Rainfall seasonality predicts the germination behavior of a tropical dry‐forest vine

Seed dormancy is considered to be an adaptive strategy in seasonal and/or unpredictable environments because it prevents germination during climatically favorable periods that are too short for seedling establishment. Tropical dry forests are seasonal environments where seed dormancy may play an important role in plant resilience and resistance to changing precipitation patterns. We studied the germination behavior of seeds from six populations of the Neotropical vine Dalechampia scandens (Euphorbiaceae) originating from environments of contrasting rainfall seasonality. Seeds produced by second greenhouse‐generation plants were measured and exposed to a favorable wet environment at different time intervals after capsule dehiscence and seed dispersal. We recorded the success and the timing of germination. All populations produced at least some dormant seeds, but seeds of populations originating from more seasonal environments required longer periods of after‐ripening before germinating. Within populations, larger seeds tended to require longer after‐ripening periods than did smaller seeds. These results indicate among‐population genetic differences in germination behavior and suggest that these populations are adapted to local environmental conditions. They also suggest that seed size may influence germination timing within populations. Ongoing changes in seasonality patterns in tropical dry forests may impose strong selection on these traits.     

Annual variation in long‐distance dispersal driven by breeding and non‐breeding season climatic conditions in a migratory bird

Long‐distance dispersal is a fundamental process in ecology and evolution but the factors that influence these movements remain poorly understood in most species. We used stable hydrogen isotopes to quantify the rate and direction of long‐distance immigration in a breeding population of American redstarts and to test whether the settlement decisions that result in long‐distance dispersal are driven by habitat saturation or by the phenology of breeding‐season resources. Our results provide evidence that both natal dispersal and breeding dispersal were influenced by the timing of breeding‐season phenology, with both age classes more likely to disperse north in years when the onset of breeding‐season phenology occurs earlier than normal. Yearlings were also more likely to disperse north following winters with poor habitat quality on their non‐breeding grounds, demonstrating that carry‐over effects from the non‐breeding season influence natal dispersal in this species. Collectively, these results are consistent with the hypothesis that American redstarts use the phenology of breeding season resources as a cue to select breeding sites. Our results suggest that long‐distance dispersal may allow individuals to rapidly respond to advancing phenology caused by global climate change, though their ability to do so may be constrained by long‐term decline in habitat quality predicted for their tropical non‐breeding grounds.     

Delayed egg‐laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.     

CLINAL VARIATION IN SEED TRAITS INFLUENCING LIFE CYCLE TIMING IN ARABIDOPSIS THALIANA

Early life‐history transitions are crucial determinants of lifetime survival and fecundity. Adaptive evolution in early life‐history traits involves a complex interplay between the developing plant and its current and future environments. We examined the plant's earliest life‐history traits, dissecting an integrated suite of pregermination processes: primary dormancy, thermal induction of secondary dormancy, and seasonal germination response. We examined genetic variation in the three processes, genetic correlations among the processes, and the scaling of germination phenology with the source populations’ climates. A spring annual life history was associated with genetic propensities toward both strong primary dormancy and heat‐induced secondary dormancy, alone or in combination. Lineages with similar proportions of winter and spring annual life history have both weak primary dormancy and weak thermal dormancy induction. A genetic bias to adopt a spring annual strategy, mediated by rapid loss of primary dormancy and high thermal dormancy induction, is associated with a climatic gradient characterized by increasing temperature in summer and rainfall in winter. This study highlights the importance of considering combinations of multiple genetically based traits along a climatic gradient as adaptive strategies differentiating annual plant life‐history strategies. Despite the genetic‐climatic cline, there is polymorphism for life‐history strategies within populations, classically interpreted as bet hedging in an unpredictable world.     

Effects of seed release timing on plant life-history and seed production in a population of a desert annual,shape Blepharis sindica (Acanthaceae)

Growth, phenology, survivorship, and seed production were observed in a population of a desert annual, Blepharis sindica, with reference to the variation in the timing of seedling emergence. The population consisted of several cohorts induced by rain-cued seed release within a growing season. The fate of 100 individuals of six cohorts was monitored throughout the growing season. Earlier-established cohorts had significantly larger plant sizes and higher reproductive outputs than later cohorts. The time and duration of each phenological stage varied among the cohorts, and they were also influenced by plant size. Mortalities at the seedling stage, vegetative stage, and reproductive stage increased with the delay of seed release. Seed release was concentrated in the early growing season. Fecundity was highest in the earliest cohort and decreased monotonically in later cohorts. The results suggested that even in temporally varying environments, the superiority of early emergent plants was evident. The seed release patterns in temporally fluctuating desert environments are discussed as a compromise between 'diversified bet-hedging' and an optimal timing for maximizing the reproductive success in a growing season.     

Aberrant clones: Birth order generates life history diversity in Greater Duckweed,Spirodela polyrhiza

Environmental unpredictability is known to result in the evolution of bet‐hedging traits. Variable dormancy enhances survival through harsh conditions, and is widely cited as a diversification bet‐hedging trait. The floating aquatic plant, Spirodela polyrhiza (Greater Duckweed), provides an opportunity to study diversification because although partially reliable seasonal cues exist, its growing season is subject to an unpredictable and literally “hard” termination when the surface water freezes, and overwinter survival depends on a switch from production of normal daughter fronds to production of dense, sinking “turions” prior to freeze‐over. The problem for S. polyrhiza is that diversified dormancy behavior must be generated among clonally produced, genetically identical offspring. Variation in phenology has been observed in the field, but its sources are unknown. Here, we investigate sources of phenological variation in turion production, and test the hypothesis that diversification in turion phenology is generated within genetic lineages through effects of parental birth order. As expected, phenotypic plasticity to temperature is expressed along a thermal gradient; more interestingly, parental birth order was found to have a significant and strong effect on turion phenology: Turions are produced earlier by late birth‐order parents. These results hold regardless of whether turion phenology is measured as first turion birth order, time to first turion, or turion frequency. This study addresses a question of current interest on potential mechanisms generating diversification, and suggests that consistent phenotypic differences across birth orders generate life history variation.     

Plant phenological responses to a long‐term experimental extension of growing season and soil warming in the tussock tundra of Alaska

Climate warming is strongly altering the timing of season initiation and season length in the Arctic. Phenological activities are among the most sensitive plant responses to climate change and have important effects at all levels within the ecosystem. We tested the effects of two experimental treatments, extended growing season via snow removal and extended growing season combined with soil warming, on plant phenology in tussock tundra in Alaska from 1995 through 2003. We specifically monitored the responses of eight species, representing four growth forms: (i) graminoids (Carex bigellowii and Eriophorum vaginatum); (ii) evergreen shrubs (Ledum palustre, Cassiope tetragona, and Vaccinium vitis‐idaea); (iii) deciduous shrubs (Betula nana and Salix pulchra); and (iv) forbs (Polygonum bistorta). Our study answered three questions: (i) Do experimental treatments affect the timing of leaf bud break, flowering, and leaf senescence? (ii) Are responses to treatments species‐specific and growth form‐specific? and (iii) Which environmental factors best predict timing of phenophases? Treatment significantly affected the timing of all three phenophases, although the two experimental treatments did not differ from each other. While phenological events began earlier in the experimental plots relative to the controls, duration of phenophases did not increase. The evergreen shrub, Cassiope tetragona, did not respond to either experimental treatment. While the other species did respond to experimental treatments, the total active period for these species did not increase relative to the control. Air temperature was consistently the best predictor of phenology. Our results imply that some evergreen shrubs (i.e., C. tetragona) will not capitalize on earlier favorable growing conditions, putting them at a competitive disadvantage relative to phenotypically plastic deciduous shrubs. Our findings also suggest that an early onset of the growing season as a result of decreased snow cover will not necessarily result in greater tundra productivity.     

Within‐and among‐year germination in Sonoran Desert winter annuals: bet hedging and predictive germination in a variable environment

In variable environments, organisms must have strategies to ensure fitness as conditions change. For plants, germination can time emergence with favourable conditions for later growth and reproduction (predictive germination), spread the risk of unfavourable conditions (bet hedging) or both (integrated strategies). Here we explored the adaptive value of within‐ and among‐year germination timing for 12 species of Sonoran Desert winter annual plants. We parameterised models with long‐term demographic data to predict optimal germination fractions and compared them to observed germination. At both temporal scales we found that bet hedging is beneficial and that predicted optimal strategies corresponded well with observed germination. We also found substantial fitness benefits to varying germination timing, suggesting some degree of predictive germination in nature. However, predictive germination was imperfect, calling for some degree of bet hedging. Together, our results suggest that desert winter annuals have integrated strategies combining both predictive plasticity and bet hedging.     

Landscape controls on the timing of spring,autumn, and growing season length in mid‐Atlantic forests

The timing of spring leaf development, trajectories of summer leaf area, and the timing of autumn senescence have profound impacts to the water, carbon, and energy balance of ecosystems, and are likely influenced by global climate change. Limited field‐based and remote‐sensing observations have suggested complex spatial patterns related to geographic features that influence climate. However, much of this variability occurs at spatial scales that inhibit a detailed understanding of even the dominant drivers. Recognizing these limitations, we used nonlinear inverse modeling of medium‐resolution remote sensing data, organized by day of year, to explore the influence of climate‐related landscape factors on the timing of spring and autumn leaf‐area trajectories in mid‐Atlantic, USA forests. We also examined the extent to which declining summer greenness (greendown) degrades the precision and accuracy of observations of autumn offset of greenness. Of the dominant drivers of landscape phenology, elevation was the strongest, explaining up to 70% of the spatial variation in the onset of greenness. Urban land cover was second in importance, influencing spring onset and autumn offset to a distance of 32 km from large cities. Distance to tidal water also influenced phenological timing, but only within ~5 km of shorelines. Additionally, we observed that (i) growing season length unexpectedly increases with increasing elevation at elevations below 275 m; (ii) along gradients in urban land cover, timing of autumn offset has a stronger effect on growing season length than does timing of spring onset; and (iii) summer greendown introduces bias and uncertainty into observations of the autumn offset of greenness. These results demonstrate the power of medium grain analyses of landscape‐scale phenology for understanding environmental controls on growing season length, and predicting how these might be affected by climate change.     

Conflicting selection on the timing of germination in a natural population of Arabidopsis thaliana

The timing of germination is a key life‐history trait that may strongly influence plant fitness and that sets the stage for selection on traits expressed later in the life cycle. In seasonal environments, the period favourable for germination and the total length of the growing season are limited. The optimal timing of germination may therefore be governed by conflicting selection through survival and fecundity. We conducted a field experiment to examine the effects of timing of germination on survival, fecundity and overall fitness in a natural population of the annual herb Arabidopsis thaliana in north‐central Sweden. Seedlings were transplanted at three different times in late summer and in autumn covering the period of seed germination in the study population. Early germination was associated with low seedling survival, but also with high survival and fecundity among established plants. The advantages of germinating early more than balanced the disadvantage and selection favoured early germination. The results suggest that low survival among early germinating seeds is the main force opposing the evolution of earlier germination and that the optimal timing of germination should vary in space and time as a function of the direction and strength of selection acting during different life‐history stages.     

The shifting phenological landscape: Within‐ and between‐species variation in leaf emergence in a mixed‐deciduous woodland

Many organisms rely on synchronizing the timing of their life‐history events with those of other trophic levels—known as phenological matching—for survival or successful reproduction. In temperate deciduous forests, the extent of matching with the budburst date of key tree species is of particular relevance for many herbivorous insects and, in turn, insectivorous birds. In order to understand the ecological and evolutionary forces operating in these systems, we require knowledge of the factors influencing leaf emergence of tree communities. However, little is known about how phenology at the level of individual trees varies across landscapes, or how consistent this spatial variation is between different tree species. Here, we use field observations, collected over 2 years, to characterize within‐ and between‐species differences in spring phenology for 825 trees of six species (Quercus robur, Fraxinus excelsior, Fagus sylvatica, Betula pendula, Corylus avellana, and Acer pseudoplatanus) in a 385‐ha woodland. We explore environmental predictors of individual variation in budburst date and bud development rate and establish how these phenological traits vary over space. Trees of all species showed markedly consistent individual differences in their budburst timing. Bud development rate also varied considerably between individuals and was repeatable in oak, beech, and sycamore. We identified multiple predictors of budburst date including altitude, local temperature, and soil type, but none were universal across species. Furthermore, we found no evidence for interspecific covariance of phenology over space within the woodland. These analyses suggest that phenological landscapes are highly complex, varying over small spatial scales both within and between species. Such spatial variation in vegetation phenology is likely to influence patterns of selection on phenology within populations of consumers. Knowledge of the factors shaping the phenological environments experienced by animals is therefore likely to be key in understanding how these evolutionary processes operate.     

When to start and when to stop: Effects of climate on breeding in a multi‐brooded songbird

Climate warming has been shown to affect the timing of the onset of breeding of many bird species across the world. However, for multi‐brooded species, climate may also affect the timing of the end of the breeding season, and hence also its duration, and these effects may have consequences for fitness. We used 28 years of field data to investigate the links between climate, timing of breeding, and breeding success in a cooperatively breeding passerine, the superb fairy‐wren (Malurus cyaneus). This multi‐brooded species from southeastern Australia has a long breeding season and high variation in phenology between individuals. By applying a “sliding window” approach, we found that higher minimum temperatures in early spring resulted in an earlier start and a longer duration of breeding, whereas less rainfall and more heatwaves (days > 29°C) in late summer resulted in an earlier end and a shorter duration of breeding. Using a hurdle model analysis, we found that earlier start dates did not predict whether or not females produced any young in a season. However, for successful females who produced at least one young, earlier start dates were associated with higher numbers of young produced in a season. Earlier end dates were associated with a higher probability of producing at least one young, presumably because unsuccessful females kept trying when others had ceased. Despite larger scale trends in climate, climate variables in the windows relevant to this species’ phenology did not change across years, and there were no temporal trends in phenology during our study period. Our results illustrate a scenario in which higher temperatures advanced both start and end dates of individuals’ breeding seasons, but did not generate an overall temporal shift in breeding times. They also suggest that the complexity of selection pressures on breeding phenology in multi‐brooded species may have been underestimated.     

Seed after-ripening and dormancy determine adult life history independently of germination timing

? Seed dormancy can affect life history through its effects on germination time. Here, we investigate its influence on life history beyond the timing of germination. ? We used the response of Arabidopsis thaliana to chilling at the germination and flowering stages to test the following: how seed dormancy affects germination responses to the environment; whether variation in dormancy affects adult phenology independently of germination time; and whether environmental cues experienced by dormant seeds have an effect on adult life history. ? Dormancy conditioned the germination response to low temperatures, such that prolonged periods of chilling induced dormancy in nondormant seeds, but stimulated germination in dormant seeds. The alleviation of dormancy through after-ripening was associated with earlier flowering, independent of germination date. Experimental dormancy manipulations showed that prolonged chilling at the seed stage always induced earlier flowering, regardless of seed dormancy. Surprisingly, this effect of seed chilling on flowering time was observed even when low temperatures did not induce germination. ? In summary, seed dormancy influences flowering time and hence life history independent of its effects on germination timing. We conclude that the seed stage has a pronounced effect on life history, the influence of which goes well beyond the timing of germination.     

A natural heating experiment: Phenotypic and genotypic responses of plant phenology to geothermal soil warming

Under global warming, the survival of many populations of sedentary organisms in seasonal environments will largely depend on their ability to cope with warming in situ by means of phenotypic plasticity or adaptive evolution. This is particularly true in high‐latitude environments, where current growing seasons are short, and expected temperature increases large. In such short‐growing season environments, the timing of growth and reproduction is critical to survival. Here, we use the unique setting provided by a natural geothermal soil warming gradient (Hengill geothermal area, Iceland) to study the response of Cerastium fontanum flowering phenology to temperature. We hypothesized that trait expression and phenotypic selection on flowering phenology are related to soil temperature, and tested the hypothesis that temperature‐driven differences in selection on phenology have resulted in genetic differentiation using a common garden experiment. In the field, phenology was related to soil temperature, with plants in warmer microsites flowering earlier than plants at colder microsites. In the common garden, plants responded to spring warming in a counter‐gradient fashion; plants originating from warmer microsites flowered relatively later than those originating from colder microsites. A likely explanation for this pattern is that plants from colder microsites have been selected to compensate for the shorter growing season by starting development at lower temperatures. However, in our study we did not find evidence of variation in phenotypic selection on phenology in relation to temperature, but selection consistently favoured early flowering. Our results show that soil temperature influences trait expression and suggest the existence of genetically based variation in flowering phenology leading to counter‐gradient local adaptation along a gradient of soil temperatures. An important implication of our results is that observed phenotypic responses of phenology to global warming might often be a combination of short‐term plastic responses and long‐term evolutionary responses, acting in different directions.     

The timing of autumn senescence is affected by the timing of spring phenology: implications for predictive models

Autumn senescence regulates multiple aspects of ecosystem function, along with associated feedbacks to the climate system. Despite its importance, current understanding of the drivers of senescence is limited, leading to a large spread in predictions of how the timing of senescence, and thus the length of the growing season, will change under future climate conditions. The most commonly held paradigm is that temperature and photoperiod are the primary controls, which suggests a future extension of the autumnal growing season as global temperatures rise. Here, using two decades of ground‐ and satellite‐based observations of temperate deciduous forest phenology, we show that the timing of autumn senescence is correlated with the timing of spring budburst across the entire eastern United States. On a year‐to‐year basis, an earlier/later spring was associated with an earlier/later autumn senescence, both for individual species and at a regional scale. We use the observed relationship to develop a novel model of autumn phenology. In contrast to current phenology models, this model predicts that the potential response of autumn phenology to future climate change is strongly limited by the impact of climate change on spring phenology. Current models of autumn phenology therefore may overpredict future increases in the length of the growing season, with subsequent impacts for modeling future CO₂ uptake and evapotranspiration.     

Controls over reproductive phenology among ungulates: allometry and tropical‐temperate contrasts

Ungulates inhabiting high latitudes schedule the timing of conceptions so that offspring are born during the most favourable nutritional conditions for reproductive success. The optimal period for births is less reliably predictable in tropical and subtropical savanna environments where plant growth is governed by rainfall, suggesting that reproductive phenology could be influenced more proximately by resources affecting the body condition of females around the time of conceptions. To assess how these controls operate, we compared the timing of births and conceptions among tropical and subtropical savanna ungulates with the patterns shown by ungulates in northern temperate or subarctic latitudes. The association between the timing of births and the onset of plant growth early in the growing season is less consistent among tropical savanna ungulates than among ungulates inhabiting northern temperate environments, and apparently subject to other influences affecting vegetation phenology. Nevertheless, birth peaks seem to coincide with the time of the year when forage quality is expected to be best for offspring survival and growth for most tropical or subtropical ungulates with gestation periods shorter than a year. When gestation time exceeds one year, proximal effects of nutritional conditions around the time of conceptions apparently become overriding and birth synchrony with early season plant growth is no longer effective. Proximate nutritional influences on conceptions may also govern the somewhat diffuse spread of births shown by ungulate populations in equatorial latitudes where photoperiod cues controlling oestrus and mating cannot be used to schedule the later timing of births.     

Ecological genetics of seed germination regulation in Bromus tectorum L.

Regulation of seed germination phenology is an important aspect of the life history strategy of invading annual plant species. In the obligately selfing winter annual grass Bromus tectorum, seeds are at least conditionally dormant at dispersal in early summer and lose dormancy through dry-afterripening. Patterns of germination response at dispersal vary among populations and sometimes across years within populations. To assess the relative contribution of genotype and maturation environment to this variation, we grew progeny of ten parental lines from each of six contrasting populations in a common greenhouse environment. We then tested the germination responses of recently harvested seeds of the putative full-sib progeny at five incubation temperatures. Significant germination response differences among populations were observed in greenhouse cultivation, and major differences among full-sib families were evident for some populations and traits. Among-population variation accounted for over 90% of the variance in each trait, while within-family variance accounted for 1% or less. Germination responses of greenhouse-grown progeny were positively correlated with the responses of wild-collected seeds, but there was a tendency for lowered dormancy at higher incubation temperatures. This tendency was more marked in populations from cold desert, foothill, and plains habitats, suggesting a genotype-maturation environment interaction. Differences among populations in the amount of among-family variance were more evident at lower incubation temperatures, while among-family variance was more uniformly low at summer incubation temperatures. Populations from predictable extreme environments (subalpine meadow and warm desert margin) showed significantly less variation among families than populations from less predictable cold desert, foothill, and plains environments. Low among-family variance was not specifically associated with small population size or marginality of habitat, as small marginal populations from unpredictable environments showed variance as high as that of large populations. In populations with high among-family variance for germination traits, germination responses tended to be correlated across incubation temperatures, making it possible to characterize families in terms of their general dormancy status. The results indicate that seed germination regulation in this species is probably under strong genetic control, and that habitats with temporally varying selection are occupied by populations that tend to be more polymorphic in terms of their germination response patterns. Received: 19 May 1998 / Accepted: 27 January 1999     

Extension of the growing season due to delayed autumn over mid and high latitudes in North America during 1982–2006

Aim We intend to characterize and understand the spatial and temporal patterns of vegetation phenology shifts in North America during the period 1982–2006. Location North America. Methods A piecewise logistic model is used to extract phenological metrics from a time‐series data set of the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI). An extensive comparison between satellite‐derived phenological metrics and ground‐based phenology observations for 14,179 records of 73 plant species at 802 sites across North America is made to evaluate the information about phenology shifts obtained in this study. Results The spatial pattern of vegetation phenology shows a strong dependence on latitude but a substantial variation along the longitudinal gradient. A delayed dormancy onset date (0.551 days year^?1, P= 0.013) and an extended growing season length (0.683 days year^?1, P= 0.011) are found over the mid and high latitudes in North America during 1982–2006, while no significant trends in greenup onset are observed. The delayed dormancy onset date and extended growing season length are mainly found in the shrubland biome. An extensive validation indicates a strong robustness of the satellite‐derived phenology information. Main conclusions It is the delayed dormancy onset date, rather than an advanced greenup onset date, that has contributed to the prolonged length of the growing season over the mid and high latitudes in North America during recent decades. Shrublands contribute the most to the delayed dormancy onset date and the extended growing season length. This shift of vegetation phenology implies that vegetation activity in North America has been altered by climatic change, which may further affect ecosystem structure and function in the continent.     

Playing smart vs. playing safe: the joint expression of phenotypic plasticity and potential bet hedging across and within thermal environments

Adaptive phenotypic plasticity evolves when cues reliably predict fitness consequences of life‐history decisions, whereas bet hedging evolves when environments are unpredictable. These modes of response should be jointly expressed, because environmental variance is composed of both predictable and unpredictable components. However, little attention has been paid to the joint expression of plasticity and bet hedging. Here, I examine the simultaneous expression of plasticity in germination rate and two potential bet‐hedging traits – germination fraction and within‐season diversification in timing of germination – in seeds from multiple seed families of five geographically distant populations of Lobelia inflata (L.) subjected to a thermal gradient. Populations differ in germination plasticity to temperature, in total germination fraction and in the expression of potential diversification in the timing of germination. The observation of a negative partial correlation between the expression of plasticity and germination variance (potential diversification), and a positive correlation between plasticity and germination fraction is suggestive of a trade‐off between modes of response to environmental variance. If the observed correlations are indicative of those between adaptive plasticity and bet hedging, we expect an optimal balance to exist and differ among populations. I discuss the challenges involved in testing whether the balance between plasticity and bet hedging depends on the relative predictability of environmental variance.