Global nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand outlook

This paper presents a brief overview of the world nitrogen fertilizer demand, highlights trends in the global and regional developments of production capacity and provides a medium-term perspective of the global nitrogen supply/demand balance.     

Global nitrogen fertilizer supply and demand outlook

This paper presents a brief overview of the world nitrogen fertilizer demand, highlights trends in the global and regional developments of production capacity and provides a medium-term perspective of the global nitrogen supply/demand balance.     

全球变化野外控制试验及其在土壤微生物生态学研究中的应用

全球变化是近几十年世界广泛关注的热点之一.土地利用变化和化石能源消耗已引起如温室气体增多、气温升高、降水格局改变等多种形式的变化.这些变化对整个生态系统过程,特别是陆地生态系统碳氮循环过程有着深远影响.自20世纪70年代以来,世界各地已开展大量野外控制试验用以模拟单因子和多因子气候变化的影响,这些研究对解释生态系统响应和适应全球变化的内在机制提供了重要的基础.本文梳理了全球变化控制试验的发展历程,介绍了不同因子模拟控制试验的研究概况及不足之处,重点阐述CO₂倍增、增温、降水和模拟氮沉降等全球变化控制试验在土壤微生物生态学研究中的应用,探析土壤微生物及其介导的生态学过程对全球变化的响应和反馈,并对未来野外控制试验需关注的问题和研究方向进行了展望,为认识气候变化对地下生态系统的影响提供参考.     

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (?0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm-or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world’s most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.     

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However, large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.     

Cereal area and nitrogen use efficiency are drivers of future nitrogen fertilizer consumption

At a global scale, cereal yields and fertilizer N consumption have increased in a near-linear fashion during the past 40 years and are highly correlated with one another. However,large differences exist in historical trends of N fertilizer usage and nitrogen use efficiency (NUE)among regions, countries, and crops. The reasons for these differences must be understood to estimate future N fertilizer requirements. Global nitrogen needs will depend on: (i) changes in cropped cereal area and the associated yield increases required to meet increasing cereal demand from population and income growth, and (ii) changes in NUE at the farm level. Our analysis indicates that the anticipated 38% increase in global cereal demand by 2025 can be met by a 30% increase in N use on cereals, provided that the steady decline in cereal harvest area is halted and the yield response to applied N can be increased by 20%. If losses of cereal cropping area continue at the rate of the past 20 years (-0.33% per year) and NUE cannot be increased substantially, a 60% increase in global N use on cereals would be required to meet cereal demand. Interventions to increase NUE and reduce N losses to the environment must be accomplished at the farm- or field-scale through a combination of improved technologies and carefully crafted local policies that contribute to the adoption of improved N management; uniform regional or national directives are unlikey to be effective at both sustaining yield increases and improving NUE. Examples from several countries show that increases in NUE at rates of 1% per year or more can be achieved if adequate investments are made in research and extension. Failure to arrest the decrease in cereal crop area and to improve NUE in the world's most important agricultural systems will likely cause severe damage to environmental services at local, regional, and global scales due to a large increase in reactive N load in the environment.     

Enzymology under global change: organic nitrogen turnover in alpine and sub-Arctic soils

Understanding global change impacts on the globally important carbon storage in alpine, Arctic and sub-Arctic soils requires knowledge of the mechanisms underlying the balance between plant primary productivity and decomposition. Given that nitrogen availability limits both processes, understanding the response of the soil nitrogen cycle to shifts in temperature and other global change factors is crucial for predicting the fate of cold biome carbon stores. Measurements of soil enzyme activities at different positions of the nitrogen cycling network are an important tool for this purpose. We review a selection of studies that provide data on potential enzyme activities across natural, seasonal and experimental gradients in cold biomes. Responses of enzyme activities to increased nitrogen availability and temperature are diverse and seasonal dynamics are often larger than differences due to experimental treatments, suggesting that enzyme expression is regulated by a combination of interacting factors reflecting both nutrient supply and demand. The extrapolation from potential enzyme activities to prediction of elemental nitrogen fluxes under field conditions remains challenging. Progress in molecular '-omics' approaches may eventually facilitate deeper understanding of the links between soil microbial community structure and biogeochemical fluxes. In the meantime, accounting for effects of the soil spatial structure and in situ variations in pH and temperature, better mapping of the network of enzymatic processes and the identification of rate-limiting steps under different conditions should advance our ability to predict nitrogen fluxes.     

Toward nitrogen neutral biofuel production

Environmental concerns and an increasing global energy demand have spurred scientific research and political action to deliver large-scale production of liquid biofuels. Current biofuel processes and developing approaches have focused on closing the carbon cycle by biological fixation of atmospheric carbon dioxide and conversion of biomass to fuels. To date, these processes have relied on fertilizer produced by the energy-intensive Haber-Bosch process, and have not addressed the global nitrogen cycle and its environmental implications. Recent developments to convert protein to fuel and ammonia may begin to address these problems. In this scheme, recycling ammonia to either plant or algal feedstocks reduces the demand for synthetic fertilizer supplementation. Further development of this technology will realize its advantages of high carbon fixation rates, inexpensive and simple feedstock processing, in addition to reduced fertilizer requirements.     

The nitrogen cascade from agricultural soils to the sea: modelling nitrogen transfers at regional watershed and global scales

The nitrogen cycle of pre-industrial ecosystems has long been remarkably closed, in spite of the high mobility of this element in the atmosphere and hydrosphere. Inter-regional and international commercial exchanges of agricultural goods, which considerably increased after the generalization of the use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers, introduced an additional type of nitrogen mobility, which nowadays rivals the atmospheric and hydrological fluxes in intensity, and causes their enhancement at the local, regional and global scales. Eighty-five per cent of the net anthropogenic input of reactive nitrogen occurs on only 43 per cent of the land area. Modern agriculture based on the use of synthetic fertilizers and the decoupling of crop and animal production is responsible for the largest part of anthropogenic losses of reactive nitrogen to the environment. In terms of levers for better managing the nitrogen cascade, beyond technical improvement of agricultural practices tending to increase nitrogen use efficiency, or environmental engineering management measures to increase nitrogen sinks in the landscape, the need to better localize crop production and livestock breeding, on the one hand, and agriculture and food demand on the other hand, is put forward as a condition to being able to supply food to human populations while preserving environmental resources.     

Global environmental costs of China's thirst for milk

China has an ever‐increasing thirst for milk, with a predicted 3.2‐fold increase in demand by 2050 compared to the production level in 2010. What are the environmental implications of meeting this demand, and what is the preferred pathway? We addressed these questions by using a nexus approach, to examine the interdependencies of increasing milk consumption in China by 2050 and its global impacts, under different scenarios of domestic milk production and importation. Meeting China's milk demand in a business as usual scenario will increase global dairy‐related (China and the leading milk exporting regions) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 35% (from 565 to 764 Tg CO_2eq) and land use for dairy feed production by 32% (from 84 to 111 million ha) compared to 2010, while reactive nitrogen losses from the dairy sector will increase by 48% (from 3.6 to 5.4 Tg nitrogen). Producing all additional milk in China with current technology will greatly increase animal feed import; from 1.9 to 8.5 Tg for concentrates and from 1.0 to 6.2 Tg for forage (alfalfa). In addition, it will increase domestic dairy related GHG emissions by 2.2 times compared to 2010 levels. Importing the extra milk will transfer the environmental burden from China to milk exporting countries; current dairy exporting countries may be unable to produce all additional milk due to physical limitations or environmental preferences/legislation. For example, the farmland area for cattle‐feed production in New Zealand would have to increase by more than 57% (1.3 million ha) and that in Europe by more than 39% (15 million ha), while GHG emissions and nitrogen losses would increase roughly proportionally with the increase of farmland in both regions. We propose that a more sustainable dairy future will rely on high milk demanding regions (such as China) improving their domestic milk and feed production efficiencies up to the level of leading milk producing countries. This will decrease the global dairy related GHG emissions and land use by 12% (90 Tg CO_2eq reduction) and 30% (34 million ha land reduction) compared to the business as usual scenario, respectively. However, this still represents an increase in total GHG emissions of 19% whereas land use will decrease by 8% when compared with 2010 levels, respectively.     

Feedback of carbon and nitrogen cycles enhances carbon sequestration in the terrestrial biosphere

The efforts to explain the ‘missing sink’ for anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO₂) have included in recent years the role of nitrogen as an important constraint for biospheric carbon fluxes. We used the Nitrogen Carbon Interaction Model (NCIM) to investigate patterns of carbon and nitrogen storage in different compartments of the terrestrial biosphere as a consequence of a rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration, in combination with varying levels of nitrogen availability. This model has separate but closely coupled carbon and nitrogen cycles with a focus on soil processes and soil–plant interactions, including an active compartment of soil microorganisms decomposing litter residues and competing with plants for available nitrogen. Biological nitrogen fixation is represented as a function of vegetation nitrogen demand. The model was validated against several global datasets of soil and vegetation carbon and nitrogen pools. Five model experiments were carried out for the modeling periods 1860–2002 and 2002–2100. In these experiments we varied the nitrogen availability using different combinations of biological nitrogen fixation, denitrification, leaching of soluble nitrogen compounds with constant or rising atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Oversupply with nitrogen, in an experiment with nitrogen fixation, but no nitrogen losses, together with constant atmospheric CO₂, led to some carbon sequestration in organismic pools, which was nearly compensated by losses of C from soil organic carbon pools. Rising atmospheric CO₂ always led to carbon sequestration in the biosphere. Considering an open nitrogen cycle including dynamic nitrogen fixation, and nitrogen losses from denitrification and leaching, the carbon sequestration in the biosphere is of a magnitude comparable to current observation based estimates of the ‘missing sink.’ A fertilization feedback between the carbon and nitrogen cycles occurred in this experiment, which was much stronger than the sum of separate influences of high nitrogen supply and rising atmospheric CO₂. The demand‐driven biological nitrogen fixation was mainly responsible for this result. For the modeling period 2002–2100, NCIM predicts continued carbon sequestration in the low range of previously published estimates, combined with a plausible rate of CO₂‐driven biological nitrogen fixation and substantial redistribution of nitrogen from soil to plant pools.     

全球环境变化对典型生态系统的影响研究:现状、挑战与发展趋势

随着全球环境变化和人类活动对生态系统影响的日益加深,生态系统结构和功能发生强烈变化,生态系统提供各类资源和服务的能力在显著下降。在这种背景下,全面认识生态系统的结构功能与全球环境变化的关系已成为当前生态学研究的热点之一。本文综述了全球环境变化对典型生态系统(包括森林生态系统、河口湿地生态系统、城市生态系统)影响以及全球环境变化适应的研究现状,分析研究面临的困难及挑战。在此基础上,提出对未来研究发展趋势的展望。在森林生态系统与全球环境变化研究上,未来应重视能更好模拟现实情景的、多因子、长期的全球环境变化控制试验,并注重不同生物地球化学循环之间的耦合作用。在湿地生态系统与全球环境变化研究上,未来应加强氮沉降、硫沉降及盐水入侵对湿地生态系统碳氮循环的影响,明晰滨海湿地的蓝碳功能,加强极端气候和人类干扰影响下湿地生态系统结构和功能变化及恢复力的研究。在城市生态系统与全球环境变化研究上,未来应深化城市生物地球化学循环机制研究,实现城市生态系统的人本需求侧重与转向,并开展典型地区长期、多要素综合响应研究。在全球环境变化适应研究上,未来应构架定量化、跨尺度的适应性评价体系,加强典型区域/部门的适应性研究以及适应策略实施的可行性研究,注重适应与减缓对策的关联研究及实施的风险评估。期望本综述为我国生态系统与全球环境变化研究提供一些参考。     

Nitrogen fixation in rice systems: state of knowledge and future prospects

Rice is the most important cereal crop. In the next three decades, the world will need to produce about 60% more rice than today's global production to feed the extra billion people. Nitrogen is the major nutrient limiting rice production. Development of fertilizer-responsive varieties in the Green Revolution, coupled with the realization by farmers of the importance of nitrogen, has led to high rates of N fertilizer use on rice. Increased future demand for rice will entail increased application of fertilizer N. Awareness is growing, however, that such an increase in agricultural production needs to be achieved without endangering the environment. To achieve food security through sustainable agriculture, the requirement for fixed nitrogen must increasingly met by biological nitrogen fixation (BNF) rather than by using nitrogen fixed industrially. It is thus imperative to improve existing BNF systems and develop N₂-fixing non-leguminous crops such as rice. Here we review the potentials and constraints of conventional BNF systems in rice agriculture, as well as the prospects of achieving in planta nitrogen fixation in rice.     

Can ectomycorrhizal weathering activity respond to host nutrient demands?

Ectomycorrhizal fungi may make a significant contribution to mineral weathering in temperate and boreal forests. It is important to know how this weathering activity will be affected by the changing nutrient demands of forests impacted by global change and nitrogen deposition. This review examines what is known about how plants sense and respond to nutrient demand and discusses the existing literature on ectomycorrhizal weathering in relation to plant nutrient demand. Plant physiology literature indicates that plants can respond to P limitation by allocating more carbon belowground and increasing root branching in areas of high P availability. Increased expression and upregulation of phosphorus and potassium uptake transporters has been observed under P- and K-limitation, respectively. There is evidence for a negative feedback between Mg- and K-deficiency and belowground carbon allocation. There are very few ectomycorrhizal weathering experiments that explicitly test how weathering activity responds to nutrient demand. Field studies suggest that hyphal colonization of readily available P sources does increase with increased P demand of the host. In microcosm studies there is indirect evidence that weathering activity may increase in response to P, K, or Mg demand. Recommendations are made for how future ectomycorrhizal research can better address this question. More research on how plants sense and respond to nutrient limitation, as well as genomic data from gymnosperms would also aid our understanding of this important aspect of forest ecology.     

Uptake,demand and internal cycling of nitrogen in saplings of Mediterranean<Emphasis Type="Italic"> Quercus</Emphasis> species

Nitrogen uptake, nitrogen demand and internal nitrogen cycling were studied to address the question of the importance of nutrient storage in Quercus species with contrasting leaf longevities. We carried out this study at the whole-plant level with young trees (2-4 years old) of three Mediterranean Quercus species: the evergreen Q. ilex, the marcescent/evergreen Q. faginea, and the deciduous Q. pyrenaica. Seasonal dynamics of nitrogen in all compartments of the plant were followed for 3 years. Nitrogen losses were measured through litter production, herbivory and fine root shedding. Nitrogen uptake was estimated using increments of nitrogen plant content plus accumulative nitrogen losses. Nitrogen uptake was limited to a few months during late winter and spring. Before budbreak, acquired nitrogen was stored in old-leaf cohorts of evergreen and woody compartments. After budbreak, Quercus species relied first on soil uptake and second on nitrogen retranslocation to supply new growth requirements. However, in most cases we found a high asynchrony between nitrogen demand by growing tissues and soil supply, which determined a strong nitrogen retranslocation up to 88.4% of the nitrogen demand throughout leaf expansion. Except for the first year after planting, the above- and underground woody fractions provided more nitrogen to the new tissues than the old leaf cohorts. Differences in the benefit of nitrogen withdrawn from senescent and old leaves were not found between species. We conclude that sink/source interaction strength was determined by differences between nitrogen demand and uptake, regulating internal nutrient cycling at the whole plant level.     

One crop breeding cycle from starvation? How engineering crop photosynthesis for rising CO2 and temperature could be one important route to alleviation

Global climate change is likely to severely impact human food production. This comes at a time when predicted demand for primary foodstuffs by a growing human population and changing global diets is already outpacing a stagnating annual rate of increase in crop productivity. Additionally, the time required by crop breeding and bioengineering to release improved varieties to farmers is substantial, meaning that any crop improvements needed to mitigate food shortages in the 2040s would need to start now. In this perspective, the rationale for improvements in photosynthetic efficiency as a breeding objective for higher yields is outlined. Subsequently, using simple simulation models it is shown how predicted changes in temperature and atmospheric [CO₂] affect leaf photosynthetic rates. The chloroplast accounts for the majority of leaf nitrogen in crops. Within the chloroplast about 25% of nitrogen is invested in the carboxylase, Rubisco, which catalyses the first step of CO₂ assimilation. Most of the remaining nitrogen is invested in the apparatus to drive carbohydrate synthesis and regenerate ribulose-1:5-bisphosphate (RuBP), the CO₂-acceptor molecule at Rubisco. At preindustrial [CO₂], investment in these two aspects may have been balanced resulting in co-limitation. At today''s [CO₂], there appears to be over-investment in Rubisco, and despite the counter-active effects of rising temperature and [CO₂], this imbalance is predicted to worsen with global climate change. By breeding or engineering restored optimality under future conditions increased productivity could be achieved in both tropical and temperate environments without additional nitrogen fertilizer. Given the magnitude of the potential shortfall, better storage conditions, improved crop management and better crop varieties will all be needed. With the short time-scale at which food demand is expected to outpace supplies, all available technologies to improve crop varieties, from classical crop breeding to crop genetic engineering should be employed. This will require vastly increased public and private investment to support translation of first discovery in laboratories to replicated field trials, and an urgent re-evaluation of regulation of crop genetic engineering.     

Nitrogen Use Efficiency of Crop Plants: Physiological Constraints upon Nitrogen Absorption

Current global nitrogen fertilizer use has reached approximately one hundred billion kg per annum. In many agricultural systems, a very substantial portion of this applied nitrogen fertilizer is lost from soil to groundwaters, rivers and oceans. While soil physicochemical properties play a significant part in these losses, there are several characteristic features of plant nitrogen transporter function that facilitate N losses. Nitrate and ammonium efflux from roots result in a reduction of net nitrogen uptake. As external nitrate and ammonium concentrations, respectively, are increased, particularly into the range of concentrations that are typical of agricultural soils, elevated rates of nitrate and ammonium efflux result. The rapid down-regulation of high-affinity influx as plants become nitrogen replete further reduces the root's capacity to acquire external nitrogen; only nitrogen-starved roots absorb with both high capacity and high affinity. The results of studies using molecular biology methods demonstrate that genes encoding nitrate and ammonium transporters are rapidly down-regulated when nitrogen is resupplied to nitrogen-starved plants. Provision of ammonium to roots of plants actively absorbing nitrate imposes a block on nitrate uptake, the extent of which depends on the ammonium concentration, thus further reducing the efficient utilization of soil nitrate. During the daily variation of incoming light and during periods of low incident irradiation (i.e. heavy cloud cover) the expression levels of genes encoding nitrate and ammonium transporters, and rates of nitrate and ammonium uptake, are substantially reduced. Low temperatures reduce growth and nitrogen demand, and appear to discriminate against high-affinity nitrogen influx. In sum, these several factors conspire to limit rates of plant nitrogen uptake to values that are well below capacity. These characteristics of the plant's nitrogen uptake systems facilitate nitrogen losses from soils.     

Thermodynamic constraints on the utility of ecological stoichiometry for explaining global biogeochemical patterns

Carbon and nitrogen cycles are coupled through both stoichiometric requirements for microbial biomass and dissimilatory metabolic processes in which microbes catalyse reduction‐oxidation reactions. Here, we integrate stoichiometric theory and thermodynamic principles to explain the commonly observed trade‐off between high nitrate and high organic carbon concentrations, and the even stronger trade‐off between high nitrate and high ammonium concentrations, across a wide range of aquatic ecosystems. Our results suggest these relationships are the emergent properties of both microbial biomass stoichiometry and the availability of terminal electron acceptors. Because elements with multiple oxidation states (i.e. nitrogen, manganese, iron and sulphur) serve as both nutrients and sources of chemical energy in reduced environments, both assimilative demand and dissimilatory uses determine their concentrations across broad spatial gradients. Conceptual and quantitative models that integrate rather than independently examine thermodynamic, stoichiometric and evolutionary controls on biogeochemical cycling are essential for understanding local to global biogeochemical patterns.     

Structural biology of proteins involved in nitrogen cycling

Microbial metabolic processes drive the global nitrogen cycle through sophisticated and often unique metalloenzymes that facilitate difficult redox reactions at ambient temperature and pressure. Understanding the intricacies of these biological nitrogen transformations requires a detailed knowledge that arises from the combination of a multitude of powerful analytical techniques and functional assays. Recent developments in spectroscopy and structural biology have provided new, powerful tools for addressing existing and emerging questions, which have gained urgency due to the global environmental implications of these fundamental reactions. The present review focuses on the recent contributions of the wider area of structural biology to understanding nitrogen metabolism, opening new avenues for biotechnological applications to better manage and balance the challenges of the global nitrogen cycle.     

Concurrent activation of OsAMT1;2 and OsGOGAT1 in rice leads to enhanced nitrogen use efficiency under nitrogen limitation

Nitrogen (N) is a major factor for plant development and productivity. However, the application of nitrogenous fertilizers generates environmental and economic problems. To cope with the increasing global food demand, the development of rice varieties with high nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) is indispensable for reducing environmental issues and achieving sustainable agriculture. Here, we report that the concomitant activation of the rice (Oryza sativa) Ammonium transporter 1;2 (OsAMT1;2) and Glutamate synthetase 1 (OsGOGAT1) genes leads to increased tolerance to nitrogen limitation and to better ammonium uptake and N remobilization at the whole plant level. We show that the double activation of OsAMT1;2 and OsGOGAT1 increases plant performance in agriculture, providing better N grain filling without yield penalty under paddy field conditions, as well as better grain yield and N content when plants are grown under N llimitations in field conditions. Combining OsAMT1;2 and OsGOGAT1 activation provides a good breeding strategy for improving plant growth, nitrogen use efficiency and grain productivity, especially under nitrogen limitation, through the enhancement of both nitrogen uptake and assimilation.