The statistical implications of autocorrelation for detection in environmental health assessment

Many environmental health and risk assessment techniques and models aim at estimating the fluctuations of selected biological endpoints through the time domain as a means of assessing changes in the environment or the probability of a particular measurement level occurring. In either case, estimates of the sample variance and mean of the sample variance are crucial to making appropriate statistical inferences. The commonly employed statistical techniques for estimating both measures presume the data were generated by a covariance stationary process. In such cases, the observations are treated as independently and identically distributed and classical statistical testing methods are applied. However, if the assumption of covariance stationarity is violated, the resulting sample variance and variance of the sample mean estimates are biased. The bias compromises statistical testing procedures by increasing the probability of detecting significance in tests of mean and variance differences. This can lead to inappropriate decisions being made about the severity of environmental damage. Accordingly, it is argued that data sets be examined for correlation in the time domain and appropriate adjustments be made to the required estimators before they are used in statistical hypothesis testing. Only then can credible and scientifically defensible decisions be made by environmental decision makers and regulators.     

Using reproductive value to estimate key parameters in density-independent age-structured populations

The dynamics of reproductive value are used to provide a simple derivation of Tuljapurkar's approximation for the long-run growth rate and environmental variance of lnN, in a density-independent age-structured population in a random environment. With no environmental autocorrelation, the dynamics of total population size, N, generally shows time lags and autocorrelation caused by life history, which may strongly bias estimates of environmental variance obtained by ignoring age structure. In contrast, the total reproductive value, V, is Markovian and obeys a first-order autoregressive process. This suggests a simple method for estimating the environmental variance, and avoiding potentially large bias due to age-structure fluctuations, by converting a multivariate time series of age structure to a univariate time series of lnV. We illustrate the method by estimating the long-run growth rate and the environmental variance in an exponentially growing population of Bighorn Sheep.     

Inferring the trajectory of genetic variance in the course of artificial selection

A method is proposed to infer genetic parameters within a cohort, using data from all individuals in an experiment. An application is the study of changes in additive genetic variance over generations, employing data from all generations. Inferences about the genetic variance in a given generation are based on its marginal posterior distribution, estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. As defined, the additive genetic variance within the group is directly related to the amount of selection response to be expected if parents are chosen within the group. Results from a simulated selection experiment are used to illustrate properties of the method. Four sets of data are analysed: directional selection with and without environmental trend, and random selection, with and without environmental trend. In all cases, posterior credibility intervals of size 95% assign relatively high density to values of the additive genetic variance and heritability in the neighbourhood of the true values. Properties and generalizations of the method are discussed.     

Using Weighted Kaplan-Meier Statistics in Nonparametric Comparisons of Paired Censored Survival Outcomes

This research introduces methods for nonparametric testing of weighted integrated survival differences in the context of paired censored survival designs. The current work extends work done by Pepe and Fleming (1989, Biometrics 45, 497-507), which considered similar test statistics directed toward independent treatment group comparisons. An asymptotic closed-form distribution of the proposed family of tests is presented, along with variance estimates constructed under null and alternative hypotheses using nonparametric maximum likelihood estimates of the closed-form quantities. The described method allows for additional information from individuals with no corresponding matched pair member to be incorporated into the test statistic in sampling scenarios where singletons are not prone to selection bias. Simulations presented over a range of potential dependence in the paired censored survival data demonstrate substantial power gains associated with taking into account the dependence structure. Consequences of ignoring the paired nature of the data include overly conservative tests in terms of power and size. In fact, simulation results using tests for independent samples in the presence of positive correlation consistently undershot both size and power targets that would have been attained in the absence of correlation. This additional worrisome effect on operating characteristics highlights the need for accounting for dependence in this popular family of tests.     

Population trends from count data: Handling environmental bias,overdispersion and excess of zeroes

The assessment of population trends is a key point in wildlife conservation. Survey data collected over long period may not be comparable due to the presence of environmental biases (i.e. inadequate representation of the variability of environmental covariates in the study area). Moreover, count data may be affected by both overdispersion (i.e. the variance is larger than the mean) and excess of zero counts (potentially leading to zero inflation). The aim of this study was to define a modelling procedure to assess long-term population trends that addressed these three issues and to shed light on the effects of environmental bias, overdispersion, and zero inflation on trend estimates. To test our procedure, we used six bird species whose data were collected in northern Italy from 1992 to 2019. We designed a multi-step approach. First, using generalised additive models (GAMs), we implemented a full factorial design of models (eight models per species) taking or not into account the environmental bias (including or not including environmental covariates, respectively), overdispersion (using a negative binomial distribution or a Poisson distribution, respectively), and zero inflation (using or not using zero-inflated models, respectively). Models were ranked according to the Akaike Information Criterion. Second, annual population indices (median and 95% confidence interval of the number of breeding pairs per point count) were predicted through a parametric bootstrap procedure. Third, long-term population trends were assessed and tested for significance fitting weighted least square linear regression models to the predicted annual indices. To evaluate the effect of environmental bias, overdispersion, and zero inflation on trend estimates, an average discrepancy index was calculated for each model group. The results showed that environmental bias was the most important driver in determining different trend estimates, although overlooking overdispersion and zero inflation could lead to misleading results. For five species, zero-inflated GAMs resulted the best models to predict annual population indices. Our findings suggested a mutual interaction between zero inflation and overdispersion, with overdispersion arising in non-zero-inflated models. Moreover, for species having flocking foraging and/or colonial breeding behaviours, overdispersed and zero-inflated models may be more adequate. In conclusion, properly handling environmental bias, which may affect several data sets coming from long-term monitoring programs, is crucial to obtain reliable estimates of population trends. Furthermore, the extent to which overdispersion and zero inflation may affect trend estimates should be assessed by comparing different models, rather than presumed using statistical assumption.     

Reducing environmental bias when measuring natural selection

Abstract.— Crucial to understanding the process of natural selection is characterizing phenotypic selection. Measures of phenotypic selection can be biased by environmental variation among individuals that causes a spurious correlation between a trait and fitness. One solution is analyzing genotypic data, rather than phenotypic data. Genotypic data, however, are difficult to gather, can be gathered from few species, and typically have low statistical power. Environmental correlations may act through traits other than through fitness itself. A path analytic framework, which includes measures of such traits, may reduce environmental bias in estimates of selection coefficients. We tested the efficacy of path analysis to reduce bias by re-analyzing three experiments where both phenotypic and genotypic data were available. All three consisted of plant species (Impatiens capensis, Arabidopsis thaliana , and Raphanus sativus) grown in experimental plots or the greenhouse. We found that selection coefficients estimated by path analysis using phenotypic data were highly correlated with those based on genotypic data with little systematic bias in estimating the strength of selection. Although not a panacea, using path analysis can substantially reduce environmental biases in estimates of selection coefficients. Such confidence in phenotypic selection estimates is critical for progress in the study of natural selection.     

Using Time Series to Estimate Rates of Population Change from Abundance Data

Abstract: Assessing the dynamics of wild populations often involves an estimate of the finite rate of population increase (λ) or the instantaneous rate of increase (r). However, a pervasive problem in trend estimation is that many analytical techniques assume independent errors among the observations. To be valid, variance estimates around λ (or r) must account for serial correlation that exists in abundance data. Time series analysis provides a method for estimating population trends and associated variances when serial correlation of errors occurs. We offer an approach and present an example for estimating λ and its associated variance when observations are correlated over time. We present a simplified time series method and variance estimator to account for autocorrelation based on a moving average process. We illustrate the procedure using a spectacled eider (Somateria fischeri) data set of estimated annual abundances from aerial transect surveys conducted from 1957 to 1995. The analytic variance estimator provides a way to plan future studies to reduce uncertainty and bias in estimates of population growth rates. Demographic studies with policy implications or those involving species of conservation concern should especially consider the correlated nature of population trend data.     

Designing artificial selection experiments for specific objectives

The observed genetic gain (ΔP) from selection in a finite population is the possible expected genetic gain E(Δ G) minus the difference in inbreeding depression effects in the selected and control lines. The inbreeding depression can be avoided by crossing the control and selected ♂ and ♀ parents to unrelated mates and summing the observed gains. The possible expected gain will be reduced by an amount D from the predicted gain because of the effects of the genetic limit and random genetic drift, the magnitude of which is a function of effective population size, N. The expected value of D is zero in unselected control populations and in the first generation for selected populations. Therefore, this source of bias can be reduced by increasing N in the selected populations and can be avoided by selecting for a single generation. To obtain observed responses which are unbiased estimates of the predicted response from which to estimate the realized heritability (or regression) in the zero generation, or to test genetic theory based on infinite population size, single-generation selection with many replications would be most efficient. To measure the "total" effect or genetic efficiency of a selection criterion or method, including the effect of different selection intensities, effective population sizes, and space requirements, more than one generation of selection is required to estimate the expected response in breeding values. The efficiency, in the sense of minimum variance, of estimating the expected breeding values at any generation t will decline as the number of generations t increases. The variance of either the estimated mean gain or the regression of gain on selection differential can be reduced more by increasing the number of replicates K than by increasing the number of generations t. Also the general pattern of the response over t can be estimated if the N's are known. Therefore, two- or not more than three-generation selection experiments with many replications would be most efficient.     

On selection criteria and estimation of parameters when the variance is heterogeneous

Summary Procedures for ranking candidates for selection and for estimating genetic and environmental parameters when variances are heterogeneous are discussed. The best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP) accounts automatically for heterogeneous variance provided that the covariance structure is known and that the assumptions of the model hold. Under multivariate normality BLUP allowing for heterogeneous variance maximizes expected genetic progress. Examples of application of BLUP to selection when residual or genetic variances are heterogeneous are given. Restricted maximum likelihood estimation of heterogeneous variances and covariances via the expectation-maximization algorithm is presented.     

THE MEASUREMENT OF SELECTION ON QUANTITATIVE TRAITS: BIASES DUE TO ENVIRONMENTAL COVARIANCES BETWEEN TRAITS AND FITNESS

The use of regression techniques for estimating the direction and magnitude of selection from measurements on phenotypes has become widespread in field studies. A potential problem with these techniques is that environmental correlations between fitness and the traits examined may produce biased estimates of selection gradients. This report demonstrates that the phenotypic covariance between fitness and a trait, used as an estimate of the selection differential in estimating selection gradients, has two components: a component induced by selection itself and a component due to the effect of environmental factors on fitness. The second component is shown to be responsible for biases in estimates of selection gradients. The use of regressions involving genotypic and breeding values instead of phenotypic values can yield estimates of selection gradients that are not biased by environmental covariances. Statistical methods for estimating the coefficients of such regressions, and for testing for biases in regressions involving phenotypic values, are described.     

Selective genotyping for QTL detection using sib pair analysis in outbred populations with hierarchical structures

A simulation study illustrates the effects of the inclusion of half-sib pairs as well as the effects of selective genotyping on the power of detection and the parameter estimates in a sib pair analysis of data from an outbred population. The power of QTL detection obtained from samples of sib pairs selected according to their within family variance or according to the mean within family variance within half sib family was compared and contrasted with the power obtained when only full sib pair analysis was used. There was an increase in power (4–16%) and decrease in the bias of parameter estimates with the use of half-sib information. These improvements in power and parameter estimates depended on the number of the half sib pairs (half sib family size). Almost the same power as that obtained using all the available sib pairs could be achieved by selecting only 50–60% the animals. The most effective method was to select both full and half sib pairs on the basis of high within full sib family variance for the trait in question. The QTL position estimates were in general slightly biased towards the center of the chromosome and the QTL variance estimates were biased upwards, there being quite large differences in bias depending on the selection method.     

Estimation of genetic variance for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivity using double hierarchical generalized linear models

Background

Genetic variation for environmental sensitivity indicates that animals are genetically different in their response to environmental factors. Environmental factors are either identifiable (e.g. temperature) and called macro-environmental or unknown and called micro-environmental. The objectives of this study were to develop a statistical method to estimate genetic parameters for macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities simultaneously, to investigate bias and precision of resulting estimates of genetic parameters and to develop and evaluate use of Akaike’s information criterion using h-likelihood to select the best fitting model.

Methods

We assumed that genetic variation in macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities is expressed as genetic variance in the slope of a linear reaction norm and environmental variance, respectively. A reaction norm model to estimate genetic variance for macro-environmental sensitivity was combined with a structural model for residual variance to estimate genetic variance for micro-environmental sensitivity using a double hierarchical generalized linear model in ASReml. Akaike’s information criterion was constructed as model selection criterion using approximated h-likelihood. Populations of sires with large half-sib offspring groups were simulated to investigate bias and precision of estimated genetic parameters.

Results

Designs with 100 sires, each with at least 100 offspring, are required to have standard deviations of estimated variances lower than 50% of the true value. When the number of offspring increased, standard deviations of estimates across replicates decreased substantially, especially for genetic variances of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Standard deviations of estimated genetic correlations across replicates were quite large (between 0.1 and 0.4), especially when sires had few offspring. Practically, no bias was observed for estimates of any of the parameters. Using Akaike’s information criterion the true genetic model was selected as the best statistical model in at least 90% of 100 replicates when the number of offspring per sire was 100. Application of the model to lactation milk yield in dairy cattle showed that genetic variance for micro- and macro-environmental sensitivities existed.

Conclusion

The algorithm and model selection criterion presented here can contribute to better understand genetic control of macro- and micro-environmental sensitivities. Designs or datasets should have at least 100 sires each with 100 offspring.     

The Design of Inheritance Studies

In a study of the inheritance of a quantitative trait in the general population, data are collected from the three-generational nuclear families of many index cases. The question arises as to the optimal choice of family members to maximise the power of testing a hypothesis of polygenic and environmental effects against an alternative of environmental effects only. The method chosen is to minimise the asymptotic variance of the ratio of polygenic to environmental variance, for fixed total variance and the environmental correlations between family members. Using Taylor expansions in the region where the ratio is close to zero, an approximate expression for the variance of the ratio is obtained. This expression can then be evaluated for all possible structures of a three-generational nuclear family of a given size.     

Selection and subsequent analysis of sib pair data for QTL detection.

Haseman and Elston (1972) developed a robust regression method for the detection of linkage between a marker and a quantitative trait locus (QTL) using sib pair data. The principle underlying this method is that the difference in phenotypes between pairs of sibs becomes larger as they share a decreasing number of alleles at a particular QTL identical by descent (IBD) from their parents. In this case, phenotypically very different sibs will also on average share a proportion of alleles IBD at any marker linked to the QTL that is lower than the expected value of 0.5. Thus, the deviation of the proportion of marker alleles IBD from the expected value in pairs of sibs selected to be phenotypically different (i.e. discordant) can provide a test for the presence of a QTL. A simple regression method for QTL detection in sib pairs selected for high phenotypic differences is presented here. The power of the analytical method was found to be greater than the power obtained using the standard analysis when samples of sib pairs with high phenotypic differences were used. However, the use of discordant sib pairs was found to be less powerful for QTL detection than alternative selective genotyping schemes based on the phenotypic values of the sibs except with intense selection, when its advantage was only marginal. The most effective selection scheme overall was the use of sib pairs from entire families selected on the basis of high within-family variance for the trait in question. There is little effect of selection on QTL position estimates, which are in good agreement with the simulated values. However, QTL variance estimates are biased to a greater or lesser degree, depending on the selection method.     

Bias in estimates of quantitative-trait-locus effect in genome scans: demonstration of the phenomenon and a method-of-moments procedure for reducing bias

An attractive feature of variance-components methods (including the Haseman-Elston tests) for the detection of quantitative-trait loci (QTL) is that these methods provide estimates of the QTL effect. However, estimates that are obtained by commonly used methods can be biased for several reasons. Perhaps the largest source of bias is the selection process. Generally, QTL effects are reported only at locations where statistically significant results are obtained. This conditional reporting can lead to a marked upward bias. In this article, we demonstrate this bias and show that its magnitude can be large. We then present a simple method-of-moments (MOM)-based procedure to obtain more-accurate estimates, and we demonstrate its validity via Monte Carlo simulation. Finally, limitations of the MOM approach are noted, and we discuss some alternative procedures that may also reduce bias.     

Hypothesis testing with the similarity index

Multilocus DNA fingerprinting methods have been used extensively to address genetic issues in wildlife populations. Hypotheses concerning population subdivision and differing levels of diversity can be addressed through the use of the similarity index (S), a band-sharing coefficient, and many researchers construct hypothesis tests with S based on the work of Lynch. It is shown in the present study, through mathematical analysis and through simulations, that estimates of the variance of a mean S based on Lynch's work are downwardly biased. An unbiased alternative is presented and mathematically justified. It is shown further, however, that even when the bias in Lynch's estimator is corrected, the estimator is highly imprecise compared with estimates based on an alternative approach such as 'parametric bootstrapping' of allele frequencies. Also discussed are permutation tests and their construction given the interdependence of Ss which share individuals. A simulation illustrates how some published misuses of these tests can lead to incorrect conclusions in hypothesis testing.     

Estimation of the upper limit of the mutation rate and mean heterozygous effect of deleterious mutations

Deng et al. have recently proposed that estimates of an upper limit to the rate of spontaneous mutations and their average heterozygous effect can be obtained from the mean and variance of a given fitness trait in naturally segregating populations, provided that allele frequencies are maintained at the balance between mutation and selection. Using simulations they show that this estimation method generally has little bias and is very robust to violations of the mutation-selection balance assumption. Here I show that the particular parameters and models used in these simulations generally reduce the amount of bias that can occur with this estimation method. In particular, the assumption of a large mutation rate in the simulations always implies a low bias of estimates. In addition, the specific model of overdominance used to check the violation of the mutation-selection balance assumption is such that there is not a dramatic decline in mean fitness from overdominant mutations, again implying a low bias of estimates. The assumption of lower mutation rates and/or other models of balancing selection may imply considerably larger biases of the estimates, making the reliability of the proposed method highly questionable.     

MAXIMUM-LIKELIHOOD APPROACHES APPLIED TO QUANTITATIVE GENETICS OF NATURAL POPULATIONS

Growing interest in adaptive evolution in natural populations has spurred efforts to infer genetic components of variance and covariance of quantitative characters. Here, I review difficulties inherent in the usual least-squares methods of estimation. A useful alternative approach is that of maximum likelihood (ML). Its particular advantage over least squares is that estimation and testing procedures are well defined, regardless of the design of the data. A modified version of ML, REML, eliminates the bias of ML estimates of variance components. Expressions for the expected bias and variance of estimates obtained from balanced, fully hierarchical designs are presented for ML and REML. Analyses of data simulated from balanced, hierarchical designs reveal differences in the properties of ML, REML, and F-ratio tests of significance. A second simulation study compares properties of REML estimates obtained from a balanced, fully hierarchical design (within-generation analysis) with those from a sampling design including phenotypic data on parents and multiple progeny. It also illustrates the effects of imposing nonnegativity constraints on the estimates. Finally, it reveals that predictions of the behavior of significance tests based on asymptotic theory are not accurate when sample size is small and that constraining the estimates seriously affects properties of the tests. Because of their great flexibility, likelihood methods can serve as a useful tool for estimation of quantitative-genetic parameters in natural populations. Difficulties involved in hypothesis testing remain to be solved.     

Estimation of evolutionary parameters with phylogenetic trees

An important issue in the phylogenetic analysis of nucleotide sequence data using the maximum likelihood (ML) method is the underlying evolutionary model employed. We consider the problem of simultaneously estimating the tree topology and the parameters in the underlying substitution model and of obtaining estimates of the standard errors of these parameter estimates. Given a fixed tree topology and corresponding set of branch lengths, the ML estimates of standard evolutionary model parameters are asymptotically efficient, in the sense that their joint distribution is asymptotically normal with the variance–covariance matrix given by the inverse of the Fisher information matrix. We propose a new estimate of this conditional variance based on estimation of the expected information using a Monte Carlo sampling (MCS) method. Simulations are used to compare this conditional variance estimate to the standard technique of using the observed information under a variety of experimental conditions. In the case in which one wishes to estimate simultaneously the tree and parameters, we provide a bootstrapping approach that can be used in conjunction with the MCS method to estimate the unconditional standard error. The methods developed are applied to a real data set consisting of 30 papillomavirus sequences. This overall method is easily incorporated into standard bootstrapping procedures to allow for proper variance estimation.     

Testing for environmentally induced bias in phenotypic estimates of natural selection: theory and practice

Measuring natural selection has been a fundamental goal of evolutionary biology for more than a century, and techniques developed in the last 20 yr have provided relatively simple means for biologists to do so. Many of these techniques, however, share a common limitation: when applied to phenotypic data, environmentally induced covariances between traits and fitness can lead to biased estimates of selection and misleading predictions about evolutionary change. Utilizing estimates of breeding values instead of phenotypic data with these methods can eliminate environmentally induced bias, although this approach is more difficult to implement. Despite this potential limitation to phenotypic methods and the availability of a potential solution, little empirical evidence exists on the extent of environmentally induced bias in phenotypic estimates of selection. In this article, we present a method for detecting bias in phenotypic estimates of selection and demonstrate its use with three independent data sets. Nearly 25% of the phenotypic selection gradients estimated from our data are biased by environmental covariances. We find that bias caused by environmental covariances appears mainly to affect quantitative estimates of the strength of selection based on phenotypic data and that the magnitude of these biases is large. As our estimates of selection are based on data from spatially replicated field experiments, we suggest that our findings on the prevalence of bias caused by environmental covariances are likely to be conservative.