Modeling population viability of captive elephants in Myanmar (Burma): implications for wild populations

Captive Asian elephants Elephas maximus , used as work animals, constitute up to 22–30% of remaining Asian elephants. Myanmar has the largest captive population worldwide (∼6000), maintained at this level for over a century. We used published demographic data to assess the viability of this captive population. We tested how this population can be self-sustained, how many elephants must be supplemented from the wild to maintain it, and what consequences live capture may have for Myanmar's wild population. Our results demonstrate that the current captive population is not self-sustaining because mortality is too high and birth rates are too low. Our models also suggest ∼100 elephants year⁻¹ have been captured in the wild to supplement the captive population. Such supplementation cannot be supported by a wild population of fewer than 4000 elephants. Given the most recent expert estimate of ∼2000 wild elephants remaining in Myanmar, a harvest of 100 elephants year⁻¹ could result in extinction of the wild population in 31 years. Continued live capture threatens the survival of wild and captive populations and must stop. In addition, captive breeding should be increased. These measures are essential to slow the decline and extinction of all of Myanmar's elephants.     

Bottlenecks in large populations: the effect of immigration on population viability

We model a large population that is subject to successive short bottlenecks, in order to investigate the impact of different extents of immigration on the change in genetic load and on viability. A first simple genetic model uncovers the opposite effects of immigration on fitness according to the type of deleterious mutations considered: immigration increases fitness if the genetic load is comprised of mildly deleterious mutations, whereas it decreases fitness if it is comprised of lethals. When considering both types of mutations and adding explicit stochastic demographic considerations, in which bottlenecks are engendered by random catastrophes, the global impact of immigration on viability is dependent upon a balance between its opposite effects on the two components of the genetic load and on demographic stochasticity. In this context, immigration tends to increase the probability of extinction if occurring preferentially when population density is high, while it decreases extinction if occurring preferentially towards low-density populations.     

The impact of rapid evolution on population dynamics in the wild: experimental test of eco-evolutionary dynamics

Rapid evolution challenges the assumption that evolution is too slow to impact short-term ecological dynamics. This insight motivates the study of 'Eco-Evolutionary Dynamics' or how evolution and ecological processes reciprocally interact on short time scales. We tested how rapid evolution impacts concurrent population dynamics using an aphid (Myzus persicae) and an undomesticated host (Hirschfeldia incana) in replicated wild populations. We manipulated evolvability by creating non-evolving (single clone) and potentially evolving (two-clone) aphid populations that contained genetic variation in intrinsic growth rate. We observed significant evolution in two-clone populations whether or not they were exposed to predators and competitors. Evolving populations grew up to 42% faster and attained up to 67% higher density, compared with non-evolving control populations but only in treatments exposed to competitors and predators. Increased density also correlates with relative fitness of competing clones suggesting a full eco-evolutionary dynamic cycle defined as reciprocal interactions between evolution and density.     

The use of biomarkers in Daphnia magna toxicity testing. IV. Cellular Energy Allocation: a new methodology to assess the energy budget of toxicant-stressed Daphnia populations

The Cellular Energy Allocation (CEA) methodology wasdeveloped as biomarker technique to assess the effectof toxic stress on the energy budget of testorganisms. This short-term assay is based on thebiochemical assessment of changes in the energyreserves (total carbohydrate, protein and lipidcontent) and the energy consumption (electrontransport activity). The CEA methodology was evaluatedusing Daphnia magna juveniles exposed for 96hto sublethal lindane and mercury chlorideconcentrations. The ecological relevance of the CEAassay was assessed by comparing the sub-organismalresponse with population level parameters (obtainedfrom 21 day life table experiments) such as theintrinsic rate of natural increase (r_m) and themean total offspring per female. Two differentmethodologies were used to assess the effect levels:the no (lowest) observed effect level (NOAECs-LOAECs)approach and the regression-based approach. Bothtoxicants caused a significant decrease in the netenergy budget of D. magna, with a LowestObserved (Adverse) Effect Concentration (LOAEC) of0.18 mg/l and 5.6 µg/l for lindane andHgCl₂,respectively. Changes in the lipid content of theorganisms were detected at toxicant concentrationslower than those affecting the total carbohydrate andprotein content. Toxicant specific effects wereobserved on the electron transport activity.Comparison of the CEA results with those of thepopulation level tests revealed that for mercury theCEA based LOAEC was a three times lower than thatbased on r_m and the total brood size(18 µg/l). For lindane the CEA based LOAEC was twotimes lower than the LOAEC based on r_m(0.32 mg/l) but was higher than that based on thetotal number of offspring produced (0.1 mg/l).Using the regression-based approach, EC₁₀ valueswere calculated using three parameter sigmoid orlogistic models. Comparison between the CEA andr_m based EC₁₀ values demonstrates that forboth chemicals similar effect concentrations areobtained: the CEA-based EC₁₀ (0.20 mg/l) forlindane is 1.5 times higher than the r_m-basedEC₁₀ threshold (0.13 mg/l), while for mercury thebiomarker-based EC₁₀ value (9 µg/l) was 1.4times lower than the population-based EC₁₀ value(12.5 µg/l).From these results, we suggest that the short-term CEAassay may be useful for predicting long-term effectsat the population level. The consequences of theobserved effects on the energy budget of the testorganism are discussed in the context of the effectsemerging at the population and community level.