An evaluation of power and type I error of single-nucleotide polymorphism transmission/disequilibrium-based statistical methods under different family structures, missing parental data, and population stratification

Researchers conducting family-based association studies have a wide variety of transmission/disequilibrium (TD)-based methods to choose from, but few guidelines exist in the selection of a particular method to apply to available data. Using a simulation study design, we compared the power and type I error of eight popular TD-based methods under different family structures, frequencies of missing parental data, genetic models, and population stratifications. No method was uniformly most powerful under all conditions, but type I error was appropriate for nearly every test statistic under all conditions. Power varied widely across methods, with a 46.5% difference in power observed between the most powerful and the least powerful method when 50% of families consisted of an affected sib pair and one parent genotyped under an additive genetic model and a 35.2% difference when 50% of families consisted of a single affection-discordant sibling pair without parental genotypes available under an additive genetic model. Methods were generally robust to population stratification, although some slightly less so than others. The choice of a TD-based test statistic should be dependent on the predominant family structure ascertained, the frequency of missing parental genotypes, and the assumed genetic model.     

Adding further power to the Haseman and Elston method for detecting linkage in larger sibships: weighting sums and differences

Haseman and Elston (H-E) proposed a robust test to detect linkage between a quantitative trait and a genetic marker. In their method the squared sib-pair trait difference is regressed on the estimated proportion of alleles at a locus shared identical by descent by sib pairs. This method has recently been improved by changing the dependent variable from the squared difference to the mean-corrected product of the sib-pair trait values, a significantly positive regression indicating linkage. Because situations arise in which the original test is more powerful, a further improvement of the H-E method occurs when the dependent variable is changed to a weighted average of the squared sib-pair trait difference and the squared sib-pair mean-corrected trait sum. Here we propose an optimal method of performing this weighting for larger sibships, allowing for the correlation between pairs within a sibship. The optimal weights are inversely proportional to the residual variances obtained from the two different regressions based on the squared sib-pair trait differences and the squared sib-pair mean-corrected trait sums, respectively, allowing for correlations among sib pairs. The proposed method is compared with the existing extension of the H-E approach for larger sibships. Control of the type I error probabilities for sibships of any size can be improved by using a generalized estimating equation approach and the robust sandwich estimate of the variance, or a Monte-Carlo permutation test.     

A score test for the linkage analysis of qualitative and quantitative traits based on identity by descent data from sib-pairs

We propose a general likelihood-based approach to the linkage analysis of qualitative and quantitative traits using identity by descent (IBD) data from sib-pairs. We consider the likelihood of IBD data conditional on phenotypes and test the null hypothesis of no linkage between a marker locus and a gene influencing the trait using a score test in the recombination fraction theta between the two loci. This method unifies the linkage analysis of qualitative and quantitative traits into a single inferential framework, yielding a simple and intuitive test statistic. Conditioning on phenotypes avoids unrealistic random sampling assumptions and allows sib-pairs from differing ascertainment mechanisms to be incorporated into a single likelihood analysis. In particular, it allows the selection of sib-pairs based on their trait values and the analysis of only those pairs having the most informative phenotypes. The score test is based on the full likelihood, i.e. the likelihood based on all phenotype data rather than just differences of sib-pair phenotypes. Considering only phenotype differences, as in Haseman and Elston (1972) and Kruglyak and Lander (1995), may result in important losses in power. The linkage score test is derived under general genetic models for the trait, which may include multiple unlinked genes. Population genetic assumptions, such as random mating or linkage equilibrium at the trait loci, are not required. This score test is thus particularly promising for the analysis of complex human traits. The score statistic readily extends to accommodate incomplete IBD data at the test locus, by using the hidden Markov model implemented in the programs MAPMAKER/SIBS and GENEHUNTER (Kruglyak and Lander, 1995; Kruglyak et al., 1996). Preliminary simulation studies indicate that the linkage score test generally matches or outperforms the Haseman-Elston test, the largest gains in power being for selected samples of sib-pairs with extreme phenotypes.     

Computing power and sample size for case-control association studies with copy number polymorphism: application of mixture-based likelihood ratio test

Recent studies suggest that copy number polymorphisms (CNPs) may play an important role in disease susceptibility and onset. Currently, the detection of CNPs mainly depends on microarray technology. For case-control studies, conventionally, subjects are assigned to a specific CNP category based on the continuous quantitative measure produced by microarray experiments, and cases and controls are then compared using a chi-square test of independence. The purpose of this work is to specify the likelihood ratio test statistic (LRTS) for case-control sampling design based on the underlying continuous quantitative measurement, and to assess its power and relative efficiency (as compared to the chi-square test of independence on CNP counts). The sample size and power formulas of both methods are given. For the latter, the CNPs are classified using the Bayesian classification rule. The LRTS is more powerful than this chi-square test for the alternatives considered, especially alternatives in which the at-risk CNP categories have low frequencies. An example of the application of the LRTS is given for a comparison of CNP distributions in individuals of Caucasian or Taiwanese ethnicity, where the LRTS appears to be more powerful than the chi-square test, possibly due to misclassification of the most common CNP category into a less common category.     

A statistical test for detecting geographic subdivision.

A statistical test for detecting genetic differentiation of subpopulations is described that uses molecular variation in samples of DNA sequences from two or more localities. The statistical significance of the test is determined with Monte Carlo simulations. The power of the test to detect genetic differentiation in a selectively neutral Wright-Fisher island model depends on both sample size and the rates of migration, mutation, and recombination. It is found that the power of the test is substantial with samples of size 50, when 4Nm less than 10, where N is the subpopulation size and m is the fraction of migrants in each subpopulation each generation. More powerful tests are obtained with genes with recombination than with genes without recombination.     

Monte Carlo simulations on marker grouping and ordering

Four global algorithms, maximum likelihood (ML), sum of adjacent LOD score (SALOD), sum of adjacent recombinant fractions (SARF) and product of adjacent recombinant fraction (PARF), and one approximation algorithm, seriation (SER), were used to compare the marker ordering efficiencies for correctly given linkage groups based on doubled haploid (DH) populations. The Monte Carlo simulation results indicated the marker ordering powers for the five methods were almost identical. High correlation coefficients were greater than 0.99 between grouping power and ordering power, indicating that all these methods for marker ordering were reliable. Therefore, the main problem for linkage analysis was how to improve the grouping power. Since the SER approach provided the advantage of speed without losing ordering power, this approach was used for detailed simulations. For more generality, multiple linkage groups were employed, and population size, linkage cutoff criterion, marker spacing pattern (even or uneven), and marker spacing distance (close or loose) were considered for obtaining acceptable grouping powers. Simulation results indicated that the grouping power was related to population size, marker spacing distance, and cutoff criterion. Generally, a large population size provided higher grouping power than small population size, and closely linked markers provided higher grouping power than loosely linked markers. The cutoff criterion range for achieving acceptable grouping power and ordering power differed for varying cases; however, combining all situations in this study, a cutoff criterion ranging from 50 cM to 60 cM was recommended for achieving acceptable grouping power and ordering power for different cases.     

Effect of recombination on the accuracy of the likelihood method for detecting positive selection at amino acid sites

Maximum-likelihood methods based on models of codon substitution accounting for heterogeneous selective pressures across sites have proved to be powerful in detecting positive selection in protein-coding DNA sequences. Those methods are phylogeny based and do not account for the effects of recombination. When recombination occurs, such as in population data, no unique tree topology can describe the evolutionary history of the whole sequence. This violation of assumptions raises serious concerns about the likelihood method for detecting positive selection. Here we use computer simulation to evaluate the reliability of the likelihood-ratio test (LRT) for positive selection in the presence of recombination. We examine three tests based on different models of variable selective pressures among sites. Sequences are simulated using a coalescent model with recombination and analyzed using codon-based likelihood models ignoring recombination. We find that the LRT is robust to low levels of recombination (with fewer than three recombination events in the history of a sample of 10 sequences). However, at higher levels of recombination, the type I error rate can be as high as 90%, especially when the null model in the LRT is unrealistic, and the test often mistakes recombination as evidence for positive selection. The test that compares the more realistic models M7 (beta) against M8 (beta and omega) is more robust to recombination, where the null model M7 allows the positive selection pressure to vary between 0 and 1 (and so does not account for positive selection), and the alternative model M8 allows an additional discrete class with omega = d(N)/d(S) that could be estimated to be >1 (and thus accounts for positive selection). Identification of sites under positive selection by the empirical Bayes method appears to be less affected than the LRT by recombination.     

A tournament of linkage tests in complex inheritance

The performance of some weakly parametric linkage tests in common use was compared on 200 replicates of oligogenic inheritance from Genetic Analysis Workshop 10. Each random sample for the quantitative trait was dichotomized at different thresholds and also selected through 2 affected sibs, generating 8 combinations of sample and variable. The variance component program SOLAR performed best with a continuous trait, even in selected samples, when the population mean was used. The sib-pair program SIBPAL2 was best in most other cases when the phenotype product, population mean, and empirical estimates of pair correlations were used. The BETA program that introduced phenotype products was slightly more powerful than maximum likelihood scores under the null hypothesis and approached but did not exceed SIBPAL2 under its optimal conditions. Type I errors generally exceeded expectations from a chi(2) test, but were conservative with respect to bounds on lods. All methods can be improved by use of the population mean, empirical correlations, logistic representation for affection status, and correct lods for samples that favour the null hypothesis. It remains uncertain whether all information can be extracted by weakly parametric methods and whether correction for ascertainment bias demands a strongly parametric model. Performance on a standard set of simulated data is indispensable for recognising optimal methods.     

Detecting Specific Populations in Mixtures

Mixed stock analysis (MSA) estimates the relative contributions of distinct populations in a mixture of organisms. Increasingly, MSA is used to judge the presence or absence of specific populations in specific mixture samples. This is commonly done by inspecting the bootstrap confidence interval of the contribution of interest. This method has a number of statistical deficiencies, including almost zero power to detect small contributions even if the population has perfect identifiability. We introduce a more powerful method based on the likelihood ratio test and compare both methods in a simulation demonstration using a 17 population baseline of sockeye salmon, Oncorhynchus nerka, from the Kenai River, Alaska, watershed. Power to detect a nonzero contribution will vary with the population(s) identifiability relative to the rest of the baseline, the contribution size, mixture sample size, and analysis method. The demonstration shows that the likelihood ratio method is always more powerful than the bootstrap method, the two methods only being equal when both display 100% power. Power declines for both methods as contribution declines, but it declines faster and goes to zero for the bootstrap method. Power declines quickly for both methods as population identifiability declines, though the likelihood ratio test is able to capitalize on the presence of 'perfect identification' characteristics, such as private alleles. Given the baseline-specific nature of detection power, researchers are encouraged to conduct a priori power analyses similar to the current demonstration when planning their applications.     

Using molecular markers to map multiple quantitative trait loci: models for backcross,recombinant inbred,and doubled haploid progeny

Summary To maximize parameter estimation efficiency and statistical power and to estimate epistasis, the parameters of multiple quantitative trait loci (QTLs) must be simultaneously estimated. If multiple QTL affect a trait, then estimates of means of QTL genotypes from individual locus models are statistically biased. In this paper, I describe methods for estimating means of QTL genotypes and recombination frequencies between marker and quantitative trait loci using multilocus backcross, doubled haploid, recombinant inbred, and testcross progeny models. Expected values of marker genotype means were defined using no double or multiple crossover frequencies and flanking markers for linked and unlinked quantitative trait loci. The expected values for a particular model comprise a system of nonlinear equations that can be solved using an interative algorithm, e.g., the Gauss-Newton algorithm. The solutions are maximum likelihood estimates when the errors are normally distributed. A linear model for estimating the parameters of unlinked quantitative trait loci was found by transforming the nonlinear model. Recombination frequency estimators were defined using this linear model. Certain means of linked QTLs are less efficiently estimated than means of unlinked QTLs.     

Comparison of multivariate tests for genetic linkage

OBJECTIVES: Multivariate tests for linkage can provide improved power over univariate tests but the type I error rates and comparative power of commonly used methods have not previously been compared. Here we studied the behavior of bivariate formulations of the variance component (VC) and Haseman-Elston (H-E) approaches. METHODS: We compared through simulation studies the bivariate H-E test with the unconstrained bivariate VC approach and with a VC approach in which the major-gene correlation is constrained to +/-1. We also compared these methods to univariate methods. RESULTS: Bivariate approaches are more powerful than univariate analyses unless the traits are very highly positively correlated. The power of the bivariate H-E test was less than the VC procedures. The constrained test was often less powerful than the unconstrained test. The empirical distributions of the bivariate H-E test and the unconstrained bivariate VC test conformed with asymptotic distributions for samples of 100 or more sibships of size 4. CONCLUSIONS: The unconstrained VC test is valuable for testing for preliminary linkages using multivariate phenotypes. The bivariate H-E test was less powerful than the bivariate VC tests.     

Statistical properties of affected sib-pair linkage tests

Genetic linkage analysis is a powerful tool for the identification of disease susceptibility loci. Among the most commonly applied genetic linkage strategies are affected sib-pair tests, but the statistical properties of these tests have not been well characterized. Here, we present a study of the distribution of affected sib-pair tests comparing the type I error rate and the power of the mean test and the proportion test, which are the most commonly used, along with a novel exact test. In contrast to existing literature, our findings showed that the mean and proportion tests have inflated type I error rates, especially when used with small samples. We developed and applied corrections to the tests which provide an excellent adjustment to the type I error rate for both small and large samples. We also developed a novel approach to identify the areas of higher power for the mean test versus the proportion test, providing a wider and simpler comparison with fewer assumptions about parameter values than existing approaches require.     

A novel method with improved power to detect recombination hotspots from polymorphism data reveals multiple hotspots in human genes

We introduce a new method for detection of recombination hotspots from population genetic data. This method is based on (a) defining an (approximate) penalized likelihood for how recombination rate varies with physical position and (b) maximizing this penalized likelihood over possible sets of recombination hotspots. Simulation results suggest that this is a more powerful method for detection of hotspots than are existing methods. We apply the method to data from 89 genes sequenced in African American and European American populations. We find many genes with multiple hotspots, and some hotspots show evidence of being population-specific. Our results suggest that hotspots are randomly positioned within genes and could be as frequent as one per 30 kb.     

SequenceLDhot: detecting recombination hotspots

MOTIVATION: There is much local variation in recombination rates across the human genome--with the majority of recombination occurring in recombination hotspots--short regions of around approximately 2 kb in length that have much higher recombination rates than neighbouring regions. Knowledge of this local variation is important, e.g. in the design and analysis of association studies for disease genes. Population genetic data, such as that generated by the HapMap project, can be used to infer the location of these hotspots. We present a new, efficient and powerful method for detecting recombination hotspots from population data. RESULTS: We compare our method with four current methods for detecting hotspots. It is orders of magnitude quicker, and has greater power, than two related approaches. It appears to be more powerful than HotspotFisher, though less accurate at inferring the precise positions of the hotspot. It was also more powerful than LDhot in some situations: particularly for weaker hotspots (10-40 times the background rate) when SNP density is lower (< 1/kb). AVAILABILITY: Program, data sets, and full details of results are available at: http://www.maths.lancs.ac.uk/~fearnhea/Hotspot.     

Genotoxicity of neutrons in Drosophila melanogaster. Somatic mutation and recombination induced by reactor neutrons

This paper describes the observation of a direct relationship between the absorbed doses of neutrons and the frequencies of somatic mutation and recombination using the wing somatic mutation and recombination test (SMART) of Drosophila melanogaster. This test was used for evaluating the biological effects induced by neutrons from the Triga Mark III reactor of Mexico. Two different reactor power levels were used, 300 and 1000 kW, and two absorbed doses were tested for each power level: 1.6 and 3.2 Gy for 300 kW and 0.84 and 1.7 Gy for 1000 kW. A linear relationship was observed between the absorbed dose and the somatic mutation and recombination frequencies. Furthermore, these frequencies were dependent on larval age: In 96-h-old larvae, the frequencies were increased considerably but the sizes of the spots were smaller than in 72-h-old larvae. The analysis of the balancer-heterozygous progeny showed a linear absorbed dose- response relationship, although the responses were clearly lower than found in the marker-trans-heterozygous flies. Approximately 65% of the genotoxicity observed is due to recombinational events. The results of the study indicate that thermal and fast neutrons are both mutagenic and recombinagenic in the D. melanogaster wing SMART, and that the frequencies are dependent on neutron dose, reactor power, and the age of the treated larvae.     

Numerical comparison between powers of maximum likelihood and analysis of variance methods for QTL detection in progeny test designs: the case of monogenic inheritance

Simulations are used to compare four statistics for the detection of a quantitative trait locus (QTL) in daughter and grand-daughter designs as defined by Soller and Genizi (1978) and Weller et al. (1990): (1) the Fisher test of a linear model including a marker effect within sire or grand-sire effect; (2) the likelihood ratio test of a segregation analysis without the information given by the marker; (3) the likelihood ratio test of a segregation analysis considering the information from the marker; and (4) the lod score which is the likelihood ratio test of absence of linkage between the marker and the QTL. In all cases the two segregation analyses are more powerful for QTL detection than are either the linear method or the lod score. The differences in power are generally limited but may be significant (in a ratio of 1 to 3 or 4) when the QTL has a small effect (0.2 standard deviations) and is not closely linked to the marker (recombination rate of 20% or more).     

Measuring Meiotic Crossovers via Multi-Locus Genotyping of Single Pollen Grains in Barley

The detection of meiotic crossovers in crop plants currently relies on scoring DNA markers in a segregating population or cytological visualization. We investigated the feasibility of using flow-sorted haploid nuclei, Phi29 DNA polymerase-based whole-genome-amplification (WGA) and multi-locus KASP-genotyping to measure meiotic crossovers in individual barley pollen grains. To demonstrate the proof of concept, we used 24 gene-based physically mapped single nucleotide polymorphisms to genotype the WGA products of 50 single pollen nuclei. The number of crossovers per chromosome, recombination frequencies along chromosome 3H and segregation distortion were analysed and compared to a doubled haploid (DH) population of the same genotype. The number of crossovers and chromosome wide recombination frequencies show that this approach is able to produce results that resemble those obtained from other methods in a biologically meaningful way. Only the segregation distortion was found to be lower in the pollen population than in DH plants.     

The Limits of Individual Identification from Sample Allele Frequencies: Theory and Statistical Analysis

It was shown recently using experimental data that it is possible under certain conditions to determine whether a person with known genotypes at a number of markers was part of a sample from which only allele frequencies are known. Using population genetic and statistical theory, we show that the power of such identification is, approximately, proportional to the number of independent SNPs divided by the size of the sample from which the allele frequencies are available. We quantify the limits of identification and propose likelihood and regression analysis methods for the analysis of data. We show that these methods have similar statistical properties and have more desirable properties, in terms of type-I error rate and statistical power, than test statistics suggested in the literature.     

Inferring linkage disequilibrium between a polymorphic marker locus and a trait locus in natural populations

Three approaches are proposed in this study for detecting or estimating linkage disequilibrium between a polymorphic marker locus and a locus affecting quantitative genetic variation using the sample from random mating populations. It is shown that the disequilibrium over a wide range of circumstances may be detected with a power of 80% by using phenotypic records and marker genotypes of a few hundred individuals. Comparison of ANOVA and regression methods in this article to the transmission disequilibrium test (TDT) shows that, given the genetic variance explained by the trait locus, the power of TDT depends on the trait allele frequency, whereas the power of ANOVA and regression analyses is relatively independent from the allelic frequency. The TDT method is more powerful when the trait allele frequency is low, but much less powerful when it is high. The likelihood analysis provides reliable estimation of the model parameters when the QTL variance is at least 10% of the phenotypic variance and the sample size of a few hundred is used. Potential use of these estimates in mapping the trait locus is also discussed.     

Exact multipoint quantitative-trait linkage analysis in pedigrees by variance components

Methods based on variance components are powerful tools for linkage analysis of quantitative traits, because they allow simultaneous consideration of all pedigree members. The central idea is to identify loci making a significant contribution to the population variance of a trait, by use of allele-sharing probabilities derived from genotyped marker loci. The technique is only as powerful as the methods used to infer these probabilities, but, to date, no implementation has made full use of the inheritance information in mapping data. Here we present a new implementation that uses an exact multipoint algorithm to extract the full probability distribution of allele sharing at every point in a mapped region. At each locus in the region, the program fits a model that partitions total phenotypic variance into components due to environmental factors, a major gene at the locus, and other unlinked genes. Numerical methods are used to derive maximum-likelihood estimates of the variance components, under the assumption of multivariate normality. A likelihood-ratio test is then applied to detect any significant effect of the hypothesized major gene. Simulations show the method to have greater power than does traditional sib-pair analysis. The method is freely available in a new release of the software package GENEHUNTER.