The nitrogen cycle, scientific uncertainty and policy relevant science

Much of the research on the nitrogen cycle aims to improving scientific understanding but is not focused specifically on removing or reducing the scientific uncertainties that constrain policy makers in the formulation of appropriate responses to old or emerging environmental problems. Policy makers, for example, commonly find it difficult to assess the spatial or temporal importance of the various risks to human and ecosystem health that stem from man's interference with the natural N cycle. This paper will justify this conclusion by reference to the findings of a recent study on non-point pollution from crop production in China. The findings concern the perceived risks of groundwater nitrate to human health; uncertainties about critical NOX levels and their interactions with other pollutants; various other dimensions of man's impact on the N cycle. The paper will go on to suggest a more systematic process or pathway by which scientists can select and design their research in a manner that could give more effective support to policy makers.     

The nitrogen cycle,scientific uncertainty and policy relevant science

Much of the research on the nitrogen cycle aims to improving scientific understanding but is not focused specifically on removing or reducing the scientific uncertainties that constrain policy makers in the formulation of appropriate responses to old or emerging environmental problems. Policy makers, for example, commonly find it difficult to assess the spatial or temporal importance of the various risks to human and ecosystem health that stem from man’s interference with the natural N cycle. This paper will justify this conclusion by reference to the findings of a recent study on non-point pollution from crop production in China. The findings concern the perceived risks of groundwater nitrate to human health; uncertainties about critical NO_x levels and their interactions with other pollutants; various other dimensions of man’s impact on the N cycle. The paper will go on to suggest a more systematic process or pathway by which scientists can select and design their research in a manner that could give more effective support to policy makers.     

The nitrogen cycle,scientific uncertainty and policy relevant science

Much of the research on the nitrogen cycle aims to improving scientific understanding but is not focused specifically on removing or reducing the scientific uncertainties that constrain policy makers in the formulation of appropriate responses to old or emerging environmental problems. Policy makers, for example, commonly find it difficult to assess the spatial or temporal importance of the various risks to human and ecosystem health that stem from man’s interference with the natural N cycle. This paper will justify this conclusion by reference to the findings of a recent study on non-point pollution from crop production in China. The findings concern the perceived risks of groundwater nitrate to human health; uncertainties about critical NO_x levels and their interactions with other pollutants; various other dimensions of man’s impact on the N cycle. The paper will go on to suggest a more systematic process or pathway by which scientists can select and design their research in a manner that could give more effective support to policy makers.

     

Pharmacogenetics and uncertainty: implications for policy makers

Uncertainty for policy makers is not new but the pressure to make decisions under conditions of uncertainty is perhaps greater than ever. The arrival of new scientific developments such as pharmacogenetics offers potentially great benefits (as well as significant risks). They have passionate supporters as well as doubters. The evidence is often extensive but unclear and policy makers may find themselves under pressure to make decisions before they feel that the evidence is compelling. The UK is particularly well placed to play a leading role in the development of pharmacogenetics and is equally well placed to derive the benefits to both health and wealth that could flow from this. However, the uncertainties threaten to overwhelm the capacity of policy makers to act effectively. The uncertainties are both about the context within which the science and delivery of pharmacogenetics is being developed and about the interests that could be served. This paper maps these uncertainties and concludes with some suggestions, drawing on deliberative democracy and futures thinking, as to how policy makers might manage the tensions and dilemmas they face by moving from an unstable, emergent policy arena to a more stable one.     

Alleged misconceptions' distort perceptions of environmental cancer risks.

In a series of papers, Ames and colleagues allege that the scientific and public health communities have perpetuated a series of 'misconceptions' that resulted in inaccurate identification of chemicals that pose potential human cancer risks, and misguided cancer prevention strategies and regulatory policies. They conclude that exposures to industrial and synthetic chemicals represent negligible cancer risks and that animal studies have little or no scientific value for assessing human risks. Their conclusions are based on flawed and untested assumptions. For instance, they claim that synthetic residues on food can be ignored because 99.99% of pesticides humans eat are natural, chemicals in plants are pesticides, and their potential to cause cancer equals that of synthetic pesticides. Similarly, Ames does not offer any convincing scientific evidence to justify discrediting bioassays for identifying human carcinogens. Ironically, their arguments center on a ranking procedure that relies on the same experimental data and extrapolation methods they criticize as being unreliable for evaluating cancer risks. We address their inconsistencies and flaws, and present scientific facts and our perspectives surrounding Ames' nine alleged misconceptions. Our conclusions agree with the International Agency for Research on Cancer, the National Toxicology Program, and other respected scientific organizations: in the absence of human data, animal studies are the most definitive for assessing human cancer risks. Animal data should not be ignored, and precautions should be taken to lessen human exposures. Dismissing animal carcinogenicity findings would lead to human cancer cases as the only means of demonstrating carcinogenicity of environmental agents. This is unacceptable public health policy.     

Economic analysis as a basis for large-scale nitrogen control decisions: reducing nitrogen loads to the Gulf of Mexico

Economic analysis can be a guide to determining the level of actions taken to reduce nitrogen (N) losses and reduce environmental risk in a cost-effective manner while also allowing consideration of relative costs of controls to various groups. The biophysical science of N control, especially from nonpoint sources such as agriculture, is not certain. Widespread precise data do not exist for a river basin (or often even for a watershed) that couples management practices and other actions to reduce nonpoint N losses with specific delivery from the basin. The causal relationships are clouded by other factors influencing N flows, such as weather, temperature, and soil characteristics. Even when the science is certain, economic analysis has its own sets of uncertainties and simplifying economic assumptions. The economic analysis of the National Hypoxia Assessment provides an example of economic analysis based on less than complete scientific information that can still provide guidance to policy makers about the economic consequences of alternative approaches. One critical value to policy makers comes from bounding the economic magnitude of the consequences of alternative actions. Another value is the identification of impacts outside the sphere of initial concerns. Such analysis can successfully assess relative impacts of different degrees of control of N losses within the basin as well as outside the basin. It can demonstrate the extent to which costs of control of any one action increase with the intensity of application of control.     

Health and environment

The impact of the environment (air, water, food pollution) on health is a major concern in contemporary society. Unfortunately, there are relatively few objective epidemiological data on this subject and their accuracy is limited. Risks are often not quantified, whereas in public health the quantitative assessment of the various risks and benefits must provide the bases for a global strategy. Actual risks should be distinguished from putative risks and, when the risks are putative, an effort should be made to ascertain the upper and lower limits of the risk. The validity of a linear no threshold relationship for assessing putative risks should be discussed and, whenever appropriate, other relationships should be considered. Since emotional reactions often pervade environmental issues, which in turn are exploited for political or commercial reasons, it is not surprising that any statement or action may provoke violent debate. It is serious to underestimate the importance of a risk, since appropriate measures may not be put in place. However, it is equally serious to overestimate it because this can provoke unjustified fears, a pervasive unease, and a rejection of certain technologies, even to the point of discrediting science. It can lead therefore to a questioning of progress by instilling fears about any innovation, as well as facilitating the manipulation of public opinion for financial or ideological reasons, and finally to distortions in budget allocations and public health actions. Confronted with this situation, the Academy's role should be threefold. a) Whenever necessary, point out the need for an increase in appropriate fundamental research. When epidemiological data are uncertain, analyse the cause of these uncertainties and advocate appropriate development in statistical methodologies and epidemiological research, which could ascertain the upper limit of the putative risk. The lack of knowledge often results in public anxiety; this reaction should be investigated and psychosociological research must be encouraged and supported. b) Inform the scientific community and the public; fight against misinformation and sensationalism in the news, and take advantage of the Internet to this end. Encourage openness and transparency in the preparation of scientific reports and dialogue with the stakeholders. c) Better define the role and the place of experts, ensure their independence, monitor their competence and make sure they represent the various fields involved. When reports are conflicting, the Academy should be ready to organize a forum for analysing the roots of these disagreements and to delineate the limits of the uncertainties.     

Commentary: Barriers and Opportunities to Changing the Research Agenda to Support Precaution and Primary Prevention

Conceptual research to define the Precautionary Principle and its rôle in science, science policy, and public health is making substantial progress. In September 2001, participants at the International Summit on Science and the Precautionary Principle developed a vision for science to address the complexity of contemporary health risks in a way that could lead to more precautionary, preventive decisions under uncertainty. Its components include: (1) a more effective linkage between research on hazards and research on primary prevention; (2) increased use of interdisciplinary approaches including better integration of qualitative and quantitative data; (3) innovative methods for analyzing cumulative and interactive effects, populations and systems and vulnerable sub-populations; (4) systems for continuous monitoring to avoid unintended consequences of actions and to identify early warnings of risks; (5) more comprehensive techniques for analyzing and communicating hazards and uncertainties; and (6) a more dynamic interface between science and policy. This article addresses barriers and opportunities to the practical application of this vision for science. Scientists in many fields have recognized the need for innovative approaches and tools to address increasingly complex, uncertain risks of a global scale. While opportunities to apply precautionary concepts in the research agenda exist, public health scientists must be cognizant of current and emerging barriers in the research agenda that balance the research focus on characterizing proximate causal mechanisms of disease, to the detriment of research and policy to support primary prevention.     

Shared Cultural History as a Predictor of Political and Economic Changes among Nation States

Political and economic risks arise from social phenomena that spread within and across countries. Regime changes, protest movements, and stock market and default shocks can have ramifications across the globe. Quantitative models have made great strides at predicting these events in recent decades but incorporate few explicitly measured cultural variables. However, in recent years cultural evolutionary theory has emerged as a major paradigm to understand the inheritance and diffusion of human cultural variation. Here, we combine these two strands of research by proposing that measures of socio-linguistic affiliation derived from language phylogenies track variation in cultural norms that influence how political and economic changes diffuse across the globe. First, we show that changes over time in a country’s democratic or autocratic character correlate with simultaneous changes among their socio-linguistic affiliations more than with changes of spatially proximate countries. Second, we find that models of changes in sovereign default status favor including socio-linguistic affiliations in addition to spatial data. These findings suggest that better measurement of cultural networks could be profoundly useful to policy makers who wish to diversify commercial, social, and other forms of investment across political and economic risks on an international scale.     

A pragmatic cluster randomised trial evaluating three implementation interventions

Background

One of the most consistent findings from clinical and health services research is the failure to translate research into practice and policy. As a result of these evidence-practice and policy gaps, patients fail to benefit optimally from advances in healthcare and are exposed to unnecessary risks of iatrogenic harms, and healthcare systems are exposed to unnecessary expenditure resulting in significant opportunity costs. Over the last decade, there has been increasing international policy and research attention on how to reduce the evidence-practice and policy gap. In this paper, we summarise the current concepts and evidence to guide knowledge translation activities, defined as T2 research (the translation of new clinical knowledge into improved health). We structure the article around five key questions: what should be transferred; to whom should research knowledge be transferred; by whom should research knowledge be transferred; how should research knowledge be transferred; and, with what effect should research knowledge be transferred?

Discussion

We suggest that the basic unit of knowledge translation should usually be up-to-date systematic reviews or other syntheses of research findings. Knowledge translators need to identify the key messages for different target audiences and to fashion these in language and knowledge translation products that are easily assimilated by different audiences. The relative importance of knowledge translation to different target audiences will vary by the type of research and appropriate endpoints of knowledge translation may vary across different stakeholder groups. There are a large number of planned knowledge translation models, derived from different disciplinary, contextual (i.e., setting), and target audience viewpoints. Most of these suggest that planned knowledge translation for healthcare professionals and consumers is more likely to be successful if the choice of knowledge translation strategy is informed by an assessment of the likely barriers and facilitators. Although our evidence on the likely effectiveness of different strategies to overcome specific barriers remains incomplete, there is a range of informative systematic reviews of interventions aimed at healthcare professionals and consumers (i.e., patients, family members, and informal carers) and of factors important to research use by policy makers.

Summary

There is a substantial (if incomplete) evidence base to guide choice of knowledge translation activities targeting healthcare professionals and consumers. The evidence base on the effects of different knowledge translation approaches targeting healthcare policy makers and senior managers is much weaker but there are a profusion of innovative approaches that warrant further evaluation.     

EMF recommendations specific for children?

When discussing health risks for children due to electromagnetic fields it is crucial to translate scientific knowledge both into adequate protection and precautionary measures for the general public and, more particularly into specific recommendations for children. It is often aimed at influencing health-related attitudes and behaviour by means of information about health affecting behaviour, health risk factors, and health promoting possibilities. Children have to be treated differently from adults in addressing their ability and willingness to modify behaviour and their competence to comprehend cognitively the sense of behavioural recommendations. Research has shown that adults can be motivated to adjust their own behaviour in order to protect their children or to be role models for their children. Hence one way to modify children’s behaviour is to address the parents and care persons. Generally education in the family, the social environment and in peer groups, nursery school and at school plays an important role in forming and influencing individual behaviour. The age of the target group has also to be taken into consideration.An important question is how to deal with scientific uncertainties when expressing EMF recommendations for children. Accentuating scientific uncertainties may under certain circumstances raise risk awareness. This can be an intended effect. But the expression of scientific uncertainties can also lead to unintended consequences in parent’s behaviour or even senseless dealing with the respective EMF source.The paper points out relevant aspects of risk communication regarding EMF and children and suggests how recommendations for children might be designed.     

Scientific and societal considerations in selecting assessment endpoints for environmental decision making

It is sometimes argued that, from an ecological point of view, population-, community-, and ecosystem-level endpoints are more relevant than individual-level endpoints for assessing the risks posed by human activities to the sustainability of natural resources. Yet society values amenities provided by natural resources that are not necessarily evaluated or protected by assessment tools that focus on higher levels of biological organization. For example, human-caused stressors can adversely affect recreational opportunities that are valued by society even in the absence of detectable population-level reductions in biota. If protective measures are not initiated until effects at higher levels of biological organization are apparent, natural resources that are ecologically important or highly valued by the public may not be adequately protected. Thus, environmental decision makers should consider both scientific and societal factors in selecting endpoints for ecological risk assessments. At the same time, it is important to clearly distinguish the role of scientists, which is to evaluate ecological effects, from the role of policy makers, which is to determine how to address the uncertainty in scientific assessment in making environmental decisions and to judge what effects are adverse based on societal values and policy goals.     

The big ecological questions inhibiting effective environmental management in Australia

The need to improve environmental management in Australia is urgent because human health, well‐being and social stability all depend ultimately on maintenance of life‐supporting ecological processes. Ecological science can inform this effort, but when issues are socially and economically complex the inclination is to wait for science to provide answers before acting. Increasingly, managers and policy‐makers will be called on to use the present state of scientific knowledge to supply reasonable inferences for action based on imperfect knowledge. Hence, one challenge is to use existing ecological knowledge more effectively; a second is to tackle the critical unanswered ecological questions. This paper identifies areas of environmental management that are profoundly hindered by an inability of science to answer basic questions, in contrast to those areas where knowledge is not the major barrier to policy development and management. Of the 22 big questions identified herein, more than half are directly related to climate change. Several of the questions concern our limited understanding of the dynamics of marine systems. There is enough information already available to develop effective policy and management to address several significant ecological issues. We urge ecologists to make better use of existing knowledge in dialogue with policy‐makers and land managers. Because the challenges are enormous, ecologists will increasingly be engaging a wide range of other disciplines to help identify pathways towards a sustainable future.     

Realizing the promise of population biobanks: a new model for translation

The promise of science lies in expectations of its benefits to societies and is matched by expectations of the realisation of the significant public investment in that science. In this paper, we undertake a methodological analysis of the science of biobanking and a sociological analysis of translational research in relation to biobanking. Part of global and local endeavours to translate raw biomedical evidence into practice, biobanks aim to provide a platform for generating new scientific knowledge to inform development of new policies, systems and interventions to enhance the public’s health. Effectively translating scientific knowledge into routine practice, however, involves more than good science. Although biobanks undoubtedly provide a fundamental resource for both clinical and public health practice, their potentiating ontology—that their outputs are perpetually a promise of scientific knowledge generation—renders translation rather less straightforward than drug discovery and treatment implementation. Biobanking science, therefore, provides a perfect counterpoint against which to test the bounds of translational research. We argue that translational research is a contextual and cumulative process: one that is necessarily dynamic and interactive and involves multiple actors. We propose a new multidimensional model of translational research which enables us to imagine a new paradigm: one that takes us from bench to bedside to backyard and beyond, that is, attentive to the social and political context of translational science, and is cognisant of all the players in that process be they researchers, health professionals, policy makers, industry representatives, members of the public or research participants, amongst others.     

Getting ready for malaria elimination: a check list of critical issues to consider

In recent years, a renewed interest in malaria elimination and eradication has emerged and seems to be rooting in the minds of the scientific community, public health specialists, funding bodies, policy makers and politicians. Malaria eradication will certainly benefit from improved and innovative tools; notwithstanding novel knowledge in fields ranging from basic science to mathematical modelling and health systems research. However, the elimination of malaria also encompasses a broad range of essential aspects that countries and other actors need to consider when thinking of embarking on such an adventure, including the implementation of innovative strategies, the ability to incorporate the most up-to-date evidence into policy, the integration of malaria into the broader health agenda, the strengthening of surveillance and health systems, capacity building, funding, advocacy and, very importantly, research. While in some cases this enthusiasm is clearly justified, some countries are still a long way from realistically advancing towards elimination. This paper attempts to provide guidance on all the necessary issues that should be considered when initiating a malaria elimination program.     

Science,Politics and Policy: How Michiganders think about the Risks Facing the Great Lakes

The Great Lakes region is an important ecological asset for the United States, yet studies show that several environmental risks threaten its viability. As a result, it is important to respond to these risks with effective policies. When and how policy is implemented often depends on public opinion and perceptions; yet, we understand little about how individuals from the Great Lakes region construct opinions about the threats facing the lakes. We seek to understand how individuals from the state of Michigan form opinions on three risks to the lakes: invasive Asian carp, climate change, and offshore drilling. To do this, we evaluate the utility of two dominant models of environmental opinion formation: trust and deference to scientific authority, and partisan bias and motivated reasoning. We find that when issues have been politicized, opinion is greatly influenced by political factors like partisanship but that trust and deference as well as underlying environmental attitudes play a more important role for issues that have not been politicized. We discuss the implications of these findings in terms of policy and communication in Michigan, arguing that if we want Michiganders to support policy consistent with science, they must view risk in ways that are consistent with scientific consensus. For that to happen, advocates and policy makers must focus on reducing the political rhetoric around these threats, developing communication that taps into underlying trust and deference to science, and using underlying attitudes about the role of government in environmental protection to promote environmental policy.     

Beyond EBM: new directions for evidence-based public health

Public health researchers, policy makers, and practitioners agree that health is the outcome of interactions between biological, behavioral, and social determinants. Nonetheless, institutional patterns of research funding and practice remain obstacles to generating research at and between each of these levels. These practices are embedded in historic assumptions about the nature of reality and how it can best be understood. Current debates over the criteria for evaluating public health research have centered on the applicability of the clinical evidence-based medicine (EBM) model to the field of public health. The EBM hierarchy, which is based on traditional scientific assumptions about causality, is insufficient and potentially harmful as the basis for evaluating research on the determinants of health. Yet those who have put forward a critique of EBM have failed to develop a plausible alternative. Critical realism, based on the philosophy of Roy Bhaskar, may provide a way out of the current stalemate, enabling public health researchers from various disciplines and research paradigms to work together, bringing the full weight of scientific knowledge to bear on increasingly complex and global public health problems.     

Effectively Communicating the Uncertainties Surrounding Ebola Virus Transmission

The current Ebola virus outbreak has highlighted the uncertainties surrounding many aspects of Ebola virus virology, including routes of transmission. The scientific community played a leading role during the outbreak—potentially, the largest of its kind—as many of the questions surrounding ebolaviruses have only been interrogated in the laboratory. Scientists provided an invaluable resource for clinicians, public health officials, policy makers, and the lay public in understanding the progress of Ebola virus disease and the continuing outbreak. Not all of the scientific communication, however, was accurate or effective. There were multiple instances of published articles during the height of the outbreak containing potentially misleading scientific language that spurred media overreaction and potentially jeopardized preparedness and policy decisions at critical points. Here, we use articles declaring the potential for airborne transmission of Ebola virus as a case study in the inaccurate reporting of basic science, and we provide recommendations for improving the communication about unknown aspects of disease during public health crises.     

Source analysis and health risk-assessment of ambient volatile organic compounds in automobile manufacturing processes

Abstract

The sources and process-specific emission of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) from an automobile manufacturing plant in Beijing, China were explored and monitored to assess the health risk from VOCs to workers of the automobile manufacturing plant. Eleven VOCs were detected in the air samples collected from the 12 working posts of five workshops of the automobile manufacturing plant using a meteorological chromatographic analytical method. The health risks exposed to VOCs were assessed using the probabilistic risk-assessment method, and the sensitivity and uncertainty analysis were conducted using the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results showed that VOCs mainly originated from the use and volatilization of chemical raw materials. The total carcinogenic risks were large owing to the high concentrations of benzene and ethylbenzene in various processes, suggesting a definite risk. The total non-carcinogenic risk in the paint shop was the highest, and the topcoat post, mixing paint post and basecoat post contributed to more than 70% of the total risk of this workshop. Exposure duration and concentration of VOCs had a greater impact on the health risk. These research findings may provide scientific basis for policy toward improving the health status of workers in automobile manufacturing enterprise in China.     

Future research in weight bias: What next?

The 2015 Canadian Weight Bias Summit disseminated the newest research advances and brought together 40 experts, stakeholders, and policy makers in various disciplines in health, education, and public policy to identify future research directions in weight bias. In this paper we aim to share the results of the Summit as well as encourage international and interdisciplinary research collaborations in weight bias reduction. Consensus emerged on six research areas that warrant further investigation in weight bias: costs, causes, measurement, qualitative research and lived experience, interventions, and learning from other models of discrimination. These discussions highlighted three key lessons that were informed by the Summit, namely: language matters, the voices of people living with obesity should be incorporated, and interdisciplinary stakeholders should be included.