小叶栎分布格局对末次盛冰期以来气候变化的响应

小叶栎(Quercus chenii)是华东植物区系的代表树种, 具有很高的生态、经济价值。为重建冰期以来小叶栎地理分布格局的变迁历史、了解环境因子对潜在地理分布的制约机制, 为小叶栎种质资源保护和管理提供科学依据, 该研究基于55条分布记录和8个环境变量, 利用MaxEnt模型模拟小叶栎在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和2070年(温室气体排放情景为典型浓度目标8.5)的潜在分布区, 利用多元环境相似度面和最不相似变量分析探讨气候变迁过程中环境异常区域和引起潜在地理分布改变的关键因素, 综合应用贡献率及置换重要值比较、Jackknife检验评估制约现代地理分布的主要因子, 采用响应曲线确定环境变量的适宜区间。研究结果表明: MaxEnt模型的预测准确度极高, 受试者工作特征曲线下的面积(AUC值)达0.9869 ± 0.0045; 现代高度适宜区在安徽南部、浙江西部、江西东北部和湖北东部; 影响小叶栎地理分布的主要气候因子为气温和降水量, 气温更重要; 最干季平均气温可能是制约小叶栎向北分布的关键因素; 末次盛冰期时, 小叶栎高度适宜区位于东海大陆架内; 全新世中期适宜分布区轮廓已与现代近似; 2070年适宜分布区向北移, 高度适宜区面积增大, 与末次盛冰期、全新世中期和现代相比, 这一时期的气候异常程度最高。气温季节变化和降水季节变化可能是引起地理分布变迁的重要气候因素。     

末次盛冰期以来观光木的潜在地理分布变迁

观光木(Tsoongiodendron odorum)是木兰科的古老残遗物种, 目前正面临严峻的生存威胁, 属于极小种群濒危植物。通过生态位模型(ENM)能够重建观光木地理分布格局的历史变迁, 探究气候变化对该物种分布的影响, 并了解其地理分布与气候需求间的关系, 从而为全球变暖背景下观光木的保护提供理论基础。该文基于96条现代分布记录和8个环境变量, 采用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型模拟观光木在末次盛冰期、全新世中期、现代和未来(2061-2080年, RCP 8.5)的潜在分布区, 利用SDM toolbox分析观光木的地理空间变化, 并综合贡献率、置换重要值和Jackknife检验来评估气候因子的重要性。研究结果表明: (1)观光木的高度适生区在南岭地区, 末次盛冰期时没有大尺度向南退缩, 很可能在山区避难所原地存活; (2)在全新世中期和未来两个增温的气候情境下, 观光木的分布区均表现为缩减, 其中未来分布的减幅更大, 表明气候变暖对观光木的生长有一定的负面影响; (3)总体上看, 观光木各个时期的地理分布范围相对稳定, 说明观光木对气候变化有一定的适应能力, 人为活动或自身繁育问题可能是致濒的重要原因, 并建议对广东和广西群体进行优先保护。     

孑遗灌木长柄扁桃的历史分布格局及其环境驱动力

为了解历史气候变化背景下分布于中国西北干旱沙漠、半干旱沙地和山地地区的孑遗灌木植物长柄扁桃(Amygdalus pedunculata)的分布与演化, 该研究利用长柄扁桃60个自然分布点和8个环境因子, 整合GIS空间分析和最大熵模型(MaxEnt), 分析珍稀濒危保护物种长柄扁桃末次间冰期(LIG)、末次盛冰期(LGM)和当前的历史地理分布格局变化及其环境驱动力。基于各时期长柄扁桃的分布模型模拟数据及自然种群的叶绿体基因测序数据, 利用最小成本路径方法, 模拟LIG时期以来长柄扁桃可能的扩散路径。利用R语言“ggbiplot”程序包对各时期长柄扁桃适生区的历史环境变量进行主成分分析(PCA), 分析影响长柄扁桃历史分布格局变化的关键气候因子。结果表明: (1) LIG时期以来, 长柄扁桃的历史分布经历了显著收缩和末次盛冰期后的扩张, LIG至LGM时期, 分布于库布齐沙漠东部、毛乌素沙地北部、陕西北部、阴山北部、乌兰察布高原南部、浑善达克沙地的适宜分布区明显收缩; LGM时期至今, 长柄扁桃在库布齐沙漠东部、毛乌素沙地中部沿北部阴山向东, 以及浑善达克沙地西部均发生了显著扩张。3个时期长柄扁桃均在内蒙古高原中西部存在高度适宜性分布区, 包括毛乌素沙地北缘、库布齐沙漠东缘以及大青山, 这些地区很可能是长柄扁桃的冰期避难所。北部阴山和毛乌素沙地边缘是长柄扁桃种群迁移过程中重要的扩散廊道; (2) LIG至LGM时期, 气温因子: 最冷月最低气温、平均气温日较差和最热月最高气温均呈显著下降的趋势, 冷干气候对长柄扁桃的冰期分布存在较大限制, 适生区显著收缩。而LGM时期至今, 降水因子最湿月降水量和降水量季节性均显著上升, 长柄扁桃在库布齐沙漠东部、毛乌素沙地中部、阴山以及浑善达克沙地西部发生显著扩张, 降水因子也是影响当前适宜分布区的关键限制性因子。     

Impact of climate change on suitable distribution range and spatial pattern in Amygdalus mongolica

为模拟、预测气候变化对孑遗、濒危植物蒙古扁桃(Amygdalus mongolica)潜在分布的影响, 利用最大熵(MAXENT)模型模拟、预测、对比、分析、揭示蒙古扁桃在最大冰期(CCSM及MIROC模型)、历史气候(1961-1990年)及未来气候(2020年、2050年和2080年, 政府间气候变化专门委员会排放情景特别报告的A2A情景)条件下的适宜分布范围和空间格局的变化。结果表明: (1)蒙古扁桃在历史气候条件下的潜在分布区集中在蒙古的南戈壁省及东戈壁省, 我国内蒙古巴彦淖尔市、阿拉善左旗、鄂尔多斯市、锡林郭勒盟西部, 河西走廊中部及东部, 宁夏北部及陕西北部, 以及河北北部的部分地区; (2)与历史气候条件下的潜在分布相比, 蒙古扁桃在最大冰期CCSM气候情景下的分布经历了明显的、大范围的向南迁移和范围缩小; (3)未来A2A气候情景下, 其潜在分布范围表现出在2020年明显扩大, 在2050年减小, 到2080年又略有增大的趋势。分布格局表现出不断向我国河北及内蒙古东部, 蒙古东部、北部及西部大幅度扩散、迁移的趋势。     

Predictions of potential geographical distribution of Sinopodophyllum hexandrum under climate change

桃儿七(Sinopodophyllum hexandrum)为小檗科多年生草本植物, 是我国濒危传统藏药, 预测气候变化对该物种分布范围的影响对于其保护和资源可持续利用具有重要意义。该文利用获得的桃儿七136个地理分布记录和21个气候环境图层, 通过MaxEnt模型分析桃儿七在我国西部七省的潜在地理分布, 并基于该模型预测政府间气候变化专门委员会(IPCC)发布的SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1气候情景下21世纪20、50和80年代桃儿七分布范围。结果表明: 最热季平均温度、年降水量、温度季节性变动系数和等温性是影响桃儿七分布的主要气候因子; 在当前气候条件下, 桃儿七适宜的生境面积占研究区总面积的11.71%, 主要集中在青藏高原东缘的四川、甘肃、青海境内次生植被丰富、地形复杂的高海拔地区, 低适宜生境与不适宜生境分别占研究区总面积的15.86%与72.43%。由模型预测可知, 在SRES-A1B、SRES-A2和SRES-B1三种情景下, 桃儿七在研究区低适宜生境的数量相对变化较小, 在适宜生境先大幅减少后又缓慢增加。研究结果同时表明, 在未来气候变化条件下, 桃儿七的适宜生境平均海拔将逐渐升高, 范围以及几何重心极有可能先向北移, 然后再向西延伸至青藏高原内部较高海拔的山区。     

An evaluation of four threshold selection methods in species occurrence modelling with random forest: Case studies with Davidia involucrata and Cunninghamia lanceolata

Aims Predictive species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied in resource assessment, environmental conservation and biodiversity management. However, most SDM models often yield a predicted probability (suitability) surface map. In conservation and environmental management practices, the information presented as species presence/absence (binary) may be more practical than presented as probability or suitability. Therefore, a threshold is needed to transform the probability or suitability data to presence/absence data. However, little is known about the effects of different threshold-selection methods on model performance and species range changes induced by future climate. Of the numerous SDM models, random forest (RF) can produce probabilistic and binary species distribution maps based on its regression and classification algorisms, respectively. Studies dealing with the comparative test of the performances of RF regression and classification algorisms have not been reported.
Methods Here, the RF was used to simulate the current and project the future potential distributions of Davidia involucrata and Cunninghamia lanceolata. Then, four threshold-setting methods (Default 0.5, MaxKappa, MaxTSS and MaxACC) were selected and used to transform modelled probabilities of occurrence into binary predictions of species presence and absence. Lastly, we investigated the difference in model performance among the threshold selection methods by using five model accuracy measures (Kappa, TSS, Overall accuracy, Sensitivity and Specificity). We also used the map similarity measure, Kappa, for a cell-by-cell comparison of similarities and differences of distribution map under current and future climates.
Important findings We found that the choice of threshold method altered estimates of model performance, species habitat suitable area and species range shifts under future climate. The difference in selected threshold cut-offs among the four threshold methods was significant for D. involucrata, but was not significant for C. lanceolata. Species’ geographic ranges changed (area change and shifting distance) in response to climate change, but the projections of the four threshold methods did not differ significantly with respect to how much or in which direction, but they did differ against RF classification predictions. The pairwise similarity analysis of binary maps indicated that spatial correspondence among prediction maps was the highest between the MaxKappa and the MaxTSS, and lowest between RF classification algorism and the four threshold-setting methods. We argue that the MaxTSS and the MaxKappa are promising methods for threshold selection when RF regression algorism is used for the distribution modeling of species. This study also provides promising insights to our understanding of the uncertainty of threshold selection in species distribution modeling.     

末次盛冰期以来气候变化对中国山荆子分布格局的影响

山荆子(Malus baccata (L.) Borkh.)具有较高的观赏、经济价值,是苹果属(Malus)植物的重要种质资源。本文利用ENMeval数据包调整Max Ent模型的调控倍频和特征组合参数,根据602条现代分布记录和筛选的8个生物气候变量,模拟预测山荆子在末次盛冰期、中全新世、现代、2070年(RCP 8.5) 4个时期的潜在分布区。采用贡献率、置换重要值比较和刀切法进行检验,综合分析各环境变量对山荆子潜在地理分布的影响。结果显示,当RM值为2、FC为LQHPT时,Max Ent模型的复杂度和过拟合程度较低,该参数下AUC值的均值为0.9272±0.0019,表明模型预测极准确;山荆子现代高度适生区为山西的太行山、管涔山和吕梁山,吉林、辽宁东北部,陕甘宁交界处,河北北部,鲁中南地区;末次盛冰期山荆子适生区整体上显著向东南偏移,北方的高度适生区消失;中全新世适生区轮廓与现代基本一致,但略微有向高海拔地区收缩的趋势; 2070年山荆子在国内的适生区将向高海拔地区急剧收缩,中度、高度适生区面积急剧减少;山荆子现代潜在地理分布受温度和降水因子的共同影响,但后者的影响更大。本研究预测气候变化对山荆子分布范围的影响,将对其种质资源保护和管理提供重要的参考价值。     

Predicting the global areas for potential distribution of Gastrodia elata based on ecological niche models

Aims Previous studies on the globally suitable areas for growing the medicinal plant Gastrodia elata is lacking. This study aims to predict the global areas for potential distribution of this plant based on multiple ecological niche models. Methods A total of 220 global distribution points of G. elata and 19 ecological variables were compiled and eight environmental variables were selected for the model training. Three ecological niche models, including BIOCLIM, DOMAIN, and MAXENT, were used to predict the global areas for potential distribution of G. elata. The resulting data of different models were analyzed and compared with two statistical criteria: the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and Kappa value. Important findings The predictions of the three models are basically identical, showing that the global areas for potential distribution of G. elata are predominantly in the range of 20° N to 50° N in Asia, mainly in China, South Korea and Japan. A small proportion of the suitable areas occur in India, Nepal and the European countries near Mediterranean. The most suitable areas distribute in provinces close to the Sichuan Basin and the central East China, the mid-eastern parts of South Korea such as Chungcheongbuk-do, Gyeongsangbuk-do and Gyeongsangnam- do, and the Kyushu region and the Shikoku region on Japan’s main island. Therefore, these three countries can be used as the main production areas of G. elata for its commercial development. The AUC average values of the three models are all above 0.9 and the Kappa average values all above 0.65, justifying their applications for predicting the potential areas of G. elata. Among them, the MAXENT model appears to perform the best, followed by DOMAIN and BIOCLIM.     

吉林老白山鱼鳞云杉树轮蓝光强度和轮宽指数与气候响应关系随海拔变化的对比

树轮数据是晚全新世古气候研究中最重要的代用指标。树轮参数各具优缺点, 蓝光强度(BI)是一种获取成本低廉的最大晚材密度(MXD)的光学替代参数, 其蓝色光反射率或强度最小值(256-BI)与相应的MXD值高度相关, 被很多的学者认为是树轮气候学研究中一个具有重要潜能的新兴参数。该研究以吉林老白山3个海拔(900、1 200和1 500 m)的鱼鳞云杉(Picea jezoensis)为例, 分析鱼鳞云杉的BI及轮宽指数(RWI)与气候因子的响应差异, 以期为BI参数在树轮气候学的进一步应用提供参考。结果表明: 不同海拔鱼鳞云杉BI或RWI对气候的响应趋势基本一致。BI与温度主要呈正相关关系, 而RWI与温度主要呈负相关关系, 其中BI与当年夏季及生长季最高温度显著正相关, 而RWI (低、中海拔)与全年平均气温、当年生长季和全年最低温度显著负相关。BI与当年夏季标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)显著负相关, RWI与夏季SPEI负相关关系较弱或为正相关; BI和RWI几乎相反的生长-气候关系可能是早、晚材权衡关系的体现。研究区域鱼鳞云杉的BI参数可能与年轮宽度记录不同的气候信号, 在空间尺度上对于当年夏季降水、最高温度以及SPEI的响应好于传统宽度指标。BI与主要气候因子相关关系的时间稳定性好于RWI, 因此, BI在树轮气候学的研究中具有一定的应用潜能。     

基于最大熵模型的狸尾豆属植物在中国的潜在分布区模拟

基于19个气候因子和203条狸尾豆属（Uraria）植物地理分布记录，采用最大熵模型（MaxEnt）对植物当前分布点的气候变量进行分析，推断其在末次盛冰期（LGM）、当前和未来气候（2070s）情景下的潜在分布；采用受试者工作曲线和刀切法对模型的准确性进行检验并探明影响该属在中国分布的气候因子。结果显示：最大熵模型模拟结果极准确，测试集和训练集假阳性值（AUC）分别达到0.934和0.936；影响该属植物分布的主要气候因子是最暖季节降水和最冷月份最低温度；广西、广东及台湾地区为该属在中国的起源中心。在全球气候变暖背景下，狸尾豆属植物的适生环境将向中国北部及东部沿海地区推移，且面积逐渐增加。     

Seasonality and drivers of stem CO2 efflux for four temperate coniferous tree species

Aims Stem CO₂ efflux (E_s) is an important component of annual carbon budget in forest ecosystems, but how biotic and environmental factors regulate seasonal and inter-specific variations in E_s is poorly understood. The objectives of this study were: (1) to compare seasonal dynamics in E_s for four temperate coniferous tree species in northeastern China, including Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis), Korean spruce (Picea koraiensis), Mongolian pine (Pinus sylvestris var. mongolica), and Dahurian larch (Larix gmelinii); and (2) to explore factors driving the inter-specific variability in E_s during the growing and non-growing seasons.
Methods Ten to twelve trees for each tree species were sampled for E_s and stem temperature at 1 cm depth beneath the bark (T_s) measurements in situ with an infrared gas analyzer (LI-6400 IRGA) and a digital thermometer, respectively, from July to October 2013 and March to July 2014. The daily stem circumference increment (S_i), sapwood nitrogen concentration ([N]), and related environmental factors were monitored simultaneously.
Important findings The temporal variation in E_s for the four tree species overall followed the changes in T_s throughout the study period, with the maxima occurring in the summer months (late May to early July) characterized by higher temperature and more rapid stem growth and the minima in spring (late March to April) or autumn (October) having lower temperature. T_s accounted for 42%-91% and 56%-89% of variations in E_s during the growing (May to September) and non-growing (other months) seasons, respectively. Furthermore, apart from T_s, we also found significant regression relationships between E_s and S_i, relative air humidity and [N] during the growing season, but their forms and correlation coefficients were species-dependent. These results indicated that T_s was the dominant environmental factor affecting seasonal variations in E_s, but the magnitude of the effect varied with tree species and growth rhythm. Mean E_s for each of the four tree species was significantly higher in the growing season than in the non-growing season, whereas within the season there were also significant differences in mean E_s among the tree species (all p < 0.05). The temperature sensitivity of E_s (Q₁₀ value) did not differ significantly among the tree species during the growing season, ranging from 1.64 for Dahurian larch to 2.09 for Mongolian pine, but did differ during the non-growing season which varied from 1.80 for Korean pine to 3.14 for Dahurian larch. Moreover, Korean spruce, Mongolian pine and Dahurian larch had significantly greater Q₁₀ values in the non-growing season than in the growing season (p < 0.05). These findings suggested that the differences of the response of E_s to temperature change for different tree species were mainly from the non-growing season. Because the seasonality and inter-specific variability in E_s for these temperate coniferous tree species were primarily controlled by multiple factors such as temperature, we conclude that using a single annual temperature response curve to estimate the annual E_s may lead to more uncertainty.     

Soil water use strategy of dominant species in typical natural and planted shrubs in loess hilly region

Aims Artemisia gmelinii is a dominant specie naturally established after abandonment of cultivated lands in the Loess Plateau, and Caragana korshinskii is one of the main planted shrub species to control soil erosion. Improved understanding of water use strategies of these two species is of great significance to evaluate the sustainable development of the Loess Plateau under the trend of climate warming and increasing drought events.
Methods Stable oxygen-18 isotope was used to determine seasonal variations in the water sources of native A. gmelinii communities established after abandonment of cultivated lands for 7 and 30 years and planted C. korshinskii after 30 years. The contributions of soil water from different depths to water uptake were estimated by the MixSIR Bayesian mixing model. The geometric mean regression method was used to fit the line of precipitation to get the local meteoric water line (LWML).
Important findings The stable hydrogen isotope rate (δD) and stable oxygen isotope rate (δ¹⁸O) of soil water and xylem water plotted to the right side of the LWML, indicating that the isotopic compositions of soil water were enriched due to evaporation. The native A. gmelinii communities established after abandonment of cultivated lands for 7 years and planted C. korshinskii after 30 years showed plasticity in switching water sources from different soil layers, extracting water from shallow soil (0-40 cm) when soil water was available, but deeper soil (40-80 cm) when shallow soil water was dry. In contrast, A. gmelinii growing in site after cultivation abandonment for 30 years mainly relied on water from the surface soil (0-10 cm) throughout the growing season. Our results suggest that the ability of A. gmelinii to compete for soil water reduces with aging of the community while the planted C. korshinskii will have competitive advantage under the condition of increasing frequency of drought events in the future.     

南盘江流域云南松径向生长对气候暖干化的响应

全球气候变暖背景下, 西南地区气候呈现出明显的暖干化特征, 但区域优势树种云南松(Pinus yunnanensis)对气候暖干化的响应存在不确定性。该研究根据树木年代学方法选择研究区域87株云南松样本进行树芯采集, 构建云南松树轮年表, 结合1952-2016年的气温和降水等气象资料, 利用响应分析、多元回归分析以及滑动相关分析等方法研究了影响南盘江流域云南松径向生长的关键气候因子及其对气候暖干化的响应规律。研究结果表明: 1985年以来, 研究区域气候暖干化特征明显, 气温上升和降水量下降的速率是1984年前的5和6倍, 年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温的上升速率为0.044、0.041和0.050 ℃·a ^-1, 年降水量的下降速率为 6.02 mm·a ^-1。气候暖干化使云南松的生长对温度响应的敏感度降低, 对水分响应的敏感度增强, 气温的解释率由暖干化前的44.95%下降到21.97%, 水分的解释率由暖干化前的55.05%上升到78.03%。暖干化增强了当年气候因子对径向生长的影响, 减弱了上年气候因子的影响, 与径向生长显著相关的当年气候因子增加了3个, 当年气候因子对径向生长的解释率增加了16.05%。暖干化减弱了云南松生长的“滞后效应”, 气候变化对树木生长影响的时效性增强。在5-7月和9-11月, 气候变暖使径向生长与气温、水分的响应关系变得不稳定。该研究可为气候暖干化区域云南松林的经营、管理以及区域气候重建提供理论依据和基础数据。     

Population structure and spatial pattern of Caragana tibetica communities in Nei Mongol shrub-encroached grassland

Aims The community structure and function of the shrub-encroached grassland, as well as its formation mechanism, is one of hot scientific problems in vegetation science. The spatial pattern analysis is an important means for studying plant population interactions and the relationships between plant population and environment. The shrub-encroached grassland is one major vegetation type in Nei Mongol. Knowledge on the spatial pattern of shrub can improve our understanding on adaptive characteristics of shrub to steppe environment.
Methods We chose Caragana tibetica encroached grassland distributed in Ordos City as research objects. The spatial position of each C. tibetica individual in 64 m × 64 m study plot was determined by a method of “three-distance location method”, and then the spatial pattern and intraspecific associations of C. tibetica individuals was analyzed with the point pattern analysis.
Important findings The results showed that C. tibetica population was at the rising stage. The mature individuals showed a uniform distribution at the scale of less than 3.7 m, subsequently exhibiting a random distribution with an increased scale. The juvenile individuals showed an aggregation distribution at the scale of 0.3-20.4 m, but a uniform distribution at other scales. The dead C. tibetica individuals were distributed aggregately at the scale from 0.7 to 1.4 m, but randomly at other scales. An indistinctive positive association was found for live C. tibetica individuals to dead individuals at the scale of less than 9.9 m, but no associations was found between them at other scales. The mature individuals negatively interacted with juveniles at the scale of larger than 2.2 m, but unassociated at the other scales.     

A Quaternary perspective on the conservation prospects of the Tertiary relict tree Prunus lusitanica L.

Aim  To assess the importance of climate and human pressure as factors limiting the past, present and future distribution of Prunus lusitanica L. (the Portuguese laurel), a relict of Europe's ancient subtropical laurel-forest flora.
Location  The Iberian Peninsula.
Methods  A census was taken of the current populations of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula and the threats they face. The potential distribution of the species was modelled under current climatic conditions and under simulations of the climate for the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM), the mid-Holocene and the year 2080.
Results  The present total population of 31,000 individuals is largely distributed as small, fragmented subpopulations, often threatened by agriculture or forestry. The species' current range is much smaller than its potentially suitable range. During the LGM, P. lusitanica would have been constrained to a limited number of sites along the Atlantic coast. In the mid-Holocene, its potential range was much wider than during the LGM and similar to that of the present day. Under the 2080 climate scenario its potential range is reduced by almost 40% compared to that of the present. This reduction includes the loss of territories currently home to three-quarters of its Iberian population.
Main conclusions  Drastic climatic changes and the existence of refugia are usually invoked to explain the rarity and fragmented distribution – yet persistence – of a subtropical flora in southern Europe. The availability of climatically suitable habitats is, however, not necessarily the main factor limiting its distribution. Human impact would appear to have been – and continues to be – of fundamental importance in the current population sizes and potential range of P. lusitanica in the Iberian Peninsula.     

泥炭地特征性环境因子促进泥炭藓持久孢子库的形成

研究泥炭地特征性环境因子——淹水、少氧和化感物质对泥炭藓孢子持久性的影响, 可深入理解泥炭地泥炭藓持久孢子库的形成机制, 为退化泥炭地泥炭藓地被恢复研究提供参考。该研究以藓丘种和丘间种两种泥炭藓的孢子为试验材料, 通过室内模拟控制实验的方法, 研究泥炭藓孢子在空气、超纯水、泥炭地地表水和泥炭藓沥出液中, 及3种速率充气下, 孢子萌发力持久性的变化。经充气处理后, 泥炭藓孢子持久性显著低于不充气处理。不充气时, 泥炭藓孢子在含有化感物质的泥炭地地表水和泥炭藓沥出液中保存, 持久性显著高于在超纯水中保存。通径分析结果显示, 溶解氧是影响泥炭地泥炭藓孢子持久性的主要因子和限制因子, 养分元素氮(TN)和磷(TP)的浓度为孢子持久性的负作用因子。研究结果表明, 泥炭藓孢子散布于苔藓地被基质或淹水的丘间生境中, 比暴露于空气或在无化感物质的水中, 能更好地维持萌发力。泥炭地中, 泥炭藓孢子和其他植物的繁殖体的超长寿命可能归因于少氧、养分贫乏和丰富的化感物质等泥炭地特征性环境因子。     

西南地区红花龙胆分布格局模拟与气候变化影响评价

应用最大熵(MaxEnt)模型,基于230条分布记录及33个气候因子数据,模拟全新世中期(约6000年前)、当前时期(1950—2000年)和未来(2050s、2070s)气候条件下,红花龙胆西南地区的潜在分布范围;结合多元统计分析和ArcGIS空间分析,筛选影响物种分布的关键气候因子,探讨不同分布区对气候变化的敏感性.结果表明: 模型训练集AUC值为0.942,验证集AUC值为0.849,表明模型预测的准确性较高.5个气候因子(7月最高气温、8月最低气温、昼夜温差与年温差比值、7月最低气温和6月最低气温)对模型贡献最大,累计贡献率达59.9%.随未来气候变化,红花龙胆适生区将呈现先减少后增加的变化趋势,在RCP 8.5情景下,至2070s阶段,西南地区红花龙胆适宜生境总面积与当前气候条件相比减少15.0%,但云南境内适生区和高适生区面积较当前分别增加32.8%和32.7%.红花龙胆适宜生长于温暖、湿润的气候条件下,气候变暖明显影响着适宜生境的面积和范围,尤其低海拔分布区对气候变化较敏感,适宜生境退缩严重,而高海拔地区由于降水、温度条件的改善适宜生境有所增加.随着全球气候的变化,未来西南地区红花龙胆主要分布区可能向西迁移,并向更高海拔扩张.     

Spatial variation and controlling factors of temperature sensitivity of soil respiration in forest ecosystems across China

土壤呼吸的温度敏感性(Q₁₀)是陆地碳循环与气候系统间相互作用的关键参数。尽管已有大量关于不同类型森林Q₁₀季节和年际变化规律的研究, 但是对Q₁₀在区域尺度的空间变异特征及其影响因素仍认识不足, 已有结果缺乏一致结论。该研究通过整合已发表论文, 构建了中国森林生态系统年尺度Q₁₀数据集, 共包含399条记录、5种森林类型(落叶阔叶林(DBF)、落叶针叶林(DNF)、常绿阔叶林(EBF)、常绿针叶林(ENF)、混交林(MF))。分析了不同森林类型Q₁₀的空间变异特征及其与地理、气候和土壤因素的关系。结果显示, 1) Q₁₀介于1.09到6.24之间, 平均值(±标准误差)为2.37 (± 0.04), 且在不同森林类型之间无显著差异; 2)当考虑所有森林类型时, Q₁₀随纬度、海拔、土壤有机碳含量(SOC)和土壤全氮含量(TN)的增加而增大, 随经度、年平均气温(MAT)、平均年降水量(MAP)的增加而减小。气候(MAT、MAP)和土壤(SOC、TN)因素间存在相互作用, 共同解释了33%的Q₁₀空间变异, 其中MAT和SOC是Q₁₀空间变异的主要驱动因素; 3)不同类型森林Q₁₀对气候和土壤因素的响应存在差异。在DNF中Q₁₀随MAP的增加而减小, 而其他类型森林中Q₁₀与MAP无显著相关性; 在EBF、DBF、ENF中Q₁₀随TN的增加而增大, 但Q₁₀对TN的敏感性在EBF中最高, 在ENF中最低。这些结果表明, 尽管Q₁₀有一定的集中分布趋势, 但仍有较大范围的空间变异, 在进行碳收支估算时应注意尺度问题。Q₁₀的主要驱动因素和Q₁₀对环境因素的响应随森林类型而变化, 在气候变化情景下, 不同森林类型间Q₁₀可能发生分异。因此, 未来的碳循环-气候模型还应考虑不同类型森林碳循环关键参数对气候变化的响应差异。     

阿尔泰山西伯利亚落叶松径向生长对气候变化的分异响应

在全球气候变暖的背景下, 北半球中高纬度地区出现了树轮径向生长对气候变化的分异响应现象, 但是阿尔泰山优势针叶树种对气候因子响应的稳定性还存在不确定性。该研究选择阿尔泰山中段高海拔西伯利亚落叶松(Larix sibirica)样本建立了树轮宽度年表, 并对年表特征及树木径向生长-气候的动态关系进行了分析。结果表明: 生长季初期和中期的气温是研究区树木生长的主控气候因子; 树木径向生长与当年4月的气温显著负相关, 与当年6-7月的气温显著正相关; 研究区西伯利亚落叶松径向生长与当年4月和6-7月的气温发生了分异现象, 表现为随着气候变化, 树木径向生长对生长季初期由高温引起的干旱的响应敏感性越来越强, 而对生长季中期气温的敏感性表现出先减弱再增强的趋势。阿尔泰山西伯利亚落叶松径向生长对气候变化的响应比较敏感, 适合开展树木生长-气候变化的研究; 检验树木径向生长对气候变化分异响应为该区域基于树木年轮开展历史气候重建和提高未来森林生态系统发展趋势预测的准确性提供了科学依据。     

东北杏种质资源多样性及其地理变化

东北杏(Armeniaca mandshurica)是集观赏、经济、用材于一体的重要树种, 长期以来主要处于野生和半野生状态, 鲜有相关研究报道。该研究对东北杏主要分布区内种质资源状况开展了调查, 选择来自辽宁、吉林与黑龙江的47份典型种质进行了22个定量描述性状和7个定性描述性状的观测, 旨在为该树种的种质资源收集、评价与保护提供重要参考。采用变异系数等指标分析定量描述性状多样性, 使用频率分布等指标分析定性描述性状多样性。通过趋势面方法分析定量描述性状的地理变化规律。利用99对SSR引物对47份东北杏种质进行PCR扩增, 应用遗传相似系数分析东北杏种质的遗传多样性。基于表型性状和SSR分子标记采用聚类分析方法分别对种质进行分类。东北杏不同种质间呈现出较高的表型多样性, 其中19个定量描述性状指标的变异系数在9.40%-55.98%之间, 变异系数最大的为小枝长度, 变异系数最小的为种仁宽; 7个定性描述性状的Shannon-Wiener指数在0.58-1.22之间。由于调查区域的地理位置与主要气候因子间存在着显著的相关性, 东北杏种质的定量描述性状与其地理位置有着密切的关系。其中, 小枝长度呈由东向西逐渐增大的梯度变化, 小枝粗度、种子质量呈由北向南逐渐增大的梯度变化, 果柄长呈由东北向西南逐渐增大的梯度变化; 小枝长度、果柄长与海拔呈正相关关系, 小枝粗度与海拔呈负相关关系, 种子质量与海拔相关性很小。基于26个表型性状进行系统聚类, 将47份东北杏种质分为4类, 分类结果主要体现了东北杏种质特征的差别, 同时也在一定程度上体现了种质产地的效应; 基于遗传相似系数进行聚类分析, 将47份东北杏种质也分为4类, 分类结果体现了种质产地效应; 卡方检验表明, 两种聚类结果相关性不显著, 外在环境是影响东北杏表型变异的重要因素。