Sugar Sweetened Beverages and Weight Gain over 4 Years in a Thai National Cohort – A Prospective Analysis

Introduction

Sugar sweetened beverages (SSBs) are implicated in the rising prevalence of obesity and diet-related chronic diseases worldwide. However, little is known about their contribution to weight gain in Asian populations. This study aimed to investigate weight change associated with SSB consumption between 2005 and 2009 in a large national cohort of Thai university students.

Methods

Questionnaire data were collected from a large Thai cohort (the Thai Health-Risk Transition: a National Cohort Study). The analysis was based on responses from 59 283 of the 60 569 (98%) cohort members who had valid SSB consumption and weight variables in 2005 and 2009. The relationship between SSB consumption in 2005 and self-reported weight change was analysed using multiple linear regression models controlled for socio-demographic, activity and (non-validated) dietary factors shown to influence weight.

Results

Higher frequency of SSB consumption in 2005 was significantly associated with greater weight gain between 2005 and 2009 in all age groups and in both sexes (p<0.0001); persons who consumed SSBs at least once a day in 2005 gained 0.5 kg more than those who consumed SSBs less than once a month. The estimated weight gain for the average person in the sample was 1.9 kg (95% C I 1.95–1.96). The difference in weight gain between those who increased their consumption frequency (<once a month to > once per day) between 2005 and 2009 compared to those who maintained it was 0.3 kgs, while persons who reduced their consumption frequency (once a day to > once a month) gained 0.2 kgs less than those whose consumption remained unchanged.

Conclusion

SSB consumption is independently associated with weight gain in the Thai population. Research and health promotion in Thailand and other economically transitioning countries should focus on reducing their contribution to population weight gain and to diet-related chronic diseases.     

Epidemiology, quality and reporting characteristics of systematic reviews of traditional Chinese medicine interventions published in Chinese journals

Background

Systematic reviews (SRs) of TCM have become increasingly popular in China and have been published in large numbers. This review provides the first examination of epidemiological characteristics of these SRs as well as compliance with the PRISMA and AMSTAR guidelines.

Objectives

To examine epidemiological and reporting characteristics as well as methodological quality of SRs of TCM published in Chinese journals.

Methods

Four Chinese databases were searched (CBM, CSJD, CJFD and Wanfang Database) for SRs of TCM, from inception through Dec 2009. Data were extracted into Excel spreadsheets. The PRISMA and AMSTAR checklists were used to assess reporting characteristics and methodological quality, respectively.

Results

A total of 369 SRs were identified, most (97.6%) of which used the terms systematic review or meta-analysis in the title. None of the reviews had been updated. Half (49.8%) were written by clinicians and nearly half (47.7%) were reported in specialty journals. The impact factors of 45.8% of the journals published in were zero. The most commonly treated conditions were diseases of the circulatory and digestive disease. Funding sources were not reported for any reviews. Most (68.8%) reported information about quality assessment, while less than half (43.6%) reported assessing for publication bias. Statistical mistakes appeared in one-third (29.3%) of reviews and most (91.9%) did not report on conflict of interest.

Conclusions

While many SRs of TCM interventions have been published in Chinese journals, the quality of these reviews is troubling. As a potential key source of information for clinicians and researchers, not only were many of these reviews incomplete, some contained mistakes or were misleading. Focusing on improving the quality of SRs of TCM, rather than continuing to publish them in great quantity, is urgently needed in order to increase the value of these studies.     

Risk of bias tool in systematic reviews/meta-analyses of acupuncture in Chinese journals

Background

Use of a risk of bias (ROB) tool has been encouraged and advocated to reviewers writing systematic reviews (SRs) and meta-analyses (MAs). Selective outcome reporting and other sources of bias are included in the Cochrane ROB tool. It is important to know how this specific tool for assessing ROB has been applied since its release. Our objectives were to evaluate whether and to what extent the new Cochrane ROB tool has been used in Chinese journal papers of acupuncture.

Methods

We searched CBM, TCM database, CJFD, CSJD, and the Wanfang Database from inception to March 2011. Two reviewers independently selected SRs that primarily focused on acupuncture and moxibustion, from which the data was extracted and analyzed.

Results

A total of 836 SRs were identified from the search, of which, 105 were included and four are awaiting assessment. Thirty-six of the 105 SRs were published before release of the Cochrane ROB tool (up to 2009). Most used the Cochrane Handbook 4.2 or Jadad''s scale for risk or quality assessment. From 2009 to March 2011 69 SRs were identified. While “risk of bias” was reported for approximately two-thirds of SRs, only two SRs mentioned use of a “risk of bias tool” in their assessment. Only 5.8% (4/69) of reviews reported information on all six domains which are involved in the ROB tool. A risk of bias graph/summary figure was provided in 2.9% (2/69) of reviews. Most SRs gave information about sequence generation, allocation concealment, blindness, and incomplete outcome data, however, few reviews (5.8%; 4/69) described selective reporting or other potential sources of bias.

Conclusions

The Cochrane “risk of bias” tool has not been used in all SRs/MAs of acupuncture published in Chinese Journals after 2008. When the ROB tool was used, reporting of relevant information was often incomplete.     

Impact of Inclusion of Industry Trial Results Registries as an Information Source for Systematic Reviews

Background

Clinical trial results registries may contain relevant unpublished information. Our main aim was to investigate the potential impact of the inclusion of reports from industry results registries on systematic reviews (SRs).

Methods

We identified a sample of 150 eligible SRs in PubMed via backward selection. Eligible SRs investigated randomized controlled trials of drugs and included at least 2 bibliographic databases (original search date: 11/2009). We checked whether results registries of manufacturers and/or industry associations had also been searched. If not, we searched these registries for additional trials not considered in the SRs, as well as for additional data on trials already considered. We reanalysed the primary outcome and harm outcomes reported in the SRs and determined whether results had changed. A “change” was defined as either a new relevant result or a change in the statistical significance of an existing result. We performed a search update in 8/2013 and identified a sample of 20 eligible SRs to determine whether mandatory results registration from 9/2008 onwards in the public trial and results registry ClinicalTrials.gov had led to its inclusion as a standard information source in SRs, and whether the inclusion rate of industry results registries had changed.

Results

133 of the 150 SRs (89%) in the original analysis did not search industry results registries. For 23 (17%) of these SRs we found 25 additional trials and additional data on 31 trials already included in the SRs. This additional information was found for more than twice as many SRs of drugs approved from 2000 as approved beforehand. The inclusion of the additional trials and data yielded changes in existing results or the addition of new results for 6 of the 23 SRs. Of the 20 SRs retrieved in the search update, 8 considered ClinicalTrials.gov or a meta-registry linking to ClinicalTrials.gov, and 1 considered an industry results registry.

Conclusion

The inclusion of industry and public results registries as an information source in SRs is still insufficient and may result in publication and outcome reporting bias. In addition to an essential search in ClinicalTrials.gov, authors of SRs should consider searching industry results registries.     

A Comparison of Statistical Methods for Identifying Out-of-Date Systematic Reviews

Background

Systematic reviews (SRs) can provide accurate and reliable evidence, typically about the effectiveness of health interventions. Evidence is dynamic, and if SRs are out-of-date this information may not be useful; it may even be harmful. This study aimed to compare five statistical methods to identify out-of-date SRs.

Methods

A retrospective cohort of SRs registered in the Cochrane Pregnancy and Childbirth Group (CPCG), published between 2008 and 2010, were considered for inclusion. For each eligible CPCG review, data were extracted and “3-years previous” meta-analyses were assessed for the need to update, given the data from the most recent 3 years. Each of the five statistical methods was used, with random effects analyses throughout the study.

Results

Eighty reviews were included in this study; most were in the area of induction of labour. The numbers of reviews identified as being out-of-date using the Ottawa, recursive cumulative meta-analysis (CMA), and Barrowman methods were 34, 7, and 7 respectively. No reviews were identified as being out-of-date using the simulation-based power method, or the CMA for sufficiency and stability method. The overall agreement among the three discriminating statistical methods was slight (Kappa = 0.14; 95% CI 0.05 to 0.23). The recursive cumulative meta-analysis, Ottawa, and Barrowman methods were practical according to the study criteria.

Conclusion

Our study shows that three practical statistical methods could be applied to examine the need to update SRs.     

Reporting Quality of Systematic Reviews/Meta-Analyses of Acupuncture

Background

The QUOROM and PRISMA statements were published in 1999 and 2009, respectively, to improve the consistency of reporting systematic reviews (SRs)/meta-analyses (MAs) of clinical trials. However, not all SRs/MAs adhere completely to these important standards. In particular, it is not clear how well SRs/MAs of acupuncture studies adhere to reporting standards and which reporting criteria are generally ignored in these analyses.

Objectives

To evaluate reporting quality in SRs/MAs of acupuncture studies.

Methods

We performed a literature search for studies published prior to 2014 using the following public archives: PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews (CDSR), the Chinese Biomedical Literature Database (CBM), the Traditional Chinese Medicine (TCM) database, the Chinese Journal Full-text Database (CJFD), the Chinese Scientific Journal Full-text Database (CSJD), and the Wanfang database. Data were extracted into pre-prepared Excel data-extraction forms. Reporting quality was assessed based on the PRISMA checklist (27 items).

Results

Of 476 appropriate SRs/MAs identified in our search, 203, 227, and 46 were published in Chinese journals, international journals, and the Cochrane Database, respectively. In 476 SRs/MAs, only 3 reported the information completely. By contrast, approximately 4.93% (1/203), 8.81% (2/227) and 0.00% (0/46) SRs/Mas reported less than 10 items in Chinese journals, international journals and CDSR, respectively. In general, the least frequently reported items (reported≤50%) in SRs/MAs were “protocol and registration”, “risk of bias across studies”, and “additional analyses” in both methods and results sections.

Conclusions

SRs/MAs of acupuncture studies have not comprehensively reported information recommended in the PRISMA statement. Our study underscores that, in addition to focusing on careful study design and performance, attention should be paid to comprehensive reporting standards in SRs/MAs on acupuncture studies.     

The Assessment of the Quality of Reporting of Systematic Reviews/Meta-Analyses in Diagnostic Tests Published by Authors in China

Background

The quality of reporting in systematic reviews (SRs)/meta-analyses (MAs) of diagnostic tests published by authors in China has not been evaluated. The aims of present study are to evaluate the quality of reporting in diagnostic SRs/MAs using the PRISMA statement and determine the changes in the quality of reporting over time.

Methods

According to the inclusion and exclusion criteria, we searched five databases including Chinese Biomedical Literature Database, PubMed, EMBASE, the Cochrane Library, and Web of knowledge, to identify SRs/MAs on diagnostic tests. The searches were conducted on July 14, 2012 and the cut off for inclusion of the SRs/MAs was December 31^st 2011. The PRISMA statement was used to assess the quality of reporting. Analysis was performed using Excel 2003, RevMan 5.

Results

A total of 312 studies were included. Fifteen diseases systems were covered. According to the PRISMA checklist, there had been serious reporting flaws in following items: structured summary (item 2, 22.4%), objectives (item 4, 18.9%), protocol and registration (item 5, 2.6%), risk of bias across studies (item 15, 26.3%), funding (item 27, 28.8%). The subgroup analysis showed that there had been some statistically significant improvement in total compliance for 9 PRISMA items after the PRISMA was released, 6 items were statistically improved regarding funded articles, 3 items were statistically improved for CSCD articles, and there was a statistically significant increase in the proportion of reviews reporting on 22 items for SCI articles (P<0.050).

Conclusion

The numbers of diagnostic SRs/MAs is increasing annually. The quality of reporting has measurably been improved over the previous years. Unfortunately, there are still many deficiencies in the reporting including protocol and registration, search, risk of bias across studies, and funding. Future Chinese reviewers should address issues on these aspects.     

Relationship between Sponsorship and Failure Rate of Dental Implants: A Systematic Approach

Background

The number of dental implant treatments increases annually. Dental implants are manufactured by competing companies. Systematic reviews and meta-analysis have shown a clear association between pharmaceutical industry funding of clinical trials and pro-industry results. So far, the impact of industry sponsorship on the outcomes and conclusions of dental implant clinical trials has never been explored. The aim of the present study was to examine financial sponsorship of dental implant trials, and to evaluate whether research funding sources may affect the annual failure rate.

Methods and Findings

A systematic approach was used to identify systematic reviews published between January 1993 and December 2008 that specifically deal with the length of survival of dental implants. Primary articles were extracted from these reviews. The failure rate of the dental implants included in the trials was calculated. Data on publication year, Impact Factor, prosthetic design, periodontal status reporting, number of dental implants included in the trials, methodological quality of the studies, presence of a statistical advisor, and financial sponsorship were extracted by two independent reviewers (kappa  = 0.90; CI_95% [0.77–1.00]). Univariate quasi-Poisson regression models and multivariate analysis were used to identify variables that were significantly associated with failure rates. Five systematic reviews were identified from which 41 analyzable trials were extracted. The mean annual failure rate estimate was 1.09%.(CI_95% [0.84–1.42]). The funding source was not reported in 63% of the trials (26/41). Sixty-six percent of the trials were considered as having a risk of bias (27/41). Given study age, both industry associated (OR = 0.21; CI_95% [0.12–0.38]) and unknown funding source trials (OR = 0.33; (CI_95% [0.21–0.51]) had a lower annual failure rates compared with non-industry associated trials. A conflict of interest statement was disclosed in 2 trials.

Conclusions

When controlling for other factors, the probability of annual failure for industry associated trials is significantly lower compared with non-industry associated trials. This bias may have significant implications on tooth extraction decision making, research on tooth preservation, and governmental health care policies.     

Averting Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes in India through Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Taxation: An Economic-Epidemiologic Modeling Study

Background

Taxing sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) has been proposed in high-income countries to reduce obesity and type 2 diabetes. We sought to estimate the potential health effects of such a fiscal strategy in the middle-income country of India, where there is heterogeneity in SSB consumption, patterns of substitution between SSBs and other beverages after tax increases, and vast differences in chronic disease risk within the population.

Methods and Findings

Using consumption and price variations data from a nationally representative survey of 100,855 Indian households, we first calculated how changes in SSB price alter per capita consumption of SSBs and substitution with other beverages. We then incorporated SSB sales trends, body mass index (BMI), and diabetes incidence data stratified by age, sex, income, and urban/rural residence into a validated microsimulation of caloric consumption, glycemic load, overweight/obesity prevalence, and type 2 diabetes incidence among Indian subpopulations facing a 20% SSB excise tax. The 20% SSB tax was anticipated to reduce overweight and obesity prevalence by 3.0% (95% CI 1.6%–5.9%) and type 2 diabetes incidence by 1.6% (95% CI 1.2%–1.9%) among various Indian subpopulations over the period 2014–2023, if SSB consumption continued to increase linearly in accordance with secular trends. However, acceleration in SSB consumption trends consistent with industry marketing models would be expected to increase the impact efficacy of taxation, averting 4.2% of prevalent overweight/obesity (95% CI 2.5–10.0%) and 2.5% (95% CI 1.0–2.8%) of incident type 2 diabetes from 2014–2023. Given current consumption and BMI distributions, our results suggest the largest relative effect would be expected among young rural men, refuting our a priori hypothesis that urban populations would be isolated beneficiaries of SSB taxation. Key limitations of this estimation approach include the assumption that consumer expenditure behavior from prior years, captured in price elasticities, will reflect future behavior among consumers, and potential underreporting of consumption in dietary recall data used to inform our calculations.

Conclusion

Sustained SSB taxation at a high tax rate could mitigate rising obesity and type 2 diabetes in India among both urban and rural subpopulations. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Pregnancy Weight Gain and Childhood Body Weight: A Within-Family Comparison

Background

Excessive pregnancy weight gain is associated with obesity in the offspring, but this relationship may be confounded by genetic and other shared influences. We aimed to examine the association of pregnancy weight gain with body mass index (BMI) in the offspring, using a within-family design to minimize confounding.

Methods and Findings

In this population-based cohort study, we matched records of all live births in Arkansas with state-mandated data on childhood BMI collected in public schools (from August 18, 2003 to June 2, 2011). The cohort included 42,133 women who had more than one singleton pregnancy and their 91,045 offspring. We examined how differences in weight gain that occurred during two or more pregnancies for each woman predicted her children''s BMI and odds ratio (OR) of being overweight or obese (BMI≥85th percentile) at a mean age of 11.9 years, using a within-family design. For every additional kg of pregnancy weight gain, childhood BMI increased by 0.0220 (95% CI 0.0134–0.0306, p<0.0001) and the OR of overweight/obesity increased by 1.007 (CI 1.003–1.012, p = 0.0008). Variations in pregnancy weight gain accounted for a 0.43 kg/m² difference in childhood BMI. After adjustment for birth weight, the association of pregnancy weight gain with childhood BMI was attenuated but remained statistically significant (0.0143 kg/m² per kg of pregnancy weight gain, CI 0.0057–0.0229, p = 0.0007).

Conclusions

High pregnancy weight gain is associated with increased body weight of the offspring in childhood, and this effect is only partially mediated through higher birth weight. Translation of these findings to public health obesity prevention requires additional study. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Non-disruptive tactics of suppression are superior in countering terrorism, insurgency, and financial panics

Background

Suppressing damaging aggregate behaviors such as insurgency, terrorism, and financial panics are important tasks of the state. Each outcome of these aggregate behaviors is an emergent property of a system in which each individual''s action depends on a subset of others'' actions, given by each individual''s network of interactions. Yet there are few explicit comparisons of strategies for suppression, and none that fully incorporate the interdependence of individual behavior.

Methods and Findings

Here I show that suppression tactics that do not require the removal of individuals from networks of interactions are nearly always more effective than those that do. I find using simulation analysis of a general model of interdependent behavior that the degree to which such less disruptive suppression tactics are superior to more disruptive ones increases in the propensity of individuals to engage in the behavior in question.

Conclusions

Thus, hearts-and-minds approaches are generally more effective than force in counterterrorism and counterinsurgency, and partial insurance is usually a better tactic than gag rules in quelling financial panics. Differences between suppression tactics are greater when individual incentives to support terrorist or insurgent groups, or susceptibilities to financial panic, are higher. These conclusions have utility for policy-makers seeking to end bloody conflicts and prevent financial panics. As the model also applies to mass protest, its conclusions provide insight as well into the likely effects of different suppression strategies undertaken by authoritarian regimes seeking to hold on to power in the face of mass movements seeking to end them.     

Alcohol Consumption and the Neoplastic Progression in Barrett's Esophagus: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Purpose

In the developed countries, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) is increasing over recent decades. The purpose of this meta-analysis was to arrive at quantitative conclusions about the contribution of alcohol intakes and the progression of Barrett''s esophagus.

Methods

A comprehensive, systematic bibliographic search of medical literature published up to Oct 2013 was conducted to identify relevant studies. A meta-analysis was conducted for alcohol consumption on the Barrett''s esophagus progression.

Results

A total of 882 cases in 6,867 individuals from 14 observational studies were indemnified in this meta-analysis. The result of this current meta-analysis, including 10 case-control and 4 cohort studies, indicated that alcohol consumption was not associated with the neoplastic progression in Barrett''s esophagus (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.93–1.48). When stratified by the study designs, no significant association was detected in either high vs low group or ever vs never group.

Conclusions

Alcohol drinking is not associated with risk of neoplastic progression in Barrett''s esophagus. Further well designed studies are needed in this area.     

Reporting science and conflicts of interest in the lay press

Background

Forthright reporting of financial ties and conflicts of interest of researchers is associated with public trust in and esteem for the scientific enterprise.

Methods/Principal Findings

We searched Lexis/Nexis Academic News for the top news stories in science published in 2004 and 2005. We conducted a content analysis of 1152 newspaper stories. Funders of the research were identified in 38% of stories, financial ties of the researchers were reported in 11% of stories, and 5% reported financial ties of sources quoted. Of 73 stories not reporting on financial ties, 27% had financial ties publicly disclosed in scholarly journals.

Conclusions/Significance

Because science journalists often did not report conflict of interest information, adherence to gold-standard recommendations for science journalism was low. Journalists work under many different constraints, but nonetheless news reports of scientific research were incomplete, potentially eroding public trust in science.     

Pre-Pregnancy Body Mass Index in Relation to Infant Birth Weight and Offspring Overweight/Obesity: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Overweight/obesity in women of childbearing age is a serious public-health problem. In China, the incidence of maternal overweight/obesity has been increasing. However, there is not a meta-analysis to determine if pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) is related to infant birth weight (BW) and offspring overweight/obesity.

Methods

Three electronic bibliographic databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE and CINAHL) were searched systematically from January 1970 to November 2012. The dichotomous data on pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity and BW or offspring overweight/obesity were extracted. Summary statistics (odds ratios, ORs) were used by Review Manager, version 5.1.7.

Results

After screening 665 citations from three electronic databases, we included 45 studies (most of high or medium quality). Compared with normal-weight mothers, pre-pregnancy underweight increased the risk of small for gestational age (SGA) (odds ratios [OR], 1.81; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.76–1.87); low BW (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.27–1.71). Pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity increased the risk of being large for gestational age (LGA) (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.44–1.63; and OR, 2.08; 95% CI; 1.95–2.23), high BW (OR, 1.53; 95% CI, 1.44–1.63; and OR, 2.00; 95% CI; 1.84–2.18), macrosomia (OR, 1.67; 95% CI, 1.42–1.97; and OR, 3.23; 95% CI, 2.39–4.37), and subsequent offspring overweight/obesity (OR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.77–2.13; and OR, 3.06; 95% CI, 2.68–3.49), respectively. Sensitivity analyses revealed that sample size, study method, quality grade of study, source of pre-pregnancy BMI or BW had a strong impact on the association between pre-pregnancy obesity and LGA. No significant evidence of publication bias was observed.

Conclusions

Pre-pregnancy underweight increases the risk of SGA and LBW; pre-pregnancy overweight/obesity increases the risk of LGA, HBW, macrosomia, and subsequent offspring overweight/obesity. A potential effect modification by maternal age, ethnicity, gestational weight gain, as well as the role of gestational diseases should be addressed in future studies.     

The Potential Impact of a 20% Tax on Sugar-Sweetened Beverages on Obesity in South African Adults: A Mathematical Model

Background/Objectives

The prevalence of obesity in South Africa has risen sharply, as has the consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs). Research shows that consumption of SSBs leads to weight gain in both adults and children, and reducing SSBs will significantly impact the prevalence of obesity and its related diseases. We estimated the effect of a 20% tax on SSBs on the prevalence of and obesity among adults in South Africa.

Methods

A mathematical simulation model was constructed to estimate the effect of a 20% SSB tax on the prevalence of obesity. We used consumption data from the 2012 SA National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and a previous meta-analysis of studies on own- and cross-price elasticities of SSBs to estimate the shift in daily energy consumption expected of increased prices of SSBs, and energy balance equations to estimate shifts in body mass index. The population distribution of BMI by age and sex was modelled by fitting measured data from the SA National Income Dynamics Survey 2012 to the lognormal distribution and shifting the mean values. Uncertainty was assessed with Monte Carlo simulations.

Results

A 20% tax is predicted to reduce energy intake by about 36kJ per day (95% CI: 9-68kJ). Obesity is projected to reduce by 3.8% (95% CI: 0.6%–7.1%) in men and 2.4% (95% CI: 0.4%–4.4%) in women. The number of obese adults would decrease by over 220 000 (95% CI: 24 197–411 759).

Conclusions

Taxing SSBs could impact the burden of obesity in South Africa particularly in young adults, as one component of a multi-faceted effort to prevent obesity.     

Health Benefits of Reducing Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Intake in High Risk Populations of California: Results from the Cardiovascular Disease (CVD) Policy Model

Background

Consumption of sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) has risen over the past two decades, with over 10 million Californians drinking one or more SSB per day. High SSB intake is associated with risk of type 2 diabetes, obesity, hypertension, and coronary heart disease (CHD). Reduction of SSB intake and the potential impact on health outcomes in California and among racial, ethnic, and low-income sub-groups has not been quantified.

Methods

We projected the impact of reduced SSB consumption on health outcomes among all Californians and California subpopulations from 2013 to 2022. We used the CVD Policy Model – CA, an established computer simulation of diabetes and heart disease adapted to California. We modeled a reduction in SSB intake by 10–20% as has been projected to result from proposed penny-per-ounce excise tax on SSB and modeled varying effects of this reduction on health parameters including body mass index, blood pressure, and diabetes risk. We projected avoided cases of diabetes and CHD, and associated health care cost savings in 2012 US dollars.

Results

Over the next decade, a 10–20% SSB consumption reduction is projected to result in a 1.8–3.4% decline in the new cases of diabetes and an additional drop of 0.5–1% in incident CHD cases and 0.5–0.9% in total myocardial infarctions. The greatest reductions are expected in African Americans, Mexican Americans, and those with limited income regardless of race and ethnicity. This reduction in SSB consumption is projected to yield $320–620 million in medical cost savings associated with diabetes cases averted and an additional savings of $14–27 million in diabetes-related CHD costs avoided.

Conclusions

A reduction of SSB consumption could yield substantial population health benefits and cost savings for California. In particular, racial, ethnic, and low-income subgroups of California could reap the greatest health benefits.