On the indices of plant–plant competition and their pitfalls

The index of relative competition intensity (RCI) has serious built‐in biases, due to its asymptotic behavior when competition intensity is high and its tendency to obtain very low values when plants with neighbors intact perform better than neighbor removal plants. These biases have been partially corrected in the index of relative neighbor effect (RNE), but the existence of fixed upper and lower bounds (?1≤RNE≤+1) still creates problems and biases in communities where the average intensity of competition or facilitation is high and plant performance pronouncedly varies in space. The third commonly used index, the logarithm of response ratio (lnRR), is mathematically and statistically sound, but when computed from pair‐wise comparisons between neighbor removal and control plants, this index reflects the geometric mean of the treatment effect. Moreover, linear patterns in lnRR reflect exponential patterns in the intensity of competition. As the interest of ecologists usually focuses on arithmetic means, we propose a corrected index of relative competition intensity, CRCI=arc sin (RNE). This index is fairly linear within the observed ranges of competition and facilitation, and for the range of competition intensities where RNE behaves reasonably, the two indices obtain almost identical values. We compared the performance of the four indices, using both imagined and real data, the latter from systems where the responses of plants to neighbor removal ranged from weak to moderate, so that RNE and CRCI were expected to behave similarly. The indices were computed both from pooled data for each community and as averages of pair‐wise comparisons. lnRR and CRCI were found to behave in a consistent and bias‐free manner, yielding similar results regardless of method of computation. This was, by and large, the case with RNE, too, but as the values of indices grew, the values from pair‐wise comparisons became increasingly smaller than values computed from pooled data. RCI yielded grossly aberrant results in computations based on pair‐wise comparisons. Therefore, the further use of RCI is unadvisable and studies where RCI has been derived from pair‐wise comparisons should be excluded from meta‐analyses.     

Seeking a sound index of competitive intensity: Application to the study of biomass production under elevated CO2 along a nitrogen gradient

Abstract The aim of this paper is to evaluate (i) the relevance of currently proposed measures of competitive intensity to elevated CO₂ studies by means of an example analysis, hypothesizing that competitive intensity is increased under elevated CO₂; and (ii) an alternative method for predicting species performance in mixtures from monocultures. Relative competition intensity (RCI), relative physiological performance and normalized ecological performance were used to characterize the competitive ability of two grasses (Danthonia richardsonii Cashmore, Phalaris aquatica L.) and two legumes (Lotus pedunculatus Cav., Trifolium repens L.) grown in monocultures and mixtures of the four species along a N gradient under conditions of ambient and elevated CO₂. Relative competition intensity could not be used to predict competitive outcomes in mixtures under conditions of elevated CO₂ because it failed to account for changes in the size of interspecific differences along the N gradient and between CO₂ concentrations. Relative physiological performance and relative ecological performance were more useful for investigating biomass production in mixtures and to predict species performance in mixtures from their performance in monocultures. Both indices of relative performance showed an increase in competitive intensity under elevated CO₂ conditions. They also showed a decrease in competitive intensity with increasing N supply over most of the range of N supply, but a reversal of that trend at high levels of N supply. The merits and utility of these relative performance indices for elevated CO₂ are discussed.     

Succinctly assessing the topological importance of species in flower–pollinator networks

The topological importance of species within networks is an important way of bringing a species-level consideration to the study of whole ecological networks. There are many different indices of topological importance, including centrality indices, but it is likely that a small number are sufficient to explain variation in topological importance. We used 14 indices to describe topological importance of plants and pollinators in 12 quantitative mutualistic (plant–pollinator) networks. The 14 indices varied in their consideration of interaction strength (weighted versus unweighted indices) and indirect interactions (from the local measure of degree to meso-scale indices). We use principal components approximation to assess how well every combination of 1–14 indices approximated to the results of principal components analysis (PCA). We found that one or two indices were sufficient to explain up to 90% of the variation in topological importance in both plants and pollinators. The choice of index was crucial because there was considerable variation between the best and the worst approximating subsets of indices. The best single indices were unweighted degree and unweighted topological importance (Jordán's TI index) with two steps (a measurement of apparent competition). The best pairs of indices consisted of a measure of a TI index and one of closeness centrality (weighted or unweighted) or d′ (a standardised species-level measure of partner diversity). Although we have found indices that efficiently explain variation in topological importance, we recommend further research to discover the real-world relevance of different aspects of topological importance to species in ecological networks.     

油松、侧柏林种内竞争特点的对比研究

植物竞争研究一直是种群生态学最活跃的研究领域之一,论文以林木个体相对胸径、相对树高、相对冠幅、相对冠长、相对冠面积、树冠体积、树冠伸展度、冠长率、圆满度、投影比、生长空间指标、生长空间竞争指数和简单竞争指数13个变量作为对比研究油松、侧柏林个体之间竞争关系的指数,采用这些指标的变异系数对其种内竞争的差异程度进行比较研究,并用这些变量作为评价指标将其竞争能力分为两类:种内竞争性强的树种和种内竞争性弱的树种。油松为种内竞争性强的树种,而侧柏为种内竞争性弱的树种,已有的研究结果已从生物量、根系特征、抗旱机理、耗水特性、分布及结构特点五个方面为这种划分提供了理论支持。     

Competition between plant populations with different rooting depths II. Pot experiments

Summary In a previous paper in this series a model was proposed lor the competition between plant populations with different rooting depths. This model predicts that in mixtures of plant populations with different rooting depths the Relative Yield Total will exceed unity. Secondly it predicts that in these mixtures the relative crowding coefficient of the deep rooting population with respect to the shallow rooting one will decrease with increasing plant frequency. Two competition experiments in deep pots are carried out to test these predictions. In the first experiment a comparison is made between a series in which nutrients limited plant growth severely and a series in which nutrients were applied in a quantity that allowed high productivity. In the nutrient poor series the Relative Yield Total exceeded unity by about twenty per cent, while in the nutrient rich series only a small deviation from one was observed. The second experiment was divided into a series of deep pots in which different rooting depths were possible and a series of shallow pots in which the two species were forced to share the same space. In the series of shallow pots the relative crowding coefficient of the two species was found to be independent of plant frequency. In the series of deep pots the relative corowding coefficient of the two species with respect to each other did decrease significantly with increasing frequency.The observed frequency-dependence for the shallow rooting species could be explained by an extension of the theory presented previously. In the spacing series used in the same experiment a decrease of the shoot to root ratio with increasing plant density was observed. Furthermore, in the replacement series the shoot to root ratio in mixture was found to be lower than in monoculture. The consequences of these phenomena for the estimation of the relative crowding coefficient and the Relative Yield Total on the basis of shoot weights are discussed. However, it is argued that the fact that shoot to root ratios change with plant frequency does not provide an alternative explanation for the frequency-dependence observed.Grassland Research Group Publication No. 33     

Relative crystallinity of plant biomass: studies on assembly, adaptation and acclimation

Plant biomechanical design is central to cell shape, morphogenesis, reproductive performance and protection against environmental and mechanical stress. The cell wall forms the central load bearing support structure for plant design, yet a mechanistic understanding of its synthesis is incomplete. A key tool for studying the structure of cellulose polymorphs has been x-ray diffraction and fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR). Relative crystallinity index (RCI) is based on the x-ray diffraction characteristics of two signature peaks and we used this technique to probe plant assembly, adaptation and acclimation. Confocal microscopy was used to visualize the dynamics of cellulose synthase in transgenic Arabidopsis plants expressing a homozygous YFP::CESA6. Assembly: RCI values for stems and roots were indistinguishable but leaves had 23.4 and 21.6% lower RCI than stems and roots respectively. Adaptation: over 3-fold variability in RCI was apparent in leaves from 35 plant species spanning Ordovician to Cretaceous periods. Within this study, RCI correlated positively with leaf geometric constraints and with mass per unit area, suggestive of allometry. Acclimation: biomass crystallinity was found to decrease under conditions of thigmomorphogenesis in Arabidopsis. Further, in etiolated pea hypocotyls, RCI values also decreased compared to plants that were grown in light, consistent with alterations in FTIR cellulose fingerprint peaks and live cell imaging experiments revealing rapid orientation of the YFP::cellulose synthase-6 array in response to light. Herein, results and technical challenges associated with the structure of the cell wall that gives rise to sample crystallinity are presented and examined with respect to adaptation, acclimation and assembly in ecosystem-level processes.     

Separation of allelopathy from resource competition using rice/barnyardgrass mixed-cultures

Plant-plant interference is the combined effect of allelopathy, resource competition, and many other factors. Separating allelopathy from resource competition is almost impossible in natural systems but it is important to evaluate the relative contribution of each of the two mechanisms on plant interference. Research on allelopathy in natural and cultivated plant communities has been hindered in the absence of a reliable method that can separate allelopathic effect from resource competition. In this paper, the interactions between allelopathic rice accession PI312777, non-allelopathic rice accession Lemont and barnyardgrass were explored respectively by using a target (rice)-neighbor (barnyardgrass) mixed-culture in hydroponic system. The relative competitive intensity (RCI), the relative neighbor effect (RNE) and the competitive ratio (CR) were used to quantify the intensity of competition between each of the two different potentially allelopathic rice accessions and barnyardgrass. Use of hydroponic culture system enabled us to exclude any uncontrolled factors that might operate in the soil and we were able to separate allelopathy from resource competition between each rice accession and barnyardgrass. The RCI and RNE values showed that the plant-plant interaction was positive (facilitation) for PI312777 but that was negative (competition) for Lemont and barnyardgrass in rice/barnyardgrass mixed-cultures. The CR values showed that one PI312777 plant was more competitive than 2 barnyardgrass plants. The allelopathic effects of PI312777 were much more intense than the resource competition in rice/barnyardgrass mixed cultures. The reverse was true for Lemont. These results demonstrate that the allelopathic effect of PI312777 was predominant in rice/barnyardgrass mixed-cultures. The most significant result of our study is the discovery of an experimental design, target-neighbor mixed-culture in combination with competition indices, can successfully separate allelopathic effects from competition.     

上海市绿化植物中四种常见刺蛾的生态位及其种间竞争

为明确上海城市绿化植物中常见刺蛾的种间关系,定量研究了黄刺蛾、桑褐刺蛾、丽绿刺蛾及褐边绿刺蛾在营养、时间、空间资源序列上的生态位指数。结果表明:褐边绿刺蛾比其它刺蛾能较广泛地利用寄主资源,生态位宽度指数为0.5447;黄刺蛾、桑褐刺蛾在时间序列上占有较大优势,生态位宽度指数分别为0.4304和0.4415;而黄刺蛾的茧则在空间资源利用中优于其它刺蛾,生态位宽度指数为0.5441。在种间,桑褐刺蛾与丽绿刺蛾利用营养资源较为接近,其生态位重叠指数(2.6647)、生态位相似比例(0.5199)和种间竞争系数(0.7015)均高于其它共存种类;黄刺蛾和桑褐刺蛾利用时间资源较相似,生态位相似比例和种间竞争系数分别为0.4846、0.5222;而桑褐刺蛾和褐边绿刺蛾则在空间资源利用中较为接近,其生态位重叠指数(2.7495)、生态位相似比例(0.9165)和种间竞争系数(0.9959)在共存种间均为最高。     

基于树冠重叠面积的天然混交林林木竞争指数

构建基于树冠重叠面积和林木混交关系的竞争指数,探究天然混交林林分及主要树种竞争的表达方法,并以甘肃省小陇山林区锐齿槲栎天然混交林为研究对象,采用胸径、树高、冠幅、距离等信息的2期调查数据,对新构建的基于树冠重叠面积的天然混交林林木竞争(CIM)指数进行验证,并选取Spearman系数,对CIM竞争指数和传统竞争指数进行相关性分析。结果表明,采用树冠投影重叠和考虑树高关系确定竞争木的方法能有效避免竞争木多选或漏选; CIM1、CIM2、CIM3能够表达出混交林竞争压力变化,表现出竞争压力越大林木蓄积生长量越小的趋势,将树种混交因子引入竞争指数能够提高蓄积生长量与竞争指数的相关性,更加客观的描述林分中竞争状况。竞争指数与蓄积生长量相关性由大到小排序为CIM2>CIM3>CIM1>Bella竞争指数(CIO)>简单竞争指数(CI)>CIO2>CIO1,表明竞争指数 CIM2对混交林竞争表达更具参考意义。林分中主要树种锐齿槲栎由于相邻木中同树种相邻木增加,导致竞争压力增大。天然混交林中树种组成复杂多样,林木分布不均匀,在竞争指数中引入树种混交因子能够较为真实的反映林木竞争状况。     

基于引力模型的林木竞争分析

引力模型是否可以应用于森林群落林木竞争关系分析是值得研究的问题。基于引力模型建立林木相对活力圈能反映竞争木活力大小,基于竞争木的相对活力圈建立引力竞争指数能准确反映林木生长与林木竞争的关系。以浙江省天目山国家级自然保护区针阔混交林为研究对象,将V_Hegyi竞争指数、引力竞争指数分别与胸径进行相关分析,胸高断面积生长量分别与2种竞争指数进行相关分析,胸径生长率与2期引力竞争指数的比值(2021年与2006年的引力竞争指数之比)进行相关分析,此外,对相对活力圈直径与胸径进行相关分析,并比较分析了活立木与枯死木的竞争指数大小。结果表明: 2种竞争指数与胸径均呈显著负相关,且均服从幂函数关系。林木胸高断面积生长量与2种竞争指数均呈显著负相关,但引力竞争指数比V_Hegyi竞争指数更能反映林木生长与林木竞争的关系。相对于V_Hegyi竞争指数的比值,2期引力竞争指数的比值更能说明林木生长与林木竞争的关系。在针阔混交林中,阔叶树种的生长与竞争的相关性>针叶树种生长与竞争的相关性。林木枯损受竞争的显著影响。林木相对活力圈大小与林木胸径大小呈显著负相关。引力模型是反映空间相互作用的重要模型之一,可以应用于林木竞争关系的研究,且基于引力模型建立的引力竞争指数可以作为评价林木竞争和林木活力的一个空间结构指标,比V_Hegyi竞争指数更能反映林木生长与林木竞争的关系。     

高寒山区混播草地燕麦和毛苕子种间的竞争关系

植物通过调整生长发育阶段的生长行为和形态特征来适应种间竞争关系的变化.在祁连山区建立了禾本科牧草燕麦与豆科毛苕子混播草地,以相对产量(RY)、相对密度(RD)和相对产量总值(RYT)为指标,研究了这2种1年生植物在不同物候期的种间竞争关系.结果表明:随着物候期的变化,种间竞争关系发生着动态变化,在出苗期,二者存在激烈的种间竞争,2个物种限制彼此相对数量的发展,株高、叶片数等增长缓慢;分蘖期,种间竞争转换为种间协作,分蘖数、叶片数等迅速增大,相对产量总值不断积累;进入拔节期,毛苕子开始扩大相对数量,限制了燕麦的生长,导致了激烈的种内竞争;到结实期,种内竞争再次转化为种间竞争.不同物候期的燕麦和毛苕子通过对植物形态可塑性的调整,更好地响应了种间竞争关系的转换.     

A model of the competitive relationships between R. cochinchinensis and Z. mays

An understanding of the competitive relationship between weed and crop can be used in assessing what physiological aspects of the association can be exploited in the control of the weed. Field and greenhouse studies were conducted with Z. mays L. and Rottboellia cochinchinensis (Lour.) W D Clayton using a modified replacement series model in which the overall weed crop density in each treatment was maintained as a constant, but the proportion of the two species varied. The results indicated that the crop had greater competitive ability (K_mr) than the weed even at increasing weed densities. Under field conditions, the values of the Plant Relative Yield (PRY) indicated that severe specific competition was occurring and suggested that some environmental factor was limiting, while the Relative Yield Total (RYT) suggest that either the crop and the weed were exploiting the resources in mutual antagonism or that allelopathy was occurring. The limiting environmental factor that both species exploited in mutual antagonism in the field was light under conditions of adequate soil moisture and nutrients.     

Residual yolk energetics and postnatal shell growth in Smooth Softshell Turtles,Apalone mutica

We examined functions of residual yolk (RY¹) in hatchling Smooth Softshell Turtles (Apalone mutica). Removal of RY did not affect survival, shell growth, or resting metabolic rates of turtles for 40 d after hatching. Our estimates of metabolic rate suggest that RY can fuel maintenance and activity metabolism for approximately 25 days. A. mutica absorb more than 1 g of water in the first 2 weeks of life, which appears to be the basis of post-hatch shell expansion rather than yolk-provisioned growth. Post-hatch growth may be limited by the magnitude of RY remaining at hatching, but RY protein and lipid proportions do not differ from those of freshly-laid eggs. In addition, A. mutica did not use RY to fuel nest emergence. Our results suggest that RY does not fulfill several hypothetical functions in A. mutica, including postnatal growth, catabolic fuel for nest emergence, and long-term nutritional sustenance for maintenance, activity, or hibernation. Instead, A. mutica appear to absorb most yolk prior to hatching, and are left with a minimum of RY. Variation in RY mass with incubation regime in other species suggests that mothers may overprovision their eggs to ensure successful development across a diversity of possible incubation conditions.     

Power of eight tree shape statistics to detect nonrandom diversification: a comparison by simulation of two models of cladogenesis

We used simulations to compare the relative power of eight statistical tests to detect imbalance in phylogenies that is too great to be ascribed to an equal-rates Markov null model. Three of these tests have never had their power assessed before. Our simulations are the first to assess performance under scenarios in which the speciation rates of various lineages can evolve independently. In one of the scenarios explored, rates depend upon the value of an evolving trait, whereas in the other the probability that a species will speciate declines with the time since it last did so. The results indicate that the relative performance of the methods depends upon how the imbalance is generated. Different types of processes lead to different imbalance signatures, i.e., different patterns of imbalance at different depths in the phylogeny, and the measures of tree shape differ in the depth of phylogeny at which they are most sensitive. Relative performance is also affected by tree size but does not appear to depend greatly upon the degree of speciation rate variation among lineages. Two of the indices (Colless's index I(c) and Shao and Sokal's Nmacr;) show reasonable performance throughout, but another (Shao and Sokal's B(2)) is never indicated to be a preferred method. Two tests that do not require completely resolved phylogenies, mean I' and mean I'(10), have reasonable power.     

Woody plant invasions and restoration in forests of island ecosystems: lessons from Robinson Crusoe Island,Chile

Islands are susceptible to exotic plant invasion, and Robinson Crusoe Island (RCI), Juan Fernandez Archipelago (33°S, 78°7′W, Chile) is no exception. Through a literature review, we assessed plant invasion and compared it to other oceanic islands worldwide. Here, we discuss measures to enhance forest recovery on RCI based on knowledge accumulated from studies on RCI and other islands. Although these findings are designed to halt the progress of invasion on RCI, they could also be applied to other insular ecosystems. We addressed the following questions: (1) What is the plant invasion status on RCI in relation to other islands worldwide? (2) How imminent is biodiversity loss by plant invasion on RCI? (3) How is woody plant invasion taking place on RCI? (4) What methods are effective in controlling invasive woody species on islands worldwide? (5) What is the ability of natural forests to recover after controlling invasive plants on RCI? We found that (1) RCI is globally the fourth most invaded island for woody species. (2) Invasive woody species expansion is estimated at 4.3 ha annually. (3) Some invasive species establish under forest canopy gaps, out-competing native species. (4) Control of invasive plant species should focus on small gaps, and restoration should promote plant cover and soil protection. Mechanical and chemical control of invasive species seemed to be insufficient to prevent biodiversity loss. Developing alternatives like biological control are indispensable on RCI. (5) Six years after invasive species control, floristic composition tended to recover.     

Interaction characteristics and development pattern of sustainability system in BHR (Bohai Rim) and YRD (Yangtze River) regions,China

The well-run structure, function and dynamics of complex regional sustainability system are critical for maintaining regional sustainability stability, so exploring the interaction characteristics and development pattern of the system should be considerably significant. Based on the new comprehensive index system of sustainability system, the indices of social, economic and eco-environmental dimensions and nine thematic indices are firstly presented for BHR (Bohai Rim) and YRD (Yangtze River) regions during the period 2001–2010, and then the regional sustainability changes are further tracked by regional sustainability index (RSI) and regional coordination index (RCI). Furthermore, we mainly focus on the dynamic interaction characteristics and propose green development index (GDI) to reflect the development pattern of BHR and YRD from the perspective of taking all indicators into account. The study results show that: the average annual growth rates of the indices of social, economic and eco-environmental dimensions of the BHR region are 10.00%, 19.11% and 0.37% during the study period, while the ones of YRD region are 7.32%, 20.25% and 0.46%, respectively, demonstrating that economic progress is the fastest-improving pillar for RSI of the two regions; the standard deviations of the indices of three dimensions that can construct a triangle diagram and the amount of that failed to construct are both decreasing from 2001 to 2012, showing that the RCI of two regions have made some progresses; BHR have stayed in some positions where eco-environmental level gradually decreases (from 0.50 to 0.45) with the progression of socioeconomic situations (from 0.20 to 0.50), while BHR in a position where eco-environmental level gradually increases (from 0.53 to 0.57) with the progression of socioeconomic situations (from 0.25 to 0.55), revealing dynamic interaction characteristics, and then in their evolution trajectories, YRD has been principally at the intermediate sustainable development stage while BHR always at the potentially unsustainable one; the green social or economic development degree, associated with the uneven resource utilization and eco-environment occupancy among provinces, should contribute most to regional development pattern. The study guides a direction where the policy makers need to improve in regional sustainability management.     

Two homologous low-temperature-inducible genes from Arabidopsis encode highly hydrophobic proteins.

We have characterized two related cDNAs (RCI2A and RCI2B) corresponding to genes from Arabidopsis thaliana, the expression of which is transiently induced by low, nonfreezing temperatures. RCI2A and RCI2B encode small (54 amino acids), highly hydrophobic proteins that bear two potential transmembrane domains. They show similarity to proteins encoded by genes from barley (Hordeum vulgare L.) and wheatgrass (Lophophyrum elongatum) that are regulated by different stress conditions. Their high level of sequence homology (78%) and their genomic location in a single restriction fragment suggest that both genes originated as a result of a tandem duplication. However, their regulatory sequences have diverged enough to confer on them different expression patterns. Like most of the cold-inducible plant genes characterized, the expression of RCI2A and RCI2B is also promoted by abscisic acid (ABA) and dehydration but is not a general response to stress conditions, since it is not induced by salt stress or by anaerobiosis. Furthermore, low temperatures are able to induce RCI2A and RCI2B expression in ABA-deficient and -insensitive genetic backgrounds, indicating that both ABA-dependent and -independent pathways regulate the low-temperature responsiveness of these two genes.     

A new approach to the quantification of degree of reciprocity in distylous (sensu lato) plant populations

Background and Aims

Although evolution of sexual polymorphism has been traditionally analysed using discrete characters, most of these polymorphisms are continuous. This is the case of heterostyly. Heterostyly is a floral polymorphism successfully used as a model to study the evolution of the sexual systems in plants. It involves the reciprocal positioning of anthers and stigmas in flowers of different plants within the same population. Studies of the functioning of heterostyly require the quantification of the degree of reciprocity between morphs of heterostylous species. Some reciprocity indices have been proposed previously, but they show significant limitations that need to be dealt with. This paper analyses these existing indices, and proposes a new index that aims to avoid their main problems (e.g. takes into account population variability and offers a single value per population).

Methods

The new index is based on the comparison of the position of every single sexual organ in the population with each and every organ of the opposite sex. To carry out all the calculations, a macro was programmed with MS^®Visual Basic in MS^® Excel. The behaviour of the index is tested using hypothetical data to simulate different situations of dimorphic populations; the index is also tested with some actual populations of different species of the genus Lithodora.

Results and Conclusions

The index of reciprocity proposed here is a sound alternative to previous indices: it compares stigma–stamen height gaps for all potential crosses in the population, it comprises stigma–stamen distance as well as dispersion, it is not skewed by the more frequent sex, and it can be meaningfully compared between populations and species. It has produced solid results for both hypothetical and natural populations.Key words: Distyly, floral polymorphism, heterostyly, reciprocity index, stylar dimorphism, Lithodora     

Commentary: Do we have a consistent terminology for species diversity? The fallacy of true diversity

There is no single best index that can be used to answer all questions about species diversity. Entropy-based diversity indices, including Hill’s indices, cannot account for geographical and phylogenetic structure. While a single diversity index arises if we impose several constraints—most notably that gamma diversity be completely decomposed into alpha and beta diversity—there are many ecological questions regarding species diversity for which it is counterproductive, requiring decomposability. Non-decomposable components of gamma diversity may quantify important intrinsic ecological properties, such as resilience or nestedness.     

Choice of predictor variables as a source of uncertainty in continental‐scale species distribution modelling under climate change

Aim Species distribution modelling is commonly used to guide future conservation policies in the light of potential climate change. However, arbitrary decisions during the model‐building process can affect predictions and contribute to uncertainty about where suitable climate space will exist. For many species, the key climatic factors limiting distributions are unknown. This paper assesses the uncertainty generated by using different climate predictor variable sets for modelling the impacts of climate change. Location Europe, 10° W to 50° E and 30° N to 60° N. Methods Using 1453 presence pixels at 30 arcsec resolution for the great bustard (Otis tarda), predictions of future distribution were made based on two emissions scenarios, three general climate models and 26 sets of predictor variables. Twenty‐six current models were created, and 156 for both 2050 and 2080. Map comparison techniques were used to compare predictions in terms of the quantity and the location of presences (map comparison kappa, MCK) and using a range change index (RCI). Generalized linear models (GLMs) were used to partition explained deviance in MCK and RCI among sources of uncertainty. Results The 26 different variable sets achieved high values of AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and yet introduced substantial variation into maps of current distribution. Differences between maps were even greater when distributions were projected into the future. Some 64–78% of the variation between future maps was attributable to choice of predictor variable set alone. Choice of general climate model and emissions scenario contributed a maximum of 15% variation and their order of importance differed for MCK and RCI. Main conclusions Generalized variable sets produce an unmanageable level of uncertainty in species distribution models which cannot be ignored. The use of sound ecological theory and statistical methods to check predictor variables can reduce this uncertainty, but our knowledge of species may be too limited to make more than arbitrary choices. When all sources of modelling uncertainty are considered together, it is doubtful whether ensemble methods offer an adequate solution. Future studies should explicitly acknowledge uncertainty due to arbitrary choices in the model‐building process and develop ways to convey the results to decision‐makers.