Managing biodiversity under climate change: challenges,frameworks, and tools for adaptation

The myriad challenges facing biodiversity under climate change are reflected in the challenges facing managers planning for these impacts. An ever-expanding number of recommendations and tools for climate change adaptation exist to aid managers in these efforts, yet navigating these various resources can lead to information overload and paralysis in decision-making. Here we provide a synthesis of the key considerations, approaches, and available tools for integrating climate change adaptation into management plans. We discuss principal elements in climate change adaptation—incorporating uncertainty through scenario planning and adaptive management—and review three leading frameworks for incorporating climate change adaptation into place-based biodiversity conservation planning. Finally, we identify the following key questions needed for long-term conservation planning and review the associated tools and techniques needed to address them: (1) How is the climate projected to change in my study area?; (2) How are non-climatic stressors projected to change?; (3) How vulnerable are species to climate change impacts?; (4) How are species ranges likely to respond?; and (5) How are management strategies expected to affect outcomes? In doing so, we aim to aid natural resource managers in navigating the burgeoning field of climate change adaptation planning and provide managers a roadmap for managing biodiversity under climate change.     

The Politics of Adaptation: Subsistence Livelihoods and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Koyukon Athabascan Village of Ruby,Alaska

The concepts of vulnerability and adaptation have contributed to understanding human responses to climate change. However, analysis of the implications of the broader political context on adaptation has largely been absent. Through a case study of the subsistence livelihoods of Koyukon Athabascan people of Ruby Village, this paper examines the implications of adaptation to the social changes precipitated by colonization for the articulation of current responses to climate change. Semi-structured interviews, seasonal rounds, and land-use mapping conducted with 20 community experts indicate that subsistence livelihoods are of continued importance to the people of Ruby in spite of the dramatic social change. While adaptive responses demonstrate resilience, adaptation to one form of change can increase vulnerability to other kinds of perturbations. Research findings illustrate that a historical approach to adaptation can clarify the influence of the present political context on indigenous peoples’ responses to impacts of climate changes.     

Forest biodiversity in a changing climate: which logic for conservation strategies?

Climate change has direct and indirect impacts on forest ecosystems worldwide. In this context, changing site conditions and altered disturbance regimes as well as forest management responses are challenging the conservation of biodiversity in forests. Climate-induced dynamics and uncertainties related to future forest ecosystem development are calling into question current conservation strategies and concepts. Given the longevity of trees, slow development rates of forest ecosystems and slow migration rates of many forest species, the planning of adaptation measures in response to climate change are especially difficult though highly important for forest biodiversity conservation. This paper introduces a special issue with eight contributions which deal with a variety of aspects of forest biodiversity conservation in the face of climate change. More specifically, the papers address direct impacts of climate change on forest biodiversity, adaptation measures for forest and conservation management, as well as resulting challenges for conservation strategies and concepts. In conclusion, adaptation measures that enhance diversity and provide different options for future action, thereby maintaining ecosystems’ resilience, as well as conservation management operating on a landscape level, are promoted as being beneficial for coping with uncertainties related to climate change. Adaptive management, which constantly reviews conservation goals and measures, and which takes into account both science-based and local ecological knowledge on climate change can be a valuable tool to inform decisions for forest biodiversity conservation.     

自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化的管理有效性评估: 以广西12个典型自然保护区为例

建立自然保护区是生物多样性保护的根本措施, 而且自然保护区对减缓和适应气候变化具有重要的作用。生物多样性保护的压力在气候变化的胁迫下不断加剧, 因此, 有效的自然保护区管理必须考虑气候变化的影响。发展应对气候变化威胁的适应性管理技术以提高自然保护区管理有效性是自然保护区管理的迫切需求。但目前全球范围内还没有针对减缓和适应气候变化的自然保护区管理有效性评估工具。近半个世纪来广西气温持续升高且极端气候事件频次增加, 对广西各类生物生境产生了重要的影响。本文基于世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)的自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化管理框架和管理有效性评估框架, 在管理有效性跟踪工具(mangement effectiveness tracking tool, METT)基础上提出了自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化管理有效性评估工具(management effectiveness assessment tool of mitigation and adaptation on climate change, MEATMACC), 并使用该工具和METT对广西12个典型自然保护区进行了调查分析。结果表明: 国家级自然保护区的METT得分、MEATMACC得分分别比非国家级自然保护区高28.98%和43.91%; 国家级与非国家级自然保护区的METT得分无显著差异, 但MEATMACC得分差异极显著; 两个管理有效性评估工具得分率呈线性相关但差异不显著; 两个评估工具中背景、规划与影响3个要素得分率存在极显著差异。研究结果表明, 对于自然保护区减缓和适应气候变化的政策和技术支持仍需加强。     

“Community Work” in a Climate of Adaptation: Responding to Change in Rural Alaska

We draw on our research experiences with municipal workers in Alaska, where the impacts of climate change are already extensive, to examine adaptation and related concepts, such as resilience and vulnerability, which have become widely used in science and policy formulation for addressing climate change despite also being subject to multiple critiques. We use local people’s experiences with environmental challenges to illustrate limitations of the climate change adaptation paradigm, and offer the additional concept of “community work” — analogous to niche construction — as a counterpart to the adaptive process at the community level. Whereas climate change adaptation insinuates active and purposive change, the reality we have repeatedly encountered is that people in these communities focus not on changing but on building and maintaining capacity and achieving stability: keeping aging and overtaxed infrastructure running while also working toward improving quality of life and services in their communities. We discuss how these findings are congruent with recent calls to better situate climate change adaptation policy in the context of community development, and argue that scientists and policymakers need to understand this context of community work to avoid the pitfalls that potentially accompany the adaptation paradigm.     

Multi-agent modelling of climate outlooks and food security on a community garden scheme in Limpopo, South Africa

Seasonal climate outlooks provide one tool to help decision-makers allocate resources in anticipation of poor, fair or good seasons. The aim of the 'Climate Outlooks and Agent-Based Simulation of Adaptation in South Africa' project has been to investigate whether individuals, who adapt gradually to annual climate variability, are better equipped to respond to longer-term climate variability and change in a sustainable manner. Seasonal climate outlooks provide information on expected annual rainfall and thus can be used to adjust seasonal agricultural strategies to respond to expected climate conditions. A case study of smallholder farmers in a village in Vhembe district, Limpopo Province, South Africa has been used to examine how such climate outlooks might influence agricultural strategies and how this climate information can be improved to be more useful to farmers. Empirical field data has been collected using surveys, participatory approaches and computer-based knowledge elicitation tools to investigate the drivers of decision-making with a focus on the role of climate, market and livelihood needs. This data is used in an agent-based social simulation which incorporates household agents with varying adaptation options which result in differing impacts on crop yields and thus food security, as a result of using or ignoring the seasonal outlook. Key variables are the skill of the forecast, the social communication of the forecast and the range of available household and community-based risk coping strategies. This research provides a novel approach for exploring adaptation within the context of climate change.     

Diversity and Connectance in an Industrial Context

The ecological metaphor of industrial ecology is a proven conceptual tool, having spawned an entire field of interdisciplinary research that explores the intimate linkages between industry and its underlying natural systems. Besides its name and a number of borrowed concepts, however, industrial ecology has no formal relationship with the ecological sciences. This study explores the potential for further interdisciplinary collaboration by testing whether some of the same quantitative analysis techniques used in community ecology research can have meaning in an industrial context. Specifically, we applied the ecological concepts of connectance and diversity to an analysis of Burnside Industrial Park in Halifax, Nova Scotia. Our results demonstrate that these ecological tools show promise for use in industrial ecology. We discuss the meaning of connectance and diversity concepts in an industrial context and suggest next steps for future studies. We hope that this research will help to lay the groundwork of an ecologically inspired tool kit for analyzing industrial ecosystems.     

The role of industrial ecology in food and agriculture's adaptation to climate change

The food and agriculture sectors contribute significantly to climate change, but are also particularly vulnerable to its effects. Industrial ecology has robustly addressed these sectors’ contributions to climate change, but not their vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability must be addressed through development of climate change adaptation and resiliency strategies. However, there is a fundamental tension between the primary objectives of industrial ecology (efficiency, cyclic flows, and pollution prevention) and what is needed for climate change adaptation and resiliency. We develop here two potential ways through which the field can overcome (or work within) this tension and combine the tools and methods of industrial ecology with the science and process of climate change adaptation. The first layers industrial ecology tools on top of climate change adaptation strategies, allowing one to, for example, compare the environmental impacts of different adaptation strategies. The other embeds climate change adaptation and resiliency within industrial ecology tools, for example, by redefining the functional unit in life cycle assessment (LCA) to include functions of resiliency. In both, industrial ecology plays a somewhat narrow role, informing climate change adaptation and resilience decision‐making by providing quantitative indicators of environmental performance. This role for industrial ecology is important given the significant contributions and potential for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from food and agriculture. However, it suggests that industrial ecology's role in climate adaptation will be as an evaluator of adaptation strategies, rather than an originator.     

Future oriented conservation: knowledge governance,uncertainty and learning

Despite significant progress in understanding climate risks, adaptation efforts in biodiversity conservation remain limited. Adaptation requires addressing immediate conservation threats while also attending to long term, highly uncertain and potentially transformative future changes. To date, conservation research has focused more on projecting climate impacts and identifying possible strategies, rather than understanding how governance enables or constrains adaptation actions. We outline an approach to future-oriented conservation that combines the capacities to anticipate future ecological change; to understand the implications of that change for social, political and ecological values; and the ability to engage with the governance (and politics) of adaptation. Our approach builds on the adaptive management and governance literature, however we explicitly address the (often contested) rules, knowledge and values that enable or constrain adaptation. We call for a broader focus that extends beyond technical approaches to acknowledge the socio-political challenges inherent to adaptation. More importantly, we suggest that conservation policy makers and practitioners can use this approach to facilitate learning and adaptation in the context of complexity, transformational change and uncertainty.     

How is adaptation to climate change reflected in current practice of forest management and conservation? A case study from Germany

Climate change is expected to challenge forest management and nature conservation in forests. Besides forest species, strategies and references for management and conservation will be affected. In this paper, we qualitatively analysed whether forest conservation and management practice have already adapted to the impacts of climate change and to what extent those practices reflect the adaptation strategies dealt with in international peer-reviewed literature. To this end, we conducted thirteen in-depth interviews with forest practitioners (forest officers/forest district officers) in four regions in Germany. The interview regions were selected to represent the variation in tree species composition, forest ownership regimes and vulnerability to climate change. Although interviewees claimed to take climate change and adaptation strategies into account, in practice such strategies have as yet only occasionally been implemented. Our results suggest that strategies for adapting forest management to climate change are just in the early stages of development or supplement existing strategies relating to general risk reduction or nature-orientated forest management. The extent to which climate change adaptation strategies have influenced overall management varies. This variation and the lack of specific strategies also reflect the existing uncertainties about future changes in climate and about the capacity of forest ecosystems to adapt. We conclude that, in the face of climate change, forest management will have a major influence on future biodiversity composition of forest ecosystems. Hence, a framework for conservation in forests providing recommendations which also take into account the consequences of climate change needs to be developed.     

Preparing Wildlife for Climate Change: How Far Have We Come?

Global biodiversity is in unprecedented decline and on-the-ground solutions are imperative for conservation. Although there is a large volume of evidence related to climate change effects on wildlife, research on climate adaptation strategies is lagging. To assess the current state of knowledge in climate adaptation, we conducted a comprehensive literature review and evaluated 1,346 peer-reviewed publications for management recommendations designed to address the consequences of climate change on wildlife populations. From 509 publications, we identified 2,306 recommendations and employed both qualitative and quantitative methods for data analysis. Although we found an increase in the volume and diversity of recommendations since 2007, a focus on protected areas (26%, 596 of 2,306 recommendations) and the non-reserve matrix (12%, 276 of 2,306 recommendations) remained prominent in the climate adaptation literature. Common concepts include protected areas, invasive species, ecosystem services, adaptive management, stepping stones, assisted migration, and conservation easements. In contrast, only 1% of recommendations focused on reproduction (n = 26), survival (n = 14), disease (n = 26), or human-wildlife conflict (n = 24). Few recommendations reflected the potential for local-scale management interventions. We demonstrate limited advancement in preparing natural resource managers in climate adaptation at local, management-relevant scales. Additional research is needed to identify and evaluate climate adaptation strategies aimed at reducing the vulnerability of wildlife to contemporary climate change. © 2020 The Wildlife Society.     

Modelling conservation management options for a southern range‐margin population of Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria vulnerable to climate change

There is considerable interest in understanding how management may help species and populations cope with climate change (climate change adaptation). I used a population model describing the demography of a southern range‐margin European Golden Plover Pluvialis apricaria population vulnerable to climate change to assess the potential benefits associated with site‐based adaptation management. Two forms of management were simulated: (1) counteracting management to reduce the severity of the negative climate change impacts, simulated by increasing tipulid (cranefly) abundance, and (2) compensatory management to increase populations through an alternative mechanism, simulated by manipulating nest and chick predation rates. A 1 °C rise was estimated to require a doubling of cranefly abundance, or a 35% increase in nest and chick survival rates, to maintain a stable population. For a 2 °C rise, a four‐fold increase in craneflies or an 80% increase in survival rates would be required for population stability. A model based on likely realistic estimates of the magnitude of benefit associated with both adaptation management options showed that combined, they may significantly reduce the severity of population decline and risk of extinction associated with a relatively large increase in temperature of 5.8 °C above 1960–90 levels. Site‐based adaptation management may therefore increase the resistance of Golden Plovers to some degree of future climate change. This model framework for informing climate change adaptation decisions should be developed for other species and habitats.     

A global synthesis of climate vulnerability assessments on marine fisheries: Methods,scales, and knowledge co-production

Undertaking climate vulnerability assessments (CVAs) on marine fisheries is instrumental to the identification of regions, species, and stakeholders at risk of impacts from climate change, and the development of effective and targeted responses for fisheries adaptation. In this global literature review, we addressed three important questions to characterize fisheries CVAs: (i) what are the available approaches to develop CVAs in various social–ecological contexts, (ii) are different geographic scales and regions adequately represented, and (iii) how do diverse knowledge systems contribute to current understanding of vulnerability? As part of these general research efforts, we identified and characterized an inventory of frameworks and indicators that encompass a wide range of foci on ecological and socioeconomic dimensions of climate vulnerability on fisheries. Our analysis highlighted a large gap between countries with top research inputs and the most urgent adaptation needs. More research and resources are needed in low-income tropical countries to ensure existing inequities are not exacerbated. We also identified an uneven research focus across spatial scales and cautioned a possible scale mismatch between assessment and management needs. Drawing on this information, we catalog (1) a suite of research directions that could improve the utility and applicability of CVAs, particularly the examination of barriers and enabling conditions that influence the uptake of CVA results into management responses at multiple levels, (2) the lessons that have been learned from applications in data-limited regions, particularly the use of proxy indicators and knowledge co-production to overcome the problem of data deficiency, and (3) opportunities for wider applications, for example diversifying the use of vulnerability indicators in broader monitoring and management schemes. This information is used to provide a set of recommendations that could advance meaningful CVA practices for fisheries management and promote effective translation of climate vulnerability into adaptation actions.     

Consideration of Background Radiation in Ecological Risk Assessments

Background or ambient concentrations are often considered in the evaluation of potential risks to ecological receptors from exposure to hazardous chemicals in the environment. Such an evaluation may be a component of the screening or final risk management process and sets the baseline from which risks contributed by site-related activities can be addressed. Although the process for the evaluation of potential radiological risks to ecological receptors is less formalized than the chemical hazard assessment process, background remains an issue that should be addressed when considering potential site-related impacts. This paper briefly presents the ecological risk assessment approaches used to address background radionuclide concentrations at three United States Department of Defense Facilities. The concepts of total radiation dose, and tolerance and adaptation of populations to radiation are also discussed within the context of background radiation.     

Transformational restoration: novel ecosystems in Denmark

Restoring the estimated 1 billion hectares of degraded forests must consider future climate accompanied by novel ecosystems. Transformational restoration can play a key role in adaptation to climate change but it is conceptually the most divergent from contemporary approaches favoring native species and natural disturbance regimes. Here, we review concepts of novelty in ecosystems with examples of emergent/neo-native and designed novel ecosystems, with application to transformational restoration. Danish forests have a high degree of novelty and provide a realistic context for discussing assisted migration, one method of transformational adaptation. Deforestation and impacts of past land use created a highly degraded landscape dominated by heathland in western Denmark. Restoration with non-native species began 150 years ago because the native broadleaves could not establish on the heathlands. Danish forestry continues to rely extensively on non-native species. Preparing for transformational adaptation requires risky research today to prepare for events in the future and refugia from the last glaciation may provide genetic material better adapted to future climate. A new project will test whether species and provenances from the Caspian forests in Iran possess greater genetic diversity and superior resistance (physiological adaptability) and resilience (evolutionary adaptability) and possibly a gene pool for future adaptation.     

Developing Univariate Distributions from Data for Risk Analysis

The importance of fitting distributions to data for risk analysis continues to grow as regulatory agencies, like the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), continue to shift from deterministic to probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The use of Monte Carlo simulation as a tool for propagating variability and uncertainty in risk requires specification of the risk model's inputs in the form of distributions or tables of data. Several software tools exist to support risk assessors in their efforts to develop distributions. However, users must keep in mind that these tools do not replace clear thought about judgments that must be made in characterizing the information from data. This overview introduces risk assessors to the statistical concepts and physical reasons that support important judgments about appropriate types of parametric distributions and goodness-of-fit. In the context of using data to improve risk assessment and ultimately risk management, this paper discusses issues related to the nature of the data (representativeness, quantity, and quality, correlation with space and time, and distinguishing between variability and uncertainty for a set of data), and matching data and distributions appropriately. All data analysis (whether “Frequentist” or “Bayesian” or oblivious to the distinction) requires the use of subjective judgment. The paper offers an iterative process for developing distributions using data to characterize variability and uncertainty for inputs to risk models that provides incentives for collecting better information when the value of information exceeds its cost. Risk analysts need to focus attention on characterizing the information appropriately for purposes of the risk assessment (and risk management questions at hand), not on characterization for its own sake.     

Agriculture under Climate Change in China: Mitigate the Risks by Grasping the Emerging Opportunities

ABSTRACT

There have been increasing concerns on risks and uncertainty posed by climate change to China's future crop production. The existing assessments using popular process-based and site-specific crop growing models highlight the significant extent of climate-induced yield reduction, and thus suggest a scary downward risk for China's future food production. Surprisingly, much less attention has been paid to exploring the potential gains that may also be brought by climate change. To address this imbalance, we develop an integrated agro-climatic and ecological assessment tool that is capable of detecting the shifts of multicropping opportunities under different climate change scenarios. The application of this tool to the context of China reveals significant extension of multicropping opportunities brought in by climate change. We argue for an active adaptation to such emerging opportunities through both market and policy incentives, because the aggregate gain of such adaptation is sufficient to outweigh the loss as revealed by the existing assessments.     

Defining Spaces of Resilience within the Neoliberal Paradigm: Could French Land Use Classifications Guide Support for Risk Management Within an Australian Regional Context?

An effective response to future risk within socio-ecosystems will require the retention of local diversity, not just in more vulnerable communities on the margins but also in regions vital to industrialised countries. A case study is presented that examines agroecosystem vulnerability to climate change within an Australian multifunctional rural landscape adjacent to the city of Adelaide. The dominant neoliberal governance approach is struggling to account for the levels of risk apparent in the region, even though there is considerable evidence that changes in policy and practice are required. Land use planning mechanisms can explicitly and implicitly support adaptation to risk within vital agroecosystems by defining spaces of complexity and experimentation. A review of French land use policy suggests that appropriate classifications can facilitate support for local diversity and broaden the capacity of farming systems to adapt to risk. Such classifications of spaces valuable for socio-ecological resilience and innovation could become vital tools to integrate into neoliberal governance systems to support anticipatory adaptation to future socio-ecological risk.     

Global and Local Concerns: What Attitudes and Beliefs Motivate Farmers to Mitigate and Adapt to Climate Change?

In response to agriculture''s vulnerability and contribution to climate change, many governments are developing initiatives that promote the adoption of mitigation and adaptation practices among farmers. Since most climate policies affecting agriculture rely on voluntary efforts by individual farmers, success requires a sound understanding of the factors that motivate farmers to change practices. Recent evidence suggests that past experience with the effects of climate change and the psychological distance associated with people''s concern for global and local impacts can influence environmental behavior. Here we surveyed farmers in a representative rural county in California''s Central Valley to examine how their intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation practices is influenced by previous climate experiences and their global and local concerns about climate change. Perceived changes in water availability had significant effects on farmers'' intention to adopt mitigation and adaptation strategies, which were mediated through global and local concerns respectively. This suggests that mitigation is largely motivated by psychologically distant concerns and beliefs about climate change, while adaptation is driven by psychologically proximate concerns for local impacts. This match between attitudes and behaviors according to the psychological distance at which they are cognitively construed indicates that policy and outreach initiatives may benefit by framing climate impacts and behavioral goals concordantly; either in a global context for mitigation or a local context for adaptation.     

Which practices co‐deliver food security,climate change mitigation and adaptation,and combat land degradation and desertification?

There is a clear need for transformative change in the land management and food production sectors to address the global land challenges of climate change mitigation, climate change adaptation, combatting land degradation and desertification, and delivering food security (referred to hereafter as “land challenges”). We assess the potential for 40 practices to address these land challenges and find that: Nine options deliver medium to large benefits for all four land challenges. A further two options have no global estimates for adaptation, but have medium to large benefits for all other land challenges. Five options have large mitigation potential (>3 Gt CO₂eq/year) without adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Five options have moderate mitigation potential, with no adverse impacts on the other land challenges. Sixteen practices have large adaptation potential (>25 million people benefit), without adverse side effects on other land challenges. Most practices can be applied without competing for available land. However, seven options could result in competition for land. A large number of practices do not require dedicated land, including several land management options, all value chain options, and all risk management options. Four options could greatly increase competition for land if applied at a large scale, though the impact is scale and context specific, highlighting the need for safeguards to ensure that expansion of land for mitigation does not impact natural systems and food security. A number of practices, such as increased food productivity, dietary change and reduced food loss and waste, can reduce demand for land conversion, thereby potentially freeing‐up land and creating opportunities for enhanced implementation of other practices, making them important components of portfolios of practices to address the combined land challenges.