High Incidence Is Not High Exposure: What Proportion of Prevention Trial Participants Are Exposed to HIV?

Objective

Randomized clinical trials of HIV prevention in high-risk populations of women often assume that all participants have similar exposure to HIV. However, a substantial fraction of women enrolled in the trial may have no or low exposure to HIV. Our objective was to estimate the proportion of women exposed to HIV throughout a hypothetical high-risk study population.

Methods

A stochastic individual-based model was developed to simulate the sexual behavior and the risk of HIV acquisition for a cohort of sexually active HIV-uninfected women in high HIV prevalence settings. Key behavior and epidemic assumptions in the model were based on published studies on HIV transmission in South Africa. The prevalence of exposure, defined as the proportion of women who have sex with HIV-infected partner, and HIV incidence were evaluated.

Results

Our model projects that in communities with HIV incidence rate of 1 per 100 person years, only 5-6% of women are exposed to HIV annually while in communities with an HIV incidence of 5 per 100 person years 20-25% of women are exposed to HIV. Approximately 70% of the new infections are acquired from partners with asymptomatic HIV.

Conclusions

Mathematical models suggest that a high proportion of women enrolled in HIV prevention trials may be unexposed to HIV even when incidence rates are high. The relationship between HIV exposure and other risk factors should be carefully analyzed when future clinical trials are planned.     

Positive Impact of Increases in Condom Use among Female Sex Workers and Clients in a Medium HIV Prevalence Epidemic: Modelling Results from Project SIDA1/2/3 in Cotonou,Benin

Background

A comprehensive, HIV prevention programme (Projet Sida1/2/3) was implemented among female sex workers (FSWs) in Cotonou, Benin, in 1993 following which condom use among FSWs increased threefold between 1993 and 2008 while FSW HIV prevalence declined from 53.3% to 30.4%.

Objective

Estimate the potential impact of the intervention on HIV prevalence/incidence in FSWs, clients and the general population in Cotonou, Benin.

Methods and Findings

A transmission dynamics model parameterised with setting-specific bio-behavioural data was used within a Bayesian framework to fit the model and simulate HIV transmission in the high and low-risk population of Cotonou and to estimate HIV incidence and infections averted by SIDA1/2/3. Our model results suggest that prior to SIDA1/2/3 commercial sex had contributed directly or indirectly to 93% (84–98%) of all cumulative infections and that the observed decline in FSWs HIV prevalence was more consistent with the self-reported post-intervention increase in condom use by FSWs than a counterfactual assuming no change in condom use after 1993 (CF-1). Compared to the counterfactual (CF-1), the increase in condom use may have prevented 62% (52–71%) of new HIV infections among FSWs between 1993 and 2008 and 33% (20–46%) in the overall population.

Conclusions

Our analysis provides plausible evidence that the post-intervention increase in condom use during commercial sex significantly reduced HIV prevalence and incidence among FSWs and general population. Sex worker interventions can be effective even in medium HIV prevalence epidemics and need to be sustained over the long-term.     

Transitions from injection-drug-use-concentrated to self-sustaining heterosexual HIV epidemics: patterns in the international data

Background

Injecting drug use continues to be a primary driver of HIV epidemics in many parts of the world. Many people who inject drugs (PWID) are sexually active, so it is possible that high-seroprevalence HIV epidemics among PWID may initiate self-sustaining heterosexual transmission epidemics.

Methods

Fourteen countries that had experienced high seroprevalence (<20%) HIV epidemics among PWID and had reliable data for injection drug use (IDU) and heterosexual cases of HIV or AIDS were identified. Graphs of newly reported HIV or AIDS cases among PWID and heterosexuals were constructed to identify temporal relationships between the two types of epidemics. The year in which newly reported cases among heterosexuals surpassed newly reported cases among PWID, aspects of the epidemic curves, and epidemic case histories were analyzed to assess whether it was “plausible” or “highly unlikely” that the HIV epidemic among PWID might have initiated the heterosexual epidemic in each country.

Results

Transitions have occurred in 11 of the 14 countries. Two types of temporal relationships between IDU and heterosexual HIV epidemics were identified, rapid high incidence transitions vs. delayed, low incidence transitions. In six countries it appears “plausible” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic, and in five countries it appears “highly unlikely” that the IDU epidemic initiated a heterosexual epidemic. A rapid decline in incidence among PWID after the peak year of new cases and national income were the best predictors of the “highly unlikely” initiation of a heterosexual epidemic.

Discussion

Transitions from IDU concentrated epidemics to heterosexual epidemics are common in countries with high seroprevalence among PWID though there are distinct types of transitions. Interventions to immediately reduce HIV incidence among PWID may reduce the likelihood that an IDU epidemic may initiate a heterosexual epidemic.     

Descriptive Epidemiology of Typhoid Fever during an Epidemic in Harare,Zimbabwe, 2012

Background

Typhoid fever remains a significant public health problem in developing countries. In October 2011, a typhoid fever epidemic was declared in Harare, Zimbabwe - the fourth enteric infection epidemic since 2008. To orient control activities, we described the epidemiology and spatiotemporal clustering of the epidemic in Dzivaresekwa and Kuwadzana, the two most affected suburbs of Harare.

Methods

A typhoid fever case-patient register was analysed to describe the epidemic. To explore clustering, we constructed a dataset comprising GPS coordinates of case-patient residences and randomly sampled residential locations (spatial controls). The scale and significance of clustering was explored with Ripley K functions. Cluster locations were determined by a random labelling technique and confirmed using Kulldorff''s spatial scan statistic.

Principal Findings

We analysed data from 2570 confirmed and suspected case-patients, and found significant spatiotemporal clustering of typhoid fever in two non-overlapping areas, which appeared to be linked to environmental sources. Peak relative risk was more than six times greater than in areas lying outside the cluster ranges. Clusters were identified in similar geographical ranges by both random labelling and Kulldorff''s spatial scan statistic. The spatial scale at which typhoid fever clustered was highly localised, with significant clustering at distances up to 4.5 km and peak levels at approximately 3.5 km. The epicentre of infection transmission shifted from one cluster to the other during the course of the epidemic.

Conclusions

This study demonstrated highly localised clustering of typhoid fever during an epidemic in an urban African setting, and highlights the importance of spatiotemporal analysis for making timely decisions about targetting prevention and control activities and reinforcing treatment during epidemics. This approach should be integrated into existing surveillance systems to facilitate early detection of epidemics and identify their spatial range.     

Fitting the HIV Epidemic in Zambia: A Two-Sex Micro-Simulation Model

Background

In describing and understanding how the HIV epidemic spreads in African countries, previous studies have not taken into account the detailed periods at risk. This study is based on a micro-simulation model (individual-based) of the spread of the HIV epidemic in the population of Zambia, where women tend to marry early and where divorces are not frequent. The main target of the model was to fit the HIV seroprevalence profiles by age and sex observed at the Demographic and Health Survey conducted in 2001.

Methods and Findings

A two-sex micro-simulation model of HIV transmission was developed. Particular attention was paid to precise age-specific estimates of exposure to risk through the modelling of the formation and dissolution of relationships: marriage (stable union), casual partnership, and commercial sex. HIV transmission was exclusively heterosexual for adults or vertical (mother-to-child) for children. Three stages of HIV infection were taken into account. All parameters were derived from empirical population-based data. Results show that basic parameters could not explain the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia. In order to fit the age and sex patterns, several assumptions were made: differential susceptibility of young women to HIV infection, differential susceptibility or larger number of encounters for male clients of commercial sex workers, and higher transmission rate. The model allowed to quantify the role of each type of relationship in HIV transmission, the proportion of infections occurring at each stage of disease progression, and the net reproduction rate of the epidemic (R ₀ = 1.95).

Conclusions

The simulation model reproduced the dynamics of the HIV epidemic in Zambia, and fitted the age and sex pattern of HIV seroprevalence in 2001. The same model could be used to measure the effect of changing behaviour in the future.     

Disparities in HIV Screening among Pregnant Women – El Salvador, 2011

Objectives

To provide an accurate estimate of antenatal HIV screening and its determinants among pregnant women in El Salvador and help local authorities make informed decisions for targeted interventions around mother-to-child transmission (MTCT).

Methods

A total sample of 4,730 women aged 15-49 years were interviewed from a random sample of 3,625 households. We collected data on antenatal care services, including HIV screening, during last pregnancy through a pre-established questionnaire. We used a backward elimination multivariate logistic regression model to examine the association between HIV screening and sociodemographic and health care-related factors.

Results

A total of 2,929 women were included in this analysis. About 98% of participants reported receiving antenatal care, but only 83% of these reported being screened for HIV. Screening was lower in geographic areas with higher HIV incidence and ranged from 69.1% among women who were not seen by a physician during antenatal care, to 93.7% among those who attended or completed college. Odds for screening varied also by age, employment status, household economic expenditure, possession of health care coverage, health care settings, and number of antenatal care visits.

Conclusions

We found disparities in HIV screening during antenatal care at the environmental, social, demographic, and structural levels despite a high uptake of antenatal care in El Salvador. Our findings should urge health authorities to tailor and enhance current strategies implemented to eliminate MTCT and reduce inequities and HIV morbidity among women in El Salvador.     

Detection of Transmission Clusters of HIV-1 Subtype C over a 21-Year Period in Cape Town,South Africa

Introduction

Despite recent breakthroughs in the fight against the HIV/AIDS epidemic within South Africa, the transmission of the virus continues at alarmingly high rates. It is possible, with the use of phylogenetic methods, to uncover transmission events of HIV amongst local communities in order to identify factors that may contribute to the sustained transmission of the virus. The aim of this study was to uncover transmission events of HIV amongst the infected population of Cape Town.

Methods and Results

We analysed gag p24 and RT-pol sequences which were generated from samples spanning over 21-years with advanced phylogenetic techniques. We identified two transmission clusters over a 21-year period amongst randomly sampled patients from Cape Town and the surrounding areas. We also estimated the origin of each of the identified transmission clusters with the oldest cluster dating back, on average, 30 years and the youngest dating back roughly 20 years.

Discussion and Conclusion

These transmission clusters represent the first identified transmission events among the heterosexual population in Cape Town. By increasing the number of randomly sampled specimens within a dataset over time, it is possible to start to uncover transmission events of HIV amongst local communities in generalized epidemics. This information can be used to produce targeted interventions to decrease transmission of HIV in Africa.     

“Let's Talk about Sex”: A Qualitative Study of Rwandan Adolescents' Views on Sex and HIV

Objective

This qualitative study explored the views and experiences of adolescents with perinatally acquired HIV in Kigali, Rwanda, regarding sex, love, marriage, children and hope for the future.

Design

The study enrolled 42 adolescents who had received combination antiretroviral therapy for at least 12 months, and a selection of their primary caregivers. Study methods included 3 multiple day workshops consisting of role-playing and focus group discussions (FGDs) with adolescents, 8 in-depth interviews with adolescents, and one FGD with caregivers.

Results

The adolescents reported experiencing similar sexual needs and dilemmas as most other adolescents, but with an added layer of complexity due to fears related to HIV transmission and/or rejection by partners. They desired more advice from their parents/caregivers on these topics. Although they struggled with aspects of sex, love, marriage and having children, most agreed that they would find love, be married and have children in the future. The two most discussed HIV-related anxieties were how and when to disclose to a (potential) sex/marriage partner and whether to have children. However, most adolescents felt that they had a right to love and be loved, and were aware of prevention-of-mother-to-child-transmission (PMTCT) options in Rwanda. Adolescents generally spoke about their future role in society in a positive manner.

Conclusion

Strengthening the life skills of HIV-positive adolescents, especially around HIV disclosure and reduction of HIV transmission, as well as the support skills of parents/caregivers, may not only reduce onward HIV transmission but also improve quality of life by reducing anxiety.     

Genital herpes has played a more important role than any other sexually transmitted infection in driving HIV prevalence in Africa

Background

Extensive evidence from observational studies suggests a role for genital herpes in the HIV epidemic. A number of herpes vaccines are under development and several trials of the efficacy of HSV-2 treatment with acyclovir in reducing HIV acquisition, transmission, and disease progression have just reported their results or will report their results in the next year. The potential impact of these interventions requires a quantitative assessment of the magnitude of the synergy between HIV and HSV-2 at the population level.

Methods and Findings

A deterministic compartmental model of HIV and HSV-2 dynamics and interactions was constructed. The nature of the epidemiologic synergy was explored qualitatively and quantitatively and compared to other sexually transmitted infections (STIs). The results suggest a more substantial role for HSV-2 in fueling HIV spread in sub-Saharan Africa than other STIs. We estimate that in settings of high HSV-2 prevalence, such as Kisumu, Kenya, more than a quarter of incident HIV infections may have been attributed directly to HSV-2. HSV-2 has also contributed considerably to the onward transmission of HIV by increasing the pool of HIV positive persons in the population and may explain one-third of the differential HIV prevalence among the cities of the Four City study. Conversely, we estimate that HIV had only a small net impact on HSV-2 prevalence.

Conclusions

HSV-2 role as a biological cofactor in HIV acquisition and transmission may have contributed substantially to HIV particularly by facilitating HIV spread among the low-risk population with stable long-term sexual partnerships. This finding suggests that prevention of HSV-2 infection through a prophylactic vaccine may be an effective intervention both in nascent epidemics with high HIV incidence in the high risk groups, and in established epidemics where a large portion of HIV transmission occurs in stable partnerships.     

Projecting HIV Transmission in Japan

Background

Little is known about the epidemiology of HIV in Japan, though newly-identified cases amongst men who have sex with men (MSM) show an increasing trend. Predictions of future trends in the HIV epidemic are essential to identify suitable interventions.

Methods

A deterministic, compartmental model was developed that incorporated risk groups, disease stages, and treatment and testing parameters. This model was calibrated against current figures on new infections and run over 30 years to identify trends in prevalence amongst MSM, low-risk men and low-risk women. Multivariate sensitivity analysis was used to estimate sensitivity ranges for all outcomes.

Results

Without new interventions amongst MSM in Japan, HIV prevalence will climb from its current rate of 2.1% to 10.4% (sensitivity range 7.4% to 18.7%), while HIV prevalence among low-risk men and women will likely decline. With small changes in safer sex behavior and testing rates, HIV prevalence can remain stable or even decline amongst MSM.

Conclusions

Japan is at risk of an epidemic of HIV amongst MSM unless significant changes are made to its current public health intervention framework. More research is necessary to understand the key drivers of the epidemic in Japan.     

Routine HIV Screening in Portugal: Clinical Impact and Cost-Effectiveness

Objective

To compare the clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of routine HIV screening in Portugal to the current practice of targeted and on-demand screening.

Design

We used Portuguese national clinical and economic data to conduct a model-based assessment.

Methods

We compared current HIV detection practices to strategies of increasingly frequent routine HIV screening in Portuguese adults aged 18-69. We considered several subpopulations and geographic regions with varying levels of undetected HIV prevalence and incidence. Baseline inputs for the national case included undiagnosed HIV prevalence 0.16%, annual incidence 0.03%, mean population age 43 years, mean CD4 count at care initiation 292 cells/μL, 63% HIV test acceptance, 78% linkage to care, and HIV rapid test cost €6 under the proposed routine screening program. Outcomes included quality-adjusted survival, secondary HIV transmission, cost, and incremental cost-effectiveness.

Results

One-time national HIV screening increased HIV-infected survival from 164.09 quality-adjusted life months (QALMs) to 166.83 QALMs compared to current practice and had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €28,000 per quality-adjusted life year (QALY). Screening more frequently in higher-risk groups was cost-effective: for example screening annually in men who have sex with men or screening every three years in regions with higher incidence and prevalence produced ICERs of €21,000/QALY and €34,000/QALY, respectively.

Conclusions

One-time HIV screening in the Portuguese national population will increase survival and is cost-effective by international standards. More frequent screening in higher-risk regions and subpopulations is also justified. Given Portugal’s challenging economic priorities, we recommend prioritizing screening in higher-risk populations and geographic settings.     

A Comprehensive Mapping of HIV-1 Genotypes in Various Risk Groups and Regions across China Based on a Nationwide Molecular Epidemiologic Survey

Background

China is experiencing a dynamic HIV/AIDS epidemic. While serology based surveillance systems have reported the spread of HIV/AIDS, detailed tracking of its transmission in populations and regions is not possible without mapping it at the molecular level. We therefore conducted a nationwide molecular epidemiology survey across the country.

Methods

HIV-1 genotypes were determined from 1,408 HIV-positive persons newly diagnosed in 2006. The prevalence of each genotype was estimated by weighting the genotype’s prevalence from each province- and risk-specific subpopulation with the number of reported cases in the corresponding subgroups in that year.

Results

CRF07_BC (35.5%), CRF01_AE (27.6%), CRF08_BC (20.1%), and subtype B'' (9.6%) were the four main HIV-1 strains in China. CRF07_BC and CRF08_BC were the primary drivers of infection among injecting drug users in northeastern and southeastern China, respectively, and subtype B'' remained dominant among former plasma donors in central China. In contrast, all four strains occurred in significant proportions among heterosexuals nationwide, pointing to an expansion of the HIV-1 epidemic from high-risk populations into the general population. CRF01_AE also replaced subtype B as the principal driver of infection among men-who-have-sex-with-men.

Conclusions

Our study provides the first comprehensive baseline data on the diversity and characteristics of HIV/AIDS epidemic in China, reflecting unique region- and risk group-specific transmission dynamics. The results provide information critical for designing effective prevention measures against HIV transmission.     

A Cross-Sectional Randomised Study of Fracture Risk in People with HIV Infection in the Probono 1 Study

Objective

To determine comparative fracture risk in HIV patients compared with uninfected controls.

Design

A randomised cross-sectional study assessing bone mineral density (BMD), fracture history and risk factors in the 2 groups.

Setting

Hospital Outpatients.

Subbbjects

222 HIV infected patients and an equal number of age-matched controls. Assessments: Fracture risk factors were assessed and biochemical, endocrine and bone markers measured. BMD was assessed at hip and spine. 10-year fracture probability (FRAX) and remaining lifetime fracture probability (RFLP) were calculated.

Main Outcome Measures

BMD, and history of fractures.

Results

Reported fractures occurred more frequently in HIV than controls, (45 vs. 16; 20.3 vs. 7%; OR=3.27; p=0.0001), and unsurprisingly in this age range, non-fragility fractures in men substantially contributed to this increase. Osteoporosis was more prevalent in patients with HIV (17.6% vs. 3.6%, p<0.0001). BMD was most reduced, and predicted fracture rates most increased, at the spine. Low BMD was associated with antiretroviral therapy (ART), low body mass index and PTH. 10-year FRAX risk was <5% for all groups. RLFP was greater in patients with HIV (OR=1.22; p=0.003) and increased with ART (2.4 vs. 1.50; OR= 1.50; p=0.03).

Conclusions

The increased fracture rate in HIV patients in our relatively youthful population is partly driven by fractures, including non-fragility fractures, in men. Nonetheless, these findings may herald a rise in osteoporotic fractures in HIV patients. An appropriate screening and management response is required to assess these risks and identify associated lifestyle factors that are also associated with other conditions such as cardiovascular disease and diabetes.     

Shared Air: A Renewed Focus on Ventilation for the Prevention of Tuberculosis Transmission

Background

Despite an improvement in the overall TB cure rate from 40–74% between 1995 and 2011, TB incidence in South Africa continues to increase. The epidemic is notably disquieting in schools because the vulnerable population is compelled to be present. Older learners (age 15–19) are at particular risk given a smear-positive rate of 427 per 100,000 per year and the significant amount of time they spend indoors. High schools are therefore important locations for potential TB infection and thus prevention efforts.

Methods and Findings

Using portable carbon dioxide monitors, we measured CO₂ in classrooms under non-steady state conditions. The threshold for tuberculosis transmission was estimated using a carbon dioxide-based risk equation. We determined a critical rebreathed fraction of carbon dioxide () of 1·6%, which correlates with an indoor CO₂ concentration of 1000 ppm. These values correspond with a ventilation rate of 8·6 l/s per person or 12 air exchanges per hour (ACH) for standard classrooms of 180 m³.

Conclusions

Given the high smear positive rate of high-school adolescents in South Africa, the proposal to achieve CO₂ levels of 1000ppm through natural ventilation (in the amount 12 ACH) will not only help achieve WHO guidelines for providing children with healthy indoor environments, it will also provide a low-cost intervention for helping control the TB epidemic in areas of high prevalence.     

Latitudinal Variations in Seasonal Activity of Influenza and Respiratory Syncytial Virus (RSV): A Global Comparative Review

Background

There is limited information on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) seasonal patterns in tropical areas, although there is renewed interest in understanding the seasonal drivers of respiratory viruses.

Methods

We review geographic variations in seasonality of laboratory-confirmed influenza and RSV epidemics in 137 global locations based on literature review and electronic sources. We assessed peak timing and epidemic duration and explored their association with geography and study settings. We fitted time series model to weekly national data available from the WHO influenza surveillance system (FluNet) to further characterize seasonal parameters.

Results

Influenza and RSV activity consistently peaked during winter months in temperate locales, while there was greater diversity in the tropics. Several temperate locations experienced semi-annual influenza activity with peaks occurring in winter and summer. Semi-annual activity was relatively common in tropical areas of Southeast Asia for both viruses. Biennial cycles of RSV activity were identified in Northern Europe. Both viruses exhibited weak latitudinal gradients in the timing of epidemics by hemisphere, with peak timing occurring later in the calendar year with increasing latitude (P<0.03). Time series model applied to influenza data from 85 countries confirmed the presence of latitudinal gradients in timing, duration, seasonal amplitude, and between-year variability of epidemics. Overall, 80% of tropical locations experienced distinct RSV seasons lasting 6 months or less, while the percentage was 50% for influenza.

Conclusion

Our review combining literature and electronic data sources suggests that a large fraction of tropical locations experience focused seasons of respiratory virus activity in individual years. Information on seasonal patterns remains limited in large undersampled regions, included Africa and Central America. Future studies should attempt to link the observed latitudinal gradients in seasonality of viral epidemics with climatic and population factors, and explore regional differences in disease transmission dynamics and attack rates.     

Estimating the Timing of Mother-to-Child Transmission of the Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type 1 Using a Viral Molecular Evolution Model

Background

Mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) is responsible for most pediatric HIV-1 infections worldwide. It can occur during pregnancy, labor, or breastfeeding. Numerous studies have used coalescent and molecular clock methods to understand the epidemic history of HIV-1, but the timing of vertical transmission has not been studied using these methods. Taking advantage of the constant accumulation of HIV genetic variation over time and using longitudinally sampled viral sequences, we used a coalescent approach to investigate the timing of MTCT.

Materials and Methods

Six-hundred and twenty-two clonal env sequences from the RNA and DNA viral population were longitudinally sampled from nine HIV-1 infected mother-and-child pairs [range: 277–1034 days]. For each transmission pair, timing of MTCT was determined using a coalescent-based model within a Bayesian statistical framework. Results were compared with available estimates of MTCT timing obtained with the classic biomedical approach based on serial HIV DNA detection by PCR assays.

Results

Four children were infected during pregnancy, whereas the remaining five children were infected at time of delivery. For eight out of nine pairs, results were consistent with the transmission periods assessed by standard PCR-based assay. The discordance in the remaining case was likely confused by co-infection, with simultaneous introduction of multiple maternal viral variants at the time of delivery.

Conclusions

The study provided the opportunity to validate the Bayesian coalescent approach that determines the timing of MTCT of HIV-1. It illustrates the power of population genetics approaches to reliably estimate the timing of transmission events and deepens our knowledge about the dynamics of viral evolution in HIV-infected children, accounting for the complexity of multiple transmission events.     

Engagement with HIV Prevention Treatment and Care among Female Sex Workers in Zimbabwe: a Respondent Driven Sampling Survey

Objective(S)

To determine the HIV prevalence and extent of engagement with HIV prevention and care among a representative sample of Zimbabwean sex workers working in Victoria Falls, Hwange and Mutare.

Design

Respondent driven sampling (RDS) surveys conducted at each site.

Methods

Sex workers were recruited using respondent driven sampling with each respondent limited to recruiting 2 peers. Participants completed an interviewer-administered questionnaire and provided a finger prick blood sample for HIV antibody testing. Statistical analysis took account of sampling method.

Results

870 women were recruited from the three sites. HIV prevalence was between 50 and 70%. Around half of those confirmed HIV positive were aware of their HIV status and of those 50-70% reported being enrolled in HIV care programmes. Overall only 25-35% of those with laboratory-confirmed HIV were accessing antiretroviral therapy. Among those reporting they were HIV negative, 21-28% reported having an HIV test in the last 6 months. Of those tested HIV negative, most (65-82%) were unaware of their status. Around two-thirds of sex workers reported consistent condom use with their clients. As in other settings, sex workers reported high rates of gender based violence and police harassment.

Conclusions

This survey suggests that prevalence of HIV is high among sex workers in Zimbabwe and that their engagement with prevention, treatment and care is sub-optimal. Intensifying prevention and care interventions for sex workers has the potential to markedly reduce HIV and social risks for sex workers, their clients and the general population in Zimbabwe and elsewhere in the region.     

Space-Time Clustering Characteristics of Tuberculosis in China, 2005-2011

Objectives

China is one of the 22 tuberculosis (TB) high-burden countries in the world. As TB is a major public health problem in China, spatial analysis could be applied to detect geographic distribution of TB clusters for targeted intervention on TB epidemics.

Methods

Spatial analysis was applied for detecting TB clusters on county-based TB notification data in the national notifiable infectious disease case reporting surveillance system from 2005 to 2011. Two indicators of TB epidemic were used including new sputum smear-positive (SS+) notification rate and total TB notification rate. Global Moran’s I by ArcGIS was used to assess whether TB clustering and its trend were significant. SaTScan software that used the retrospective space-time analysis and Possion probability model was utilized to identify geographic areas and time period of potential clusters with notification rates on county-level from 2005 to 2011.

Results

Two indicators of TB notification had presented significant spatial autocorrelation globally each year (p<0.01). Global Moran’s I of total TB notification rate had positive trend as time went by (t=6.87, p<0.01). The most likely clusters of two indicators had similar spatial distribution and size in the south-central regions of China from 2006 to 2008, and the secondary clusters in two regions: northeastern China and western China. Besides, the secondary clusters of total TB notification rate had two more large clustering centers in Inner Mongolia, Gansu and Qinghai provinces and several smaller clusters in Shanxi, Henan, Hebei and Jiangsu provinces.

Conclusion

The total TB notification cases clustered significantly in some special areas each year and the clusters trended to aggregate with time. The most-likely and secondary clusters that overlapped among two TB indicators had higher TB burden and risks of TB transmission. These were the focused geographic areas where TB control efforts should be prioritized.     

Size Matters: Concurrency and the Epidemic Potential of HIV in Small Networks

Background

Generalized heterosexual epidemics are responsible for the largest share of the global burden of HIV. These occur in populations that do not have high rates of partner acquisition, and research suggests that a pattern of fewer, but concurrent, partnerships may be the mechanism that provides the connectivity necessary for sustained transmission. We examine how network size affects the impact of concurrency on network connectivity.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We use a stochastic network model to generate a sample of networks, varying the size of the network and the level of concurrency, and compare the largest components for each scenario to the asymptotic expected values. While the threshold for the growth of a giant component does not change, the transition is more gradual in the smaller networks. As a result, low levels of concurrency generate more connectivity in small networks.

Conclusions/Significance

Generalized HIV epidemics are by definition those that spread to a larger fraction of the population, but the mechanism may rely in part on the dynamics of transmission in a set of linked small networks. Examples include rural populations in sub-Saharan Africa and segregated minority populations in the US, where the effective size of the sexual network may well be in the hundreds, rather than thousands. Connectivity emerges at lower levels of concurrency in smaller networks, but these networks can still be disconnected with small changes in behavior. Concurrency remains a strategic target for HIV combination prevention programs in this context.