Likelihood methods for detecting temporal shifts in diversification rates

Maximum likelihood is a potentially powerful approach for investigating the tempo of diversification using molecular phylogenetic data. Likelihood methods distinguish between rate-constant and rate-variable models of diversification by fitting birth-death models to phylogenetic data. Because model selection in this context is a test of the null hypothesis that diversification rates have been constant over time, strategies for selecting best-fit models must minimize Type I error rates while retaining power to detect rate variation when it is present. Here I examine model selection, parameter estimation, and power to reject the null hypothesis using likelihood models based on the birth-death process. The Akaike information criterion (AIC) has often been used to select among diversification models; however, I find that selecting models based on the lowest AIC score leads to a dramatic inflation of the Type I error rate. When appropriately corrected to reduce Type I error rates, the birth-death likelihood approach performs as well or better than the widely used gamma statistic, at least when diversification rates have shifted abruptly over time. Analyses of datasets simulated under a range of rate-variable diversification scenarios indicate that the birth-death likelihood method has much greater power to detect variation in diversification rates when extinction is present. Furthermore, this method appears to be the only approach available that can distinguish between a temporal increase in diversification rates and a rate-constant model with nonzero extinction. I illustrate use of the method by analyzing a published phylogeny for Australian agamid lizards.     

Rapid diversification and not clade age explains high diversity in neotropical Adelpha butterflies

Latitudinal gradients in species richness are among the most well-known biogeographic patterns in nature, and yet there remains much debate and little consensus over the ecological and evolutionary causes of these gradients. Here, we evaluated whether two prominent alternative hypotheses (namely differences in diversification rate or clade age) could account for the latitudinal diversity gradient in one of the most speciose neotropical butterfly genera (Adelpha) and its close relatives. We generated a multilocus phylogeny of a diverse group of butterflies in the containing tribe Limenitidini, which has both temperate and tropical representatives. Our results suggest there is no relationship between clade age and species richness that could account for the diversity gradient, but that instead it could be explained by a significantly higher diversification rate within the predominantly tropical genus Adelpha. An apparent early larval host-plant shift to Rubiaceae and other plant families suggests that the availability of new potential host plants probably contributed to an increase in diversification of Adelpha in the lowland Neotropics. Collectively, our results support the hypothesis that the equatorial peak in species richness observed within Adelpha is the result of increased diversification rate in the last 10-15 Myr rather than a function of clade age, perhaps reflecting adaptive divergence in response to the dramatic host-plant diversity found within neotropical ecosystems.     

Heterogeneity in the rate of molecular sequence evolution substantially impacts the accuracy of detecting shifts in diversification rates

As species richness varies along the tree of life, there is a great interest in identifying factors that affect the rates by which lineages speciate or go extinct. To this end, theoretical biologists have developed a suite of phylogenetic comparative methods that aim to identify where shifts in diversification rates had occurred along a phylogeny and whether they are associated with some traits. Using these methods, numerous studies have predicted that speciation and extinction rates vary across the tree of life. In this study, we show that asymmetric rates of sequence evolution lead to systematic biases in the inferred phylogeny, which in turn lead to erroneous inferences regarding lineage diversification patterns. The results demonstrate that as the asymmetry in sequence evolution rates increases, so does the tendency to select more complicated models that include the possibility of diversification rate shifts. These results thus suggest that any inference regarding shifts in diversification pattern should be treated with great caution, at least until any biases regarding the molecular substitution rate have been ruled out.     

Body size evolution simultaneously creates and collapses species boundaries in a clade of scincid lizards

Speciation is generally viewed as an irreversible process, although habitat alterations can erase reproductive barriers if divergence between ecologically differentiated species is recent. Reversed speciation might also occur if geographical contact is established between species that have evolved the same reproductive isolating barrier in parallel. Here, we demonstrate a loss of intrinsic reproductive isolation in a clade of scincid lizards as a result of parallel body size evolution, which has allowed for gene flow where large-bodied lineages are in secondary contact. An mtDNA phylogeny confirms the monophyly of the Plestiodon skiltonianus species complex, but rejects that of two size-differentiated ecomorphs. Mate compatibility experiments show that the high degree of body size divergence imposes a strong reproductive barrier between the two morphs; however, the strength of the barrier is greatly diminished between parallel-evolved forms. Since two large-bodied lineages are in geographical contact in the Sierra Nevada Mountains of California, we were also able to test for postzygotic isolation under natural conditions. Analyses of amplified fragment length polymorphisms show that extensive gene exchange is occurring across the contact zone, resulting in an overall pattern consistent with isolation by distance. These results provide evidence of reversed speciation between clades that diverged from a common ancestor more than 12Myr ago.     

Specialization and generalization in the diversification of phytophagous insects: tests of the musical chairs and oscillation hypotheses

Evolutionary biologists have often assumed that ecological generalism comes at the expense of less intense exploitation of specific resources and that this trade-off will promote the evolution of ecologically specialized daughter species. Using a phylogenetic comparative approach with butterflies as a model system, we test hypotheses that incorporate changes in niche breadth and location into explanations of the taxonomic diversification of insect herbivores. Specifically, we compare the oscillation hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant generalists giving rise to specialist daughter species, to the musical chairs hypothesis, where speciation is driven by host-plant switching, without changes in niche breadth. Contrary to the predictions of the oscillation hypothesis, we recover a negative relationship between host-plant breadth and diversification rate and find that changes in host breadth are seldom coupled to speciation events. By contrast, we present evidence for a positive relationship between rates of host switching and butterfly diversification, consonant with the musical chairs hypothesis. These results suggest that the costs of trophic generalism in plant-feeding insects may have been overvalued and that transitions from generalists to ecological specialists may not be an important driver of speciation in general.     

Dispersal has inhibited avian diversification in Australasian archipelagoes

Different models of speciation predict contrasting patterns in the relationship between the dispersal ability of lineages and their diversification rates. This relationship is expected to be negative in isolation-limited models and positive in founder-event models. In addition, the combination of negative and positive effects of dispersal on speciation can result in higher diversification rates at intermediate levels of dispersal ability. Using molecular phylogenies to estimate diversification rates, and wing morphology to estimate dispersal ability, we analysed the influence of dispersal on diversification in the avifauna of Australasian archipelagoes. Contrary to expectations given the fragmented nature of island systems, the relationship between dispersal ability and diversification rate was monotonically negative. While multiple mechanisms could generate this pattern, they all share a phase of range expansion that is decoupled from speciation.     

Large-scale patterns of diversification in the widespread legume genus Senna and the evolutionary role of extrafloral nectaries

Unraveling the diversification history of old, species-rich and widespread clades is difficult because of extinction, undersampling, and taxonomic uncertainty. In the context of these challenges, we investigated the timing and mode of lineage diversification in Senna (Leguminosae) to gain insights into the evolutionary role of extrafloral nectaries (EFNs). EFNs secrete nectar, attracting ants and forming ecologically important ant-plant mutualisms. In Senna, EFNs characterize one large clade (EFN clade), including 80% of its 350 species. Taxonomic accounts make Senna the largest caesalpinioid genus, but quantitative comparisons to other taxa require inferences about rates. Molecular dating analyses suggest that Senna originated in the early Eocene, and its major lineages appeared during early/mid Eocene to early Oligocene. EFNs evolved in the late Eocene, after the main radiation of ants. The EFN clade diversified faster, becoming significantly more species-rich than non-EFN clades. The shift in diversification rates associated with EFN evolution supports the hypothesis that EFNs represent a (relatively old) key innovation in Senna. EFNs may have promoted the colonization of new habitats appearing with the early uplift of the Andes. This would explain the distinctive geographic concentration of the EFN clade in South America.     

FiSSE: A simple nonparametric test for the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates

It is widely assumed that phenotypic traits can influence rates of speciation and extinction, and several statistical approaches have been used to test for correlations between character states and lineage diversification. Recent work suggests that model‐based tests of state‐dependent speciation and extinction are sensitive to model inadequacy and phylogenetic pseudoreplication. We describe a simple nonparametric statistical test (“FiSSE”) to assess the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates. The method involves computing a test statistic that compares the distributions of branch lengths for lineages with and without a character state of interest. The value of the test statistic is compared to a null distribution generated by simulating character histories on the observed phylogeny. Our tests show that FiSSE can reliably infer trait‐dependent speciation on phylogenies of several hundred tips. The method has low power to detect trait‐dependent extinction but can infer state‐dependent differences in speciation even when net diversification rates are constant. We assemble a range of macroevolutionary scenarios that are problematic for likelihood‐based methods, and we find that FiSSE does not show similarly elevated false positive rates. We suggest that nonparametric statistical approaches, such as FiSSE, provide an important complement to formal process‐based models for trait‐dependent diversification.     

Coevolution is linked with phenotypic diversification but not speciation in avian brood parasites

Coevolution is often invoked as an engine of biological diversity. Avian brood parasites and their hosts provide one of the best-known examples of coevolution. Brood parasites lay their eggs in the nests of other species, selecting for host defences and reciprocal counteradaptations in parasites. In theory, this arms race should promote increased rates of speciation and phenotypic evolution. Here, we use recently developed methods to test whether the three largest avian brood parasitic lineages show changes in rates of phenotypic diversity and speciation relative to non-parasitic lineages. Our results challenge the accepted paradigm, and show that there is little consistent evidence that lineages of brood parasites have higher speciation or extinction rates than non-parasitic species. However, we provide the first evidence that the evolution of brood parasitic behaviour may affect rates of evolution in morphological traits associated with parasitism. Specifically, egg size and the colour and pattern of plumage have evolved up to nine times faster in parasitic than in non-parasitic cuckoos. Moreover, cuckoo clades of parasitic species that are sympatric (and share similar host genera) exhibit higher rates of phenotypic evolution. This supports the idea that competition for hosts may be linked to the high phenotypic diversity found in parasitic cuckoos.     

Rapid diversification, incomplete isolation, and the "speciation clock" in North American salamanders (Genus Plethodon): testing the hybrid swarm hypothesis of rapid radiation

The history of life has been marked by several spectacular radiations, in which many lineages arise over a short period of time. A possible consequence of such rapid splitting in the recent past is that the intrinsic barriers that prevent gene flow between many species may have too little time to develop fully, leading to extensive hybridization among recently evolved lineages. The salamander genus Plethodon in eastern North America has been proposed as a possible example of this scenario, but without explicit statistical tests. In this paper, we present a nearly comprehensive phylogeny for the 45 extant species of eastern Plethodon, based on DNA sequences of mitochondrial (two genes, 1335 base pairs) and nuclear genes (two genes, up to 3481 base pairs). We then use this phylogeny to examine rates and patterns of diversification and hybridization. We find significantly rapid diversification within the glutinosus species group. Examining patterns of natural hybridization in light of the phylogeny shows considerable hybridization within this clade, including introgression between species that are morphologically distinct and distantly related. Reproductive isolation increases over time and may be very weak among the most recently diverged species. These results suggest that the origin of species and the evolution of intrinsic reproductive isolating mechanisms, rather than being synonymous, may be decoupled in some cases (i.e., rapid origin of lineages outstrips the "speciation clock"). In contrast to the conclusions of a recent review of adaptive radiation and hybridization, we suggest that extensive hybridization sometimes may be a consequence, rather than a cause, of rapid diversification.     

Global variation in diversification rates of flowering plants: energy vs. climate change

We used the largest DNA-based phylogeny of flowering plants to date to evaluate the importance of energy vs. past climate change in predicting global patterns in diversification. Relative diversification rates increased towards the equator, suggesting that differences in per-lineage net diversification may be an important component of the latitudinal diversity gradient. The amplitude of Quaternary climate oscillations experienced by families explained variation in diversification equally well compared to contemporary energy measures, and energy and climate change measures were intercorrelated, making it difficult to reject either as a causal mechanism. Many putative mechanisms linking diversification to energy availability do not apply to plants, whereas the climate change mechanism has more support. We also present the first global map of angiosperm diversification, showing that, after correcting for family range-size, tropical diversification rates were fastest for clades currently in regions with high endemic species richness outside the main lowland rainforest areas.     

Nonstochastic variation of species-level diversification rates within angiosperms

Variations in the origination and extinction rates of species over geological time often are linked with a range of factors, including the evolution of key innovations, changes in ecosystem structure, and environmental factors such as shifts in climate and physical geography. Before hypothesizing causality of a single factor, it is critical to demonstrate that the observed variation in diversification is significantly greater than one would expect due to natural stochasticity in the evolutionary branching process. Here, we use a likelihood-ratio test to compare taxonomic rate heterogeneity to a neutral birth-death model, using data on well-supported sister pairs of taxa and their species richness. We test the likelihood that the distribution of extant species among angiosperm genera and families could be the result of constant diversification rates. Results strongly support the conclusion that there is significantly more heterogeneity in diversity at the species level within angiosperms than would be expected due to stochastic processes. This result is consistent in datasets of genus pairs and family pairs and is not affected significantly by degrading pairs to simulate inaccuracy in the assumption of simultaneous origin of sister taxa. When we parse taxon pairs among higher groups of angiosperms, results indicate that a constant rates model is not rejected by rosid and basal eudicot pairs but is rejected by asterid and eumagnoliid pairs. These results provide strong support for the hypothesis that species-level rates of origination and/or extinction have varied nonrandomly within angiosperms and that the magnitude of heterogeneity varies among major groups within angiosperms.     

Estimating diversification rates for higher taxa: BAMM can give problematic estimates of rates and rate shifts

Estimates of diversification rates are invaluable for many macroevolutionary studies. Recently, an approach called BAMM (Bayesian Analysis of Macro‐evolutionary Mixtures) has become widely used for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts. At the same time, several articles have concluded that estimates of net diversification rates from the method‐of‐moments (MS) estimators are inaccurate. Yet, no studies have compared the ability of these two methods to accurately estimate clade diversification rates. Here, we use simulations to compare their performance. We found that BAMM yielded relatively weak relationships between true and estimated diversification rates. This occurred because BAMM underestimated the number of rates shifts across each tree, and assigned high rates to small clades with low rates. Errors in both speciation and extinction rates contributed to these errors, showing that using BAMM to estimate only speciation rates is also problematic. In contrast, the MS estimators (particularly using stem group ages), yielded stronger relationships between true and estimated diversification rates, by roughly twofold. Furthermore, the MS approach remained relatively accurate when diversification rates were heterogeneous within clades, despite the widespread assumption that it requires constant rates within clades. Overall, we caution that BAMM may be problematic for estimating diversification rates and rate shifts.     

Molecular phylogeny and ecological diversification in a clade of New World songbirds (genus Vireo)

We constructed a molecular phylogeny for a clade of eye-ringed vireos ( Vireo flavifrons and the V . solitarius complex) to examine existing hypotheses of speciation and ecological diversification. Complete sequences of the mtDNA cytochrome b gene were obtained from 47 individuals of this group plus four vireonid outgroups. Mean levels of sequence divergence in the clade varied from 0.29% to 5.7%. Differences were greatest between V . flavifrons and four taxa of ' V . solitarius '. The latter separated into three taxonomic, geographical and ecological groups: V . plumbeus plumbeus, V . cassinii cassinii , and V . solitarius solitarius plus V . solitarius alticola . These differed by an average of 2.6–3.2%. Populations within each group revealed low levels of sequence variation ( x- = 0.20%) and little geographical structuring. The mtDNA data generally corroborate results from allozymes. V. plumbeus shows a loss of yellow-green carotenoid pigmentation from the ancestral condition. The occupancy of relatively dry habitats by this species and V . cassinii represents a derived ecological shift from more-humid environments occupied by other species of vireonids. Ecological divergence in this clade occurred in allopatry and is associated with generic-level stability in morphometrics and foraging styles. Migratory behaviour and seasonal habitat shifts apparently evolved multiple times in vireos breeding in temperate environments. Present geographical and ecological distributions, and low levels of intrataxon genetic divergence, are hypothesized to be the result of postglacial regionalization of climate–plant associations and rapid northward expansion of breeding ranges.     

Ecological limits and diversification rate: alternative paradigms to explain the variation in species richness among clades and regions

Diversification rate is one of the most important metrics in macroecological and macroevolutionary studies. Here I demonstrate that diversification analyses can be misleading when researchers assume that diversity increases unbounded through time, as is typical in molecular phylogenetic studies. If clade diversity is regulated by ecological factors, then species richness may be independent of clade age and it may not be possible to infer the rate at which diversity arose. This has substantial consequences for the interpretation of many studies that have contrasted rates of diversification among clades and regions. Often, it is possible to estimate the total diversification experienced by a clade but not diversification rate itself. I show that the evidence for ecological limits on diversity in higher taxa is widespread. Finally, I explore the implications of ecological limits for a variety of ecological and evolutionary questions that involve inferences about speciation and extinction rates from phylogenetic data.     

Self-sterility in flowering plants: preventing self-fertilization increases family diversification rates

Background and Scope

New data are presented on the distribution and frequency of self-sterility (SS) – predominantly pre-zygotic self-incompatibility (SI) systems – in flowering plants and the hypothesis is tested that families with self-sterile taxa have higher net diversification rates (DRs) than those with exclusively self-compatible taxa using both absolute and relative rate tests.

Key Results

Three major forms of SI systems (where pollen is rejected at the stigmatic, stylar or ovarian interface) are found to occur in the oldest families of flowering plants, with times of divergence >100 million years before the present (mybp), while post-fertilization SS and heterostyly appear in families with crown ages of 81 and 87 mybp, respectively. It is also founnd that many (22) angiosperm families exhibit >1 SI phenotype and that the distribution of different types of SS does not show strong phylogenetic clustering, collectively suggesting that SS and SI systems have evolved repeatedly de novo in angiosperm history. Families bearing self-sterile taxa have higher absolute DRs using all available calibrations of the angiosperm tree, and this affect is caused mostly by the high DR of families with homomorphic SI systems (in particular stigmatic SI) or those in which multiple SS/SI phenotypes have been observed (polymorphic). Lastly, using sister comparisons, it is further demonstrated that in 29 of 38 sister pairs (including 95 families), the self-sterile sister group had higher species richness and DR than its self-compatible sister based on either the total number of taxa in the clade with SS or only the estimated fraction to harbour SS based on literature surveys.

Conclusions

Collectively, these analyses point to the importance of SS, particularly pre-zygotic SI in the evolution of flowering plants.