外来入侵物种的风险评估定量模型及应用

预防生物入侵的一个重要手段是对外来物种进行风险评估,应用模型则是定量评估的必备方法。本文简述了常用的适生性风险评估模型,概述了诸如遗传算法、模糊包络模型、自组织特征映射网络等较新的理论方法,它们使用环境变量和物种实际分布数据,利用不同的机理模型预测物种潜在分布区。本文还综述了适用于研究物种扩散性的模型,积分差分方程模型可以模拟物种扩散行为,元胞自动机模型可以揭示种间竞争关系,景观中性模型大多用于种群动态等生态过程的研究。     

A critical assessment of two species distribution models: a case study of the vervet monkey (Cercopithecus aethiops)

Aim Species distribution models are invaluable tools in biogeographical, ecological and applied biological research, but specific concerns have been raised in relation to different modelling techniques in terms of their validity. Here we compare two fundamentally different approaches to species distribution modelling, one based on simple occurrence data where the lack of an ecological framework has been criticized, and the other firmly based in socio‐ecological theory but requiring highly detailed behavioural information that is often limited in availability. Location (Sub‐Saharan) Africa. Methods We used two distinct techniques to predict the realized distribution of a model species, the vervet monkey (Cercopithecus aethiops Linnaeus, 1758). A maximum entropy model was produced taking 13 environmental variables and presence‐only data from 174 sites throughout Africa as input, with an additional 58 sites retained to test the model. A time‐budget model considering the same environmental variables was constructed from detailed behavioural data on 20 groups representing 14 populations, with presence‐only data from the remaining 218 sites reserved to test model predictions on vervet monkey occurrence. Both models were further validated against a reference species distribution map as drawn up by the African Mammals Databank. Results Both models performed well, with the time budget and maximum entropy algorithms correctly predicting vervet monkey presence at 78.4% and 91.4% of their respective test sites. Similarly, the time‐budget model correctly predicted presence and absence at 87.4% of map pixels against the reference distribution map, and the maximum entropy model achieved a success rate of 81.8%. Finally, there was a high level of agreement (81.6%) between the presence–absence maps produced by the two models, and the environmental variables identified as most strongly driving vervet monkey distribution were the same in both models. Main conclusions The time‐budget and maximum entropy models produced accurate and remarkably similar species distribution maps, despite fundamental differences in their conceptual and methodological approaches. Such strong convergence not only provides support for the credibility of current results, but also relieves concerns about the validity of the two modelling approaches.     

Predicting invasion risk of 16 species of eucalypts using a risk assessment protocol developed for Brazil

Risk analyses are predictive systems designed to detect the risk of invasion by non‐native species. Although eucalypts are often considered moderately invasive given the extent of cultivation on a global scale, some species are widely recognized as invasive for transforming and impacting natural areas in several countries. These problems may be due to propagule pressure derived from human interest in forest production and aesthetic values. Risk analyses were carried out for 16 eucalypt species cultivated in Brazil using a protocol adapted from an Australian model to Brazilian conditions. The species were: Corymbia citriodora, Corymbia maculata, Corymbia torelliana, Eucalyptus benthamii, Eucalyptus brassiana, Eucalyptus camaldulensis, Eucalyptus cloeziana, Eucalyptus dunnii, Eucalyptus globulus, Eucalyptus grandis, Eucalyptus pellita, Eucalyptus robusta, Eucalyptus saligna, Eucalyptus tereticornis, Eucalyptus urophylla and Eucalyptus viminalis. Results indicate high risk for seven species, moderate risk for eight species and low risk for one species. The only low risk species is E. dunnii, while the highest risk scores refer to C. torelliana, E. tereticornis and E. grandis. These results are consistent with the history of invasion of the species around the world and should be considered for plantations especially when investment capacity to prevent and permanently control spread is low or not associated with forest certification standards. Risk analysis is a valid tool for discriminating between species and making decisions on species to be introduced or cultivated. The results of this study show that there are many species that can be cultivated without incurring biological invasions.     

New method for the detection of reactive oxygen species in anti-tumoural activity of adriamycin: A comparison between hypoxic and normoxic cells

Tumour hypoxia plays a role in chemoresistance in several human tumours. However, how hyperbaric oxygen leads to chemotherapeutic gain is unclear. This study investigates the relation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation with anti-tumoural effect of adriamycin (ADR) on CCRF-CEM cells under hypoxic (2% O₂) and normoxic (21% O₂) conditions. A new method was used to measure intracellular ROS variations through the fluorescence lifetime of 1-pyrenebutyric acid. At 24 h, ADR, probably via semiquinone radical, enhances ROS levels in normoxic cells compared to hypoxic cells. Long-term studies show that ROS are also generated by a second mechanism related to cell functions perturbation. ADR arrests the cell cycle progression both under hypoxia and normoxia, indicating that oxygen and ROS does not influence the DNA damaging activity of ADR. The findings reveal that moderate improvement of ADR cytotoxicity results from higher ROS formation in normoxic cells, leading to elevated induction of cell death.     

New method for the detection of reactive oxygen species in anti-tumoural activity of adriamycin: a comparison between hypoxic and normoxic cells

Tumour hypoxia plays a role in chemoresistance in several human tumours. However, how hyperbaric oxygen leads to chemotherapeutic gain is unclear. This study investigates the relation of reactive oxygen species (ROS) generation with anti-tumoural effect of adriamycin (ADR) on CCRF-CEM cells under hypoxic (2% O₂) and normoxic (21% O₂) conditions. A new method was used to measure intracellular ROS variations through the fluorescence lifetime of 1-pyrenebutyric acid. At 24 h, ADR, probably via semiquinone radical, enhances ROS levels in normoxic cells compared to hypoxic cells. Long-term studies show that ROS are also generated by a second mechanism related to cell functions perturbation. ADR arrests the cell cycle progression both under hypoxia and normoxia, indicating that oxygen and ROS does not influence the DNA damaging activity of ADR. The findings reveal that moderate improvement of ADR cytotoxicity results from higher ROS formation in normoxic cells, leading to elevated induction of cell death.     

PSDS 2.0: 一个基于GIS和多个模型的生物潜在分布地预测系统

根据对生物分布地预测模型和软件发展现状的分析和总结, 本研究在PSDS 1.0的基础上提出并实现一个基于GIS且具有多个代表性模型的生物分布地预测系统(PSDS 2.0)。PSDS 2.0系统继承了1.0的环境包络和聚类包络模型, 进一步引入了限制因子包络、马氏距离、支持向量机等新模型, 并针对本领域中模型比较与选择的难点增加了迭代交叉验证的多模型选择功能。系统还实现了灵活定制和评估伪负样本的功能, 通过用只需要正样本的I类模型预测的结果对随机产生的伪负样本进行评估, 减小其落入适宜地区的概率, 进一步提高需要正负样本的II类模型的准确率。GIS功能在PSDS 2.0中也得到加强, 被应用于数据准备及结果分析等重要环节。文章最后以白冠长尾雉(Syrmaticus reevesii)为例, 运用PSDS 2.0系统预测其在中国范围内的潜在分布地, 并对各种模型的预测结果进行评估和比较。     

Addressing a critique of the TEASI framework for invasive species risk assessment

We address criticism that the Transport, Establishment, Abundance, Spread, Impact (TEASI) framework does not facilitate objective mapping of risk assessment methods nor defines best practice. We explain why TEASI is appropriate for mapping, despite inherent challenges, and how TEASI offers considerations for best practices, rather than suggesting one best practice.     

Splenic lymphocytes of adult Xenopus respond differentially to PMA in vitro by either dying or dividing: significance for cancer resistance in this species

Wild-type populations of amphibians, unlike mammalians, appear to be resistant to spontaneous and chemically induced neoplasms. Few true cancers have been reported for non-isogeneic members of Xenopus laevis, despite their widespread use in laboratories around the world. Injection of even the most powerful direct mammalian oncogens e.g. N-methyl N-nitrosourea, that depleted specific populations of T lymphocytes, did not induce cancer. Phorbol diesters, e.g. PMA, are mitogens and apoptogens in both amphibian, and mammalian immunocytes. In mammalian cells, regulation of the cell cycle and of apoptosis are often intimately linked, however, a disjunction in time between early apoptosis and later cell cycling, has been observed with PMA-treated Xenopus splenocytes. Thus, a particular difference between amphibians and mammals may be the requirement to enter the cell cycle before a progression to death by apoptosis. This hypothesis was tested here using dual staining flow cytometry. Xenopus laevis splenocytes were cultured for 8, 24 and 48 hours with phorbol 12-myristate 13-acetate (PMA), previously shown to be mitogenic and apoptotic with mature Xenopus lymphocytes. The cells were stained with FITC-conjugated Annexin V or with FITC-labeled deoxyuridine triphosphates (FITC-dUTP) to assay for the apoptotic markers phosphotidylserine or DNA strand breaks respectively. Phycoerythrin (PE)-conjugated anti-human proliferating cell nuclear antigen (PE-PCNA) was used as a cell cycle marker that is present during the entire cell cycle. Propidium iodide (PI) binds DNA and was used to assay for late stage apoptosis, as well as to assess DNA content.Significantly higher levels of apoptosis develop rapidly in PMA-exposed splenocytes and are maintained at 24 hours, declining by 48 hours. Cells expressing PCNA or incorporating PI in excess of the normal genomic level were found by 48 hours following PMA exposure. The absence of any significant rise in a small (<5%) dual staining cell population indicates that the apoptotic cell population remained distinct from cells already in the cell cycle from the onset of PMA exposure. Thus, Xenopus splenocytes respond differentially to PMA. Those that undergo apoptosis rapidly were quiescent, non-cycling small lymphocytes. Moreover, the cells that eventually begin division, following PMA exposure, were unaffected by the early apoptois and do not themselves die while in the cell cycle. The rapid apoptotic response of X. laevis cells to PMA may confer a natural cancer resistance in this species, as cells that fail to enter the cell cycle after exposure to cancer promoting reagents cannot express genetic destabilization that might have led to transformation.     

Quantitative assessment of species identification in aerial transect surveys for ice‐associated seals

Technological advances have facilitated collection of vast quantities of photographic data from aerial surveys of marine mammals. However, when it is difficult to distinguish species from a distance, reliable identification from aerial images can often be challenging. This is the case for ice‐associated seals, species for which global climate change has motivated intensive monitoring efforts in recent years. We assess species and age class identification from aerial images of four ice seal species (bearded seals, Erignathus barbatus; ribbon seals, Histriophoca fasciata; ringed seals, Pusa hispida; spotted seals, Phoca largha) in the Bering Sea. We also investigate the specific phenomenological and behavioral traits commonly associated with species identification and observer confidence. We generally found species and age class misidentification occurred at relatively low levels, but only 83% of spotted seals tended to be correctly identified (with 11% mistaken as ribbon seals). We also found certain traits were strong predictors for observed species, age class, or observer confidence. Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that species misidentification is pervasive in passive sampling of animal populations. Even low levels of misidentification have been demonstrated to induce substantial biases in estimators of species distribution and abundance, and it is important that statistical models account for such errors.     

Mixed company: a framework for understanding the composition and organization of mixed‐species animal groups

Mixed‐species animal groups (MSGs) are widely acknowledged to increase predator avoidance and foraging efficiency, among other benefits, and thereby increase participants' fitness. Diversity in MSG composition ranges from two to 70 species of very similar or completely different phenotypes. Yet consistency in organization is also observable in that one or a few species usually have disproportionate importance for MSG formation and/or maintenance. We propose a two‐dimensional framework for understanding this diversity and consistency, concentrating on the types of interactions possible between two individuals, usually of different species. One axis represents the similarity of benefit types traded between the individuals, while the second axis expresses asymmetry in the relative amount of benefits/costs accrued. Considering benefit types, one extreme represents the case of single‐species groups wherein all individuals obtain the same supplementary, group‐size‐related benefits, and the other extreme comprises associations of very different, but complementary species (e.g. one partner creates access to food while the other provides vigilance). The relevance of social information and the matching of activities (e.g. speed of movement) are highest for relationships on the supplementary side of this axis, but so is competition; relationships between species will occur at points along this gradient where the benefits outweigh the costs. Considering benefit amounts given or received, extreme asymmetry occurs when one species is exclusively a benefit provider and the other a benefit user. Within this parameter space, some MSG systems are constrained to one kind of interaction, such as shoals of fish of similar species or leader–follower interactions in fish and other taxa. Other MSGs, such as terrestrial bird flocks, can simultaneously include a variety of supplementary and complementary interactions. We review the benefits that species obtain across the diversity of MSG types, and argue that the degree and nature of asymmetry between benefit providers and users should be measured and not just assumed. We then discuss evolutionary shifts in MSG types, focusing on drivers towards similarity in group composition, and selection on benefit providers to enhance the benefits they can receive from other species. Finally, we conclude by considering how individual and collective behaviour in MSGs may influence both the structure and processes of communities.     

Evolution of aging: individual life history trade‐offs and population heterogeneity account for mortality patterns across species

A broad range of mortality patterns has been documented across species, some even including decreasing mortality over age. Whether there exist a common denominator to explain both similarities and differences in these mortality patterns remains an open question. The disposable soma theory, an evolutionary theory of aging, proposes that universal intracellular trade‐offs between maintenance/lifespan and reproduction would drive aging across species. The disposable soma theory has provided numerous insights concerning aging processes in single individuals. Yet, which specific population mortality patterns it can lead to is still largely unexplored. In this article, we propose a model exploring the mortality patterns which emerge from an evolutionary process including only the disposable soma theory core principles. We adapt a well‐known model of genomic evolution to show that mortality curves producing a kink or mid‐life plateaus derive from a common minimal evolutionary framework. These mortality shapes qualitatively correspond to those of Drosophila melanogaster, Caenorhabditis elegans, medflies, yeasts and humans. Species evolved in silico especially differ in their population diversity of maintenance strategies, which itself emerges as an adaptation to the environment over generations. Based on this integrative framework, we also derive predictions and interpretations concerning the effects of diet changes and heat‐shock treatments on mortality patterns.     

Selecting non-target species for risk assessment of entomophagous biological control agents: Evaluation of the PRONTI decision-support tool

The release of entomophagous biological control agents can pose risks to non-target invertebrate species in the release area and beyond. Pre-release risk assessment of these agents often involves tests with non-target species; however, selecting appropriate test species can be difficult when there is a large number to choose from. The PRONTI (priority ranking of non-target invertebrates) tool has been developed to aid this selection process. This automated tool prioritises species for testing using five criteria: (1) direct and indirect hazards posed by the agent, (2) likelihood of exposure to the hazards, (3) ecological impacts that may result from that exposure, (4) species’ anthropocentric value and (5) testability. Criteria (1) and (2) produce a risk estimate that drives the ranking process. In a test of PRONTI’s ability to identify non-target species at most risk from a proposed biological control agent, we used a generalist predator already present in New Zealand, the Asian paper wasp Polistes chinensis, as if it were the agent in a hypothetical biocontrol programme aimed at lepidopteran pests in New Zealand kiwifruit orchards. A ranked list of 340 invertebrate taxa known to occur in kiwifruit orchards was produced. To validate the risk estimates for a direct attack by P. chinensis on each taxon, wasps were introduced to kiwifruit orchards and prey taxa identified. Risk estimates were accurate except where identified prey taxa had not previously been recorded from kiwifruit orchards.     

Climate controls the distribution of a widespread invasive species: implications for future range expansion

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Trait‐based risk assessment for invasive species: high performance across diverse taxonomic groups,geographic ranges and machine learning/statistical tools

Aim Trait‐based risk assessment for invasive species is becoming an important tool for identifying non‐indigenous species that are likely to cause harm. Despite this, concerns remain that the invasion process is too complex for accurate predictions to be made. Our goal was to test risk assessment performance across a range of taxonomic and geographical scales, at different points in the invasion process, with a range of statistical and machine learning algorithms. Location Regional to global data sets. Methods We selected six data sets differing in size, geography and taxonomic scope. For each data set, we created seven risk assessment tools using a range of statistical and machine learning algorithms. Performance of tools was compared to determine the effects of data set size and scale, the algorithm used, and to determine overall performance of the trait‐based risk assessment approach. Results Risk assessment tools with good performance were generated for all data sets. Random forests (RF) and logistic regression (LR) consistently produced tools with high performance. Other algorithms had varied performance. Despite their greater power and flexibility, machine learning algorithms did not systematically outperform statistical algorithms. Geographic scope of the data set, and size of the data set, did not systematically affect risk assessment performance. Main conclusions Across six representative data sets, we were able to create risk assessment tools with high performance. Additional data sets could be generated for other taxonomic groups and regions, and these could support efforts to prevent the arrival of new invaders. Random forests and LR approaches performed well for all data sets and could be used as a standard approach to risk assessment development.     

Evaluating the resolution power of new microsatellites for species identification and stock delimitation in the Cape hakes Merluccius paradoxus and Merluccius capensis (Teleostei: Merlucciidae)

The utility of 15 new and 17 previously published microsatellite markers was evaluated for species identification and stock delimitation in the deep‐water hake Merluccius paradoxus and the shallow‐water hake Merluccius capensis. A total of 14 microsatellites were polymorphic in M. paradoxus and 10 in M. capensis. Two markers could individually discriminate the species using Bayesian clustering methods and a statistical power analysis showed that the set of markers for each species is likely to detect subtle genetic differentiation (F_ST < 0·006) that will be valuable to delimit and characterize genetic stocks.     

Exploring tree species colonization potentials using a spatially explicit simulation model: implications for four oaks under climate change

Climate change impacts tree species differentially by exerting unique pressures and altering their suitable habitats. We previously predicted these changes in suitable habitat for current and future climates using a species habitat model (DISTRIB) in the eastern United States. Based on the accuracy of the model, the species assemblages should eventually reflect the new quasi‐equilibrium suitable habitats (~2100) after accounting for the lag in colonization. However, it is an open question if and when these newly suitable habitats will be colonized under current fragmented landscapes and realistic migration rates. To evaluate this, we used a spatially explicit cell‐based model (SHIFT) that estimates colonization potentials under current fragmented habitats and several estimates of historical migration rates at a 1 km resolution. Computation time, which was previously the biggest constraint, was overcome by a novel application of convolution and Fast Fourier Transforms. SHIFT outputs, when intersected with future suitable habitats predicted by DISTRIB, allow assessment of colonization potential under future climates. In this article, we show how our approach can be used to screen multiple tree species for their colonization potentials under climate change. In particular, we use the DISTRIB and SHIFT models in combination to assess if the future dominant forest types in the north will really be dominated by oaks, as modelled via DISTRIB. Even under optimistic scenarios, we conclude that only a small fraction of the suitable habitats of oaks predicted by DISTRIB is likely to be occupied within 100 years, and this will be concentrated in the first 10–20 km from the current boundary. We also show how DISTRIB and SHIFT can be used to evaluate the potential for assisted migration of vulnerable tree species, and discuss the dynamics of colonization at range limits.