Multi-scale modeling for sustainable chemical production

With recent advances in metabolic engineering, it is now technically possible to produce a wide portfolio of existing petrochemical products from biomass feedstock. In recent years, a number of modeling approaches have been developed to support the engineering and decision-making processes associated with the development and implementation of a sustainable biochemical industry. The temporal and spatial scales of modeling approaches for sustainable chemical production vary greatly, ranging from metabolic models that aid the design of fermentative microbial strains to material and monetary flow models that explore the ecological impacts of all economic activities. Research efforts that attempt to connect the models at different scales have been limited. Here, we review a number of existing modeling approaches and their applications at the scales of metabolism, bioreactor, overall process, chemical industry, economy, and ecosystem. In addition, we propose a multi-scale approach for integrating the existing models into a cohesive framework. The major benefit of this proposed framework is that the design and decision-making at each scale can be informed, guided, and constrained by simulations and predictions at every other scale. In addition, the development of this multi-scale framework would promote cohesive collaborations across multiple traditionally disconnected modeling disciplines to achieve sustainable chemical production.     

Modeling Dynamics of Culex pipiens Complex Populations and Assessing Abatement Strategies for West Nile Virus

The primary mosquito species associated with underground stormwater systems in the United States are the Culex pipiens complex species. This group represents important vectors of West Nile virus (WNV) throughout regions of the continental U.S. In this study, we designed a mathematical model and compared it with surveillance data for the Cx. pipiens complex collected in Beaufort County, South Carolina. Based on the best fit of the model to the data, we estimated parameters associated with the effectiveness of public health insecticide (adulticide) treatments (primarily pyrethrin products) as well as the birth, maturation, and death rates of immature and adult Cx. pipiens complex mosquitoes. We used these estimates for modeling the spread of WNV to obtain more reliable disease outbreak predictions and performed numerical simulations to test various mosquito abatement strategies. We demonstrated that insecticide treatments produced significant reductions in the Cx. pipiens complex populations. However, abatement efforts were effective for approximately one day and the vector mosquitoes rebounded until the next treatment. These results suggest that frequent insecticide applications are necessary to control these mosquitoes. We derived the basic reproductive number (ℜ₀) to predict the conditions under which disease outbreaks are likely to occur and to evaluate mosquito abatement strategies. We concluded that enhancing the mosquito death rate results in lower values of ℜ₀, and if ℜ₀<1, then an epidemic will not occur. Our modeling results provide insights about control strategies of the vector populations and, consequently, a potential decrease in the risk of a WNV outbreak.     

Identifying the Environmental Conditions Favouring West Nile Virus Outbreaks in Europe

West Nile Virus (WNV) is a globally important mosquito borne virus, with significant implications for human and animal health. The emergence and spread of new lineages, and increased pathogenicity, is the cause of escalating public health concern. Pinpointing the environmental conditions that favour WNV circulation and transmission to humans is challenging, due both to the complexity of its biological cycle, and the under-diagnosis and reporting of epidemiological data. Here, we used remote sensing and GIS to enable collation of multiple types of environmental data over a continental spatial scale, in order to model annual West Nile Fever (WNF) incidence across Europe and neighbouring countries. Multi-model selection and inference were used to gain a consensus from multiple linear mixed models. Climate and landscape were key predictors of WNF outbreaks (specifically, high precipitation in late winter/early spring, high summer temperatures, summer drought, occurrence of irrigated croplands and highly fragmented forests). Identification of the environmental conditions associated with WNF outbreaks is key to enabling public health bodies to properly focus surveillance and mitigation of West Nile virus impact, but more work needs to be done to enable accurate predictions of WNF risk.     

A continental risk assessment of West Nile virus under climate change

Since first introduced to North America in 1999, West Nile virus (WNV) has spread rapidly across the continent, threatening wildlife populations and posing serious health risks to humans. While WNV incidence has been linked to environmental factors, particularly temperature and rainfall, little is known about how future climate change may affect the spread of the disease. Using available data on WNV infections in vectors and hosts collected from 2003–2011 and using a suite of 10 species distribution models, weighted according to their predictive performance, we modeled the incidence of WNV under current climate conditions at a continental scale. Models were found to accurately predict spatial patterns of WNV that were then used to examine how future climate may affect the spread of the disease. Predictions were accurate for cases of human WNV infection in the following year (2012), with areas reporting infections having significantly higher probability of presence as predicted by our models. Projected geographic distributions of WNV in North America under future climate for 2050 and 2080 show an expansion of suitable climate for the disease, driven by warmer temperatures and lower annual precipitation that will result in the exposure of new and naïve host populations to the virus with potentially serious consequences. Our risk assessment identifies current and future hotspots of West Nile virus where mitigation efforts should be focused and presents an important new approach for monitoring vector‐borne disease under climate change.     

An epidemiological model for West Nile virus: invasion analysis and control applications

Infectious diseases present ecological and public health challenges that can be addressed with mathematical models. Certain pathogens, however, including the emerging West Nile virus (WN) in North America, exhibit a complex seasonal ecology that is not readily analysed with standard epidemiological methods. We develop a single-season susceptible-infectious-removed (SIR) model of WN cross-infection between birds and mosquitoes, incorporating specific features unique to WN ecology. We obtain the disease reproduction number, R0, and show that mosquito control decreases, but bird control increases, the chance of an outbreak. We provide a simple new analytical and graphical method for determining, from standard public health indicators, necessary mosquito control levels. We extend this method to a seasonally variable mosquito population and outline a multi-year model framework. The model's numerical simulations predict disease levels that are consistent with independent data.     

Immune response to the West Nile virus in aged non-human primates

Background

Risk of encephalitis from West Nile virus (WNV) infection increases dramatically with age. Understanding the basis of this susceptibility requires development of suitable animal models. Here, we investigated the immune response to WNV in old non-human primates.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We investigated clinical, immunological and virological correlates of WNV infection in aging non-human primates. Aged (17–30yrs) and adult (6–9yrs) Rhesus macaques (RM) were challenged with WNV in the presence or the absence of the mosquito salivary gland extract (SGE) to approximate natural infection. None of the 26 animals exhibited clinical signs of the disease. Quantitative PCR suggested discrete and short-lived viremia, but infectious virus was never isolated. There was markedly increased, age-independent, proliferation of CD3⁻ non-B cells, followed by B-cell proliferation, which correlated to the loss of detectable WNV genomes. Moreover, animals primed with mosquito salivary gland extract exhibited reduced circulating WNV RNA. While we found the expected age-associated reduction in T cell proliferation, adaptive immunity did not correlate with infection outcome. That was further confirmed in a cohort of thymectomized and/or CD8 T-cell depleted Cynomolgus macaques (CM; N = 15), who also failed to develop WNV disease.

Conclusions/significance

Results are consistent with strong and age-independent innate resistance of macaques against WNV challenge. This animal model is therefore not suitable for vaccine and therapeutic testing against WNV. However, understanding the basis of their innate resistance against WNV in macaques could provide helpful clues to improve anti-WNV protection of older adults.     

West Nile Virus Surveillance in 2013 via Mosquito Screening in Northern Italy and the Influence of Weather on Virus Circulation

West Nile virus (WNV) is a recently re-emerged health problem in Europe. In Italy, an increasing number of outbreaks of West Nile disease, with occurrences of human cases, have been reported since 2008. This is particularly true in northern Italy, where entomological surveillance systems have been implemented at a regional level. The aim of this study was to use, for the first time, all the entomological data collected in the five regions undergoing surveillance for WNV in northern Italy to characterize the viral circulation (at a spatial and temporal scale), identify potential mosquito vectors, and specify relationships between virus circulation and meteorological conditions. In 2013, 286 sites covering the entire Pianura Padana area were monitored. A total of 757,461 mosquitoes were sampled. Of these, 562,079 were tested by real-time PCR in 9,268 pools, of which 180 (1.9%) were positive for WNV. The largest part of the detected WNV sequences belonged to lineage II, demonstrating that, unlike those in the past, the 2013 outbreak was mainly sustained by this WNV lineage. This surveillance also detected the Usutu virus, a WNV-related flavivirus, in 241 (2.6%) pools. The WNV surveillance systems precisely identified the area affected by the virus and detected the viral circulation approximately two weeks before the occurrence of onset of human cases. Ninety percent of the sampled mosquitoes were Culex pipiens, and 178/180 WNV-positive pools were composed of only this species, suggesting this mosquito is the main WNV vector in northern Italy. A significantly higher abundance of the vector was recorded in the WNV circulation area, which was characterized by warmer and less rainy conditions and greater evapotranspiration compared to the rest of the Pianura Padana, suggesting that areas exposed to these conditions are more suitable for WNV circulation. This observation highlights warmer and less rainy conditions as factors able to enhance WNV circulation and cause virus spillover outside the sylvatic cycle.     

The backward bifurcation in compartmental models for West Nile virus

In all of the West Nile virus (WNV) compartmental models in the literature, the basic reproduction number serves as a crucial control threshold for the eradication of the virus. However, our study suggests that backward bifurcation is a common property shared by the available compartmental models with a logistic type of growth for the population of host birds. There exists a subthreshold condition for the outbreak of the virus due to the existence of backward bifurcation. In this paper, we first review and give a comparison study of the four available compartmental models for the virus, and focus on the analysis of the model proposed by Cruz-Pacheco et al. to explore the backward bifurcation in the model. Our comparison study suggests that the mosquito population dynamics itself cannot explain the occurrence of the backward bifurcation, it is the higher mortality rate of the avian host due to the infection that determines the existence of backward bifurcation.     

西尼罗病毒研究进展

西尼罗病毒（West Nile virus,WNV）属黄病毒科,为正单链RNA病毒。它在人类中的感染导致以发热为主要症状的传染性疾病,主要由蚊虫叮咬传播。自20世纪50年代首例报告西尼罗病毒自然感染所致脑炎后的几十年内,西尼罗病毒脑炎在欧洲及中亚地区散在、小规模流行。西尼罗病毒脑炎于1999年在美国的爆发及随后几年在北美的流行引起了极大的关注。这次爆发流行中新出现的种种迹象,如其中间宿主——野生鸟类的大量死亡,人类感染者中中枢神经系统受损比例的增高等,提示近期的遗传变异已使西尼罗病毒感染的病理学与流行病学发生了较显著的变化。另外,随着感染的流行,蚊虫叮咬以外的传播途径,如输血、器官移植、母婴传播等日益受到人们重视。同时,人们对阻止疫情所急需的疫苗的研制也在进行之中。本文就近几年来对西尼罗病毒的感染、免疫与流行病学方面的研究进展进行了综述。     

Fine-scale variation in vector host use and force of infection drive localized patterns of West Nile virus transmission

The influence of host diversity on multi-host pathogen transmission and persistence can be confounded by the large number of species and biological interactions that can characterize many transmission systems. For vector-borne pathogens, the composition of host communities has been hypothesized to affect transmission; however, the specific characteristics of host communities that affect transmission remain largely unknown. We tested the hypothesis that vector host use and force of infection (i.e., the summed number of infectious mosquitoes resulting from feeding upon each vertebrate host within a community of hosts), and not simply host diversity or richness, determine local infection rates of West Nile virus (WNV) in mosquito vectors. In suburban Chicago, Illinois, USA, we estimated community force of infection for West Nile virus using data on Culex pipiens mosquito host selection and WNV vertebrate reservoir competence for each host species in multiple residential and semi-natural study sites. We found host community force of infection interacted with avian diversity to influence WNV infection in Culex mosquitoes across the study area. Two avian species, the American robin (Turdus migratorius) and the house sparrow (Passer domesticus), produced 95.8% of the infectious Cx. pipiens mosquitoes and showed a significant positive association with WNV infection in Culex spp. mosquitoes. Therefore, indices of community structure, such as species diversity or richness, may not be reliable indicators of transmission risk at fine spatial scales in vector-borne disease systems. Rather, robust assessment of local transmission risk should incorporate heterogeneity in vector host feeding and variation in vertebrate reservoir competence at the spatial scale of vector-host interaction.     

Remote Sensing of Climatic Anomalies and West Nile Virus Incidence in the Northern Great Plains of the United States

The northern Great Plains (NGP) of the United States has been a hotspot of West Nile virus (WNV) incidence since 2002. Mosquito ecology and the transmission of vector-borne disease are influenced by multiple environmental factors, and climatic variability is an important driver of inter-annual variation in WNV transmission risk. This study applied multiple environmental predictors including land surface temperature (LST), the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and actual evapotranspiration (ETa) derived from Moderate-Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products to establish prediction models for WNV risk in the NGP. These environmental metrics are sensitive to seasonal and inter-annual fluctuations in temperature and precipitation, and are hypothesized to influence mosquito population dynamics and WNV transmission. Non-linear generalized additive models (GAMs) were used to evaluate the influences of deviations of cumulative LST, NDVI, and ETa on inter-annual variations of WNV incidence from 2004–2010. The models were sensitive to the timing of spring green up (measured with NDVI), temperature variability in early spring and summer (measured with LST), and moisture availability from late spring through early summer (measured with ETa), highlighting seasonal changes in the influences of climatic fluctuations on WNV transmission. Predictions based on these variables indicated a low WNV risk across the NGP in 2011, which is concordant with the low case reports in this year. Environmental monitoring using remote-sensed data can contribute to surveillance of WNV risk and prediction of future WNV outbreaks in space and time.     

Culex pipiens and Stegomyia albopicta (= Aedes albopictus) populations as vectors for lineage 1 and 2 West Nile virus in Europe

The emerging disease West Nile fever is caused by West Nile virus (WNV), one of the most widespread arboviruses. This study represents the first test of the vectorial competence of European Culex pipiens Linnaeus 1758 and Stegomyia albopicta (= Aedes albopictus) (both: Diptera: Culicidae) populations for lineage 1 and 2 WNV isolated in Europe. Culex pipiens and S. albopicta populations were susceptible to WNV infection, had disseminated infection, and were capable of transmitting both WNV lineages. This is the first WNV competence assay to maintain mosquito specimens under environmental conditions mimicking the field (day/night) conditions associated with the period of maximum expected WNV activity. The importance of environmental conditions is discussed and the issue of how previous experiments conducted in fixed high temperatures may have overestimated WNV vector competence results with respect to natural environmental conditions is analysed. The information presented should be useful to policymakers and public health authorities for establishing effective WNV surveillance and vector control programmes. This would improve preparedness to prevent future outbreaks.     

Predictive mapping of human risk for West Nile virus (WNV) based on environmental and socioeconomic factors

A West Nile virus (WNV) human risk map was developed for Suffolk County, New York utilizing a case-control approach to explore the association between the risk of vector-borne WNV and habitat, landscape, virus activity, and socioeconomic variables derived from publically available datasets. Results of logistic regression modeling for the time period between 2000 and 2004 revealed that higher proportion of population with college education, increased habitat fragmentation, and proximity to WNV positive mosquito pools were strongly associated with WNV human risk. Similar to previous investigations from north-central US, this study identified middle class suburban neighborhoods as the areas with the highest WNV human risk. These results contrast with similar studies from the southern and western US, where the highest WNV risk was associated with low income areas. This discrepancy may be due to regional differences in vector ecology, urban environment, or human behavior. Geographic Information Systems (GIS) analytical tools were used to integrate the risk factors in the 2000-2004 logistic regression model generating WNV human risk map. In 2005-2010, 41 out of 46 (89%) of WNV human cases occurred either inside of (30 cases) or in close proximity (11 cases) to the WNV high risk areas predicted by the 2000-2004 model. The novel approach employed by this study may be implemented by other municipal, local, or state public health agencies to improve geographic risk estimates for vector-borne diseases based on a small number of acute human cases.     

Multi-year evolutionary dynamics of West Nile virus in suburban Chicago,USA, 2005–2007

West Nile virus has evolved in concert with its expansion across North America, but little is known about the evolutionary dynamics of the virus on local scales. We analysed viral nucleotide sequences from mosquitoes collected in 2005, 2006, and 2007 from a known transmission ‘hot spot’ in suburban Chicago, USA. Within this approximately 11 × 14 km area, the viral envelope gene has increased approximately 0.1% yr⁻¹ in nucleotide-level genetic diversity. In each year, viral diversity was higher in ‘residential’ sites characterized by dense housing than in more open ‘urban green space’ sites such as cemeteries and parks. Phylodynamic analyses showed an increase in incidence around 2005, consistent with a higher-than-average peak in mosquito and human infection rates that year. Analyses of times to most recent common ancestor suggest that WNV in 2005 and 2006 may have arisen predominantly from viruses present during 2004 and 2005, respectively, but that WNV in 2007 had an older common ancestor, perhaps indicating a predominantly mixed or exogenous origin. These results show that the population of WNV in suburban Chicago is an admixture of viruses that are both locally derived and introduced from elsewhere, containing evolutionary information aggregated across a breadth of spatial and temporal scales.     

Mosquito saliva causes enhancement of West Nile virus infection in mice

West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted to vertebrate hosts primarily by infected Culex mosquitoes. Transmission of arboviruses by the bite of infected mosquitoes can potentiate infection in hosts compared to viral infection by needle inoculation. Here we examined the effect of mosquito transmission on WNV infection and systematically investigated multiple factors that differ between mosquito infection and needle inoculation of WNV. We found that mice infected with WNV through the bite of a single infected Culex tarsalis mosquito exhibited 5- to 10-fold-higher viremia and tissue titers at 24 and 48 h postinoculation and faster neuroinvasion than mice given a median mosquito-inoculated dose of WNV (10(5) PFU) by needle. Mosquito-induced enhancement was not due to differences in inoculation location, because additional intravenous inoculation of WNV did not enhance viremia or tissue titers. Inoculation of WNV into a location where uninfected mosquitoes had fed resulted in enhanced viremia and tissue titers in mice similar to those in mice infected by a single infected mosquito bite, suggesting that differences in where virus is deposited in the skin and in the virus particle itself were not responsible for the enhanced early infection in mosquito-infected mice. In addition, inoculation of mice with WNV mixed with salivary gland extract (SGE) led to higher viremia, demonstrating that mosquito saliva is the major cause of mosquito-induced enhancement. Enhanced viremia was not observed when SGE was inoculated at a distal site, suggesting that SGE enhances WNV replication by exerting a local effect. Furthermore, enhancement of WNV infection still occurred in mice with antibodies against mosquito saliva. In conclusion, saliva from C. tarsalis is responsible for enhancement of early WNV infection in vertebrate hosts.     

How public reaction to disease information across scales and the impacts of vector control methods influence disease prevalence and control efficacy

With the development of social media, the information about vector-borne disease incidence over broad spatial scales can cause demand for local vector control before local risk exists. Anticipatory intervention may still benefit local disease control efforts; however, infection risks are not the only focal concerns governing public demand for vector control. Concern for environmental contamination from pesticides and economic limitations on the frequency and magnitude of control measures also play key roles. Further, public concern may be focused more on ecological factors (i.e., controlling mosquito populations) or on epidemiological factors (i.e., controlling infection-carrying mosquitoes), which may lead to very different control outcomes. Here we introduced a generic Ross-MacDonald model, incorporating these factors under three spatial scales of disease information: local, regional, and global. We tailored and parameterized the model for Zika virus transmitted by Aedes aegypti mosquito. We found that sensitive reactivity caused by larger-scale incidence information could decrease average human infections per patch breeding capacity, however, the associated increase in total control effort plays a larger role, which leads to an overall decrease in control efficacy. The shift of focal concerns from epidemiological to ecological risk could relax the negative effect of the sensitive reactivity on control efficacy when mosquito breeding capacity populations are expected to be large. This work demonstrates that, depending on expected total mosquito breeding capacity population size, and weights of different focal concerns, large-scale disease information can reduce disease infections without lowering control efficacy. Our findings provide guidance for vector-control strategies by considering public reaction through social media.