Drought-Induced Multifactor Decline of Scots Pine in the Pyrenees and Potential Vegetation Change by the Expansion of Co-occurring Oak Species

Episodes of drought-induced tree dieback have been recently observed in many forest areas of the world, particularly at the dry edge of species distributions. Under climate change, those effects could signal potential vegetation shifts occurring over large geographical areas, with major impacts on ecosystem form and function. In this article, we studied the effect of a single drought episode, occurred which in summer 2005, on a Scots pine population in central Pyrenees (NE Spain). Our main objective was to study the environmental correlates of forest decline and vegetation change at the plot level. General and generalized linear models were used to study the relationship between canopy defoliation, mortality and recruitment, and plot characteristics. A drought-driven multifactor dieback was observed in the study forest. Defoliation and mortality were associated with the local level of drought stress estimated at each plot. In addition, stand structure, soil properties, and mistletoe infection were also associated with the observed pattern of defoliation, presumably acting as long-term predisposing factors. Recruitment of Scots pine was low in all plots. In contrast, we observed abundant recruitment of other tree species, mostly Quercus ilex and Q. humilis, particularly in plots where Scots pine showed high defoliation and mortality. These results suggest that an altitudinal upwards migration of Quercus species, mediated by the dieback of the currently dominant species, may take place in the studied slopes. Many rear-edge populations of Scots pine sheltered in the mountain environments of the Iberian Peninsula could be at risk under future climate scenarios.     

Declining hydraulic performances and low carbon investments in tree rings predate Scots pine drought-induced mortality

Key message

The retrospective analysis of wood anatomical features evidences how a long-term deterioration of hydraulic performance and carbon use portend drought-induced mortality in Scots pine.

Abstract

Widespread episodes of drought-induced tree mortality are predicted to become more frequent as climate becomes warmer and drier. Nevertheless, growth trends and their links to changes in wood anatomy before tree dies are still poorly understood. Wood anatomical features provide valuable information that can be extracted to infer the mechanisms leading to tree death. In this study, we characterize drought-induced mortality affecting two Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) sites (Prades and Arcalís) located in the North Eastern Iberian Peninsula. Co-occurring now-dead and living Scots pine trees were sampled and their wood anatomical features were measured and compared. We aimed to detect differences in anatomical features between living and dead trees, and to infer past physiological performances that might have determined their subsequent death or survival. Now-dead trees showed lower tracheid and resin duct production, and smaller radial lumen diameters than co-occurring living trees. At the more xeric Prades site, these anatomical differences were larger and chronic, i.e. were observed over the three studied decades, whilst they were less pronounced at the other, more mesic Arcalís site, where tree mortality episodes were more recent. This indicates that dead trees’ hydraulic conductivity was severely affected and that carbon investment in xylem formation and resin duct production was constrained prior to tree death. Our findings show that both hydraulic deterioration and low carbon allocation to xylem formation were associated to drought-induced mortality in Scots pine. Nevertheless, the temporal dynamics of these processes differed between populations as a function of site climatic conditions.     

Towards a new approach for dendroprovenancing pines in the Mediterranean Iberian Peninsula

Dendroprovenancing studies frequently use site chronologies to identify the origin of archaeological and historical timber. However, radial growth (tree-ring width, TRW) of tree species is influenced by both local and regional climate scales. Here we investigate how the use of annually-resolved Blue Intensity (BI) measurements can enhance dendroprovenancing precision of black pine (Pinus nigra Arn.) and Scots pine (P. sylvestris L.) on the Iberian Peninsula. Principal Component Gradient Analyses (PCGA) was used to assess geographical patterns of annual variation in different TRW and BI proxies of pine trees from two mountain ranges in the Central System and Andalusia in Spain. Local climate-growth relationships were quantified to identify underlying causes of identified groups with diverse growth patterns. Two distinct elevational groups were observed when performing PCGA on latewood BI time series with the response to summer drought as the main factor causing the differences. Both P. nigra and P. sylvestris BI time series were found to be more related to summer drought at low-elevation sites showing an increase in sensitivity at lower latitudes. PCGA of TRW time series allowed to discriminate between trees from Andalusia and Central System within the elevation groups. February and October temperatures were found to be the main climatic factors causing the differences in TRW time series among the high- elevation sites, whereas for low-elevation trees it was the average winter temperature influencing TRW. A subsequent leave-one-out analyses confirmed that including latewood BI time series improves the precision of dendroprovenancing of pine wood in the Iberian Peninsula.     

Linking increasing drought stress to Scots pine mortality and bark beetle infestations

In the dry Swiss Rhone Valley, Scots pine forests have experienced increased mortality in recent years. It has commonly been assumed that drought events and bark beetles fostered the decline, however, whether bark beetle outbreaks increased in recent years and whether they can be linked to drought stress or increasing temperature has never been studied. In our study, we correlated time series of drought indices from long-term climate stations, 11-year mortality trends from a long-term research plot, and mortality probabilities modeled from tree rings (as an indicator of tree vitality) with documented occurrences of various bark beetle species and a buprestid beetle, using regional Forest Service reports from 1902 to 2003 and advisory cases of the Swiss Forest Protection Service (SFPS) from 1984 to 2005. We compared the historical findings with measured beetle emergence from a 4-year tree felling and breeding chamber experiment. The documented beetle-related pine mortality cases increased dramatically in the 1990s, both in the forest reports and the advisory cases. The incidents of beetle-related pine mortality correlated positively with spring and summer temperature, and with the tree-ring based mortality index, but not with the drought index. The number of advisory cases, on the other hand, correlated slightly with summer drought index and temperature, but very highly with tree-ring-based mortality index. The tree-ring-based mortality index and observed tree mortality increased in years following drought. This was confirmed by the beetle emergences from felled trees. Following dry summers, more than twice as many trees were colonized by beetles than following wet summers. We conclude that increased temperatures in the Swiss Rhone Valley have likely weakened Scots pines and favored phloeophagous beetle population growth. Beetles contributed to the increased pine mortality following summer drought. Among the factors not addressed in this study, changed forest use may have also contributed to increased beetle populations and Scots pine mortality, whereas air pollution seems to be of lesser importance.     

Size-dependent responses to summer drought in Scots pine, Norway spruce and common oak

In this study, we provide a detailed analysis of tree growth and water status in relation to climate of three major species of forest trees in lower regions of Bavaria, Southern Germany: Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris), Norway spruce (Picea abies) and common oak (Quercus robur). Tree-ring chronologies and latewood δ¹³C were used to derive measures for drought reaction across trees of different dimensions: growth reduction associated with drought years, long-term growth/climate relations and stomatal control on photosynthesis. For Scots pine, growth/climate relations indicated a stronger limitation of radial growth by high summer temperatures and low summer precipitation in smaller trees in contrast to larger trees. This is corroborated by a stronger stomatal control on photosynthesis for smaller pine trees under average conditions. In dry years, however, larger pine trees exhibited stronger growth reductions. For Norway spruce, a significantly stronger correlation of tree-ring width with summer temperatures and summer precipitation was found for larger trees. Additionally, for Norway spruce there is evidence for a change in competition mode from size-asymmetric competition under conditions with sufficient soil water supply to a more size-symmetric competition under dry conditions. Smaller oak trees showed a weaker stomatal control on photosynthesis under both dry and average conditions, which is also reflected by a significantly faster recovery of tree-ring growth after extreme drought events in smaller oak trees. The observed patterns are discussed in the context of the limitation-caused matter partitioning hypothesis and possible species-specific ontogenetic modifications.     

Mortality of urban pines in Helsinki explored using tree rings and climate records

The mortality of Scots pine trees in and around Helsinki has been reported in recent years, but the causalities of these deaths have not so far been rigorously examined. Tree-ring analyses have previously shown to effectively reveal historical growth variability and thus hint at the stress factors behind tree mortality. Here, we analyzed the tree rings of pines in two tree classes (living and dead) from an urban park in Helsinki to reveal their growth variations and to examine the obtained chronologies along with climatic data. Guided by tree-ring information, the pine growth over the past century could be divided into four episodes: average growth conditions during the first half of the twentieth century, a suppressed growth period during the 1950s and 1960s, a growth release since the mid-1970s, and a period of recent mortality. The two tree classes became particularly differentiated during the release period in that the growth of surviving pines underwent a more positive and abrupt growth anomaly in comparison to dead pines. The survival of pines could also be linked to their sensitivity to droughts in a long-term context: The growth of still-living pines showed a statistically significant moisture sensitivity over the second half of the century only. The period 2002–2003 (coinciding with drought) was observed as a dendrochronologically dated episode with a 40% mortality. Overall, the results point to the importance of tree competitive strength and climate as predisposing and inciting/contributing factors behind the tree mortality.     

Novel forest decline triggered by multiple interactions among climate,an introduced pathogen and bark beetles

Novel forest decline is increasing due to global environmental change, yet the causal factors and their interactions remain poorly understood. Using tree ring analyses, we show how climate and multiple biotic factors caused the decline of whitebark pine (Pinus albicaulis) in 16 stands in the southern Canadian Rockies. In our study area, 72% of whitebark pines were dead and 18% had partially dead crowns. Tree mortality peaked in the 1970s; however, the annual basal area increment of disturbed trees began to decline significantly in the late 1940s. Growth decline persisted up to 30 years before trees died from mountain pine beetle (Dendroctonus ponderosae), Ips spp. bark beetles or non‐native blister rust pathogen (Cronartium ribicola). Climate–growth relations varied over time and differed among the healthy and disturbed subpopulations of whitebark pine. Prior to the 1940s, cool temperatures limited the growth of all subpopulations. Growth of live, healthy trees became limited by drought during the cool phase (1947 –1976) of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and then reverted to positive correlations with temperature during the subsequent warm PDO phase. In the 1940s, the climate–growth relations of the disturbed subpopulations diverged from the live, healthy trees with trees ultimately killed by mountain pine beetle diverging the most. We propose that multiple factors interacted over several decades to cause unprecedented rates of whitebark pine mortality. Climatic variation during the cool PDO phase caused drought stress that may have predisposed trees to blister rust. Subsequent decline in snowpack and warming temperatures likely incited further climatic stress and with blister rust reduced tree resistance to bark beetles. Ultimately, bark beetles and blister rust contributed to tree death. Our findings suggest the complexity of whitebark pine decline and the importance of considering multiway drought–disease–insect interactions over various timescales when interpreting forest decline.     

Drought as an Inciting Mortality Factor in Scots Pine Stands of the Valais, Switzerland

During the 20th century, high mortality rates of Scots pine (Pinus silvestris L.) have been observed over large areas in the Rhône valley (Valais, Switzerland) and in other dry valleys of the European Alps. In this study, we evaluated drought as a possible inciting factor of Scots pine decline in the Valais. Averaged tree-ring widths, standardized tree-ring series, and estimated annual mortality risks were related to a drought index. Correlations between drought indices and standardized tree-ring series from 11 sites showed a moderate association. Several drought years and drought periods could be detected since 1864 that coincided with decreased growth. Although single, extreme drought years had generally a short-term, reversible effect on tree growth, multi-year drought initiated prolonged growth decreases that increased a tree’s long-term risk of death. Tree death occurred generally several years or even decades after the drought. In conclusion, drought has a limiting effect on tree growth and acts as a bottleneck event in triggering Scots pine decline in the Valais.     

Summer rainfall variability in European Mediterranean mountains from the sixteenth to the twentieth century reconstructed from tree rings

Since the end of the last glacial period, European Mediterranean mountains have provided shelter for numerous species of Eurosiberian and Boreal origin. Many of these species, surviving at the southern limit of their range in Europe and surrounded by Mediterranean ones, are relatively intolerant to summer drought and are in grave danger of loss, as a result of increasingly long and frequent droughts in this region. This is the case of the Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) and the Austrian pine (Pinus nigra ssp. salzmannii) which are found on Central Iberian Peninsula at the edge of their natural range. We used a tree ring network of these two species to reconstruct past variations in summer rainfall. The reconstruction, based upon a tree ring composite chronology of the species, dates back to 1570 (adjusted R ²?=?0.49, P?<?0.000001) and captures interannual to decadal scale variability in summer precipitation. We studied the spatial representativeness of the rainfall patterns and described the occurrence rate of extremes of this precipitation. To identify associations between macroclimatic factors and tree radial growth, we employed a principal component analysis to calculate the resultant of the relationship between the growth data of both species, using this resultant as a dependent variable of a multiple regression whose independent variables are monthly mean temperature and precipitation from the average records. Spatial correlation patterns between instrumental precipitation datasets for southern Europe and reconstructed values for the 1950–1992 period indicate that the reconstruction captures the regional signal of drought variability in the study region (the origin of this precipitation is convective: thermal low pressure zones induced in the inland northeastern areas of the Iberian Peninsula). There is a clear increase in the recurrence of extreme dry events as from the beginning of twentieth century and an abrupt change to drier conditions. There appears to be a tendency toward recurrent exceptionally dry summers, which could involve a significant change for the Eurosiberian refugee species.     

Growth, carbon-isotope discrimination, and drought-associated mortality across a Pinus ponderosa elevational transect

Drought‐ and insect‐associated tree mortality at low‐elevation ecotones is a widespread phenomenon but the underlying mechanisms are uncertain. Enhanced growth sensitivity to climate is widely observed among trees that die, indicating that a predisposing physiological mechanism(s) underlies tree mortality. We tested three, linked hypotheses regarding mortality using a ponderosa pine (Pinus ponderosa) elevation transect that experienced low‐elevation mortality following prolonged drought. The hypotheses were: (1) mortality was associated with greater growth sensitivity to climate, (2) mortality was associated with greater sensitivity of gas exchange to climate, and (3) growth and gas exchange were correlated. Support for all three hypotheses would indicate that mortality results at least in part from gas exchange constraints. We assessed growth using basal area increment normalized by tree basal area [basal area increment (BAI)/basal area (BA)] to account for differences in tree size. Whole‐crown gas exchange was indexed via estimates of the CO₂ partial pressure difference between leaf and atmosphere (p_a?p_c) derived from tree ring carbon isotope ratios (δ¹³C), corrected for temporal trends in atmospheric CO₂ and δ¹³C and elevation trends in pressure. Trees that survived the drought exhibited strong correlations among and between BAI, BAI/BA, p_a?p_c, and climate. In contrast, trees that died exhibited greater growth sensitivity to climate than trees that survived, no sensitivity of p_a?p_c to climate, and a steep relationship between p_a?p_c and BAI/BA. The p_a?p_c results are consistent with predictions from a theoretical hydraulic model, suggesting trees that died had a limited buffer between mean water availability during their lifespan and water availability during drought – i.e., chronic water stress. It appears that chronic water stress predisposed low‐elevation trees to mortality during drought via constrained gas exchange. Continued intensification of drought in mid‐latitude regions may drive increased mortality and ecotone shifts in temperate forests and woodlands.     

Drought-induced tree growth decline in the desert margins of Northwestern China

Water deficiency is the primary limiting factor for tree growth in arid and semi-arid areas. Droughts associated with rising temperatures have increased in severity and frequency globally over the past few decades, making the trees in the drought-prone sites first be affected by water shortages. However, our understanding of tree growth status in these areas, and of their response to drought, is currently insufficient; especially in the context of global warming. Here, we studied 94 Chinese pine (Pinus tabulaeformis) and 86 spruce (Picea crassifolia) trees from different altitudes [2,100–2400 m above sea level (a.s.l.)] distributed at the desert margins of Northwestern China to explore tree growth and drought response from multiple perspectives using dendroecological approaches. Significant growth decline, across all tree species and altitudes, was detected in response to an interdecadal trend towards a drier climate. Moreover, the extent of tree growth decline, the proportion of affected trees, and the degree of moisture dependence have all tended to increase in each sample site, most likely due to enhanced drought severity and duration in recent decades. The more sensitive and susceptible trees were found at lower elevations (drier sites) and may signify a higher vulnerability to heating-induced drought stress. Tree resistance to drought showed strong negative correlation with drought severity across all sample sites. However, the connection between post-drought tree resilience and drought intensity is weak, perhaps because the samples were all collected from living trees, while those that had died were not sampled. The priority for future work should be to combine surviving and dead trees simultaneously, thus achieving a more representative view of tree resilience to drought; this will improve our knowledge of forest dynamics and even ecosystem succession in these vulnerable and sensitive environments.     

Thinning improves growth and resilience after severe droughts in Quercus subpyrenaica coppice forests in the Spanish Pre-Pyrenees

During the past years, growth and productivity of different oak species have been constrained by water shortage in seasonally dry regions such as the Mediterranean Basin. Thinning could improve oak radial growth in these drought-prone regions through the reduction of tree competition for soil water in summer. However, we still lack adequate, long-term assessments on how lasting are thinning treatments effects and to what extent they contribute to oak growth recovery after drought. Here we aim: (i) to study the radial growth sensitivity to drought of Quercus subpyrenaica in the Spanish Pre-Pyrenees, and (ii) to verify if thinning represents a suitable option to enhance growth resistance to drought and post-drought growth recovery. We analysed basal area increment (BAI) trends in the period 1960–2020 of formerly coppiced oak stands thinned in 1984 and compared them with unthinned plots and also with coexisting Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) growing in thinned plots. We used the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) to estimate the severity of droughts and we also assessed climate-growth relationships. Oaks in thinned plots showed higher BAI (369 mm²) than those in unthinned plots (221 mm²). Growth rates remained higher in thinned than in unthinned plots also under severe drought stress. A severe summer drought in 1986 caused abrupt BAI reductions in both oaks (- 40.5%) and pines (- 40.1%). The positive effect of thinning on growth lasted for over 20 years and slightly declined as canopies closed. In the thinned plots, trees with smaller diameter showed the greatest growth release. Oaks in unthinned plots and Scots pine were more sensitive to short-term droughts in terms of growth reduction than oaks in thinned plots, while long term droughts have similar effects on oaks from both thinned and unthinned plots. Oaks were resilient to drought, showing recovery periods lasting from 1 to 2 years in both thinned and unthinned plots. However, intense and prolonged droughts could strongly reverse the expected growth enhancement of thinned plots, and a greater frequency of droughts would limit coppice growth and productivity thus lengthening the rotation periods.     

Growth and resilience responses of Scots pine to extreme droughts across Europe depend on predrought growth conditions

Global climate change is expected to further raise the frequency and severity of extreme events, such as droughts. The effects of extreme droughts on trees are difficult to disentangle given the inherent complexity of drought events (frequency, severity, duration, and timing during the growing season). Besides, drought effects might be modulated by trees’ phenotypic variability, which is, in turn, affected by long‐term local selective pressures and management legacies. Here we investigated the magnitude and the temporal changes of tree‐level resilience (i.e., resistance, recovery, and resilience) to extreme droughts. Moreover, we assessed the tree‐, site‐, and drought‐related factors and their interactions driving the tree‐level resilience to extreme droughts. We used a tree‐ring network of the widely distributed Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along a 2,800 km latitudinal gradient from southern Spain to northern Germany. We found that the resilience to extreme drought decreased in mid‐elevation and low productivity sites from 1980–1999 to 2000–2011 likely due to more frequent and severe droughts in the later period. Our study showed that the impact of drought on tree‐level resilience was not dependent on its latitudinal location, but rather on the type of sites trees were growing at and on their growth performances (i.e., magnitude and variability of growth) during the predrought period. We found significant interactive effects between drought duration and tree growth prior to drought, suggesting that Scots pine trees with higher magnitude and variability of growth in the long term are more vulnerable to long and severe droughts. Moreover, our results indicate that Scots pine trees that experienced more frequent droughts over the long‐term were less resistant to extreme droughts. We, therefore, conclude that the physiological resilience to extreme droughts might be constrained by their growth prior to drought, and that more frequent and longer drought periods may overstrain their potential for acclimation.     

Drought alters timing, quantity, and quality of wood formation in Scots pine

Drought has been frequently discussed as a trigger for forest decline. Today, large-scale Scots pine decline is observed in many dry inner-Alpine valleys, with drought discussed as the main causative factor. This study aimed to analyse the impact of drought on wood formation and wood structure. To study tree growth under contrasting water supply, an irrigation experiment was installed in a mature Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest at a xeric site in a dry inner-Alpine valley. Inter- and intra-annual radial increments as well as intra-annual variations in wood structure of pine trees were studied. It was found that non-irrigated trees had a noticeably shorter period of wood formation and showed a significantly lower increment. The water conduction cells were significantly enlarged and had significantly thinner cell walls compared with irrigated trees. It is concluded that pine trees under drought stress build a more effective water-conducting system (larger tracheids) at the cost of a probably higher vulnerability to cavitation (larger tracheids with thinner cell walls) but without losing their capability to recover. The significant shortening of the growth period in control trees indicated that the period where wood formation actually takes place can be much shorter under drought than the 'potential' period, meaning the phenological growth period.     

Stand- and tree-level determinants of the drought response of Scots pine radial growth

Characterizing the responses of key tree species to extreme climatic events may provide important information for predicting future forest responses to increased climatic variability. Here we aimed at determining which tree- and stand-level attributes were more closely associated with the effect of a severe drought on the radial growth of Scots pine, both in terms of immediate impact and recovery after the drought event. Our dataset included tree-ring series from 393 plots located close to the dry limit of the species range. Time series analysis and mixed-effects models were used to study the growth of each tree and its detailed response to a severe drought event that occurred in 1986. Our results showed that the radial growth responses of Scots pine were determined primarily by tree-level characteristics, such as age and previous growth rate, and secondarily by stand basal area and species richness, whereas local climate had a relatively minor effect. Fast-growing trees were more severely affected by the drought and retained proportionally lower growth rates up to three years after the episode. In absolute terms, however, fast-growing trees performed better both during and after the event. Older trees were found to be less resilient to drought. The effect of stand basal area and species richness indicated that competition for resources worsened the effects of drought, and suggested that the effect of interspecific competition may be particularly detrimental during the drought year.     

Know your limits? Climate extremes impact the range of Scots pine in unexpected places

Background and Aims Although extreme climatic events such as drought are known to modify forest dynamics by triggering tree dieback, the impact of extreme cold events, especially at the low-latitude margin (‘rear edge’) of species distributional ranges, has received little attention. The aim of this study was to examine the impact of one such extreme cold event on a population of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris) along the species’ European southern rear-edge range limit and to determine how such events can be incorporated into species distribution models (SDMs).Methods A combination of dendrochronology and field observation was used to quantify how an extreme cold event in 2001 in eastern Spain affected growth, needle loss and mortality of Scots pine. Long-term European climatic data sets were used to contextualize the severity of the 2001 event, and an SDM for Scots pine in Europe was used to predict climatic range limits.Key Results The 2001 winter reached record minimum temperatures (equivalent to the maximum European-wide diurnal ranges) and, for trees already stressed by a preceding dry summer and autumn, this caused dieback and large-scale mortality. Needle loss and mortality were particularly evident in south-facing sites, where post-event recovery was greatly reduced. The SDM predicted European Scots pine distribution mainly on the basis of responses to maximum and minimum monthly temperatures, but in comparison with this the observed effects of the 2001 cold event at the southerly edge of the range limit were unforeseen.Conclusions The results suggest that in order to better forecast how anthropogenic climate change might affect future forest distributions, distribution modelling techniques such as SDMs must incorporate climatic extremes. For Scots pine, this study shows that the effects of cold extremes should be included across the entire distribution margin, including the southern ‘rear edge’, in order to avoid biased predictions based solely on warmer climatic scenarios.     

The role of climate change in the widespread mortality of holm oak in open woodlands of Southwestern Spain

Forest decline and increasing tree mortality are of global concern and the identification of the causes is necessary to develop preventive measures. Global warming is an emerging factor responsible for the increasing tree mortality in drought-prone ecosystems. In the southwestern Iberian Peninsula, Mediterranean holm oak open woodlands currently undergo large-scale population-level tree die-off. In this region, temperature and aridity have increased during recent decades, but the possible role of climate change in the current oak mortality has not been investigated.To assess the role of climate change in oak die-off in managed open woodlands in southwestern Spain, we analyzed climate change-related signals in century-long tree ring chronologies of dead holm oaks. We examined the high/low-frequency variability in growth and the relationship between growth and climate.Similar to other Mediterranean forests, growth was favored by precipitation from autumn of the year prior to ring formation to spring of the year of ring formation, whereas high temperatures during spring limited growth. Since the 1970s, the intensity of the high-frequency response to water availability increased simultaneously with temperature and aridity. The growth trends matched those of climatic changes. Growth suppressions occurred during droughts in the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s. Widespread stand-level, age-independent mortality occurred since 2005 and affected trees that cannot be considered old for the species standards.The close relationship between growth and climate indicate that climate change strongly controlled the growth patterns. This suggests that harsher climatic conditions, especially increased aridity, affected the tree performance and could have played a significant role in the mortality process. Climate change may have exacerbated or predisposed trees to the impact of other factors (e.g. intense management and pathogens). These observations could suggest a similar future increase in oak mortality which may occur in more northern oak open woodlands if aridity further increases.     

Connections between climatic variables and the growth and needle dynamics of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) in Estonia and Lapland

The relationships between climatic variables and Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) growth and needle dynamics were studied in three stands in Estonia and in four stands located near the northern timberline in Lapland. The trees sampled in Estonia had low correlations with the analysed climatic variables (air temperature, precipitation and indices of atmospheric circulation). Moreover, the weak cross-correlation of the time-series of the Estonian sample trees indicated that Scots pine is affected mainly by local factors in that region. In Lapland, however, height increment and needle production correlated strongly among trees within a stand (mean r=0.45 and 0.46, respectively) and between stands (r=0.32 and 0.37). Radial increment also showed a high inter-correlation among the trees within a stand in Lapland (r=0.45). Both height increment and needle production were strongly influenced by the temperature regime of the previous summer in Lapland (mean r=0.64 and 0.64, respectively). Radial increment was correlated with the mean July temperature of the current year (mean r=0.29). The correlations between the indices of atmospheric circulation and tree attributes were weak, while the strongest correlation was between the Ponta Delgada NAO index (PD–NAO) and height increment and needle production in Lapland. Height increment, needle production and radial increment have increased since the 1990s in the trees growing in Lapland. This may indicate a positive effect of climate warming on tree growth in Lapland. In Estonia, where climatic conditions do not limit tree growth, the climate warming seems not to directly influence the growth and needle dynamics of Scots pine.     

Assessing forest vulnerability to climate warming using a process‐based model of tree growth: bad prospects for rear‐edges

Growth models can be used to assess forest vulnerability to climate warming. If global warming amplifies water deficit in drought‐prone areas, tree populations located at the driest and southernmost distribution limits (rear‐edges) should be particularly threatened. Here, we address these statements by analyzing and projecting growth responses to climate of three major tree species (silver fir, Abies alba; Scots pine, Pinus sylvestris; and mountain pine, Pinus uncinata) in mountainous areas of NE Spain. This region is subjected to Mediterranean continental conditions, it encompasses wide climatic, topographic and environmental gradients, and, more importantly, it includes rear‐edges of the continuous distributions of these tree species. We used tree‐ring width data from a network of 110 forests in combination with the process‐based Vaganov–Shashkin‐Lite growth model and climate–growth analyses to forecast changes in tree growth during the 21st century. Climatic projections were based on four ensembles CO₂ emission scenarios. Warm and dry conditions during the growing season constrain silver fir and Scots pine growth, particularly at the species rear‐edge. By contrast, growth of high‐elevation mountain pine forests is enhanced by climate warming. The emission scenario (RCP 8.5) corresponding to the most pronounced warming (+1.4 to 4.8 °C) forecasted mean growth reductions of ?10.7% and ?16.4% in silver fir and Scots pine, respectively, after 2050. This indicates that rising temperatures could amplify drought stress and thus constrain the growth of silver fir and Scots pine rear‐edge populations growing at xeric sites. Contrastingly, mountain pine growth is expected to increase by +12.5% due to a longer and warmer growing season. The projections of growth reduction in silver fir and Scots pine portend dieback and a contraction of their species distribution areas through potential local extinctions of the most vulnerable driest rear‐edge stands. Our modeling approach provides accessible tools to evaluate forest vulnerability to warmer conditions.