Native bees buffer the negative impact of climate warming on honey bee pollination of watermelon crops

If climate change affects pollinator‐dependent crop production, this will have important implications for global food security because insect pollinators contribute to production for 75% of the leading global food crops. We investigate whether climate warming could result in indirect impacts upon crop pollination services via an overlooked mechanism, namely temperature‐induced shifts in the diurnal activity patterns of pollinators. Using a large data set on bee pollination of watermelon crops, we predict how pollination services might change under various climate change scenarios. Our results show that under the most extreme IPCC scenario (A1F1), pollination services by managed honey bees are expected to decline by 14.5%, whereas pollination services provided by most native, wild taxa are predicted to increase, resulting in an estimated aggregate change in pollination services of +4.5% by 2099. We demonstrate the importance of native biodiversity in buffering the impacts of climate change, because crop pollination services would decline more steeply without the native, wild pollinators. More generally, our study provides an important example of how biodiversity can stabilize ecosystem services against environmental change.     

传粉动物多样性的保护与农业景观传粉服务的提升

传粉动物为许多植物尤其是作物提供了重要的传粉服务, 在保障全球粮食安全和人类福祉、缓冲气候变化对作物产量的影响等方面都发挥着重要的作用。然而来自全球土地利用变化、化学农药使用、外来物种入侵及气候变化等的威胁, 导致传粉动物的多样性下降并造成了依赖动物传粉的作物产量和品质的下降。针对这一情况, 作者提出了农业景观传粉动物多样性保护和利用的3种主要途径: (1)改善生产管理, 例如减少化学农药的使用、适当地采取有机种植; (2)促进景观多样性, 包括创建适宜野生传粉者的半自然生境、保护高价值的自然生境、作物多样化、合理配置资源和生境的空间分布; (3)加强对本土传粉动物的保护和开发利用。文章最后提出, 为进一步提升传粉服务, 还需加强对传粉者的生物学特征、传粉服务的需求与供给现状、影响传粉动物多样性和传粉服务的农作措施和景观因素等方面的研究。     

Extreme temperature events alter demographic rates,relative fitness,and community structure

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are predicted to increase under future climate change. Despite recent advancements, we still lack a detailed understanding of how changes in the frequency and amplitude of extreme climate events are linked to the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities. To answer this question, we used a combination of laboratory experiments, field experiments, and analysis of multi‐year field observations to reveal the effects of extreme high temperature events on the demographic rates and relative dominance of three co‐occurrence aphid species which differ in their transmission efficiency of different agricultural pathogens. We then linked the geographical shift in their relative dominance to frequent extreme high temperatures through a meta‐analysis. We found that both frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures altered demographic rates of species. However, these effects were species‐specific. Increasing the frequency and amplitude of extreme temperature events altered which species had the highest fitness. Importantly, this change in relative fitness of species was consistent with significant changes in the relative dominance of species in natural communities in a 1 year long field heating experiment and 6 year long field survey of natural populations. Finally, at a global spatial scale, we found the same relationship between relative abundance of species and frequency of extreme temperatures. Together, our results indicate that changes in frequency and amplitude of extreme high temperatures can alter the temporal and spatial structure of natural communities, and that these changes are driven by asymmetric effects of high temperatures on the demographic rates and fitness of species. They also highlight the importance of understanding how extreme events affect the life‐history of species for predicting the impacts of climate change at the individual and community level, and emphasize the importance of using a broad range of approaches when studying climate change.     

Natural Hazards in a Changing World: A Case for Ecosystem-Based Management

Communities worldwide are increasingly affected by natural hazards such as floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves. However, the causes of these increases remain underexplored, often attributed to climate changes or changes in the patterns of human exposure. This paper aims to quantify the effect of climate change, as well as land cover change, on a suite of natural hazards. Changes to four natural hazards (floods, droughts, wildfires and storm-waves) were investigated through scenario-based models using land cover and climate change drivers as inputs. Findings showed that human-induced land cover changes are likely to increase natural hazards, in some cases quite substantially. Of the drivers explored, the uncontrolled spread of invasive alien trees was estimated to halve the monthly flows experienced during extremely dry periods, and also to double fire intensities. Changes to plantation forestry management shifted the 1∶100 year flood event to a 1∶80 year return period in the most extreme scenario. Severe 1∶100 year storm-waves were estimated to occur on an annual basis with only modest human-induced coastal hardening, predominantly from removal of coastal foredunes and infrastructure development. This study suggests that through appropriate land use management (e.g. clearing invasive alien trees, re-vegetating clear-felled forests, and restoring coastal foredunes), it would be possible to reduce the impacts of natural hazards to a large degree. It also highlights the value of intact and well-managed landscapes and their role in reducing the probabilities and impacts of extreme climate events.     

Spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events: a clear and present danger

Extreme weather events have become a dominant feature of the narrative surrounding changes in global climate with large impacts on ecosystem stability, functioning and resilience; however, understanding of their risk of co‐occurrence at the regional scale is lacking. Based on the UK Met Office’s long‐term temperature and rainfall records, we present the first evidence demonstrating significant increases in the magnitude, direction of change and spatial co‐localisation of extreme weather events since 1961. Combining this new understanding with land‐use data sets allowed us to assess the likely consequences on future agricultural production and conservation priority areas. All land‐uses are impacted by the increasing risk of at least one extreme event and conservation areas were identified as the hotspots of risk for the co‐occurrence of multiple event types. Our findings provide a basis to regionally guide land‐use optimisation, land management practices and regulatory actions preserving ecosystem services against multiple climate threats.     

Comparison of pollinators and natural enemies: a meta‐analysis of landscape and local effects on abundance and richness in crops

To manage agroecosystems for multiple ecosystem services, we need to know whether the management of one service has positive, negative, or no effects on other services. We do not yet have data on the interactions between pollination and pest‐control services. However, we do have data on the distributions of pollinators and natural enemies in agroecosystems. Therefore, we compared these two groups of ecosystem service providers, to see if the management of farms and agricultural landscapes might have similar effects on the abundance and richness of both. In a meta‐analysis, we compared 46 studies that sampled bees, predatory beetles, parasitic wasps, and spiders in fields, orchards, or vineyards of food crops. These studies used the proximity or proportion of non‐crop or natural habitats in the landscapes surrounding these crops (a measure of landscape complexity), or the proximity or diversity of non‐crop plants in the margins of these crops (a measure of local complexity), to explain the abundance or richness of these beneficial arthropods. Compositional complexity at both landscape and local scales had positive effects on both pollinators and natural enemies, but different effects on different taxa. Effects on bees and spiders were significantly positive, but effects on parasitoids and predatory beetles (mostly Carabidae and Staphylinidae) were inconclusive. Landscape complexity had significantly stronger effects on bees than it did on predatory beetles and significantly stronger effects in non‐woody rather than in woody crops. Effects on richness were significantly stronger than effects on abundance, but possibly only for spiders. This abundance‐richness difference might be caused by differences between generalists and specialists, or between arthropods that depend on non‐crop habitats (ecotone species and dispersers) and those that do not (cultural species). We call this the ‘specialist‐generalist’ or ‘cultural difference’ mechanism. If complexity has stronger effects on richness than abundance, it might have stronger effects on the stability than the magnitude of these arthropod‐mediated ecosystem services. We conclude that some pollinators and natural enemies seem to have compatible responses to complexity, and it might be possible to manage agroecosystems for the benefit of both. However, too few studies have compared the two, and so we cannot yet conclude that there are no negative interactions between pollinators and natural enemies, and no trade‐offs between pollination and pest‐control services. Therefore, we suggest a framework for future research to bridge these gaps in our knowledge.     

Differentiating drought legacy effects on vegetation growth over the temperate Northern Hemisphere

In view of future changes in climate, it is important to better understand how different plant functional groups (PFGs) respond to warmer and drier conditions, particularly in temperate regions where an increase in both the frequency and severity of drought is expected. The patterns and mechanisms of immediate and delayed impacts of extreme drought on vegetation growth remain poorly quantified. Using satellite measurements of vegetation greenness, in‐situ tree‐ring records, eddy‐covariance CO₂ and water flux measurements, and meta‐analyses of source water of plant use among PFGs, we show that drought legacy effects on vegetation growth differ markedly between forests, shrubs and grass across diverse bioclimatic conditions over the temperate Northern Hemisphere. Deep?rooted forests exhibit a drought legacy response with reduced growth during up to 4 years after an extreme drought, whereas shrubs and grass have drought legacy effects of approximately 2 years and 1 year, respectively. Statistical analyses partly attribute the differences in drought legacy effects among PFGs to plant eco‐hydrological properties (related to traits), including plant water use and hydraulic responses. These results can be used to improve the representation of drought response of different PFGs in land surface models, and assess their biogeochemical and biophysical feedbacks in response to a warmer and drier climate.     

Trends in extreme climatic indices across the temperate steppes of China from 1961 to 2013

Aims Extreme climate events have become more severe and frequent with global change in recent years. The Chinese temperate steppes are an important component of the Eurasian steppes and highly sensitive and vulnerable to climatic change. As a result, the occurrence of extreme climate events must have strong impacts on the temperate steppes. Therefore, understanding the spatio-temporal trends in extreme climate is important for us to assess the sensitivity and vulnerability of Chinese temperate steppes to climatic changes. This research had two specific objects to (i) specify the temporal changes in extreme climate events across the whole steppe and (ii) compare the trend differences for extreme climate events in different types of steppes—meadow steppe, typical steppe and desert steppe.     

近60年来印江河流域极端气候演变及其对净初级生产力和归一化植被指数的影响

极端气候事件的发生改变了区域水热条件,并影响着生态环境变化。然而,目前长时间尺度上极端气候的演变规律及其对生态环境的影响尚不明晰。采用Mann-Kendall趋势及突变检验法、连续小波变换和Hurst指数法揭示了喀斯特槽谷印江河流域极端气候的变化趋势、突变时间、周期性特征和未来演变规律,并利用Lindeman-Merenda-Gold模型定量评估了极端气候溶变对生态环境变化的影响。结果表明：(1)印江河流域极端气温显著上升,降雨量增多,呈现湿热多雨的气候特征。未来极端气温事件持续等级将更高,持续强度也更强。(2)同类型极端气候具有潜在的关联性,但不同类型极端气候间的影响较小,且多呈负相关。(3)印江河流域平均净初级生产力(NPP)和归一化植被指数(NDVI)在2000—2015年间呈现相反的变化趋势,NPP平均值为598.53 g C m^-2 a^-1,平均减少速率为-3.32 g C m^-2 a^-1。NDVI平均值为0.59,平均增长速率为0.0013/a。(4)冷持续指数(CSDI)、平均温差(D...     

Cascading effects of climate extremes on vertebrate fauna through changes to low‐latitude tree flowering and fruiting phenology

Forest vertebrate fauna provide critical services, such as pollination and seed dispersal, which underpin functional and resilient ecosystems. In turn, many of these fauna are dependent on the flowering phenology of the plant species of such ecosystems. The impact of changes in climate, including climate extremes, on the interaction between these fauna and flora has not been identified or elucidated, yet influences on flowering phenology are already evident. These changes are well documented in the mid to high latitudes. However, there is emerging evidence that the flowering phenology, nectar/pollen production, and fruit production of long‐lived trees in tropical and subtropical forests are also being impacted by changes in the frequency and severity of climate extremes. Here, we examine the implications of these changes for vertebrate fauna dependent on these resources. We review the literature to establish evidence for links between climate extremes and flowering phenology, elucidating the nature of relationships between different vertebrate taxa and flowering regimes. We combine this information with climate change projections to postulate about the likely impacts on nectar, pollen and fruit resource availability and the consequences for dependent vertebrate fauna. The most recent climate projections show that the frequency and intensity of climate extremes will increase during the 21st century. These changes are likely to significantly alter mass flowering and fruiting events in the tropics and subtropics, which are frequently cued by climate extremes, such as intensive rainfall events or rapid temperature shifts. We find that in these systems the abundance and duration of resource availability for vertebrate fauna is likely to fluctuate, and the time intervals between episodes of high resource availability to increase. The combined impact of these changes has the potential to result in cascading effects on ecosystems through changes in pollinator and seed dispersal ecology, and demands a focused research effort.     

Pollination ecology and the possible impacts of environmental change in the Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot

The Southwest Australian Biodiversity Hotspot contains an exceptionally diverse flora on an ancient, low-relief but edaphically diverse landscape. Since European colonization, the primary threat to the flora has been habitat clearance, though climate change is an impending threat. Here, we review (i) the ecology of nectarivores and biotic pollination systems in the region, (ii) the evidence that trends in pollination strategies are a consequence of characteristics of the landscape, and (iii) based on these discussions, provide predictions to be tested on the impacts of environmental change on pollination systems. The flora of southwestern Australia has an exceptionally high level of vertebrate pollination, providing the advantage of highly mobile, generalist pollinators. Nectarivorous invertebrates are primarily generalist foragers, though an increasing number of colletid bees are being recognized as being specialized at the level of plant family or more rarely genus. While generalist pollination strategies dominate among insect-pollinated plants, there are some cases of extreme specialization, most notably the multiple evolutions of sexual deception in the Orchidaceae. Preliminary data suggest that bird pollination confers an advantage of greater pollen movement and may represent a mechanism for minimizing inbreeding in naturally fragmented populations. The effects of future environmental change are predicted to result from a combination of the resilience of pollination guilds and changes in their foraging and dispersal behaviour.     

Do we realize the full impact of pollinator loss on other ecosystem services and the challenges for any restoration in terrestrial areas?

Pollinators are key agents for ecosystems and humankind concerning biodiversity, agriculture, climate change adaptation, and all other ecosystem services. Particularly in industrialized countries pollinator diversity is in decline. The bulk of research is on entomological or plant‐pollinator network related topics, but the broad range of impacts of pollinator loss on coupled human and natural systems is not yet studied. As 87% of all flowering plants depend on pollinators, they are basic for all ecosystem services to some extent. Therefore, pollinator loss might cause simultaneous degradation of ecosystem services inducing counterproductive human responses and interlinked poverty spirals. The interaction of climate change, a main risk factor for pollinators, and unadvised human responses to pollinator decline are rarely studied. Tipping points of pollinator loss are not yet identified. Can counterproductive human responses to pollinator deficiency upscale pollinator decline toward a pollinator‐loss syndrome in the course of climate change? The article argues for research on the impacts of pollinator loss on other ecosystem services, useful and counterproductive human strategies on pollinator‐loss induced degradation, and the integration of pollinator protection into all terrestrial restoration efforts.     

Impacts of an Extreme Precipitation Event on Dipterocarp Mortality and Habitat Filtering in a Bornean Tropical Rain Forest

The frequency of extreme precipitation events is predicted to increase in some tropical regions in response to global climate change, but the impacts of this form of disturbance on the structure and dynamics of tropical tree communities across heterogeneous landscapes remain understudied. We determined the effects of an extreme precipitation event (EPE) in July 2006 on mortality of dipterocarps on a 68 ha permanent inventory plot in Sepilok Forest Reserve, Sabah. For stems ≥30 cm dbh, 12 of the 15 species of Dipterocarpaceae on this plot have significant positive and/or negative associations to habitats defined by topography and soil type. Short‐term mortality induced by the EPE was much greater for individuals growing on the alluvial floodplain (13.7%) than in the mudstone (1.4%) or sandstone (0.0%) habitats, but mortality of dipterocarps did not differ among these habitats in the subsequent 5‐yr interval. The likelihood of mortality in response to the EPE was highest for a small group of fast growing dipterocarps that possess low wood density and a strong association to the alluvial forest habitat. This group of species represents a high percentage of dipterocarp individuals but a low proportion of dipterocarp diversity in this habitat. We conclude that disturbance induced by high rainfall events contributes to the episodic nature of tropical forest dynamics, and that increases in the frequency of these events would disproportionately impact low‐lying alluvial forest environments and some of the species growing in them.     

Effects of climate extremes on the terrestrial carbon cycle: concepts,processes and potential future impacts

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance‐induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well‐defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta‐analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land‐cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground‐based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub‐)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon–climate feedbacks.     

Arctic browning: Impacts of extreme climatic events on heathland ecosystem CO2 fluxes

Extreme climatic events are among the drivers of recent declines in plant biomass and productivity observed across Arctic ecosystems, known as “Arctic browning.” These events can cause landscape‐scale vegetation damage and so are likely to have major impacts on ecosystem CO₂ balance. However, there is little understanding of the impacts on CO₂ fluxes, especially across the growing season. Furthermore, while widespread shoot mortality is commonly observed with browning events, recent observations show that shoot stress responses are also common, and manifest as high levels of persistent anthocyanin pigmentation. Whether or how this response impacts ecosystem CO₂ fluxes is not known. To address these research needs, a growing season assessment of browning impacts following frost drought and extreme winter warming (both extreme climatic events) on the key ecosystem CO₂ fluxes Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE), Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), ecosystem respiration (R_eco) and soil respiration (R_soil) was carried out in widespread sub‐Arctic dwarf shrub heathland, incorporating both mortality and stress responses. Browning (mortality and stress responses combined) caused considerable site‐level reductions in GPP and NEE (of up to 44%), with greatest impacts occurring at early and late season. Furthermore, impacts on CO₂ fluxes associated with stress often equalled or exceeded those resulting from vegetation mortality. This demonstrates that extreme events can have major impacts on ecosystem CO₂ balance, considerably reducing the carbon sink capacity of the ecosystem, even where vegetation is not killed. Structural Equation Modelling and additional measurements, including decomposition rates and leaf respiration, provided further insight into mechanisms underlying impacts of mortality and stress on CO₂ fluxes. The scale of reductions in ecosystem CO₂ uptake highlights the need for a process‐based understanding of Arctic browning in order to predict how vegetation and CO₂ balance will respond to continuing climate change.     

Effects of past and projected river discharge variability on freshwater production in an anadromous fish

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1982-2020年内蒙古地区极端气候变化及其对植被的影响

内蒙古地处生态环境脆弱区,对气候变化尤为敏感。在全球气候变暖背景下,探究极端气候变化及其影响显得尤为重要。基于内蒙古地区115个气象站点1982—2020年的逐日气象数据,从强度、持续时间、频率3个维度出发计算了18个极端气候指数,在综合分析极端气候的时空变化特征的基础上,运用地理探测器和皮尔逊相关分析方法,定量评估极端气候对该区植被的影响。结果表明：(1)极端暖指数均呈增加趋势,说明1982—2020年期间内蒙古地区极端偏暖现象增多。(2)持续干旱日数与持续湿润日数呈减少趋势,说明39年来内蒙古地区连续性无降水天数和降水天数均减少。(3)极端气候指数与归一化植被指数(NDVI)的相关关系表现出明显的空间异质性,表明内蒙古不同区域NDVI对各极端气候指数的响应程度不同。(4)因子探测器结果表明极端降水指数相对于极端气温指数来说,对内蒙古植被生长变化的影响较大。研究结果可为内蒙古地区防灾减灾与生态修复工程提供一定的科学依据。     

Plant–pollinator interactions and phenological change: what can we learn about climate impacts from experiments and observations?

Climate change can affect plant–pollinator interactions in a variety of ways, but much of the research attention has focused on whether independent shifts in phenology will alter temporal overlap between plants and pollinators. Here I review the research on plant–pollinator mismatch, assessing the potential for observational and experimental approaches to address particular aspects of the problem. Recent, primarily observational studies suggest that phenologies of co‐occurring plants and pollinators tend to respond similarly to environmental cues, but that nevertheless, certain pairs of interacting species are showing independent shifts in phenology. Only in a few cases, however, have these independent shifts been shown to affect population vital rates (specifically, seed production by plants) but this largely reflects a lack of research. Compared to the few long‐term studies of pollination in natural plant populations, experimental manipulations of phenology have yielded relatively optimistic conclusions about effects of phenological shifts on plant reproduction, and I discuss how issues of scale and frequency‐dependence in pollinator behaviour affect the interpretation of these ‘temporal transplant’ experiments. Comparable research on the impacts of mismatch on pollinator populations is so far lacking, but both observational studies and focused experiments have the potential to improve our forecasts of pollinator responses to changing phenologies. Finally, while there is now evidence that plant–pollinator mismatch can affect seed production by plants, it is still unclear whether this phenological impact will be the primary way in which climate change affects plant–pollinator interactions. It would be useful to test the direct effects of changing climate on pollinator population persistence, and to compare the importance of phenological mismatch with other threats to pollination.     

Pyrodiversity promotes interaction complementarity and population resistance

Theory predicts that network characteristics may help anticipate how populations and communities respond to extreme climatic events, but local environmental context may also influence responses to extreme events. For example, altered fire regimes in many ecosystems may significantly affect the context for how species and communities respond to changing climate. In this study, I tested whether the responses of a pollinator community to extreme drought were influenced by the surrounding diversity of fire histories (pyrodiversity) which can influence their interaction networks via changing partner availability. I found that at the community level, pyrodiverse landscapes promote functional complementarity and generalization, but did not consistently enhance functional redundancy or resistance to simulated co‐extinction cascades. Pyrodiversity instead supported flexible behaviors that enable populations to resist perturbations. Specifically, pollinators that can shift partners and network niches are better able to take advantage of the heterogeneity generated by pyrodiversity, thereby buffering pollinator populations against changes in plant abundances. These findings suggest that pyrodiversity is unlikely to improve community‐level resistance to droughts, but instead promotes population resistance and community functionality. This study provides unique evidence that resistance to extreme climatic events depends on both network properties and historical environmental context.     

Pollinator‐mediated interactions between cultivated papaya and co‐flowering plant species

Many modern crop varieties rely on animal pollination to set fruit and seeds. Intensive crop plantations usually do not provide suitable habitats for pollinators so crop yield may depend on the surrounding vegetation to maintain pollination services. However, little is known about the effect of pollinator‐mediated interactions among co‐flowering plants on crop yield or the underlying mechanisms. Plant reproductive success is complex, involving several pre‐ and post‐pollination events; however, the current literature has mainly focused on pre‐pollination events in natural plant communities. We assessed pollinator sharing and the contribution to pollinator diet in a community of wild and cultivated plants that co‐flower with a focal papaya plantation. In addition, we assessed heterospecific pollen transfer to the stigmatic loads of papaya and its effect on fruit and seed production. We found that papaya shared at least one pollinator species with the majority of the co‐flowering plants. Despite this, heterospecific pollen transfer in cultivated papaya was low in open‐pollinated flowers. Hand‐pollination experiments suggest that heterospecific pollen transfer has no negative effect on fruit production or weight, but does reduce seed production. These results suggest that co‐flowering plants offer valuable floral resources to pollinators that are shared with cultivated papaya with little or no cost in terms of heterospecific pollen transfer. Although HP reduced seed production, a reduced number of seeds per se are not negative, given that from an agronomic perspective the number of seeds does not affect the monetary value of the papaya fruit.