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1.
Forecasting daily airborne pollen concentrations is of great importance for management of seasonal allergies. This paper explores the performance of the pollen calendar as the most basic observation-oriented model for predicting daily concentrations of airborne Ambrosia, Betula and Poaceae pollen. Pollen calendars were calculated as the mean or median value of pollen concentrations on the same date in previous years of the available historic dataset, as well as the mean or median value of pollen concentrations of the smoothed dataset, pre-processed using moving mean and moving median. The performance of the models was evaluated by comparing forecasted to measured pollen concentrations at both daily and 10-day-average resolutions. This research demonstrates that the interpolation of missing data and pre-processing of the calibration dataset yields lower prediction errors. The increase in the number of calibration years corresponds to an improvement in the performance of the calendars in predicting daily pollen concentrations. However, the most significant improvement was obtained using four calibration years. The calendar models correspond well to the shape of the pollen curve. It was also found that daily resolution instead of 10-day averages adds to their value by emphasising variability in pollen exposure, which is important for personal assessment of dose-response for pollen-sensitive individuals.  相似文献   

2.
Pollen data collected in 1989 and recorded from four stations in Switzerland (Basle, Davos, Nyon on Lake Geneva and Lucerne in central Switzerland) are presented and compared as flowering calendars. The data highlight the importance, for production of a pollen calendar over the whole country, of the fact that the beginning and duration of flowering occur at different times at the four stations.  相似文献   

3.
The present study seeks to compare daily and hourly airborne pollen concentrations at eight different stations in Castilla-La Mancha (central Spain) and Extremadura (south-western Spain) and assess pollen distribution sources. Sampling stations were located 69–440 km apart in a straight line in Albacete, Toledo, Talavera de la Reina and Ciudad Real in Castilla-La Mancha, and in Badajoz, Plasencia, Santa Amalia and Zafra in Extremadura. Airborne pollen was collected using Hirst-type volumetric spore traps. Quercus was the most abundant pollen type at all stations except for Ciudad Real, where Olea pollen predominated. Comparisons of daily data between pairs of stations revealed statistically significant positive correlations in all cases for Poaceae and Olea. Comparisons of hourly data between stations indicated greater differences than daily data. Analysis of correlation coefficients and straight-line distances between stations revealed a strong negative correlation. Analysis of total airborne pollen data for the eight sampling stations suggests that airborne pollen concentrations decrease from west to east and from south to north, partly reflecting dominant wind patterns. A clear correlation was observed between airborne pollen concentrations and the surface area covered by olive crops in a 50 km radius around the sampling stations.  相似文献   

4.
Climatic change is expected to affect the spatiotemporal patterns of airborne allergenic pollen, which has been found to act synergistically with common air pollutants, such as ozone, to cause allergic airway disease (AAD). Observed airborne pollen data from six stations from 1994 to 2011 at Fargo (North Dakota), College Station (Texas), Omaha (Nebraska), Pleasanton (California), Cherry Hill and Newark (New Jersey) in the US were studied to examine climate change effects on trends of annual mean and peak value of daily concentrations, annual production, season start, and season length of Betula (birch) and Quercus (oak) pollen. The growing degree hour (GDH) model was used to establish a relationship between start/end dates and differential temperature sums using observed hourly temperatures from surrounding meteorology stations. Optimum GDH models were then combined with meteorological information from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model, and land use land coverage data from the Biogenic Emissions Land use Database, version 3.1 (BELD3.1), to simulate start dates and season lengths of birch and oak pollen for both past and future years across the contiguous US (CONUS). For most of the studied stations, comparison of mean pollen indices between the periods of 1994–2000 and 2001–2011 showed that birch and oak trees were observed to flower 1–2 weeks earlier; annual mean and peak value of daily pollen concentrations tended to increase by 13.6 %–248 %. The observed pollen season lengths varied for birch and for oak across the different monitoring stations. Optimum initial date, base temperature, and threshold GDH for start date was found to be 1 March, 8 °C, and 1,879 h, respectively, for birch; 1 March, 5 °C, and 4,760 h, respectively, for oak. Simulation results indicated that responses of birch and oak pollen seasons to climate change are expected to vary for different regions.  相似文献   

5.
Japanese cedar (Cryptomeria japonica) pollinosis (JCP), affecting more than a quarter of the Japanese population, is a significant public health problem, due to its negative impact on daily activity. JCP patients have used the four-stage daily pollen deposition information based on the pollen monitoring over 20 years. However, the procedure for monitoring pollen was recently changed dramatically, to hourly average pollen concentration monitoring. In that type of monitoring, JCP patients cannot identify pollen exposure level because the relationship between hourly average pollen concentration and daily pollen deposition is unclear. Based on the parallel monitoring of concentration and deposition counts that we performed in Niigata prefecture, Eastern Japan, we found that the relationship between the daily pollen deposition (pollen cm?2 day?1) and the daily-average pollen concentration (pollen m?3) calculated from hourly average pollen concentration was not only statistically significant but also consistent with the aerodynamic properties of pollen. Using the relationship, we proposed new range criteria of hourly average pollen concentrations corresponding to the four stages of pollen deposition. Additionally, the conversion of pollen deposition to pollen concentration made the long-term trend analysis of the daily-average pollen concentration possible in this study area, and an increasing trend was identified at one site.  相似文献   

6.
The Poaceae pollen season has been characterized in Tetouan during a 7-year period, and the effect of weather conditions on daily concentrations was examined. The forecast models were produced using a stepwise multiple regression analyses. Firstly, three models were constructed to predict daily Poaceae pollen concentrations during the main pollen season, as well as the pre-peak and post-peak periods with data from 2008 to 2012 and tested on data from 2013 and 2014. Secondly, the regression models using leave-one-out cross-validation were produced with data obtained during 2008–2014 taking into account meteorological parameters and mean pollen concentrations of the same day in other years. The duration of the season ranged from 70 days in 2009 to 158 days in 2012. The highest amount of Poaceae pollen was detected in spring and the first fortnight of July. The annual sum of airborne Poaceae pollen concentrations varied between 2100 and 6251. The peak of anthesis was recorded in May in six of the other years studied. The regression models accounted for 36.3–85.7% of variance in daily Poaceae pollen concentrations. The models fitted best when the mean pollen concentration of the same day in other years was added to meteorological variables, and explained 78.4–85.7% of variance of the daily pollen changes. When the year 2014 was used for validating the models, the lowest root-mean-square errors values were found between the observed and estimated data (around 13). The reasonable predictor variables were the mean pollen concentration of the same day in other years, mean temperature, precipitations, and maximum relative humidity.  相似文献   

7.
Poaceae pollen is one of the most prevalent aeroallergens causing allergenic reactions. The aim of this study was to characterise the grass pollen season in Tetouan during the years 2008–2010, to analyse the effect of some meteorological parameters on the incidence of the airborne Poaceae pollen, and to establish forecasting variables for daily pollen concentrations. Aerobiological sampling was undertaken over three seasons using the volumetric method. The pollen season started in April and showed the highest pollen index in May and June, when the maximum temperature ranged from 23 to 27 °C, respectively. The annual pollen score recorded varied from year to year between 2,588 and 5,404. The main pollen season lasted 114–173 days, with peak days occurring mainly in May; the highest concentration reached 308 pollen grains/m3. Air temperature was the most important meteorological parameter and correlated positively to daily pollen concentration increase. An increase in relative humidity and precipitation was usually related to a decrease in airborne pollen content. External validation of the models performed using data from 2011 showed that Poaceae pollen concentration can be highly predicted (64.2–78.6 %) from the maximum temperature, its mean concentration for the same day in other years, and its concentration recorded on the previous day. Sensitive patients suffering allergy to Poaceae pollen are at moderate to highest risk of manifesting allergic symptoms to grass pollen over 33–42 days. The results obtained provide new information on the quantitative contribution of the Poaceae pollen to the airborne pollen of Tetouan and on its temporal distribution. Airborne pollen can be surveyed and forecast in order to warn the atopic population.  相似文献   

8.
The aim of this study is the analysis of the meteorological conditions leading to the release of ash pollen in order to predict the beginning of the pollen season in Zurich, Switzerland. For 12 years over a period of 14 consecutive years, it appears that ash pollen release begins when the cumulated mean daily temperatures starting on January 1 reach 220.7°C, admitting a variation of ±30°C that more or less corresponds to 3 consecutive days at 10°C.  相似文献   

9.
H. Ribeiro  I. Abreu 《Aerobiologia》2014,30(3):333-344
Airborne pollen calendars are useful to estimate the flowering season of the different plants as well as to indicate the allergenic potential present in the atmosphere at a given time. In this study, it is presented a 10-year survey of the atmospheric concentration of allergenic pollen types. Airborne pollen was performed, from 2003 to 2012, using a 7-day Hirst-type volumetric trap. The interannual variation of the daily mean concentration of the number of pollen grains and the main pollen season was determined as well as the hourly variations and correlation with meteorological parameters. During the study period, 18 different allergenic pollen types were considered based on its representativeness on the total annual airborne pollen concentration. The lowest annual concentrations were sampled in 2006 and the highest in 2007. The highest airborne pollen concentration was found during early spring and early summer. On the contrary, December was the month with the lowest pollen concentration. The major pollen sampled belongs to trees followed by weeds and grasses, being the most representative pollen types in the atmosphere: Urticaceae, Platanus, Poaceae, Pinaceae, Cupressaceae, Acer, Quercus, Castanea, Plantago, Alnus, Olea europaea, Betula, Myrtaceae and Populus. Intradiurnal distribution patterns of the pollen types studied presented differences with some taxa being predominantly sampled in the morning (9–11 a.m.) while others in first night hours (between 9 and 12 p.m.). Significantly correlations were found between the airborne pollen concentration and meteorological parameters.  相似文献   

10.
Time-varying parametric linear and time-varying nonparametric regression models as well as a time-varying nonparametric median regression model are developed to predict the daily pollen concentration for Szeged in Hungary using previous-day meteorological parameters and the daily pollen concentration. The models are applied to rainy days and non-rainy days, respectively. The most important predictor is the previous-day pollen concentration level, and the only other predictor retained by a stepwise regression procedure is the daily mean global solar flux for rainy days and the daily mean temperature for non-rainy days. Although the variance percentage explained by these two predictors is higher for non-rainy (55.2%) days than for rainy (51.9%) days, the prediction rate is slightly better for rainy than for non-rainy days. Nonparametric regression yields substantially better estimates, especially for rainy days indicating a nonlinear relationship between the predictors and the pollen concentration. The explained variance percentage is 71.4 and 64.6% for rainy and non-rainy days, respectively. Concerning the mean absolute error, the nonparametric median regression provides the best estimate. The quantile regression shows that probability distribution of daily ragweed concentration is much more skewed for non-rainy days, while the more concentrated probability distribution for rainy days exhibits relatively stable ragweed pollen concentrations. The possible lowest limits of concentrations are also calculated. Under highly favorable conditions for peak concentrations, the pollen level reaches at least 350 grains m−3 and 450 grains m−3 for rainy and non-rainy days, respectively. These values again underline the excessive ragweed pollen load over the area of Szeged.  相似文献   

11.
Pollen-related allergic diseases are a growing health problem. Thus, information on prevalence of airborne pollen may serve as guide for clinicians to accurately manage allergic diseases. In this study, an aeropalynological survey was conducted from November 2013 to October 2014 in Manila, Philippines, to determine the seasonal distribution of the most prevalent airborne pollen and correlate the influence of meteorological factors on their daily concentrations. A volumetric pollen trap was placed on a rooftop, 21 m above ground level. A total of 5677 pollen grains from 18 pollen types were identified, of which Urticaceae, Cannabaceae, Poaceae and Moraceae were the most prevalent. Other pollen types observed that represented 1 % of the total pollen concentration, in descending order, were Terminalia catappa, Myrtaceae, Muntingia calabura, Verbenaceae, Amaranthaceae, Cyperaceae, Caricaceae and Mimosa sp. Of the total airborne pollen, 87 % were obtained during the dry season (November–May). Pollen concentrations peaked (55 %) during the summer months (March–May), indicating a positive correlation (p < 0.01) between pollen concentration and temperature (maximum and mean). Alternatively, only 13 % of the pollen concentrations were obtained during the wet season (June–October). It was observed that pollen concentrations were negatively correlated (p < 0.01) with rainfall and humidity. As the pollen collection was done for one sampling year, only an approximation of the daily concentration of the pollen types was identified and correlated with meteorological factors. Further data collection is required to generate an accurate pollen calendar for use in allergy studies.  相似文献   

12.
Pollen concentrations in the atmosphere of Van city has been monitored for two consecutive years (2010–2011). This was the first detailed aeropalynological study for the elevated East Anatolia Region of Turkey. The sampling was performed by Hirst-type volumetric sampler, and pollen grains of 35 taxa were identified. The main pollen producers of the pollen flora were recorded as: Poaceae (20.94 %), Cupressaceae (10.53 %), Fraxinus (8.56 %), Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae (7.77 %), Populus (7.75 %), Quercus (6.70 %), Platanus (6.68 %), Morus (5.57 %), Plantago (3.03 %). The pollen spectrum reflected the floristic diversity of the region, and the highest pollen concentration was recorded in April. There were a great percentage of allergenic taxa found in the city atmosphere, otherwise many of them scored under threshold values for risk of pollinosis. Statistical analyses were performed for correlating daily pollen concentrations of dominated pollen types concurrent with the data of meteorological parameters in MPS periods and number of significant correlations found. In addition, comparing 2-year data in terms of pollen concentrations and meteorological factors in MPS durations, many variables were found explanatory and concordant with the data. MPS starting dates of many plant taxa were found nearly a month later compared with western sites and lower altitudes of the country as well as Mediterranean countries; this case is mostly thought the ecological factors of the study area which directly affects the plant growth about the timing.  相似文献   

13.
One-third of the Dutch population suffers from allergic rhinitis, including hay fever. In this study, a 5-day-ahead hay fever forecast was developed and validated for grass pollen allergic patients in the Netherlands. Using multiple regression analysis, a two-step pollen and hay fever symptom prediction model was developed using actual and forecasted weather parameters, grass pollen data and patient symptom diaries. Therefore, 80 patients with a grass pollen allergy rated the severity of their hay fever symptoms during the grass pollen season in 2007 and 2008. First, a grass pollen forecast model was developed using the following predictors: (1) daily means of grass pollen counts of the previous 10 years; (2) grass pollen counts of the previous 2-week period of the current year; and (3) maximum, minimum and mean temperature (R 2?=?0.76). The second modeling step concerned the forecasting of hay fever symptom severity and included the following predictors: (1) forecasted grass pollen counts; (2) day number of the year; (3) moving average of the grass pollen counts of the previous 2 week-periods; and (4) maximum and mean temperatures (R 2?=?0.81). Since the daily hay fever forecast is reported in three categories (low-, medium- and high symptom risk), we assessed the agreement between the observed and the 1- to 5-day-ahead predicted risk categories by kappa, which ranged from 65 % to 77 %. These results indicate that a model based on forecasted temperature and grass pollen counts performs well in predicting symptoms of hay fever up to 5 days ahead.  相似文献   

14.
Quercus pollen is one of the most abundant pollen types in the atmosphere of central Iberian Peninsula (Spain), as a consequence of the extensive representation of well-preserved forests and shrub communities dominated by species of the genus Quercus in this area. This paper analysed key features of the Quercus pollination season in the central Iberian Peninsula and the influence of weather-related variables on airborne Quercus pollen concentration through statistical techniques of correlation analysis and the use of a decision tree model for predicting pollen concentrations. Quercus species are very common in Spain and Portugal, dominating a number of ecosystems including Mediterranean forests. This gives rise to very high airborne Quercus pollen concentrations, particularly in spring. Sampling was carried out over a 6-year period using a Hirst volumetric sampler, and the sampling procedure established by the Spanish Aerobiology Network. Results show that between 92 and 98.5 % of total annual airborne Quercus pollen was recorded in the April–June period. Annual pollen index were high in all study years, averaging 12,344 grains, but it should be highlighted that pollen production was highly variable between years. Correlations between mean daily Quercus pollen concentration and weather-related variables showed that in the pre-peak period, a significant positive correlation was observed with the mean daily temperature and the hours of sunshine and a negative correlation was observed with the humidity and the rainfall. In the post-peak period, a significant negative correlation was found with the mean daily temperature and the hours of sunshine. The predictions obtained in the decision tree model showed a moderate significant correlation (r = 0.42) with the daily Quercus pollen concentration predicted and the one observed. Temperature is the most influential variable in the release of Quercus pollen.  相似文献   

15.
The aim of this paper is to analyse how meteorological elements relate to extreme Ambrosia pollen load on the one hand and to extreme total pollen load excluding Ambrosia pollen on the other for Szeged, Southern Hungary. The data set comes from a 9-year period (1999–2007) and includes previous-day means of five meteorological variables and actual-day values of the two pollen variables. Factor analysis with special transformation was performed on the meteorological and pollen load data in order to find out the strength and direction of the association of the meteorological and pollen variables. Then, using selected low and high quantiles corresponding to probability distributions of Ambrosia pollen and the remaining pollen loads, the quantile and beyond-quantile averages of pollen loads were compared and evaluated. Finally, a nearest neighbour (NN) technique was applied to discriminate between extreme and non-extreme pollen events using meteorological elements as explaining variables. The observed below or above quantile events are compared with events obtained from NN decisions. The number of events exceeding the quantile of 90% and not exceeding that of 10% is strongly underestimated. However, the procedure works well for quantiles of 20 and 80%, and even better for those of 30 and 70%. Using a nearest neighbour technique, explaining variables in decreasing order of their influence on Ambrosia pollen load are temperature, global solar flux, relative humidity, air pressure and wind speed, while on the load of the remaining pollen are temperature, relative humidity, global solar flux, air pressure and wind speed.  相似文献   

16.
An aeropalynological survey was conducted at two different sites in Rohtak city, Haryana, at a height of 1.8 m, three times a day, for two consecutive years (July 2007–June 2009). A total of 31 pollen types were identified to the lowest taxonomical level whenever possible. The major contributor to the pollen load was Cannabis sativa (28.9 %) followed by Poaceae (20.65 %), Chenopodiaceae/Amaranthaceae (10.56 %), Parthenium hysterophorus (6.80 %), Morus alba (6.15 %), Artemisia sp. (4.03 %), Cyperus sp. (3.20 %) and Eucalyptus sp. (3.07 %). Two major pollen seasons were recognized, that is, July–October and March–April, although pollen was recorded in varying concentrations all along the year. Spatial variations were also observed, with higher pollen loads at the site surrounded by dense vegetation. The study will provide preliminary but useful data to local allergologists for effective diagnosis and treatment of respiratory allergic ailments.  相似文献   

17.
Plantago L. species are very common in nitrified areas such as roadsides and their pollen is a major cause of pollinosis in temperate regions. In this study, we sampled airborne pollen grains in the city of León (NW, Spain) from January 1995 to December 2011, by using a Burkard® 7-day-recording trap. The percentage of Plantago pollen compared to the total pollen count ranged from 11 % (1997) to 3 % (2006) in the period under study. Peak pollen concentrations were recorded in May and June. Our 17-year analysis failed to disclose significant changes in the seasonal trend of plantain pollen concentration. In addition, there were no important changes in the start dates of pollen release and the meteorological parameters analyzed did not show significant variations in their usual trends. We analyzed the influence of several meteorological parameters on Plantago pollen concentration to explain the differences in pollen concentration trends during the study. Our results show that temperature, sun hours, evaporation, and relative humidity are the meteorological parameters best correlated to the behavior of Plantago pollen grains. In general, the years with low pollen concentrations correspond to the years with less precipitation or higher temperatures. We calculated the approximate Plantago flowering dates using the cumulative sum of daily maximum temperatures and compared them with the real bloom dates. The differences obtained were 4 days in 2009, 3 days in 2010, and 1 day in 2011 considering the complete period of pollination.  相似文献   

18.
Annual PAR (pollen accumulation rates; grains cm?2 year?1) were studied with modified Tauber traps situated in ten regions, in Poland (Roztocze), the Czech Republic (two regions in Krkono?e, two in ?umava), Switzerland (4 regions in the Alps), and Georgia (Lagodekhi). The time-series are 10–16 years long, all ending in 2007. We calculated correlations between pollen data and climate. Pollen data are PAR summarized per region (4–7 traps selected per region) for each pollen type (9–14 per region) using log-transformed, detrended medians. Climate data are monthly temperature and precipitation measured at nearby stations, and their averages over all possible 2- to 6-month windows falling within the 20-month window ending with August, just prior to the yearly pollen-trap collection. Most PAR/climate relationships were found to differ both among pollen types and among regions, the latter probably due to differences among the study regions in the habitats of plant populations. Results shared by a number of regions can be summarized as follows. Summer warmth was found to enhance the following year’s PAR of Picea, Pinus non-cembra, Larix and Fagus. Cool summers, in contrast, increase the PAR of Abies, Alnus viridis and Gramineae in the following year, while wet summers promote PAR of Quercus and Gramineae. Wetness and warmth in general were found to enhance PAR of Salix. Precipitation was found to be more important for PAR of Alnus glutinosa-type than temperature. Weather did not have an impact on the PAR of Gramineae, and possibly of Cyperaceae in the same year. Care is advised when extrapolating our results to PAR in pollen sequences, because there are large errors associated with PAR from sediments, due to the effects of taphonomy and sedimentation and high uncertainty in dating. In addition, in pollen sequences that have decadal to centennial rather than near-annual resolution, plant-interaction effects may easily out-weigh the weather signal.  相似文献   

19.
Summary Pollen data have been collected from 66 stations, situated in 19 European countries thanks to the initiative of both the Working Group «European Aeroallergen Network» (of the Int. Assoc. of Aerobiology) and the Subcommittee «Aerobiology of inhalant allergens» of the European Academy of Allergology and Clinical Immunology. Volumetric data over periods of 3 to 5 years (up to 1988) were included, and 15 both aerobiologically and allergologically relevant taxa were selected. Geographically adjacent stations were grouped together into regions looking at the peak period of the airborne grass-pollen presence. The result is a collection of 21 regional European pollen calendars, some of which are covering several countries (e.g. «Western Europe»), others are applicable only to a part of one country (e.g. «Southern Italy»).Comparing the calendars, general features are the South-to-North delay shift in the appearance of tree-pollen types in Spring, and the reverse shift for the weed-pollen types in late summer. The presence ofAmbrosia pollen in the air in several parts of Central Europe is clearly shown.  相似文献   

20.
The airborne pollen concentration in the city of Badajoz was measured in two locations 2.9 km apart. The measurements were taken from January to June between 2009 and 2012 using Hirst-type volumetric aerobiological samplers. One sampler was placed at the Faculty of Science (FS) and the other at the Agricultural Engineering School (AES) of the University of Extremadura, Spain, on terraces located 16 and 6 m above ground, respectively. The two sets of hourly and daily pollen concentrations were compared regarding the meteorological parameters and the distribution of local pollen sources. A total of 46 pollen types were counted, with a mean total concentration of 43 pollen grains/m³ in the winter and 336 pollen grains/m³ in the spring. In the winter, pollen grains from (in decreasing order) Cupressaceae, FraxinusPhillyrea, Urticaceae spp., Alnus glutinosa and Urtica membranacea types represented 77 % of the total. In the spring, 89 % of the total was represented by pollen grains from (in decreasing order) Quercus, Poaceae, Olea, Pinaceae and Plantago. The FS/AES ratio was 0.57 in the winter and 1.31 in the spring. While a Wilcoxon test applied to the daily total concentration data showed statistically significant differences between the two sites, a correlation study based on the Spearman coefficient showed statistically significant correlations in both the winter and spring. The results were similar when comparing the separate pollen types, except for Urticaceae spp., which showed no statistically significant correlation. The meteorological data studied showed a statistically significant correlation with the daily concentrations. A comparison of the hourly concentration data showed no correspondence with the time of maximum concentration. The local distribution of pollen sources explained some of the differences found between the two sites. Overall, the results indicate that a single aerobiological sampler may be sufficiently representative to register the daily pollen grain data of an urban area of approximately 3 km or greater in diameter, although it underestimates the influence of heterogeneity in the distribution of the local flora.  相似文献   

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