Knowledge Transfer on Complex Social Interventions in Public Health: A Scoping Study

Objectives

Scientific knowledge can help develop interventions that improve public health. The objectives of this review are (1) to describe the status of research on knowledge transfer strategies in the field of complex social interventions in public health and (2) to identify priorities for future research in this field.

Method

A scoping study is an exploratory study. After searching databases of bibliographic references and specialized periodicals, we summarized the relevant studies using a predetermined assessment framework. In-depth analysis focused on the following items: types of knowledge transfer strategies, fields of public health, types of publics, types of utilization, and types of research specifications.

Results

From the 1,374 references identified, we selected 26 studies. The strategies targeted mostly administrators of organizations and practitioners. The articles generally dealt with instrumental utilization and most often used qualitative methods. In general, the bias risk for the studies is high.

Conclusion

Researchers need to consider the methodological challenges in this field of research in order to improve assessment of more complex knowledge transfer strategies (when they exist), not just diffusion/dissemination strategies and conceptual and persuasive utilization.     

Urban and Rural Safety Net Health Care System Clinics: No Disparity in HPV4 Vaccine Completion Rates

Objective

Safety net health care centers in the US serve vulnerable and underinsured females. The primary aim of this work was to determine if HPV4 dosing compliance differs between females who receive doses at rural vs. urban core safety net health care locations.

Methods

Females exclusively receiving health care in the Truman Medical Center (TMC) safety net system at the urban core and rural locations were identified by their HPV4 vaccine records. Dates and number of HPV4 doses as well as age, gravidity, parity and race/ethnicity were recorded from the electronic medical record (EMR). Appropriate HPV4 dosing intervals were referenced from the literature.

Results

1259 females, 10–26 years of age, received HPV4 vaccination at either the rural (23%) or urban core location (77%). At the rural location, 23% received three doses on time, equal to the 24% at the urban core. Females seen in the urban core were more likely to receive on-time doublet dosing than on-time triplet dosing (82% vs. 67%, p<0.001). Mistimed doses occurred equally often among females receiving only two doses, as well as those receiving three doses.

Conclusions

Compliance with on-time HPV4 triplet dose completion was low at rural and urban core safety net health clinics, but did not differ by location.     

Disparities in HIV Screening among Pregnant Women – El Salvador, 2011

Objectives

To provide an accurate estimate of antenatal HIV screening and its determinants among pregnant women in El Salvador and help local authorities make informed decisions for targeted interventions around mother-to-child transmission (MTCT).

Methods

A total sample of 4,730 women aged 15-49 years were interviewed from a random sample of 3,625 households. We collected data on antenatal care services, including HIV screening, during last pregnancy through a pre-established questionnaire. We used a backward elimination multivariate logistic regression model to examine the association between HIV screening and sociodemographic and health care-related factors.

Results

A total of 2,929 women were included in this analysis. About 98% of participants reported receiving antenatal care, but only 83% of these reported being screened for HIV. Screening was lower in geographic areas with higher HIV incidence and ranged from 69.1% among women who were not seen by a physician during antenatal care, to 93.7% among those who attended or completed college. Odds for screening varied also by age, employment status, household economic expenditure, possession of health care coverage, health care settings, and number of antenatal care visits.

Conclusions

We found disparities in HIV screening during antenatal care at the environmental, social, demographic, and structural levels despite a high uptake of antenatal care in El Salvador. Our findings should urge health authorities to tailor and enhance current strategies implemented to eliminate MTCT and reduce inequities and HIV morbidity among women in El Salvador.     

Telemedicine Application in the Care of Diabetes Patients: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The impact of telemedicine application on the management of diabetes patients is unclear, as the results are not consistent among different studies. The objective of this study is to conduct a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) assessing the impact of telemedicine interventions on change in hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), blood pressure, LDL cholesterol (LDL-c) and body mass index (BMI) in diabetes patients.

Methods

Electronic databases MEDLINE, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and LILACS were searched to identify relevant studies published until April 2012, supplemented by references from the selected articles. Study search and selection were performed by independent reviewers. Of the 6.258 articles retrieved, 13 RCTs (4207 patients) were included. Random effects model was applied to estimate the pooled results.

Results

Telemedicine was associated with a statistically significant and clinically relevant absolute decline in HbA1c level compared to control (mean difference -0.44% [-4.8 mmol/mol] and 95% confidence interval [CI] -0.61 to -0.26% [-6.7 to -2.8 mmol/mol]; p<0.001). LDL-c was reduced in 6.6 mg/dL (95% CI -8.3 to -4.9; p<0.001), but the clinical relevance of this effect can be questioned. No effects of telemedicine strategies were seen on systolic (-1.6 mmHg and 95% CI -7.2 to 4.1) and diastolic blood pressure (-1.1 mmHg and 95% CI -3.0 to 0.8). The 2 studies that assessed the effect on BMI demonstrated a tendency of BMI reduction in favor of telemedicine.

Conclusions

Telemedicine strategies combined to the usual care were associated with improved glycemic control in diabetic patients. No clinical relevant impact was observed on LDL-c and blood pressure, and there was a tendency of BMI reduction in diabetes patients who used telemedicine, but these outcomes should be further explored in future trials.     

Do Strategies to Improve Quality of Maternal and Child Health Care in Lower and Middle Income Countries Lead to Improved Outcomes? A Review of the Evidence

Objectives

Efforts to scale-up maternal and child health services in lower and middle income countries will fail if services delivered are not of good quality. Although there is evidence of strategies to increase the quality of health services, less is known about the way these strategies affect health system goals and outcomes. We conducted a systematic review of the literature to examine this relationship.

Methods

We undertook a search of MEDLINE, SCOPUS and CINAHL databases, limiting the results to studies including strategies specifically aimed at improving quality that also reported a measure of quality and at least one indicator related to health system outcomes. Variation in study methodologies prevented further quantitative analysis; instead we present a narrative review of the evidence.

Findings

Methodologically, the quality of evidence was poor, and dominated by studies of individual facilities. Studies relied heavily on service utilisation as a measure of strategy success, which did not always correspond to improved quality. The majority of studies targeted the competency of staff and adequacy of facilities. No strategies addressed distribution systems, public-private partnership or equity. Key themes identified were the conflict between perceptions of patients and clinical measures of quality and the need for holistic approaches to health system interventions.

Conclusion

Existing evidence linking quality improvement strategies to improved MNCH outcomes is extremely limited. Future research would benefit from the inclusion of more appropriate indicators and additional focus on non-facility determinants of health service quality such as health policy, supply distribution, community acceptability and equity of care.     

A Stochastic Multi-Scale Model of HIV-1 Transmission for Decision-Making: Application to a MSM Population

Background

In the absence of an effective vaccine against HIV-1, the scientific community is presented with the challenge of developing alternative methods to curb its spread. Due to the complexity of the disease, however, our ability to predict the impact of various prevention and treatment strategies is limited. While ART has been widely accepted as the gold standard of modern care, its timing is debated.

Objectives

To evaluate the impact of medical interventions at the level of individuals on the spread of infection across the whole population. Specifically, we investigate the impact of ART initiation timing on HIV-1 spread in an MSM (Men who have Sex with Men) population.

Design and Methods

A stochastic multi-scale model of HIV-1 transmission that integrates within a single framework the in-host cellular dynamics and their outcomes, patient health states, and sexual contact networks. The model captures disease state and progression within individuals, and allows for simulation of therapeutic strategies.

Results

Early ART initiation may substantially affect disease spread through a population.

Conclusions

Our model provides a multi-scale, systems-based approach to evaluate the broader implications of therapeutic strategies.     

Prevalence of Diabetes in the Republic of Ireland: Results from the National Health Survey (SLAN) 2007

Background

Current estimates of diabetes prevalence in the Republic of Ireland (RoI) are based on UK epidemiological studies. This study uses Irish data to describe the prevalence of doctor-diagnosed diabetes amongst all adults aged 18+ years and undiagnosed diabetes amongst those aged 45+ years.

Methods

The survey of lifestyle attitudes and nutrition (SLAN) 2007 is based on a nationally representative sample of Irish adults aged 18+ years (n = 10,364). Self-reported doctor-diagnosed diabetes was recorded for respondents in the full sample. Diabetes medication use, measured height and weight, and non-fasting blood samples were variously recorded in sub-samples of younger (n = 967) and older (n = 1,207) respondents.

Results

The prevalence of doctor-diagnosed diabetes amongst adults aged 18+ years was 3.5% (95% CI 3.1% - 3.9%). After adjustment for other explanatory variables; the risk of self-reported doctor-diagnosed diabetes was significantly related to age (p < 0.0001), employment status (p = 0.0003) and obesity (p = 0.0003). Amongst adults aged 45+ years, the prevalence of doctor-diagnosed diabetes was 8.9% (95% CI 7.3% -10.5%) and undiagnosed diabetes was 2.8% (95% CI 1.4% - 4.1%). This represented 31.2% of diabetes cases in this age group.

Conclusion

Notwithstanding methodological differences, these prevalence estimates are consistent with those in the UK and France. However, the percentage of undiagnosed cases amongst adults aged 45+ years appears to be higher in the RoI. Increased efforts to improve early detection and population level interventions to address adverse diet and lifestyle factors are urgently needed.     

Intimate Partner Violence and Pregnancy: A Systematic Review of Interventions

Background

Intimate partner violence (IPV) around the time of pregnancy is a widespread global health problem with many negative consequences. Nevertheless, a lot remains unclear about which interventions are effective and might be adopted in the perinatal care context.

Objective

The objective is to provide a clear overview of the existing evidence on effectiveness of interventions for IPV around the time of pregnancy.

Methods

Following databases PubMed, Web of Science, CINAHL and the Cochrane Library were systematically searched and expanded by hand search. The search was limited to English peer-reviewed randomized controlled trials published from 2000 to 2013. This review includes all types of interventions aiming to reduce IPV around the time of pregnancy as a primary outcome, and as secondary outcomes to enhance physical and/or mental health, quality of life, safety behavior, help seeking behavior, and/or social support.

Results

We found few randomized controlled trials evaluating interventions for IPV around the time of pregnancy. Moreover, the nine studies identified did not produce strong evidence that certain interventions are effective. Nonetheless, home visitation programs and some multifaceted counseling interventions did produce promising results. Five studies reported a statistically significant decrease in physical, sexual and/or psychological partner violence (odds ratios from 0.47 to 0.92). Limited evidence was found for improved mental health, less postnatal depression, improved quality of life, fewer subsequent miscarriages, and less low birth weight/prematurity. None of the studies reported any evidence of a negative or harmful effect of the interventions.

Conclusions and implications

Strong evidence of effective interventions for IPV during the perinatal period is lacking, but some interventions show promising results. Additional large-scale, high-quality research is essential to provide further evidence about the effect of certain interventions and clarify which interventions should be adopted in the perinatal care context.     

Primary Health Care Utilization by the Mexican Indigenous Population: The Role of the Seguro Popular in Socially Inequitable Contexts

Objective

To analyze the relationship between primary health care utilization and extended health insurance coverage under the Seguro Popular (SP) among Mexican indigenous people.

Methodology

A cross-sectional analysis was conducted using data from the Mexican National Nutrition Survey 2012 (n = 194,758). Quasi-experimental matching methods and nonlinear regression probit models were used to estimate the influence of SP on primary health care utilization.

Results

25% of the Mexican population reported having no health insurance coverage, while 59% of indigenous versus 35% of non-indigenous reported having SP coverage. Health problems were reported by 13.9% of indigenous vs. 10.5% of non-indigenous; of these, 52.8% and 57.7% respectively, received primary health care (p<0.05). Economic barriers were the most frequent reasons for not using primary health care services. The probability of utilizing primary health care services was 11.5 percentage points higher (p<0.01) for indigenous SP affiliates in comparison with non-indigenous, in similar socioeconomic conditions.

Conclusion

Socioeconomic conditions, not ethnicity per-se, determine whether people utilize primary health care services. Therefore, SP can be conceived as a public policy strategy which acts as a social buffer by enhancing health care utilization regardless of ethnicity. Further analysis is required to explore the potential gaps as a result of SP coverage among socially vulnerable groups.     

Pancreatic Endocrine and Exocrine Function in Children following Near-Total Pancreatectomy for Diffuse Congenital Hyperinsulinism

Context

Congenital hyperinsulinism (CHI), the commonest cause of persistent hypoglycaemia, has two main histological subtypes: diffuse and focal. Diffuse CHI, if medically unresponsive, is managed with near-total pancreatectomy. Post-pancreatectomy, in addition to persistent hypoglycaemia, there is a very high risk of diabetes mellitus and pancreatic exocrine insufficiency.

Setting

International referral centre for the management of CHI.

Patients

Medically unresponsive diffuse CHI patients managed with near-total pancreatectomy between 1994 and 2012.

Intervention

Near-total pancreatectomy.

Main Outcome Measures

Persistent hypoglycaemia post near-total pancreatectomy, insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus, clinical and biochemical (faecal elastase 1) pancreatic exocrine insufficiency.

Results

Of more than 300 patients with CHI managed during this time period, 45 children had medically unresponsive diffuse disease and were managed with near-total pancreatectomy. After near-total pancreatectomy, 60% of children had persistent hypoglycaemia requiring medical interventions. The incidence of insulin dependent diabetes mellitus was 96% at 11 years after surgery. Thirty-two patients (72%) had biochemical evidence of severe pancreatic exocrine insufficiency (Faecal elastase 1<100 µg/g). Clinical exocrine insufficiency was observed in 22 (49%) patients. No statistically significant difference in weight and height standard deviation score (SDS) was found between untreated subclinical pancreatic exocrine insufficiency patients and treated clinical pancreatic exocrine insufficiency patients.

Conclusions

The outcome of diffuse CHI patients after near-total pancreatectomy is very unsatisfactory. The incidence of persistent hypoglycaemia and insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus is very high. The presence of clinical rather than biochemical pancreatic exocrine insufficiency should inform decisions about pancreatic enzyme supplementation.     

Linkage to HIV,TB and Non-Communicable Disease Care from a Mobile Testing Unit in Cape Town,South Africa

Background

HIV counseling and testing may serve as an entry point for non-communicable disease screening.

Objectives

To determine the yield of newly-diagnosed HIV, tuberculosis (TB) symptoms, diabetes and hypertension, and to assess CD4 count testing, linkage to care as well as correlates of linkage and barriers to care from a mobile testing unit.

Methods

A mobile unit provided screening for HIV, TB symptoms, diabetes and hypertension in Cape Town, South Africa between March 2010 and September 2011. The yield of newly-diagnosed cases of these conditions was measured and clients were followed-up between January and November 2011 to assess linkage. Linkage to care was defined as accessing care within one, three or six months post-HIV diagnosis (dependent on CD4 count) and one month post-diagnosis for other conditions. Clinical and socio-demographic correlates of linkage to care were evaluated using Poisson regression and barriers to care were determined.

Results

Of 9,806 clients screened, the yield of new diagnoses was: HIV (5.5%), TB suspects (10.1%), diabetes (0.8%) and hypertension (58.1%). Linkage to care for HIV-infected clients, TB suspects, diabetics and hypertensives was: 51.3%, 56.7%, 74.1% and 50.0%. Only disclosure of HIV-positive status to family members or partners (RR=2.6, 95% CI: 1.04-6.3, p=0.04) was independently associated with linkage to HIV care. The main barrier to care reported by all groups was lack of time to access a clinic.

Conclusion

Screening for HIV, TB symptoms and hypertension at mobile units in South Africa has a high yield but inadequate linkage. After-hours and weekend clinics may overcome a major barrier to accessing care.     

Ethnic Differences in Glycaemic Control in People with Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Living in Scotland

Background and Aims

Previous studies have investigated the association between ethnicity and processes of care and intermediate outcomes of diabetes, but there are limited population-based studies available. The aim of this study was to use population-based data to investigate the relationships between ethnicity and glycaemic control in men and women with diabetes mellitus living in Scotland

Methods

We used a 2008 extract from the population-based national electronic diabetes database of Scotland. The association between ethnicity with mean glycaemic control in type 2 diabetes mellitus was examined in a retrospective cohort study, including adjustment for a number of variables including age, sex, socioeconomic status, body mass index (BMI), prescribed treatment and duration of diabetes.

Results

Complete data for analyses were available for 56,333 White Scottish adults, 2,535 Pakistanis, 857 Indians, 427 Chinese and 223 African-Caribbeans. All other ethnic groups had significantly (p<0.05) greater proportions of people with suboptimal glycaemic control (HbA1c >58 mmol/mol, 7.5%) compared to the White Scottish group, despite generally younger mean age and lower BMI. Fully adjusted odds ratios for suboptimal glycaemic control were significantly higher among Pakistanis and Indians (1.85, 95% CI: 1.68–2.04, and 1.62,95% CI: 1.38–1.89) respectively.

Conclusions

Pakistanis and Indians with type 2 diabetes mellitus were more likely to have suboptimal glycaemic control than the white Scottish population. Further research on health services and self-management are needed to understand the association between ethnicity and glycaemic control to address ethnic disparities in glycaemic control.     

Trauma-Related Mortality among Adults in Rural Western Kenya: Characterising Deaths Using Data from a Health and Demographic Surveillance System

Background

Information on trauma-related deaths in low and middle income countries is limited but needed to target public health interventions. Data from a health and demographic surveillance system (HDSS) were examined to characterise such deaths in rural western Kenya.

Methods And Findings

Verbal autopsy data were analysed. Of 11,147 adult deaths between 2003 and 2008, 447 (4%) were attributed to trauma; 71% of these were in males. Trauma contributed 17% of all deaths in males 15 to 24 years; on a population basis mortality rates were greatest in persons over 65 years. Intentional causes accounted for a higher proportion of male than female deaths (RR 2.04, 1.37-3.04) and a higher proportion of deaths of those aged 15 to 65 than older people. Main causes in males were assaults (n=79, 25%) and road traffic injuries (n=47, 15%); and falls for females (n=17, 13%). A significantly greater proportion of deaths from poisoning (RR 5.0, 2.7-9.4) and assault (RR 1.8, 1.2-2.6) occurred among regular consumers of alcohol than among non-regular drinkers. In multivariate analysis, males had a 4-fold higher risk of death from trauma than females (Adjusted Relative Risk; ARR 4.0; 95% CI 1.7-9.4); risk of a trauma death rose with age, with the elderly at 7-fold higher risk (ARR 7.3, 1.1-49.2). Absence of care was the strongest predictor of trauma death (ARR 12.2, 9.4-15.8). Trauma-related deaths were higher among regular alcohol drinkers (ARR 1.5, 1.1-1.9) compared with non-regular drinkers.

Conclusions

While trauma accounts for a small proportion of deaths in this rural area with a high prevalence of HIV, TB and malaria, preventive interventions such as improved road safety, home safety strategies for the elderly, and curbing harmful use of alcohol, are available and could help diminish this burden. Improvements in systems to record underlying causes of death from trauma are required.     

Application of the UK Foresight Obesity Model in Ireland: The Health and Economic Consequences of Projected Obesity Trends in Ireland

Background

Given the scale of the current obesity epidemic and associated health consequences there has been increasing concern about the economic burden placed on society in terms of direct healthcare costs and indirect societal costs. In the Republic of Ireland these costs were estimated at €1.13 billion for 2009. The total direct healthcare costs for six major obesity related conditions (coronary heart disease & stroke, cancer, hypertension, type 2 diabetes and knee osteoarthritis) in the same year were estimated at €2.55 billion. The aim of this research is to project disease burden and direct healthcare costs for these conditions in Ireland to 2030 using the established model developed by the Health Forum (UK) for the Foresight: Tackling Obesities project.

Methodology

Routine data sources were used to derive incidence, prevalence, mortality and survival for six conditions as inputs for the model. The model utilises a two stage modelling process to predict future BMI rates, disease prevalence and costs. Stage 1 employs a non-linear multivariate regression model to project BMI trends; stage 2 employs a microsimulation approach to produce longitudinal projections and test the impact of interventions upon future incidence of obesity-related disease.

Results

Overweight and obesity are projected to reach levels of 89% and 85% in males and females respectively by 2030. This will result in an increase in the obesity related prevalence of CHD & stroke by 97%, cancers by 61% and type 2 diabetes by 21%. The direct healthcare costs associated with these increases will amount to €5.4 billion by 2030. A 5% reduction in population BMI levels by 2030 is projected to result in €495 million less being spent in obesity-related direct healthcare costs over twenty years.

Discussion

These findings have significant implications for policy, highlighting the need for effective strategies to prevent this avoidable health and economic burden.     

Meeting Community Health Worker Needs for Maternal Health Care Service Delivery Using Appropriate Mobile Technologies in Ethiopia

Background

Mobile health applications are complex interventions that essentially require changes to the behavior of health care professionals who will use them and changes to systems or processes in delivery of care. Our aim has been to meet the technical needs of Health Extension Workers (HEWs) and midwives for maternal health using appropriate mobile technologies tools.

Methods

We have developed and evaluated a set of appropriate smartphone health applications using open source components, including a local language adapted data collection tool, health worker and manager user-friendly dashboard analytics and maternal-newborn protocols. This is an eighteen month follow-up of an ongoing observational research study in the northern of Ethiopia involving two districts, twenty HEWs, and twelve midwives.

Results

Most health workers rapidly learned how to use and became comfortable with the touch screen devices so only limited technical support was needed. Unrestricted use of smartphones generated a strong sense of ownership and empowerment among the health workers. Ownership of the phones was a strong motivator for the health workers, who recognised the value and usefulness of the devices, so took care to look after them. A low level of smartphones breakage (8.3%,3 from 36) and loss (2.7%) were reported. Each health worker made an average of 160 mins of voice calls and downloaded 27Mb of data per month, however, we found very low usage of short message service (less than 3 per month).

Conclusions

Although it is too early to show a direct link between mobile technologies and health outcomes, mobile technologies allow health managers to more quickly and reliably have access to data which can help identify where there issues in the service delivery. Achieving a strong sense of ownership and empowerment among health workers is a prerequisite for a successful introduction of any mobile health program.     

Maternal and Antenatal Risk Factors for Stillbirths and Neonatal Mortality in Rural Bangladesh: A Case-Control Study

Objective

To identify maternal and antenatal factors associated with stillbirths and neonatal deaths in rural Bangladesh.

Study Design

A prospective cohort study is being conducted to evaluate a maternal and child nutrition program in rural Bangladesh. Cases were all stillbirths and neonatal deaths that occurred in the cohort between March 7, 2011 and December 30, 2011. Verbal autopsies were used to determine cause of death. For each case, four controls were randomly selected from cohort members alive at age 3-months. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with these deaths.

Results

Overall, 112 adverse pregnancy outcomes (44 stillbirths, 19/1,000 births; 68 neonatal deaths, 29/1,000 live births) were reported. Of the stillbirths 25 (56.8%) were fresh. The main causes of neonatal death were birth asphyxia (35%), sepsis (28%) and preterm birth (19%). History of bleeding during pregnancy was the strongest risk factor for stillbirths (adjusted odds ratio 22.4 [95% confidence interval 2.5, 197.5]) and neonatal deaths (adjusted odds ratio 19.6 [95% confidence interval 2.1, 178.8]). Adequate maternal nutrition was associated with decreased risk of neonatal death (adjusted odds ratio 0.4 [95% confidence interval 0.2, 0.8]).

Conclusions

Identifying high-risk pregnancies during gestation and ensuring adequate antenatal and obstetric care needs to be a priority for any community-based maternal and child health program in similar settings.     

Trajectories of Self-Rated Health in People with Diabetes: Associations with Functioning in a Prospective Community Sample

Background

Self-rated health (SRH) is a single-item measure that is one of the most widely used measures of general health in population health research. Relatively little is known about changes and the trajectories of SRH in people with chronic medical conditions. The aims of the present study were to identify and describe longitudinal trajectories of self-rated health (SRH) status in people with diabetes.

Methods

A prospective community study was carried out between 2008 and 2011. SRH was assessed at baseline and yearly at follow-ups (n=1288). Analysis was carried out through trajectory modeling. The trajectory groups were subsequently compared at 4 years follow-up with respect to functioning.

Results

Four distinct trajectories of SRH were identified: 1) 72.2% of the participants were assigned to a persistently good SRH trajectory; 2) 10.1% were assigned to a persistently poor SRH trajectory; 3) mean SRH scores changed from good to poor for one group (7.3%); while 4) mean SRH scores changed from poor to medium/good for another group (10.4%). Those with a persistently poor perception of health status were at higher risk for poor functioning at 4 years follow-up than those whose SRH scores decreased from good to poor.

Conclusions

SRH is an important predictor for poor functioning in diabetes, but the trajectory of SRH seems to be even more important. Health professionals should pay attention to not only SRH per se, but also changes in SRH over time.     

Forecasting Temporal Dynamics of Cutaneous Leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil

Introduction

Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation.

Significance

These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets.