Dispersal of invasive forest insects via recreational firewood: a quantitative analysis

Recreational travel is a recognized vector for the spread of invasive species in North America. However, there has been little quantitative analysis of the risks posed by such travel and the associated transport of firewood. In this study, we analyzed the risk of forest insect spread with firewood and estimated related dispersal parameters for application in geographically explicit invasion models. Our primary data source was the U.S. National Recreation Reservation Service database, which records camper reservations at > 2,500 locations nationwide. For > 7 million individual reservations made between 2004 and 2009 (including visits from Canada), we calculated the distance between visitor home address and campground location. We constructed an empirical dispersal kernel (i.e., the probability distribution of the travel distances) from these "origin-destination" data, and then fitted the data with various theoretical distributions. We found the data to be strongly leptokurtic (fat-tailed) and fairly well fit by the unbounded Johnson and lognormal distributions. Most campers ( approximately 53%) traveled <100 km, but approximately 10% traveled > 500 km (and as far as 5,500 km). Additionally, we examined the impact of geographic region, specific destinations (major national parks), and specific origin locations (major cities) on the shape of the dispersal kernel, and found that mixture distributions (i.e., theoretical distribution functions composed of multiple univariate distributions) may fit better in some circumstances. Although only a limited amount of all transported firewood is likely to be infested by forest insects, this still represents a considerable increase in dispersal potential beyond the insects' natural spread capabilities.     

The geographic synchrony of seasonal influenza: a waves across Canada and the United States

Background

As observed during the 2009 pandemic, a novel influenza virus can spread globally before the epidemic peaks locally. As consistencies in the relative timing and direction of spread could form the basis for an early alert system, the objectives of this study were to use the case-based reporting system for laboratory confirmed influenza from the Canadian FluWatch surveillance program to identify the geographic scale at which spatial synchrony exists and then to describe the geographic patterns of influenza A virus across Canada and in relationship to activity in the United States (US).

Methodology/Principal Findings

Weekly laboratory confirmations for influenza A were obtained from the Canadian FluWatch and the US FluView surveillance programs from 1997/98 to 2006/07. For the six seasons where at least 80% of the specimens were antigenically similar, we identified the epidemic midpoint of the local/regional/provincial epidemics and analyzed trends in the direction of spread. In three out of the six seasons, the epidemic appeared first in Canada. Regional epidemics were more closely synchronized across the US (3–5 weeks) compared to Canada (5–13 weeks), with a slight gradient in timing from the southwest regions in the US to northeast regions of Canada and the US. Cities, as well as rural areas within provinces, usually peaked within a couple of weeks of each other. The anticipated delay in peak activity between large cities and rural areas was not observed. In some mixed influenza A seasons, lack of synchronization sub-provincially was evident.

Conclusions/Significance

As mixing between regions appears to be too weak to force a consistency in the direction and timing of spread, local laboratory-based surveillance is needed to accurately assess the level of influenza activity in the community. In comparison, mixing between urban communities and adjacent rural areas, and between some communities, may be sufficient to force synchronization.     

Trade-associated pathways of alien forest insect entries in Canada

Long-distance introductions of new invasive species have often been driven by socioeconomic factors, such that traditional “biological” invasion models may not be capable of estimating spread fully and reliably. In this study we present a new methodology to characterize and predict pathways of human-assisted entries of alien forest insects. We have developed a stochastic quantitative model of how these species may be moved with commodity flow through a network of international marine ports and major transportation corridors in Canada. The study makes use of a Canadian roadside survey database and data on Canadian marine imports, complemented with geo-referenced information on ports of entry, populated places and empirical observations of historical spread rates for invasive pests. The model is formulated as a probabilistic pathway matrix, and allows for quantitative characterization of likelihoods and vectors of new pest introductions from already or likely-to-be infested locations. We applied the pathway model to estimate the rates of human-assisted entry of alien forest insect species across Canada as well as cross-border transport to locations in the US. Results suggest a relatively low nationwide entry rate for Canada when compared to the US (0.338 new forest insect species per year vs. 1.89). Among Canadian urban areas, Greater Toronto and Greater Vancouver appear to have the highest alien forest insect entry potential, exhibiting species entry rates that are comparable with estimated rates at mid-size US urban metropolises.     

Canadian departments of pediatrics and family medicine: in need of family therapy?

Whether and how much the departments of pediatrics in Canadian medical schools collaborate with the family medicine departments in training for child care were the focus of a survey conducted in 1983-84. Responses to a questionnaire sent to department heads indicated that in general the most supportive relationships existed in the western provinces, with progressively more problems uncovered from west to east. The responses concerning the roles of pediatricians and family physicians paralleled this trend, with the western view being that pediatricians are consultants and not competitors for primary care. Many respondents supported the expansion of family medicine, particularly into ambulatory and behavioural areas. The data provide some cause for concern about the future health care of children, as the forecasted oversupply of physicians is likely to encourage competition rather than consultation between the two groups. Also, many Canadian pediatricians accept the US model of pediatrics, which includes primary care, although in Canada the ratio of family physicians to pediatricians is six times that in the United States, and Canadian specialists are concentrated in urban centres. This means that family physicians will continue to provide most of the child care in Canada and need adequate training. They also need to develop cooperative, supportive relationships with specialists in child health care to enhance appropriate referral patterns.     

Evolving Management Strategies for a Recently Discovered Exotic Forest Pest: The Pine Shoot Beetle, Tomicus Piniperda (Coleoptera)

Established populations of the Eurasian pine shoot beetle (Tomicus piniperda (L.); Coleoptera: Scolytidae) were first discovered in North America in Ohio in 1992. As of 31 December 2000, T. piniperda was found in 303 counties in 12 US states (Illinois, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, New Hampshire, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Vermont, West Virginia, and Wisconsin) and in 43 counties in 2 Canadian provinces (Ontario and Quebec). A federal quarantine imposed in November 1992 regulates movement of pine (Pinus) trees, logs, and certain pine products from infested to uninfested areas within US. The forest products, Christmas tree, and nursery industries are affected by the quarantine. This paper summarizes information on the discovery and spread of T. piniperda in North America, survey efforts, recent interception history, development and changes in the federal quarantine, development of a national compliance management program, and extension and research efforts.     

Contributions to the faunistics and bionomics of Staphylinidae (Coleoptera) in northeastern North America: discoveries made through study of the University of Guelph Insect Collection, Ontario, Canada

Staphylinidae (Rove Beetles) from northeastern North America deposited in the University of Guelph Insect Collection (Ontario, Canada) were curated from 2008-2010 by the first author. The identification of this material has resulted in the recognition of thirty-five new provincial or state records, six new Canadian records, one new record for the United States and two new records for eastern Canada. All records are for subfamilies other than Aleocharinae and Pselaphinae, which will be treated in future publications as collaborative projects. Range expansions of ten exotic species to additional provinces and states are reported. The known distributions of each species in northeastern North America are summarized and presented as maps, and those species with a distinctive habitus are illustrated with color photographs. Genitalia and/or secondary sexual characters are illustrated for those species currently only identifiable on the basis of dissected males. The majority of the new records are in groups that have been recently revised, demonstrating the importance of curation and local insect surveys to the understanding of biodiversity, even for taxa and areas considered 'relatively well-known'.     

KISSMig – a simple model for R to account for limited migration in analyses of species distributions

Detecting the legacy of time‐lagged migration in species ranges is an urgent matter for understanding range dynamics. KISSMig is a simple migration model which generates maps of accessibility from areas of origin and allows the generation and testing of hypotheses about the influence of specific spread patterns on species distributions. KISSMig has important applications: 1) uncovering the influence of limited migration relative to other drivers, 2) detecting areas of origin and their importance as sources of migration, and 3) accounting for limited migration in modeling species distributions. Here we introduce KISSMig and use the oak species Quercus cerris to illustrate these applications.     

What does "local" firewood buy you? Managing the risk of invasive species introduction

Firewood can serve as a vector in the transport of non-native species, including wood-boring insects that feed within the wood and thus can be transported accidentally. Governments have enacted limitations on the movement of firewood in an effort to limit the anthropogenic movement of non-native species through, for example, recreational camping. Although the movement of invasive species through firewood is a documented invasion pathway, it is not trivial for governments to determine a "safe" allowable distance for moving firewood. We were motivated by this challenge and developed a theoretical simulation to determine the campgrounds that could be potentially exposed to infested firewood based upon the hypothetical distribution of an invasive species and the allowable distance for moving firewood. We extend this concept to the known distributions of emerald ash borer, Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae) and Asian longhorned beetle, Anoplophora glabripennis (Motschulsky) Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). We illustrate, based upon theoretical and empirical observations, that as the distribution of an invasive species increases, more rigid constraints on the movement of firewood would be required relative to those species that are distributed over a smaller scale. Also, on the level of management within a state, smaller states have far less margin for error than larger ones, as even extremely rigid restrictions on the movement of firewood could have little management effect unless the infested area is spatially limited. These results collectively suggest the potential for a dynamic management strategy that adjusts allowable distances for firewood movement based upon the distribution of the non-native species.     

Challenges of predicting the potential distribution of a slow-spreading invader: a habitat suitability map for an invasive riparian tree

Understanding the potential spread of invasive species is essential for land managers to prevent their establishment and restore impacted habitat. Habitat suitability modeling provides a tool for researchers and managers to understand the potential extent of invasive species spread. Our goal was to use habitat suitability modeling to map potential habitat of the riparian plant invader, Russian olive (Elaeagnus angustifolia). Russian olive has invaded riparian habitat across North America and is continuing to expand its range. We compiled 11 disparate datasets for Russian olive presence locations (n = 1,051 points and 139 polygons) in the western US and used Maximum entropy (Maxent) modeling to develop two habitat suitability maps for Russian olive in the western United States: one with coarse-scale water data and one with fine-scale water data. Our models were able to accurately predict current suitable Russian olive habitat (Coarse model: training AUC = 0.938, test AUC = 0.907; Fine model: training AUC = 0.923, test AUC = 0.885). Distance to water was the most important predictor for Russian olive presence in our coarse-scale water model, but it was only the fifth most important variable in the fine-scale model, suggesting that when water bodies are considered on a fine scale, Russian olive does not necessarily rely on water. Our model predicted that Russian olive has suitable habitat further west from its current distribution, expanding into the west coast and central North America. Our methodology proves useful for identifying potential future areas of invasion. Model results may be influenced by locations of cultivated individuals and sampling bias. Further study is needed to examine the potential for Russian olive to invade beyond its current range. Habitat suitability modeling provides an essential tool for enhancing our understanding of invasive species spread.     

Distribution and habitat of endangered American burying beetle in northern and southern regions

The American burying beetle, Nicrophorus americanus, is a federally endangered insect that once occurred in 35 US states and 3 Canadian provinces. Today, it remains at the periphery of its former range with the largest populations concentrated in Nebraska and Oklahoma. We assessed beetle occurrence records throughout the western ranges in Nebraska and Oklahoma, but excluded a small eastern population on Block Island, Rhode Island. We compiled more than 2500 presence–absence records and used GIS-based random forest models to create distribution maps throughout the current western range of the American burying beetle based on habitat characteristics within 800 m of each trap. We also used generalized linear models to identify habitat characteristics associated with N. americanus occurrences and to document differences between northern and southern habitat associations. In its northern range, N. americanus was associated with wetter areas while avoiding agricultural and urban areas. In the southern range, N. americanus was associated with sandy soils, hayfields, and native forests and grasslands, while avoiding human population centers and agricultural areas. Our N. americanus distribution maps for the northern and southern regions highlight areas where N. americanus is likely to occur, providing a tool that may improve current management. This first attempt at a range-wide model of American burying beetle occurrences revealed important differences among regions and can improve region-specific management and conservation.     

Chronic wasting disease

Until recently, chronic wasting disease of cervids, the only prion disease affecting wildlife, was believed to be geographically concentrated to Colorado and Wyoming within the United States. However, increased surveillance has unveiled several additional pockets of CWD-infected deer and elk in 12 additional states and 2 Canadian provinces. Deer and elk with CWD have extensive aggregates of PrP(Sc) not only in the central nervous system, but also in peripheral lymphoid tissues, skeletal muscle, and other organs, perhaps influencing prion shedding. Indeed, CWD is transmitted efficiently among animals by horizontal routes, although the mechanism of spread is unknown. Genetic polymorphisms in the Prnp gene may affect CWD susceptibility, particularly at codon 225 (S/F) in deer and codon 132 (M/L) in elk. Since CWD infects free-ranging animals and is efficiently spread, disease management will be a challenge.     

Modelling Interactions between Forest Pest Invasions and Human Decisions Regarding Firewood Transport Restrictions

The invasion of nonnative, wood-boring insects such as the Asian longhorned beetle (A. glabripennis) and the emerald ash borer (A. planipennis) is a serious ecological and economic threat to Canadian deciduous and mixed-wood forests. Humans act as a major vector for the spread of these pests via firewood transport, although existing models do not explicitly capture human decision-making regarding firewood transport. In this paper we present a two-patch coupled human-environment system model that includes social influence and long-distance firewood transport and examines potential strategies for mitigating pest spread. We found that increasing concern regarding infestations (f) significantly reduced infestation. Additionally it resulted in multiple thresholds at which the intensity of infestation in a patch was decreased. It was also found that a decrease in the cost of firewood purchased in the area where it is supposed to be burned (C _l) resulted in an increased proportion of local-firewood strategists, and a 67% decrease in C _l from $6.75 to $4.50 was sufficient to eliminate crosspatch infestation. These effects are synergistic: increasing concern through awareness and education campaigns acts together with reduced firewood costs, thereby reducing the required threshold of both awareness and economic incentives. Our results indicate that the best management strategy includes a combination of public education paired with firewood subsidization.     

Genetic analysis of emerald ash borer (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Agrilus planipennis</Emphasis> Fairmaire) populations in Asia and North America

Emerald ash borer (EAB), Agrilus planipennis Fairmaire (Coleoptera: Buprestidae), is an invasive pest of North American ash (Fraxinus spp.) trees first discovered outside of its native range of northeastern Asia in 2002. EAB spread from its initial zone of discovery in the Detroit, Michigan and Windsor, Ontario metropolitan areas, in large part, from inadvertent human-assisted movement of infested ash materials. EAB infestations are now known in 15 US states and two Canadian provinces. The primary goal of this study was to use molecular markers to characterize the population genetic structure of EAB in its native and introduced range. This information may provide valuable insights on the geographic origin, potential host range, invasion potential, and additional biological control agents for ongoing management efforts of this destructive wood-boring beetle. EAB were collected from 17 localities in its native Asian range and from 7 localities in North America, and population structure analyzed using mtDNA gene sequences, AFLP fingerprints, and alleles at 2 microsatellite loci. Analysis of mtDNA cytochrome oxidase subunit I gene (COI; 439 bp) sequences revealed all North American individuals carry a common mtDNA haplotype also found in China and South Korea. Additional mtDNA haplotypes observed in China and South Korea differed from the common haplotype by 1–2 nucleotide substitutions and a single individual from Japan differed by 21 nucleotide changes (4.8%). Analysis using AFLP fingerprints (108 loci) indicated Asian populations were more highly variable, yet had less overall population structure, than the North American populations. North American populations appear most closely related to populations in our sample from the Chinese provinces of Hebei and Tianjin City. Further, population assignment tests assigned 88% of the individual beetles from North America to either Hebei or Tianjin City.     

Chronic wasting disease

Until recently, chronic wasting disease of cervids, the only prion disease affecting wildlife, was believed to be geographically concentrated to Colorado and Wyoming within the United States. However, increased surveillance has unveiled several additional pockets of CWD-infected deer and elk in 12 additional states and 2 Canadian provinces. Deer and elk with CWD have extensive aggregates of PrP^Sc not only in the central nervous system, but also in peripheral lymphoid tissues, skeletal muscle, and other organs, perhaps influencing prion shedding. Indeed, CWD is transmitted efficiently among animals by horizontal routes, although the mechanism of spread is unknown. Genetic polymorphisms in the Prnp gene may affect CWD susceptibility, particularly at codon 225 (S/F) in deer and codon 132 (M/L) in elk. Since CWD infects free-ranging animals and is efficiently spread, disease management will be a challenge.     

Coupled Human-Environment Dynamics of Forest Pest Spread and Control in a Multi-Patch,Stochastic Setting

Background

The transportation of camp firewood infested by non-native forest pests such as Asian long-horned beetle (ALB) and emerald ash borer (EAB) has severe impacts on North American forests. Once invasive forest pests are established, it can be difficult to eradicate them. Hence, preventing the long-distance transport of firewood by individuals is crucial.

Methods

Here we develop a stochastic simulation model that captures the interaction between forest pest infestations and human decisions regarding firewood transportation. The population of trees is distributed across 10 patches (parks) comprising a “low volume” partition of 5 patches that experience a low volume of park visitors, and a “high volume” partition of 5 patches experiencing a high visitor volume. The infestation spreads within a patch—and also between patches—according to the probability of between-patch firewood transportation. Individuals decide to transport firewood or buy it locally based on the costs of locally purchased versus transported firewood, social norms, social learning, and level of concern for observed infestations.

Results

We find that the average time until a patch becomes infested depends nonlinearly on many model parameters. In particular, modest increases in the tree removal rate, modest increases in public concern for infestation, and modest decreases in the cost of locally purchased firewood, relative to baseline (current) values, cause very large increases in the average time until a patch becomes infested due to firewood transport from other patches, thereby better preventing long-distance spread. Patches that experience lower visitor volumes benefit more from firewood movement restrictions than patches that experience higher visitor volumes. Also, cross–patch infestations not only seed new infestations, they can also worsen existing infestations to a surprising extent: long-term infestations are more intense in the high volume patches than the low volume patches, even when infestation is already endemic everywhere.

Conclusions

The success of efforts to prevent long-distance spread of forest pests may depend sensitively on the interaction between outbreak dynamics and human social processes, with similar levels of effort producing very different outcomes depending on where the coupled human and natural system exists in parameter space. Further development of such modeling approaches through better empirical validation should yield more precise recommendations for ways to optimally prevent the long-distance spread of invasive forest pests.     

Will climate change be beneficial or detrimental to the invasive swede midge in North America? Contrasting predictions using climate projections from different general circulation models

Climate change may dramatically affect the distribution and abundance of organisms. With the world's population size expected to increase significantly during the next 100 years, we need to know how climate change might impact our food production systems. In particular, we need estimates of how future climate might alter the distribution of agricultural pests. We used the climate projections from two general circulation models (GCMs) of global climate, the Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis GCM (CGCM2) and the Hadley Centre model (HadCM3), for the A2 and B2 scenarios from the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios in conjunction with a previously published bioclimatic envelope model (BEM) to predict the potential changes in distribution and abundance of the swede midge, Contarinia nasturtii, in North America. The BEM in conjunction with either GCM predicted that C. nasturtii would spread from its current initial invasion in southern Ontario and northwestern New York State into the Canadian prairies, northern Canada, and midwestern United States, but the magnitude of risk depended strongly on the GCM and the scenario used. When the CGCM2 projections were used, the BEM predicted an extensive shift in the location of the midges' climatic envelope through most of Ontario, Quebec, and the maritime and prairie provinces by the 2080s. In the United States, C. nasturtii was predicted to spread to all the Great Lake states, into midwestern states as far south as Colorado, and west into Washington State. When the HadCM3 was applied, southern Ontario, Saskatchewan, and Washington State were not as favourable for C. nasturtii by the 2080s. Indeed, when used with the HadCM3 climate projections, the BEM predicted the virtual disappearance of ‘very favourable’ regions for C. nasturtii. The CGCM2 projections generally caused the BEM to predict a small increase in the mean number of midge generations throughout the course of the century, whereas, the HadCM3 projections resulted in roughly the same mean number of generations but decreased variance. Predictions of the likely potential of C. nasturtii spatial spread are thus strongly dependent on the source of climate projections. This study illustrates the importance of using multiple GCMs in combination with multiple scenarios when studying the potential for spatial spread of an organism in response to climate change.     

Climate suitability and management of the gypsy moth invasion into Canada

The gypsy moth has become established throughout southern Canada east of Lake Superior where the climate is suitable for the completion of its univoltine life cycle. The spread of the gypsy moth to the north and west in Canada has so far been prevented by climatic barriers and host plant availability as well as by aggressive eradication of incipient populations. Climate change is expected to increase the area of climatic suitability and result in greater overlap with susceptible forest types throughout Canada, especially in the west. At the same time, the gypsy moth is spreading west in the USA into states bordering western Canadian provinces. These circumstances all lead to a greatly increased risk of further invasion into Canadian forests by the gypsy moth. Management actions need to be intensified in different ways in different parts of the country to reduce the impacts of spread in eastern Canada and to prevent the gypsy moth from invading western regions.     

Birth defects interstate data exchange: a battle worth fighting?

BACKGROUND: Regardless of where infants and children are delivered, diagnosed, or treated, an important aspect of population-based birth defects surveillance is ensuring the inclusion of children with birth defects in the catchment area. However, little is known as to how the lack of interstate birth defects data exchange affects program surveillance, monitoring, prevention, and referral activities. The study objectives were to determine the status of interstate birth defects data exchange agreements and to quantify statewide data on resident births occurring in nonresident states. METHODS: In 2004, surveys were distributed to all population-based birth defects programs in the United States to determine: 1) the types of interstate birth defects data exchange agreements that exist among birth defects programs, 2) perceived barriers in establishing exchange agreements, and 3) the extent to which out-of-state births affect a program's catchment area. The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) data for 2002 on live birth residency were used to determine the actual frequency of out-of-state live birth occurrence. RESULTS: Of the 52 states and territories that were surveyed, 65% (n = 34) responded. Approximately 21% (n = 7) of those that responded had an interstate data exchange agreement that allowed sharing of birth defects data with another state or a facility within another state. Approximately 53% (n = 18) of responding states indicated plans to develop an interstate birth defects data exchange agreement with other states, hospitals, or both. The NCHS data showed that the actual percentage of resident out-of-state live births ranged from 0.16 to 11.51. NCHS data also reveal that 78% of states would be able to capture >75% of their out-of-state births by sharing data on out-of-state births with the three neighboring states ranking highest in terms of such occurrences. CONCLUSIONS: Few states have interstate birth defects data exchange agreements, though all states have resident births occurring out of state. While suggestive, data beyond residency of live births are needed to quantify the degree to which the objectives of state-based birth defects programs are compromised. Resources exist to guide programs in establishing interstate data exchange agreements. Efforts to establish such agreements with only a few neighboring states could be a large step toward improving birth defects surveillance on a state, regional, and national level.     

US editorial writers put Canadian health care under microscope

Editorial writers from the US descended on Ottawa recently for their annual meeting, and CMAJ contributing editor Charlotte Gray was one of the speakers. She said the visitors received widely differing views on the Canadian health care system and may have emerged from the meeting more confused than informed.