Mortality Patterns and Site Heterogeneity of Severe Malaria in African Children

Background

In this study we aimed to assess site heterogeneity of early, intermediate, and late mortality prediction in children with severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

Medical records of 26,036 children admitted with severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria in six hospital research centers between December 2000 to May 2005 were analyzed. Demographic, clinical and laboratory data of children who died within 24 hours (early), between 24 and 47 hours (intermediate) and thereafter (48 hours or later, late mortality) were compared between groups and survivors.

Results

Overall mortality was 4·3% (N = 1,129). Median time to death varied across sites (P<0·001), ranging from 8h (3h–52h) in Lambaréné to 40h (10h–100h) in Kilifi. Fifty-eight percent of deaths occurred within 24 hours and intermediate and late mortality rate were 19% and 23%, respectively. Combining all sites, deep breathing, prostration and hypoglycemia were independent predictors for early, intermediate and late mortality (P<0·01). Site specific independent predictors for early death included prostration, coma and deep breathing at all sites (P<0·001). Site specific independent predictors for intermediate and late death largely varied between sites (P<0·001) and included between 1 and 7 different clinical and laboratory variables.

Conclusion

Site heterogeneity for mortality prediction is evident in African children with severe malaria. Prediction for early mortality has the highest consistency between sites.     

Complex Genetic Effects on Early Vegetative Development Shape Resource Allocation Differences Between Arabidopsis lyrata Populations

Costs of reproduction due to resource allocation trade-offs have long been recognized as key forces in life history evolution, but little is known about their functional or genetic basis. Arabidopsis lyrata, a perennial relative of the annual model plant A. thaliana with a wide climatic distribution, has populations that are strongly diverged in resource allocation. In this study, we evaluated the genetic and functional basis for variation in resource allocation in a reciprocal transplant experiment, using four A. lyrata populations and F₂ progeny from a cross between North Carolina (NC) and Norway parents, which had the most divergent resource allocation patterns. Local alleles at quantitative trait loci (QTL) at a North Carolina field site increased reproductive output while reducing vegetative growth. These QTL had little overlap with flowering date QTL. Structural equation models incorporating QTL genotypes and traits indicated that resource allocation differences result primarily from QTL effects on early vegetative growth patterns, with cascading effects on later vegetative and reproductive development. At a Norway field site, North Carolina alleles at some of the same QTL regions reduced survival and reproductive output components, but these effects were not associated with resource allocation trade-offs in the Norway environment. Our results indicate that resource allocation in perennial plants may involve important adaptive mechanisms largely independent of flowering time. Moreover, the contributions of resource allocation QTL to local adaptation appear to result from their effects on developmental timing and its interaction with environmental constraints, and not from simple models of reproductive costs.     

Generalised Extreme Value Distributions Provide a Natural Hypothesis for the Shape of Seed Mass Distributions

Among co-occurring species, values for functionally important plant traits span orders of magnitude, are uni-modal, and generally positively skewed. Such data are usually log-transformed “for normality” but no convincing mechanistic explanation for a log-normal expectation exists. Here we propose a hypothesis for the distribution of seed masses based on generalised extreme value distributions (GEVs), a class of probability distributions used in climatology to characterise the impact of event magnitudes and frequencies; events that impose strong directional selection on biological traits. In tests involving datasets from 34 locations across the globe, GEVs described log10 seed mass distributions as well or better than conventional normalising statistics in 79% of cases, and revealed a systematic tendency for an overabundance of small seed sizes associated with low latitudes. GEVs characterise disturbance events experienced in a location to which individual species’ life histories could respond, providing a natural, biological explanation for trait expression that is lacking from all previous hypotheses attempting to describe trait distributions in multispecies assemblages. We suggest that GEVs could provide a mechanistic explanation for plant trait distributions and potentially link biology and climatology under a single paradigm.     

Patterns in the Evolution of Ungulate Jaw Shape

A survey of biomechanically significant aspects of the jaw apparatusin 13 orders of recent and fossil ungulates indicates that anexpanded angular process evolved independently at least 12 times.Temporal fossa size is reduced inmost ungulatesof modern aspect,but not in many early ungulates. Expansion of the masseter andinternal pterygoid musculature (inferred from the expanded angularprocess) may represent an adaptation for enhanced control ofgrinding action in mastication.     

Coevolution of Quantum and Classical Strategies on Evolving Random Networks

We study the coevolution of quantum and classical strategies on weighted and directed random networks in the realm of the prisoner’s dilemma game. During the evolution, agents can break and rewire their links with the aim of maximizing payoffs, and they can also adjust the weights to indicate preferences, either positive or negative, towards their neighbors. The network structure itself is thus also subject to evolution. Importantly, the directionality of links does not affect the accumulation of payoffs nor the strategy transfers, but serves only to designate the owner of each particular link and with it the right to adjust the link as needed. We show that quantum strategies outperform classical strategies, and that the critical temptation to defect at which cooperative behavior can be maintained rises, if the network structure is updated frequently. Punishing neighbors by reducing the weights of their links also plays an important role in maintaining cooperation under adverse conditions. We find that the self-organization of the initially random network structure, driven by the evolutionary competition between quantum and classical strategies, leads to the spontaneous emergence of small average path length and a large clustering coefficient.     

Local Breast Cancer Spatial Patterning: A Tool for Community Health Resource Allocation to Address Local Disparities in Breast Cancer Mortality

Despite available demographic data on the factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality in large population datasets, local patterns are often overlooked. Such local information could provide a valuable metric by which regional community health resources can be allocated to reduce breast cancer mortality. We used national and statewide datasets to assess geographical distribution of breast cancer mortality rates and known risk factors influencing breast cancer mortality in middle Tennessee. Each county in middle Tennessee, and each ZIP code within metropolitan Davidson County, was scored for risk factor prevalence and assigned quartile scores that were used as a metric to identify geographic areas of need. While breast cancer mortality often correlated with age and incidence, geographic areas were identified in which breast cancer mortality rates did not correlate with age and incidence, but correlated with additional risk factors, such as mammography screening and socioeconomic status. Geographical variability in specific risk factors was evident, demonstrating the utility of this approach to identify local areas of risk. This method revealed local patterns in breast cancer mortality that might otherwise be overlooked in a more broadly based analysis. Our data suggest that understanding the geographic distribution of breast cancer mortality, and the distribution of risk factors that contribute to breast cancer mortality, will not only identify communities with the greatest need of support, but will identify the types of resources that would provide the most benefit to reduce breast cancer mortality in the community.     

A Maximum Likelihood Estimator for Shape Parameters of S‐Distributions

The S‐distribution is a four‐parameter distribution that is defined in terms of a differential equation, in which the cumulative is represented as the dependent variable: The article proposes a maximum likelihood estimator for the shape parameters of this distribution.     

Evolution of the Selfing Rate and Resource Allocation Models

Abstract First, evolutionary theories of selfing of terrestrial plants are reviewed briefly. The evolution of the selfing rate is controlled mainly by (1) the benefit of enhanced genetic relatedness to seeds and (2) the cost of lowered fitness of selfed offspring (inbreeding depression), being modified by (3) fertility assurance under pollen limitation, (4) reduced performance as pollen donor, (5) reduced expenditure to male function, and (6) lowered genetic recombination. Models of the joint evolution of selfing and inbreeding depression predict either strong outcrossing or predominant selfing. Although wind-pollinated plants fit the prediction, some animal-pollinated species have intermediate selfing rates, refuting the theory.
Second, three resource allocation models are analyzed, in which an individual plant optimally allocates limited resources to outcrossed seeds, selfed seeds, and to energy reserves for the next year. The first model explains how the number of outcrossed and selfed offspring change with plant size when they differ in dispersal distance. The second model predicts that, in a disturbed habitat, the plant is likely to be annual and to produce both selfed and outcrossed seeds; in contrast, in a stable habitat, the plant tends to be perennial and to abort selfed seeds selectively. Hand pollination may increase seed production for perennials but not for annuals. The third model explains the observed difference between animal and wind pollinated plants in the out-crossing rate pattern by the difference in the way pollen acquisition increases with investment.     

Compositional Heterogeneity and Patterns of Molecular Evolution in the Drosophila Genome

The rates and patterns of molecular evolution in many eukaryotic organisms have been shown to be influenced by the compartmentalization of their genomes into fractions of distinct base composition and mutational properties. We have examined the Drosophila genome to explore relationships between the nucleotide content of large chromosomal segments and the base composition and rate of evolution of genes within those segments. Direct determination of the G + C contents of yeast artificial chromosome clones containing inserts of Drosophila melanogaster DNA ranging from 140-340 kb revealed significant heterogeneity in base composition. The G + C content of the large segments studied ranged from 36.9% G + C for a clone containing the hunchback locus in polytene region 85, to 50.9% G + C for a clone that includes the rosy region in polytene region 87. Unlike other organisms, however, there was no significant correlation between the base composition of large chromosomal regions and the base composition at fourfold degenerate nucleotide sites of genes encompassed within those regions. Despite the situation seen in mammals, there was also no significant association between base composition and rate of nucleotide substitution. These results suggest that nucleotide sequence evolution in Drosophila differs from that of many vertebrates and does not reflect distinct mutational biases, as a function of base composition, in different genomic regions. Significant negative correlations between codon-usage bias and rates of synonymous site divergence, however, provide strong support for an argument that selection among alternative codons may be a major contributor to variability in evolutionary rates within Drosophila genomes.     

Heterogeneity in Individual Mortality Risk and Its Importance for Evolutionary Studies of Senescence

Mortality was simulated under the assumption of heterogeneity in individual age-specific mortality risk. Heterogeneity was modeled by assigning each individual its own Gompertz mortality function. Means and variances of the Gompertz intercept and slope parameters were based on published data for Drosophila melanogaster. Simulations of large cohorts reproduced mortality plateaus similar to those observed for actual cohorts of flies. Catastrophic late-age mortality was not observed except when heterogeneity was very low and rates of senescence were very high. A second set of simulations was designed to mimic experiments that have investigated age-specific patterns of genetic variance in mortality rates. Within-genotype heterogeneity in mortality risk resulted in a decline in genetic variance of mortality rates at old ages. That result suggests that the decline in genetic variance at old ages that has been observed in some experiments is an artifact of heterogeneity. Mortality rate plateaus, decrease in genetic variance of mortality rates at old ages, and absence of catastrophic late-age mortality all appear to contradict predictions of the evolutionary theory of senescence. Heterogeneity in mortality risk may explain those contradictions.     

Competition and the Effect of Spatial Resource Heterogeneity on Evolutionary Diversification

A model is presented to explore how the form of selection arising from competition for resources is affected by spatial resource heterogeneity. The model consists of a single species occupying two patches connected by migration, where the two patches can differ in the type of resources that they contain. The main goal is to determine the conditions under which competition for resources results in disruptive selection (i.e., selection favoring a polymorphism) since it is this form of selection that will give rise to the evolutionary diversification of resource exploitation strategies. In particular, comparing the conditions giving rise to disruptive selection when the two patches are identical to the conditions when they contain different resources reveals the effect of spatial resource heterogeneity. Results show that when the patches are identical, the conditions giving rise to disruptive selection are identical to those that give rise to character displacement in previous models. When the patches are different, the conditions giving rise to disruptive selection can be either more or less stringent depending upon demographic parameters such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the migration rate. Surprisingly, spatial resource heterogeneity can actually make forms of evolutionary diversification such as character displacement less likely. It is also found that results are dependent on how the resource exploitation strategies and the spatial resource heterogeneity affect the population dynamics. One robust conclusion however, is that spatial resource heterogeneity always has a disruptive effect when the migration rate between patches is low.     

Genomewide Patterns of Substitution in Adaptively Evolving Populations of the RNA Bacteriophage MS2

Experimental evolution of bacteriophage provides a powerful means of studying the genetics of adaptation, as every substitution contributing to adaptation can be identified and characterized. Here, I use experimental evolution of MS2, an RNA bacteriophage, to study its adaptive response to a novel environment. To this end, three lines of MS2 were adapted to rapid growth and lysis at cold temperature for a minimum of 50 phage generations and subjected to whole-genome sequencing. Using this system, I identified adaptive substitutions, monitored changes in frequency of adaptive mutations through the course of the experiment, and measured the effect on phage growth rate of each substitution. All three lines showed a substantial increase in fitness (a two- to threefold increase in growth rate) due to a modest number of substitutions (three to four). The data show some evidence that the substitutions occurring early in the experiment have larger beneficial effects than later ones, in accordance with the expected diminishing returns relationship between the fitness effects of a mutation and its order of substitution. Patterns of molecular evolution seen here—primarily a paucity of hitchhiking mutations—suggest an abundant supply of beneficial mutations in this system. Nevertheless, some beneficial mutations appear to have been lost, possibly due to accumulation of beneficial mutations on other genetic backgrounds, clonal interference, and negatively epistatic interactions with other beneficial mutations.     

How Fluorescent Tags Modify Oligomer Size Distributions of the Alzheimer Peptide

Within the complex aggregation process of amyloidogenic peptides into fibrils, early stages of aggregation play a central role and reveal fundamental properties of the underlying mechanism of aggregation. In particular, low-molecular-weight aggregates of the Alzheimer amyloid-β peptide (Aβ) have attracted increasing interest because of their role in cytotoxicity and neuronal apoptosis, typical of aggregation-related diseases. One of the main techniques used to characterize oligomeric stages is fluorescence spectroscopy. To this end, Aβ peptide chains are functionalized with fluorescent tags, often covalently bound to the disordered N-terminus region of the peptide, with the assumption that functionalization and presence of the fluorophore will not modify the process of self-assembly nor the final fibrillar structure. In this investigation, we systematically study the effects of four of the most commonly used fluorophores on the aggregation of Aβ (1–40). Time-resolved and single-molecule fluorescence spectroscopy have been chosen to monitor the oligomer populations at different fibrillation times, and transmission electron microscopy, atomic force microscopy and x-ray diffraction to investigate the structure of mature fibrils. Although the structures of the fibrils were only slightly affected by the fluorescent tags, the sizes of the detected oligomeric species varied significantly depending on the chosen fluorophore. In particular, we relate the presence of high-molecular-weight oligomers of Aβ (1–40) (as found for the fluorophores HiLyte 647 and Atto 655) to net-attractive, hydrophobic fluorophore-peptide interactions, which are weak in the case of HiLyte 488 and Atto 488. The latter leads for Aβ (1–40) to low-molecular-weight oligomers only, which is in contrast to Aβ (1–42). The disease-relevant peptide Aβ (1–42) displays high-molecular-weight oligomers even in the absence of significant attractive fluorophore-peptide interactions. Hence, our findings reveal the potentially high impact of the properties of fluorophores on transient aggregates, which needs to be included in the interpretation of experimental data of oligomers of fluorescently labeled peptides.     

Environmental Predictors of US County Mortality Patterns on a National Basis

A growing body of evidence has found that mortality rates are positively correlated with social inequalities, air pollution, elevated ambient temperature, availability of medical care and other factors. This study develops a model to predict the mortality rates for different diseases by county across the US. The model is applied to predict changes in mortality caused by changing environmental factors. A total of 3,110 counties in the US, excluding Alaska and Hawaii, were studied. A subset of 519 counties from the 3,110 counties was chosen by using systematic random sampling and these samples were used to validate the model. Step-wise and linear regression analyses were used to estimate the ability of environmental pollutants, socio-economic factors and other factors to explain variations in county-specific mortality rates for cardiovascular diseases, cancers, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), all causes combined and lifespan across five population density groups. The estimated models fit adequately for all mortality outcomes for all population density groups and, adequately predicted risks for the 519 validation counties. This study suggests that, at local county levels, average ozone (0.07 ppm) is the most important environmental predictor of mortality. The analysis also illustrates the complex inter-relationships of multiple factors that influence mortality and lifespan, and suggests the need for a better understanding of the pathways through which these factors, mortality, and lifespan are related at the community level.     

资源异质性环境中三种匍匐茎草本植物克隆内资源共享和分株功能特化(英文)

研究了 3种来自中国北方林下、草地和碱化草甸匍匐茎型克隆草本植物绢毛匍匐委陵菜 (PotentillareptansL .var.sericophyllaFranch .)、鹅绒委陵菜 (P .anserinaL .)和金戴戴 (Halerpestesruthenica (Jacq .)Qvcz .)对由高光照低养分斑块和低光照高养分斑块组成的资源交互斑块性生境的适应性对策。当生长于高光照低养分条件下分株(HL分株 )与生长于低光照高养分条件下分株 (LH分株 )之间的匍匐茎连接时 ,3种克隆植物HL分株、LH分株以及整个分株对系统 (HL分株 LH分株 )的生物量均得到显著提高。同时 ,LH分株根冠比显著增加 ,而HL分株根冠比显著下降。这表明 ,当互连分株置于由低光照高养分斑块和高光照低养分斑块组成的异质性环境中时 ,3种植物克隆分株均发生了环境诱导的功能特化。克隆内资源共享以及克隆内不同分株的功能特化有利于整个分株系统对局部丰富资源的获取 ,从而能够缓解资源交互斑块性生境对克隆植物的不利影响     

人口老龄化对卫生资源配置的影响研究

为探索人口老龄化对卫生资源配置的影响,本文在整群抽样调查法获取相关资料的基础上,运用卫生服务需求法测算出老年人群对床位配置、卫生人力的需求量。结果发现在2030年青岛市老年人口所占比重达到31.89%,因老年人口增加导致的床位配置、卫生人力的增加量分别为:2219、3093。面对巨大的老年医疗需求群体如何更合理的配置卫生资源,本文提出了相关的建议。     

浙江舟山五峙山列岛夏季繁殖水鸟资源及其分布动态

1989～2007年,对浙江舟山五峙山列岛自然保护区繁殖水鸟进行调查和监测,记录繁殖水鸟的种类、数量、分布及其繁殖生态。在五峙山列岛繁殖的水鸟主要有黑尾鸥Larus crassirostris、黄嘴白鹭Egretta eulophotes、小白鹭E.garzetta、中白鹭Mesophoyx intermedia、大凤头燕鸥Sterna bergii、黑枕燕鸥S.sumatrana和蛎鹬Haematopus ostralegus等7种。自1988年保护区建立以来,尤其是近年来,五峙山列岛繁殖水鸟的种类和珍稀鸟类黄嘴白鹭的繁殖数量呈上升趋势,其中黄嘴白鹭和大凤头燕鸥大繁殖群的出现大大提高了保护区的保护价值,不同年份间鸟类总体数量保持相对稳定。五峙山列岛繁殖水鸟的资源和分布动态呈现两个值得关注的现象:一方面,由于繁殖资源限制,繁殖种类间存在竞争替换;另一方面,不同繁殖年间繁殖水鸟在不同岛屿的分布数量存在较大的波动。其内在的影响因素值得进一步探讨,这对有针对性地制订保护和管理对策,降低黄嘴白鹭的竞争压力,最大限度地提高保护区繁殖水鸟的多样性具有重要价值。