基于暴露度-恢复力-敏感度的城市适应气候变化能力评估与特征分析

城市是人口和社会经济活动最密集的地方,随着城市化进程和气候变化的发展,城市地区面临的气候风险和影响日益凸显。提升城市适应气候变化能力已成为城市应对气候变化挑战最重要的任务和途径。通过梳理和评价我国城市适应气候变化能力及其关键要素,以期为区域适应政策的制定和实施提供科学依据。基于IPCC适应能力评价框架,构建了基于暴露度-敏感度-恢复力的城市适应气候变化能力评估框架,进而筛选了19项指标,将指标划分为适应气候变化能力对应的5个等级,以熵权法赋权重;采用集对分析方法,评估我国286个地级市的适应气候变化能力水平,并分析了主要限制因素。结果显示,我国东部的适应能力整体高于西部地区,适应能力较低的区域主要集中在西北的甘肃陕西部分城市、华中的两湖和江西等城市以及西南的广西云南等城市;城市适应能力的各项限制要素主要表现为,适应能力高主要为暴露度-恢复力-敏感度的(低-高-低)的组合;适应能力低则分别包括暴露度-恢复力-敏感度(高-高-高)、(低-低-低)和(高-低-低)3种组合。提高城市适应气候变化能力,对西部西北的甘肃-陕西等城市,重点在于提升应对气候变化的恢复力,例如建立良好的灾后恢复与应急系统等;对于华中、西南等城市则以提高气候风险的防御能力为主。     

A conceptual framework for urban ecological restoration and rehabilitation

Urban greenspace has gained considerable attention during the last decades because of its relevance to wildlife conservation, human welfare, and climate change adaptation. Biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation worldwide require the formation of new concepts of ecological restoration and rehabilitation aimed at improving ecosystem functions, services, and biodiversity conservation in cities. Although relict sites of natural and semi-natural ecosystems can be found in urban areas, environmental conditions and species composition of most urban ecosystems are highly modified, inducing the development of novel and hybrid ecosystems. A consequence of this ecological novelty is the lack of (semi-) natural reference systems available for defining restoration targets and assessing restoration success in urban areas. This hampers the implementation of ecological restoration in cities. In consideration of these challenges, we present a new conceptual framework that provides guidance and support for urban ecological restoration and rehabilitation by formulating restoration targets for different levels of ecological novelty (i.e., historic, hybrid, and novel ecosystems). To facilitate the restoration and rehabilitation of novel urban ecosystems, we recommend using established species-rich and well-functioning urban ecosystems as reference. Such urban reference systems are likely to be present in many cities. Highlighting their value in comparison to degraded ecosystems can stimulate and guide restoration initiatives. As urban restoration approaches must consider local history and site conditions, as well as citizens’ needs, it may also be advisable to focus the restoration of strongly altered urban ecosystems on selected ecosystem functions, services and/or biodiversity values. Ecosystem restoration and rehabilitation in cities can be either relatively inexpensive or costly, but even expensive measures can pay off when they effectively improve ecosystem services such as climate change mitigation or recreation. Successful re‐shaping and re-thinking of urban greenspace by involving citizens and other stakeholders will help to make our cities more sustainable in the future.     

The extent of shifts in vegetation phenology between rural and urban areas within a human‐dominated region

Urbanization is one of the major environmental challenges facing the world today. One of its particularly pressing effects is alterations to local and regional climate through, for example, the Urban Heat Island. Such changes in conditions are likely to have an impact on the phenology of urban vegetation, which will have knock‐on implications for the role that urban green infrastructure can play in delivering multiple ecosystem services. Here, in a human‐dominated region, we undertake an explicit comparison of vegetation phenology between urban and rural zones. Using satellite‐derived MODIS‐EVI data from the first decade of the 20th century, we extract metrics of vegetation phenology (date of start of growing season, date of end of growing season, and length of season) for Britain's 15 largest cities and their rural surrounds. On average, urban areas experienced a growing season 8.8 days longer than surrounding rural zones. As would be expected, there was a significant decline in growing season length with latitude (by 3.4 and 2.4 days/degree latitude in rural and urban areas respectively). Although there is considerable variability in how phenology in urban and rural areas differs across our study cities, we found no evidence that built urban form influences the start, end, or length of the growing season. However, the difference in the length of the growing season between rural and urban areas was significantly negatively associated with the mean disposable household income for a city. Vegetation in urban areas deliver many ecosystem services such as temperature mitigation, pollution removal, carbon uptake and storage, the provision of amenity value for humans and habitat for biodiversity. Given the rapid pace of urbanization and ongoing climate change, understanding how vegetation phenology will alter in the future is important if we wish to be able to manage urban greenspaces effectively.     

城市生物多样性分布格局研究进展

城市生物多样性分布格局由自然生态环境和城市化过程所决定;其动态和机理与自然生态系统迥然不同.城市生物多样性为城市生态系统提供了诸多生态系统功能和服务,对改善城市环境、维持城市可持续发展有着重要的意义和作用.城市化过程深刻改变了城市的生物多样性分布格局,导致了诸如本地物种多样性降低、外来物种多样性增加、物种同质化等一系列问题.近年来,城市生物多样性受到学界高度关注,大量研究结果既回答了一些关键性问题,又提出了诸多新的论题和挑战.分析了当前城市生物多样性分布格局研究的若干热点问题,总结了影响城市生物多样性格局的主要因素,探讨了城市生物多样性格局研究方法的关键问题,指出了未来城市生物多样性研究的发展方向,特别强调了城市生物多样性的生态系统功能研究在未来城市生物多样性研究中的重要地位.     

基于适应性循环理论的区域生态风险时空演变评估——以长江三角洲城市群为例

在城市扩张和气候变化背景下,三角洲社会与生态系统正遭受多方面风险威胁,适应性视角下的区域生态风险评估有助于理解复杂系统与风险影响之间的相互作用,为长江三角洲城市群适应性规划策略提供空间定量参考。以长江三角洲城市群社会-生态系统为研究对象,耦合适应性循环与区域生态风险评估理论,构建"潜力-连通度-韧性"适应性生态风险评估框架,从整体和动态的角度评估区域在当前与未来适应性生态风险的时空分布与各城市所处的适应性循环阶段。结果表明,适应性生态风险由沿海区-城市群-生态区域呈现由较高到高再到低的趋势,大城市外围现已出现较高风险。至2030年,风险整体呈上升趋势,高风险向中小城市和生态区域蔓延。从适应性循环阶段来看,杭州、宁波等14个城市处于生态风险较低的重组阶段。常州、南通等8个城市处于风险升高的开发阶段。上海、南京、无锡和苏州处于城市发展成熟风险开始降低的保护阶段。本研究通过评估长三角城市群适应性生态风险,得到高风险区分布与各个城市的适应性风险趋势,为长三角城市群动态变化下的适应性规划策略制定提供了科学的指导,以实现区域的可持续发展。     

Winter climate change effects on soil C and N cycles in urban grasslands

Despite growing recognition of the role that cities have in global biogeochemical cycles, urban systems are among the least understood of all ecosystems. Urban grasslands are expanding rapidly along with urbanization, which is expected to increase at unprecedented rates in upcoming decades. The large and increasing area of urban grasslands and their impact on water and air quality justify the need for a better understanding of their biogeochemical cycles. There is also great uncertainty about the effect that climate change, especially changes in winter snow cover, will have on nutrient cycles in urban grasslands. We aimed to evaluate how reduced snow accumulation directly affects winter soil frost dynamics, and indirectly greenhouse gas fluxes and the processing of carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) during the subsequent growing season in northern urban grasslands. Both artificial and natural snow reduction increased winter soil frost, affecting winter microbial C and N processing, accelerating C and N cycles and increasing soil : atmosphere greenhouse gas exchange during the subsequent growing season. With lower snow accumulations that are predicted with climate change, we found decreases in N retention in these ecosystems, and increases in N₂O and CO₂ flux to the atmosphere, significantly increasing the global warming potential of urban grasslands. Our results suggest that the environmental impacts of these rapidly expanding ecosystems are likely to increase as climate change brings milder winters and more extensive soil frost.     

A habitat island approach to conserving birds in urban landscapes: case studies from southern and northern Europe

Wildlife conservation in urban habitats is increasingly important due to current urbanization trends. We review the different approaches to studying birds in urban landscapes, and point out the importance of the habitat island ecological theory as a research framework for the management and conservation of urban birds. Based on two comprehensive research projects conducted at urban parks in Spain (Madrid) and Finland (Oulu and Rovaniemi), several different issues related to bird conservation in cities are discussed, main findings of these projects are presented, and future research needs are suggested. Urban parks are important biodiversity hotspots in cities. Fragmentation conditions have the same deleterious effects to urban birds as in other fragmented landscapes. Park size accounts for species accumulation in urban parks; this pattern being highly nested. Urban parks of 10–35 ha would contain most of the species recorded in cities, but other indicators related to the probabilities of persistence of the target species should be obtained. Wooded streets can increase urban landscape connectivity by providing alternative habitat for feeding and nesting during the breeding season. Because increasing the size of parks is difficult in cities, enhancement of habitat diversity and resource availability for birds within parks (e.g. nest boxes, winter feeding tables, etc.) appears to be a straightforward way of increasing urban bird diversity. However, human disturbance (pedestrians) should be controlled since it can negatively influence many urban birds. We present a conceptual model for urban bird conservation, which includes three aspects (management, environmental education and research) and new alternatives to promote the involvement of different sectors of the society.     

Mapping urban ecology education in the UK

Abstract

Urban ecology has matured as a field of investigation. This paper explores how well it has transitioned into the educational curricula of UK Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) by mapping the presence of urban ecological or environmental topics across undergraduate and postgraduate programmes. The prevalence of different topics, the level at which they are taught, and the disciplinary areas in which they are housed, are quantified. Urban ecological topics are found in programmes across 50 of 147 HEIs (34%), mainly taught in ancillary fashion to support wider subjects, though some specialist modules and even programmes do exist. Only one HEI incorporates a compulsory (core) dedicated urban ecology module at undergraduate level. Much urban ecology teaching takes place at advanced undergraduate and postgraduate levels. Applied topics are usually taught from an environmental science perspective, with common examples including urban hydrology, climate, and green infrastructure; probably to address global concerns about urban sustainability and resilience. In particular there is scope for greater incorporation of urban ecology topics and themes into biological and ecological programmes, and utilising cities as labs to explore these topics. The paper concludes with a discussion of some of these possibilities.     

韧性城市研究综述——基于城市复杂系统视角

在全球气候变化与持续城市化的背景下,增强城市韧性是提升城市应急管理能力,实现城市系统可持续发展的重要途径。明确城市韧性的内涵、核心要素及相互作用机理,开展城市系统韧性测度与城市系统模拟,对提升变化环境下城市系统恢复力与韧性水平,缓解变化环境对城市系统运行稳定性冲击压力具有重要意义。基于文献与资料分析,全面解析韧性城市核心概念与各国韧性城市建设、管理与研究实践。此外,研究从城市复杂系统视角探究变化环境对城市系统影响机制、测度方法与系统模拟路径。研究为韧性城市理论、方法与实证研究提供了参考,并为我国韧性城市建设实践提供决策依据与政策建议。     

长三角城市群碳排放与城市用地增长及形态的关系

城市是一种重要的碳源,城市扩张过程中的用地面积增长和空间特征变化均会影响城市碳排放。分析1995—2015年长三角城市群碳排放重心转移,查明碳排放和城市用地增长的脱钩状态时空变化,并通过构建面板数据模型探究城市形态对碳排放的影响,得出以下结论:(1) 1995—2015年长三角城市群碳排放重心经历了西南向-西北向-东南向-西北向的转移过程,这种转移过程与其相应时期内部分城市的工业发展与产业结构调整有关;(2) 1995—2015年,长三角城市群碳排放与城市用地增长的脱钩状态存在着显著的时空异质性。研究区由以扩张负脱钩为主变化为以弱脱钩为主,2005年以后,区域之间的脱钩差异开始缩小,总体来看研究区脱钩状态趋向于同质。至2015年,近70%的城市已达到了脱钩,其中上海等城市实现了强脱钩;(3)连续完整的地块在区域内的主导程度会对城市碳排放产生负向的影响,而城市用地斑块的破碎化程度和聚集程度对碳排放有着正向的影响,且相对而言,聚集程度的正向影响更为显著。     

一种城市生态系统现状评价方法及其应用

生态城市建设是未来城市发展的最终趋势。从结构、功能、活动、发展演化规律等方面来看,城市生态系统都可以被看作一个动态变化的系统。将可持续发展理论引入到城市生态系统现状评价中,提出和解释了城市生态系统可持续发展概念;从可持续发展的角度,评价城市生态系统的现状,建立城市生态系统可持续发展评价指标体系。在此基础上,利用集对分析方法,将评价城市生态系统可持续发展水平的多个指标系统合成一个与最优评价集的相对贴近度,用来描述城市生态系统可持续发展水平,并将该方法应用于兰州市城市生态系统现状评价。结果表明,在2004—2010年间,兰州市城市生态系统可持续发展水平呈现折线型关系,而且有明显的陡降现象。具体变化趋势是从2004年的0.5081平缓上升到2005年的0.5581、然后陡降到2006年的0.4073、接着平缓上升直到2009年的0.5010、最后平缓下降到2010年的0.4706。尽管不同时期城市生态系统可持续发展水平有所变化,但是总体来说,一直处在基本可持续发展的水平,协调程度一般;该评价方法能够很好的反映城市生态系统的发展现状,为建设生态城市提供科学依据。     

基于局地气候优化的城市蓝绿空间规划途径研究进展

在高密度、高强度的城市建设模式下,我国大中城市内部均面临着热岛效应加剧、通风能力下降、灰霾天气频发等局地气候环境问题。城市蓝绿空间作为调控城市风热环境、改善大气环境质量的关键要素,已成为城市空间规划设计领域应对局地气候问题的重要研究对象。本文通过对国内外城市蓝绿空间局地气候效应研究文献资料的回顾,从城市蓝绿空间规划布局、网络构建两个层面,梳理了冷岛景观特征优化、冷岛空间镶嵌布局、通风廊道网络连通、通风廊道界面管控的规划学途径研究进展,并总结了相关研究的主要成果及存在的主要问题,提出从智能仿真平台、评估指标体系、规划设计指南、实施保障机制4方面建立城市蓝绿空间规划应对局地气候问题的研究框架,以期为城市气候适应性规划理论创新提供有益启示。     

局地气候分区视角下城市气候与人居环境研究进展

城市气候与人居环境交互影响。局地气候分区(Local Climate Zone, LCZ)推动了城市形态刻画与气候演变规律探索,为城市气候与人居环境研究提供了统一框架。学术界对其研究大多聚焦在城市热环境和气候风险方面,正在向多要素气候模拟和考虑社会经济因素方向发展。审查了主题、方法和主要结论,发现"局地气候分区"、"城市热岛"、"地表温度"、"管理"和"社区"出现频率最高。采用文献计量和专题分析方法,梳理并总结了2012-2023年6月LCZ城市气候与人居环境研究在LCZ制图、相互作用和适应性策略三方面的进展,并展望了未来的研究重点。结果表明,① 全球已在超过280座城市开展了LCZ研究,LCZ全球数据集的推广扩大了研究尺度且丰富了研究内容;② 大多研究分析了风热环境为主的气候要素在局地尺度上的时空特征,探讨产生异质性的原因及其对人居环境的作用机理,揭示了城市蓝绿空间对于优化冷却效果、防范和治理热源等缓解性策略的重要性。其中自2018年起LCZ热环境研究向多元化发展,研究区域开始出现大都市圈或城市群;③ LCZ能够辅助识别人居环境中高度暴露和脆弱的地区,近年来的研究趋向于在气候/生态风险评估中寻找适应性策略,且更加关注易感人群和低收入者。综述将有利于LCZ框架下城市气候与人居环境研究现状和发展趋势的宏观把握,为后续研究提供思路。     

我国极端干旱天气变化趋势及其对城市水资源压力的影响

随着全球气候变化和水循环的改变,降水不均和持续干旱等极端天气事件的频度和强度增加,对水资源,尤其是人口和社会经济密度高的城市的水资源带来很大的影响和压力。为了探究我国干旱天气的变化趋势、区域特征、及其对城市水资源压力的影响,采用全国917个气象站点1951—2014年的逐日降水量数据集,分析了我国水资源及干旱的变化趋势和空间分布特征,并以我国289个主要地级市为研究对象,构建了气候变化情境下的城市基于区域降水禀赋的水资源压力评估方法,预测并展望了不同时段和不同代表性浓度路径(RCPs)情景下的未来城市水资源压力的情况。结果显示,我国极端干旱情况整体是随着全球气候变化增加的,年最长连续无降水天数变化速度的平均值为2.3d/100a,但是具有区域性,具体表现为南部地区干旱减缓而北部地区干旱严重。我国城市水资源压力受水资源禀赋的影响,呈现北方高而南方低的分布,除此之外水资源消耗大的大城市资源压力也比较大。随着气候变化,近期我国整体城市水资源压力相对现阶段增加了2%左右,具体水资源压力上升的城市有170个,水资源压力减少的城市有110个,剩下的9个城市水资源压力受气候变化的影响比较小。在低应对的RCP8.5情景下的城市水资源压力远远高于在RCP2.6情景,这说明减缓气候变化工作对降低我国城市水资源压力有积极作用;城市水资源压力的变化并不是均匀的,呈现南部减少而北部增加的变化趋势,我国华北地区城市的水资源压力最大,随着气候的变化,该地区的水资源压力也在随着时间不断增加,需要政府积极行动,提出有针对性和前瞻性的水资源规划方案,并依据方案采取措施,以应对气候变化造成的城市干旱增加。     

斑块面积对城市绿地降温效应的影响研究进展

在气候变化和快速城市化的双重影响下,全球城市面临日益加剧的热岛效应。绿地能够有效改善城市热环境。城市土地资源紧缺,优化绿地布局,使有限面积的绿地发挥更大的降温效果具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。其中,如何设置绿地斑块大小则是优化绿地布局的首要考虑因素之一。从斑块和景观的尺度总结了现有绿地斑块大小对其降温效应影响的研究进展,结果表明：1）在斑块尺度,随着绿地斑块面积增加,绿地的降温效应相应增加,但增加的趋势为非线性变化,表现为温度随绿地斑块面积的增加先下降,后趋于平稳,表明可能存在降温效率（单位面积绿地降温能力）最强的斑块大小;2）在景观尺度,绿地斑块大小在空间上的配置对热环境的影响研究结果存在差异,尚无一致性定论。基于已有研究,本文指出了现有绿地斑块大小对其降温效应影响研究中的问题与不足：1）主要关注绿地斑块大小与温度的统计关系,缺乏对其具体影响过程和内在机制的深入探讨;2）更多关注地表温度,而对与人体舒适度和健康直接相关的其他热环境指标的研究较少;3）研究中缺少对城市中数量巨大,分布最广的小型绿地斑块的考量。未来的研究应加强从遮阴和蒸腾等降温过程深入解析绿地斑块大小对热环境影响的内在机理机制,从降温效率的角度,探讨是否存在最优的斑块大小,并进一步探讨绿地周围建筑环境对绿地斑块大小与其降温效应关系的影响,为优化城市绿地分布,改善城市热环境提供科学依据。     

Projecting potential future shifts in species composition of European urban plant communities

Aim

Urban floras are composed of species of different origin, both native and alien, and with various traits and niches. It is likely that these species will respond to the ongoing climate change in different ways, resulting in future species compositions with no analogues in current European cities. Our goal was to estimate potential shifts in plant species composition in European cities under different scenarios of climate change for the 21st century.

Location

Europe.

Methods

Potential changes in the distribution of 375 species currently growing in 60 large cities in Southern, Central and Western Europe were modelled using generalized linear models and four climate change projections for two future periods (2041–2060 and 2061–2080). These projections were based on two global climate models (CCSM4 and MIROC‐ESM) and two Representative Concentration Pathways (2.6 and 8.5).

Results

Results were similar across all climate projections, suggesting that the composition of urban plant communities will change considerably due to future climate change. However, even under the most severe climate change scenario, native and alien species will respond to climate change similarly. Many currently established species will decline and others, especially annuals currently restricted to Southern Europe, will spread to northern cities. In contrast, perennial herbs, woody plants and most species with temperate continental and oceanic distribution ranges will make up a smaller proportion of future European urban plant communities in comparison with the present communities.

Main conclusions

The projected 21st century climate change will lead to considerable changes in the species composition of urban floras. These changes will affect the structure and functioning of urban plant communities.

     

Profiling urban vulnerabilities to climate change: An indicator-based vulnerability assessment for European cities

Governing climate change in cities entails a good understanding of urban vulnerabilities. This research presents an Indicator-based Vulnerability Assessment for 571 European cities. Basing on panel data from Urban Audit database and a set of newly developed indicators, we assessed urban vulnerabilities for the following impact chains: (i) heatwaves on human health; (ii) drought on water planning, and; (iii) flooding (sub-divided into pluvial, fluvial and coastal) on the socio-economic tissue and the urban fabric. Results shed light on the key challenges that specific groups of European cities face in order to better deal with the expected impacts of climate change. This knowledge is a necessary step to advance in the understanding of urban risks to climate change and the development of effective EU policies for urban adaptation.     

Ecology and urban planning

Urban areas harbour diverse nature ranging from semi-natural habitats to wastelands, parks and other highly human-influenced biotopes with their associated species assemblages. Maintenance of this urban biodiversity for the residents and for its intrinsic value in the face of increasing population and expanding cities requires that ecological knowledge should be better integrated into urban planning. To achieve this goal understanding of ecological patterns and processes in urban ecosystems is needed. The first step in the necessary urban ecological research is to find out what kind of nature exists in cities. Second, knowledge about ecological processes important in urban nature is required. Although ecological processes in cities are the same as in rural areas, some of them, such as invasion by alien species, are more prevalent in urban than in rural conditions. Third, based on ecological knowledge, management schemes maintaining the diversity of urban nature should be designed. These procedures should also include protection of urban nature, e.g. in urban national parks. Finally, as ecology alone cannot provide the complex information about human influence on urban ecosystems, interdisciplinary research involving natural and social sciences is imperative for a holistic approach to integrating ecology into the process of urban planning.     

The statistics of urban scaling and their connection to Zipf's law

Urban scaling relations characterizing how diverse properties of cities vary on average with their population size have recently been shown to be a general quantitative property of many urban systems around the world. However, in previous studies the statistics of urban indicators were not analyzed in detail, raising important questions about the full characterization of urban properties and how scaling relations may emerge in these larger contexts. Here, we build a self-consistent statistical framework that characterizes the joint probability distributions of urban indicators and city population sizes across an urban system. To develop this framework empirically we use one of the most granular and stochastic urban indicators available, specifically measuring homicides in cities of Brazil, Colombia and Mexico, three nations with high and fast changing rates of violent crime. We use these data to derive the conditional probability of the number of homicides per year given the population size of a city. To do this we use Bayes' rule together with the estimated conditional probability of city size given their number of homicides and the distribution of total homicides. We then show that scaling laws emerge as expectation values of these conditional statistics. Knowledge of these distributions implies, in turn, a relationship between scaling and population size distribution exponents that can be used to predict Zipf's exponent from urban indicator statistics. Our results also suggest how a general statistical theory of urban indicators may be constructed from the stochastic dynamics of social interaction processes in cities.     

城市土壤碳循环与碳固持研究综述

城市化过程带来的土地利用变化和环境污染是全球变化的重要方面,城市为人们了解人类与自然复合生态系统对全球变化的影响及其对全球变化的响应过程提供一个独特的"天然实验室"。陆地生态系统碳循环是全球变化研究的热点领域之一,然而,人们对城市在全球碳循环中的作用和影响知之甚少,城市土壤碳循环研究处于起步阶段。介绍了城市土壤的主要特性和碳循环特征,指出强烈的人为作用是其最突出的特点;综述了城市土壤碳库、碳通量和碳固持研究方面取得的进展;探讨了城市化过程中土地利用变化、土壤中生物及土壤管护措施、城市小气候、大气污染沉降和土壤污染等对土壤碳循环的影响;提出未来城市碳循环研究需要开展长期系统监测、深化城市土壤碳循环机制研究、创新研究范式和研究方法、并将研究成果与城市景观规划与设计相结合,提升城市土壤碳管理能力。