Ecological factors driving the long-term evolution of influenza's host range

The evolution of a pathogen''s host range is shaped by the ecology of its hosts and by the physiological traits that determine host specificity. For many pathogen traits, there is a trade-off: a phenotype suitable for infecting one set of hosts poorly infects another. Introducing and analysing a simple evo-epidemiological model, here we study how such a trade-off is expected to affect evolution of the host ranges of influenza viruses. We examine a quantitative trait underlying host specificity, given by an influenza virus''s degree of adaptation to certain conformations of sialic acid receptors, and investigate how this receptor preference evolves in a minimal network of host species, including humans, that differ in life history and receptor physiology. Using adaptive dynamics theory, we establish thresholds in interspecific transmission rates and host population sizes that govern the emergence and persistence of human-adapted viruses. These ecological thresholds turn out to be largely independent of the strength of the evolutionary trade-off, underscoring the importance of ecological conditions in determining a disease''s host range.     

Viral Host Jumps: Moving toward a Predictive Framework

In order to predict pathogen emergence, we must distinguish between emergence phenomena that occur via different processes. Focusing on the appearance of viral pathogens in new host species, I outline a framework that uses specific molecular characteristics to rank virus families by their expected a priori ability to complete each of three steps in the emergence process (encounter, infection, and propagation). I then discuss the degree to which the patterns expected, based solely on molecular-level structural characteristics, agree with observations regarding the ability of animal viruses to infect humans. This approach yields predictions consistent with empirical observations regarding the ability of specific viral families to infect novel host species but highlights the need for consideration of other factors, such as the ecology of host interactions and the determinants of cellular susceptibility and permissivity to specific virus groups, when trying to predict the frequency with which a virus will encounter a novel host species or the probability of propagation within a novel host species once infection has occurred.     

The dynamics of preferential host switching: Host phylogeny as a key predictor of parasite distribution*

Parasites often jump to and become established in a new host species. There is much evidence that the probability of such host shifts decreases with increasing phylogenetic distance between donor and recipient hosts, but the consequences of such preferential host switching remain little explored. We develop a computational model to investigate the dynamics of parasite host shifts in the presence of this phylogenetic distance effect. In this model, a clade of parasites evolves on an evolving clade of host species where parasites can cospeciate with their hosts, switch to new hosts, speciate within hosts or become extinct. Our model predicts that host phylogenies are major determinants of parasite distributions across trees. In particular, we predict that trees consisting of few large clades of host species and those with fast species turnover should harbor more parasites than trees with many small clades and those that diversify more slowly. Within trees, large clades are predicted to exhibit a higher fraction of infected species than small clades. We discuss our results in the light of recent cophylogenetic studies in a wide range of host–parasite systems.     

The Role of Ecotones in Emerging Infectious Diseases

Recognition of the significance of the boundary between ecological systems, often referred to as the ecotone, has a long history in the ecological sciences and in zoonotic disease research. More recent research in landscape ecology has produced an expanded view of ecotones and elaboration of their characteristics and functions in ecosystems. Parallel research on emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) and the causes of increased rates of pathogen transmission, spread, and adaptation suggests a correspondence between ecotonal processes and the ecological and evolutionary processes responsible for zoonotic and vector-borne emerging infections. A review of the literature suggests that ecotones play a role in a number of the most important EIDs. Yet these are the only diseases for which specific landscape ecological information exists in the literature or disease reports. However, the similar disease ecologies of these with about half of the approximately 130 zoonotic EIDs suggests ecotones, particularly their anthropogenic origination or modification, may be generally associated with ecotones and the global trend of increasing EIDs.     

A framework to gauge the epidemic potential of plant pathogens in environmental reservoirs: the example of kiwifruit canker

New economically important diseases on crops and forest trees emerge recurrently. An understanding of where new pathogenic lines come from and how they evolve is fundamental for the deployment of accurate surveillance methods. We used kiwifruit bacterial canker as a model to assess the importance of potential reservoirs of new pathogenic lineages. The current kiwifruit canker epidemic is at least the fourth outbreak of the disease on kiwifruit caused by Pseudomonas syringae in the mere 50 years in which this crop has been cultivated worldwide, with each outbreak being caused by different genetic lines of the bacterium. Here, we ask whether strains in natural (non‐agricultural) environments could cause future epidemics of canker on kiwifruit. To answer this question, we evaluated the pathogenicity, endophytic colonization capacity and competitiveness on kiwifruit of P. syringae strains genetically similar to epidemic strains and originally isolated from aquatic and subalpine habitats. All environmental strains possessing an operon involved in the degradation of aromatic compounds via the catechol pathway grew endophytically and caused symptoms in kiwifruit vascular tissue. Environmental and epidemic strains showed a wide host range, revealing their potential as future pathogens of a variety of hosts. Environmental strains co‐existed endophytically with CFBP 7286, an epidemic strain, and shared about 20 virulence genes, but were missing six virulence genes found in all epidemic strains. By identifying the specific gene content in genetic backgrounds similar to known epidemic strains, we developed criteria to assess the epidemic potential and to survey for such strains as a means of forecasting and managing disease emergence.     

The return of the frogs: The importance of habitat refugia in maintaining diversity during a disease outbreak

Recent decades have seen the emergence and spread of numerous infectious diseases, often with severe negative consequences for wildlife populations. Nevertheless, many populations survive the initial outbreaks, and even undergo recoveries. Unfortunately, the long‐term effects of these outbreaks on host population genetics are poorly understood; to increase this understanding, we examined the population genetics of two species of rainforest frogs (Litoria nannotis and Litoria serrata) that have largely recovered from a chytridiomycosis outbreak at two national parks in the Wet Tropics of northern Australia. At the wetter, northern park there was little evidence of decreased genetic diversity in either species, and all of the sampled sites had high minor allele frequencies (mean MAF = 0.230–0.235), high heterozygosity (0.318–0.325), and few monomorphic markers (1.4%–4.0%); however, some recovered L. nannotis populations had low N_e values (59.3–683.8) compared to populations that did not decline during the outbreak (1,537.4–1,756.5). At the drier, southern park, both species exhibited lower diversity (mean MAF = 0.084–0.180; heterozygosity = 0.126–0.257; monomorphic markers = 3.7%–43.5%; N_e = 18.4–676.1). The diversity patterns in this park matched habitat patterns, with both species having higher diversity levels and fewer closely related individuals at sites with higher quality habitat. These patterns were more pronounced for L. nannotis, which has lower dispersal rates than L. serrata. These results suggest that refugia with high quality habitat are important for retaining genetic diversity during disease outbreaks, and that gene flow following disease outbreaks is important for re‐establishing diversity in populations where it was reduced.     

The evolutionary history of infectious disease in the ancient Americas and the pathogenic consequences of European contact

The increasing availability of next generation sequencing techniques in recent decades has led to new discoveries, and sometimes the redefinition of conventional hypotheses, regarding many complex human-pathogen evolutionary relationships. These new discoveries are particularly poignant in studies of the Americas, where research into Indigenous ancestry and migration has historically been ignored. As a result, conventional hypotheses regarding the origin of global pathogens like tuberculosis, syphilis, and malaria in the Americas and their spread within the continents have been mischaracterized. Fortunately, recent studies using molecular techniques have now superseded these missteps, which were often based in anecdotal accounts from colonial missionary reports rather than rigorous scientific study. It is now clear that there was not a unidirectional pipeline of pathogen introduction that began with European contact; instead, a rich and varied microbiological landscape already existed in the Americas. This synthesis of research regarding the origin and spread of pathogens in the Americas examines the scope of this changing perception within the fields of paleogenomics and paleomicrobiology.     

The role of viral and bacterial pathogens in gastrointestinal cancer

The association of Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) with gastric cancer is thus far the best understood model to comprehend the causal relationship between a microbial pathogen and cancer in the human gastrointestinal tract. Besides H. pylori, a variety of other pathogens are now being recognized as potential carcinogens in different settings of human cancer. In this context, viral causes of human cancers are central to the issue since these account for 10-20% of cancers worldwide. In the case of H. pylori and gastric cancer, as well as the human papillomavirus and anal cancer, the causal relationship between the infectious agent and the related cancer in the gastrointestinal tract has been clearly confirmed by epidemiological and experimental studies. Similarly, Epstein-Barr virus and the oncogenic JC virus are being suggested as possible causative agents for cancers in the upper and lower gastrointestinal tract. This review discusses various viral and microbial pathogens and their oncogenic properties in the evolution of gastrointestinal carcinogenesis and summarizes the available experimental data make a convincing agreement favoring the associations between infectious agents and specific human cancers.     

The host range of Plasmodiophora brassicae and its relationship to endogenous glucosinolate content

The host range of the soilborne obligate biotroph, Plasmodiophora brassicae was investigated. Evidence is presented that infection by P. brassicae might occur in non- Brassica species, leading to the potential formation of resting spores. Structures resembling P. brassicae were found in the root cortex of Tropaeolum majus , Carica papaya , Reseda alba and Beta vulgaris as demonstrated by scanning electron microscopy. Inoculation of Brassica rapa roots with spores extracted from either T. majus or B. vulgaris roots which had been previously inoculated with P. brassicae led to development of clubroot in the roots of B. rapa . It was also shown that the development of the symptom might be correlated with glucosinolate content, although other host factors are implicated in the B. vulgaris interaction with P. brassicae . In the glucosinolate-containing non-Brassicas, T. majus and C. papaya , the concentrations of benzylglucosinolate increased markedly in roots inoculated with P. brassicae , compared with the controls. There were also increases in concentrations of benzylglucosinolate in leaves of T. majus after P. brassicae infection. However, in R. alba roots, the total glucosinolate content decreased after inoculation with P. brassicae compared with the controls. High root concentrations of 2-OH-2-phenylethylglucosinolate (glucobarbarin) compared with low root indole glucosinolates in this species might limit P. brassicae infection and development. The importance of our investigations in relation to cultivation of non- Brassica species on fields infested with P. brassicae is discussed.     

The broad host range of Metharmostis multilineata precludes its use as a biological control agent of Rhodomyrtus tomentosa

Rhodomyrtus tomentosa is an invasive weed in Florida and Hawaii, USA. Host range testing indicates that the stem-mining lepidopteran Metharmostis multilineata, collected from Hong Kong, China aggressively feeds and completes development on R. tomentosa as well as New World species in three other genera. The unsuitability of M. multilineata as a biological control agent and details of the newly described species' biology are addressed.     

Post COVID-19: a solution scan of options for preventing future zoonotic epidemics

The crisis generated by the emergence and pandemic spread of COVID-19 has thrown into the global spotlight the dangers associated with novel diseases, as well as the key role of animals, especially wild animals, as potential sources of pathogens to humans. There is a widespread demand for a new relationship with wild and domestic animals, including suggested bans on hunting, wildlife trade, wet markets or consumption of wild animals. However, such policies risk ignoring essential elements of the problem as well as alienating and increasing hardship for local communities across the world, and might be unachievable at scale. There is thus a need for a more complex package of policy and practical responses. We undertook a solution scan to identify and collate 161 possible options for reducing the risks of further epidemic disease transmission from animals to humans, including potential further SARS-CoV-2 transmission (original or variants). We include all categories of animals in our responses (i.e. wildlife, captive, unmanaged/feral and domestic livestock and pets) and focus on pathogens (especially viruses) that, once transmitted from animals to humans, could acquire epidemic potential through high rates of human-to-human transmission. This excludes measures to prevent well-known zoonotic diseases, such as rabies, that cannot readily transmit between humans. We focused solutions on societal measures, excluding the development of vaccines and other preventive therapeutic medicine and veterinary medicine options that are discussed elsewhere. We derived our solutions through reading the scientific literature, NGO position papers, and industry guidelines, collating our own experiences, and consulting experts in different fields. Herein, we review the major zoonotic transmission pathways and present an extensive list of options. The potential solutions are organised according to the key stages of the trade chain and encompass solutions that can be applied at the local, regional and international scales. This is a set of options targeted at practitioners and policy makers to encourage careful examination of possible courses of action, validating their impact and documenting outcomes.     

The influence of bat ecology on viral diversity and reservoir status

Repeated emergence of zoonotic viruses from bat reservoirs into human populations demands predictive approaches to preemptively identify virus‐carrying bat species. Here, we use machine learning to examine drivers of viral diversity in bats, determine whether those drivers depend on viral genome type, and predict undetected viral carriers. Our results indicate that bat species with longer life spans, broad geographic distributions in the eastern hemisphere, and large group sizes carry more viruses overall. Life span was a stronger predictor of deoxyribonucleic acid viral diversity, while group size and family were more important for predicting ribonucleic acid viruses, potentially reflecting broad differences in infection duration. Importantly, our models predict 54 bat species as likely carriers of zoonotic viruses, despite not currently being considered reservoirs. Mapping these predictions as a proportion of local bat diversity, we identify global regions where efforts to reduce disease spillover into humans by identifying viral carriers may be most productive.     

Modulation of inflammasome pathways by bacterial and viral pathogens

Inflammasomes are emerging as key regulators of the host response against microbial pathogens. These cytosolic multiprotein complexes recruit and activate the cysteine protease caspase-1 when microbes invade sterile tissues or elicit cellular damage. Inflammasome-activated caspase-1 induces inflammation by cleaving the proinflammatory cytokines IL-1β and IL-18 into their biologically active forms and by releasing the alarmin HMGB1 into the extracellular milieu. Additionally, inflammasomes counter bacterial replication and clear infected immune cells through an inflammatory cell death program termed pyroptosis. As a countermeasure, bacterial and viral pathogens evolved virulence factors to antagonize inflammasome pathways. In this review, we discuss recent progress on how inflammasomes contribute to host defense against bacterial and viral pathogens, and we review how viruses and bacteria modulate inflammasome function to their benefit.     

Phylogenetic determinants of potential host shifts in fungal pathogens

Understanding what determines the host range of pathogens and the potential for host shifts is of critical importance to controlling their introductions into new environments. The phylogeny of the hosts has been shown to be important: pathogens are more likely to be infectious on hosts closely related to their host‐of‐origin because of the similar host environments that is shared by descent. The importance of pathogen phylogenies for predicting host range has never been investigated, although a pathogen should also be able to exploit a new host that its close relative can infect. We performed cross‐inoculations using a plant–fungal association and showed that both host and pathogen phylogenies were significant predictors of host range, with at least partly independent effects. Furthermore, we showed that some pathogens were better at infecting novel hosts. Our results should have implications in the context of biological invasions and emergences of new diseases due to globalization.     

悬铃木方翅网蝽寄主范围的测定

在室内选择上海地区的19科27种园林植物对悬铃木方翅网蝽Corythucha ciliata(Say)进行寄主专一性测定。非选择性试验结果表明:悬铃木方翅网蝽对一球悬铃木(Platanus occidentalis)、二球悬铃木(Platanus acerifolia)、三球悬铃木(Platanus orientalis)、红叶李(Prunus cerasifera)、构树(Broussonetia papyrifera)和红花槭(Acer rubrum)6种植物有取食现象,其中若虫在前5种植物上取食量较大,而对红花槭只表现为轻微取食;成虫在前4种植物上的取食量较大,而对构树和红花槭只有少量取食。在所有植物中,悬铃木方翅网蝽只能在一球悬铃木、二球悬铃木、三球悬铃木上完成完整的发育世代。选择性试验表明:成虫嗜食一球悬铃木、二球悬铃木、三球悬铃木,部分取食红叶李,而不取食红花槭和构树。成虫产卵显著偏爱于一球悬铃木、二球悬铃木、三球悬铃木,而不在其它植物上产卵。因此,悬铃木方翅网蝽的寄主范围较为单一,只有悬铃木属植物是其寄主。     

Patterns of infection,origins, and transmission of ranaviruses among the ectothermic vertebrates of Asia

Ranaviral infections, a malady of ectothermic vertebrates, are becoming frequent, severe, and widespread, causing mortality among both wild and cultured species, raising odds of species extinctions and economic losses. This increase in infection is possibly due to the broad host range of ranaviruses and the transmission of these pathogens through regional and international trade in Asia, where outbreaks have been increasingly reported over the past decade. Here, we focus attention on the origins, means of transmission, and patterns of spread of this infection within the region. Infections have been recorded in both cultured and wild populations in at least nine countries/administrative regions, together with mass die‐offs in some regions. Despite the imminent seriousness of the disease in Asia, surveillance efforts are still incipient. Some of the viral strains within Asia may transmit across host–taxon barriers, posing a significant risk to native species. Factors such as rising temperatures due to global climate change seem to exacerbate ranaviral activity, as most known outbreaks have been recorded during summer; however, data are still inadequate to verify this pattern for Asia. Import risk analysis, using protocols such as Pandora+, pre‐border pathogen screening, and effective biosecurity measures, can be used to mitigate introduction of ranaviruses to uninfected areas and curb transmission within Asia. Comprehensive surveillance using molecular diagnostic tools for ranavirus species and variants will help in understanding the prevalence and disease burden in the region. This is an important step toward conserving native biodiversity and safeguarding the aquaculture industry.     

Avoidable errors in the modelling of outbreaks of emerging pathogens, with special reference to Ebola

As an emergent infectious disease outbreak unfolds, public health response is reliant on information on key epidemiological quantities, such as transmission potential and serial interval. Increasingly, transmission models fit to incidence data are used to estimate these parameters and guide policy. Some widely used modelling practices lead to potentially large errors in parameter estimates and, consequently, errors in model-based forecasts. Even more worryingly, in such situations, confidence in parameter estimates and forecasts can itself be far overestimated, leading to the potential for large errors that mask their own presence. Fortunately, straightforward and computationally inexpensive alternatives exist that avoid these problems. Here, we first use a simulation study to demonstrate potential pitfalls of the standard practice of fitting deterministic models to cumulative incidence data. Next, we demonstrate an alternative based on stochastic models fit to raw data from an early phase of 2014 West Africa Ebola virus disease outbreak. We show not only that bias is thereby reduced, but that uncertainty in estimates and forecasts is better quantified and that, critically, lack of model fit is more readily diagnosed. We conclude with a short list of principles to guide the modelling response to future infectious disease outbreaks.