Spring arrival response to climate change in birds: a case study from eastern Europe

This paper analyses the dependence of the first spring arrival dates of short/medium- and long-distance migrant bird species on climate warming in eastern Europe. The timing of arrival of the selected species at the observation site correlates with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index, air temperature, atmospheric pressure, precipitation and wind characteristics. A positive correlation of fluctuations in winter and spring air temperatures with variations in the NAO index has been established in eastern Europe. Positive winter NAO index values are related to earlier spring arrival of birds in the eastern Baltic region and vice versa—arrival is late when the NAO index is negative. The impact of climate warming on the bird’s life cycle depends on local or regional climate characteristics. We tested the hypothesis that differences in climate indices between North Africa and Europe can influence the timing of spring arrival. Our results support the hypothesis that differences in first spring arrival dates between European populations occur after individuals cross the Sahara. We assume that the endogenous programme of migration control in short/medium-distance migrants synchronises with the changing environment on their wintering grounds and along their migration routes, whereas in long-distance migrants it is rather with environmental changes in the second part of their migratory route in Europe. Our results strongly indicate that the mechanism of dynamic balance in the interaction between the endogenous regulatory programme and environmental factors determines the pattern of spring arrival, as well as migration timing.     

Diet composition and food consumption rate of harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) in the western Baltic Sea

Stomach content composition and prey‐specific consumption rates of juvenile and adult harbor porpoises (Phocoena phocoena) were estimated from a data set including 339 stomachs collected over a 32 yr period (1980–2011) in the western Baltic Sea. The stomach contents were mainly hard parts of fish prey and in particular otoliths. The bias originating from differential residence time of otoliths in the stomachs was addressed by use of a recently developed approach. Atlantic cod and herring were the main prey of adults, constituting on average 70% of the diet mass. Juvenile porpoises also frequently consumed gobies. Here, the mass contribution by gobies was on average 25%, which was as much as cod. Other species such as whiting, sprat, eelpout, and sandeels were of minor importance for both juveniles and adults. The diet composition differed between years, quarters, and porpoise acquisition method. Yearly consumption rates for porpoises in the western Baltic Sea were obtained in three scenarios on the daily energy requirements of a porpoise in combination with an estimate including the 95% CLs of the porpoise population size. Cod of age groups 1 and 2 and intermediate‐sized herring suffered the highest predation from porpoises.     

North Sea cod and climate change – modelling the effects of temperature on population dynamics

In order to examine the likely impacts of climate change on fish stocks, it is necessary to couple the output from large‐scale climate models to fisheries population simulations. Using projections of future North Sea surface temperatures for the period 2000–2050 from the Hadley General Circulation Model, we estimate the likely effects of climate change on the North Sea cod population. Output from the model suggests that increasing temperatures will lead to an increased rate of decline in the North Sea cod population compared with simulations that ignore environmental change. Although the simulation developed here is relatively simplistic, we demonstrate that inclusion of environmental factors in population models can markedly alter one's perception of how the population will behave. The development of simulations incorporating environment effects will become increasingly important as the impacts of climate change on the marine ecosystem become more pronounced.     

European Policy Review: Biodiversity and climate change

Climate change and its impacts on biodiversity have gained much political and scientific interest over the past decade. In order for the right policy measures to be taken on adaptation and mitigation, research and stakeholder involvement has a strong role to play to support decision makers. This paper provides an overview of recent developments and research needs in Europe.     

气候变化对森林演替的影响

森林演替是森林生态动力源驱动下森林再生的生态学过程,自20世纪初建立群落演替理论以来,演替研究成为生态学研究中的热点．客观准确地认识森林演替规律,研究森林演替动力学机理及其模型,是科学管理森林生态系统的需要;对于天然林保护工程与森林植被的恢复重建,具有重要的理论与实际意义．干扰是森林循环的驱动力,导致森林生态系统时空异质性,是更新格局和生态学过程的主要影响因素．它可改变资源的有效性,干扰导致的林隙是森林循环的起点．回顾了目前演替研究的几种方法,即马尔科夫模型、林窗模型(GAP)、陆地生物圈模型(BIOME)和非线性演替模式．介绍了气候变化对森林演替的影响;并在已有成果的基础上,提出了目前研究存在的问题及未来的发展方向．     

Evidence for declining forest resilience to wildfires under climate change

Forest resilience to climate change is a global concern given the potential effects of increased disturbance activity, warming temperatures and increased moisture stress on plants. We used a multi‐regional dataset of 1485 sites across 52 wildfires from the US Rocky Mountains to ask if and how changing climate over the last several decades impacted post‐fire tree regeneration, a key indicator of forest resilience. Results highlight significant decreases in tree regeneration in the 21st century. Annual moisture deficits were significantly greater from 2000 to 2015 as compared to 1985–1999, suggesting increasingly unfavourable post‐fire growing conditions, corresponding to significantly lower seedling densities and increased regeneration failure. Dry forests that already occur at the edge of their climatic tolerance are most prone to conversion to non‐forests after wildfires. Major climate‐induced reduction in forest density and extent has important consequences for a myriad of ecosystem services now and in the future.     

A century of fish growth in relation to climate change,population dynamics and exploitation

Marine ecosystems, particularly in high‐latitude regions such as the Arctic, have been significantly affected by human activities and contributions to climate change. Evaluating how fish populations responded to past changes in their environment is helpful for evaluating their future patterns, but is often hindered by the lack of long‐term biological data available. Using otolith increments of Northeast Arctic cod (Gadus morhua) as a proxy for individual growth, we developed a century‐scale biochronology (1924–2014) based on the measurements of 3,894 fish, which revealed significant variations in cod growth over the last 91 years. We combined mixed‐effect modeling and path analysis to relate these growth variations to selected climate, population and fishing‐related factors. Cod growth was negatively related to cod population size and positively related to capelin population size, one of the most important prey items. This suggests that density‐dependent effects are the main source of growth variability due to competition for resources and cannibalism. Growth was also positively correlated with warming sea temperatures but negatively correlated with the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, suggesting contrasting effects of climate warming at different spatial scales. Fishing pressure had a significant but weak negative direct impact on growth. Additionally, path analysis revealed that the selected growth factors were interrelated. Capelin biomass was positively related to sea temperature and negatively influenced by herring biomass, while cod biomass was mainly driven by fishing mortality. Together, these results give a better understanding of how multiple interacting factors have shaped cod growth throughout a century, both directly and indirectly.     

Response of poikilotherms to thermal aspects of climate change

Climate change will lead to changes in both the mean and variability of a number of different climatic variables. Temperature is one of these. Poikilotherms are organisms whose development rate at each life stage is dictated by temperature, and so we anticipate that climate change will have strong effects on the dynamics of these organisms. In this paper, we use a mathematical model for development that explicitly includes temperature dependence to investigate the effect of four different types of thermal perturbations: (1) increased mean annual temperature, increased swings in (2) annual and (3) daily temperatures, and (4) extreme temperature events. We investigate these effects in the context of three different poikilotherms, two biocontrol agents (Neoseiulus californicus and Mecinus janthiniformis) and a native forest pest (the mountain pine beetle, Dendroctonus ponderosae). We find that the three organisms respond very differently to the thermal perturbations, indicating that the impact of climate change on poikilotherms is not straightforward and potentially highly complex.     

Phenological responses of plants to climate change in an urban environment

Global climate change is likely to alter the phenological patterns of plants due to the controlling effects of climate on plant ontogeny, especially in an urbanized environment. We studied relationships between various phenophases (i.e., seasonal biological events) and interannual variations of air temperature in three woody plant species (Prunus davidiana, Hibiscus syriacus, and Cercis chinensis) in the Beijing Metropolis, China, based on phenological data for the period 1962–2004 and meteorological data for the period 1951–2004. Analysis of phenology and climate data indicated significant changes in spring and autumn phenophases and temperatures. Changes in phenophases were observed for all the three species, consistent with patterns of rising air temperatures in the Beijing Metropolis. The changing phenology in the three plant species was reflected mainly as advances of the spring phenophases and delays in the autumn phenophases, but with strong variations among species and phenophases in response to different temperature indices. Most phenophases (both spring and autumn phenophases) had significant relationships with temperatures of the preceding months. There existed large inter- and intra-specific variations, however, in the responses of phenology to climate change. It is clear that the urban heat island effect from 1978 onwards is a dominant cause of the observed phenological changes. Differences in phenological responses to climate change may cause uncertain ecological consequences, with implications for ecosystem stability and function in urban environments.     

Threats to mangroves from climate change and adaptation options: A review

Mangrove ecosystems are threatened by climate change. We review the state of knowledge of mangrove vulnerability and responses to predicted climate change and consider adaptation options. Based on available evidence, of all the climate change outcomes, relative sea-level rise may be the greatest threat to mangroves. Most mangrove sediment surface elevations are not keeping pace with sea-level rise, although longer term studies from a larger number of regions are needed. Rising sea-level will have the greatest impact on mangroves experiencing net lowering in sediment elevation, where there is limited area for landward migration. The Pacific Islands mangroves have been demonstrated to be at high risk of substantial reductions. There is less certainty over other climate change outcomes and mangrove responses. More research is needed on assessment methods and standard indicators of change in response to effects from climate change, while regional monitoring networks are needed to observe these responses to enable educated adaptation. Adaptation measures can offset anticipated mangrove losses and improve resistance and resilience to climate change. Coastal planning can adapt to facilitate mangrove migration with sea-level rise. Management of activities within the catchment that affect long-term trends in the mangrove sediment elevation, better management of other stressors on mangroves, rehabilitation of degraded mangrove areas, and increases in systems of strategically designed protected area networks that include mangroves and functionally linked ecosystems through representation, replication and refugia, are additional adaptation options.     

Phenology and North Sea cod Gadus morhua L.: has climate change affected otolith annulus formation and growth?

Timing and rate of seasonal zone formation in southern North Sea cod Gadus morhua otoliths was studied. Samples were taken from two time periods, representing low and high temperature regimes. Opaque zones were laid down between January and June, in contrast with the pattern described in other published studies. Translucent zone formation started earlier in the warmer period, corresponding to peak annual sea surface temperatures, and a period of slow body growth and low metabolic activity. Translucent zone formation, however, continued once temperatures decreased and growth rate increased. It is hypothesized that translucent zone formation is triggered at a threshold of metabolic stress, and that the combined energetic requirements of reproduction, growth and migration may maintain translucent zone formation even if feeding conditions improve. Higher temperatures had a significant negative effect on the rate of translucent zone deposition, but caused a slight increase in opaque zone formation rate. The findings of this study indicate that historical otolith collections could provide key inputs into future phenological studies to improve the understanding of climate change impacts and the dynamics of otolith structure.     

Metabolic adjustment of Pyrrhulina aff. brevis exposed to different climate change scenarios

The increases in CO₂ concentrations and, consequently, temperature due to climate change are predicted to intensify. Understanding the physiological responses of Pyrrhulina aff. brevis to the climatic scenarios proposed by the IPCC (2014) for the next 100 years is of fundamental importance to determine its susceptibility. Thus, the present study aimed to evaluate the effects of the predicted climatic scenarios for the year 2100 on the metabolic adjustments of P. aff. brevis . Specifically, the rate of oxygen uptake, electron transport system capacity, glycogen and lactate content and the role of Na⁺K⁺-ATPases and H⁺-ATPase were evaluated. P. aff. brevis individuals were exposed for 15 days to the simulated climatic scenarios in climate scenario rooms, where temperature and CO₂ in the air were controlled. Two rooms were used to simulate the climatic scenarios predicted by the IPCC (2014): moderate (RCP 6; 2.5 °C and 400 μatm CO₂ above current levels) and extreme (RCP 8.5; 4.5 °C and 900 μatm CO₂ above current levels), in addition to the "control room" that represents the current scenario. There was an increase in the metabolic rate (MO₂) in the animals acclimated to the climate change scenarios (RCP 6 and RCP 8.5) compared to the current scenario. These responses showed a typical effect of temperature on energy demand in relation to the increase in temperature and CO₂. Our data showed an increase in O₂ consumption (MO₂), lactate levels and H⁺-ATPase activity of the animals acclimated to the moderate and extreme climate change scenarios. Such adjustments presented a clear metabolic imbalance, an alteration that may imply challenges for survival, growth, distribution and reproduction in the face of the expected environmental changes for the year 2100.     

Dispersal response to climate change: scaling down to intraspecific variation

Range shift, a widespread response to climate change, will depend on species abilities to withstand warmer climates. However, these abilities may vary within species and such intraspecific variation can strongly impact species responses to climate change. Facing warmer climates, individuals should disperse according to their thermal optimum with consequences for species range shifts. Here, we studied individual dispersal of a reptile in response to climate warming and preferred temperature using a semi‐natural warming experiment. Individuals with low preferred temperatures dispersed more from warmer semi‐natural habitats, whereas individuals with higher preferred temperatures dispersed more from cooler habitats. These dispersal decisions partly matched phenotype‐dependent survival rates in the different thermal habitats, suggesting adaptive dispersal decisions. This process should result into a spatial segregation of thermal phenotypes along species moving ranges which should facilitate local adaptation to warming climates. We therefore call for range shift models including intraspecific variation in thermal phenotype and dispersal decision.     

Potential impacts of global climate change on freshwater fisheries

Despite uncertainty in all levels of analysis, recent and long-term changes in our climate point to the distinct possibility that greenhouse gas emissions have altered mean annual temperatures, precipitation and weather patterns. Modeling efforts that use doubled atmospheric CO₂ scenarios predict a 1–7°C mean global temperature increase, regional changes in precipitation patterns and storm tracks, and the possibility of “surprises” or sudden irreversible regime shifts. The general effects of climate change on freshwater systems will likely be increased water temperatures, decreased dissolved oxygen levels, and the increased toxicity of pollutants. In lotic systems, altered hydrologic regimes and increased groundwater temperatures could affect the quality of fish habitat. In lentic systems, eutrophication may be exacerbated or offset, and stratification will likely become more pronounced and stronger. This could alter food webs and change habitat availability and quality. Fish physiology is inextricably linked to temperature, and fish have evolved to cope with specific hydrologic regimes and habitat niches. Therefore, their physiology and life histories will be affected by alterations induced by climate change. Fish communities may change as range shifts will likely occur on a species level, not a community level; this will add novel biotic pressures to aquatic communities. Genetic change is also possible and is the only biological option for fish that are unable to migrate or acclimate. Endemic species, species in fragmented habitats, or those in east–west oriented systems will be less able to follow changing thermal isolines over time. Artisanal, commercial, and recreational fisheries worldwide depend upon freshwater fishes. Impacted fisheries may make it difficult for developing countries to meet their food demand, and developed countries may experience economic losses. As it strengthens over time, global climate change will become a more powerful stressor for fish living in natural or artificial systems. Furthermore, human response to climate change (e.g., increased water diversion) will exacerbate its already-detrimental effects. Model predictions indicate that global climate change will continue even if greenhouse gas emissions decrease or cease. Therefore, proactive management strategies such as removing other stressors from natural systems will be necessary to sustain our freshwater fisheries.     

Cellular responses of encapsulated gastropod embryos to multiple stressors associated with climate change

As a consequence of global warming, environmental conditions such as temperature and salinity are likely to change in near-shore waters. Early life history phases are expected to be particularly vulnerable to changes in these abiotic variables. To evaluate the effect of multiple stressors on the responses of invertebrate larvae, to conditions anticipated under scenarios of climate change, we examined the cellular responses of embryos of three common rocky intertidal gastropod species to temperature and salinity changes. Encapsulated embryos of each species were exposed for 72 h to six combinations of ecologically realistic temperature and salinity levels (22° and 30 °C and 25, 35 and 45 ppt). Embryonic mortality and the responses of two biomarkers: total antioxidant capacity and lipid peroxidation, were then determined. We predicted that those organisms exposed to physiologically stressful levels of the combined stressors would show the strongest responses. The general trend was that both extremes of salinity (25 and 45 ppt) and high temperature (30 °C) negatively affected the embryos studied inducing oxidative stress and increasing lipid peroxidation, leading to increased embryonic mortality. The intensity of the response remained species-specific, with no clear pattern established as to which species was the most sensitive to salinity and temperature changes. Consequently, climate change induced temperature and salinity changes do exert molecular and physiological effects on early life stages of rocky shore gastropods, however, response to these stressors is species-specific.     

迁地保育植物花期物候对迁入地气候变化的响应

以中国科学院武汉植物园内栽培的长果秤锤树(Sinojackia dolichocarpa C. J. Qi)、山白树(Sinowilsonia henryi Hemsl.)、夏腊梅(Sinocalycanthus chinensis Cheng et S. Y. Chang)、紫茎(Stewartia sinensis Rehd. et Wils.)和绒毛皂荚(Gleditsia vestita Chun et How ex B. G. Li) 5种迁地保育植物为对象,通过2008-2016年观察记录的初花期物候及整个花期长度的数据,研究花期的年际变化规律及其与迁入地武汉气候因子的相关性。结果显示:(1)从初花期来看,长果秤锤树的初花期每年提前1.25 d,紫茎的初花期每年推迟1.35 d,绒毛皂荚的初花期每年推迟1.22 d。(2)从花期长度来看,山白树的花期每年增加1.72 d,夏蜡梅的花期每年减少1.62 d,紫茎的花期每年增加0.32 d。(3)从花期与气候因子的相关性来看,年降水量、年平均相对湿度、 10℃有效积温、花前 10℃的有效积温是影响这5种植物初花期、花期长度的主要气候因子;不同物种间影响花期的主要气候因子有所差异。     

Leaf morphology shift linked to climate change

Climate change is driving adaptive shifts within species, but research on plants has been focused on phenology. Leaf morphology has demonstrated links with climate and varies within species along climate gradients. We predicted that, given within-species variation along a climate gradient, a morphological shift should have occurred over time due to climate change. We tested this prediction, taking advantage of latitudinal and altitudinal variations within the Adelaide Geosyncline region, South Australia, historical herbarium specimens (n = 255) and field sampling (n = 274). Leaf width in the study taxon, Dodonaea viscosa subsp. angustissima, was negatively correlated with latitude regionally, and leaf area was negatively correlated with altitude locally. Analysis of herbarium specimens revealed a 2 mm decrease in leaf width (total range 1-9 mm) over 127 years across the region. The results are consistent with a morphological response to contemporary climate change. We conclude that leaf width is linked to maximum temperature regionally (latitude gradient) and leaf area to minimum temperature locally (altitude gradient). These data indicate a morphological shift consistent with a direct response to climate change and could inform provenance selection for restoration with further investigation of the genetic basis and adaptive significance of observed variation.     

Local extent of old-growth woodland modifies epiphyte response to climate change

Aim To quantify the interaction between climate and woodland continuity in determining the bioclimatic response of lichen epiphytes. Location Northern Britain (Scotland). Methods Indicator‐species analysis was used to pre‐select lichen epiphytes along parallel gradients in climate and the extent of old‐growth woodland. Nonparametric multiplicative regression was used to describe in a predictive model the individualistic response of selected species, which were projected based on climate‐change scenarios and contrasting patterns of simulated woodland loss or gain. Species with a similar response were grouped using a novel application of cluster analysis to summarize the potentially huge number of projected outcomes. Projected patterns of occurrence under climate‐change scenarios were examined for different levels of old‐growth woodland extent. Results Forty‐two lichen species were statistically significant indicator species in oceanic woodlands, and old‐growth indicators under suboptimal climatic conditions. Responses to climate‐change scenarios were contrasting, with one group comprising species projected to increase in extent in response to climate warming, and other response groups projected to decrease in occurrence, possibly in response to shifting rainfall patterns. The occurrence of all response groups had a positive relationship with old‐growth woodland extent. Main conclusions An ‘oceanic’ biogeographical group of epiphytes identified using the baseline climatic and present‐day woodland setting comprised species with a cyanobacterial photobiont or tropical phytogeographical affinities. However, within this group the individual species responses to climate‐change scenarios were contrasting. Additionally, group responses may be poorly matched with simple ecological traits. However, the studied interaction between climate and habitat continuity suggests that the impact of climate change might be offset for certain lichen epiphytes by appropriate management of woodland resources, for example, expansion of native woodland around remnant old‐growth stands.     

Possible impacts of climate change on natural vegetation in Saxony (Germany)

Recent climate changes have had distinct impacts on plant development in many parts of the world. Higher air temperatures, mainly since the end of the 1980s, have led to advanced timing of phenological phases and consequently to an extension of the general growing season. For this reason it is interesting to know how plants will respond to future climate change. In this study simple phenological models have been developed to estimate the impact of climate change on the natural vegetation in Saxony. The estimations are based on a regional climate scenario for the state of Saxony. The results indicate that changes in the timing of phenophases could continue in the future. Due to distinct temperature changes in winter and in summer, mainly the spring and summer phases will be advanced. Spring phenophases, such as leafing or flowering, show the strongest trends. Depending on the species, the average timing of these phenophases could be advanced by 3–27 days by 2050. Phenophases in autumn show relatively small changes. Thus, the annual growth period of individual trees will be further extended, mainly because of the shift of spring phases. Frequent droughts in summer and in autumn can compensate for the earlier leafing of trees, because in this case leaf colouring and leaf fall would start some weeks earlier. In such cases, the growing period would not be really extended, but shifted to the beginning of the year.