The geographical range of British birds expands during 15 years of warming

Capsule Abundance monitoring data suggest that the short-term response of breeding birds to recent warming in Great Britain has been range expansion, caused by poleward shifts of leading range margins and no significant shifts of trailing range margins.

Aims To quantify latitudinal and elevational shifts of breeding bird populations in Great Britain and test for differential shifts in range margins during a period of warming (1994–2009).

Methods We modelled the population density of 80 species as a smooth function of latitude, longitude, elevation and year. Reference points on the distribution curve were used to describe latitudinal and elevational shifts.

Results Across species, poleward shifts in the leading range margin were greater than in the range-centre. The trailing range margin was largely static, providing evidence for significant range expansion. The magnitude of latitudinal range shift lagged behind the equivalent shift in temperature, suggesting that species may be accumulating a climatic debt. There was no evidence for consistent elevational shifts.

Conclusion Contrary to the generally expected long-term consequences of climate change of range contraction, we show that the short-term response to recent warming has been range expansion. This suggests the mechanisms of short-term and long-term consequences of climate change may differ.     

Temperature‐related geographical shifts among passerines: contrasting processes along poleward and equatorward range margins

Climate change is causing widespread geographical range shifts, which likely reflects different processes at leading and trailing range margins. Progressive warming is thought to relax thermal barriers at poleward range margins, enabling colonization of novel areas, but imposes increasingly unsuitable thermal conditions at equatorward margins, leading to range losses from those areas. Few tests of this process during recent climate change have been possible, but understanding determinants of species’ range limits will improve predictions of their geographical responses to climate change and variation in extinction risk. Here, we examine the relationship between poleward and equatorward range margin dynamics with respect to temperature‐related geographical limits observed for 34 breeding passerine species in North America between 1984–1988 and 2002–2006. We find that species’ equatorward range margins were closer to their upper realized thermal niche limits and proximity to those limits predicts equatorward population extinction risk through time. Conversely, the difference between breeding bird species’ poleward range margin temperatures and the coolest temperatures they tolerate elsewhere in their ranges was substantial and remained consistent through time: range expansion at species’ poleward range margins is unlikely to directly reflect lowered thermal barriers to colonization. The process of range expansion may reflect more complex factors operating across broader areas of species’ ranges. The latitudinal extent of breeding bird ranges is decreasing through time. Disparate responses observed at poleward versus equatorward margins arise due to differences in range margin placement within the realized thermal niche and suggest that climate‐induced geographical shift at equatorward range limits more strongly reflect abiotic conditions than at their poleward range limits. This further suggests that observed geographic responses to date may fail to demonstrate the true cost of climate change on the poleward portion of species’ distributions. Poleward range margins for North American breeding passerines are not presently in equilibrium with realized thermal limits.     

Informing conservation by identifying range shift patterns across breeding habitats and migration strategies

A species distribution combines the resources and climatic tolerances that allow an individual or population to persist. As these conditions change, one mechanism to maintain favorable resources is for an organism to shift its range. Much of the research examining range shifts has focused on dynamic distribution boundaries wheras the role of species breeding habitat or migration strategies on shift tendencies has received less attention. We expand on previous research by using a large suite of avian species (i.e., 277), analyzing observed abundance-weighted average latitudes, and categorizing species by breeding environment and migration strategy. We used the North American Breeding Bird Survey dataset to address two questions: (1) Has the center of observed abundance for individual species shifted latitudinally? (2) Is there a relationship between migration strategy or breeding habitat and range shifts? Results indicate the majority of species have experienced poleward range shifts over the last 43 years, and birds breeding in all habitat showed trends of poleward shift but only those species breeding in scrub-shrub and grassland environments were different from zero. Additionally, species that are short distance migrants are experiencing significant poleward shifts while Neotropical and permanent residents had shifts that were not different from zero. Our findings do support the general trend expected from climate driven changes (i.e., > 52 % shifting poleward), however, the proportion of species exhibiting equatorial shifts (24 %) or no significant shifts (23 %) illustrates the complex interplay between land cover, climate, species interactions, and other forces that can interact to influence breeding ranges over time. Regardless of the mechanisms driving range shifts, our findings emphasize the need for connecting and expanding habitats for those species experiencing range shifts. This research describes the patterns of breeding birds through central North America and we encourage future research to focus on the mechanisms driving these patterns.     

Integrating physiological threshold experiments with climate modeling to project mangrove species’ range expansion

Predictions of climate‐related shifts in species ranges have largely been based on correlative models. Due to limitations of these models, there is a need for more integration of experimental approaches when studying impacts of climate change on species distributions. Here, we used controlled experiments to identify physiological thresholds that control poleward range limits of three species of mangroves found in North America. We found that all three species exhibited a threshold response to extreme cold, but freeze tolerance thresholds varied among species. From these experiments, we developed a climate metric, freeze degree days (FDD), which incorporates both the intensity and the frequency of freezes. When included in distribution models, FDD accurately predicted mangrove presence/absence. Using 28 years of satellite imagery, we linked FDD to observed changes in mangrove abundance in Florida, further exemplifying the importance of extreme cold. We then used downscaled climate projections of FDD to project that these range limits will move northward by 2.2–3.2 km yr^?1 over the next 50 years.     

Ecological differentiation among key plant mutualists from a cryptic ant guild

As key dispersers of herbaceous seeds, Aphaenogaster ants strongly influence the distribution of woodland plants in eastern North America. Ants within this genus are difficult to distinguish and often are identified by subgroup, but emerging research suggests they occupy species-specific ecological niches. As such, distinct climatic requirements among Aphaenogaster spp. might result in transient plant interactions with climate change. We examine whether there are ecological and distributional differences among Aphaenogaster species that coincide with current taxonomic differentiations. We use occurrence records for six Aphaenogaster spp. that occur in deciduous forests in eastern North America. We associate the geographic patterning of species occurrence with temperature and precipitation data, and we examine whether unique climatic niches characterize each species. We then predict habitat suitability throughout eastern North America using species distribution models. For verification, we test how well the predicted ranges fit observed occurrences using novel data sets for each species. We find that Aphaenogaster species within this cryptic genus demonstrate unique ecological and geographic signatures. Each species within the subgroup generally responds differently to temperature, and somewhat differently to precipitation and seasonal variance, suggesting unique ecological niches for each species. Our results indicate that each ant species may respond uniquely to changes in climate. Such shifts could disrupt current community associations and biotic interactions with ant-dispersed plants.     

Directionality of recent bird distribution shifts and climate change in Great Britain

There is good evidence that species' distributions are shifting poleward in response to climate change and wide interest in the magnitude of such responses for scientific and conservation purposes. It has been suggested from the directions of climatic changes that species' distribution shifts may not be simply poleward, but this has been rarely tested with observed data. Here, we apply a novel approach to measuring range shifts on axes ranging through 360°, to recent data on the distributions of 122 species of British breeding birds during 1988–1991 and 2008–2011. Although previously documented poleward range shifts have continued, with an average 13.5 km shift northward, our analysis indicates this is an underestimate because it ignores common and larger shifts that occurred along axes oriented to the north‐west and north‐east. Trailing edges contracted from a broad range of southerly directions. Importantly, these results are derived from systematically collected data so confounding observer‐effort biases can be discounted. Analyses of climate for the same period show that whilst temperature trends should drive species along a north–north‐westerly trajectory, directional responses to precipitation will depend on both the time of year that is important for determining a species' distribution, and the location of the range margin. Directions of species' range centroid shift were not correlated with spatial trends in any single climate variable. We conclude that range shifts of British birds are multidirectional, individualistic and probably determined by species‐specific interactions of multiple climate factors. Climate change is predicted to lead to changes in community composition through variation in the rates that species' ranges shift; our results suggest communities could change further owing to constituent species shifting along different trajectories. We recommend more studies consider directionality in climate and range dynamics to produce more appropriate measures of observed and expected responses to climate change.     

Latitudinal shifts in the distribution of exploited fishes in Korean waters during the last 30 years: a consequence of climate change

Sea surface temperatures in Korean waters have increased by approximately 1 °C during the past 40 years, implying possible range shifts of marine fishes and invertebrates. We analyzed spatially explicit, commercial catch data for 12 major fish species collected from 1984 to 2010 in Korean waters to evaluate and project their range shifts based on climate-driven hydrographic changes simulated by a general circulation model under a climate change scenario. There were significant relationships between the mean latitude of the catch distribution and water temperature for seven of the 12 species examined. Our circulation model projected that temperature stratification in the Korea Strait will disappear by 2030, and our empirical relationships predicted that the ranges of five of the fish species examined will shift poleward by 19–71 km from the 2000s to the 2030s. Compared with studies of demersal fishes in the western North Atlantic and the North Sea, our estimated speeds of shift in mean latitude of fishes were, on average, slower by factors of 2.3 and 5.7, respectively. This suggests that the pattern of range shift of marine species can vary regionally, depending on oceanographic and geomorphologic conditions. International cooperative research among fisheries scientists from countries throughout the region, especially Japan and China, is required to more reliably and comprehensively assess and project the range shifts of fish species. This will provide a scientific basis for the development of fishery policies and their adaptation to climate change in the western North Pacific.     

Differential effects of past climate warming on mountain and flatland species distributions: a multispecies North American mammal assessment

Aim The magnitude of predicted range shifts during climate change is likely to be different for species living in mountainous environments compared with those living in flatland environments. The southern edges of ranges in mountain species may not shift northwards during warming as populations instead migrate up available elevational gradients; overall latitudinal range appears therefore to expand. In contrast, flatland species should shift range centroids northwards but not expand or contract their latitudinal range extent. These hypotheses were tested utilizing Late Pleistocene and modern occurrence data. Location North America. Methods The location and elevation of modern and Late Pleistocene species occurrences were collected from data bases for 26 species living in mountain or flatland environments. Regressions of elevation change over latitude, and southern and northern range edges were calculated for each species for modern and fossil data sets. A combination of regressions and anova s were used to test whether flatland species shift range edges and latitudinal extents more than mountain species do. Results Flatland species had significantly larger northward shifts at southern range edges than did mountain‐dwelling species from the Late Pleistocene to the present. There was also a significant negative correlation between the amount of change in the latitude of the southern edge of the range and the amount of elevational shifting from the Late Pleistocene to the present. Although significant, only c. 25% of the variance could be explained by this relationship. In addition, there was a weak indication that overall range expansion was less in flatland‐dwelling than in mountain‐dwelling species. Main conclusions The approach used here was to examine past species’ range responses to warming that occurred after the last ice ages as a means to better predict potential future responses to continued warming. The results confirm predictions of differential southern edge and overall range shifts for species occupying mountain and flatland regions in North America. The findings may be broadly applicable in other regions, thus allowing better modelling of future range and distribution related responses.     

Warming drives poleward range contractions of Beringian endemic plant species at high latitudes

Aim

Species are expected to disperse poleward in response to climate change. For species that are endemic to the high latitudes, this implies that many in the future would face a “no-where-to-go” situation as they are currently occupying the northernmost portion of the continent. Further, because endemism may arise from a combination of physical barriers, climate and geological history, the persistence of many species may require spatial matching of multiple environmental factors within a limited dispersal space. Thus, it is not clear how endemic species might spatially adjust their distributions in response to climate change and whether there are future climate change refugia for these species.

Location

Northwest North America.

Taxa

Plants.

Time Period

Current and the future (2040).

Methods

We used ensemble bioclimatic models to evaluate drivers and directional patterns of future change in the distributions of 66 North American Beringian and amphi-Beringian species currently occurring in Alaska and the Yukon. We explored the spatial pattern of species richness, losses and climate change refugia across the region.

Results

More than 80% of the species showed northward shifts in their latitudinal centroids under intermediate warming and are expected to shift their range northward by more than 140 km on average by 2040. Additionally, more than 60% were projected to experience range contractions and up to 20% of the species would have the potential to expand their ranges by more than 100%.

Main Conclusions

Suitable habitat for endemic species in northwest North America is expected to decline significantly, especially for species occupying the Arctic tundra. Although the models identified several potential refugia from future climate change, especially at high latitude and elevation, whether the species would be able to colonize new habitats on their own and/or capitalize sufficiently on in situ refugia remains a pertinent conservation question.     

Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: citizen science reveals effects of climate change

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3-6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.     

Diversity of birds in eastern North America shifts north with global warming

The distribution of diversity along latitudinal and elevation gradients, and the coupling of this phenomenon with climate, is a pattern long recognized in ecology. Hypothesizing that climate change may have altered this pattern over time, we investigated whether the aggregate of reported northward shifts of bird ranges in North America is now detectable in community‐level indices such as richness and diversity. Here, we report that bird diversity in North America increased and shifted northward between 1966 and 2010. This change in the relationship of diversity to the latitudinal gradient is primarily influenced by range expansions of species that winter in the eastern United States as opposed to species which migrate to this area from wintering grounds in the tropics. This increase in diversity and its northward expansion is best explained by an increase in regional prebreeding season temperature over the past 44 years.     

Moisture‐driven shift in the climate sensitivity of white spruce xylem anatomical traits is coupled to large‐scale oscillation patterns across northern treeline in northwest North America

Tree growth at northern treelines is generally temperature‐limited due to cold and short growing seasons. However, temperature‐induced drought stress was repeatedly reported for certain regions of the boreal forest in northwestern North America, provoked by a significant increase in temperature and possibly reinforced by a regime shift of the pacific decadal oscillation (PDO). The aim of this study is to better understand physiological growth reactions of white spruce, a dominant species of the North American boreal forest, to PDO regime shifts using quantitative wood anatomy and traditional tree‐ring width (TRW) analysis. We investigated white spruce growth at latitudinal treeline across a >1,000 km gradient in northwestern North America. Functionally important xylem anatomical traits (lumen area, cell‐wall thickness, cell number) and TRW were correlated with the drought‐sensitive standardized precipitation–evapotranspiration index of the growing season. Correlations were computed separately for complete phases of the PDO in the 20th century, representing alternating warm/dry (1925–1946), cool/wet (1947–1976) and again warm/dry (1977–1998) climate regimes. Xylem anatomical traits revealed water‐limiting conditions in both warm/dry PDO regimes, while no or spatially contrasting associations were found for the cool/wet regime, indicating a moisture‐driven shift in growth‐limiting factors between PDO periods. TRW reflected only the last shift of 1976/1977, suggesting different climate thresholds and a higher sensitivity to moisture availability of xylem anatomical traits compared to TRW. This high sensitivity of xylem anatomical traits permits to identify first signs of moisture‐driven growth in treeline white spruce at an early stage, suggesting quantitative wood anatomy being a powerful tool to study climate change effects in the northwestern North American treeline ecotone. Projected temperature increase might challenge growth performance of white spruce as a key component of the North American boreal forest biome in the future, when drier conditions are likely to occur with higher frequency and intensity.     

Energy gradients and the geographic distribution of local ant diversity

Geographical diversity gradients, even among local communities, can ultimately arise from geographical differences in speciation and extinction rates. We evaluated three models—energy-speciation, energy-abundance, and area—that predict how geographic trends in net diversification rates generate trends in diversity. We sampled 96 litter ant communities from four provinces: Australia, Madagascar, North America, and South America. The energy-speciation hypothesis best predicted ant species richness by accurately predicting the slope of the temperature diversity curve, and accounting for most of the variation in diversity. The communities showed a strong latitudinal gradient in species richness as well as inter-province differences in diversity. The former vanished in the temperature-diversity residuals, suggesting that the latitudinal gradient arises primarily from higher diversification rates in the tropics. However, inter-province differences in diversity persisted in those residuals—South American communities remained more diverse than those in North America and Australia even after the effects of temperature were removed.     

The latitudinal gradient of beta diversity in relation to climate and topography for mammals in North America

Aim Spatial turnover of species, or beta diversity, varies in relation to geographical distance and environmental conditions, as well as spatial scale. We evaluated the explanatory power of distance, climate and topography on beta diversity of mammalian faunas of North America in relation to latitude. Location North America north of Mexico. Methods The study area was divided into 313 equal‐area quadrats (241 × 241 km). Faunal data for all continental mammals were compiled for these quadrats, which were divided among five latitudinal zones. These zones were comparable in terms of latitudinal and longitudinal span, climatic gradients and elevational gradients. We used the natural logarithm of the Jaccard index (lnJ) to measure species turnover between pairs of quadrats within each latitudinal zone. The slope of lnJ in relation to distance was compared among latitudinal zones. We used partial regression to partition the variance in lnJ into the components uniquely explained by distance and by environmental differences, as well as jointly by distance and environmental differences. Results Mammalian faunas of North America differ more from each other at lower latitudes than at higher latitudes. Regression models of lnJ in relation to distance, climatic difference and topographic difference for each zone demonstrated that these variables have high explanatory power that diminishes with latitude. Beta diversity is higher for zones with higher mean annual temperature, lower seasonality of temperature and greater topographic complexity. For each latitudinal zone, distance and environmental differences explain a greater proportion of the variance in lnJ than distance, climate or topography does separately. Main conclusions The latitudinal gradient in beta diversity of North American mammals corresponds to a macroclimatic gradient of decreasing mean annual temperature and increasing seasonality of temperature from south to north. Most of the variance in spatial turnover is explained by distance and environmental differences jointly rather than distance, climate or topography separately. The high predictive power of geographical distance, climatic conditions and topography on spatial turnover could result from the direct effects of physical limiting factors or from ecological and evolutionary processes that are also influenced by the geographical template.     

Phenological response of sea turtles to environmental variation across a species' northern range

Variations in environmental parameters (e.g. temperature) that form part of global climate change have been associated with shifts in the timing of seasonal events for a broad range of organisms. Most studies evaluating such phenological shifts of individual taxa have focused on a limited number of locations, making it difficult to assess how such shifts vary regionally across a species range. Here, by using 1445 records of the date of first nesting for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at different breeding sites, on different continents and in different years across a broad latitudinal range (25–39° ′N), we demonstrate that the gradient of the relationship between temperature and the date of first breeding is steeper at higher latitudes, i.e. the phenological responses to temperature appear strongest at the poleward range limit. These findings support the hypothesis that biological changes in response to climate change will be most acute at the poleward range limits and are in accordance with the predictions of MacArthur''s hypothesis that poleward range limit for species range is environmentally limited. Our findings imply that the poleward populations of loggerheads are more sensitive to climate variations and thus they might display the impacts of climate change sooner and more prominently.     

Multidirectional abundance shifts among North American birds and the relative influence of multifaceted climate factors

Shifts in species distributions are major fingerprint of climate change. Examining changes in species abundance structures at a continental scale enables robust evaluation of climate change influences, but few studies have conducted these evaluations due to limited data and methodological constraints. In this study, we estimate temporal changes in abundance from North American Breeding Bird Survey data at the scale of physiographic strata to examine the relative influence of different components of climatic factors and evaluate the hypothesis that shifting species distributions are multidirectional in resident bird species in North America. We quantify the direction and velocity of the abundance shifts of 57 permanent resident birds over 44 years using a centroid analysis. For species with significant abundance shifts in the centroid analysis, we conduct a more intensive correlative analysis to identify climate components most strongly associated with composite change of abundance within strata. Our analysis focus on two contrasts: the relative importance of climate extremes vs. averages, and of temperature vs. precipitation in strength of association with abundance change. Our study shows that 36 species had significant abundance shifts over the study period. The average velocity of the centroid is 5.89 km·yr^?1. The shifted distance on average covers 259 km, 9% of range extent. Our results strongly suggest that the climate change fingerprint in studied avian distributions is multidirectional. Among 6 directions with significant abundance shifts, the northwestward shift was observed in the largest number of species (n = 13). The temperature/average climate model consistently has greater predictive ability than the precipitation/extreme climate model in explaining strata‐level abundance change. Our study shows heterogeneous avian responses to recent environmental changes. It highlights needs for more species‐specific approaches to examine contributing factors to recent distributional changes and for comprehensive conservation planning for climate change adaptation.     

Phylogenetic structure of angiosperm trees in local forest communities along latitudinal and elevational gradients in eastern North America

Latitudinal and elevational gradients both represent thermal gradients. Assessing the consistency of the relationships between phylogenetic structure and climate between latitudinal and elevational gradients can provide insight into the mechanisms driving assembly of species from regional pools into local assemblages. The aim of this study is to compare patterns of phylogenetic structure measures for angiosperm tree species between latitudinal and elevational gradients, using a dataset of angiosperm tree species in 14 092 forest plots in eastern North America. We assessed whether these two gradients produce similar relationships between climate and phylogenetic structure, hypothesizing that they should differ in magnitude but not direction. We used correlation and regression analyses to assess the relation of measures of phylogenetic structure to elevation, latitude and climatic variables, which included minimum temperature, temperature seasonality, annual precipitation and precipitation seasonality. We found that 1) phylogenetic relatedness of angiosperm trees increases with decreasing temperature along both latitudinal and elevational gradients but the relationship between phylogenetic relatedness and temperature is steeper for elevational gradients than for latitudinal gradients; 2) the tip-weighted metric of phylogenetic relatedness (nearest taxon index) is more strongly correlated with climatic variables than the basal-weighted metric of phylogenetic relatedness (net relatedness index); 3) winter cold temperature exerts a stronger effect on community assembly of angiosperm trees than does temperature seasonality. These results suggest that winter cold temperature, rather than temperature seasonality, drives phylogenetic structure of plants in local forest communities, and that species distributions along elevational gradients are more in equilibrium with temperature, compared with those along latitudinal gradients.     

Impacts of climate change on the global potential distribution of two notorious invasive crayfishes

1. Invasive alien species and climate change are two of the most serious global environmental threats. In particular, it is of great interest to understand how changing climates could impact the distribution of invaders that pose serious threats to ecosystems and human activities.
2. In this study, we developed ensemble species distribution models for predicting the current and future global distribution of the signal crayfish Pacifastacus leniusculus and the red swamp crayfish Procambarus clarkii, two of the most highly problematic invaders of freshwater ecosystems worldwide. We collected occurrence records of the species, from native and alien established ranges worldwide. These records in combination with averaged observations of current climatic conditions were used to calibrate a set of 10 distinct correlative models for estimating the climatic niche of each species. We next projected the estimated niches into the geographical space for the current climate conditions and for the 2050s and 2070s under representative concentration pathway 2.6 and 8.5 scenarios.
3. Our species distribution models had high predictive abilities and suggest that annual mean temperature is the main driver of the distribution of both species. Model predictions indicated that the two crayfish species have not fully occupied their suitable climates and will respond differently to future climate scenarios in different geographic regions. Suitable climate for P. leniusculus was predicted to shift poleward and to increase in extent in North America and Europe but decrease in Asia. Regions with suitable climate for P. clarkii are predicted to widen in Europe but contract in North America and Asia.
4. This study highlights that invasive species with different thermal preference are likely to respond differently to future climate changes. Our results provide important information for policy makers to design and implement anticipated measures for the prevention and control of these two problematic species.

     

Mangrove expansion and salt marsh decline at mangrove poleward limits

Mangroves are species of halophytic intertidal trees and shrubs derived from tropical genera and are likely delimited in latitudinal range by varying sensitivity to cold. There is now sufficient evidence that mangrove species have proliferated at or near their poleward limits on at least five continents over the past half century, at the expense of salt marsh. Avicennia is the most cold‐tolerant genus worldwide, and is the subject of most of the observed changes. Avicennia germinans has extended in range along the USA Atlantic coast and expanded into salt marsh as a consequence of lower frost frequency and intensity in the southern USA. The genus has also expanded into salt marsh at its southern limit in Peru, and on the Pacific coast of Mexico. Mangroves of several species have expanded in extent and replaced salt marsh where protected within mangrove reserves in Guangdong Province, China. In south‐eastern Australia, the expansion of Avicennia marina into salt marshes is now well documented, and Rhizophora stylosa has extended its range southward, while showing strong population growth within estuaries along its southern limits in northern New South Wales. Avicennia marina has extended its range southwards in South Africa. The changes are consistent with the poleward extension of temperature thresholds coincident with sea‐level rise, although the specific mechanism of range extension might be complicated by limitations on dispersal or other factors. The shift from salt marsh to mangrove dominance on subtropical and temperate shorelines has important implications for ecological structure, function, and global change adaptation.     

Potential distributional shifts in North America of allelopathic invasive plant species under climate change models

Predictive studies play a crucial role in the study of biological invasions of terrestrial plants under possible climate change scenarios. Invasive species are recognized for their ability to modify soil microbial communities and influence ecosystem dynamics. Here, we focused on six species of allelopathic flowering plants—Ailanthus altissima, Casuarina equisetifolia, Centaurea stoebe ssp. micranthos, Dioscorea bulbifera, Lantana camara, and Schinus terebinthifolia—that are invasive in North America and examined their potential to spread further during projected climate change. We used Species Distribution Models (SDMs) to predict future suitable areas for these species in North America under several proposed future climate models. ENMEval and Maxent were used to develop SDMs, estimate current distributions, and predict future areas of suitable climate for each species. Areas with the greatest predicted suitable climate in the future include the northeastern and the coastal northwestern regions of North America. Range size estimations demonstrate the possibility of extreme range loss for these invasives in the southeastern United States, while new areas may become suitable in the northeastern United States and southeastern Canada. These findings show an overall northward shift of suitable climate during the next few decades, given projected changes in temperature and precipitation. Our results can be utilized to analyze potential shifts in the distribution of these invasive species and may aid in the development of conservation and management plans to target and control dissemination in areas at higher risk for potential future invasion by these allelopathic species.