Assessing community and ecosystem sensitivity to climate change – toward a more comparative approach

Plant communities can vary widely in their sensitivity to changing precipitation regimes, as reported by Byrne et al., Mulhouse et al. and Sternberg et al. in this issue of Journal of Vegetation Science. But to understand why communities differ in their sensitivity, we argue that clearly defined metrics of sensitivity and coordinated research approaches are needed to elucidate mechanisms.     

Reply to response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay by Stirling et al. (2008)

We address the three main issues raised by Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Derocher, A.E., Gough, W.A., Rode, K., in press. Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. Ecol. Complexity]: (1) evidence of the role of climate warming in affecting the western Hudson Bay polar bear population, (2) responses to suggested importance of human–polar bear interactions, and (3) limitations on polar bear adaptation to projected climate change. We assert that our original paper did not provide any “alternative explanations [that] are largely unsupported by the data” or misrepresent the original claims by Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Lunn, N.J., Iacozza, I., 1999. Long-term trends in the population ecology of polar bears in western Hudson Bay in relation to climate change. Arctic 52, 294–306], Derocher et al. [Derocher, A.E., Lunn, N.J., Stirling, I., 2004. Polar bears in a warming climate. Integr. Comp. Biol. 44, 163–176], and other peer-approved papers authored by Stirling and colleagues. In sharp contrast, we show that the conclusion of Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Derocher, A.E., Gough, W.A., Rode, K., in press. Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. Ecol. Complexity] – suggesting warming temperatures (and other related climatic changes) are the predominant determinant of polar bear population status, not only in western Hudson (WH) Bay but also for populations elsewhere in the Arctic – is unsupportable by the current scientific evidence.The commentary by Stirling et al. [Stirling, I., Derocher, A.E., Gough, W.A., Rode, K., in press. Response to Dyck et al. (2007) on polar bears and climate change in western Hudson Bay. Ecol. Complexity] is an example of uni-dimensional, or reductionist thinking, which is not useful when assessing effects of climate change on complex ecosystems. Polar bears of WH are exposed to a multitude of environmental perturbations including human interference and factors (e.g., unknown seal population size, possible competition with polar bears from other populations) such that isolation of any single variable as the certain root cause (i.e., climate change in the form of warming spring air temperatures), without recognizing confounding interactions, is imprudent, unjustified and of questionable scientific utility. Dyck et al. [Dyck, M.G., Soon, W., Baydack, R.K., Legates, D.R., Baliunas, S., Ball, T.F., Hancock, L.O., 2007. Polar bears of western Hudson Bay and climate change: Are warming spring air temperatures the “ultimate” survival control factor? Ecol. Complexity, 4, 73–84. doi:10.1016/j.ecocom.2007.03.002] agree that some polar bear populations may be negatively impacted by future environmental changes; but an oversimplification of the complex ecosystem interactions (of which humans are a part) may not be beneficial in studying external effects on polar bears. Science evolves through questioning and proposing hypotheses that can be critically tested, in the absence of which, as Krebs and Borteaux [Krebs, C.J., Berteaux, D., 2006. Problems and pitfalls in relating climate variability to population dynamics. Clim. Res. 32, 143–149] observe, “we will be little more than storytellers.”     

Snowbeds are more affected than other subalpine–alpine plant communities by climate change in the Swiss Alps

While the upward shift of plant species has been observed on many alpine and nival summits, the reaction of the subalpine and lower alpine plant communities to the current warming and lower snow precipitation has been little investigated so far. To this aim, 63 old, exhaustive plant inventories, distributed along a subalpine–alpine elevation gradient of the Swiss Alps and covering different plant community types (acidic and calcareous grasslands; windy ridges; snowbeds), were revisited after 25–50 years. Old and recent inventories were compared in terms of species diversity with Simpson diversity and Bray–Curtis dissimilarity indices, and in terms of community composition with principal component analysis. Changes in ecological conditions were inferred from the ecological indicator values. The alpha‐diversity increased in every plant community, likely because of the arrival of new species. As observed on mountain summits, the new species led to a homogenization of community compositions. The grasslands were quite stable in terms of species composition, whatever the bedrock type. Indeed, the newly arrived species were part of the typical species pool of the colonized community. In contrast, snowbed communities showed pronounced vegetation changes and a clear shift toward dryer conditions and shorter snow cover, evidenced by their colonization by species from surrounding grasslands. Longer growing seasons allow alpine grassland species, which are taller and hence more competitive, to colonize the snowbeds. This study showed that subalpine–alpine plant communities reacted differently to the ongoing climate changes. Lower snow/rain ratio and longer growing seasons seem to have a higher impact than warming, at least on plant communities dependent on long snow cover. Consequently, they are the most vulnerable to climate change and their persistence in the near future is seriously threatened. Subalpine and alpine grasslands are more stable, and, until now, they do not seem to be affected by a warmer climate.     

气候变化下旱区农业生态系统的可持续性

农业生产是将自然资源不断转化为农产品的过程.简单的说就是将阳光、空气、水和土壤等无机资源转化为可以供人类消费的有机产物.农业生态系统必须对全球气候变化、市场竞争、自然环境的恶化、经济等政策法规和人民的需求等因素做出灵活的应对策略,同时还要保证自然生态系统的稳定性.在发展中国家,有超过20 亿的人口每天收入低于2 美元,他们收入中绝大部分都用于解决温饱.这些人大部分生活在干旱、半干旱地区,并以农业生产作为生活的主要来源.由于这些地区水资源匮乏、土壤贫瘠,粮食安全问题一直是该地区人类生存的关键.中澳两国都把干旱、半干旱地区的农牧业发展作为研究的重点.两国的专家都致力于恢复和维护干旱半干旱地区脆弱的农业生态系统.气候变化正在使农业生态系统可持续发展面临严峻挑战.因此,迫切需要农学,生态学,环境学,社会经济学等多学科的共同发展和融合解决这一问题.     

高寒生态系统脆弱性及其对气候变化和人类活动的响应

了解陆地生态系统的脆弱性和基本机制是适应和减轻全球气候变化影响的决策基础。生态系统的脆弱性可以通过生产力对气候变化的敏感性和适应性进行量化。采用1982-2018年青海省境内基于遥感的现实净初级生产力（NPP_R）和气候驱动的潜在净初级生产力（NPP_C）,量化了高寒生态系统的敏感性（Sensitivity）、适应性（Adaptability）和脆弱性（Vulnerability）。然后探讨了生态系统脆弱性的时空变化,并分别从人类活动和气候变化的影响方面分析了其基本机制。结果表明：（1）基于NPP_R和NPP_C的生态系统脆弱性在空间上呈现出中度脆弱的模式,脆弱性从东南向西北由不脆弱依次递增到极度脆弱等级。（2）耕地的脆弱性较低,基于NPP_R和NPP_C的指数分别为-1.31和-0.93,这是由于其适应水平较高而敏感性较低;森林次之,指数为-1.18（NPP_R）和-1.06（NPP_C）;草原的指数为-0.17（NPP_R）和-0.17（NPP_C）;而荒漠的脆弱性较高,指数为0.77（NPP_R）和0.78（NPP_C）,这是由于其敏感性较高,适应性较低。（3）基于NPP_R的高寒草地的脆弱性有两个温度阈值（-2.2±0.8）℃和（5.5±0.8）℃,一个降水阈值（387±45.6）mm,两个干旱指数阈值为（14.2±20.2）和（78.2±20.2）。而基于NPP_C的脆弱性也发现了同样的阈值,并且数值相似。阈值表明最佳气候条件下,生态系统将具有较高的适应性和较低的敏感性,即较低的脆弱性。但如果气温较低或较高,或者降水较低,生态系统的脆弱性将会更高。（4）人类活动对东部地区生态系统的脆弱性产生了强烈的影响,但就整个青海省的生态系统而言,这些影响在区域平均水平上较小。这项研究表明,在高寒脆弱的生态系统中,气候条件决定了脆弱性在空间上的分布情况,这应该被视为生态保护决策的理论基础。此外,本研究发现的阈值将为生态系统生态学提供一个案例研究,并应在世界各地的脆弱生态系统中广泛探索。     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

High dose refuge strategies and genetically modified crops – reply to Tabashnik et al.

Cultivating non‐toxic conventional crops (refuges) in the proximity to transgenic crops that produce Bacillus thuringienesis (Bt) toxins is widely recommended to delay pest adaptation to these toxins. Using a spatially structured model of resistance evolution, Vacher and co‐workers (Vacher, C., Bourguet, D., Rousset, F., Chevillon, C. & Hochberg, M.E. 2003. J. Evol. Biol. 16 : 378–387.) show that the percentage of refuge fields required for the sustainable control of pests can be reduced through intermediate levels of refuge field aggregation and by lowering the toxin dose produced by Bt plants. Tabashnik, B.E., Gould, F. & Carrière, Y. (2004 J. Evol. Biol doi: 10.1111/j1420–9101.2004.00695.x) call into question the results of Vacher et al. (2003) concerning the effect of toxin dose. They argue that these results arise from invalid assumptions about larval concentration–mortality responses for the insect considered, the cotton pest Heliothis virescens. We show here that the models presented by Vacher et al. (2003) and Tabashnik et al. (2004) both show inaccuracies in their definitions of genotypic fitness. The level of dominance estimated by Tabashnik et al. (2004) from larval mortality rates data is irrelevant to resistance evolution, and the fitness cost of resistance evolution, and the fitness cost of resistance is inaccurately integrated into their framework. Neverthless, the comments of Tabashnik et al. (2004) are very helpful in elucidating the definitions of genotypic fitness used in Vacher et al. (2003) and in pointing out the essential factors in predicting the evolution of insect resistance to Bt transgenic crops, namely, accurate estimations of the fitness cost of resistance, of the dominance level of this cost, and of the variations in the dominance level of the advantage conferred by the resistance with Bt toxin dose.     

Individuals have limitations,not communities — A response to Marrs,Weiher and Lortie et al.

A reply is presented on the comments by Marrs, Weiher, and particularly Lortie et al. on an earlier Forum paper. The main point is that adapted alpine plants are not stressed, which follows, i.a., from their productivity which is equal to that in tropical systems when the length of the growing season is taken into account. Another point is that individual‐based and community‐based considerations should not be confused.     

Towards a more transparent use of the potential natural vegetation concept – an answer to Chiarucci et al.

In this paper, the concerns of Chiarucci et al. ( 2010 ) regarding use of the potential natural vegetation (PNV) concept are addressed, as voiced in the forum section of the Journal of Vegetation Science. First, we rectify some unfounded expectations concerning PNV, including a relationship with prehuman vegetation and phytosociology. Second, we point out issues that pose considerable challenges in PNV and require common agreement. Here, we address the issue of time and disturbance. We propose to use the static PNV concept as a baseline, a null model for landscape assessment and in comparisons. Instead of changing the PNV concept itself, we introduce a new term, potential future natural vegetation (PFV) to cover estimations of potential successional outcomes. Finally, we offer a new view of PNV with which we intend to make the use of PNV estimates more transparent. We formalize the PNV theory into a partial cause‐effect model of vegetation that clearly states which effects on vegetation are factored out during its estimation. Further, we also propose to assess PNV in a probabilistic setting, rather than providing a single estimate for one location. This multiple PNV would reflect our uncertainty about the vegetation entity that could persist at the locality concerned. Such uncertainty arises from the overlap of environmental preferences of different mature vegetation types. Thus reformulated, we argue that the PNV concept has much to offer as a null model, especially in landscape ecology and in site comparisons in space and time.     

Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change – evidence from tree populations

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able to track climate change. Results of 250 years of common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation of populations in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions of population origins. On the basis of the patterns of quantitative variation for 19 adaptation‐related traits studied in 59 tree species (mostly temperate and boreal species from the Northern hemisphere), we found that genetic differentiation between populations and clinal variation along environmental gradients were very common (respectively, 90% and 78% of cases). Thus, responding to climate change will likely require that the quantitative traits of populations again match their environments. We examine what kind of information is needed for evaluating the potential to respond, and what information is already available. We review the genetic models related to selection responses, and what is known currently about the genetic basis of the traits. We address special problems to be found at the range margins, and highlight the need for more modeling to understand specific issues at southern and northern margins. We need new common garden experiments for less known species. For extensively studied species, new experiments are needed outside the current ranges. Improving genomic information will allow better prediction of responses. Competitive and other interactions within species and interactions between species deserve more consideration. Despite the long generation times, the strong background in quantitative genetics and growing genomic resources make forest trees useful species for climate change research. The greatest adaptive response is expected when populations are large, have high genetic variability, selection is strong, and there is ecological opportunity for establishment of better adapted genotypes.     

Response to ‘The European nitrogen cycle: response to Schulze et al,Global Change Biology (2010) 16, pp. 1451–1469’

Winniwarter and colleagues present alternative estimates for several of the nitrogen (N) fluxes provided by Schulze and colleagues. They reason that numeric discrepancies between largely dependent estimates and lack of detail in Schulze's estimates urges caution in interpreting these numbers. In this reply we provide methodological details enhancing the transparency of Schulze's estimates and argue that convergence between land‐ and atmosphere‐based estimates should be reached before individual estimates can be rejected. Only for the nitrous oxide and NO_x fluxes a balance between atmosphere and land‐based estimates has been reached. Convergence between independent estimates has not been reached yet for NO‐, NH₃‐ and N‐deposition estimates. As stated by Schulze and colleagues these N‐fluxes remain potentially biased and therefore come with a large uncertainty, irrespective of the reported precision.