How much land‐based greenhouse gas mitigation can be achieved without compromising food security and environmental goals?

Feeding 9–10 billion people by 2050 and preventing dangerous climate change are two of the greatest challenges facing humanity. Both challenges must be met while reducing the impact of land management on ecosystem services that deliver vital goods and services, and support human health and well‐being. Few studies to date have considered the interactions between these challenges. In this study we briefly outline the challenges, review the supply‐ and demand‐side climate mitigation potential available in the Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use AFOLU sector and options for delivering food security. We briefly outline some of the synergies and trade‐offs afforded by mitigation practices, before presenting an assessment of the mitigation potential possible in the AFOLU sector under possible future scenarios in which demand‐side measures codeliver to aid food security. We conclude that while supply‐side mitigation measures, such as changes in land management, might either enhance or negatively impact food security, demand‐side mitigation measures, such as reduced waste or demand for livestock products, should benefit both food security and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation. Demand‐side measures offer a greater potential (1.5–15.6 Gt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1) in meeting both challenges than do supply‐side measures (1.5–4.3 Gt CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 at carbon prices between 20 and 100 US$ tCO₂‐eq. yr^?1), but given the enormity of challenges, all options need to be considered. Supply‐side measures should be implemented immediately, focussing on those that allow the production of more agricultural product per unit of input. For demand‐side measures, given the difficulties in their implementation and lag in their effectiveness, policy should be introduced quickly, and should aim to codeliver to other policy agenda, such as improving environmental quality or improving dietary health. These problems facing humanity in the 21st Century are extremely challenging, and policy that addresses multiple objectives is required now more than ever.     

Contribution of Urban Water Supply to Greenhouse Gas Emissions in China

Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use in the water sector in China have not received the same attention as emissions from other sectors, but interest in this area is growing. This study uses 2011 data to investigate GHG emissions from electricity use for urban water supply in China. The objective is to measure the climate cobenefit of water conservation, compare China with other areas on a number of emissions indicators, and assist in development of policy that promotes low‐emission water supply. Per capita and per unit GHG emissions for water supplied to urban areas in China in 2011 were 24.5 kilograms carbon dioxide equivalent (kg CO₂‐eq) per capita per year and 0.213 kg CO₂‐eq per cubic meter, respectively. Comparison of provinces within China revealed that GHG emissions for urban water supply as a percentage of total province‐wide emissions from electricity use correlate directly with the rate of leakage and water loss within the water distribution system. This highlights controlling leakage as a possible means of reducing the contribution of urban water supply to GHG emissions. An inverse correlation was established between GHG emissions per unit water and average per capita daily water use, which implies that water demand tends to be higher when per unit emissions are lower. China's high emission factor for electricity generation inflates emissions for urban water supply. Shifting from emissions‐intensive electricity sources is crucial to reducing emissions in the water supply sector.     

How much do direct livestock emissions actually contribute to global warming?

Agriculture directly contributes about 10%–12% of current global anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions, mostly from livestock. However, such percentage estimates are based on global warming potentials (GWPs), which do not measure the actual warming caused by emissions and ignore the fact that methane does not accumulate in the atmosphere in the same way as CO₂. Here, we employ a simple carbon cycle‐climate model, historical estimates and future projections of livestock emissions to infer the fraction of actual warming that is attributable to direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions now and in future, and to CO₂ from pasture conversions, without relying on GWPs. We find that direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions caused about 19% of the total modelled warming of 0.81°C from all anthropogenic sources in 2010. CO₂ from pasture conversions contributed at least another 0.03°C, bringing the warming directly attributable to livestock to 23% of the total warming in 2010. The significance of direct livestock emissions to future warming depends strongly on global actions to reduce emissions from other sectors. Direct non‐CO₂ livestock emissions would contribute only about 5% of the warming in 2100 if emissions from other sectors increase unabated, but could constitute as much as 18% (0.27°C) of the warming in 2100 if global CO₂ emissions from other sectors are reduced to near or below zero by 2100, consistent with the goal of limiting warming to well below 2°C. These estimates constitute a lower bound since indirect emissions linked to livestock feed production and supply chains were not included. Our estimates demonstrate that expanding the mitigation potential and realizing substantial reductions of direct livestock non‐CO₂ emissions through demand and supply side measures can make an important contribution to achieve the stringent mitigation goals set out in the Paris Agreement, including by increasing the carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C goal.     

Decoupling Analysis of the Environmental Mountain—with Case Studies from China

The resource‐development trajectory of developed countries after the Industrial Revolution of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries can be portrayed as an “environmental mountain” (EM). It is important for developing countries to decouple their resource use from economic growth and tunnel through the EM. In this study, we embedded the decoupling indicators for resource use and waste emissions into EM curves to quantify China's progress in tunneling through the EM over a specific time period. Five case studies regarding the conditions required for decoupling energy consumption, crude steel production, cement production, CO₂ emissions, and SO₂ emissions from economic growth in China were conducted. The results indicated that during 1985–2010 the trajectories of energy consumption, and CO₂ and SO₂ emissions in China met the requirements for tunneling through the EM, but the trajectories of cement and steel production did not. Based on these results, suggestions regarding China's environmental policies are provided to enable the country to tunnel through the EM.     

Is Coal Fly Ash a Suitable Alkaline Resource for Manufacturing New Calcium Carbonate–based Cements? A Systems Analytical Evaluation

At present, the production of cement contributes approximately 8% to global carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, whereas a further increase in the future is expected. To reduce these emissions, a prominent measure of the cement industry is to use materials such as coal fly ash (CFA) as a cement substitute, but the availability of qualified ash is limited. The development of “green cements” with lower CO₂ emissions attracts attention within the cement industry and politics. Recently, a new invention for a calcium carbonate (CaCO₃)‐based cement intends to use CFA as an alkaline resource during a manufacturing process based on CO₂ mineralization converting anthropogenic CO₂ into stable calcareous materials by using calcium‐bearing brines. In our systems analysis, we demonstrate that the alkalinity of CFA usable for mass production of cements is poor. The alkalinity of CFA primarily depends on the dissolution of free lime. For CO₂ mineralization, the resulting alkalinity is just sufficient to precipitate the calcium supplied by the CFA itself, and the capacity of CO₂ mineralization is low. Thus, CFA could only be used as a supplementary resource. Even at locations where exceptional calcium‐rich ash is available, very large amounts of ash must be processed. Globally, only a few million tonnes of calcium could be extracted in this way. Because qualified CFA is already used in the construction industry, the extraction of calcium from nonqualified, more polluted CFA is associated with a risk of unwanted environmental effects and implies an elaborated pollutant control.     

Exploring the emergence of a biojet fuel supply chain in Brazil: An agent‐based modeling approach

The aviation industry accounts for more than 2% of global CO₂ emissions. Biojet fuel is expected to make an essential contribution to the decarbonization of the aviation sector. Brazil is seen as a key player in developing sustainable aviation biofuels owing to its long‐standing experience with biofuels. Nevertheless, a clear understanding of what policies may be conducive to the emergence of a biojet fuel supply chain is lacking. We extended a spatially explicit agent‐based model to explore the emergence of a biojet fuel supply chain from the existing sugarcane–ethanol supply chain. The model accounts for new policies (feed‐in tariff and capital investment subsidy) and new considerations into the decision making about production and investment in processing capacity. We found that in a tax‐free gasoline regime, a feed‐in tariff above 3 R$/L stimulates the production of biojet fuel. At higher levels of gasoline taxation (i.e., 2.46 R$/L), however, any feed‐in tariff is insufficient to ensure the production of biojet fuel. Thus, at these levels of gasoline taxation, it is needed to introduce regulations on the production of biojet fuel to ensure its production. Given the current debate about the future direction of the biofuel policy in Brazil, we recommend further research into the effect of market mechanisms based on greenhouse gas emissions on the emergence of a Brazilian biojet fuel supply chain.     

Methane emission from global livestock sector during 1890–2014: Magnitude,trends and spatiotemporal patterns

Human demand for livestock products has increased rapidly during the past few decades largely due to dietary transition and population growth, with significant impact on climate and the environment. The contribution of ruminant livestock to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions has been investigated extensively at various scales from regional to global, but the long‐term trend, regional variation and drivers of methane (CH₄) emission remain unclear. In this study, we use Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Tier II guidelines to quantify the evolution of CH₄ emissions from ruminant livestock during 1890–2014. We estimate that total CH₄ emissions in 2014 was 97.1 million tonnes (MT) CH₄ or 2.72 Gigatonnes (Gt) CO₂‐eq (1 MT = 10¹² g, 1 Gt = 10¹⁵ g) from ruminant livestock, which accounted for 47%–54% of all non‐CO₂ GHG emissions from the agricultural sector. Our estimate shows that CH₄ emissions from the ruminant livestock had increased by 332% (73.6 MT CH₄ or 2.06 Gt CO₂‐eq) since the 1890s. Our results further indicate that livestock sector in drylands had 36% higher emission intensity (CH₄ emissions/km²) compared to that in nondrylands in 2014, due to the combined effect of higher rate of increase in livestock population and low feed quality. We also find that the contribution of developing regions (Africa, Asia and Latin America) to the total CH₄ emissions had increased from 51.7% in the 1890s to 72.5% in the 2010s. These changes were driven by increases in livestock numbers (LU units) by up to 121% in developing regions, but decreases in livestock numbers and emission intensity (emission/km²) by up to 47% and 32%, respectively, in developed regions. Our results indicate that future increases in livestock production would likely contribute to higher CH₄ emissions, unless effective strategies to mitigate GHG emissions in livestock system are implemented.     

Hybrid Input‐Output Life Cycle Assessment of First‐ and Second‐Generation Ethanol Production Technologies in Brazil

A hybrid approach combining life cycle assessment and input‐output analysis was used to demonstrate the economic and environmental benefits of current and future improvements in agricultural and industrial technologies for ethanol production in Brazilian biorefineries. In this article, three main scenarios were evaluated: first‐generation ethanol production with the average current technology; the improved current technology; and the integration of improved first‐ and second‐generation ethanol production. For the improved first‐generation scenario, a US$1 million increase in ethanol demand can give rise to US$2.5 million of total economic activity in the Brazilian economy when direct and indirect purchases of inputs are considered. This value is slightly higher than the economic activity (US$1.8 million) for an energy equivalent amount of gasoline. The integration of first‐ and second‐generation technologies significantly reduces the total greenhouse gas emissions of ethanol production: 14.6 versus 86.4 grams of carbon dioxide equivalent per megajoule (g CO₂‐eq/MJ) for gasoline. Moreover, emissions of ethanol can be negative (–10.5 g CO₂‐eq/MJ) when the system boundary is expanded to account for surplus bioelectricity by displacement of natural gas thermal electricity generation considering electricity produced in first‐generation optimized biorefineries.     

中国电力行业CO2减排潜力及其贡献因素

电力行业低碳转型是中国低碳经济转型进程中关键行业之一,如何科学分析电力行业的碳减排潜力,确定操作性强的低碳转型路线、提出有效的政策措施是中国政府亟待解决的焦点问题之一。考虑终端电力消费、低碳能源发电占比、火力发电结构、火力发电效率、线损率等因素,构建了自底向上的电力行业CO2排放核算模型,在此基础上,利用情景分析方法探索中国电力行业2015和2020年的CO2减排潜力,进一步利用对数平均权重分解法(LMDI,Logarithmic Mean weight Divisia Index method)对电力行业CO2减排影响因素的贡献度做了归因分析。结果显示,相比基准情景,在当前政策情景和低碳政策情景下,电力行业将分别带来27.0亿t和36.9亿t的CO2减排量。低碳能源发电和火力发电效率是未来对CO2减排最重要的两个贡献因素。终端电力消费量一直是促进电力行业CO2排放增长最重要的贡献因素,因此通过电力需求侧管理等手段控制电力消费量对电力行业的低碳发展至关重要。最后结合减排贡献因素分析的结果为中国电力行业低碳发展提出了相应的政策建议。     

Indirect carbon dioxide emissions from producing bioenergy from forest harvest residues

Forest harvest residues are important raw materials for bioenergy in regions practicing forestry. Removing these residues from a harvest site reduces the carbon stock of the forest compared with conventional stem‐only harvest because less litter in left on the site. The indirect carbon dioxide (CO₂) emission from producing bioenergy occur when carbon in the logging residues is emitted into the atmosphere at once through combustion, instead of being released little by little as a result of decomposition at the harvest sites. In this study (1) we introduce an approach to calculate this indirect emission from using logging residues for bioenergy production, and (2) estimate this emission at a typical target of harvest residue removal, i.e. boreal Norway spruce forest in Finland. The removal of stumps caused a larger indirect emission per unit of energy produced than the removal of branches because of a lower decomposition rate of the stumps. The indirect emission per unit of energy produced decreased with time since starting to collect the harvest residues as a result of decomposition at older harvest sites. During the 100 years of conducting this practice, the indirect emission from average‐sized branches (diameter 2 cm) decreased from 340 to 70 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1 and that from stumps (diameter 26 cm) from 340 to 160 kg CO₂ eq. MWh^?1. These emissions are an order of magnitude larger than the other emissions (collecting, transporting, etc.) from the bioenergy production chain. When the bioenergy production was started, the total emissions were comparable to fossil fuels. The practice had to be carried out for 22 (stumps) or four (branches) years until the total emissions dropped below the emissions of natural gas. Our results emphasize the importance of accounting for land‐use‐related indirect emissions to correctly estimate the efficiency of bioenergy in reducing CO₂ emission into the atmosphere.     

Enhanced regional terrestrial carbon uptake over Korea revealed by atmospheric CO2 measurements from 1999 to 2017

Understanding changes in terrestrial carbon balance is important to improve our knowledge of the regional carbon cycle and climate change. However, evaluating regional changes in the terrestrial carbon balance is challenging due to the lack of surface flux measurements. This study reveals that the terrestrial carbon uptake over the Republic of Korea has been enhanced from 1999 to 2017 by analyzing long‐term atmospheric CO₂ concentration measurements at the Anmyeondo Station (36.53°N, 126.32°E) located in the western coast. The influence of terrestrial carbon flux on atmospheric CO₂ concentrations (ΔCO₂) is estimated from the difference of CO₂ concentrations that were influenced by the land sector (through easterly winds) and the Yellow Sea sector (through westerly winds). We find a significant trend in ΔCO₂ of ?4.75 ppm per decade (p < .05) during the vegetation growing season (May through October), suggesting that the regional terrestrial carbon uptake has increased relative to the surrounding ocean areas. Combined analysis with satellite measured normalized difference vegetation index and gross primary production shows that the enhanced carbon uptake is associated with significant nationwide increases in vegetation and its production. Process‐based terrestrial model and inverse model simulations estimate that regional terrestrial carbon uptake increases by up to 18.9 and 8.0 Tg C for the study period, accounting for 13.4% and 5.7% of the average annual domestic carbon emissions, respectively. Atmospheric chemical transport model simulations indicate that the enhanced terrestrial carbon sink is the primary reason for the observed ΔCO₂ trend rather than anthropogenic emissions and atmospheric circulation changes. Our results highlight the fact that atmospheric CO₂ measurements could open up the possibility of detecting regional changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle even where anthropogenic emissions are not negligible.     

城市能源利用碳足迹分析——以厦门市为例

城市能源利用碳足迹分析综合考虑直接与间接碳排放,对于深度分析碳排放的本质过程、制定科学全面的碳减排计划具有重要意义。以厦门市为研究案例,应用碳足迹的混合分析方法,对厦门市2009年能源利用碳足迹进行了分析,除了包括传统研究中的城市能源终端利用产生的直接碳排放,还计算了跨界交通和城市主要消耗物质的内含能引起的间接碳排放。研究结果表明:(1)城市边界内的工业、交通、商业等部门的能源消耗产生的直接碳排放(即层次1和层次2)只占到总碳足迹的64%,而一直被忽略的跨界交通和城市主要消耗物质的内含能引起的间接碳排放(层次3)占到36%;(2)在直接碳排放中,工业部门的碳排放贡献率最大,占到直接碳排放的55%,其中化工行业带来的碳排放占到工业部门的25%;(3)在间接碳排放中,跨界交通引起的碳排放占间接碳排放的27%,其中长途道路运输贡献率最大,占跨界交通碳排放的38%;主要材料内含能碳排放占间接碳排的73%,其中燃料的内含能碳排放占总内含能的份额最大,达51%。;(4)从人均碳足迹角度比较,厦门市人均碳足迹和丹佛市的人均直接碳排(层次1+层次2)分别为5.74 t CO2e/人、18.9 t CO2e/人,包含3个层次的人均碳足迹分别为9.01 tCO2e/人、25.3 t CO2e/人,其中跨界交通引起的碳排放均占总碳足迹的10%左右,主要材料的内含能引起的碳排放分别占到总碳足迹的26%、15%;通过国内外典型城市不同层次碳足迹比较可见厦门还是相对低碳的,但有个显著的特点是主要消耗物质的内含碳排放比例较高,这在一定程度上说明了发展中国家城市消耗更多的基础材料,进一步证明了传统核算中忽略的第3层次碳排放核算与管理的重要性。     

共享社会经济路径下中国2020—2100年碳排放预测研究

碳排放和减碳经济代价研究日益受到学术界和决策者的关注,中国政府做出的关于争取在2060年前实现碳中和的表态引起了国际社会的热议。在此背景下,开展中国未来长时间序列碳排放的情景预测具有切实意义。基于可拓展的随机性环境影响评估模型（STIRPAT）评估了人口、经济和受教育程度对碳排放的影响,对比历史数据并验证了碳排放预测模型的准确性,结合共享社会经济路径（SSPs）情景的设定和模型参数,预测了5种情景下中国2020年至2100年的碳排放轨迹及经济代价。结果表明：（1）考虑碳排放达峰目标的实现,SSP3情景是中国未来发展的最佳情景,在此情景下,中国有望提前三年实现碳排放达峰目标;（2） SSP3情景可使中国年度总碳排放量和人均碳排放量处于相对其他四种情景的最低值,但需要付出累积GDP下降5.49%至8.80%的代价;（3）为完成在2060年前实现碳中和的承诺,中国政府在未来的40年需面对409.36-467.42 Gt的碳中和量;（4）2020年中国的碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降40.52%至41.39%,2030年碳排放强度将会较2005年水平下降59.64%至60.75%。5种情境中,SSP5情景是降低碳排放强度的最佳情景,可最大程度地超额实现碳排放强度目标。未来,受经济发展、人口增长等重要因素影响,中国政府减碳压力将进一步加大。后疫情时代,考虑到能源供应的减少和高科技产业的发展,碳排放社会成本的上升将为中国创造一个使能源系统脱碳的机遇。中国应在"十四五"期间继续提升能源利用效率、升级产业结构、提倡低碳消费、实施隐含碳战略,以尽快实现碳减排目标。     

Challenges and opportunities for hydrogen production from microalgae

The global population is predicted to increase from ~7.3 billion to over 9 billion people by 2050. Together with rising economic growth, this is forecast to result in a 50% increase in fuel demand, which will have to be met while reducing carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions by 50–80% to maintain social, political, energy and climate security. This tension between rising fuel demand and the requirement for rapid global decarbonization highlights the need to fast‐track the coordinated development and deployment of efficient cost‐effective renewable technologies for the production of CO₂ neutral energy. Currently, only 20% of global energy is provided as electricity, while 80% is provided as fuel. Hydrogen (H₂) is the most advanced CO₂‐free fuel and provides a ‘common’ energy currency as it can be produced via a range of renewable technologies, including photovoltaic (PV), wind, wave and biological systems such as microalgae, to power the next generation of H₂ fuel cells. Microalgae production systems for carbon‐based fuel (oil and ethanol) are now at the demonstration scale. This review focuses on evaluating the potential of microalgal technologies for the commercial production of solar‐driven H₂ from water. It summarizes key global technology drivers, the potential and theoretical limits of microalgal H₂ production systems, emerging strategies to engineer next‐generation systems and how these fit into an evolving H₂ economy.     

High emissions of greenhouse gases from grasslands on peat and other organic soils

Drainage has turned peatlands from a carbon sink into one of the world's largest greenhouse gas (GHG) sources from cultivated soils. We analyzed a unique data set (12 peatlands, 48 sites and 122 annual budgets) of mainly unpublished GHG emissions from grasslands on bog and fen peat as well as other soils rich in soil organic carbon (SOC) in Germany. Emissions and environmental variables were measured with identical methods. Site‐averaged GHG budgets were surprisingly variable (29.2 ± 17.4 t CO₂‐eq. ha^?1 yr^?1) and partially higher than all published data and the IPCC default emission factors for GHG inventories. Generally, CO₂ (27.7 ± 17.3 t CO₂ ha^?1 yr^?1) dominated the GHG budget. Nitrous oxide (2.3 ± 2.4 kg N₂O‐N ha^?1 yr^?1) and methane emissions (30.8 ± 69.8 kg CH₄‐C ha^?1 yr^?1) were lower than expected except for CH₄ emissions from nutrient‐poor acidic sites. At single peatlands, CO₂ emissions clearly increased with deeper mean water table depth (WTD), but there was no general dependency of CO₂ on WTD for the complete data set. Thus, regionalization of CO₂ emissions by WTD only will remain uncertain. WTD dynamics explained some of the differences between peatlands as sites which became very dry during summer showed lower emissions. We introduced the aerated nitrogen stock (N_air) as a variable combining soil nitrogen stocks with WTD. CO₂ increased with N_air across peatlands. Soils with comparatively low SOC concentrations showed as high CO₂ emissions as true peat soils because N_air was similar. N₂O emissions were controlled by the WTD dynamics and the nitrogen content of the topsoil. CH₄ emissions can be well described by WTD and ponding duration during summer. Our results can help both to improve GHG emission reporting and to prioritize and plan emission reduction measures for peat and similar soils at different scales.     

Photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO2 in Phaseolus vulgaris L. is altered by growth response to nitrogen supply

Abstract Long‐term exposure of plants to elevated CO₂ often leads to downward photosynthetic acclimation. Nitrogen (N) deficiency could potentially exacerbate this response by reducing growth rate and the sink for photosynthates, but this has not always been observed. Experimentally, the interpretation of N effects on CO₂ responses can be confounded by increasing severity of tissue N deficiency over time when N supply is not adjusted as demand increases. In this study, N supply ranged from sub‐ to supra‐optimal (20–540 kgN ha^–l equivalent), and relatively stable levels of tissue N concentration were obtained in all treatments by varying twice‐weekly application rates in proportion to plant growth. The effects of N on photosynthesis and growth of beans (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) raised at ambient (35 Pa) and three elevated (70, 105, 140 Pa) CO₂ partial pressures (pCO₂) were evaluated. Averaging across N treatments, leaf total non‐structural carbohydrates (TNC) were 2.5‐ to 3‐fold higher and leaf N concentrations were 31–35% lower at elevated compared to ambient pCO₂. Light‐saturated net CO₂ assimilation rates measured at growth pCO₂ (A_satg) were significantly higher (26–40% depending on N supply) in plants grown at elevated compared to ambient pCO₂. When measured at a common pCO₂ of 35 Pa, the A_sat of plants grown at elevated CO₂ was 15–29% less than that of plants grown at 35 Pa, indicative of downward photosynthetic acclimation. The magnitude of downward photosynthetic acclimation to elevated CO₂ was greater in plants grown at high (180 and 540 kgN ha^–l) compared to low (20 and 60 kgN ha^–l) N supply, and this was associated with a higher A_sat at growth pCO₂, higher leaf area ratio (leaf area/total biomass), and higher TNC in leaves of high‐N plants. Our results indicate that the effect of N on acclimation to CO₂ will depend on the balance between supply and demand for N during the growing period, and the effect this has on biomass allocation and source‐sink C balance at the whole‐plant level.     

Competing uses of biomass for energy and chemicals: implications for long‐term global CO2 mitigation potential

Biomass is considered a low carbon source for various energy or chemical options. This paper assesses it's different possible uses, the competition between these uses, and the implications for long‐term global energy demand and energy system emissions. A scenario analysis is performed using the TIMER energy system model. Under baseline conditions, 170 EJ yr^?1 of secondary bioenergy is consumed in 2100 (approximately 18% of total secondary energy demand), used primarily in the transport, buildings and nonenergy (chemical production) sectors. This leads to a reduction of 9% of CO₂ emissions compared to a counterfactual scenario where no bioenergy is used. Bioenergy can contribute up to 40% reduction in emissions at carbon taxes greater than 500/tC. As higher CO₂ taxes are applied, bioenergy is increasingly diverted towards electricity generation. Results are more sensitive to assumptions about resource availability than technological parameters. To estimate the effectiveness of bioenergy in specific sectors, experiments are performed in which bioenergy is only allowed in one sector at a time. The results show that cross‐sectoral leakage and emissions from biomass conversion limit the total emission reduction possible in each sector. In terms of reducing emissions per unit of bioenergy use, we show that the use of bioelectricity is the most effective, especially when used with carbon capture and storage. However, this technology only penetrates at a high carbon price (>100/tC) and competition with transport fuels may limit its adoption.     

Simulating greenhouse gas mitigation potentials for Chinese Croplands using the DAYCENT ecosystem model

Understanding the potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in agricultural lands is a critical challenge for climate change policy. This study uses the DAYCENT ecosystem model to predict GHG mitigation potentials associated with soil management in Chinese cropland systems. Application of ecosystem models, such as DAYCENT, requires the evaluation of model performance with data sets from experiments relevant to the climate and management of the study region. DAYCENT was evaluated with data from 350 cropland experiments in China, including measurements of nitrous oxide emissions (N₂O), methane emissions (CH₄), and soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes. In general, the model was reasonably accurate with R² values for model predictions vs. measurements ranging from 0.71 to 0.85. Modeling efficiency varied from 0.65 for SOC stock changes to 0.83 for crop yields. Mitigation potentials were estimated on a yield basis (Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield). The results demonstrate that the largest decrease in GHG emissions in rainfed systems are associated with combined effect of reducing mineral N fertilization, organic matter amendments and reduced‐till coupled with straw return, estimated at 0.31 to 0.83 Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield. A mitigation potential of 0.08 to 0.36 Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield is possible by reducing N chemical fertilizer rates, along with intermittent flooding in paddy rice cropping systems.     

Environmental implications of the use of agro‐industrial residues for biorefineries: application of a deterministic model for indirect land‐use changes

Biorefining agro‐industrial biomass residues for bioenergy production represents an opportunity for both sustainable energy supply and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions mitigation. Yet, is bioenergy the most sustainable use for these residues? To assess the importance of the alternative use of these residues, a consequential life cycle assessment (LCA) of 32 energy‐focused biorefinery scenarios was performed based on eight selected agro‐industrial residues and four conversion pathways (two involving bioethanol and two biogas). To specifically address indirect land‐use changes (iLUC) induced by the competing feed/food sector, a deterministic iLUC model, addressing global impacts, was developed. A dedicated biochemical model was developed to establish detailed mass, energy, and substance balances for each biomass conversion pathway, as input to the LCA. The results demonstrated that, even for residual biomass, environmental savings from fossil fuel displacement can be completely outbalanced by iLUC, depending on the feed value of the biomass residue. This was the case of industrial residues (e.g. whey and beet molasses) in most of the scenarios assessed. Overall, the GHGs from iLUC impacts were quantified to 4.1 t CO₂‐eq.ha^?1_demanded yr^?1 corresponding to 1.2–1.4 t CO₂‐eq. t^?1 dry biomass diverted from feed to energy market. Only, bioenergy from straw and wild grass was shown to perform better than the alternative use, as no competition with the feed sector was involved. Biogas for heat and power production was the best performing pathway, in a short‐term context. Focusing on transport fuels, bioethanol was generally preferable to biomethane considering conventional biogas upgrading technologies. Based on the results, agro‐industrial residues cannot be considered burden‐free simply because they are a residual biomass and careful accounting of alternative utilization is a prerequisite to assess the sustainability of a given use. In this endeavor, the iLUC factors and biochemical model proposed herein can be used as templates and directly applied to any bioenergy consequential study involving demand for arable land.     

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970–2050

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land‐use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya–Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop‐ and livestock‐production, respectively. Except for the energy‐use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business‐as‐usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20–55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2–14.5 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food‐system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.