Copepod life cycle adaptations and success in response to phytoplankton spring bloom phenology

In a seasonal environment, the timing of reproduction is usually scheduled to maximize the survival of offspring. Within deep water bodies, the phytoplankton spring bloom provides a short time window of high food quantity and quality for herbivores. The onset of algal bloom development, however, varies strongly from year to year due to interannual variability in meteorological conditions. Furthermore, the onset is predicted to change with global warming. Here, we use a long-term dataset to study (a) how a cyclopoid copepod, Cyclops vicinus , is dealing with the large variability in phytoplankton bloom phenology, and (b) if bloom phenology has an influence on offspring numbers. C. vicinus performed a two-phase dormancy, that is, the actual diapause of fourth copepodid stages at the lake bottom is followed by a delay in maturation, that is, a quiescence, within the fifth copepodid stage until the start of the spring bloom. This strategy seems to guarantee a high temporal match of the food requirements for successful offspring development, especially through the highly vulnerable naupliar stages, with the phytoplankton spring bloom. However, despite this match with food availability in all study years, offspring numbers, that is, offspring survival rates were higher in years with an early start of the phytoplankton bloom. In addition, the phenology of copepod development suggested that also within study years, early offspring seems to have lower mortality rates than late produced offspring. We suggest that this is due to a longer predator-free time period and/or reduced time stress for development. Hence, within the present climate variability, the copepod benefited from warmer spring temperatures resulting in an earlier phytoplankton spring bloom. Time will show if the copepod's strategy is flexible enough to cope with future warming.     

Climatic effects on the phenology of lake processes

Populations living in seasonal environments are exposed to systematic changes in physical conditions that restrict the growth and reproduction of many species to only a short time window of the annual cycle. Several studies have shown that climate changes over the latter part of the 20th century affected the phenology and population dynamics of single species. However, the key limitation to forecasting the effects of changing climate on ecosystems lies in understanding how it will affect interactions among species. We investigated the effects of climatic and biotic drivers on physical and biological lake processes, using a historical dataset of 40 years from Lake Washington, USA, and dynamic time‐series models to explain changes in the phenological patterns among physical and biological components of pelagic ecosystems. Long‐term climate warming and variability because of large‐scale climatic patterns like Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) and El Niño–southern oscillation (ENSO) extended the duration of the stratification period by 25 days over the last 40 years. This change was due mainly to earlier spring stratification (16 days) and less to later stratification termination in fall (9 days). The phytoplankton spring bloom advanced roughly in parallel to stratification onset and in 2002 it occurred about 19 days earlier than it did in 1962, indicating the tight connection of spring phytoplankton growth to turbulent conditions. In contrast, the timing of the clear‐water phase showed high variability and was mainly driven by biotic factors. Among the zooplankton species, the timing of spring peaks in the rotifer Keratella advanced strongly, whereas Leptodiaptomus and Daphnia showed slight or no changes. These changes have generated a growing time lag between the spring phytoplankton peak and zooplankton peak, which can be especially critical for the cladoceran Daphnia. Water temperature, PDO, and food availability affected the timing of the spring peak in zooplankton. Overall, the impact of PDO on the phenological processes were stronger compared with ENSO. Our results highlight that climate affects physical and biological processes differently, which can interrupt energy flow among trophic levels, making ecosystem responses to climate change difficult to forecast.     

Combining a regional climate model with a phytoplankton community model to predict future changes in phytoplankton in lakes

1. Linking a regional climate model (RCM) configured for contemporary atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, with a phytoplankton community model (PROTECH) produced realistic simulations of 20 years of recent phytoplankton data from Bassenthwaite Lake, in the North‐West of England. 2. Meteorological drivers were derived from the RCM to represent a future climate scenario involving a 1% per annum compound increase in atmospheric CO₂ concentrations until 2100. Using these drivers, PROTECH was run for another 20 year period representing the last two decades of the 21st century. 3. Comparison of these present and future simulations revealed likely impacts on the current seasonal phytoplankton development. Under future climate conditions, the simulated spring bloom showed an increase in cyanobacteria dominance caused by greater success of Planktothrix. Also, the summer cyanobacteria bloom declined earlier because of nutrient limitation caused by the increased spring growth. Overall productivity in the lake did not change. 4. Analysis showed that these predicted changes were driven by changes in water temperature, which were in turn triggered by the higher air temperatures predicted by the RCM.     

The North Atlantic Oscillation and plankton dynamics in two European lakes –- two variations on a general theme

Long‐term data on water temperature, phytoplankton biovolume, Bosmina and Daphnia abundance and the timing of the clear‐water phase were compared and analysed with respect to the influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in two strongly contrasting lakes in central Europe. In small, shallow, hypertrophic Müggelsee, spring water temperatures and Daphnia abundance both increased more rapidly than in large, deep, meso/oligotrophic Lake Constance. Because of this, the clear‐water phase commenced approximately three weeks earlier in Müggelsee than in Lake Constance. In Müggelsee, the phytoplankton biovolume during late winter/early spring was related to the NAO index. In Lake Constance, where phytoplankton growth was inhibited by intense downward mixing during all years studied, this was not the case. However, in both lakes, interannual variability in water temperature, in Daphnia spring population dynamics and in the timing of the clear‐water phase, were all related to the interannual variability of the NAO index. The Daphnia spring population dynamics and the timing of the clear‐water phase appear to be synchronized by the NAO despite large differences between the lakes in morphometry, trophic status and flushing and mixis regimes, and despite the great distance between the lakes (～700 km). This suggests that a great variety of lakes in central Europe may possibly have exhibited similar interannual variability during the last 20 years.     

Detection of climate change‐driven trends in phytoplankton phenology

The timing of the annual phytoplankton spring bloom is likely to be altered in response to climate change. Quantifying that response has, however, been limited by the typically coarse temporal resolution (monthly) of global climate models. Here, we use higher resolution model output (maximum 5 days) to investigate how phytoplankton bloom timing changes in response to projected 21st century climate change, and how the temporal resolution of data influences the detection of long‐term trends. We find that bloom timing generally shifts later at mid‐latitudes and earlier at high and low latitudes by ~5 days per decade to 2100. The spatial patterns of bloom timing are similar in both low (monthly) and high (5 day) resolution data, although initiation dates are later at low resolution. The magnitude of the trends in bloom timing from 2006 to 2100 is very similar at high and low resolution, with the result that the number of years of data needed to detect a trend in phytoplankton phenology is relatively insensitive to data temporal resolution. We also investigate the influence of spatial scales on bloom timing and find that trends are generally more rapidly detectable after spatial averaging of data. Our results suggest that, if pinpointing the start date of the spring bloom is the priority, the highest possible temporal resolution data should be used. However, if the priority is detecting long‐term trends in bloom timing, data at a temporal resolution of 20 days are likely to be sufficient. Furthermore, our results suggest that data sources which allow for spatial averaging will promote more rapid trend detection.     

Climate change and the timing, magnitude, and composition of the phytoplankton spring bloom

In this article, we show by mesocosm experiments that winter and spring warming will lead to substantial changes in the spring bloom of phytoplankton. The timing of the spring bloom shows only little response to warming as such, while light appears to play a more important role in its initiation. The daily light dose needed for the start of the phytoplankton spring bloom in our experiments agrees well with a recently published critical light intensity found in a field survey of the North Atlantic (around 1.3 mol photons m^?2 day^?1). Experimental temperature elevation had a strong effect on phytoplankton peak biomass (decreasing with temperature), mean cell size (decreasing with temperature) and on the share of microplankton diatoms (decreasing with temperature). All these changes will lead to poorer feeding conditions for copepod zooplankton and, thus, to a less efficient energy transfer from primary to fish production under a warmer climate.     

Meteorological forcing of plankton dynamics in a large and deep continental European lake

The timing of various plankton successional events in Lake Constance was tightly coupled to a large-scale meteorological phenomenon, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). A causal chain of meteorological, hydrological, and ecological processes connected the NAO as well as winter and early spring meteorological conditions to planktonic events in summer leading to a remarkable memory of climatic effects lasting over almost half a year. The response of Daphnia to meteorological forcing was most probably a direct effect of altered water temperatures on daphnid growth and was not mediated by changes in phytoplankton concentrations. High spring water temperatures during ”high-NAO years” enabled high population growth rates, resulting in a high daphnid biomass as early as May. Hence, a critical Daphnia biomass to suppress phytoplankton was reached earlier in high-NAO years yielding an early and longer-lasting clear-water phase. Finally, an earlier summer decline of Daphnia produced in a negative relationship between Daphnia biomass in July and the NAO. Meteorological forcing of the seasonal plankton dynamics in Lake Constance included simple temporal shifts of processes and successional events, but also complex changes in the relative importance of different mechanisms. Since Daphnia plays an important role in plankton succession, a thorough understanding of the regulation of its population dynamics provides the key for predictions of the response of freshwater planktonic food webs to global climate change. Received: 15 February 1999 / Accepted: 23 August 1999     

Effects of recent climate change on phytoplankton phenology in a temperate lake

1. A number of long-term studies have shown that spring biological events have advanced in recent decades and that this is a response to climate change. In lentic systems, changes in phytoplankton phenology have been attributed to various directly climate-related processes including changes in the onset and duration of thermal stratification, earlier ice-break up and increased water temperature. Both indirect climatic drivers and non-climate drivers such as elevated grazing pressure and nutrient enrichment can also affect phenology.
2. This study investigated whether phenological trends in phytoplankton could be detected in a relatively short time series in a shallow, ice-free, polymictic lake with a high annual discharge and whether any such trends could be causally explained.
3. It was found that the centre of gravity of the spring chlorophyll a bloom advanced significantly by 1.6 days per year over a 15-year period. This was accompanied by a significant increase in water temperature of 0.12 °C per year which is high compared to published rates of change over longer time series. No direct effects of ice cover, stratification or water discharge rates could be linked to the advancement of the spring bloom. Instead, the shift in timing was attributed to an advance in the timing of the dominant spring diatom, Aulacoseira spp., instigated by a temperature-driven increase in replication rate leading to an earlier onset of silica (SiO₂) limitation.     

Seasonal succession of ciliates in lake constance

We found a recurrent seasonal pattern in abundance and composition of planktonic ciliates in Lake Constance, FRG, over a three-year period. Abundance peaks occurred in early spring and summer/autumn, while ciliate numbers were low in late spring (clear-water phase) and winter. Prostomatida and Oligotrichida dominated in early spring. They responded immediately to the phytoplankton spring bloom, while Haptorida, Peritrichida, and large Scuticociliatida (Histiobalantium) were delayed by 1 to 2 weeks. The spring community broke down at the onset of the clear-water phase.Pelagohalteria viridis containing symbiontic algae appeared shortly after this event. A highly diverse community was recorded in summer/autumn. Peritrichida, small Oligotrichida, and large Scuticociliatida reached their maxima during this season. Small Scuticociliatida were rare throughout the year and contributed moderately to total ciliate numbers only during the cold season. The observed seasonal sequence of pelagic ciliates in Lake Constance is discussed in relation to simultaneously collected data on potential food organisms and grazers.     

Changes to the phytoplankton assemblage of Lake Kinneret after decades of a predictable, repetitive pattern

1. Phytoplankton abundance and species composition in Lake Kinneret, Israel, have been monitored at weekly or fortnightly intervals since 1969. This paper summarises the resulting 34‐year phytoplankton record with a focus on the last 13 years of new data, and reassesses an earlier conclusion that the lake phytoplankton shows remarkable stability despite a wide range of external pressures. 2. The Kinneret phytoplankton record can be split into two major periods. The first, from 1969 till 1993, was a period of distinct stability expressed by a typical annual pattern revolving around a spring bloom of the dinoflagellate Peridinium gatunense that repeated each year. The second period, starting around 1994 and ongoing, is characterised by the loss of the previously predictable annual pattern, with both ‘bloom years’ and ‘no‐bloom years’. 3. In the second period, deviations from the previous annual pattern include: the absence of the prevailing spring P. gatunense blooms in some years and increased variability in the magnitude of the bloom in others; intensification of winter Aulacoseira granulata blooms; higher summer phytoplankton biomass with replacement of mostly nanoplanktonic, palatable forms by less palatable forms; new appearance and establishment of toxin‐producing, nitrogen fixing cyanobacteria in summer; increase in the absolute biomass and percentage contribution of cyanobacteria to total biomass; and fungal epidemics attacking P. gatunense. 4. The 34‐year record serves to validate Schindler's (1987) assessment that phytoplankton species composition will respond to increased anthropogenic stress before bulk ecosystem parameters.     

Biotic interactions may overrule direct climate effects on spring phytoplankton dynamics

To improve our mechanistic understanding and predictive capacities with respect to climate change effects on the spring phytoplankton bloom in temperate marine systems, we used a process‐driven dynamical model to disentangle the impact of potentially relevant factors which are often correlated in the field. The model was based on comprehensive indoor mesocosm experiments run at four temperature and three light regimes. It was driven by time‐series of water temperature and irradiance, considered edible and less edible phytoplankton separately, and accounted for density‐dependent grazing losses. It successfully reproduced the observed dynamics of well edible phytoplankton in the different temperature and light treatments. Four major factors influenced spring phytoplankton dynamics: temperature, light (cloudiness), grazing, and the success of overwintering phyto‐ and zooplankton providing the starting biomasses for spring growth. Our study predicts that increasing cloudiness as anticipated for warmer winters for the Baltic Sea region will retard phytoplankton net growth and reduce peak heights. Light had a strong direct effect in contrast to temperature. However, edible phytoplankton was indirectly strongly temperature‐sensitive via grazing which was already important in early spring at moderately high algal biomasses and counter‐intuitively provoked lower and later algal peaks at higher temperatures. Initial phyto‐ and zooplankton composition and biomass also had a strong effect on spring algal dynamics indicating a memory effect via the broadly under‐sampled overwintering plankton community. Unexpectedly, increased initial phytoplankton biomass did not necessarily lead to earlier or higher spring blooms since the effect was counteracted by subsequently enhanced grazing. Increasing temperature will likely exhibit complex indirect effects via changes in overwintering phytoplankton and grazer biomasses and current grazing pressure. Additionally, effects on the phytoplankton composition due to the species‐specific susceptibility to grazing are expected. Hence, we need to consider not only direct but also indirect effects, e.g. biotic interactions, when addressing climate change impacts.     

Will changes in phenology track climate change? A study of growth initiation timing in coast Douglas‐fir

Under climate change, the reduction of frost risk, onset of warm temperatures and depletion of soil moisture are all likely to occur earlier in the year in many temperate regions. The resilience of tree species will depend on their ability to track these changes in climate with shifts in phenology that lead to earlier growth initiation in the spring. Exposure to warm temperatures (‘forcing’) typically triggers growth initiation, but many trees also require exposure to cool temperatures (‘chilling’) while dormant to readily initiate growth in the spring. If warming increases forcing and decreases chilling, climate change could maintain, advance or delay growth initiation phenology relative to the onset of favorable conditions. We modeled the timing of height‐ and diameter‐growth initiation in coast Douglas‐fir (an ecologically and economically vital tree in western North America) to determine whether changes in phenology are likely to track changes in climate using data from field‐based and controlled‐environment studies, which included conditions warmer than those currently experienced in the tree's range. For high latitude and elevation portions of the tree's range, our models predicted that warming will lead to earlier growth initiation and allow trees to track changes in the onset of the warm but still moist conditions that favor growth, generally without substantially greater exposure to frost. In contrast, toward lower latitude and elevation range limits, the models predicted that warming will lead to delayed growth initiation relative to changes in climate due to reduced chilling, with trees failing to capture favorable conditions in the earlier parts of the spring. This maladaptive response to climate change was more prevalent for diameter‐growth initiation than height‐growth initiation. The decoupling of growth initiation with the onset of favorable climatic conditions could reduce the resilience of coast Douglas‐fir to climate change at the warm edges of its distribution.     

Centennial decline in North Sea water clarity causes strong delay in phytoplankton bloom timing

With climate warming, a widespread expectation is that events in spring, such as flowering, bird migrations, and insect bursts, will occur earlier because of increasing temperature. At high latitudes, increased ocean temperature is suggested to advance the spring phytoplankton bloom due to earlier stabilization of the water column. However, climate warming is also expected to cause browning in lakes and rivers due to increases in terrestrial greening, ultimately reducing water clarity in coastal areas where freshwater drain. In shallow areas, decreased retention of sediments on the seabed will add to this effect. Both browning and resuspension of sediments imply a reduction of the euphotic zone and Sverdrup's critical depth leading to a delay in the spring bloom, counteracting the effect of increasing temperature. Here, we provide evidence that such a transparency reduction has already taken place in both the deep and shallow areas of the North Sea during the 20th century. A sensitivity analysis using a water column model suggests that the reduced transparency might have caused up to 3 weeks delay in the spring bloom over the last century. This delay stands in contrast to the earlier bloom onset expected from global warming, thus highlighting the importance of including changing water transparency in analyses of phytoplankton phenology and primary production. This appears to be of particular relevance for coastal waters, where increased concentrations of absorbing and scattering substances (sediments, dissolved organic matter) have been suggested to lead to coastal darkening.     

A simulation study of the feedback of phytoplankton on thermal structure via light extinction

1. A simulation study of the feedback of phytoplankton biomass on temperature stratification in the large, monomictic Lake Constance was undertaken. Phytoplankton biomass affects the light extinction coefficient (LEC) of the water and, in turn, the vertical distribution of short‐wave radiation, which shapes the temperature stratification in the lake. 2. A sensitivity study of the variation in LEC using the hydrodynamic model DYRESM showed that a high LEC is associated with stronger stratification, shallower thermoclines, higher surface temperatures and reduced heat content during the heating phase of the lake. During the cooling phase, a shallower thermocline at high LEC leads to a faster decrease in water temperature so that during autumn, a high LEC is associated with lower surface temperatures. Thermal structure was particularly sensitive to changes in LEC when its value was below 0.5 m^?1. 3. When LEC is simulated dynamically with the coupled hydrodynamic–ecological model DYRESM‐CAEDYM, its value is a function of phytoplankton dynamics that change vertically and temporally. Comparing simulations with and without dynamic LEC (i.e. with and without phytoplankton dynamics) produced a complex picture: during the vegetation period, we often found a warmer surface layer and colder water beneath in the simulations with dynamic LEC, as expected from the higher LEC when phytoplankton is abundant. However, since phytoplankton biomass (as LEC) fluctuates and because of occasional cooling phases, the patterns were comparatively weak and not consistent over the whole growing season. 4. The most obvious patterns emerged by comparing simulations of oligotrophic and eutrophic conditions. In the eutrophic state, with its higher LEC, stratification was stronger and characterized by higher surface water temperatures, a shallower thermocline and colder water temperatures between 5 and 10 m depth. 5. Statistical analysis of long‐term data of water temperatures in Lake Constance, corrected for external forcing by air temperature, revealed a significant tendency towards warmer temperatures at 7.5 and 10 m depths with decreasing LECs over the course of reoligotrophication. This finding is consistent with our model results.     

Relationship Between Periodic Resuspension Events and Planktonic Diatom Community Structure in Lake Michigan: A Field and Laboratory Investigation

Lake Michigan provides an ideal location for comparing episodic physical forcing events (storms) on phytoplankton processes and the more persistent seasonal variability of phytoplankton communities. This is due to the duration and extent of the highly turbid, recurrent coastal plume (RCP) in the lake during the winter/early spring. Although the RCP can coincide with the initiation of the basin wide spring diatom bloom, linkages between the duration and intensity of the plume and the prominent role of light availability in regulating Lake Michigan phytoplankton growth during the spring isothermal period have been postulated, but not verified. The concurrent physical and biological events provide a novel opportunity to examine phenomena associated with the RCP affecting the distribution and abundance of species in Lake Michigan's planktonic diatom flora. In this study, planktonic diatom assemblages from pre, post and active spring plume events were examined from stations along Lake Michigan's southern shoreline. Species abundance changed rapidly during storm events. Sediment resuspension via storm activity created a suboptimal growth environment. Post‐storm event diatom phytoplankton communities were floristically distinct from prestorm event communities, with resting cell‐forming taxa playing a significant role in these community‐restructuring periods. Laboratory simulations of resuspension events using Lake Michigan sediments were conducted under a variety of environmental conditions. Parameters varied included day length, temperature, and silica. The resulting assemblages were quantitatively counted. A statistically significant relationship was identified between day length and the vegetative growth of many resting cell‐forming diatom species. When day length was calculated for poststorm event field data, it revealed a high correlation between poststorm event communities and those predicted by the laboratory simulations. Timing of storm events and latitudinal position of the aquatic system are then important elements for consideration when predicting diatom phytoplankton community structure due to the relationship these factors have with day length.     

Impact of climate warming on phenological asynchrony of plankton dynamics across Europe

Climate warming alters the seasonal timing of biological events. This raises concerns that species-specific responses to warming may de-synchronize co-evolved consumer-resource phenologies, resulting in trophic mismatch and altered ecosystem dynamics. We explored the effects of warming on the synchrony of two events: the onset of the phytoplankton spring bloom and the spring/summer maximum of the grazer Daphnia. Simulation of 16 lake types over 31 years at 1907 North African and European locations under 5 climate scenarios revealed that the current median phenological delay between the two events varies greatly (20–190 days) across lake types and geographic locations. Warming moves both events forward in time and can lengthen or shorten the delay between them by up to ±60 days. Our simulations suggest large geographic and lake-specific variations in phenological synchrony, provide quantitative predictions of its dependence on physical lake properties and geographic location and highlight research needs concerning its ecological consequences.     

Predicted responses of arctic and alpine ecosystems to altered seasonality under climate change

Global climate change is already having significant impacts on arctic and alpine ecosystems, and ongoing increases in temperature and altered precipitation patterns will affect the strong seasonal patterns that characterize these temperature‐limited systems. The length of the potential growing season in these tundra environments is increasing due to warmer temperatures and earlier spring snow melt. Here, we compare current and projected climate and ecological data from 20 Northern Hemisphere sites to identify how seasonal changes in the physical environment due to climate change will alter the seasonality of arctic and alpine ecosystems. We find that although arctic and alpine ecosystems appear similar under historical climate conditions, climate change will lead to divergent responses, particularly in the spring and fall shoulder seasons. As seasonality changes in the Arctic, plants will advance the timing of spring phenological events, which could increase plant nutrient uptake, production, and ecosystem carbon (C) gain. In alpine regions, photoperiod will constrain spring plant phenology, limiting the extent to which the growing season can lengthen, especially if decreased water availability from earlier snow melt and warmer summer temperatures lead to earlier senescence. The result could be a shorter growing season with decreased production and increased nutrient loss. These contrasting alpine and arctic ecosystem responses will have cascading effects on ecosystems, affecting community structure, biotic interactions, and biogeochemistry.     

Vertical flux of particulate matter in an Arctic fjord: the case of lack of the sea-ice cover in Adventfjorden 2006–2007

Seasonal dynamics of suspended minerals, organic matter, particulate, and dissolved organic carbon (DOC), chlorophyll, and their vertical fluxes were studied in a small Arctic fjord (Adventfjorden, Spitsbergen) from November 2006 to October 2007. The fjord was usually covered with fast ice in winter, but remained open throughout the year since 2005. The open-water winter period caused increased wave action and resuspension of organic and mineral particles. The lack of sea-ice in spring accelerated the onset of the productive season. The earlier light signal also caused an earlier appearance of mesozooplanktonic organisms, accompanied by a significant increase of the DOC pool in the water. In the cold period (winter and spring) 47% of the annual organic matter settled on the sampling site, a lot coming from the spring diatom bloom in April. Summer melt (July, August) resulted in turbid and brackish fjord surface water with stratification and increase of both suspended particles and sedimentation, causing 60% of the annual minerals and 53% of the annual organic matter to settle at the sampling site. Increased dissolved organic carbon (DOC) through sloppy feeding on the mixo- and heterotrophic protista by the abundant mesozooplankton indicated intensive secondary production, resulting in a maximum fecal pellets flux of >5 mg C m⁻² day⁻¹. A warmer climate with reduced sea-ice cover in fjords will advance the onset of the spring bloom and will also result in a larger input of turbid melt water in summer, restricting the light availability and enhancing flocculation and thereby sedimentation.     

Predicted warming and browning affect timing and magnitude of plankton phenological events in lakes: a mesocosm study

1. Aquatic ecosystems in Northern Europe are expected to face increases in temperature and water colour (TB) in future. While effects of these factors have been studied separately, it is unknown whether and how a combination of them might affect phenological events and trophic interactions. 2. In a mesocosm study, we combined both factors to create conditions expected to arise during the coming century. We focused on quantifying effects on timing and magnitude of plankton spring phenological events and identifying possible mismatches between resources (phytoplankton) and consumers (zooplankton). 3. We found that the increases in TB had important effects on timing and abundance of different plankton groups. While increased temperature led to an earlier peak in phytoplankton and zooplankton and a change in the relative timing of different zooplankton groups, increased water colour reduced chlorophyll‐a concentrations. 4. Increased TB together benefitted cladocerans and calanoid copepods and led to stronger top‐down control of algae by zooplankton. There was no sign of a mismatch between primary producers and grazers as reported from other studies. 5. Our results point towards an earlier onset of plankton spring growth in shallow lakes in future with a stronger top‐down control of phytoplankton by zooplankton grazers.