Why Are Clinicians Not Embracing the Results from Pivotal Clinical Trials in Severe Sepsis? A Bayesian Analysis

Background

Five pivotal clinical trials (Intensive Insulin Therapy; Recombinant Human Activated Protein C [rhAPC]; Low-Tidal Volume; Low-Dose Steroid; Early Goal-Directed Therapy [EGDT]) demonstrated mortality reduction in patients with severe sepsis and expert guidelines have recommended them to clinical practice. Yet, the adoption of these therapies remains low among clinicians.

Objectives

We selected these five trials and asked: Question 1-What is the current probability that the new therapy is not better than the standard of care in my patient with severe sepsis? Question 2-What is the current probability of reducing the relative risk of death (RRR) of my patient with severe sepsis by meaningful clinical thresholds (RRR >15%; >20%; >25%)?

Methods

Bayesian methodologies were applied to this study. Odds ratio (OR) was considered for Question 1, and RRR was used for Question 2. We constructed prior distributions (enthusiastic; mild, moderate, and severe skeptic) based on various effective sample sizes of other relevant clinical trials (unfavorable evidence). Posterior distributions were calculated by combining the prior distributions and the data from pivotal trials (favorable evidence).

Main Findings

Answer 1-The analysis based on mild skeptic prior shows beneficial results with the Intensive Insulin, rhAPC, and Low-Tidal Volume trials, but not with the Low-Dose Steroid and EGDT trials. All trials'' results become unacceptable by the analyses using moderate or severe skeptic priors. Answer 2-If we aim for a RRR>15%, the mild skeptic analysis shows that the current probability of reducing death by this clinical threshold is 88% for the Intensive Insulin, 62–65% for the Low-Tidal Volume, rhAPC, EGDT trials, and 17% for the Low-Dose Steroid trial. The moderate and severe skeptic analyses show no clinically meaningful reduction in the risk of death for all trials. If we aim for a RRR >20% or >25%, all probabilities of benefits become lower independent of the degree of skepticism.

Conclusions

Our clinical threshold analysis offers a new bedside tool to be directly applied to the care of patients with severe sepsis. Our results demonstrate that the strength of evidence (statistical and clinical) is weak for all trials, particularly for the Low-Dose Steroid and EGDT trials. It is essential to replicate the results of each of these five clinical trials in confirmatory studies if we want to provide patient care based on scientifically sound evidence.     

How Can Dolphins Recognize Fish According to Their Echoes? A Statistical Analysis of Fish Echoes

Echo-based object classification is a fundamental task of animals that use a biosonar system. Dolphins and porpoises should be able to rely on echoes to discriminate a predator from a prey or to select a desired prey from an undesired object. Many studies have shown that dolphins and porpoises can discriminate between objects according to their echoes. All of these studies however, used unnatural objects that can be easily characterized in human terminologies (e.g., metallic spheres, disks, cylinders). In this work, we collected real fish echoes from many angles of acquisition using a sonar system that mimics the emission properties of dolphins and porpoises. We then tested two alternative statistical approaches in classifying these echoes. Our results suggest that fish species can be classified according to echoes returning from porpoise- and dolphin-like signals. These results suggest how dolphins and porpoises can classify fish based on their echoes and provide some insight as to which features might enable the classification.     

A Comparison of the Performance of the I-gel? vs. the LMA-S?during Anesthesia: A Meta-Analysis of Randomized Controlled Trials

Background and Objective

Conflicting results were found between the I-gel™ and the LMA-Supreme™ during anesthesia, so we conducted a meta-analysis of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) to compare the effectiveness and safety of the I-gel™ vs. the LMA-Supreme™during anesthesia.

Methods

A comprehensive search was conducted using Pubmed, EMbase, ISI Web of Knowledge, the Cochrane Library, China Journal Full-text Database, Chinese Biomedical Database, Chinese Scientific Journals Full-text Database, CMA Digital Periodicals, and Google scholar to find RCTs that compare the LMA-S™ with the i-gel™during anesthesia. Two reviewers independently selected trials, extracted data, and assessed the methodological qualities and evidence levels. Data were analyzed by RevMan 5.0 and comprehensive meta-analysis software.

Results

Ten RCTs were included. There were no significant differences in oropharyngeal leak pressures (mean difference [MD] 0.72, 95% confidence interval [CI] –1.10 2.53), device placement time (MD –1.3, 95%CI –4.07 1.44), first attempt insertion success (risk ratio [RR] 1.01, 95% CI 0.9 1.14), grade 3 and 4 fiberoptic view (RR 0.89, 95%CI 0.65 1.21), and blood on removal (RR 0.62, 95%CI 0.32 1.22) between the i-gel™ and the LMA-Supreme™, respectively. However, the LMA-Supreme™was associated with easier gastric tube insertion (RR 1.17, 95%CI 1.07 1.29), and more sore throat (RR 2.56, 95%CI 1.60 4.12) than the i-gel™ group.

Conclusions

The LMA-Supreme™ and i-gel™ were similarly successful and rapidly inserted. However, the LMA-Supreme™ was shown to be easier for gastric tube insertion and associated with more sore throat compared with the i-gel™.     

What To Do About Helicobacter pylori? A Decision Analysis of its Implication on Public Health

Objectives. Public health measures to eradicate Helicobacter pylori in the general population may prevent the occurrence of nonulcer dyspepsia (NUD), peptic ulcer (PUD) and gastric cancer, but may at the same time increase the prevalence of gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). A decision analysis is carried out to quantify the counteracting influences of H. pylori and resolve the controversy about a public policy to eliminate H. pylori from the general population. Methods. A compartment model is structured to analyze the jointly beneficial and adverse effects of H. pylori. Gastric acid, H. pylori infection, and other pathophysiological mechanisms influence the occurrence of reflux disease, peptic ulcer and dyspepsia, which all contribute to the occurrence of upper abdominal symptoms. Each influence is modeled as a separate compartment with various connections to other compartments. The simulation is carried out on an electronic spreadsheet. Results. A decision in favor or against eradication of all H. pylori depends primarily on the relative contribution of reflux disease vs. peptic ulcer and dyspepsia to upper abdominal symptoms in the general population. If reflux‐related symptoms contribute twice more than peptic ulcer plus dyspepsia to the overall occurrence of abdominal symptoms, a strategy to eradicate H. pylori would actually lower rather than raise public health. Below this threshold such strategy may improve general well‐being. In the individual patient infected with H. pylori, it remains beneficial to eradicate H. pylori, irrespective of the symptoms’ nature. Conclusions. Although it is advisable to treat H. pylori infection in the individual patient who comes to medical attention, a general policy directed towards complete elimination of H. pylori from the population would not be beneficial. A compartment model provides a simple yet powerful method to assess complex disease behavior.     

Does Clinical Management Improve Outcomes following Self-Harm? Results from the Multicentre Study of Self-Harm in England

Background

Evidence to guide clinical management of self-harm is sparse, trials have recruited selected samples, and psychological treatments that are suggested in guidelines may not be available in routine practice.

Aims

To examine how the management that patients receive in hospital relates to subsequent outcome.

Methods

We identified episodes of self-harm presenting to three UK centres (Derby, Manchester, Oxford) over a 10 year period (2000 to 2009). We used established data collection systems to investigate the relationship between four aspects of management (psychosocial assessment, medical admission, psychiatric admission, referral for specialist mental health follow up) and repetition of self-harm within 12 months, adjusted for differences in baseline demographic and clinical characteristics.

Results

35,938 individuals presented with self-harm during the study period. In two of the three centres, receiving a psychosocial assessment was associated with a 40% lower risk of repetition, Hazard Ratios (95% CIs): Centre A 0.99 (0.90–1.09); Centre B 0.59 (0.48–0.74); Centre C 0.59 (0.52–0.68). There was little indication that the apparent protective effects were mediated through referral and follow up arrangements. The association between psychosocial assessment and a reduced risk of repetition appeared to be least evident in those from the most deprived areas.

Conclusion

These findings add to the growing body of evidence that thorough assessment is central to the management of self-harm, but further work is needed to elucidate the possible mechanisms and explore the effects in different clinical subgroups.     

How Do Ants Make Sense of Gravity? A Boltzmann Walker Analysis of Lasius niger Trajectories on Various Inclines

The goal of this study is to describe accurately how the directional information given by support inclinations affects the ant Lasius niger motion in terms of a behavioral decision. To this end, we have tracked the spontaneous motion of 345 ants walking on a 0.5×0.5 m plane canvas, which was tilted with 5 various inclinations by rad ( data points). At the population scale, support inclination favors dispersal along uphill and downhill directions. An ant''s decision making process is modeled using a version of the Boltzmann Walker model, which describes an ant''s random walk as a series of straight segments separated by reorientation events, and was extended to take directional influence into account. From the data segmented accordingly ( segments), this extension allows us to test separately how average speed, segments lengths and reorientation decisions are affected by support inclination and current walking direction of the ant. We found that support inclination had a major effect on average speed, which appeared approximately three times slower on the incline. However, we found no effect of the walking direction on speed. Contrastingly, we found that ants tend to walk longer in the same direction when they move uphill or downhill, and also that they preferentially adopt new uphill or downhill headings at turning points. We conclude that ants continuously adapt their decision making about where to go, and how long to persist in the same direction, depending on how they are aligned with the line of maximum declivity gradient. Hence, their behavioral decision process appears to combine klinokinesis with geomenotaxis. The extended Boltzmann Walker model parameterized by these effects gives a fair account of the directional dispersal of ants on inclines.     

Do most practices have an age-sex register? Results of the West Midlands age-sex register study.

A cross sectional study based on all (1260) general practices in the West Midlands was conducted in late 1984 and early 1985. Responses to a postal questionnaire were received from 762 (60.5%) practices, and of these, 387 (50.8%) stated that they had an age-sex register; 104 (13.6%) practices replied that they had definite plans to establish an age-sex register within six months, and a random sample of these was later telephoned to see if the plans had come to fruition. A random telephone sample was also made from the 498 (39.5%) non-responders. It was concluded that the current prevalence of age-sex registers in the West Midlands is 52% (+/- 5% for 95% confidence) of all practices. A register has now been established of 422 practices (35.5% of the total number in the West Midlands) that have an age-sex register. This is being used as a database for other research. The most common reason stated for not having an age-sex register was that it would be too time consuming. Most of the practices that had one stated that it was used for research, disease recording, screening, surveillance, or health education, which implies that the registers are being used.     

How Close Do We Live to Water? A Global Analysis of Population Distance to Freshwater Bodies

Traditionally, people have inhabited places with ready access to fresh water. Today, over 50% of the global population lives in urban areas, and water can be directed via tens of kilometres of pipelines. Still, however, a large part of the world''s population is directly dependent on access to natural freshwater sources. So how are inhabited places related to the location of freshwater bodies today? We present a high-resolution global analysis of how close present-day populations live to surface freshwater. We aim to increase the understanding of the relationship between inhabited places, distance to surface freshwater bodies, and climatic characteristics in different climate zones and administrative regions. Our results show that over 50% of the world''s population lives closer than 3 km to a surface freshwater body, and only 10% of the population lives further than 10 km away. There are, however, remarkable differences between administrative regions and climatic zones. Populations in Australia, Asia, and Europe live closest to water. Although populations in arid zones live furthest away from freshwater bodies in absolute terms, relatively speaking they live closest to water considering the limited number of freshwater bodies in those areas. Population distributions in arid zones show statistically significant relationships with a combination of climatic factors and distance to water, whilst in other zones there is no statistically significant relationship with distance to water. Global studies on development and climate adaptation can benefit from an improved understanding of these relationships between human populations and the distance to fresh water.     

Do Diagnosis Delays Impact Receipt of Test Results? Evidence from the HIV Early Infant Diagnosis Program in Uganda

Background

There is scant evidence on the association between diagnosis delays and the receipt of test results in HIV Early Infant Diagnosis (EID) programs. We determine the association between diagnosis delays and other health care system and patient factors on result receipt.

Methods

We reviewed 703 infant HIV test records for tests performed between January 2008 and February 2009 at a regional referral hospital and level four health center in Uganda. The main outcome was caregiver receipt of the test result. The primary study variable was turnaround time (time between sample collection and result availability at the health facility). Additional variables included clinic entry point, infant age at sample collection, reported HIV status and receipt of antiretroviral prophylaxis for prevention of mother-to-child transmission. We conducted a pooled analysis in addition to separate analyses for each facility. We estimated the relative risk of result receipt using modified Poisson regression with robust standard errors.

Results

Overall, the median result turnaround time, was 38 days. 59% of caregivers received infant test results. Caregivers were less likely to receive results at turnaround times greater than 49 days compared to 28 days or fewer (ARR = 0.83; 95% CI = 0.70–0.98). Caregivers were more likely to receive results at the PMTCT clinic (ARR = 1.81; 95% CI = 1.40–2.33) and less likely at the pediatric ward (ARR = 0.54; 95% CI = 0.37–0.81) compared to the immunization clinic. At the level four health center, result receipt was half as likely among infants older than 9 months compared to 3 months and younger (ARR= 0.47; 95% CI = 0.25–0.93).

Conclusion

In this study setting, we find evidence that longer turnaround times, clinic entry point and age at sample collection may be associated with receipt of infant HIV test results.     

Cadmium Exposure and Incidence of Diabetes Mellitus - Results from the Malm? Diet and Cancer Study

Background

Cadmium is a pollutant with multiple adverse health effects: renal dysfunction, osteoporosis and fractures, cancer, and probably cardiovascular disease. Some studies have reported associations between cadmium and impaired fasting glucose and diabetes. However, this relationship is controversial and there is a lack of longitudinal studies.

Objectives

To examine prospectively whether cadmium in blood is associated with incidence of diabetes mellitus.

Methods

The study population consists of 4585 subjects without history of diabetes (aged 46 to 67 years, 60% women), who participated in the Malmö Diet and Cancer study during 1991–1994. Blood cadmium levels were estimated from hematocrit and cadmium concentrations in erythrocytes. Incident cases of diabetes were identified from national and local diabetes registers.

Results

Cadmium concentrations in blood were not associated with blood glucose and insulin levels at the baseline examination. However, cadmium was positively associated with HbA1c in former smokers and current smokers. During a mean follow-up of 15.2±4.2 years, 622 (299 men and 323 women) were diagnosed with new-onset of diabetes. The incidence of diabetes was not significantly associated with blood cadmium level at baseline, neither in men or women. The hazard ratio (4^th vs 1^st quartile) was 1.11 (95% confidence interval 0.82–1.49), when adjusted for potential confounders.

Conclusions

Elevated blood cadmium levels are not associated with increased incidence of diabetes. The positive association between HbA1c and blood cadmium levels has a likely explanation in mechanisms related to erythrocyte turnover and smoking.     

The structure of the organic hydroperoxide resistance protein from Deinococcus radiodurans. Do conformational changes facilitate recycling of the redox disulfide?

The three-dimensional structure of the organic hydroperoxide resistance protein (OHRP) from Deinococcus radiodurans as determined using single crystal xray diffraction techniques is reported. Comparison of the structure with that obtained for OHRP from Pseudomonas aeruginosa reveals that the polypeptide chain of OHRPs can adopt two significantly different conformations ("in" and "out") in the region of the active site disulfide moiety. It is postulated that the closed configuration is consistent with efficient catalysis of the reduction of organic hydroperoxides, whereas the open form is required for enzyme recycling. Comparison of the structures of OHRP and that of the osmotically induced protein C (OsmC) from Mycoplasma pneumoniae shows that OHRPs and OsmCs are structurally homologous, perhaps indicating related functions for the two families of proteins.     

Ten Years after the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors’ Clinical Trial Registration Initiative,One Quarter of Phase 3 Pediatric Epilepsy Clinical Trials Still Remain Unpublished: A Cross Sectional Analysis

Introduction

Although selective reporting of clinical trial results introduces bias into evidence based clinical decision making, publication bias in pediatric epilepsy is unknown today. Since there is a considerable ambiguity in the treatment of an important and common clinical problem, pediatric seizures, we assessed the public availability of results of phase 3 clinical trials that evaluated treatments of seizures in children and adolescents as a surrogate for the extent of publication bias in pediatric epilepsy.

Methods

We determined the proportion of published and unpublished study results of phase 3 clinical trials that were registered as completed on ClinicalTrials.gov. We searched ClinicalTrials.gov, PubMed, and Google Scholar for publications and contacted principal investigators or sponsors. The analysis was performed according to STROBE criteria.

Results

Considering studies that were completed before 2014 (N = 99), 75 (76%) pediatric phase 3 clinical trials were published but 24 (24%) remained unpublished. The unpublished studies concealed evidence from 4,437 patients. Mean time-to-publication was 25 SD ± 15.6 months, more than twice as long as mandated.

Conclusion

Ten years after the ICMJE’s clinical trials registration initiative there is still a considerable amount of selective reporting and delay of publication that potentially distorts the body of evidence in the treatment of pediatric seizures.     

Does Publication Bias Inflate the Apparent Efficacy of Psychological Treatment for Major Depressive Disorder? A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of US National Institutes of Health-Funded Trials

Background

The efficacy of antidepressant medication has been shown empirically to be overestimated due to publication bias, but this has only been inferred statistically with regard to psychological treatment for depression. We assessed directly the extent of study publication bias in trials examining the efficacy of psychological treatment for depression.

Methods and Findings

We identified US National Institutes of Health grants awarded to fund randomized clinical trials comparing psychological treatment to control conditions or other treatments in patients diagnosed with major depressive disorder for the period 1972–2008, and we determined whether those grants led to publications. For studies that were not published, data were requested from investigators and included in the meta-analyses. Thirteen (23.6%) of the 55 funded grants that began trials did not result in publications, and two others never started. Among comparisons to control conditions, adding unpublished studies (Hedges’ g = 0.20; CI_95% -0.11~0.51; k = 6) to published studies (g = 0.52; 0.37~0.68; k = 20) reduced the psychotherapy effect size point estimate (g = 0.39; 0.08~0.70) by 25%. Moreover, these findings may overestimate the "true" effect of psychological treatment for depression as outcome reporting bias could not be examined quantitatively.

Conclusion

The efficacy of psychological interventions for depression has been overestimated in the published literature, just as it has been for pharmacotherapy. Both are efficacious but not to the extent that the published literature would suggest. Funding agencies and journals should archive both original protocols and raw data from treatment trials to allow the detection and correction of outcome reporting bias. Clinicians, guidelines developers, and decision makers should be aware that the published literature overestimates the effects of the predominant treatments for depression.     

Does Breastfeeding Help to Reduce the Risk of Childhood Overweight and Obesity? A Propensity Score Analysis of Data from the KiGGS Study

BackgroundCurrent studies suggest that the beneficial effect of breastfeeding on overweight and obesity may have been largely overestimated. We examined the relationship between >4 months of full breastfeeding and overweight/obesity in children living in Germany.MethodsWe analyzed retrospectively collected data on breastfeeding from children aged 3–17 years who participated in the German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents (KiGGS baseline study) between 2003 and 2006 (n = 13163). To minimize confounding, we applied propensity score matching and multivariate logistic regression analyses to estimate the effect of breastfeeding on childhood overweight and obesity.ResultsAdjusted analyses of the matched dataset (n = 8034) indicated that children who were breastfed for <4 months had a significant reduction in the odds of overweight (OR 0.81 [95% CI 0.71–0.92]) and obesity (OR 0.75 [95% CI 0.61–0.92]) compared to children who were not breastfed or who were breastfed for a shorter duration. Further analyses stratified by age group showed that the association was strongest in children aged 7–10 years (OR 0.67 [95% CI 0.53–0.84] for overweight and OR 0.56 [95% CI 0.39–0.81] for obesity), while no significant effect could be seen in other age groups.DiscussionOur findings support the hypothesis that breastfeeding does have a beneficial effect on childhood overweight and obesity, although the effect seems to be strongest in children of primary school age.