Health and economic benefits of achieving hepatitis C virus elimination in Pakistan: A modelling study and economic analysis

BackgroundModelling suggests that achieving the WHO incidence target for hepatitis C virus (HCV) elimination in Pakistan could cost US$3.87 billion over 2018 to 2030. However, the economic benefits from integrating services or improving productivity were not included.Methods and findingsWe adapt a HCV transmission model for Pakistan to estimate the impact, costs, and cost-effectiveness of achieving HCV elimination (reducing annual HCV incidence by 80% by 2030) with stand-alone service delivery, or partially integrating one-third of initial HCV testing into existing healthcare services. We estimate the net economic benefits by comparing the required investment in screening, treatment, and healthcare management to the economic productivity gains from reduced HCV-attributable absenteeism, presenteeism, and premature deaths. We also calculate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted for HCV elimination versus maintaining current levels of HCV treatment. This is compared to an opportunity cost-based willingness-to-pay threshold for Pakistan (US$148 to US$198/DALY).Compared to existing levels of treatment, scaling up screening and treatment to achieve HCV elimination in Pakistan averts 5.57 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.80 to 8.22) million DALYs and 333,000 (219,000 to 509,000) HCV-related deaths over 2018 to 2030. If HCV testing is partially integrated, this scale-up requires an investment of US$1.45 (1.32 to 1.60) billion but will result in US$1.30 (0.94 to 1.72) billion in improved economic productivity over 2018 to 2030. This elimination strategy is highly cost-effective (ICER = US$29 per DALY averted) by 2030, with it becoming cost-saving by 2031 and having a net economic benefit of US$9.10 (95% UI 6.54 to 11.99) billion by 2050. Limitations include uncertainty around what level of integration is possible within existing primary healthcare services as well as a lack of Pakistan-specific data on disease-related healthcare management costs or productivity losses due to HCV.ConclusionsInvestment in HCV elimination can bring about substantial societal health and economic benefits for Pakistan.

Aaron G Lim and colleagues model the health and economic benefits of eliminating hepatitis C in Pakistan.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Price Subsidies on Fortified Packaged Infant Cereals in Reducing Iron Deficiency Anemia in 6-23-Month-Old-Children in Urban India

IntroductionIron deficiency anaemia (IDA) is a major public health problem in India and especially harmful in early childhood due to its impact on cognitive development and increased all-cause mortality. We estimate the cost-effectiveness of price subsidies on fortified packaged infant cereals (F-PICs) in reducing IDA in 6-23-monthold children in urban India.ResultsThe lifetime social costs of IDA in 6-23-month-old children in large Indian cities amount to production losses of 3222 USD and to 726,000 DALYs. Poor households incur the highest costs, yet even wealthier households suffer substantial losses. The market survey reveals that few households currently buy F-PICs, with the share ranging from 14% to 36%. Wealthier households are generally more likely to buy FPICs. The costs of the subsidies per DALY averted range from 909 to 3649 USD. Interventions targeted at poorer households are most effective. Almost all interventions are cost saving from a societal perspective when taking into account the reduction of future production losses. Return per DALY averted ranges between gains of 1655 USD to a cost of 411 USD.ConclusionPrice subsidies on F-PICs are a cost-effective way to reduce the social costs of IDA in 6-23-month-old children in large Indian cities. Interventions targeting poorer households are especially cost-effective.     

Use of the Non-Pneumatic Anti-Shock Garment (NASG) for Life-Threatening Obstetric Hemorrhage: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis in Egypt and Nigeria

Objective

To assess the cost-effectiveness of a non-pneumatic anti-shock garment (NASG) for obstetric hemorrhage in tertiary hospitals in Egypt and Nigeria.

Methods

We combined published data from pre-intervention/NASG-intervention clinical trials with costs from study sites. For each country, we used observed proportions of initial shock level (mild: mean arterial pressure [MAP] >60 mmHg; severe: MAP ≤60 mmHg) to define a standard population of 1,000 women presenting in shock. We examined three intervention scenarios: no women in shock receive the NASG, only women in severe shock receive the NASG, and all women in shock receive the NASG. Clinical data included frequencies of adverse health outcomes (mortality, severe morbidity, severe anemia), and interventions to manage bleeding (uterotonics, blood transfusions, hysterectomies). Costs (in 2010 international dollars) included the NASG, training, and clinical interventions. We compared costs and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) across the intervention scenarios.

Results

For 1000 women presenting in shock, providing the NASG to those in severe shock results in decreased mortality and morbidity, which averts 357 DALYs in Egypt and 2,063 DALYs in Nigeria. Differences in use of interventions result in net savings of $9,489 in Egypt (primarily due to reduced transfusions) and net costs of $6,460 in Nigeria, with a cost per DALY averted of $3.13. Results of providing the NASG for women in mild shock has smaller and uncertain effects due to few clinical events in this data set.

Conclusion

Using the NASG for women in severe shock resulted in markedly improved health outcomes (2–2.9 DALYs averted per woman, primarily due to reduced mortality), with net savings or extremely low cost per DALY averted. This suggests that in resource-limited settings, the NASG is a very cost-effective intervention for women in severe hypovolemic shock. The effects of the NASG for mild shock are less certain.     

Integrated HIV testing, malaria, and diarrhea prevention campaign in Kenya: modeled health impact and cost-effectiveness

Background

Efficiently delivered interventions to reduce HIV, malaria, and diarrhea are essential to accelerating global health efforts. A 2008 community integrated prevention campaign in Western Province, Kenya, reached 47,000 individuals over 7 days, providing HIV testing and counseling, water filters, insecticide-treated bed nets, condoms, and for HIV-infected individuals cotrimoxazole prophylaxis and referral for ongoing care. We modeled the potential cost-effectiveness of a scaled-up integrated prevention campaign.

Methods

We estimated averted deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) based on published data on baseline mortality and morbidity and on the protective effect of interventions, including antiretroviral therapy. We incorporate a previously estimated scaled-up campaign cost. We used published costs of medical care to estimate savings from averted illness (for all three diseases) and the added costs of initiating treatment earlier in the course of HIV disease.

Results

Per 1000 participants, projected reductions in cases of diarrhea, malaria, and HIV infection avert an estimated 16.3 deaths, 359 DALYs and $85,113 in medical care costs. Earlier care for HIV-infected persons adds an estimated 82 DALYs averted (to a total of 442), at a cost of $37,097 (reducing total averted costs to $48,015). Accounting for the estimated campaign cost of $32,000, the campaign saves an estimated $16,015 per 1000 participants. In multivariate sensitivity analyses, 83% of simulations result in net savings, and 93% in a cost per DALY averted of less than $20.

Discussion

A mass, rapidly implemented campaign for HIV testing, safe water, and malaria control appears economically attractive.     

The Cost and Cost-Effectiveness of Scaling up Screening and Treatment of Syphilis in Pregnancy: A Model

Background

Syphilis in pregnancy imposes a significant global health and economic burden. More than half of cases result in serious adverse events, including infant mortality and infection. The annual global burden from mother-to-child transmission (MTCT) of syphilis is estimated at 3.6 million disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and $309 million in medical costs. Syphilis screening and treatment is simple, effective, and affordable, yet, worldwide, most pregnant women do not receive these services. We assessed cost-effectiveness of scaling-up syphilis screening and treatment in existing antenatal care (ANC) programs in various programmatic, epidemiologic, and economic contexts.

Methods and Findings

We modeled the cost, health impact, and cost-effectiveness of expanded syphilis screening and treatment in ANC, compared to current services, for 1,000,000 pregnancies per year over four years. We defined eight generic country scenarios by systematically varying three factors: current maternal syphilis testing and treatment coverage, syphilis prevalence in pregnant women, and the cost of healthcare. We calculated program and net costs, DALYs averted, and net costs per DALY averted over four years in each scenario. Program costs are estimated at $4,142,287 – $8,235,796 per million pregnant women (2010 USD). Net costs, adjusted for averted medical care and current services, range from net savings of $12,261,250 to net costs of $1,736,807. The program averts an estimated 5,754 – 93,484 DALYs, yielding net savings in four scenarios, and a cost per DALY averted of $24 – $111 in the four scenarios with net costs. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Eliminating MTCT of syphilis through expanded screening and treatment in ANC is likely to be highly cost-effective by WHO-defined thresholds in a wide range of settings. Countries with high prevalence, low current service coverage, and high healthcare cost would benefit most. Future analyses can be tailored to countries using local epidemiologic and programmatic data.     

Determinants of the cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants and children

Background

Trials of intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) and children (IPTc) have shown promising results in reducing malaria episodes but with varying efficacy and cost-effectiveness. The effects of different intervention and setting characteristics are not well known. We simulate the effects of the different target age groups and delivery channels, seasonal or year-round delivery, transmission intensity, seasonality, proportions of malaria fevers treated and drug characteristics.

Methods

We use a dynamic, individual-based simulation model of Plasmodium falciparum malaria epidemiology, antimalarial drug action and case management to simulate DALYs averted and the cost per DALY averted by IPTi and IPTc. IPT cost components were estimated from economic studies alongside trials.

Results

IPTi and IPTc were predicted to be cost-effective in most of the scenarios modelled. The cost-effectiveness is driven by the impact on DALYs, particularly for IPTc, and the low costs, particularly for IPTi which uses the existing delivery strategy, EPI. Cost-effectiveness was predicted to decrease with low transmission, badly timed seasonal delivery in a seasonal setting, short-acting and more expensive drugs, high frequencies of drug resistance and high levels of treatment of malaria fevers. Seasonal delivery was more cost-effective in seasonal settings, and year-round in constant transmission settings. The difference was more pronounced for IPTc than IPTi due to the different proportions of fixed costs and also different assumed drug spacing during the transmission season. The number of DALYs averted was predicted to decrease as a target five-year age-band for IPTc was shifted from children under 5 years into older ages, except at low transmission intensities.

Conclusions

Modelling can extend the information available by predicting impact and cost-effectiveness for scenarios, for outcomes and for multiple strategies where, for practical reasons, trials cannot be carried out. Both IPTi and IPTc are generally cost-effective but could be rendered cost-ineffective by characteristics of the setting, drug or implementation.     

Cost-Effectiveness of Breast Cancer Control Strategies in Central America: The Cases of Costa Rica and Mexico

This paper reports the most cost-effective policy options to support and improve breast cancer control in Costa Rica and Mexico. Total costs and effects of breast cancer interventions were estimated using the health care perspective and WHO-CHOICE methodology. Effects were measured in disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted. Costs were assessed in 2009 United States Dollars (US$). To the extent available, analyses were based on locally obtained data. In Costa Rica, the current strategy of treating breast cancer in stages I to IV at a 80% coverage level seems to be the most cost-effective with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$4,739 per DALY averted. At a coverage level of 95%, biennial clinical breast examination (CBE) screening could improve Costa Rica''s population health twofold, and can still be considered very cost-effective (ICER US$5,964/DALY). For Mexico, our results indicate that at 95% coverage a mass-media awareness raising program (MAR) could be the most cost-effective (ICER US$5,021/DALY). If more resources are available in Mexico, biennial mammography screening for women 50–70 yrs (ICER US$12,718/DALY), adding trastuzumab (ICER US$13,994/DALY) or screening women 40–70 yrs biennially plus trastuzumab (ICER US$17,115/DALY) are less cost-effective options. We recommend both Costa Rica and Mexico to engage in MAR, CBE or mammography screening programs, depending on their budget. The results of this study should be interpreted with caution however, as the evidence on the intervention effectiveness is uncertain. Also, these programs require several organizational, budgetary and human resources, and the accessibility of breast cancer diagnostic, referral, treatment and palliative care facilities should be improved simultaneously. A gradual implementation of early detection programs should give the respective Ministries of Health the time to negotiate the required budget, train the required human resources and understand possible socioeconomic barriers.     

Costs and cost-effectiveness of training traditional birth attendants to reduce neonatal mortality in the Lufwanyama Neonatal Survival study (LUNESP)

Background

The Lufwanyama Neonatal Survival Project (“LUNESP”) was a cluster randomized, controlled trial that showed that training traditional birth attendants (TBAs) to perform interventions targeting birth asphyxia, hypothermia, and neonatal sepsis reduced all-cause neonatal mortality by 45%. This companion analysis was undertaken to analyze intervention costs and cost-effectiveness, and factors that might improve cost-effectiveness.

Methods and Findings

We calculated LUNESP''s financial and economic costs and the economic cost of implementation for a forecasted ten-year program (2011–2020). In each case, we calculated the incremental cost per death avoided and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted in real 2011 US dollars. The forecasted 10-year program analysis included a base case as well as ‘conservative’ and ‘optimistic’ scenarios. Uncertainty was characterized using one-way sensitivity analyses and a multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. The estimated financial and economic costs of LUNESP were $118,574 and $127,756, respectively, or $49,469 and $53,550 per year. Fixed costs accounted for nearly 90% of total costs. For the 10-year program, discounted total and annual program costs were $256,455 and $26,834 respectively; for the base case, optimistic, and conservative scenarios, the estimated cost per death avoided was $1,866, $591, and $3,024, and cost per DALY averted was $74, $24, and $120, respectively. Outcomes were robust to variations in local costs, but sensitive to variations in intervention effect size, number of births attended by TBAs, and the extent of foreign consultants'' participation.

Conclusions

Based on established guidelines, the strategy of using trained TBAs to reduce neonatal mortality was ‘highly cost effective’. We strongly recommend consideration of this approach for other remote rural populations with limited access to health care.     

Cost-Effectiveness of “Golden Mustard” for Treating Vitamin A Deficiency in India

Background

Vitamin A deficiency (VAD) is an important nutritional problem in India, resulting in an increased risk of severe morbidity and mortality. Periodic, high-dose vitamin A supplementation is the WHO-recommended method to prevent VAD, since a single dose can compensate for reduced dietary intake or increased need over a period of several months. However, in India only 34 percent of targeted children currently receive the two doses per year, and new strategies are urgently needed.

Methodology

Recent advancements in biotechnology permit alternative strategies for increasing the vitamin A content of common foods. Mustard (Brassica juncea), which is consumed widely in the form of oil by VAD populations, can be genetically modified to express high levels of beta-carotene, a precursor to vitamin A. Using estimates for consumption, we compare predicted costs and benefits of genetically modified (GM) fortification of mustard seed with high-dose vitamin A supplementation and industrial fortification of mustard oil during processing to alleviate VAD by calculating the avertable health burden in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALY).

Principal Findings

We found that all three interventions potentially avert significant numbers of DALYs and deaths. Expanding vitamin A supplementation to all areas was the least costly intervention, at $23–$50 per DALY averted and $1,000–$6,100 per death averted, though cost-effectiveness varied with prevailing health subcenter coverage. GM fortification could avert 5 million–6 million more DALYs and 8,000–46,000 more deaths, mainly because it would benefit the entire population and not just children. However, the costs associated with GM fortification were nearly five times those of supplementation. Industrial fortification was dominated by both GM fortification and supplementation. The cost-effectiveness ratio of each intervention decreased with the prevalence of VAD and was sensitive to the efficacy rate of averted mortality.

Conclusions

Although supplementation is the least costly intervention, our findings also indicate that GM fortification could reduce the VAD disease burden to a substantially greater degree because of its wider reach. Given the difficulties in expanding supplementation to areas without health subcenters, GM fortification of mustard seed is an attractive alternative, and further exploration of this technology is warranted.     

Cost-effectiveness of opportunistic screening and minimal contact psychotherapy to prevent depression in primary care patients

Background

Depression causes a large burden of disease worldwide. Effective prevention has the potential to reduce that burden considerably. This study aimed to investigate the cost-effectiveness of minimal contact psychotherapy, based on Lewinsohn''s ‘Coping with depression’ course, targeted at opportunistically screened individuals with sub-threshold depression.

Methods and Results

Using a Markov model, future health effects and costs of an intervention scenario and a current practice scenario were estimated. The time horizon was five years. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were expressed in euro per Disability Adjusted Life Year (DALY) averted. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was employed to study the effect of uncertainty in the model parameters. From the health care perspective the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was € 1,400 per DALY, and from the societal perspective the intervention was cost-saving. Although the estimated incremental costs and effects were surrounded with large uncertainty, given a willingness to pay of € 20,000 per DALY, the probability that the intervention is cost-effective was around 80%.

Conclusion

This modelling study showed that opportunistic screening in primary care for sub-threshold depression in combination with minimal contact psychotherapy may be cost-effective in the prevention of major depression.     

A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of a Program to Control Rheumatic Fever and Rheumatic Heart Disease in Pinar del Rio,Cuba

Background

Acute rheumatic fever (ARF) and rheumatic heart disease (RHD) persist in many low- and middle-income countries. To date, the cost-effectiveness of population-based, combined primary and secondary prevention strategies has not been assessed. In the Pinar del Rio province of Cuba, a comprehensive ARF/RHD control program was undertaken over 1986 – 1996. The present study analyzes the cost-effectiveness of this Cuban program.

Methods and Findings

We developed a decision tree model based on the natural history of ARF/RHD, comparing the costs and effectiveness of the 10-year Cuban program to a “do nothing” approach. Our population of interest was the cohort of children aged 5 – 24 years resident in Pinar del Rio in 1986. We assessed costs and health outcomes over a lifetime horizon, and we took the healthcare system perspective on costs but did not apply a discount rate. We used epidemiologic, clinical, and direct medical cost inputs that were previously collected for publications on the Cuban program. We estimated health gains as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using standard approaches developed for the Global Burden of Disease studies. Cost-effectiveness acceptability thresholds were defined by one and three times per capita gross domestic product per DALY averted. We also conducted an uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo simulations and several scenario analyses exploring the impact of alternative assumptions about the program’s effects and costs. We found that, compared to doing nothing, the Cuban program averted 5051 DALYs (1844 per 100,000 school-aged children) and saved $7,848,590 (2010 USD) despite a total program cost of $202,890 over 10 years. In the scenario analyses, the program remained cost saving when a lower level of effectiveness and a reduction in averted years of life lost were assumed. In a worst-case scenario including 20-fold higher costs, the program still had a 100% of being cost-effective and an 85% chance of being cost saving.

Conclusions

A 10-year program to control ARF/RHD in Pinar del Rio, Cuba dramatically reduced morbidity and premature mortality in children and young adults and was cost saving. The results of our analysis were robust to higher program costs and more conservative assumptions about the program’s effectiveness. It is possible that the program’s effectiveness resulted from synergies between primary and secondary prevention strategies. The findings of this study have implications for non-communicable disease policymaking in other resource-limited settings.     

Antenatal Syphilis Screening Using Point-Of-Care Testing in Low- and Middle-Income Countries in Asia and Latin America: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis

BackgroundUntreated syphilis in pregnancy is associated with adverse clinical outcomes to the infant. In low- and middle-income countries in Asia and Latin America, 20%-30% of women are not tested for syphilis during pregnancy. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of increasing the coverage for antenatal syphilis screening in 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries, using a point-of-care immunochromatographic strip (ICS) test.MethodsThe decision analytical cost-effectiveness models reported incremental costs per disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted from the perspectives of the national health care payer. Clinical outcomes were stillbirths, neonatal deaths, and congenital syphilis. DALYs were computed using WHO disability weights. Costs included the ICS test, three injections of benzathine penicillin, and nurse wages. Country-specific inputs included the antenatal prevalence of syphilis and the proportion of women in the antenatal care setting that are screened for syphilis infection as reported in the 2014 WHO baseline report on global sexually transmitted infection surveillance. Country-specific data on the annual number of live births, proportion of women with at least one antenatal care visit, and per capita gross national income were also included in the model.ResultsThe incremental cost/DALY averted of syphilis screening is US$53 (range: US$10-US$332; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.71%) in Asia and US$60 (range: US$5-US$225; Prob<1*per capita GDP=99.77%) in Latin America. Universal screening may reduce the annual number of stillbirths by 20,344 and 4,270, neonatal deaths by 8,201 and 1,721, cases of congenital syphilis by 10,952 and 2,298, and avert 925,039 and 197,454 DALYs in the aggregate Asian and Latin American panel, respectively.ConclusionAntenatal syphilis screening is highly cost-effective in all the 11 Asian and 20 Latin American countries assessed. Our findings support the decision to expand syphilis screening in countries with currently low screening rates or continue national syphilis screening programs in countries with high rates.     

Clinical benefits, costs, and cost-effectiveness of neonatal intensive care in Mexico

Background

Neonatal intensive care improves survival, but is associated with high costs and disability amongst survivors. Recent health reform in Mexico launched a new subsidized insurance program, necessitating informed choices on the different interventions that might be covered by the program, including neonatal intensive care. The purpose of this study was to estimate the clinical outcomes, costs, and cost-effectiveness of neonatal intensive care in Mexico.

Methods and Findings

A cost-effectiveness analysis was conducted using a decision analytic model of health and economic outcomes following preterm birth. Model parameters governing health outcomes were estimated from Mexican vital registration and hospital discharge databases, supplemented with meta-analyses and systematic reviews from the published literature. Costs were estimated on the basis of data provided by the Ministry of Health in Mexico and World Health Organization price lists, supplemented with published studies from other countries as needed. The model estimated changes in clinical outcomes, life expectancy, disability-free life expectancy, lifetime costs, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) for neonatal intensive care compared to no intensive care. Uncertainty around the results was characterized using one-way sensitivity analyses and a multivariate probabilistic sensitivity analysis. In the base-case analysis, neonatal intensive care for infants born at 24–26, 27–29, and 30–33 weeks gestational age prolonged life expectancy by 28, 43, and 34 years and averted 9, 15, and 12 DALYs, at incremental costs per infant of US$11,400, US$9,500, and US$3,000, respectively, compared to an alternative of no intensive care. The ICERs of neonatal intensive care at 24–26, 27–29, and 30–33 weeks were US$1,200, US$650, and US$240, per DALY averted, respectively. The findings were robust to variation in parameter values over wide ranges in sensitivity analyses.

Conclusions

Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for neonatal intensive care imply very high value for money on the basis of conventional benchmarks for cost-effectiveness analysis. Please see later in the article for the Editors'' Summary     

Cost-effectiveness of total hip and knee replacements for the Australian population with osteoarthritis: discrete-event simulation model

Background

Osteoarthritis constitutes a major musculoskeletal burden for the aged Australians. Hip and knee replacement surgeries are effective interventions once all conservative therapies to manage the symptoms have been exhausted. This study aims to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of hip and knee replacements in Australia. To our best knowledge, the study is the first attempt to account for the dual nature of hip and knee osteoarthritis in modelling the severities of right and left joints separately.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a discrete-event simulation model that follows up the individuals with osteoarthritis over their lifetimes. The model defines separate attributes for right and left joints and accounts for several repeat replacements. The Australian population with osteoarthritis who were 40 years of age or older in 2003 were followed up until extinct. Intervention effects were modelled by means of disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted. Both hip and knee replacements are highly cost effective (AUD 5,000 per DALY and AUD 12,000 per DALY respectively) under an AUD 50,000/DALY threshold level. The exclusion of cost offsets, and inclusion of future unrelated health care costs in extended years of life, did not change the findings that the interventions are cost-effective (AUD 17,000 per DALY and AUD 26,000 per DALY respectively). However, there was a substantial difference between hip and knee replacements where surgeries administered for hips were more cost-effective than for knees.

Conclusions/Significance

Both hip and knee replacements are cost-effective interventions to improve the quality of life of people with osteoarthritis. It was also shown that the dual nature of hip and knee OA should be taken into account to provide more accurate estimation on the cost-effectiveness of hip and knee replacements.     

Obstructed labor and caesarean delivery: the cost and benefit of surgical intervention

Background

Although advances in the reduction of maternal mortality have been made, up to 273,000 women will die this year from obstetric etiologies. Obstructed labor (OL), most commonly treated with Caesarean delivery, has been identified as a major contributor to global maternal morbidity and mortality. We used economic and epidemiological modeling to estimate the cost per disability-adjusted life-year (DALY) averted and benefit-cost ratio of treating OL with Caesarean delivery for 49 countries identified as providing an insufficient number of Caesarean deliveries to meet demand.

Methods and Findings

Using publicly available data and explicit economic assumptions, we estimated that the cost per DALY (3,0,0) averted for providing Caesarean delivery for OL ranged widely, from $251 per DALY averted in Madagascar to $3,462 in Oman. The median cost per DALY averted was $304. Benefit-cost ratios also varied, from 0.6 in Zimbabwe to 69.9 in Gabon. The median benefit-cost ratio calculated was 6.0. The main limitation of this study is an assumption that lack of surgical capacity is the main factor responsible for DALYs from OL.

Conclusions

Using the World Health Organization''s cost-effectiveness standards, investing in Caesarean delivery can be considered “highly cost-effective” for 48 of the 49 countries included in this study. Furthermore, in 46 of the 49 included countries, the benefit-cost ratio was greater than 1.0, implying that investment in Caesarean delivery is a viable economic proposition. While Caesarean delivery alone is not sufficient for combating OL, it is necessary, cost-effective by WHO standards, and ultimately economically favorable in the vast majority of countries included in this study.     

Costs and Cost-Effectiveness of Hypertension Screening and Treatment in Adults with Hypertension in Rural Nigeria in the Context of a Health Insurance Program

BackgroundHigh blood pressure is a leading risk factor for death and disability in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). We evaluated the costs and cost-effectiveness of hypertension care provided within the Kwara State Health Insurance (KSHI) program in rural Nigeria.MethodsA Markov model was developed to assess the costs and cost-effectiveness of population-level hypertension screening and subsequent antihypertensive treatment for the population at-risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) within the KSHI program. The primary outcome was the incremental cost per disability-adjusted life year (DALY) averted in the KSHI scenario compared to no access to hypertension care. We used setting-specific and empirically-collected data to inform the model. We defined two strategies to assess eligibility for antihypertensive treatment based on 1) presence of hypertension grade 1 and 10-year CVD risk of >20%, or grade 2 hypertension irrespective of 10-year CVD risk (hypertension and risk based strategy) and 2) presence of hypertension in combination with a CVD risk of >20% (risk based strategy). We generated 95% confidence intervals around the primary outcome through probabilistic sensitivity analysis. We conducted one-way sensitivity analyses across key model parameters and assessed the sensitivity of our results to the performance of the reference scenario.ResultsScreening and treatment for hypertension was potentially cost-effective but the results were sensitive to changes in underlying assumptions with a wide range of uncertainty. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for the first and second strategy respectively ranged from US$ 1,406 to US$ 7,815 and US$ 732 to US$ 2,959 per DALY averted, depending on the assumptions on risk reduction after treatment and compared to no access to antihypertensive treatment.ConclusionsHypertension care within a subsidized private health insurance program may be cost-effective in rural Nigeria and public-private partnerships such as the KSHI program may provide opportunities to finance CVD prevention care in SSA.     

COVID-19 vaccination in Sindh Province,Pakistan: A modelling study of health impact and cost-effectiveness

BackgroundMultiple Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines appear to be safe and efficacious, but only high-income countries have the resources to procure sufficient vaccine doses for most of their eligible populations. The World Health Organization has published guidelines for vaccine prioritisation, but most vaccine impact projections have focused on high-income countries, and few incorporate economic considerations. To address this evidence gap, we projected the health and economic impact of different vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan (population: 48 million).Methods and findingsWe fitted a compartmental transmission model to COVID-19 cases and deaths in Sindh from 30 April to 15 September 2020. We then projected cases, deaths, and hospitalisation outcomes over 10 years under different vaccine scenarios. Finally, we combined these projections with a detailed economic model to estimate incremental costs (from healthcare and partial societal perspectives), disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for each scenario.We project that 1 year of vaccine distribution, at delivery rates consistent with COVAX projections, using an infection-blocking vaccine at $3/dose with 70% efficacy and 2.5-year duration of protection is likely to avert around 0.9 (95% credible interval (CrI): 0.9, 1.0) million cases, 10.1 (95% CrI: 10.1, 10.3) thousand deaths, and 70.1 (95% CrI: 69.9, 70.6) thousand DALYs, with an ICER of $27.9 per DALY averted from the health system perspective. Under a broad range of alternative scenarios, we find that initially prioritising the older (65+) population generally prevents more deaths. However, unprioritised distribution has almost the same cost-effectiveness when considering all outcomes, and both prioritised and unprioritised programmes can be cost-effective for low per-dose costs. High vaccine prices ($10/dose), however, may not be cost-effective, depending on the specifics of vaccine performance, distribution programme, and future pandemic trends.The principal drivers of the health outcomes are the fitted values for the overall transmission scaling parameter and disease natural history parameters from other studies, particularly age-specific probabilities of infection and symptomatic disease, as well as social contact rates. Other parameters are investigated in sensitivity analyses.This study is limited by model approximations, available data, and future uncertainty. Because the model is a single-population compartmental model, detailed impacts of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as household isolation cannot be practically represented or evaluated in combination with vaccine programmes. Similarly, the model cannot consider prioritising groups like healthcare or other essential workers. The model is only fitted to the reported case and death data, which are incomplete and not disaggregated by, e.g., age. Finally, because the future impact and implementation cost of NPIs are uncertain, how these would interact with vaccination remains an open question.ConclusionsCOVID-19 vaccination can have a considerable health impact and is likely to be cost-effective if more optimistic vaccine scenarios apply. Preventing severe disease is an important contributor to this impact. However, the advantage of prioritising older, high-risk populations is smaller in generally younger populations. This reduction is especially true in populations with more past transmission, and if the vaccine is likely to further impede transmission rather than just disease. Those conditions are typical of many low- and middle-income countries.

In a modelling study, Carl A B Pearson and coauthors investigate the health impact and cost-effectiveness of various COVID-19 vaccination scenarios in Sindh Province, Pakistan     

The Cost-Effectiveness of Monitoring Strategies for Antiretroviral Therapy of HIV Infected Patients in Resource-Limited Settings: Software Tool

Background

The cost-effectiveness of routine viral load (VL) monitoring of HIV-infected patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) depends on various factors that differ between settings and across time. Low-cost point-of-care (POC) tests for VL are in development and may make routine VL monitoring affordable in resource-limited settings. We developed a software tool to study the cost-effectiveness of switching to second-line ART with different monitoring strategies, and focused on POC-VL monitoring.

Methods

We used a mathematical model to simulate cohorts of patients from start of ART until death. We modeled 13 strategies (no 2^nd-line, clinical, CD4 (with or without targeted VL), POC-VL, and laboratory-based VL monitoring, with different frequencies). We included a scenario with identical failure rates across strategies, and one in which routine VL monitoring reduces the risk of failure. We compared lifetime costs and averted disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). We calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICER). We developed an Excel tool to update the results of the model for varying unit costs and cohort characteristics, and conducted several sensitivity analyses varying the input costs.

Results

Introducing 2^nd-line ART had an ICER of US$1651-1766/DALY averted. Compared with clinical monitoring, the ICER of CD4 monitoring was US$1896-US$5488/DALY averted and VL monitoring US$951-US$5813/DALY averted. We found no difference between POC- and laboratory-based VL monitoring, except for the highest measurement frequency (every 6 months), where laboratory-based testing was more effective. Targeted VL monitoring was on the cost-effectiveness frontier only if the difference between 1^st- and 2^nd-line costs remained large, and if we assumed that routine VL monitoring does not prevent failure.

Conclusion

Compared with the less expensive strategies, the cost-effectiveness of routine VL monitoring essentially depends on the cost of 2^nd-line ART. Our Excel tool is useful for determining optimal monitoring strategies for specific settings, with specific sex-and age-distributions and unit costs.     

Potential impact and cost-effectiveness of multi-biofortified rice in China

Biofortification, that is, improving the micronutrient content of staple foods through crop breeding, could be a pro-poor, pro-rural, agriculture-based intervention to reduce the health burden of micronutrient malnutrition. While the potential cost-effectiveness of crops biofortified with single micronutrients was shown in previous research, poor people often suffer from multiple micronutrient deficiencies, which should be accounted for in biofortification initiatives. This study is the first to estimate the potential health benefits and cost-effectiveness of multi-biofortification. Rice with enhanced provitamin A, zinc, iron and folate concentrations is used as a concrete example. The research is conducted for China, the largest rice producer in the world, where micronutrient malnutrition remains a major public health problem. Using the DALY (disability-adjusted life year) framework, the current annual health burden of the four micronutrient deficiencies in China is estimated at 10.6 million DALYs. Introducing multi-biofortified rice could lower this burden by up to 46%. Given the large positive health impact and low recurrent costs of multi-biofortification, this intervention could be very cost effective: under optimistic assumptions, the cost per DALY saved would be around US$ 2; it would stay below US$ 10 even under pessimistic assumptions.     

Cost Effectiveness of Implementing Integrated Management of Neonatal and Childhood Illnesses Program in District Faridabad,India

Introduction

Despite the evidence for preventing childhood morbidity and mortality, financial resources are cited as a constraint for Governments to scale up the key health interventions in some countries. We evaluate the cost effectiveness of implementing IMNCI program in India from a health system and societal perspective.

Methods

We parameterized a decision analytic model to assess incremental cost effectiveness of IMNCI program as against routine child health services for infant population at district level in India. Using a 15-years time horizon from 2007 to 2022, we populated the model using data on costs and effects as found from a cluster-randomized trial to assess effectiveness of IMNCI program in Haryana state. Effectiveness was estimated as reduction in infant illness episodes, deaths and disability adjusted life years (DALY). Incremental cost per DALY averted was used to estimate cost effectiveness of IMNCI. Future costs and effects were discounted at a rate of 3%. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis was undertaken to estimate the probability of IMNCI to be cost effective at varying willingness to pay thresholds.

Results

Implementation of IMNCI results in a cumulative reduction of 57384 illness episodes, 2369 deaths and 76158 DALYs among infants at district level from 2007 to 2022. Overall, from a health system perspective, IMNCI program incurs an incremental cost of USD 34.5 (INR 1554) per DALY averted, USD 34.5 (INR 1554) per life year gained, USD 1110 (INR 49963) per infant death averted. There is 90% probability for ICER to be cost effective at INR 2300 willingness to pay, which is 5.5% of India’s GDP per capita. From a societal perspective, IMNCI program incurs an additional cost of USD 24.1 (INR 1082) per DALY averted, USD 773 (INR 34799) per infant death averted and USD 26.3 (INR 1183) per illness averted in during infancy.

Conclusion

IMNCI program in Indian context is very cost effective and should be scaled-up as a major child survival strategy.