Adaptive and plastic responses of Quercus petraea populations to climate across Europe

How temperate forests will respond to climate change is uncertain; projections range from severe decline to increased growth. We conducted field tests of sessile oak (Quercus petraea), a widespread keystone European forest tree species, including more than 150 000 trees sourced from 116 geographically diverse populations. The tests were planted on 23 field sites in six European countries, in order to expose them to a wide range of climates, including sites reflecting future warmer and drier climates. By assessing tree height and survival, our objectives were twofold: (i) to identify the source of differential population responses to climate (genetic differentiation due to past divergent climatic selection vs. plastic responses to ongoing climate change) and (ii) to explore which climatic variables (temperature or precipitation) trigger the population responses. Tree growth and survival were modeled for contemporary climate and then projected using data from four regional climate models for years 2071–2100, using two greenhouse gas concentration trajectory scenarios each. Overall, results indicated a moderate response of tree height and survival to climate variation, with changes in dryness (either annual or during the growing season) explaining the major part of the response. While, on average, populations exhibited local adaptation, there was significant clinal population differentiation for height growth with winter temperature at the site of origin. The most moderate climate model (HIRHAM5‐EC; rcp4.5) predicted minor decreases in height and survival, while the most extreme model (CCLM4‐GEM2‐ES; rcp8.5) predicted large decreases in survival and growth for southern and southeastern edge populations (Hungary and Turkey). Other nonmarginal populations with continental climates were predicted to be severely and negatively affected (Bercé, France), while populations at the contemporary northern limit (colder and humid maritime regions; Denmark and Norway) will probably not show large changes in growth and survival in response to climate change.     

Ecological genetics of Juglans nigra: Differences in early growth patterns of natural populations

Many boreal and temperate forest tree species distributed across large geographic ranges are composed of populations adapted to the climate they inhabit. Forestry provenance studies and common gardens provide evidence of local adaptation to climate when associations between fitness traits and the populations'' home climates are observed. Most studies that evaluate tree height as a fitness trait do so at a specific point in time. In this study, we elucidate differences in early growth patterns in black walnut (Juglans nigra L.) populations by modeling height growth from seed up to age 11. The data comprise tree height measurements between ages 2 and 11 for 52 natural populations of black walnut collected through its geographic range and planted in one or more of 3 common gardens. We use the Chapman–Richards growth model in a mixed effects framework and test whether populations differ in growth patterns by incorporating populations'' home climate into the model. In addition, we evaluate differences in populations'' absolute growth and relative growth based on the fitted model. Models indicated that populations from warmer climates had the highest cumulative growth through time, with differences in average tree height between populations from home climates with a mean annual temperature (MAT) of 13°C and of 7°C estimated to be as high as 80% at age 3. Populations from warmer climates were also estimated to have higher and earlier maximum absolute growth rate than populations from colder climates. In addition, populations from warm climates were predicted to have higher relative growth rates at any given tree size. Results indicate that natural selection may shape early growth patterns of populations within a tree species, suggesting that fast early growth rates are likely selected for in relatively mild environments where competition rather than tolerance to environmental stressors becomes the dominant selection pressure.     

Dual impacts of climate change: forest migration and turnover through life history

Tree species are predicted to track future climate by shifting their geographic distributions, but climate‐mediated migrations are not apparent in a recent continental‐scale analysis. To better understand the mechanisms of a possible migration lag, we analyzed relative recruitment patterns by comparing juvenile and adult tree abundances in climate space. One would expect relative recruitment to be higher in cold and dry climates as a result of tree migration with juveniles located further poleward than adults. Alternatively, relative recruitment could be higher in warm and wet climates as a result of higher tree population turnover with increased temperature and precipitation. Using the USDA Forest Service's Forest Inventory and Analysis data at regional scales, we jointly modeled juvenile and adult abundance distributions for 65 tree species in climate space of the eastern United States. We directly compared the optimal climate conditions for juveniles and adults, identified the climates where each species has high relative recruitment, and synthesized relative recruitment patterns across species. Results suggest that for 77% and 83% of the tree species, juveniles have higher optimal temperature and optimal precipitation, respectively, than adults. Across species, the relative recruitment pattern is dominated by relatively more abundant juveniles than adults in warm and wet climates. These different abundance‐climate responses through life history are consistent with faster population turnover and inconsistent with the geographic trend of large‐scale tree migration. Taken together, this juvenile–adult analysis suggests that tree species might respond to climate change by having faster turnover as dynamics accelerate with longer growing seasons and higher temperatures, before there is evidence of poleward migration at biogeographic scales.     

Losing your edge: climate change and the conservation value of range‐edge populations

Populations occurring at species' range edges can be locally adapted to unique environmental conditions. From a species' perspective, range‐edge environments generally have higher severity and frequency of extreme climatic events relative to the range core. Under future climates, extreme climatic events are predicted to become increasingly important in defining species' distributions. Therefore, range‐edge genotypes that are better adapted to extreme climates relative to core populations may be essential to species' persistence during periods of rapid climate change. We use relatively simple conceptual models to highlight the importance of locally adapted range‐edge populations (leading and trailing edges) for determining the ability of species to persist under future climates. Using trees as an example, we show how locally adapted populations at species' range edges may expand under future climate change and become more common relative to range‐core populations. We also highlight how large‐scale habitat destruction occurring in some geographic areas where many species range edge converge, such as biome boundaries and ecotones (e.g., the arc of deforestation along the rainforest‐cerrado ecotone in the southern Amazonia), can have major implications for global biodiversity. As climate changes, range‐edge populations will play key roles in helping species to maintain or expand their geographic distributions. The loss of these locally adapted range‐edge populations through anthropogenic disturbance is therefore hypothesized to reduce the ability of species to persist in the face of rapid future climate change.     

A bridge too far: cold and pathogen constraints to assisted migration of riparian forests

Assisted migration of warm‐adapted genotypes to currently cooler climates may reduce maladaptation from future climate change. Few assisted migration trials have considered limitations of the cooler climates and pathogens currently present at transplant sites. This is especially important to consider in riparian ecosystems that are priority targets for restoration in the western United States as they harbor diverse communities. In an effort to validate assisted migration as an effective strategy for mediating the negative impacts of climate change, we used a provenance trial with replicated genotypes from 19 populations of the foundation riparian tree species, Fremont cottonwood (Populus fremontii), transplanted to a cold site to test for genetic variation in growth, mortality, and resistance to shoot blight fungi (Venturia sp.). Populations from cool sites had up to 4 times faster growth, 3 times higher survival, and 8 times higher resistance to Venturia than populations from warm sites, providing evidence of local adaptation to both climate and pathogenic fungi. Budburst phenology and shoot blight were correlated with frost damage, subsequent shrub‐form architecture, and mortality. While climate change models predict 6°C increases, plants transferred distances of 6°C at this time would not perform well; an intermediate transfer distance of less than 3°C would avoid maladaptation to the current environment during assisted migration. Thus, multiple and intermediate transfer phases to supplement local genetic variation will likely be necessary for effective assisted migration to accommodate current environments and large changes in climate.     

Temperature-based population segregation in birch

Mean temperature of establishment years for warm‐ and cold‐year subpopulations of a naturally occurring stand of Betula pendula (birch) shows a difference equivalent to that between current temperatures and temperatures projected for 35–55 years hence, given ‘business as usual.’ The existence of ‘pre‐adapted’ individuals in standing tree populations would reduce temperature‐based advantages for invading species and, if general, bring into question assumptions currently used in models of global climate change. Our results demonstrate a methodology useful for investigating the important ecological issue of adaptation vs. range shifts as a means of response to climate change.     

The thermal mismatch hypothesis explains host susceptibility to an emerging infectious disease

Parasites typically have broader thermal limits than hosts, so large performance gaps between pathogens and their cold‐ and warm‐adapted hosts should occur at relatively warm and cold temperatures, respectively. We tested this thermal mismatch hypothesis by quantifying the temperature‐dependent susceptibility of cold‐ and warm‐adapted amphibian species to the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) using laboratory experiments and field prevalence estimates from 15 410 individuals in 598 populations. In both the laboratory and field, we found that the greatest susceptibility of cold‐ and warm‐adapted hosts occurred at relatively warm and cool temperatures, respectively, providing support for the thermal mismatch hypothesis. Our results suggest that as climate change shifts hosts away from their optimal temperatures, the probability of increased host susceptibility to infectious disease might increase, but the effect will depend on the host species and the direction of the climate shift. Our findings help explain the tremendous variation in species responses to Bd across climates and spatial, temporal and species‐level variation in disease outbreaks associated with extreme weather events that are becoming more common with climate change.     

Thermal affinity as the dominant factor changing Mediterranean fish abundances

Recent decades have seen profound changes in species abundance and community composition. In the marine environment, the major anthropogenic drivers of change comprise exploitation, invasion by nonindigenous species, and climate change. However, the magnitude of these stressors has been widely debated and we lack empirical estimates of their relative importance. In this study, we focused on Eastern Mediterranean, a region exposed to an invasion of species of Red Sea origin, extreme climate change, and high fishing pressure. We estimated changes in fish abundance using two fish trawl surveys spanning a 20‐year period, and correlated these changes with estimated sensitivity of species to the different stressors. We estimated sensitivity to invasion using the trait similarity between indigenous and nonindigenous species; sensitivity to fishing using a published composite index based on the species’ life‐history; and sensitivity to climate change using species climatic affinity based on occurrence data. Using both a meta‐analytical method and random forest analysis, we found that for shallow‐water species the most important driver of population size changes is sensitivity to climate change. Species with an affinity to warm climates increased in relative abundance and species with an affinity to cold climates decreased suggesting a strong response to warming local sea temperatures over recent decades. This decrease in the abundance of cold‐water‐associated species at the trailing “warm” end of their distribution has been rarely documented. Despite the immense biomass of nonindigenous species and the presumed high fishing pressure, these two latter factors seem to have only a minor role in explaining abundance changes. The decline in abundance of indigenous species of cold‐water origin indicates a future major restructuring of fish communities in the Mediterranean in response to the ongoing warming, with unknown impacts on ecosystem function.     

CHILL-COMA TOLERANCE, A MAJOR CLIMATIC ADAPTATION AMONG DROSOPHILA SPECIES

Abstract.— Most drosophilid species can be classified either as temperate or tropical. Adults of species were submitted to a cold treatment (0°C) and then brought back to ambient temperature. They generally exhibited a chill coma and the time needed to recover was measured. We found in a set of 26 temperate species that recovery was rapid (average 1.8 min, range 0.15–4.9). In contrast, a long recovery time (average 56 min, range 24–120) was observed for 48 tropical species. A few species, like Drosophila melanogaster, are cosmopolitan and can proliferate under temperate and tropical climates. In 9 of 10 such species, slight genetic differences were found: a shorter recovery in temperate than in tropical populations. Comparing physiological data to phylogeny suggests that chill‐coma tolerance has been a recurrent adaptation that is selected for in cold climates but tends to disappear under a permanently warm environment. This major climatic adaptation, evidenced in drosophilids, seems to occur in other insect groups also.     

Genotypic variation in phenological plasticity: Reciprocal common gardens reveal adaptive responses to warmer springs but not to fall frost

Species faced with rapidly shifting environments must be able to move, adapt, or acclimate in order to survive. One mechanism to meet this challenge is phenotypic plasticity: altering phenotype in response to environmental change. Here, we investigated the magnitude, direction, and consequences of changes in two key phenology traits (fall bud set and spring bud flush) in a widespread riparian tree species, Populus fremontii. Using replicated genotypes from 16 populations from throughout the species’ thermal range, and reciprocal common gardens at hot, warm, and cool sites, we identified four major findings: (a) There are significant genetic (G), environmental (E), and GxE components of variation for both traits across three common gardens; (b) The magnitude of phenotypic plasticity is correlated with provenance climate, where trees from hotter, southern populations exhibited up to four times greater plasticity compared to the northern, frost‐adapted populations; (c) Phenological mismatches are correlated with higher mortality as the transfer distances between provenance and garden increase; and (d) The relationship between plasticity and survival depends not only on the magnitude and direction of environmental transfer, but also on the type of environmental stress (i.e., heat or freezing), and how particular traits have evolved in response to that stress. Trees transferred to warmer climates generally showed small to moderate shifts in an adaptive direction, a hopeful result for climate change. Trees experiencing cooler climates exhibited large, non‐adaptive changes, suggesting smaller transfer distances for assisted migration. This study is especially important as it deconstructs trait responses to environmental cues that are rapidly changing (e.g., temperature and spring onset) and those that are fixed (photoperiod), and that vary across the species’ range. Understanding the magnitude and adaptive nature of phenotypic plasticity of multiple traits responding to multiple environmental cues is key to guiding restoration management decisions as climate continues to change.     

Patterns of persistence and isolation indicate resilience to climate change in montane rainforest lizards

Globally, montane tropical diversity is characterized by extraordinary local endemism that is not readily explained by current environmental variables indicating a strong imprint of history. Montane species often exist as isolated populations under current climatic conditions and may have remained isolated throughout recent climatic cycles, leading to substantial genetic and phenotypic divergence. Alternatively, populations may have become contiguous during colder climates resulting in less divergence. Here we compare responses to historical climate fluctuation in a montane specialist skink, Lampropholis robertsi, and its more broadly distributed congener, L. coggeri, both endemic to rainforests of northeast Australia. To do so, we combine spatial modelling of potential distributions under representative palaeoclimates, multi‐locus phylogeography and analyses of phenotypic variation. Spatial modelling of L. robertsi predicts strong isolation among disjunct montane refugia during warm climates, but with potential for localized exchange during the most recent glacial period. In contrast, predicted stable areas are more widespread and connected in L. coggeri. Both species exhibit pronounced phylogeographic structuring for mitochondrial and nuclear genes, attesting to low dispersal and high persistence across multiple isolated regions. This is most prominent in L. robertsi, for which coalescent analyses indicate that most populations persisted in isolation throughout the climate cycles of the Pleistocene. Morphological divergence, principally in body size, is more evident among isolated populations of L. robertsi than L. coggeri. These results highlight the biodiversity value of isolated montane populations and support the general hypothesis that tropical montane regions harbour high levels of narrow‐range taxa because of their resilience to past climate change.     

Forest tree species adaptation to climate across biomes: Building on the legacy of ecological genetics to anticipate responses to climate change

Intraspecific variation plays a critical role in extant and future forest responses to climate change. Forest tree species with wide climatic niches rely on the intraspecific variation resulting from genetic adaptation and phenotypic plasticity to accommodate spatial and temporal climate variability. A centuries-old legacy of forest ecological genetics and provenance trials has provided a strong foundation upon which to continue building on this knowledge, which is critical to maintain climate-adapted forests. Our overall objective is to understand forest trees intraspecific responses to climate across species and biomes, while our specific objectives are to describe ecological genetics models used to build our foundational knowledge, summarize modeling approaches that have expanded the traditional toolset, and extensively review the literature from 1994 to 2021 to highlight the main contributions of this legacy and the new analyzes of provenance trials. We reviewed 103 studies comprising at least three common gardens, which covered 58 forest tree species, 28 of them with range-wide studies. Although studies using provenance trial data cover mostly commercially important forest tree species from temperate and boreal biomes, this synthesis provides a global overview of forest tree species adaptation to climate. We found that evidence for genetic adaptation to local climate is commonly present in the species studied (79%), being more common in conifers (87.5%) than in broadleaf species (67%). In 57% of the species, clines in fitness-related traits were associated with temperature variables, in 14% of the species with precipitation, and in 25% of the species with both. Evidence of adaptation lags was found in 50% of the species with range-wide studies. We conclude that ecological genetics models and analysis of provenance trial data provide excellent insights on intraspecific genetic variation, whereas the role and limits of phenotypic plasticity, which will likely determine the fate of extant forests, is vastly understudied.     

Fitness declines towards range limits and local adaptation to climate affect dispersal evolution during climate‐induced range shifts

Dispersal ability will largely determine whether species track their climatic niches during climate change, a process especially important for populations at contracting (low‐latitude/low‐elevation) range limits that otherwise risk extinction. We investigate whether dispersal evolution at contracting range limits is facilitated by two processes that potentially enable edge populations to experience and adjust to the effects of climate deterioration before they cause extinction: (i) climate‐induced fitness declines towards range limits and (ii) local adaptation to a shifting climate gradient. We simulate a species distributed continuously along a temperature gradient using a spatially explicit, individual‐based model. We compare range‐wide dispersal evolution during climate stability vs. directional climate change, with uniform fitness vs. fitness that declines towards range limits (RLs), and for a single climate genotype vs. multiple genotypes locally adapted to temperature. During climate stability, dispersal decreased towards RLs when fitness was uniform, but increased when fitness declined towards RLs, due to highly dispersive genotypes maintaining sink populations at RLs, increased kin selection in smaller populations, and an emergent fitness asymmetry that favoured dispersal in low‐quality habitat. However, this initial dispersal advantage at low‐fitness RLs did not facilitate climate tracking, as it was outweighed by an increased probability of extinction. Locally adapted genotypes benefited from staying close to their climate optima; this selected against dispersal under stable climates but for increased dispersal throughout shifting ranges, compared to cases without local adaptation. Dispersal increased at expanding RLs in most scenarios, but only increased at the range centre and contracting RLs given local adaptation to climate.     

Intra‐specific variability and plasticity influence potential tree species distributions under climate change

Aim To assess the effect of local adaptation and phenotypic plasticity on the potential distribution of species under future climate changes. Trees may be adapted to specific climatic conditions; however, species range predictions have classically been assessed by species distribution models (SDMs) that do not account for intra‐specific genetic variability and phenotypic plasticity, because SDMs rely on the assumption that species respond homogeneously to climate change across their range, i.e. a species is equally adapted throughout its range, and all species are equally plastic. These assumptions could cause SDMs to exaggerate or underestimate species at risk under future climate change. Location The Iberian Peninsula. Methods Species distributions are predicted by integrating experimental data and modelling techniques. We incorporate plasticity and local adaptation into a SDM by calibrating models of tree survivorship with adaptive traits in provenance trials. Phenotypic plasticity was incorporated by calibrating our model with a climatic index that provides a measure of the differences between sites and provenances. Results We present a new modelling approach that is easy to implement and makes use of existing tree provenance trials to predict species distribution models under global warming. Our results indicate that the incorporation of intra‐population genetic diversity and phenotypic plasticity in SDMs significantly altered their outcome. In comparing species range predictions, the decrease in area occupancy under global warming conditions is smaller when considering our survival–adaptation model than that predicted by a ‘classical SDM’ calibrated with presence–absence data. These differences in survivorship are due to both local adaptation and plasticity. Differences due to the use of experimental data in the model calibration are also expressed in our results: we incorporate a null model that uses survival data from all provenances together. This model always predicts less reduction in area occupancy for both species than the SDM calibrated with presence–absence. Main conclusions We reaffirm the importance of considering adaptive traits when predicting species distributions and avoiding the use of occurrence data as a predictive variable. In light of these recommendations, we advise that existing predictions of future species distributions and their component populations must be reconsidered.     

Plasticity in functional traits in the context of climate change: a case study of the subalpine forb Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae)

Environmental variation often induces shifts in functional traits, yet we know little about whether plasticity will reduce extinction risks under climate change. As climate change proceeds, phenotypic plasticity could enable species with limited dispersal capacity to persist in situ, and migrating populations of other species to establish in new sites at higher elevations or latitudes. Alternatively, climate change could induce maladaptive plasticity, reducing fitness, and potentially stalling adaptation and migration. Here, we quantified plasticity in life history, foliar morphology, and ecophysiology in Boechera stricta (Brassicaceae), a perennial forb native to the Rocky Mountains. In this region, warming winters are reducing snowpack and warming springs are advancing the timing of snow melt. We hypothesized that traits that were historically advantageous in hot and dry, low‐elevation locations will be favored at higher elevation sites due to climate change. To test this hypothesis, we quantified trait variation in natural populations across an elevational gradient. We then estimated plasticity and genetic variation in common gardens at two elevations. Finally, we tested whether climatic manipulations induce plasticity, with the prediction that plants exposed to early snow removal would resemble individuals from lower elevation populations. In natural populations, foliar morphology and ecophysiology varied with elevation in the predicted directions. In the common gardens, trait plasticity was generally concordant with phenotypic clines from the natural populations. Experimental snow removal advanced flowering phenology by 7 days, which is similar in magnitude to flowering time shifts over 2–3 decades of climate change. Therefore, snow manipulations in this system can be used to predict eco‐evolutionary responses to global change. Snow removal also altered foliar morphology, but in unexpected ways. Extensive plasticity could buffer against immediate fitness declines due to changing climates.     

Phenotypic plasticity closely linked to climate at origin and resulting in increased mortality under warming and frost stress in a common grass

Phenotypic plasticity is important for species responses to global change and species coexistence. Phenotypic plasticity differs among species and traits and changes across environments. Here, we investigated phenotypic plasticity of the widespread grass Arrhenatherum elatius in response to winter warming and frost stress by comparing phenotypic plasticity of 11 geographically and environmentally distinct populations of this species to phenotypic plasticity of populations of different species originating from a single environment. The variation in phenotypic plasticity was similar for populations of a single species from different locations compared to populations of functionally and taxonomically diverse species from one environment for the studied traits (leaf biomass production and root integrity after frost) across three indices of phenotypic plasticity (RDPI, PIN, slope of reaction norm). Phenotypic plasticity was not associated with neutral genetic diversity but closely linked to the climate of the populations’ origin. Populations originating from warmer and more variable climates showed higher phenotypic plasticity. This indicates that phenotypic plasticity can itself be considered as a trait subject to local adaptation to climate. Finally, our data emphasize that high phenotypic plasticity is not per se positive for adaptation to climate change, as differences in stress responses are resulting in high phenotypic plasticity as expressed by common plasticity indices, which is likely to be related to increased mortality under stress in more plastic populations.     

Topographic,latitudinal and climatic distribution of Pinus coulteri: geographic range limits are not at the edge of the climate envelope

With changing climate, many species are projected to move poleward or to higher elevations to track suitable climates. The prediction that species will move poleward assumes that geographically marginal populations are at the edge of the species' climatic range. We studied Pinus coulteri from the center to the northern (poleward) edge of its range, and examined three scenarios regarding the relationship between the geographic and climatic margins of a species' range. We used herbarium and iNaturalist.org records to identify P. coulteri sites, generated a species distribution model based on temperature, precipitation, climatic water deficit, and actual evapotranspiration, and projected suitability under future climate scenarios. In fourteen populations from the central to northern portions of the range, we conducted field studies and recorded elevation, slope and aspect (to estimate solar insolation) to examine relationships between local and regional distributions. We found that northern populations of P. coulteri do not occupy the cold or wet edge of the species' climatic range; mid‐latitude, high elevation populations occupy the cold margin. Aspect and insolation of P. coulteri populations changed significantly across latitudes and elevations. Unexpectedly, northern, low‐elevation stands occupy north‐facing aspects and receive low insolation, while central, high‐elevation stands grow on more south‐facing aspects that receive higher insolation. Modeled future climate suitability is projected to be highest in the central, high elevation portion of the species range, and in low‐lying coastal regions under some scenarios, with declining suitability in northern areas under most future scenarios. For P. coulteri, the lack of high elevation habitat combined with a major dispersal barrier may limit northward movement in response to a warming climate. Our analyses demonstrate the importance of distinguishing geographically vs. climatically marginal populations, and the importance of quantitative analysis of the realized climate space to understand species range limits.     

Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change

Concerns are rising about the capacity of species to adapt quickly enough to climate change. In long‐lived organisms such as trees, genetic adaptation is slow, and how much phenotypic plasticity can help them cope with climate change remains largely unknown. Here, we assess whether, where and when phenological plasticity is and will be adaptive in three major European tree species. We use a process‐based species distribution model, parameterized with extensive ecological data, and manipulate plasticity to suppress phenological variations due to interannual, geographical and trend climate variability, under current and projected climatic conditions. We show that phenological plasticity is not always adaptive and mostly affects fitness at the margins of the species' distribution and climatic niche. Under current climatic conditions, phenological plasticity constrains the northern range limit of oak and beech and the southern range limit of pine. Under future climatic conditions, phenological plasticity becomes strongly adaptive towards the trailing edges of beech and oak, but severely constrains the range and niche of pine. Our results call for caution when interpreting geographical variation in trait means as adaptive, and strongly point towards species distribution models explicitly taking phenotypic plasticity into account when forecasting species distribution under climate change scenarios.     

Cold range edges of marine fishes track climate change better than warm edges

Species around the world are shifting their ranges in response to climate change. To make robust predictions about climate‐related colonizations and extinctions, it is vital to understand the dynamics of range edges. This study is among the first to examine annual dynamics of cold and warm range edges, as most global change studies average observational data over space or over time. We analyzed annual range edge dynamics of marine fishes—both at the individual species level and pooled into cold‐ and warm‐edge assemblages—in a multi‐decade time‐series of trawl surveys conducted on the Northeast US Shelf during a period of rapid warming. We tested whether cold edges show stronger evidence of climate tracking than warm edges (due to non‐climate processes or time lags at the warm edge; the biogeography hypothesis or extinction debt hypothesis), or whether they tracked temperature change equally (due to the influence of habitat suitability; the ecophysiology hypothesis). In addition to exploring correlations with regional temperature change, we calculated species‐ and assemblage‐specific sea bottom and sea surface temperature isotherms and used them to predict range edge position. Cold edges shifted further and tracked sea surface and bottom temperature isotherms to a greater degree than warm edges. Mixed‐effects models revealed that for a one‐degree latitude shift in isotherm position, cold edges shifted 0.47 degrees of latitude, and warm edges shifted only 0.28 degrees. Our results suggest that cold range edges are tracking climate change better than warm range edges, invalidating the ecophysiology hypothesis. We also found that even among highly mobile marine ectotherms in a global warming hotspot, few species are fully keeping pace with climate.