Rate heterogeneity across Squamata,misleading ancestral state reconstruction and the importance of proper null model specification

The binary‐state speciation and extinction (BiSSE) model has been used in many instances to identify state‐dependent diversification and reconstruct ancestral states. However, recent studies have shown that the standard procedure of comparing the fit of the BiSSE model to constant‐rate birth–death models often inappropriately favours the BiSSE model when diversification rates vary in a state‐independent fashion. The newly developed HiSSE model enables researchers to identify state‐dependent diversification rates while accounting for state‐independent diversification at the same time. The HiSSE model also allows researchers to test state‐dependent models against appropriate state‐independent null models that have the same number of parameters as the state‐dependent models being tested. We reanalyse two data sets that originally used BiSSE to reconstruct ancestral states within squamate reptiles and reached surprising conclusions regarding the evolution of toepads within Gekkota and viviparity across Squamata. We used this new method to demonstrate that there are many shifts in diversification rates across squamates. We then fit various HiSSE submodels and null models to the state and phylogenetic data and reconstructed states under these models. We found that there is no single, consistent signal for state‐dependent diversification associated with toepads in gekkotans or viviparity across all squamates. Our reconstructions show limited support for the recently proposed hypotheses that toepads evolved multiple times independently in Gekkota and that transitions from viviparity to oviparity are common in Squamata. Our results highlight the importance of considering an adequate pool of models and null models when estimating diversification rate parameters and reconstructing ancestral states.     

Assessing the causes of diversification slowdowns: temperature‐dependent and diversity‐dependent models receive equivalent support

Diversification rates vary over time, yet the factors driving these variations remain unclear. Temporal declines in speciation rates have often been interpreted as the effect of ecological limits, competition, and diversity dependence, emphasising the role of biotic factors. Abiotic factors, such as climate change, are also supposed to have affected diversification rates over geological time scales, yet direct tests of these presumed effects have mainly been limited to few clades well represented in the fossil record. If warmer climatic periods have sustained faster speciation, this could explain slowdowns in speciation during the Cenozoic climate cooling. Here, we apply state‐of‐the art diversity‐dependent and temperature‐dependent phylogenetic models of diversification to 218 tetrapod families, along with constant rate and time‐dependent models. We confirm the prevalence of diversification slowdowns, and find as much support for temperature‐dependent than diversity‐dependent models. These results call for a better integration of these two processes in studies of diversification dynamics.     

Parasitoid fig‐wasp evolutionary diversification and variation in ecological opportunity

Ecological processes are manifest in the evolution and form of phenotype diversity. The great abundance of parasitoid species has led to speculation whether rates of speciation and extinction are dependent on parasitoid diversity. If these factors are mutually exclusive, species diversity should fluctuate instead of remaining relatively constant over time. It is not known whether radiations constrained by coevolutionary interactions conform to density‐dependent diversification processes. Here we test the prediction that parasitoid fig wasp diversification responds to changes in ecological opportunity and density‐independent processes. A phylogenetic approach is used to estimate relative divergence times and infer diversification rate changes using γ‐statistics. Monte Carlo constant rates tests that accommodate incomplete sampling could not reject constant rates diversification. Parasitoid fig wasp diversification is consistent with a more complex explanation than density‐dependent cladogenesis. The results suggest contemporary African parasitoid fig wasp diversity remains a legacy of an ancient ecological opportunity facilitated by fig tree diversification following the breakup of Pan‐African forests and evolution of the savanna biome over the last 55 Ma and the more recent aridification of the African continent in the last 5 Ma. These results imply that amplified phenotypic differentiation of specialist insects coevolving with plants is coupled to evolutionarily infrequent changes in ecological opportunity.     

The great American biotic interchange and diversification history in Dynastes beetles (Scarabaeidae; Dynastinae)

Biotic interchange between geographic regions can promote rapid diversification. However, what are the important factors that determine the rate of diversification (e.g., trait‐dependent diversification) vary between study systems. The evolutionary history of Dynastes beetles, which can be found in both North and South Americas and exhibit two different altitudinal preferences (highland and lowland) is tested for the effects of biotic interchange between continents and different ecological preferences on the rate of species diversification. Additionally, the hypotheses of geological time‐dependent and lineage specific diversification rates are also tested. Results from this study indicate that in Dynastes beetles a pre‐landbridge dispersal hypothesis from South to North America is preferred and that the speciation rates estimated using BAMM are similar between lineages of different geographic origins and different altitudinal preferences (i.e., diversification rate is not trait‐dependent). On the other hand, my result from marcoevolutionary cohort analysis based on BAMM outputs suggests that the rate of speciation in Dynastes beetles is, instead of trait‐dependent (geographic and ecological), lineage specific. Furthermore, a steadily increasing speciation rate can be found in Pliocene and Pleistocene, which implies that geological and climatic events, i.e., colonizing North America, habitat reformation in the Amazonia, and forest contraction in Pleistocene, may have together shaped the current biodiversity pattern in Dynastes beetles.     

FiSSE: A simple nonparametric test for the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates

It is widely assumed that phenotypic traits can influence rates of speciation and extinction, and several statistical approaches have been used to test for correlations between character states and lineage diversification. Recent work suggests that model‐based tests of state‐dependent speciation and extinction are sensitive to model inadequacy and phylogenetic pseudoreplication. We describe a simple nonparametric statistical test (“FiSSE”) to assess the effects of a binary character on lineage diversification rates. The method involves computing a test statistic that compares the distributions of branch lengths for lineages with and without a character state of interest. The value of the test statistic is compared to a null distribution generated by simulating character histories on the observed phylogeny. Our tests show that FiSSE can reliably infer trait‐dependent speciation on phylogenies of several hundred tips. The method has low power to detect trait‐dependent extinction but can infer state‐dependent differences in speciation even when net diversification rates are constant. We assemble a range of macroevolutionary scenarios that are problematic for likelihood‐based methods, and we find that FiSSE does not show similarly elevated false positive rates. We suggest that nonparametric statistical approaches, such as FiSSE, provide an important complement to formal process‐based models for trait‐dependent diversification.     

When are adaptive radiations replicated in areas? Ecological opportunity and unexceptional diversification in West Indian dipsadine snakes (Colubridae: Alsophiini)

Aim We examine diversification in Caribbean alsophiine snakes and hypothesize that, given the ecological opportunity presented by colonization of the West Indies, alsophiines should show the signature of an early burst of diversification and associated low within‐clade ecological and morphological disparification. We also test whether changes in morphology and ecology are associated with changes in diversification rate, as trait‐dependent diversification is hypothesized to affect historical inferences of diversification and disparification. Finally, as replicated radiations are found across the West Indies in the anoles, we test for significant differences in ecological and morphological assemblages and rates among the major island groups. Location The West Indies. Methods A time‐calibrated phylogeny produced from six genes using relaxed clock methods in beast was constructed to estimate ancestral areas using Lagrange . Maximum body size and ecological niche were scored for all species in the phylogeny, and comparative phylogenetic methods in R using geiger , laser , ape and our own code were used to examine diversification through time, disparification and trait‐dependent diversification from this dated phylogeny. Results The pattern of species diversification did not differ significantly from the Yule model of diversification. Morphology and ecology fitted a Brownian and white noise model of diversification, respectively. Although not significantly different, morphological disparification was lower than the Brownian null model, whereas ecological disparification was significantly greater than the null. Trait‐dependent diversification analyses suggested that the constant null models provided the best fit to these data. There was no significant signal of rate variation among the major island groups for size, but moderate evidence for niche. Main conclusions Although ecological opportunity was similarly present for alsophiines as it was for anoles, the snakes fail to show an early burst of speciation. Potential reasons for this include the young age of the group, and staggered diversification due to waiting times between island colonization. In turn, ecological and morphological disparities do not necessarily follow predictable patterns related to species diversification. Thus, the presence of ecological opportunity alone is not necessarily sufficient to trigger replicated adaptive radiations in areas.     

Adaptive radiation in labrid fishes: A central role for functional innovations during 65 My of relentless diversification

Early burst patterns of diversification have become closely linked with concepts of adaptive radiation, reflecting interest in the role of ecological opportunity in modulating diversification. But, this model has not been widely explored on coral reefs, where biodiversity is exceptional, but many lineages have high dispersal capabilities and a pan‐tropical distribution. We analyze adaptive radiation in labrid fishes, arguably the most ecologically dominant and diverse radiation of fishes on coral reefs. We test for time‐dependent speciation, trophic diversification, and origination of 15 functional innovations, and early bursts in a series of functional morphological traits associated with feeding and locomotion. We find no evidence of time‐dependent or early burst evolution. Instead, the pace of speciation, ecological diversification, and trait evolution has been relatively constant. The origination of functional innovations has slowed over time, although few arose early. The labrid radiation seems to have occurred in response to extensive and still increasing ecological opportunity, but within a rich community of antagonists that may have prevented abrupt diversification. Labrid diversification is closely tied to a series of substantial functional innovations that individually broadened ecological diversity, ultimately allowing them to invade virtually every trophic niche held by fishes on coral reefs.     

Diet‐MEF2 interactions shape lipid droplet diversification in muscle to influence Drosophila lifespan

The number, size, and composition of lipid droplets can be influenced by dietary changes that shift energy substrate availability. This diversification of lipid droplets can promote metabolic flexibility and shape cellular stress responses in unique tissues with distinctive metabolic roles. Using Drosophila, we uncovered a role for myocyte enhancer factor 2 (MEF2) in modulating diet‐dependent lipid droplet diversification within adult striated muscle, impacting mortality rates. Muscle‐specific attenuation of MEF2, whose chronic activation maintains glucose and mitochondrial homeostasis, leads to the accumulation of large, cholesterol ester‐enriched intramuscular lipid droplets in response to high calorie, carbohydrate‐sufficient diets. The diet‐dependent accumulation of these lipid droplets also correlates with both enhanced stress protection in muscle and increases in organismal lifespan. Furthermore, MEF2 attenuation releases an antagonistic regulation of cell cycle gene expression programs, and up‐regulation of Cyclin E is required for diet‐ and MEF2‐dependent diversification of intramuscular lipid droplets. The integration of MEF2‐regulated gene expression networks with dietary responses thus plays a critical role in shaping muscle metabolism and function, further influencing organismal lifespan. Together, these results highlight a potential protective role for intramuscular lipid droplets during dietary adaptation.     

DO FRESHWATER FISHES DIVERSIFY FASTER THAN MARINE FISHES? A TEST USING STATE‐DEPENDENT DIVERSIFICATION ANALYSES AND MOLECULAR PHYLOGENETICS OF NEW WORLD SILVERSIDES (ATHERINOPSIDAE)

Freshwater habitats make up only ～0.01% of available aquatic habitat and yet harbor 40% of all fish species, whereas marine habitats comprise >99% of available aquatic habitat and have only 60% of fish species. One possible explanation for this pattern is that diversification rates are higher in freshwater habitats than in marine habitats. We investigated diversification in marine and freshwater lineages in the New World silverside fish clade Menidiinae (Teleostei, Atherinopsidae). Using a time‐calibrated phylogeny and a state‐dependent speciation–extinction framework, we determined the frequency and timing of habitat transitions in Menidiinae and tested for differences in diversification parameters between marine and freshwater lineages. We found that Menidiinae is an ancestrally marine lineage that independently colonized freshwater habitats four times followed by three reversals to the marine environment. Our state‐dependent diversification analyses showed that freshwater lineages have higher speciation and extinction rates than marine lineages. Net diversification rates were higher (but not significant) in freshwater than marine environments. The marine lineage‐through time (LTT) plot shows constant accumulation, suggesting that ecological limits to clade growth have not slowed diversification in marine lineages. Freshwater lineages exhibited an upturn near the recent in their LTT plot, which is consistent with our estimates of high background extinction rates. All sequence data are currently being archived on Genbank and phylogenetic trees archived on Treebase.     

The formation of species pools: historical habitat abundance affects current local diversity

Aim Explanations of biogeographic diversity patterns have emphasized the role of large‐scale processes that determine species pools, whereas explanations of local patterns have not. We address the hypothesis that local diversity patterns are also primarily dependent on the size of the available species pools, which are expected to be large when the particular habitat type has been evolutionary more abundant, or in unproductive habitats due to shorter generation time and hence higher diversification rates. Location The Canary Islands. Methods We determined the geographic distribution and habitat requirements of all native vascular plant species in the Canary Islands. Species pools for each habitat type on particular islands were further split into two categories according to origin: either originating due to local diversification or due to natural immigration. The dependence of historical diversification and diversification rate on habitat type, area, age, altitude and distance to the mainland was tested with general linear mixed models weighed according to the Akaike information criterion. Results The largest portion of the local variation in plant species diversity was attributed to the historic (pre‐human) habitat area, although island age was also important. The diversification rate was higher in unproductive habitats of coastal scrub and summit vegetation. Main conclusion Our study supports the species pool hypothesis, demonstrating that natural local patterns of species diversity in different habitats mirror the abundance of those particular habitats in evolutionary history. It also supports the community‐level birth rate hypothesis, claiming that stressful conditions result in higher diversification rates. We conclude that much of the observed local variation in plant diversity can be attributed to the differing sizes of species pools evolved under particular habitat conditions, and that historic parameters are far more important determinants of local diversity than suggested by ecological theory.     

SYNDROME‐DRIVEN DIVERSIFICATION IN A MEDITERRANEAN ECOSYSTEM

Phylogenetic methods to detect lineage diversification have been traditionally used within a particular taxonomic clade, but rarely applied to detect local diversification. For understanding in situ diversification triggered by novel conditions it is necessary to focus on the time slice where such conditions occur. These new conditions may differentially affect the diversification rate of lineages with different morpho‐functional syndromes. A prominent example of these processes occurs in the Mediterranean Basin, where climate arising along the Tertiary/Quaternary transition acted as an environmental filter. In this context, lineages with different syndromes (sclerophyllous and nonsclerophyllous) are hypothesized to have different local diversification rates after the rise of the Mediterranean conditions. We used macroevolutionary methods of time‐dependent diversification on a calibrated local phylogeny accommodating topological and chronological uncertainty to test syndrome‐driven diversification in Mediterranean shrublands from the eastern Iberian Peninsula. We found phylogenetic evidence of higher speciation associated with the nonsclerophyllous syndrome, although extinction rates were similar between syndromes. Consequently a syndrome‐driven local diversification has occurred in shrublands under Mediterranean conditions. The results provide an example of how the integration of the environmental filter in a dated phylogeny may recreate the local history of lineages and help to explain assembly processes in Mediterranean ecosystems.     

High speciation rate at temperate latitudes explains unusual diversity gradients in a clade of ectomycorrhizal fungi

Understanding the patterns of biodiversity through time and space is a challenging task. However, phylogeny‐based macroevolutionary models allow us to account and measure many of the processes responsible for diversity buildup, namely speciation and extinction. The general latitudinal diversity gradient (LDG) is a well‐recognized pattern describing a decline in species richness from the equator polewards. Recent macroecological studies in ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi have shown that their LDG is shifted, peaking at temperate rather than tropical latitudes. Here we investigate this phenomenon from a macroevolutionary perspective, focusing on a well‐sampled group of edible EM mushrooms from the genus Amanita—the Caesar's mushrooms, which follow similar diversity patterns. Our approach consisted in applying a suite of models including (1) nontrait‐dependent time‐varying diversification (Bayesian analysis of macroevolutionary mixtures [BAMM]), (2) continuous trait‐dependent diversification (quantitative‐state speciation and extinction [QuaSSE]), and (3) diversity‐dependent diversification. In short, results give strong support for high speciation rates at temperate latitudes (BAMM and QuaSSE). We also find some evidence for different diversity‐dependence thresholds in “temperate” and “tropical” subclades, and little differences in diversity due to extinction. We conclude that our analyses on the Caesar's mushrooms give further evidence of a temperate‐peaking LDG in EM fungi, highlighting the importance and the implications of macroevolutionary processes in explaining diversity gradients in microorganisms.     

Into the Andes: multiple independent colonizations drive montane diversity in the Neotropical clearwing butterflies Godyridina

Understanding why species richness peaks along the Andes is a fundamental question in the study of Neotropical biodiversity. Several biogeographic and diversification scenarios have been proposed in the literature, but there is confusion about the processes underlying each scenario, and assessing their relative contribution is not straightforward. Here, we propose to refine these scenarios into a framework which evaluates four evolutionary mechanisms: higher speciation rate in the Andes, lower extinction rates in the Andes, older colonization times and higher colonization rates of the Andes from adjacent areas. We apply this framework to a species‐rich subtribe of Neotropical butterflies whose diversity peaks in the Andes, the Godyridina (Nymphalidae: Ithomiini). We generated a time‐calibrated phylogeny of the Godyridina and fitted time‐dependent diversification models. Using trait‐dependent diversification models and ancestral state reconstruction methods we then compared different biogeographic scenarios. We found strong evidence that the rates of colonization into the Andes were higher than the other way round. Those colonizations and the subsequent local diversification at equal rates in the Andes and in non‐Andean regions mechanically increased the species richness of Andean regions compared to that of non‐Andean regions (‘species‐attractor’ hypothesis). We also found support for increasing speciation rates associated with Andean lineages. Our work highlights the importance of the Andean slopes in repeatedly attracting non‐Andean lineages, most likely as a result of the diversity of habitats and/or host plants. Applying this analytical framework to other clades will bring important insights into the evolutionary mechanisms underlying the most species‐rich biodiversity hotspot on the planet.     

Larger brains spur species diversification in birds

Evidence is accumulating that species traits can spur their evolutionary diversification by influencing niche shifts, range expansions, and extinction risk. Previous work has shown that larger brains (relative to body size) facilitate niche shifts and range expansions by enhancing behavioral plasticity but whether larger brains also promote evolutionary diversification is currently backed by insufficient evidence. We addressed this gap by combining a brain size dataset for >1900 avian species worldwide with estimates of diversification rates based on two conceptually different phylogenetic‐based approaches. We found consistent evidence that lineages with larger brains (relative to body size) have diversified faster than lineages with relatively smaller brains. The best supported trait‐dependent model suggests that brain size primarily affects diversification rates by increasing speciation rather than decreasing extinction rates. In addition, we found that the effect of relatively brain size on species‐level diversification rate is additive to the effect of other intrinsic and extrinsic factors. Altogether, our results highlight the importance of brain size as an important factor in evolution and reinforce the view that intrinsic features of species have the potential to influence the pace of evolution.     

Ecological constraints from incumbent clades drive trait evolution across the tree‐of‐life of freshwater macroinvertebrates

The rates of species and trait diversification vary across the Tree‐of‐Life and over time. Whereas species richness and clade age generally are decoupled, the correlation of accumulated trait diversity of clades (trait disparity) with clade age remains poorly explored. Total trait disparity may be coupled with clade age if the growth of disparity (disparification) within and across clades is continuous with time in an additive niche expansion process (linear‐cumulative model), or alternatively if the rate of trait disparification varies over time and decreases as ecological space becomes gradually saturated (disparity‐dependent model). Using a clock‐calibrated phylogenetic tree for 143 freshwater macroinvertebrate families and richness and trait databases covering > 6400 species, we measured trait disparity in 18 independent clades that successively transitioned to freshwater ecosystems and analyzed its relation with clade age. We found a positive correlation between clade age and total disparity within clades, but no relationship for most individual traits. Traits unique to freshwater lifestyle were highly variable within older clades, while disparity in younger clades shifted towards partially terrestrial lifestyles and saline tolerance to occupy habitats previously inaccessible or underutilized. These results argue that constraints from incumbent lineages limit trait disparity in younger clades that evolved for filling unoccupied regions of the trait space, which suggests that trait disparification may follow a disparity‐dependent model. Overall, we provide an empirical pattern that reveals the potential of the disparity‐dependent model for understanding fundamental processes shaping trait dynamics across the Tree‐of‐Life.     

Diatoms diversify and turn over faster in freshwater than marine environments*

Many clades that span the marine–freshwater boundary are disproportionately more diverse in the younger, shorter lived, and scarcer freshwater environments than they are in the marine realm. This disparity is thought to be related to differences in diversification rates between marine and freshwater lineages. However, marine and freshwaters are not ecologically homogeneous, so the study of diversification across the salinity divide should also account for other potentially interacting variables. In diatoms, freshwater and substrate‐associated (benthic) lineages are several‐fold more diverse than their marine and suspended (planktonic) counterparts. These imbalances provide an excellent system to understand whether these variables interact with diversification. Using multistate hidden‐state speciation and extinction models, we found that freshwater lineages diversify faster than marine lineages regardless of whether they inhabit the plankton or the benthos. Freshwater lineages also had higher turnover rates (speciation + extinction), suggesting that habitat transitions impact speciation and extinction rates jointly. The plankton–benthos contrast was also consistent with state‐dependent diversification, but with modest differences in diversification and turnover rates. Asymmetric and bidirectional transitions rejected hypotheses about the plankton and freshwaters as absorbing, inescapable habitats. Our results further suggest that the high turnover rate of freshwater diatoms is related to high turnover of freshwater systems themselves.     

Branching patterns in phylogenies cannot distinguish diversity‐dependent diversification from time‐dependent diversification

One of the primary goals of macroevolutionary biology has been to explain general trends in long‐term diversity patterns, including whether such patterns correspond to an upscaling of processes occurring at lower scales. Reconstructed phylogenies often show decelerated lineage accumulation over time. This pattern has often been interpreted as the result of diversity‐dependent (DD) diversification, where the accumulation of species causes diversification to decrease through niche filling. However, other processes can also produce such a slowdown, including time dependence without diversity dependence. To test whether phylogenetic branching patterns can be used to distinguish these two mechanisms, we formulated a time‐dependent, but diversity‐independent model that matches the expected diversity through time of a DD model. We simulated phylogenies under each model and studied how well likelihood methods could recover the true diversification mode. Standard model selection criteria always recovered diversity dependence, even when it was not present. We correct for this bias by using a bootstrap method and find that neither model is decisively supported. This implies that the branching pattern of reconstructed trees contains insufficient information to detect the presence or absence of diversity dependence. We advocate that tests encompassing additional data, for example, traits or range distributions, are needed to evaluate how diversity drives macroevolutionary trends.     

Response to technical comment ‘A cautionary note for users of linear diversification dependencies’

The comment by Gamisch (2020) draws the attention of users of the R‐package RPANDA (Methods Ecol. Evol., 7, 2016, 589) on situations when properly interpreting the results of linear diversification dependencies requires caution. Here we provide clarifications to help users interpreting their results when using any type of functional diversification dependencies with time or the environment.     

SIZE‐DEPENDENT MORTALITY AND COMPETITION INTERACTIVELY SHAPE COMMUNITY DIVERSITY

Body size is recognized as a major factor in evolutionary processes mediating sympatric diversification and community structuring. Life‐history types with distinct body sizes can result from two fundamental mechanisms, size‐dependent competition and size‐dependent mortality. While previous theoretical studies investigated these two processes in separation, the model analyzed here allows both selective forces to affect body‐size evolution interactively. Here we show for the first time that in the presence of size‐dependent competition, size‐dependent mortality can give rise to multiple, coexisting size morphs representing the final outcomes of evolution. Moreover, our results demonstrate that interactions between size‐dependent competition and mortality can create characteristic abrupt changes in size structure and nonmonotonic patterns of biological diversity along continuous and monotonic environmental gradients. We find that the two selective forces differentially affect the body‐size ratios of coexisting morphs: size‐dependent competition results in small and relatively constant ratios, whereas size‐dependent mortality can open niches for morphs that greatly differ in body size. We show that these differential effects result in characteristic distributions of size ratios across communities, which we suggest can help detect the concurrent action and relative influence of size‐dependent competition and mortality in nature.     

Trait-dependent diversification and the impact of palaeontological data on evolutionary hypothesis testing in New World ratsnakes (tribe Lampropeltini)

For studies investigating trait evolution, there are at least two important questions. First, have traits under consideration influenced cladogenesis and extinction in the group? Second, how do fossil data alter inferences about trait evolution or diversification‐rate dynamics? However, relatively few studies have assessed these questions. Here, we use recently developed methods to test for trait‐dependent diversification in the New World colubrid snake tribe Lampropeltini. We also integrate data from fossil taxa into phylogenetic estimation of evolutionary parameters using a simple Monte Carlo randomization test. These analyses suggest that ecological conditions in temperate regions are tied to higher rates of cladogenesis, but that body size is not related to diversification in the group. We also find that the inclusion of fossil taxa alters absolute estimates of size and the rate of size evolution, but not the overall pattern of ecomorphological diversification, as well as estimates of evolutionary rates, particularly extinction.