To catch or to sight? A comparison of demographic parameter estimates obtained from mark-recapture and mark-resight models

Accurate assessments of population parameters, such as survival and abundance, are critical for effective wildlife conservation. In order for wildlife managers to undertake long-term monitoring of populations, the data collection must be as cost-effective as possible. Two demographic modelling techniques commonly used are mark-recapture and mark-resight. Mark-resight can be used in conjunction with biotelemetry methods and offers a more cost effective alternative to the traditional mark-recapture models. However, there has been no empirical comparison of the demographic parameters obtained from the two modelling techniques. This study used photographs of natural markings to individually identify wobbegong sharks (Orectolobus maculatus) sighted during underwater surveys over a 2 year period, during eight distinct sampling periods, and analysed with Pollock’s robust design mark-recapture models. These estimates were then compared, using z tests, with Poisson-lognormal mark-resight models that used resightings of sharks previously tagged with telemetry transmitters, and the telemetry data to calculate the number of marked animals present in each sampling period. Sharks were categorised into four groups according to their sex and age-class (adult/juvenile). The results indicated that there was a high degree of transience in the population, with 62 % of sharks only being sighted in one sampling period. Based on normalized Akaike weights, there was no single ‘best’ model for either type of modelling technique and model averaging was used to determine the demographic estimates. Both models showed higher abundance of wobbegongs in the austral spring and summer seasons, however, the models produced statistically different results for five of the eight sampling periods. The mark-recapture model estimated apparent survival between 78 and 95 %, whereas the mark-resight models estimated it between 48 and 97 %. Crucially, there was no statistical difference between the survival estimates from corresponding sex/age-class. The temporary emigration parameters differed substantially between the model types. The mark-recapture model showed support for Markovian movement, whereas the mark-resight supported random emigration. The timing of the tagging events likely biased the abundance and temporary emigration parameters estimated by mark-resight models and must be taken into consideration when designing a mark-resight study. Despite this, this study shows that robust demographic estimates, that are comparable to labour intensive mark-recapture estimates, can still be obtained using mark-resight methods. Given the substantial increase in biotelemetry studies of medium and large sized vertebrates, mark-resight models may play an important future role in estimating demographic parameters.     

Effects of color banding, radio tagging, and repeated handling on the condition and survival of Lapwing chicks and consequences for estimates of breeding productivity

ABSTRACT.   Color bands and radio tags are widely used to facilitate individual recognition and relocation of precocial chicks in studies of prefledging survival. However, the accuracy of data collected and subsequent estimates of survival rates rely on the assumption that such techniques do not affect the parameters under study. We compared the body condition and survival of color-banded and radio-tagged Lapwing ( Vanellus vanellus ) chicks with noncolor-banded and nonradio-tagged individuals using a 10-year dataset ( N = 3174 chicks, with 205 color banded and 700 radio tagged). Color bands did not adversely affect chicks. However, radio-tagged chicks and their untagged broodmates were handled more frequently because these broods were more readily encountered than those without a tagged member. Chicks disturbed and handled more frequently had lower body condition indices and higher mortality rates. Simulations of the impact of tagging and handling on breeding productivity under two scenarios indicated a 26% reduction in productivity in situations where nest and chick survival rates were low (as in our study), but only a 7% reduction in productivity for a simulated population with the higher levels of nest and chick survival associated with a stable population. The frequent disturbance associated with radio-tracking and recapturing chicks, rather than the attachment of a tag or physical handling of chicks, may affect body condition. Frequent handling and disturbance may affect body condition by reducing foraging time, increasing stress levels, or increasing predation risk. Because our results suggested that the negative impact of handling could last up to a week, we recommend that investigators avoid disturbance of shorebird chicks more frequently than every 8 d.     

Primates and Cameras

Field-based primate studies often make population inferences using count-based indices (e.g., individuals/plot) or distance sampling; the first does not account for the probability of detection and thus can be biased, while the second requires large sample sizes to obtain precise estimates, which is difficult for many primate studies. We discuss photographic sampling and occupancy modeling to correct for imperfect detection when estimating system states and dynamics at the landscape level, specifically in relation to primate ecology. We highlight the flexibility of the occupancy framework and its many applications to studying low-density primate populations or species that are difficult to detect. We discuss relevant sampling and estimation procedures with special attention to data collection via photographic sampling. To provide tangible meaning to terminology and clarify subtleties, we use illustrative examples. Photographic sampling can have many advantages over observer-based sampling, especially when studying rare or elusive species. Combining photographic sampling with an occupancy framework allows inference to larger scales than is common in primate studies, addresses uncertainty due to the observation process, and allows researchers to examine questions of how landscape-level anthropogenic changes affect primate distributions.     

Estimating Survival for Elusive Juvenile Pond-Breeding Salamanders

Juvenile vital rates have important effects on population dynamics for many species, but this demographic is often difficult to locate and track. As such, we frequently lack reliable estimates of juvenile survival, which are necessary for accurately assessing population stability and potential management approaches to conserve biodiversity. We estimated survival rates for elusive juveniles of 3 species, the ringed salamander (Ambystoma annulatum), spotted salamander (A. maculatum), and small-mouthed salamander (A. texanum), using 2 approaches. First, we conducted an 11-month (2016–2017) mark-recapture study within semi-natural enclosures and used Bayesian Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to estimate survival and recapture probabilities. Second, we inferred the expected annual juvenile survival rate given published vital rates for pre-metamorphic and adult ambystomatids assuming stable population growth. For all 3 species, juvenile survival probabilities were constant across recapture occasions, whereas recapture probability estimates were time-dependent. Further, survival and recapture probabilities among study species were similar. Post-study sampling revealed that the initial study period median estimate of annual survival probability (0.39) underestimated the number of salamanders known alive at 11 months. We therefore appended approximately 1 year of opportunistic data, which produced a median annual survival probability of 0.50, encompassing salamanders that we knew to have been alive. Calculation from literature values suggested a mean annual terrestrial juvenile ambystomatid survival probability of 0.49. Similar results among our approaches indicated that juvenile survival estimates for the study species were robust and likely comparable to rates in nature. These estimates can now be confidently applied to research, monitoring, and management efforts for the study species and ecologically similar taxa. Our findings indicated that similarly robust vital rate estimates for subsets of ecologically and phylogenetically similar species can provide reasonable surrogate demographic information that can be used to reveal key factors influencing population viability for data-deficient species. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Northern Bobwhite Chick Survival and Effects of Weather

Reliable vital rates for all life stages are necessary to identify limiting factors in wildlife populations and inform sound wildlife management. The difficulty associated with capturing and tagging precocial young, such as northern bobwhite chicks (Colinus virginianus), and linking variation in recruitment to ecological conditions has contributed to significant knowledge gaps in their population ecology. During 1999–2017, we captured and patagial-tagged ≤12-day-old bobwhite chicks (n = 3,576) and estimated their survival from time of capture (Jun–Sep) to fall and winter (Nov and Jan) recapture and winter (Feb) recovery. We used Burnham's model implemented in Program MARK to integrate mark-recapture and dead-recovery (via harvest) data to estimate survival for the 19-year study. By including weather covariates, we also evaluated explicit hypotheses related to temperature and precipitation effects on chick survival. We found inter-annual, intra-annual, and intra-seasonal variation in chick survival with an average annual daily survival estimate of 0.9887 (95% CI = 0.9321, 0.9918). Precipitation amount and number of precipitation (>0.635 cm) events during the first 4 weeks post-tagging decreased the daily survival rate of chicks curvilinearly. Average minimum daily temperature and maximum daily temperature effects on survival were negligible, but an interaction between minimum temperature and cumulative precipitation during the first 14 days post-tagging affected survival. We recommend population modelers incorporate intra- and inter-annual variation in chick survival to improve predictions. Observed variation in chick survival rates portends a significant opportunity to improve population management for bobwhites and other game birds. © 2019 The Wildlife Society     

Mark-recapture analysis of a known population

Problems involved with demonstrating mark-recapture techniques in ecology classes are discussed. An exercise which overcomes most of these difficulties using a known, restricted population of people is described. Jolly-Seber estimates of the size of this population varied in precision and accuracy with method and intensity of sampling, more or less as predicted. The assumptions inherent in the use of this model were met fairly closely. As the Jolly-Seber analysis indicated little dilution of or loss from the population, a more restricted estimating procedure (Schnabel) was also attempted, yielding slight gain in accuracy and precision. Suggestions for further improvements and refinements of this exercise are made.     

Mark-Recapture and Mark-Resight Methods for Estimating Abundance with Remote Cameras: A Carnivore Case Study

Abundance estimation of carnivore populations is difficult and has prompted the use of non-invasive detection methods, such as remotely-triggered cameras, to collect data. To analyze photo data, studies focusing on carnivores with unique pelage patterns have utilized a mark-recapture framework and studies of carnivores without unique pelage patterns have used a mark-resight framework. We compared mark-resight and mark-recapture estimation methods to estimate bobcat (Lynx rufus) population sizes, which motivated the development of a new "hybrid" mark-resight model as an alternative to traditional methods. We deployed a sampling grid of 30 cameras throughout the urban southern California study area. Additionally, we physically captured and marked a subset of the bobcat population with GPS telemetry collars. Since we could identify individual bobcats with photos of unique pelage patterns and a subset of the population was physically marked, we were able to use traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight methods, as well as the new “hybrid” mark-resight model we developed to estimate bobcat abundance. We recorded 109 bobcat photos during 4,669 camera nights and physically marked 27 bobcats with GPS telemetry collars. Abundance estimates produced by the traditional mark-recapture, traditional mark-resight, and “hybrid” mark-resight methods were similar, however precision differed depending on the models used. Traditional mark-recapture and mark-resight estimates were relatively imprecise with percent confidence interval lengths exceeding 100% of point estimates. Hybrid mark-resight models produced better precision with percent confidence intervals not exceeding 57%. The increased precision of the hybrid mark-resight method stems from utilizing the complete encounter histories of physically marked individuals (including those never detected by a camera trap) and the encounter histories of naturally marked individuals detected at camera traps. This new estimator may be particularly useful for estimating abundance of uniquely identifiable species that are difficult to sample using camera traps alone.     

Effect of sampling interval and temperature on the accuracy of food consumption estimates from stomach contents

The effect of temperature and sampling interval on the accuracy of food consumption estimates based on stomach contents was studied using simulation. Three temporal patterns of feeding were considered (scattered throughout the day, one 5 h period or two 5 h periods) and gastric evacuation was modelled according to published values. Sampling intervals of 3 h gave reasonable food consumption estimates (2 to 19% error) at all temperatures. Comparably, sampling intervals as large as 12 h gave reasonable estimates of food consumption (1 to 20% error) when temperature was set to ≤10° C. At temperatures <5° C, even 24 h intervals (equivalent to one daily sampling) provided reasonable estimates of daily food consumption (2 to 19% error) for all but the highest gastric evacuation rate combined with one daily feeding period (47% error). The temperature effect on estimation error resulted from diminishing temporal fluctuations in stomach contents with slower gastric evacuation rates. It follows that sampling effort may be considerably minimized when estimating food consumption from stomach contents during periods with low temperatures such as the winter time experienced by temperate fishes.     

Challenges of DNA-Based Mark-Recapture Studies of American Black Bears

Abstract: We explored whether genetic sampling would be feasible to provide a region-wide population estimate for American black bears (Ursus americanus) in the southern Appalachians, USA. Specifically, we determined whether adequate capture probabilities (p > 0.20) and population estimates with a low coefficient of variation (CV < 20%) could be achieved given typical agency budget and personnel constraints. We extracted DNA from hair collected from baited barbed-wire enclosures sampled over a 10-week period on 2 study areas: a high-density black bear population in a portion of Great Smoky Mountains National Park and a lower density population on National Forest lands in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Georgia. We identified individual bears by their unique genotypes obtained from 9 microsatellite loci. We sampled 129 and 60 different bears in the National Park and National Forest study areas, respectively, and applied closed mark-recapture models to estimate population abundance. Capture probabilities and precision of the population estimates were acceptable only for sampling scenarios for which we pooled weekly sampling periods. We detected capture heterogeneity biases, probably because of inadequate spatial coverage by the hair-trapping grid. The logistical challenges of establishing and checking a sufficiently high density of hair traps make DNA-based estimates of black bears impractical for the southern Appalachian region. Alternatives are to estimate population size for smaller areas, estimate population growth rates or survival using mark-recapture methods, or use independent marking and recapturing techniques to reduce capture heterogeneity.     

Estimation of survival rates in haematophagous insects

Estimation of the survival rate through a gonotrophic cycle is an important factor in determining the vectorial capacity of a population of haematophagous insects in a disease cycle. Most methods used to calculate survival rates make stringent assumptions which may not be valid for all species. Birley and colleagues used a time series analysis of samples collected over several consecutive days, the lagged parous rate. Here, we use a simulation model to investigate (i) the length of data series needed and (ii) the consequences of failures in the assumptions of this method for the estimated survival rate. The accuracy of the estimated survival rate per cycle was high with sample periods of 10-100 days. The standard deviation (a measure of precision) decreased with the length of the sample period. When random sampling efficiency was included, the accuracy remained high but the estimates were less precise (larger standard deviations). If the sampling was biased in favour of either nulliparous or parous females, estimates of the survival rate were not accurate. The relationship between estimated survival rate, bias in collection, and true survival rate was non-linear. Thus, correction for the bias requires (i) prior knowledge of the direction and the severity of the bias and (ii) an independent estimate of the survival rate. This method of estimating survival rates is less accurate when the collection method is biased for or against parous females, although robust to other assumptions.     

Carryover effects and climatic conditions influence the postfledging survival of greater sage‐grouse

Prebreeding survival is an important life history component that affects both parental fitness and population persistence. In birds, prebreeding can be separated into pre‐ and postfledging periods; carryover effects from the prefledging period may influence postfledging survival. We investigated effects of body condition at fledging, and climatic variation, on postfledging survival of radio‐marked greater sage‐grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in the Great Basin Desert of the western United States. We hypothesized that body condition would influence postfledging survival as a carryover effect from the prefledging period, and we predicted that climatic variation may mediate this carryover effect or, alternatively, would act directly on survival during the postfledging period. Individual body condition had a strong positive effect on postfledging survival of juvenile females, suggesting carryover effects from the prefledging period. Females in the upper 25th percentile of body condition scores had a postfledging survival probability more than twice that (Φ = 0.51 ± 0.06 SE) of females in the bottom 25th percentile (Φ = 0.21 ± 0.05 SE). A similar effect could not be detected for males. We also found evidence for temperature and precipitation effects on monthly survival rates of both sexes. After controlling for site‐level variation, postfledging survival was nearly twice as great following the coolest and wettest growing season (Φ = 0.77 ± 0.05 SE) compared with the hottest and driest growing season (Φ = 0.39 ± 0.05 SE). We found no relationships between individual body condition and temperature or precipitation, suggesting that carryover effects operated independently of background climatic variation. The temperature and precipitation effects we observed likely produced a direct effect on mortality risk during the postfledging period. Conservation actions that focus on improving prefledging habitat for sage‐grouse may have indirect benefits to survival during postfledging, due to carryover effects between the two life phases.     

Prefledging Growth and Recruitment of Female Lesser Scaup

Annual variation in juvenile recruitment is an important component of duck population dynamics, yet little is known about the factors affecting the probability of surviving and breeding in the first year of life. Two hypothesized mechanisms to explain annual variability are indirect carry-over effects (COEs) from conditions experienced during the prefledging period and direct effects from climatic conditions during the postfledging period. We used Cormack-Jolly-Seber models to estimate apparent survival and detection rates of 643 juvenile female lesser scaup (Aythya affinis) marked just prior to fledging at Red Rock Lakes National Wildlife Refuge in southwestern Montana, USA, 2010–2018. We evaluated COEs from hatch date, a hatch date × spring phenology interaction, and conspecific duckling density in addition to a direct climatic effect of winter conditions (indexed by the El Niño Southern Oscillation [ENSO]) and spring habitat conditions on the study area. We used growth data from a subset (n = 190) of known-aged ducklings to estimate the influence of hatch date and conspecific density on prefledging growth to help identify mechanisms underlying COEs. Prefledging growth and juvenile apparent survival were negatively related to measures of conspecific duckling density. We found evidence that detection probability varied annually for juvenile (but not adult) scaup, possibly representing decisions to delay breeding and not return to or remain at the study site in their first year of life. Like with apparent survival, there was suggestive evidence that detection probability decreased with increasing duckling density in the previous year. Hatching date was weakly negatively related to detection probability, but unrelated to apparent survival, whereas neither vital rate was related to winter ENSO index. Our results are consistent with a process where density-dependent growth rates in the prefledging period carry over to influence fitness in subsequent life-cycle stages. If this pattern generalizes to other systems, this density COE may have important implications for our understanding of duck population dynamics and reaffirms the importance of maintaining abundant brood-rearing habitats in conservation and management of ducks. © 2021 The Wildlife Society.     

Using Open Robust Design Models to Estimate Temporary Emigration from Capture—Recapture Data

Capture-recapture studies are crucial in many circumstances for estimating demographic parameters for wildlife and fish populations. Pollock's robust design, involving multiple sampling occasions per period of interest, provides several advantages over classical approaches. This includes the ability to estimate the probability of being present and available for detection, which in some situations is equivalent to breeding probability. We present a model for estimating availability for detection that relaxes two assumptions required in previous approaches. The first is that the sampled population is closed to additions and deletions across samples within a period of interest. The second is that each member of the population has the same probability of being available for detection in a given period. We apply our model to estimate survival and breeding probability in a study of hawksbill sea turtles (Eretmochelys imbricata), where previous approaches are not appropriate.     

Efficiency Gain from Auxiliary Data Requiring Additional Nuisance Parameters

In a mark-recapture study of an animal population, live-recapture information may be supplemented by resightings from marked animals obtained throughout the period of the study and the two types of data analyzed simultaneously. The resighting data can only contribute to estimates of survival probability if they are jointly modeled with the live-recapture data and require the inclusion of additional nuisance parameters. We show that, under quite general conditions, estimates of the original parameters are estimated with the same, or improved, precision despite the inclusion of the nuisance parameters. Banding data from female goldeneye ducks (Bucephala clangula) are used as an illustration.     

Understanding implications of detection heterogeneity in wildlife abundance estimation

Negative bias in mark-recapture abundance estimators due to heterogeneity in detection (capture) probability is a well-known problem, but we believe most biologists do not understand why heterogeneity causes bias and how bias can be reduced. We demonstrate how heterogeneity creates dependence and bias in mark-recapture approaches to abundance estimation. In comparison, heterogeneity, and hence estimator bias, is not as problematic for distance sampling and mark-resight methods because both techniques estimate detection probabilities based on a known quantity. We show how the introduction of a known number of individuals planted into a study population prior to a mark-recapture survey can reduce bias from heterogeneity in detection probability. We provide examples with simulation and an analysis of motion-sensitive camera data from a study population of introduced eastern wild turkeys (Meleagris gallopavo silvestris) of known size with a subset of telemetered birds. In choosing a method for abundance estimation, careful consideration should be given to assumptions and how heterogeneity in detection probability can be accommodated for each application.     

Foraging in precocial chicks of the black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa: vulnerability to weather and prey size

Self-feeding precocial development is associated with high energy requirements and potentially vulnerable to short-term reductions in food availability, yet few studies have investigated development of foraging in precocial chicks and its sensitivity to environmental conditions. We studied time budgets and foraging behaviour during the 25-d prefledging period in the insectivorous chicks of a grassland shorebird, the black-tailed godwit Limosa limosa . Until 8–10  d old, parental brooding was the main determinant of chicks' daily foraging time. Brooding decreased with age and temperature and increased during rainfall. Foraging time increased to 70–90% of the daylight period in chicks older than a week, during which distances of 3–12  km  d⁻¹ were covered. Chicks took 98% of their arthropod prey from the grassland vegetation. Prey ingestion rates increased in the first week and slowly declined thereafter, modified by wind speed, temperature and time of day. Chicks in poor body condition were brooded more than chicks growing normally and hence had less feeding time, potentially leading to a negative condition spiral under adverse conditions. However, we found no effect of condition on prey ingestion rate that would preclude recovery when conditions improve. Combining behavioural observations with data on energy expenditure revealed that mean prey size was small (1–4.5  mg), necessitating a high feeding rate, but increased notably after 7–10  d of age. This coincided with a decrease in walking speed, suggesting that chicks fed more selectively. Prey of older chicks approached the upper limit of sizes available in exploitable densities in the grassland vegetation, and this enhances the chicks' sensitivity to variation in prey availability due to weather and agricultural practice.     

Population Dynamics of the Critically Endangered Golden Lancehead Pitviper,Bothrops insularis: Stability or Decline?

Little is known about vital rates of snakes generally because of the difficulty in collecting data. Here we used a robust design mark-recapture model to estimate survival, behavioral effects on capture probability, temporary emigration, abundance and test the hypothesis of population decline in the golden lancehead pitviper, Bothrops insularis, an endemic and critically endangered species from southeastern Brazil. We collected data at irregular intervals over ten occasions from 2002 to 2010. Survival was slightly higher in the wet season than in the dry season. Temporal emigration was high, indicating the importance of accounting for this parameter both in the sampling design and modeling. No behavioral effects were detected on capture probability. We detected an average annual population decrease ( = 0.93, CI = 0.47–1.38) during the study period, but estimates included high uncertainty, and caution in interpretation is needed. We discuss the potential effects of the illegal removal of individuals and the implications of the vital rates obtained for the future persistence and conservation of this endemic, endangered species.     

Dispersal in a stream dwelling salmonid: Inferences from tagging and microsatellite studies

We used both direct (mark-recapture) andindirect (microsatellite analysis)methodologies to investigate dispersal betweentwo putative populations of brook charr (Salvelinus fontinalis) in Freshwater River,Cape Race, Newfoundland, Canada. Over a 5-yearstudy period, mark-recapture data revealed somemovement by fish, but the proportion ofrecaptured fish migrating from one populationarea to another was low (0–4.1%).Additionally, during sampling periods in thespawning seasons, no fish was found in thealternate population area to that of its firstcapture. Despite this pattern of limitedmovement, microsatellite analysis based onsixteen polymorphic loci provided no evidenceof genetic differentiation. Indirect estimatesof dispersal parameters varied greatly betweendifferent methods of analysis. While use of acoalescent-based model yielded estimatedmigration rates congruent with the results ofthe mark-recapture study, other methodsresulted in much higher estimates of migrationbetween the populations. In particular, thelack of genetic differentiation coupled withlikely violations of the assumed island modelprevented generation of meaningful estimates ofdispersal using F_st. The disparitiesbetween migration rates estimated from themark-recapture work and from the differentindirect methods highlight the difficulties ofusing indirect methods to estimate dispersal onan ecological timescale. However,mark-recapture methods can fail to detecthistorical or episodic movement that isimportant in an evolutionary context, and wetherefore argue that a combination of directand indirect methods can provide a morecomplete picture of dispersal than eitherapproach alone.     

The first confirmed decline of a delphinid population from Brazilian waters: 2000–2015 abundance of Sotalia guianensis in Guanabara Bay,South-eastern Brazil

The abundance of Guiana dolphins (Sotalia guianensis) in Guanabara Bay, Rio de Janeiro, South-eastern Brazil, was investigated during the period 2000–2015 using mark-recapture models applied to photo-identification data. A combination of Pradel’s model and Pollock’s robust design was applied to estimate abundance and other population parameters, such as apparent survival (Φ), capture probability (p) and seniority probability (γ). Total population size was estimated by correcting the estimates derived from the Pradel robust design model for the proportion of marked individuals in the population. The corrected abundance estimates decreased drastically (37%) between 2000 (62, 95% CI 59–65) and 2015 (39, 95% CI 37–40), and can be explained by a combination of low survival and recruitment rates. Determining the ultimate causes for the decline in this Guiana dolphin population is difficult, but the likely reasons are of anthropogenic nature, such as by-catch, habitat degradation, intense traffic of vessels and exposure to immunosuppressive and endocrine-disrupting pollutants. We provide the first quantitative evidence of population decline in a delphinid from Brazilian waters. Conservation and management actions are urged to change this scenario. Other local dolphin populations in Brazil, which are exposed to the same impacts, may also be currently declining or are expected to do so in the near future. For this reason, we emphasize that anthropogenic impacts upon estuarine/coastal species that exhibit site fidelity warrant greater attention, because such impacts may lead to the same negative scenario observed in Guanabara Bay.     

Adjusting count period strategies to improve the accuracy of forest bird abundance estimates from point transect distance sampling surveys

Although point transect distance sampling methods have become widely used in surveys of forest birds, there has been no attempt to tailor field methods to maximize the accuracy of abundance estimates by minimizing the effects of violations of the method's critical assumptions, which are: (1) birds at distance 0 m are detected with certainty, (2) birds are detected at their initial location and (3) distances to objects are measured accurately. We investigate the effects on abundance estimates for Philippine forest birds of varying the count period from 2 to 10 min, and of including and excluding a pre‐count settling down period. Encounter rates were highly sensitive to count period length but density estimates from 10‐min count periods were, on average, only 13% higher than those from 2‐min periods, and in several cases were actually lower than those from periods of 6–8 min. This was because birds tended to be recorded at greater distances from the recorder as the count period went on, thus ‘stretching out’ detection functions while having little effect on detection rates close to the recorder. For some bird groups, including canopy frugivores and upperstorey gleaning insectivores, density estimates were more than twice as high without than with a settling down period. We suggest that movement away from the recorder is more common than attraction to the recorder, and that unless pilot studies show otherwise, similar studies should not use a settling down period for surveying many species. Count periods that maximized probability of bird detection close to the central point while minimizing the unwanted effects of bird movement during the count period were: 4 min for omnivores, 6 min for nectarivores and upperstorey gleaning insectivores, 8 min for understorey insectivores and canopy frugivores, and a full 10 min for sallying insectivores, ground‐dwellers, carnivores and coucals/koels. We use the results to suggest ‘group‐specific’ count period regimes that could help maximize the accuracy of density estimates from similar studies of tropical forest birds.