The Dematerialization Potential of the Australian Economy

In this article we test the long‐term dematerialization potential for Australia in terms of materials, energy, and water use as well as CO₂ emissions by introducing concrete targets for major sectors. Major improvements in the construction and housing, transport and mobility, and food and nutrition sectors in the Australian economy, if coupled with significant reductions in the resource export sectors, would substantially improve the current material, energy, and emission intensive pattern of Australia's production and consumption system. Using the Australian Stocks and Flows Framework we model all system interactions to understand the contributions of large‐scale changes in technology, infrastructure, and lifestyle to decoupling the economy from the environment. The modeling shows a considerable reduction in natural resource use, while energy and water use decrease to a much lesser extent because a reduction in natural resource consumption creates a trade‐off in energy use. It also shows that trade and economic growth may continue, but at a reduced rate compared with a business‐as‐usual scenario. The findings of our modeling are discussed in light of the large body of literature on dematerialization, eco‐efficiency, and rebound effects that may occur when efficiency is increased. We argue that Australia cannot rely on incremental efficiency gains but has to undergo a sustainability transition to achieve a low carbon future to keep in line with the international effort to avoid climate change and resource use conflicts. We touch upon the institutional changes that would be required to guide a sustainability transition in the Australian economy, such as an emission trading scheme.     

The Metabolic Transition in Japan

The notion of a (socio‐) metabolic transition has been used to describe fundamental changes in socioeconomic energy and material use during industrialization. During the last century, Japan developed from a largely agrarian economy to one of the world's leading industrial nations. It is one of the few industrial countries that has experienced prolonged dematerialization and recently has adopted a rigorous resource policy. This article investigates changes in Japan's metabolism during industrialization on the basis of a material flow account for the period from 1878 to 2005. It presents annual data for material extraction, trade, and domestic consumption by major material group and explores the relations among population growth, economic development, and material (and energy) use. During the observed period, the size of Japan's metabolism grew by a factor of 40, and the share of mineral and fossil materials in domestic material consumption (DMC) grew to more than 90%. Much of the growth in the Japanese metabolism was based on imported materials and occurred in only 20 years after World War II (WWII), when Japan rapidly built up large stocks of built infrastructure, developed heavy industry, and adopted patterns of mass production and consumption. The surge in material use came to an abrupt halt with the first oil crisis, however. Material use stabilized, and the economy eventually began to dematerialize. Although gross domestic product (GDP) grew much faster than material use, improvements in material intensity are a relatively recent phenomenon. Japan emerges as a role model for the metabolic transition but is also exceptional in many ways.     

What Is Resource Consumption and How Can It Be Measured?

In the first part of this series of two articles, an approach was presented that takes the entropy production associated with any process as a measure of the resource consumption of that process. Entropy production is thereby used to approximate the intuitive notion of consumption, which can best be described by the term “loss of potential utility.” This article presents an application example from the metallurgical sector. The related concept of exergy analysis is discussed and compared against the entropy approach. It was found that the production of 1 ton of refined copper generates 90.2 megajoules per Kelvin of entropy. A comparison with exergy analyses of copper production processes from the literature shows agreement at least on the order of magnitude. While results in one case deviate from the entropy analysis by about 40%, in another case the deviation is about 160%. One can only speculate on the reasons for this discrepancy, without knowing the exact process specifications of the processes analyzed. For entropy production as a measure for resource consumption, a baseline for comparison and interpretation of the results based on natural entropy disposal and reduction mechanisms is suggested.     

What Is Resource Consumption and How Can It Be Measured?

When analyzing the metabolism of our economy, the usual choice for a measure of resource consumption is the throughput of matter and energy. This, however, cannot be sufficient, since consumption by definition is always relating to the destruction or transformation, and hence a change in quality, not only in quantity, of material or energy flows. Here, an approach is presented that takes the entropy production associated with any process as a measure for the resource consumption of that process. Entropy production is thereby used to approximate the intuitive notion of consumption, which can best be described by the term loss of potential utility. This article delivers theoretical evidence for the validity of this choice, and a second article in a future issue will present an application taken from the metallurgical sector. The related concept of exergy analysis is discussed and compared against the entropy approach.     

Environmental Assessment of Single‐Walled Carbon Nanotube Processes

The environmental assessment of nanomanufacturing during the initial process design phase should lead to the development of competitive, safe, and environmentally responsible engineering and commercialization. Given the potential benefits and concerns regarding the use of single‐walled carbon nanotubes (SWNTs), three SWNT production processes have been investigated to assess their associated environmental impacts. These processes include arc ablation (arc), chemical vapor deposition (CVD), and high‐pressure carbon monoxide (HiPco). Without consideration of the currently unknown impacts of SWNT dispersion or other health impacts, life cycle assessment (LCA) methodology is used to analyze the environmental impact and provide a baseline for the environmental footprint of each manufacturing process. Although the technical attributes of the product resulting from each process may not be fully comparable, this study presents comparisons that show that the life cycle impacts are dominated by energy, specifically the electricity used in production. Under base case yield conditions, HiPco shows the lowest environmental impact, while the arc process has the lowest impact under best case yield conditions.     

Probabilistic Assessment of Industrial Synergistic Systems

A probability‐based method is presented for assessing the reliability of synergistic systems and their ability to cope with the uncertainties often associated with two of a company's main types of activities: those carried out by the manufacturing department, and those carried out by the storage department. This method is based on a model focusing on the dynamic simulation of synergistic flows in terms of the mass balance. It differs from previous material flow analysis tools, which do not take into account the temporary failures occurring at the companies involved and the resulting loss of production capacity. The failure events occurring at any of the companies in a synergistic system may result in various levels of synergy failure and a short supply of resources for other companies. We therefore propose to identify the main factors responsible for a lack of synergy. We developed a dynamic stock simulation model for assessing the reliability of synergistic systems as well as that of the individual companies of a system before and after a synergy is set up. We first confirm the validity of this model by comparing the results with those based on the binomial theorem in system reliability analysis, and we then apply the model to the case of an industrial system. We conclude that companies involved in a synergistic system will inevitably be exposed to a higher risk of resource shortage because of the unsteady synergistic and outsourcing flows on which they depend. More efficient stock management methods would prevent the occurrence of the risks often associated with synergistic flows.