Freshwater for resilience: a shift in thinking

Humanity shapes freshwater flows and biosphere dynamics from a local to a global scale. Successful management of target resources in the short term tends to alienate the social and economic development process from its ultimate dependence on the life-supporting environment. Freshwater becomes transformed into a resource for optimal management in development, neglecting the multiple functions of freshwater in dynamic landscapes and its fundamental role as the bloodstream of the biosphere. The current tension of these differences in worldview is exemplified through the recent development of modern aquaculture contrasted with examples of catchment-based stewardship of freshwater flows in dynamic landscapes. In particular, the social and institutional dimension of catchment management is highlighted and features of social-ecological systems for resilience building are presented. It is concluded that this broader view of freshwater provides the foundation for hydrosolidarity.     

“Community Work” in a Climate of Adaptation: Responding to Change in Rural Alaska

We draw on our research experiences with municipal workers in Alaska, where the impacts of climate change are already extensive, to examine adaptation and related concepts, such as resilience and vulnerability, which have become widely used in science and policy formulation for addressing climate change despite also being subject to multiple critiques. We use local people’s experiences with environmental challenges to illustrate limitations of the climate change adaptation paradigm, and offer the additional concept of “community work” — analogous to niche construction — as a counterpart to the adaptive process at the community level. Whereas climate change adaptation insinuates active and purposive change, the reality we have repeatedly encountered is that people in these communities focus not on changing but on building and maintaining capacity and achieving stability: keeping aging and overtaxed infrastructure running while also working toward improving quality of life and services in their communities. We discuss how these findings are congruent with recent calls to better situate climate change adaptation policy in the context of community development, and argue that scientists and policymakers need to understand this context of community work to avoid the pitfalls that potentially accompany the adaptation paradigm.     

The role of industrial ecology in food and agriculture's adaptation to climate change

The food and agriculture sectors contribute significantly to climate change, but are also particularly vulnerable to its effects. Industrial ecology has robustly addressed these sectors’ contributions to climate change, but not their vulnerability to climate change. Climate change vulnerability must be addressed through development of climate change adaptation and resiliency strategies. However, there is a fundamental tension between the primary objectives of industrial ecology (efficiency, cyclic flows, and pollution prevention) and what is needed for climate change adaptation and resiliency. We develop here two potential ways through which the field can overcome (or work within) this tension and combine the tools and methods of industrial ecology with the science and process of climate change adaptation. The first layers industrial ecology tools on top of climate change adaptation strategies, allowing one to, for example, compare the environmental impacts of different adaptation strategies. The other embeds climate change adaptation and resiliency within industrial ecology tools, for example, by redefining the functional unit in life cycle assessment (LCA) to include functions of resiliency. In both, industrial ecology plays a somewhat narrow role, informing climate change adaptation and resilience decision‐making by providing quantitative indicators of environmental performance. This role for industrial ecology is important given the significant contributions and potential for mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions from food and agriculture. However, it suggests that industrial ecology's role in climate adaptation will be as an evaluator of adaptation strategies, rather than an originator.     

Climate Change,Water Practices and Relational Worlds in the Andes

Climate change translates into insecure water provision and produces new uncertainties for farmers and politicians in Colca Valley, Southern Peru. Anthropological studies of climate change have mainly focused on adaptation, resilience and so-called indigenous traditional knowledge. This article argues that a stronger ethnographic focus on material practices – including knowledge practices – can contribute to a more nuanced understanding of climate change effects, responses and forms of water management. The author aims to see responses to climate change as more than cultural representations, and therefore focuses on water practices and the realities that these practices make, as well as the relational webs of humans, environment, infrastructure and other-than-human beings. The article explores different practices that enact multiple versions of water, and multiple – yet related and entangled – water worlds. The author suggests that this has implications for how we understand politics of climate and water: as tensions between singularizing practices and multiplicity.     

The Politics of Adaptation: Subsistence Livelihoods and Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Koyukon Athabascan Village of Ruby,Alaska

The concepts of vulnerability and adaptation have contributed to understanding human responses to climate change. However, analysis of the implications of the broader political context on adaptation has largely been absent. Through a case study of the subsistence livelihoods of Koyukon Athabascan people of Ruby Village, this paper examines the implications of adaptation to the social changes precipitated by colonization for the articulation of current responses to climate change. Semi-structured interviews, seasonal rounds, and land-use mapping conducted with 20 community experts indicate that subsistence livelihoods are of continued importance to the people of Ruby in spite of the dramatic social change. While adaptive responses demonstrate resilience, adaptation to one form of change can increase vulnerability to other kinds of perturbations. Research findings illustrate that a historical approach to adaptation can clarify the influence of the present political context on indigenous peoples’ responses to impacts of climate changes.     

Regional analysis of drought and heat impacts on forests: current and future science directions

Accurate assessments of forest response to current and future climate and human actions are needed at regional scales. Predicting future impacts on forests will require improved analysis of species‐level adaptation, resilience, and vulnerability to mortality. Land system models can be enhanced by creating trait‐based groupings of species that better represent climate sensitivity, such as risk of hydraulic failure from drought. This emphasizes the need for more coordinated in situ and remote sensing observations to track changes in ecosystem function, and to improve model inputs, spatio‐temporal diagnosis, and predictions of future conditions, including implications of actions to mitigate climate change.     

Context-dependent changes in the resistance and resilience of soil microbes to an experimental disturbance for three primary plant chronosequences

The extrinsic factors that regulate soil microbial stability (resistance and resilience) are little understood, even though soil microbes are important drivers of ecosystem function and their stability is likely to affect soil carbon storage and plant nutrient availability. Soils were collected across three primary plant chronosequences (two in New Zealand and one in Hawaii) that differed in climate, parent material and time spans to test the following hypotheses: i) there is a tradeoff between the resistance and resilience of key soil microbial response variables, ii) this tradeoff is related to the relationship of soil microbial resistance and resilience to soil resources, iii) resources change predictably during different primary plant chronosequences, and iv) if the first three hypotheses hold and are consistent for all three chronosequences, then soil microbial resistance and resilience should change predictably across different chronosequences. Results showed that although there was a tradeoff between resistance and resilience, the role of resources in determining this was unclear. Within each chronosequence, resources that were positively related to resistance were negatively related to resilience and vice versa, consistent with our second hypothesis. However, the direction and strength of correlations between stability and soil resources depended strongly on which soil microbial response variable was measured, and the chronosequence it was measured in. Total amounts of resources often showed consistent trends with ecosystem development for each chronosequence, but the way that resource quality changed varied between chronosequences. At least partly because of the variable nature of these relationships, the trajectory of resistance and resilience during ecosystem development varied considerably across chronosequences. Thus, although consistent trends were found within each chronosequence, the relationships between the stability of different soil microbial response variables, resources and ecosystem development depended strongly on which chronosequence was considered.     

Toward sustainable climate change adaptation

Industrial ecology (IE) has made great contributions to climate change mitigation research, in terms of its systems thinking and solid methodologies such as life cycle assessment, material flow analysis, and environmentally extended input–output analysis. However, its potential contribution to climate change adaptation is unclear. Adaptation has become increasingly urgent in a continuously changing climate, especially in developing countries, which are projected to bear the brunt of climate‐change‐related damages. On the basis of a brief review of climate change impacts and adaptation literature, we suggest that IE can play an important role in the following two aspects. First, with the emphasis on a systems perspective, IE can help us determine how climate change interacts with our socio‐economic system and how the interactions may aggravate (or moderate) its direct impacts or whether they may shift burden to other environmental impacts. Second, IE methodologies can help us quantify the direct and indirect environmental impacts of adaptation activities, identify mitigation opportunities, and achieve sustainable adaptation. Further, we find that substantial investment is needed to increase the resilience of infrastructure (e.g., transport, energy, and water supply) and agriculture in developing countries. Because these sectors are also the main drivers of environmental degradation, how to achieve sustainable climate‐resilient infrastructure and agriculture in developing countries deserves special attention in future IE studies. Overall, IE thinking and methodologies have great potential to contribute to climate change adaptation research and policy questions, and exploring this growing field will, in turn, inspire IE development.     

Planning adaptation to climate change in fast-warming marine regions with seafood-dependent coastal communities

Many coastal communities rely on living marine resources for livelihoods and food security. These resources are commonly under stress from overfishing, pollution, coastal development and habitat degradation. Climate change is an additional stressor beginning to impact coastal systems and communities, but may also lead to opportunities for some species and the people they sustain. We describe the research approach for a multi-country project, focused on the southern hemisphere, designed to contribute to improving fishing community adaptation efforts by characterizing, assessing and predicting the future of coastal-marine food resources, and co-developing adaptation options through the provision and sharing of knowledge across fast-warming marine regions (i.e. marine ‘hotspots’). These hotspots represent natural laboratories for observing change and concomitant human adaptive responses, and for developing adaptation options and management strategies. Focusing on adaptation options and strategies for enhancing coastal resilience at the local level will contribute to capacity building and local empowerment in order to minimise negative outcomes and take advantage of opportunities arising from climate change. However, developing comparative approaches across regions that differ in political institutions, socio-economic community demographics, resource dependency and research capacity is challenging. Here, we describe physical, biological, social and governance tools to allow hotspot comparisons, and several methods to evaluate and enhance interactions within a multi-nation research team. Strong partnerships within and between the focal regions are critical to scientific and political support for development of effective approaches to reduce future vulnerability. Comparing these hotspot regions will enhance local adaptation responses and generate outcomes applicable to other regions.     

Response of primary and secondary rainforest flowers and fruits to a cyclone,and implications for plant‐servicing bats

The response of primary (PF) and secondary (SF) rainforests to cyclones has broad implications for servicing fauna and the resilience of forest functions. We collected fine‐scale data on the reproductive phenology of plant communities in Fijian PF and SF in 12 monthly surveys before and after Cyclone Tomas (2010). We generated a resource index from the reproductive loads of 2218 trees and 1150 non‐trees (>190 species) and trunk and stem diameter to assess patterns in resource abundance for nectarivores and frugivores (hereafter NF resources). We aimed to determine (i) whether species richness of NF resources differed between forests; (ii) the patterns of resilience of NF resources at community level in both forests after a cyclone; and (iii) the effect of response on NF resources for plant‐servicing bats (Pteropodidae). In 12 months preceding the cyclone, NF resources were greater in PF trees; non‐tree resources fluctuated and were greater in SF. Lower species richness of NF resources in SF indicated that fewer opportunities exist there for exploitation by a diverse fauna. More resources were available for bats in PF. In 12 months following the cyclone, PF flowers and fruits, and SF fruits specifically used by pteropodid bats decreased for trees. Non‐tree resources were especially susceptible to the cyclone. No universal pattern of decline was associated with the cyclone; instead, some NF resources declined and others were resilient or responded rapidly to a post‐cyclone environment. Both PF and SF demonstrated resilience at the community level via increased flower survival (PF) and rapid flower production (SF). Reduced species richness of NF resources in SF will compromise future resilience and response to disturbance, including for threatened pteropodid bat species. These findings are critical for long‐term management of forests, given predicted increases in cyclone frequency and intensity associated with anthropogenic climate change.     

Reunderstanding Cairo through urban metabolism: Formal versus informal districts resource flow performance in fast urbanizing cities

Urban expansion can be seen as the most pervasive human impact on the environment where its high resource use contributes negatively to climate change and resource scarcity crises. Many experts call for decoupling resource use, economic development, and related urban development especially within cities of the Global South. This paper focuses on investigating resource efficiency through the lens of urban metabolism. It investigates current resource flows, through material flow analysis, from source to sink, in two diverse districts in Cairo: a formal district and an informal one, regarding materials (waste) and mobility. Consequently, the paper discusses locally responsive interventions that address local priorities as opposing to citywide one‐size fits all solution. The paper relies on parcel audits, which are embedded in an Urban Metabolism Information System developed by the Ecocity Builders and their partners, through a joint project with Cairo University. The methodology couples crowd‐sourced data, parcel audits, and experts’ knowledge to better understand resource flows based on a bottom‐up approach, given the unavailability of governmental data on the local level. The paper further correlates the perceived quality of life with the actual resource flows. It utilizes fieldwork investigations to argue against the local misconceptions regarding the inefficiency of informal areas/systems versus the higher efficiency of planned areas/systems. The paper concludes by proposing integrated solutions that respond to local needs and resources. It highlights the challenges and lessons of this tailored bottom‐up approach and its applicability in other cities worldwide.     

生态治理内陆河流域社区恢复力演变特征及影响因素——以石羊河流域为例

探究生态治理背景下内陆河流域社区恢复力演变规律及其影响因素,对于流域生态保护与社会经济高质量发展具有重要意义。选取石羊河流域为典型研究区,在识别社区恢复力演变的基础上,探究社区恢复力内部影响因素及外部生态治理影响路径,进而揭示社区恢复力影响机制。结果表明：(1)生态治理背景下石羊河流域社区恢复力迅速增长且时空异质性明显,其中,生态维度空间格局集聚度高且优势性强,但增长缓慢,经济及社会维度时空异质性大,且增长迅速;(2)石羊河流域社区恢复力内部影响因素中,经济维度具有主导影响,社会维度影响减弱,而生态维度影响最小且变化趋势不大;(3)外部生态治理影响中,退耕还林及关井压田在三个时期对社区恢复力均起到制约作用,农业技术培训早期制约社区恢复力提升,后期制约作用消失,多重生态治理要素组合影响在2000年表现为农业结构调整及资源调控路径,2010年表现为农业结构调整路径、生活水资源主导调控路径、生态水资源主导调控路径,2020年表现为农业结构调整及资源配置路径、农业结构调整及技术支持路径、生产水资源主导配置路径。总体来说,研究为社区恢复力内外部影响因素综合研究提供了思路,也为内陆河流域未来乡村社...     

Beyond cool: adapting upland streams for climate change using riparian woodlands

Managed adaptation could reduce the risks of climate change to the world's ecosystems, but there have been surprisingly few practical evaluations of the options available. For example, riparian woodland is advocated widely as shade to reduce warming in temperate streams, but few studies have considered collateral effects on species composition or ecosystem functions. Here, we use cross‐sectional analyses at two scales (region and within streams) to investigate whether four types of riparian management, including those proposed to reduce potential climate change impacts, might also affect the composition, functional character, dynamics and energetic resourcing of macroinvertebrates in upland Welsh streams (UK). Riparian land use across the region had only small effects on invertebrate taxonomic composition, while stable isotope data showed how energetic resources assimilated by macroinvertebrates in all functional guilds were split roughly 50:50 between terrestrial and aquatic origins irrespective of riparian management. Nevertheless, streams draining the most extensive deciduous woodland had the greatest stocks of coarse particulate matter (CPOM) and greater numbers of ‘shredding’ detritivores. Stream‐scale investigations showed that macroinvertebrate biomass in deciduous woodland streams was around twice that in moorland streams, and lowest of all in streams draining non‐native conifers. The unexpected absence of contrasting terrestrial signals in the isotopic data implies that factors other than local land use affect the relative incorporation of allochthonous subsidies into riverine food webs. Nevertheless, our results reveal how planting deciduous riparian trees along temperate headwaters as an adaptation to climate change can modify macroinvertebrate function, increase biomass and potentially enhance resilience by increasing basal resources where cover is extensive (>60 m riparian width). We advocate greater urgency in efforts to understand the ecosystem consequences of climate change adaptation to guide future actions.     

长三角城市群城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的耦合协调关系

厘清城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务之间耦合协调关系,可为城市防洪减灾和生态文明建设提供重要决策参考。综合运用基于麻雀算法的投影寻踪模型、InVEST模型和耦合协调度模型,在分析2000-2020年长三角城市群的城市洪涝韧性与水源涵养、水质净化、土壤保持和气候调节四种生态系统服务时空格局基础上,尝试探索两者耦合协调关系及其时空演变特征。研究发现:(1)长三角城市群的城市洪涝韧性水平呈现"N"型增加趋势,并呈现"上海>江苏>浙江>安徽"的空间格局,表明经济水平越高的城市展现出更强的洪涝韧性,经济是影响城市洪涝韧性波动的主要因素,而自然韧性成为城市洪涝韧性提升的关键短板;(2)生态系统服务存在显著的空间异质性,高植被覆盖的南部地区提供了更高的生态系统服务,从时间维度看其空间分布是稳定的,水源涵养和水质净化服务总体呈向好趋势,土壤保持服务整体呈现倒"N"型增加,气候调节服务呈现微弱的下降趋势;(3)城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的耦合协调度在研究期内较为稳定,且与生态系统服务的时空变化趋于一致,呈现"南高北低、由西南向东北逐渐减弱"的趋势,生态系统服务较高的城市,表现出更好的耦合协调性,且随着生态系统服务的增加而改善。因此,长三角城市群有必要从提高生态系统服务功能的角度出发,因地制宜、分类施策,促进城市洪涝韧性与生态系统服务的协调发展。     

A review on the potential effects of environmental and economic factors on sheep genetic diversity: Consequences of climate change

Climate change has a significant effect on the productivity of livestock including milk, meat, and reproduction. This could be attributed to the internal diversion of energy resources towards adaptive mechanisms. Among the climate change variables, thermal stress seems to be the major limiting factor in animal agriculture. A better understanding of the effects of climate change-influenced ecological factors on the genetic diversity of livestock species is warranted. Sheep is an ideal livestock species to be used in investigating environmental adaptation due to its wide range of agroecological habitats, genetic and phenotypic variability. There is a heavy reliance on sheep genetic diversity for future animal protein security, but the implications of climate change on their genetic diversity receive less attention.Here, the potential environmental factors influencing natural selection in sheep populations are presented. We argue that prolonged exposure to these factors plays a major role in influencing the development of adaptation traits in indigenous sheep breeds, consequently leading to the alteration of genetic diversity at specific loci. The factors discussed include hot temperatures (heat stress), insufficient water, low quantity and quality of forage, and prevalence of parasites, pests, and diseases. In addition, genetic diversity, some signatures of selection for adaptation and economic angles of selection are also briefly discussed.A better understanding of environmental factors influencing the genetic diversity of sheep populations will inform breeding and management programs and may offer an opportunity for greater production efficiency with low input costs.     

气候变化、林火和营林措施对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响

生态弹性是森林生态系统在遭受外在扰动后恢复到稳定状态的能力,是森林资源可持续发展的重要目标之一,且森林生态弹性对诸如气候变化、林火和营林措施等外部因子的影响较为敏感.探究这些外部因子对森林生态弹性的影响在未来森林生态系统管理方面有重要意义.本研究首先从森林组成、结构和功能等方面选取指标因子并估算了森林生态弹性值,然后运用LANDIS PRO模型,模拟气候变化、林火干扰和营林措施等对寒温带典型森林生态弹性的影响,并探讨了当前抚育采伐方案在未来气候下的可持续性.结果表明: 模型初始化的2000年林分密度和胸高断面积与2000年真实景观较为吻合,模拟的2010年森林景观与野外调查数据无明显差异,基于当前林火干扰状况的模拟结果与火烧迹地调查数据基本匹配,说明林火模块能很好地模拟当前研究区林火发生状况.林火干扰增加30%将会使该区模拟期内景观水平上森林生态弹性提高15.7%～40.8%,而林火干扰增加200%则会降低该区4.4%～24.6%的森林生态弹性.短期和中期林火干扰增加对森林生态弹性的影响大于气候变化的影响.与当前预案相比,B1气候(林火增加30%预案)和A2气候(林火增加200%预案)对整个模拟阶段景观尺度森林生态弹性的影响分别处于-15.9%～38.9%和-60.4%～34.8%范围内.与无采伐预案相比,B1和A2气候下在整个模拟时期内若继续实施当前抚育采伐方案,将不利于景观水平森林生态弹性的提高.在B1气候(林火增加30%预案)下,在各模拟时期内无需实施任何营林措施;而在A2气候(林火增加200%预案)下,建议实施中、高强度种植的营林措施以提升景观水平森林生态弹性.     

Transformational restoration: novel ecosystems in Denmark

Restoring the estimated 1 billion hectares of degraded forests must consider future climate accompanied by novel ecosystems. Transformational restoration can play a key role in adaptation to climate change but it is conceptually the most divergent from contemporary approaches favoring native species and natural disturbance regimes. Here, we review concepts of novelty in ecosystems with examples of emergent/neo-native and designed novel ecosystems, with application to transformational restoration. Danish forests have a high degree of novelty and provide a realistic context for discussing assisted migration, one method of transformational adaptation. Deforestation and impacts of past land use created a highly degraded landscape dominated by heathland in western Denmark. Restoration with non-native species began 150 years ago because the native broadleaves could not establish on the heathlands. Danish forestry continues to rely extensively on non-native species. Preparing for transformational adaptation requires risky research today to prepare for events in the future and refugia from the last glaciation may provide genetic material better adapted to future climate. A new project will test whether species and provenances from the Caspian forests in Iran possess greater genetic diversity and superior resistance (physiological adaptability) and resilience (evolutionary adaptability) and possibly a gene pool for future adaptation.     

Insurance Value of Green Infrastructure in and Around Cities

The combination of climate change and urbanization projected to occur until 2050 poses new challenges for land-use planning, not least in terms of reducing urban vulnerability to hazards from projected increases in the frequency and intensity of climate extremes. Interest in investments in green infrastructure (interconnected systems of parks, wetlands, gardens and other green spaces), as well as in restoration of urban ecosystems as part of such adaptation strategies, is growing worldwide. Previous research has highlighted the insurance value of ecosystems in securing the supply of ecosystem services in the face of disturbance and change, yet this literature neglects urban areas even though urban populations are often highly vulnerable. We revisit the insurance value literature to examine the applicability of the concept in urban contexts, illustrating it with two case studies: watersheds providing drinking water for residents of Vancouver, Canada; and private gardens ensuring connectedness between other parts of urban green infrastructure in London, UK. Our research supports the notion that investments in green infrastructure can enhance insurance value, reducing vulnerability and the costs of adaptation to climate change and other environmental change. Although we recommend that urban authorities consider the insurance value of ecosystems in their decision-making matrix, we advise caution in relying upon monetary evaluations of insurance value. We conclude by identifying actions and management strategies oriented to maintain or enhance the insurance value of urban ecosystems. Ecosystems that are themselves resilient to external disturbances are better able to provide insurance for broader social–ecological systems.     

Vulnerability of the global terrestrial ecosystems to climate change

Climate change has far‐reaching impacts on ecosystems. Recent attempts to quantify such impacts focus on measuring exposure to climate change but largely ignore ecosystem resistance and resilience, which may also affect the vulnerability outcomes. In this study, the relative vulnerability of global terrestrial ecosystems to short‐term climate variability was assessed by simultaneously integrating exposure, sensitivity, and resilience at a high spatial resolution (0.05°). The results show that vulnerable areas are currently distributed primarily in plains. Responses to climate change vary among ecosystems and deserts and xeric shrublands are the most vulnerable biomes. Global vulnerability patterns are determined largely by exposure, while ecosystem sensitivity and resilience may exacerbate or alleviate external climate pressures at local scales; there is a highly significant negative correlation between exposure and sensitivity. Globally, 61.31% of the terrestrial vegetated area is capable of mitigating climate change impacts and those areas are concentrated in polar regions, boreal forests, tropical rainforests, and intact forests. Under current sensitivity and resilience conditions, vulnerable areas are projected to develop in high Northern Hemisphere latitudes in the future. The results suggest that integrating all three aspects of vulnerability (exposure, sensitivity, and resilience) may offer more comprehensive and spatially explicit adaptation strategies to reduce the impacts of climate change on terrestrial ecosystems.     

Incorporating evolutionary adaptation in species distribution modelling reduces projected vulnerability to climate change

Based on the sensitivity of species to ongoing climate change, and numerous challenges they face tracking suitable conditions, there is growing interest in species' capacity to adapt to climatic stress. Here, we develop and apply a new generic modelling approach (AdaptR) that incorporates adaptive capacity through physiological limits, phenotypic plasticity, evolutionary adaptation and dispersal into a species distribution modelling framework. Using AdaptR to predict change in the distribution of 17 species of Australian fruit flies (Drosophilidae), we show that accounting for adaptive capacity reduces projected range losses by up to 33% by 2105. We identify where local adaptation is likely to occur and apply sensitivity analyses to identify the critical factors of interest when parameters are uncertain. Our study suggests some species could be less vulnerable than previously thought, and indicates that spatiotemporal adaptive models could help improve management interventions that support increased species' resilience to climate change.