanting more children at any time point yet 120 (16.9%) women experienced 140 pregnancies and pregnancy incidence increased from 3.46 per 100 women-years (WY) in the first quarter to 9.5 per 100 WY at 24 months (p<0.0001). This was paralleled by an increase in the proportion of women reporting sexual activity in the past 3 months, from 24.4% at baseline to 32.5% over 24 months of follow-up (p = 0.001). Only 14% of women used permanent or semi-permanent family planning methods by their second year on ART. In the multivariate model, younger age (HR = 2.71 per 10-year decrease, 95% CI: 2.95–3.78), having a BMI>18.5 (HR = 1.09, CI: 1.01–1.18) and not having used condoms consistently in the last 3 months (HR = 1.79, CI: 1.02–3.13) were independently associated with pregnancy.

Conclusion/Significance

Women on ART and their partners should be consistently counseled on the effects of ART in restoring fertility, and offered regularly free and comprehensive family planning services as part of their standard package of care.     

Effect of HIV-1 Subtypes on Disease Progression in Rural Uganda: A Prospective Clinical Cohort Study

Objective

We examined the association of HIV-1 subtypes with disease progression based on three viral gene regions.

Design

A prospective HIV-1 clinical cohort study in rural Uganda.

Methods

Partial gag, env and pol genes were sequenced. Cox proportional hazard regression modelling was used to estimate adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) of progression to: CD4≤250, AIDS onset and death, adjusted for sex, age and CD4 count at enrolment.

Results

Between 1990 and 2010, 292 incident cases were subtyped: 25% had subtype A, 45% had D, 26% had A/D recombinants, 1% had C and 4% were other recombinant forms. Of the 278 incident cases included in the disease progression analysis, 62% progressed to CD4≤250, 32% to AIDS, and 34% died with a higher proportion being among subtype D cases. The proportions of individuals progressing to the three endpoints were significantly higher among individuals infected with subtype D. Throughout the study period, individuals infected with subtype D progressed faster to CD4≤250, adjusted HR (aHR), (95% CI) = 1.72 (1.16–2.54), but this was mainly due to events in the period before antiretroviral therapy (ART) introduction, when individuals infected with subtype D significantly progressed faster to CD4≤250 than subtype A cases; aHR (95% CI) = 1.78 (1.01–3.14).

Conclusions

In this population, HIV-1 subtype D was the most prevalent and was associated with faster HIV-1 disease progression than subtype A. Further studies are needed to examine the effect of HIV-1 subtypes on disease progression in the ART period and their effect on the virological and immunological ART outcomes.     

ICU-Onset Clostridium difficile Infection in a University Hospital in China: A Prospective Cohort Study

A prospective study was conducted to investigate the incidence, clinical profiles and outcome of ICU-onset CDI in a 50-bed medical ICU at a university hospital in China. Stools were collected from patients who developed ICU-onset diarrhea and was screened for tcdA (toxin A gene) and tcdB (toxin B gene) by PCR. CDI cases were compared with the ICU-onset non-CDI diarrhea cases for demographics, comorbidities, potential risk factors, major laboratory findings and outcomes. Stool samples from CDI cases were subjected to C. difficile culture and C. difficile isolates were screened for tcdA, tcdB and the binary toxin genes (cdtA and cdtB) using multiplex PCR. Strain typing of toxigenic C. difficile isolates was performed using multilocus sequence typing. There were 1,277 patients in the ICU during the study period and 124 (9.7%) developed ICU-onset diarrhea, of which 31 patients had CDI. The incidence of ICU-onset CDI was 25.2 cases per 10,000 ICU days. ICU-onset CDI cases had similar features with ICU-onset non-CDI diarrhea cases including the use of proton pump inhibitors and antibacterial agents. The crude mortality rate of ICU-onset CDI was 22.6%, but the attributable mortality rate of ICU-onset CDI was only 3.2% here. Toxigenic C. difficile isolates were recovered from 28 out of the 31 patients with CDI. cdtA and cdtB were found in two strains. Seventeen STs including 11 new STs were identified. All of the 11 new STs were single-locus variants of known STs and the 17 STs identified here could be clustered into 3 clades. The incidence of ICU-onset CDI here is similar to those in Europe and North America, suggesting that CDI is likely to be a common problem in China. Toxigenic C. difficile here belonged to a variety of STs, which may represent a significant clonal expansion rather than the true clonal diversity.     

Consequences of Gestational Diabetes in an Urban Hospital in Viet Nam: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is increasing and is a risk for type 2 diabetes. Evidence supporting screening comes mostly from high-income countries. We aimed to determine prevalence and outcomes in urban Viet Nam. We compared the proposed International Association of the Diabetes and Pregnancy Study Groups (IADPSG) criterion, requiring one positive value on the 75-g glucose tolerance test, to the 2010 American Diabetes Association (ADA) criterion, requiring two positive values.

Methods and Findings

We conducted a prospective cohort study in Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam. Study participants were 2,772 women undergoing routine prenatal care who underwent a 75-g glucose tolerance test and interview around 28 (range 24–32) wk. GDM diagnosed by the ADA criterion was treated by local protocol. Women with GDM by the IADPSG criterion but not the ADA criterion were termed “borderline” and received standard care. 2,702 women (97.5% of cohort) were followed until discharge after delivery. GDM was diagnosed in 164 participants (6.1%) by the ADA criterion, 550 (20.3%) by the IADPSG criterion. Mean body mass index was 20.45 kg/m² in women with out GDM, 21.10 in women with borderline GDM, and 21.81 in women with GDM, p<0.001. Women with GDM and borderline GDM were more likely to deliver preterm, with adjusted odds ratios (aORs) of 1.49 (95% CI 1.16–1.91) and 1.52 (1.03–2.24), respectively. They were more likely to have clinical neonatal hypoglycaemia, aORs of 4.94 (3.41–7.14) and 3.34 (1.41–7.89), respectively. For large for gestational age, the aORs were 1.16 (0.93–1.45) and 1.31 (0.96–1.79), respectively. There was no significant difference in large for gestational age, death, severe birth trauma, or maternal morbidity between the groups. Women with GDM underwent more labour inductions, aOR 1.51 (1.08–2.11).

Conclusions

Choice of criterion greatly affects GDM prevalence in Viet Nam. Women with GDM by the IADPSG criterion were at risk of preterm delivery and neonatal hypoglycaemia, although this criterion resulted in 20% of pregnant women being positive for GDM. The ability to cope with such a large number of cases and prevent associated adverse outcomes needs to be demonstrated before recommending widespread screening. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary.     

Sleep-Disordered Breathing and Mortality: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Sleep-disordered breathing is a common condition associated with adverse health outcomes including hypertension and cardiovascular disease. The overall objective of this study was to determine whether sleep-disordered breathing and its sequelae of intermittent hypoxemia and recurrent arousals are associated with mortality in a community sample of adults aged 40 years or older.

Methods and Findings

We prospectively examined whether sleep-disordered breathing was associated with an increased risk of death from any cause in 6,441 men and women participating in the Sleep Heart Health Study. Sleep-disordered breathing was assessed with the apnea–hypopnea index (AHI) based on an in-home polysomnogram. Survival analysis and proportional hazards regression models were used to calculate hazard ratios for mortality after adjusting for age, sex, race, smoking status, body mass index, and prevalent medical conditions. The average follow-up period for the cohort was 8.2 y during which 1,047 participants (587 men and 460 women) died. Compared to those without sleep-disordered breathing (AHI: <5 events/h), the fully adjusted hazard ratios for all-cause mortality in those with mild (AHI: 5.0–14.9 events/h), moderate (AHI: 15.0–29.9 events/h), and severe (AHI: ≥30.0 events/h) sleep-disordered breathing were 0.93 (95% CI: 0.80–1.08), 1.17 (95% CI: 0.97–1.42), and 1.46 (95% CI: 1.14–1.86), respectively. Stratified analyses by sex and age showed that the increased risk of death associated with severe sleep-disordered breathing was statistically significant in men aged 40–70 y (hazard ratio: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.31–3.33). Measures of sleep-related intermittent hypoxemia, but not sleep fragmentation, were independently associated with all-cause mortality. Coronary artery disease–related mortality associated with sleep-disordered breathing showed a pattern of association similar to all-cause mortality.

Conclusions

Sleep-disordered breathing is associated with all-cause mortality and specifically that due to coronary artery disease, particularly in men aged 40–70 y with severe sleep-disordered breathing. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Pre-Eclampsia Increases the Risk of Postpartum Haemorrhage: A Nationwide Cohort Study in The Netherlands

Background

Postpartum haemorrhage is a leading cause of maternal morbidity and mortality worldwide. Identifying risk indicators for postpartum haemorrhage is crucial to predict this life threatening condition. Another major contributor to maternal morbidity and mortality is pre-eclampsia. Previous studies show conflicting results in the association between pre-eclampsia and postpartum haemorrhage. The primary objective of this study was to investigate the association between pre-eclampsia and postpartum haemorrhage. Our secondary objective was to identify other risk indicators for postpartum haemorrhage in the Netherlands.

Methods

A nationwide cohort was used, containing prospectively collected data of women giving birth after 19 completed weeks of gestation from January 2000 until January 2008 (n =  1 457 576). Data were extracted from the Netherlands Perinatal Registry, covering 96% of all deliveries in the Netherlands. The main outcome measure, postpartum haemorrhage, was defined as blood loss of ≥1000 ml in the 24 hours following delivery. The association between pre-eclampsia and postpartum haemorrhage was investigated with uni- and multivariable logistic regression analyses.

Results

Overall prevalence of postpartum haemorrhage was 4.3% and of pre-eclampsia 2.2%. From the 31 560 women with pre-eclampsia 2 347 (7.4%) developed postpartum haemorrhage, compared to 60 517 (4.2%) from the 1 426 016 women without pre-eclampsia (odds ratio 1.81; 95% CI 1.74 to 1.89). Risk of postpartum haemorrhage in women with pre-eclampsia remained increased after adjusting for confounders (adjusted odds ratio 1.53; 95% CI 1.46 to 1.60).

Conclusion

Women with pre-eclampsia have a 1.53 fold increased risk for postpartum haemorrhage. Clinicians should be aware of this and use this knowledge in the management of pre-eclampsia and the third stage of labour in order to reach the fifth Millenium Developmental Goal of reducing maternal mortality ratios with 75% by 2015.     

Micronutrient Levels and Supplement Intake in Pregnancy after Bariatric Surgery: A Prospective Cohort Study

Background

Studies report frequent micronutrient deficiencies after bariatric surgery, but less is known about micronutrient levels of pregnant women after bariatric surgery.

Objective

To prospectively evaluate micronutrient levels and supplement intake in pregnancy following bariatric surgery.

Design

A multicenter prospective cohort study including women with restrictive or malabsorptive types of bariatric surgery. Nutritional deficiencies, together with supplement intake, were screened during pregnancy.

Results

The total population included 18 women in the restrictive and 31 in the malabsorptive group. Most micronutrients were depleted and declined significantly during pregnancy. The proportion of women with low vitamin A and B-1 levels increased to respectively 58 and 17% at delivery (P = 0.005 and 0.002). The proportion of women with vitamin D deficiency decreased from 14% at trimester 1 to 6% at delivery (P = 0.030). Mild anemia was found in respectively 22 and 40% of the women at trimester 1 and delivery. In the first trimester, most women took a multivitamin (57.1%). In the second and third trimester, the majority took additional supplements (69.4 and 73.5%). No associations were found between supplement intake and micronutrient deficiencies.

Conclusion

Pregnant women with bariatric surgery show frequent low micronutrient levels. Supplementation partially normalizes low levels of micronutrients.     

Candiduria in Hospital Patients: A Study Prospective

Tinea capitis is rare in adults. We report a case of adult tinea capitis due to Trichophyton violaceum in China. The female patient was immunosuppressed with prednisone due to the underlying disease of vulgaris pemphigus and was treated successfully with terbinafine. We also reviewed published cases of adult tinea capitis in China and compared these data with the characteristics of published cases in other regions in the world.     

All-Cause and Cause-Specific Mortality after Long-Term Sickness Absence for Psychiatric Disorders: A Prospective Cohort Study

Objective

The aim was to examine if long-term psychiatric sickness absence was associated with all-cause and diagnosis-specific (cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer and suicide) mortality for the period 1990–2007. An additional aim was to examine these associations for psychiatric sickness absence in 1990 and 2000, with follow-up on mortality during 1991–1997 and 2001–2007, separately.

Methods

Employees within municipalities and county councils, 244,990 individuals in 1990 and 764,137 individuals in 2000, were followed up to 2007 through register linkages. Analyses were conducted with flexible parametric survival models comparing sickness absentees due to psychiatric diagnoses (>90 days) with those not receiving sick leave benefit.

Results

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders was associated with an increased risk of mortality due to all causes; CVD; cancer (smoking and non-smoking related); and suicide during the period 1990–2007. After full adjustment for socio-demographic covariates and previous inpatient care due to somatic and psychiatric diagnoses, these associations remained significant for all-cause mortality (Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence interval (CI)): HR 1.56, 95% CI 1.3–1.8; CVD: HR 1.35, 95% CI 1.0–1.9, and suicide: HR 3.84, 95% CI 2.4–6.1. For both cohorts 1990 and 2000 estimates point in the same direction. For the time-period 2000–2007, we found increased risks of mortality in the fully adjusted model due to all causes: HR 1.47, 95% CI 1.2–1.7; CVD: HR 1.83, 95% CI 1.2–2.7; overall cancer: HR 1.33, 95% CI 1.0–1.7; and suicide: HR 2.15, 95% CI 1.3–3.7.

Conclusion

Long-term sickness absence for psychiatric disorders predicted premature mortality from all-causes, cardiovascular disease, cancer, and suicide.     

Inter-Hospital Variability of Postoperative Pain after Tonsillectomy: Prospective Registry-Based Multicentre Cohort Study

ObjectivesAlthough tonsillectomy is one of the most frequent and painful surgeries, the association between baseline and process parameters and postoperative pain are not fully understood.MethodsA multicentre prospective cohort study using a web-based registry enrolled 1,527 women and 1,008 men aged 4 to 85 years from 52 German hospitals between 2006 and 2015. Maximal pain (MP) score the first day after surgery on a numeric rating scale (NRS) from 0 (no pain) to 10 (MP) was the main outcome parameter.ResultsThe mean maximal pain score was 5.8±2.2 (median 6). Multivariable analysis revealed that female gender (Odds ratio [OR] = 1.33; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.12 to 1.56; p = 0.001), age <20 years (OR = 1.56; CI = 1.27 to 1.91; p<0.0001), no pain counselling (OR = 1.78; CI = 1.370 to 2.316; p<0.001), chronic pain (OR = 1.34; CI = 1.107 to 1.64; p = 0.004), and receiving opioids in recovery room (OR = 1.89; CI = 1.55 to 2.325; p<0.001) or on ward (OR = 1.79; CI = 1.42 to 2.27; p<0.001) were independently associated with higher experienced maximal postoperative pain (greater the median of 6). The effect of age on pain was not linear. Maximal pain increased in underage patients to a peak at the age of 18 to 20 years. From the age of ≥20 years on, maximal pain after tonsillectomy continuously decreased. Even after adjustment to all statistically important baseline and process parameters, there was substantial variability of maximal pain between hospitals with a heterogeneity variance of 0.31.ConclusionMany patients seem to receive insufficient or ineffective analgesia after tonsillectomy. Further research should address if populations at risk of higher postoperative pain such as females, younger patients or those with preexisting pain might profit from a special pain management protocol. Beyond classical demographical and process parameters the large variability between different hospitals is striking and indicates the existence of other unknown factors influencing postoperative pain after tonsillectomy.     

Minimum Incidence of Adult Invasive Pneumococcal Disease in Blantyre,Malawi an Urban African Setting: A Hospital Based Prospective Cohort Study

Invasive pneumococcal disease causes substantial morbidity and mortality in Africa. Evaluating population level indirect impact on adult disease of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) programmes in infants requires baseline population incidence rates but these are often lacking in areas with limited disease surveillance. We used hospital based blood culture and cerebrospinal fluid surveillance to calculate minimal incidence of invasive pneumococcal disease in the adult (≥15 years old) population of Blantyre, a rapidly growing urban centre in southern Malawi, in the period preceding vaccine introduction. Invasive pneumococcal disease incidence in Blantyre district was high, mean 58.1 (95% confidence interval (CI): 53.7, 62.7) per 100,000 person years and peaking among 35 to 40 year olds at 108.8 (95%CI: 89.0, 131.7) mirroring the population age prevalence of HIV infection. For pneumococcal bacteraemia in urban Blantyre, mean incidence was 60.6 (95% CI: 55.2, 66.5) per 100,000 person years, peaking among 35 to 40 year olds at 114.8 (95%CI: 90.3, 143.9). We suspected that our surveillance may under-ascertain the true burden of disease, so we used location data from bacteraemic subjects and projected population estimates to calculate local sub-district incidence, then examined the impact of community level socio-demographic covariates as possible predictors of local sub-district incidence of pneumococcal and non-pneumococcal pathogenic bacteraemia. Geographic heterogeneity in incidence was marked with localised hotspots but ward level covariates apart from prison were not associated with pneumococcal bacteraemia incidence. Modelling suggests that the current sentinel surveillance system under-ascertains the true burden of disease. We outline a number of challenges to surveillance for pneumococcal disease in our low-resource setting. Subsequent surveillance in the vaccine era will have to account for geographic heterogeneity when evaluating population level indirect impact of PCV13 introduction to the childhood immunisation program.     

Obesity,Metabolic Syndrome and Risk of Atrial Fibrillation: A Swedish,Prospective Cohort Study

AimWe aimed to investigate whether different measures of obesity could similarly predict atrial fibrillation, and whether the atrial fibrillation risk associated with obesity is dependent on presence of metabolic syndrome.ResultsDuring a mean follow-up of 13.6 years, 285 incident atrial fibrillation cases were recorded. One standard deviation increment of each obesity measure was associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk as: body mass index 1.25 (1.12 – 1.40), waist circumference 1.35 (1.19 – 1.54) and sagittal abdominal diameter 1.28 (1.14 – 1.44). Compared to normal weight subjects without metabolic syndrome, increased atrial fibrillation risk was noted for overweight subjects with metabolic syndrome, 1.67 (1.16 – 2.41), obese subjects without metabolic syndrome, 1.75 (1.11 – 2.74) and obese subjects with metabolic syndrome, 1.92 (1.34 – 2.74). Compared to subjects with normal waist circumference without metabolic syndrome, subjects with elevated waist circumference and metabolic syndrome suffered increased atrial fibrillation risk, 2.03 (1.44 – 2.87).ConclusionsBody mass index, waist circumference and sagittal abdominal diameter could similarly predict atrial fibrillation. Obesity was associated with an increased atrial fibrillation risk regardless of metabolic syndrome, whereas overweight and elevated waist circumference was associated with increased atrial fibrillation risk only if metabolic syndrome was present.     

Risk Factors for Hospital Readmission after Radical Gastrectomy for Gastric Cancer: A Prospective Study

Background

Hospital readmission is gathering increasing attention as a measure of health care quality and a potential cost-saving target. The purpose of this prospective study was to determine risk factors for readmission within 30 days of discharge after gastrectomy for patients with gastric cancer.

Methods

We conducted a prospective study of patients undergoing radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer from October 2013 to November 2014 in our institution. The incidence, cause and risk factors for 30-day readmission were determined.

Results

A total of 376 patients were included in our analysis without loss in follow-up. The 30-day readmission rate after radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer was 7.2% (27of 376). The most common cause for readmission included gastrointestinal complications and postoperative infections. On the basis of multivariate logistic regression analysis, preoperative nutritional risk screening 2002 score ≥ 3 was an independent risk factor for 30-day readmission. Factors not associated with a higher readmission rate included a history of a major postoperative complication during the index hospitalization, prolonged primary length of hospital stay after surgery, a history of previous abdominal surgery, advanced age, body mass index, pre-existing cardiopulmonary comorbidities, American Society of Anesthesiology grade, type of resection, extent of node dissection and discharge disposition.

Conclusions

Readmission within 30 days of discharge after radical gastrectomy for gastric cancer is common. Patients with nutritional risk preoperatively are at high risk for 30-day readmission. Preoperative optimization of nutritional status of patients at nutritional risk may effectively decrease readmission rates.