“拉开档次”法的改进及其在河流生态健康评价中的应用

针对“拉开档次”法在进行综合评价过程中不能较好反映评价者主观信息的缺点,并考虑到影响河流生态系统健康的因素具有多层次、不确定和属性复杂等特点,对”拉开档次”法进行改进,并运用改进的”拉开档次”法对流经北京和天津的北运河上、中、下游各区段进行生态健康综合评价.结果表明,北运河上、中、下游各区段生态系统健康评价值分别为0.539、0.521、0.546,生态状况均处于亚健康状态;河流水环境状况对北运河生态系统健康影响程度最大.运用改进后的“拉开档次”法进行河流生态系统健康评价,既兼顾了评价者的主观判断,又包含了数据本身的客观信息,评价过程透明,评价结果科学、合理、客观、可靠,可为河流综合治理提供技术支持和基础依据.     

地区农业耕作模式的综合评价优化法

提出一种系统的综合评价方法对广东三水市种植业18种耕作模式进行综合评价．该法克服了仅用一种方法在评价中的片面性,使评价结果更加全面、客观,同时解决了评价结果总存在差异的现象．此外,还提出用指标客观权重进行综合评价更合理、更可靠．     

“拉开档次”法的改进及其在河流生态健康评价中的应用

针对“拉开档次”法在进行综合评价过程中不能较好反映评价者主观信息的缺点,并考虑到影响河流生态系统健康的因素具有多层次、不确定和属性复杂等特点,对”拉开档次”法进行改进,并运用改进的”拉开档次”法对流经北京和天津的北运河上、中、下游各区段进行生态健康综合评价.结果表明,北运河上、中、下游各区段生态系统健康评价值分别为0.539、0.521、0.546,生态状况均处于亚健康状态;河流水环境状况对北运河生态系统健康影响程度最大.运用改进后的“拉开档次”法进行河流生态系统健康评价,既兼顾了评价者的主观判断,又包含了数据本身的客观信息,评价过程透明,评价结果科学、合理、客观、可靠,可为河流综合治理提供技术支持和基础依据.     

基于两步移动搜索法的福州市公园绿地主客观可达性研究

公园绿地的可达性对于提升民生福祉、环境公平及城市高质量发展具有深远意义。综合考虑公园绿地的主观和客观供给能力,基于公园绿地规模、网络好评度、高德地图API路径规划等数据,运用高斯两步移动搜索法测度了居民单一出行及多交通出行模式下福州市公园绿地的客观和主观可达性,得出以下结论:(1)同一出行模式下公园绿地的主客观可达性差异大,客观可达性的高值区主要分布在非中心城区,而主观可达性的高值区大多分布在中心城区;(2)不同交通出行模式下主观和客观可达性也存在差异,步行出行模式下的公园绿地可达性低于驾车和公共交通出行模式的可达性,综合出行模式的可达性分布与驾车可达性分布相似,尚未形成公共交通主导的公园绿地发展模式;(3)公园绿地主客观供需平衡的县域少,供需不平衡的县域多,高人口密度县域存在公园绿地供给小于需求问题,非中心城区县域公园绿地主客观供需比普遍较低;(4)步行、驾车、公共交通出行模式下的高客观供需比-高主观供需比的公园绿地仅三坊七巷和福州市贵安新天地休闲旅游度假区,超过70%的公园绿地属低客观供需比-低主观供需比类型。本研究不仅关注公园绿地的空间可达性,也基于人的感受对公园绿地的主观可达性加以测度,为可达性评价提供新的研究思路,同时也为福州市公园绿地资源配置和存量绿地的质量提升提供建议。     

熵权法在药品不良反应信号筛选及综合风险评价中的应用

目的：在运用经典方法对药品不良反应信号进行检测后,对信号进行再筛选并评价药品的综合风险。方法：以江苏省药品不良反应监测网络数据库为资料来源,SQL server 为后台数据库,Matlab 为算法主要实现工具,运用熵权法结合专家评分,对BCPNN 方法检测出的信号进行再调整和评级。结果：运用综合权重进行调整后,发现不同药品不良反应信号的强弱发生了一定的变化。其中,氟喹诺酮类药品中的加替沙星导致低血糖、呼吸困难等药品不良反应的风险较信号评级之前有所增加,需要专家在评审时更为留意。结论：将熵权法运用在药品不良反应信号的监测中,可使信号更接近客观筛选和主观判断的平衡值,部分罕发但严重的药品不良反应信号得到发现和重视,并能方便地研究药物引起的多种药品不良反应的综合风险。     

Production Task Queue Optimization Based on Multi-Attribute Evaluation for Complex Product Assembly Workshop

The production task queue has a great significance for manufacturing resource allocation and scheduling decision. Man-made qualitative queue optimization method has a poor effect and makes the application difficult. A production task queue optimization method is proposed based on multi-attribute evaluation. According to the task attributes, the hierarchical multi-attribute model is established and the indicator quantization methods are given. To calculate the objective indicator weight, criteria importance through intercriteria correlation (CRITIC) is selected from three usual methods. To calculate the subjective indicator weight, BP neural network is used to determine the judge importance degree, and then the trapezoid fuzzy scale-rough AHP considering the judge importance degree is put forward. The balanced weight, which integrates the objective weight and the subjective weight, is calculated base on multi-weight contribution balance model. The technique for order preference by similarity to an ideal solution (TOPSIS) improved by replacing Euclidean distance with relative entropy distance is used to sequence the tasks and optimize the queue by the weighted indicator value. A case study is given to illustrate its correctness and feasibility.     

“满意度”与可持续发展评价研究进展

可持续发展是全人类共同追求并且不断探索完善的一种社会经济发展模式。各国研究机构和学者针对如何评价城市与区域可持续发展水平,提出了大量的分析方法、评价指标和研究框架。分析了"满意度"在城市与区域可持续发展评价中应用的发展历程、存在问题和研究展望。研究认为,在生态文明建设背景下,城市与区域可持续发展评价需从可持续发展的核心内涵出发,结合主观与客观的方法对指标体系进行判定,在充分利用客观信息提高城市可持续发展能力的同时,考虑居民对于城市可持续发展的要求与"满意度",提出建立与之相适应的指标动态监测体系,构建适应生态文明体制的可持续发展模式。     

Intermittent Androgen Suppression: Estimating Parameters for Individual Patients Based on Initial PSA Data in Response to Androgen Deprivation Therapy

When a physician decides on a treatment and its schedule for a specific patient, information gained from prior patients and experience in the past is taken into account. A more objective way to make such treatment decisions based on actual data would be useful to the clinician. Although there are many mathematical models proposed for various diseases, so far there is no mathematical method that accomplishes optimization of the treatment schedule using the information gained from past patients or “rapid learning” technology. In an attempt to use this approach, we integrate the information gained from patients previously treated with intermittent androgen suppression (IAS) with that from a current patient by first fitting the time courses of clinical data observed from the previously treated patients, then constructing the prior information of the parameter values of the mathematical model, and finally, maximizing the posterior probability for the parameters of the current patient using the prior information. Although we used data from prostate cancer patients, the proposed method is general, and thus can be applied to other diseases once an appropriate mathematical model is established for that disease.     

水稻品种灌浆期耐热性的综合评判

建立了一种对水稻品种的灌浆期耐热性进行综合评判的方法.选取籽粒充实度、秕粒率、饱粒密度、垩白米率、垩白度等5个与水稻灌浆期耐热性强弱密切相关的性状,以参评品种这5个性状的耐热系数为指标,应用主成分分析法将5个彼此相关的单项指标转化为2个累计贡献率达到85%以上的相互独立的综合指标,根据每一品种的5个单项性状的耐热系数和综合指标的标准化特征向量求出每一品种2个综合指标的得分.计算每一品种2个综合指标得分的隶属函数值,并以综合指标的贡献率来确定2个综合指标的权重,在此基础上进行加权求和,从而得到每一品种灌浆期耐热性的综合评判值（D值）.采用系统聚类分析方法对各品种的综合评判值（D值）进行数量分类,同时结合生产实际的要求,可把每一品种划归为不同的耐性等级.外部独立样本组的统计检验以及实践验证的结果表明,所建立的综合评判方法具有理想的效果,可以对不同品种灌浆期综合耐热性能的强弱作出客观、准确的评判.     

电场作用条件与作物种子生长的相关性

在综合评价电场强度及处理时间对作物生物效应影响时,如何确定生物效应指标之间的权重一直是困扰生物信息综合评价的核心问题。比如叶绿素增长1mg·L–1的价值相当于多少厘米根长的增加,这是一个难以回答的问题。同时,通过指标加权合成的方法获得综合评价的结果也存在信息丢失的缺陷。针对电场条件对作物生物效应的影响,利用数据包络分析的基本思想,给出了用于综合评价电场强度及处理时间对作物生物效应影响的非参数综合分析方法和相应的数学模型,该方法不仅可以克服上述缺点,而且还为分析不同外部条件对作物综合生物效应的影响程度提供了一种有效的分析工具。应用该方法综合评价了不同电场强度和不同处理时间对小麦（Triticumaestivum）种子幼苗株高和根长的影响。结果表明：不同电场强度和处理时间对小麦幼苗生长产生不同影响,在0.5–6.0kV·cm–1场强范围内,随电场强度增加,生理指标呈现振荡性变化,当处理时间为5分钟时,1.0和2.0kV·cm–1场强为最佳处理条件;处理时间为10分钟时,2.5kV·cm–1场强为最佳处理条件。     

基于融合理念的公立医院内部绩效考核体系探索研究

目的 建立与公立医院目标任务及外部绩效评价相匹配的内部绩效考核体系。方法 监控样本公立医院内部绩效考核体系的运行状态,对现行内部绩效考核体系的运行效果及医务人员反馈意见进行分析。调研管理部门、临床科室,访谈部门科室管理人员。结果 总结了现行内部绩效考核体系待改进的问题,提出基于医疗过程和医疗结果相结合进行全面评价、改进内部绩效工资测算方法、建立完善职能部门绩效评价体系、建立绩效沟通数据平台、融合政策执行评估的改进方案。结论 内部绩效考核体系的动态改进是公立医院实现医院目标任务、执行外部绩效评价的必然要求。     

Application of satellite data for investigation of dynamic processes in inland water bodies: Lake Shira (Khakasia, Siberia), a case study

This work describes avenues to use satellite information to analyse dynamic processes in aquatic ecosystems. Information for this analysis, was retrieved from AVHRR satellite sensor data. This information consisteds of time series of images of radiation temperature and turbidity. We expect this information will be of great value in analysing inland water bodies. Methods to process satellite information using original software and data processing techniques are proposed. For the investigation of the process and analyses of satellite information Shira Lake (Khakasia, Siberia) was used as a case study. To study the variability of the surface temperature and turbidity of the Lake in summer, the satellite and ground-truth data of the lake was applied. This study represents the first evaluation of the dynamic processes for Lake Shira based on satellite, ground-truth and modelling data. We developed algorithms and software to process satellite images to enable the reconstruction of time dependence of temperature and spectral reflectance of water bodies in the visible range, and to make computer-animated films visualising the spatial and temporal dynamics of the study parameters. The analyses of morphometric, meteorological and hydrological characteristics of Lake Shira have provided a realistic opportunity for processing the satellite information and to develop numerical models of variability of the hydrological regime of the lake. The results obtained demonstrate the feasibility of systematically retrieving the spatial information from the satellite data on the dynamics of the surface water temperature and of the suspended matter in the lake.     

煤炭企业循环经济综合评价指标体系构建及评价——以西山公司为例

发展循环经济是构建和谐矿区,实现矿区可持续发展的必然选择,建立循环经济评价指标体系是评判循环经济发展质量的主要依据.依据西山公司企业循环经济发展水平评价指标体系构建的4个基本原则,构建了一套西山公司循环经济发展水平的评价指标体系,该指标体系由目标层、准则层、指标层3个等级,管理、环境、经济3个系统共25个具体指标组成,并提出了西山公司循环经济发展水平的评价模型.     

Real-time quantification of human physiological state in high temperature environments based on variable weight theory

Accurate real-time evaluation of human physiological state is significant for safety guidance and early warning for people in high temperature environments. The constant weight method often makes the evaluation results deviating from reality. In this paper, the variable weight theory is adopted to solve above problem. Firstly, a human physiological state evaluation system is proposed. Secondly, the constant weight and variable weight methods are used to obtain the weights of the indexes. Thus, the comprehensive evaluation score is obtained to quantify the human physiological state. Finally, a case study is conducted to demonstrate and verify the proposed evaluation system. It indicates that, the variable weight of rectal temperature, skin temperature, systolic pressure and heart rate is 0.2∼0.77, 0.11∼0.61, 0.03∼0.31, 0.03∼0.31, respectively. And the weights of the skin temperature and the rectal temperature account for a relatively large proportion, ranging from 50% to 92%. The physiological parameters with small constant weight may account for a larger percentage in the evaluation when the physiological parameters reach an extremely harmful condition. This paper can provide more reasonable and scientific method in physiological state quantification for people in high temperature environments.     

电场作用条件与作物种子生长的相关性

在综合评价电场强度及处理时间对作物生物效应影响时, 如何确定生物效应指标之间的权重一直是困扰生物信息综合评价的核心问题。比如叶绿素增长1 mg·L^–1 的价值相当于多少厘米根长的增加, 这是一个难以回答的问题。同时, 通过指标加权合成的方法获得综合评价的结果也存在信息丢失的缺陷。针对电场条件对作物生物效应的影响, 利用数据包络分析的基本思想, 给出了用于综合评价电场强度及处理时间对作物生物效应影响的非参数综合分析方法和相应的数学模型, 该方法不仅可以克服上述缺点, 而且还为分析不同外部条件对作物综合生物效应的影响程度提供了一种有效的分析工具。应用该方法综合评价了不同电场强度和不同处理时间对小麦 (Triticum aestivum)种子幼苗株高和根长的影响。结果表明: 不同电场强度和处理时间对小麦幼苗生长产生不同影响, 在0.5–6.0 kV·cm^–1场强范围内, 随电场强度增加, 生理指标呈现振荡性变化, 当处理时间为5分钟时, 1.0和2.0 kV·cm^–1场强为最佳处理条件; 处理时间为10分钟时, 2.5 kV·cm^–1场强为最佳处理条件。     

Consciousness, its criteria and the possible mechanisms]

Consciousness is characterized by the objective and subjective criteria. Accordingly, this is the ability to operation with knowledge, its transmission to other people in abstract form and the feeling of "ego" as a subject of these actions. Objective and subjective signs of the consciousness are provided with the mechanism based on the synthesis of information coming from organs of sensation extracted from memory and coming from the centers of emotions and motivations. As a result of this synthesis the sensation of "ego", appears, and information estranged from it and offered for others is determined. An important role in the informational synthesis is played by the dynamic cortical structures--foci of interaction. In the process of perception they are localized mostly in projective zones of analyzers, at thinking--in associative zones of the cortex. Realization is closely connected with communication and formation of foci of interaction in the verbal zones of the left hemisphere.     

An image analysis and statistical evaluation program for the assessment of tumour cell invasion in vitro.

Tumour cell invasion is a complex process, which is essential for the formation of metastasis and is therefore of critical clinical importance. For detailed investigations of the invasive process, quantifiable in vitro models of invasion are necessary. In this study we describe an image analysis procedure and a statistical program which facilitate an objective analysis of experiments carried out using the embryonic chick heart invasion model of Mareel. Tumour multicellular spheroids are confronted with embryonic chick heart fragments in culture and are sampled after different time intervals for up to 7 days. Immunohistological sections are then evaluated by an image analysis procedure which provides 9 parameters indicating invasion, proliferation and destruction taking place in the confrontation cultures. The data obtained by image analysis are further evaluated by a statistical program which describes the change with time of each parameter by means of linear regression analysis. Thus the data obtained at various time intervals serve as the source data for a single statistic, namely the slope of the regression line. Confidence intervals and statistical differences between various experiments can be calculated. In order to make the procedure more comprehensible in biological terms, the program provides a full text interpretation of the experimental results. The image analysis procedure in conjunction with statistical evaluation and text interpretation provides a comprehensive tool for the quantitative assessment of experimental invasion in vitro.     

基于AHP与Rough Set的农业节水技术综合评价

由于不同区域自然条件的差异,农业节水技术自身特点及对应用环境条件的要求,导致不同农业节水技术的应用效果存在很大差异,有较大的不确定性,因此,如何筛选合理的评价指标,构建科学、全面的农业节水技术综合评价方法具有十分重要的意义。根据对农业节水技术应用效果的实地调研,应用Delphi法从调查获得的20项评价指标中筛选出了9项农业节水技术综合评价指标。其中节水率、积温和土壤肥力属于生态因子,产投比、劳动力投入和经济投入属于经济因子,可靠性、推广程度和农民认可度为社会因子。基于以上9项指标,构建了农业节水技术综合评价指标体系.综合评价方法(ARM)通过引入经验因子α对应用层次分析法(AHP)和粗糙集(Rough Set)所获得指标权重进行修订,使指标权重更加合理化。同时,分别应用AHP、Rough Set和ARM对甘肃省武威市的地膜覆盖、秸秆覆盖和常规畦田灌溉在大田中的应用效果进行了综合评价。评价结果显示,在对地膜覆盖技术评价中,AHP法过分强调了经济效益的作用(0.44),Rough Set法则强调的是生态效益(0.33)和社会效益(0.32),弱化了经济效益(0.05),ARM修正了以上2种方法的评价结果,获得地膜覆盖的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益,分别为0.36、0.20和0.13。在对秸秆覆盖评价中,与其它两种方法相比,Rough Set法的评价结果存在显著性差异,ARM修正获得的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益,分别为0.09、0.18和0.06。在对常规畦田灌溉评价中,Rough Set法强调了生态效益(0.28),经过修正获得的经济效益、生态效益和社会效益,分别为0.24、0.01和0.13。ARM的评价结果表明,采用地膜覆盖的经济效益最佳;同常规畦田灌溉相比较,地膜覆盖、秸秆覆盖的生态性指数分别比之高0.19和0.17,主要是由于秸秆覆盖具有保墒、增加土壤有机质以及在作物生长后期调节地温的作用,地膜覆盖具有节水、提高苗期土壤温度和促进提前出苗的作用;同秸秆覆盖相比,地膜覆盖和常规畦田灌溉的社会性指数分别高112.12%、18.18%,说明这两种技术在河西半干旱地区具有良好的社会基础。可见,在西北半干旱地区地膜覆盖用于种植玉米的效果最佳,而秸秆覆盖尽管其生态效益较高,但经济效益较低,推广应用存在一定的难度。     

IND综合评价的逻辑结构及成药性评价

基于各学科信息作出安全性、有效性和质量可控性方面的综合评价是新药研究评价的灵魂,是一个多学科、多组织参与的综合决策过程。根据新药评价研究的实际工作经验,介绍一个新药临床试验综合评价的逻辑性、结构性的工作思考模式,有助于将不同专业的技术信息和技术结论有机整合,作出科学决策。     

国家公园管理评估体系构建与应用

国家公园是我国新的自然保护地类型之一,在我国自然保护地体系中具有主体地位。为保障国家公园的可持续发展,对其管理的有效性进行科学、客观和全面的评估至关重要。遵循国家公园生态保护第一、国家代表性和全民公益性的理念,及其生态保护和科研、教育、游憩等功能定位,按照"条件基础-过程行动-取得成效"的思路,构建了包括管理基础、管理行动和管理成效3个一级指标、9个二级指标、22个三级指标的国家公园管理评估指标体系;沿用基于专家评议的快速记分评价法,通过专家咨询法和层次分析法计算权重和分级赋值,并进行综合评估;基于上述方法,对钱江源国家公园体制试点区管理工作进行了试评估。结果表明,该评估体系能够较好反映钱江源国家公园体制试点管理的现状,有效指导钱江源国家公园体制试点的管理工作,并可为国家公园管理评估标准体系的建立提供借鉴。