The model of Kermack and McKendrick for the plague epidemic in Bombay and the type reproduction number with seasonality

The figure showing how the model of Kermack and McKendrick fits the data from the 1906 plague epidemic in Bombay is the most reproduced figure in books discussing mathematical epidemiology. In this paper we show that the assumption of constant parameters in the model leads to quite unrealistic numerical values for these parameters. Moreover the reports published at the time show that plague epidemics in Bombay occurred in fact with a remarkable seasonal pattern every year since 1897 and at least until 1911. So the 1906 epidemic is clearly not a good example of epidemic stopping because the number of susceptible humans has decreased under a threshold, as suggested by Kermack and McKendrick, but an example of epidemic driven by seasonality. We present a seasonal model for the plague in Bombay and compute the type reproduction numbers associated with rats and fleas, thereby extending to periodic models the notion introduced by Roberts and Heesterbeek.     

Database management system for the control of malaria in Arunachal Pradesh, India

The Arunachal Pradesh state in India is epidemic for malaria, caused by P.vivax and P.falciparum. Despite the implementation of several control strategies, the outbreak of malaria in the state is mainly due to lack of proper information regarding the disease. Hence, we completed a database to help implement appropriate control strategy for the public health officials in Arunachal Pradesh. AVAILABILITY: www.envisiict.org.     

The Global Crisis of Malaria: Report on a Yale Conference

An international conference, “The Global Crisis of Malaria: Lessons of the Past and Future Prospects,” met at Yale University, November 7-9, 2008. The symposium was organized by Professor Frank Snowden and sponsored by the Provost’s office, the MacMillan Center, the Program in the History of Science and History of Medicine, and the Section of the History of Medicine at the Yale School of Medicine. It brought together experts on malaria from a variety of disciplines, countries, and experiences — physicians, research scientists, historians of medicine, public health officials, and representatives of several non-governmental organizations (NGOs). An underlying theme was that much could be gained from a big-picture examination across disciplinary frontiers of the contemporary public health problem caused by malaria. Particular features of the conference were its intense scrutiny of historical successes and failures in malaria control and its demonstration of the relevance of history to policy discussions in the field.     

A historical perspective on malaria control in Brazil

Malaria has always been an important public health problem in Brazil. The early history of Brazilian malaria and its control was powered by colonisation by Europeans and the forced relocation of Africans as slaves. Internal migration brought malaria to many regions in Brazil where, given suitableAnopheles mosquito vectors, it thrived. Almost from the start, officials recognised the problem malaria presented to economic development, but early control efforts were hampered by still developing public health control and ignorance of the underlying biology and ecology of malaria. Multiple regional and national malaria control efforts have been attempted with varying success. At present, the Amazon Basin accounts for 99% of Brazil’s reported malaria cases with regional increases in incidence often associated with large scale public works or migration. Here, we provide an exhaustive summary of primary literature in English, Spanish and Portuguese regarding Brazilian malaria control. Our goal was not to interpret the history of Brazilian malaria control from a particular political or theoretical perspective, but rather to provide a straightforward, chronological narrative of the events that have transpired in Brazil over the past 200 years and identify common themes.     

Epidemiological characteristics of Angola

The epidemiological analysis of infectious morbidity for recent years has been made and the main nosological forms existing in Angola (malaria, tuberculosis, lepra, African trypanosomiasis, plague, intestinal diseases, etc.) have been briefly characterized on the basis of primary medical reports and the data provided by the literature and experimental work. This analysis creates the necessary prerequisites which enable the local public health organs to determine the regularities of the epidemic process, thus making it possible to take rational prophylactic measures and to organize proper epidemiological supervision.     

Centenary commemorations or centenary contestations?—Celebrating a hundred years of cinema in Bombay

The commemorations of the hundredth year of the arrival of cinema in India staged by the Government of Maharashtra were a combination of public and semi‐public rituals inscribing the history of cinema in India onto the urban landscape of Bombay. This article examines those commemorations to show how the history of cinema becomes an arena for the state to proclaim its distinct cultural identity. The centenary commemorations are an example of how a world‐historical moment like the Lumière screenings is appropriated by the state government to assert a particular cultural claim over the city of Bombay.     

Observations on commensal rats and their status to plague in Bombay

The distribution pattern of various types of commensal rodents in Bombay city reveals that Bandicota bengalensis constitutes the predominant commensal rodent species followed by R. rattus and Rattus norvegicus. Apart from these three types, Bandicota indica, M. musculus and an insectivore (Suncus murinus) are the three species of commensal small mammals that are frequently encountered in or near human habitations. These small mammals are prevalent throughout the year and their percentage distribution varies very little during different months of the year. None of the rodent species examined during the years 1976-85 revealed presence of Y. pestis infection by bacteriological or serological methods. From these findings, it could be concluded that in the city of Bombay a focus of zoonotic plague infection does not exist.     

Inception of the Modern Public Health System in China and Perspectives for Effective Control of Emerging Infectious Diseases: In Commemoration of the 140th Anniversary of the Birth of the Plague Fighter Dr. Wu Lien-Teh

In this article, we systematically review Dr. Wu Lien-Teh's academic achievements and outstanding contributions in the prevention and control of the plague epidemic in northeast China and introduce the development of the earliest public health epidemic prevention system in China in order to commemorate the 140th anniversary of Dr. Wu Lien-Teh's birth. We hope that this article will provide insights into the effective prevention and control of emerging infectious diseases as well as the current worldwide pandemic of COVID-19, facilitating the improvement and development of public health systems in China and around the globe.     

青海省鼠疫的防控策略

鼠疫曾给人类带来3次世界性灾难,剥夺了上亿人的生命。作为危害人类健康最为严重的烈性传染病之一,鼠疫的防控工作显得尤为重要。新中国成立后,党和政府大力开展鼠疫防控工作,开展流行病调查,制定各项防控措施。虽然全国范围在较短的时间内遏制了鼠疫流行的猛烈势头,但在西部地区人间鼠疫时有发生。青海省地处我国西部,就其鼠疫流行特征制定了适合本地鼠疫的防控模式。本文就“青海模式”的工作机制、调查监测、宣传教育、人员培训、隐患排查等进行介绍,阐述青海省鼠疫防控工作的成效,为中国传染病防控策略发展提出新的思考。     

Suncus murinus. Observations on ecology, distribution, status to plague in Bombay

The common house shrew Suncus murinus has been shown to play an important role in maintenance and perpetuation of plague infection by earlier plague workers. With the control of human plague there is no knowledge about foci of plague in small mammals associated with man. Present study was carried out to fill in this Lacuna. Studies carried out in the present paper reveal that S. murinus does not harbour any plague infection in Bombay. This species is widely distributed in Bombay and is found to be associated with man throughout the year. The principal species of fleas harboured by this mammal is Xenopsylla cheopis. The insectivore mainly feeds on tine animals and insects and breeds throughout the year.     

Population-Based Laboratory Surveillance of Imported Malaria in Metropolitan Calgary, 2000–2011

Increased travel leads to a heightened risk of imported infectious diseases. Patterns of immigration to countries like Canada have changed such that countries of malaria endemicity are frequented in larger numbers. In keeping with the changes in travel patterns and immigration, the major metropolitan city of Calgary has seen a dramatic rise in malaria incidence over the last decade. Fuelling this rise in Calgary has been the apparent complacence with prophylaxis in individuals visiting friends and relatives and potentially inadequate public health intervention in areas of the city with increased immigration and lower socioeconomic status.     

Understanding and improving access to prompt and effective malaria treatment and care in rural Tanzania: the ACCESS Programme

Background

Malaria is a significant public health problem in Tanzania. Approximately 16 million malaria cases are reported every year and 100,000 to 125,000 deaths occur. Although most of Tanzania is endemic to malaria, epidemics occur in the highlands, notably in Kagera, a region that was subject to widespread malaria epidemics in 1997 and 1998. This study examined the relationship between climate and malaria incidence in Kagera with the aim of determining whether seasonal forecasts may assist in predicting malaria epidemics.

Methods

A regression analysis was performed on retrospective malaria and climatic data during each of the two annual malaria seasons to determine the climatic factors influencing malaria incidence. The ability of the DEMETER seasonal forecasting system in predicting the climatic anomalies associated with malaria epidemics was then assessed for each malaria season.

Results

It was found that malaria incidence is positively correlated with rainfall during the first season (Oct-Mar) (R-squared = 0.73, p < 0.01). For the second season (Apr-Sep), high malaria incidence was associated with increased rainfall, but also with high maximum temperature during the first rainy season (multiple R-squared = 0.79, p < 0.01). The robustness of these statistical models was tested by excluding the two epidemic years from the regression analysis. DEMETER would have been unable to predict the heavy El Niño rains associated with the 1998 epidemic. Nevertheless, this epidemic could still have been predicted using the temperature forecasts alone. The 1997 epidemic could have been predicted from observed temperatures in the preceding season, but the consideration of the rainfall forecasts would have improved the temperature-only forecasts over the remaining years.

Conclusion

These results demonstrate the potential of a seasonal forecasting system in the development of a malaria early warning system in Kagera region.     

Malaria control: present situation and need for historical research

A rapid review is made of the history of malaria control, calling attention to differences between the evolution of the technical concepts, the formulated strategies and their implementation. Particular emphasis is placed on the discussion of the present situation of the world malaria problem and the difficulties faced by many endemic countries in adopting a malaria control strategy, based on primary health care, while their services are vertically organized for the performance of routines, which are irrelevant for disease control. The present malaria control strategy recognizes local variability, but it is possible to identify a limited number of types of situations, likely to respond to similar approaches. The definition not only of the control approaches but also of their conditions of applicability will become more precise as experiences are accumulated and adequately documented from different types of epidemiological situations. It is postulated that historical research on the malaria control and public health approaches, with proper attention being given to their socioeconomic and political context, in the countries which succeeded in controlling endemic malaria, will make an important contribution to such a definition.     

Problem of bioterrorism under modern conditions

It is practically impossible to discuss the problem of bioterrorism (BT) and to develop effective programs of decreasing the losses and expenses suffered by the society from the BT acts without evaluation of the threat and prognosis of consequences based on research and empiric data. Stained international situation following the act of terrorism (attack on the USA) on September 11, 2001, makes the scenarios of the bacterial weapon use (the causative agents of plague, smallpox, anthrax, etc.) by international terrorists most probable. In this connection studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of BT, including mathematical and computer modelling, are necessary. The authors present the results of initiative studies on the analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the hypothetical act of BT with the use of the smallpox causative agent in a city with the population of about 1,000,000 inhabitants. The analytical prognostic studies on the operative analysis and prognostication of the consequences of the BT act with the use of the smallpox causative agent has demonstrated that the mathematical (computer) model of the epidemic outbreak of smallpox is an effective instrument of calculation studies. Prognostic evaluations of the consequences of the act of BT under the conditions of different reaction of public health services (time of detection, interventions) have been obtained with the use of modelling. In addition, the computer model is necessary for training health specialists to react adequately to the acts of BT with the use of different kinds of bacteriological weapons.     

Dissecting recurrent waves of pertussis across the boroughs of London

Pertussis has resurfaced in the UK, with incidence levels not seen since the 1980s. While the fundamental causes of this resurgence remain the subject of much conjecture, the study of historical patterns of pathogen diffusion can be illuminating. Here, we examined time series of pertussis incidence in the boroughs of Greater London from 1982 to 2013 to document the spatial epidemiology of this bacterial infection and to identify the potential drivers of its percolation. The incidence of pertussis over this period is characterized by 3 distinct stages: a period exhibiting declining trends with 4-year inter-epidemic cycles from 1982 to 1994, followed by a deep trough until 2006 and the subsequent resurgence. We observed systematic temporal trends in the age distribution of cases and the fade-out profile of pertussis coincident with increasing national vaccine coverage from 1982 to 1990. To quantify the hierarchy of epidemic phases across the boroughs of London, we used the Hilbert transform. We report a consistent pattern of spatial organization from 1982 to the early 1990s, with some boroughs consistently leading epidemic waves and others routinely lagging. To determine the potential drivers of these geographic patterns, a comprehensive parallel database of borough-specific features was compiled, comprising of demographic, movement and socio-economic factors that were used in statistical analyses to predict epidemic phase relationships among boroughs. Specifically, we used a combination of a feed-forward neural network (FFNN), and SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) values to quantify the contribution of each covariate to model predictions. Our analyses identified a number of predictors of a borough’s historical epidemic phase, specifically the age composition of households, the number of agricultural and skilled manual workers, latitude, the population of public transport commuters and high-occupancy households. Univariate regression analysis of the 2012 epidemic identified the ratio of cumulative unvaccinated children to the total population and population of Pakistan-born population to have moderate positive and negative association, respectively, with the timing of epidemic. In addition to providing a comprehensive overview of contemporary pertussis transmission in a large metropolitan population, this study has identified the characteristics that determine the spatial spread of this bacterium across the boroughs of London.     

Addressing the challenge for expedient ethical review of research in disasters and disease outbreaks

Guideline 20 of the updated International Ethics Guidelines for Health‐related Research Involving Humans (2016) by the Council for International Organizations of Medical Sciences (CIOMS) provides guidance on research in disasters and disease outbreaks against the background of the need to generate knowledge quickly, overcome practical impediments to implementing such research, and the need to maintain public trust. The guideline recommends that research ethics committees could pre‐screen study protocols to expedite ethical reviews in a situation of crisis, that pre‐arrangements be made regarding data sharing and biomedical sample sharing, and that sponsors and research ethics committees seek to minimize risk to researchers conducting research during a disaster. This paper critiques these recommendations against the background of the findings of a survey of public health officials and chairs of research ethics committees in the Caribbean during 2016, which sought to determine the best template for the expeditious ethical review of research proposals in emergency and epidemic situations in the Caribbean, and whose findings can serve as a model for other low‐ and middle‐income countries.     

Malaria in the whole world and in Romania

Malaria is the world's most important tropical parasitic disease. Malaria is a public health problem today in more than 90 countries. Worldwide prevalence of the disease is estimated to be in the order of 300-500 million clinical cases each year. Malaria is endemic in a total of 101 countries and territories. In Romania, malaria does not represent an important public health problem. In 1999, there were reported a total number of 32 malaria cases in Romanian people. 78% from these recognized as etiological agent Pl. falciparum. The malaria cases imported from Turkey (5) have had as etiological agent Pl. vivax. The most affected age group is between 21-50 years and a distribution by profession shows that sailor personnel accounts for 65.6% of all cases. Africa remains the most important endemic region from where the malaria cases in Romanian people are imported. An adequate chemoprophylaxis is not, yet, easy to obtain for Romanian people who are travelling abroad in endemic countries because of the lack of specific drugs (especially for resistant forms of Pl. falciparum). Even if the Romanian Ministry of Health had elaborated orders regarding malaria and Cloroquine is the usual drug administered, as chemoprophylaxis, to Romanian people who travel abroad, in each year in our country appears around 30-60 imported malaria cases. That is the cause why Romanian Ministry of Health wants to solve this problem which is the major cause of the malaria cases in Romanian people.     

鼠疫的流行病学概述

鼠疫是由鼠疫耶尔森菌(Yersinia pestis)引起严重危害人类健康的烈性传染病。本文介绍了鼠疫病原体——鼠疫耶尔森菌的一般特性及生物学特性, 并对国内、外鼠疫疫情现状进行总结。目前鼠疫在全球范围内的流行已进入新的活跃期,世界卫生组织将鼠疫列为近20年来重新流行的急性传染病之一。当前,全球疫区主要分布在非洲、亚洲和南美洲。我国人间鼠疫自20世纪80年代开始处于明显回升势态,近10年流行逐渐下降,但防控形势依然艰巨。     

Punctuated equilibrium in a neontological context

The theory of punctuated equilibrium, which proposes that biological species evolve rapidly when they originate rather than gradually over time, has sparked intense debate between palaeontologists and evolutionary biologists about the mode of character evolution and the importance of natural selection. Difficulty in interpreting the fossil record prevented consensus, and it remains disputed as to what extent gradual change in established species is responsible for phenotypic differences between species. Against the historical background of the concept of evolution concentrated in speciation events, we review attempts to investigate tempo and mode of evolution using present-day species since the introduction of the theory of punctuated equilibrium in 1972. We discuss advantages, disadvantages, and prospects of using neontological data, methodological advances, and the findings of some recent studies.     

The politics of pathology: how obesity became an epidemic disease

Americans' recent weight gains have been widely described as an "obesity epidemic." Such a characterization, however, has many problems: the average American weight gain has been relatively low (eight to 12 pounds over the last 20 years), and the causal linkages between adiposity, morbidity, and mortality are unclear. Nevertheless, the media and numerous health officials continue to sound dire warnings that obesity has become an epidemic disease. In this article, I examine how and why America's growing weight became an "obesity epidemic." I find the disease characterization has less to do with the health consequences of excess weight and more with the various financial and political incentives of the weight loss industry, medical profession, and public health bureaucracy. This epidemic image was also assisted by the method of displaying information about weight gain with maps in PowerPoint slides. Such characterizations, I argue, are problematic. Given the inconclusive scientific evidence and the absence of a safe and effective weight loss regimen, calling America's growing weight an epidemic disease is likely to cause more harm than good.