Predator–vole interactions in northern Europe: the role of small mustelids revised

The cyclic population dynamics of vole and predator communities is a key phenomenon in northern ecosystems, and it appears to be influenced by climate change. Reports of collapsing rodent cycles have attributed the changes to warmer winters, which weaken the interaction between voles and their specialist subnivean predators. Using population data collected throughout Finland during 1986–2011, we analyse the spatio-temporal variation in the interactions between populations of voles and specialist, generalist and avian predators, and investigate by simulations the roles of the different predators in the vole cycle. We test the hypothesis that vole population cyclicity is dependent on predator–prey interactions during winter. Our results support the importance of the small mustelids for the vole cycle. However, weakening specialist predation during winters, or an increase in generalist predation, was not associated with the loss of cyclicity. Strengthening of delayed density dependence coincided with strengthening small mustelid influence on the summer population growth rates of voles. In conclusion, a strong impact of small mustelids during summers appears highly influential to vole population dynamics, and deteriorating winter conditions are not a viable explanation for collapsing small mammal population cycles.     

Food web structure and climate effects on the dynamics of small mammals and owls in semi-arid Chile

Population dynamics of small mammals and predators in semi-arid Chile is positively correlated with rainfall associated with incursions of El Niño (El Niño Southern Oscillation: ENSO). However, the causal relationships between small mammal fluctuations, predator oscillations, and climatic disturbances are poorly understood. Here, we report time series models for three species of small mammal prey and two species of owl predators. The large differences in population fluctuations between the three small mammal species are related to differences in their respective feedback structures. The analyses reveal that per capita growth rate of the leaf-eared mouse is a decreasing function of log density and of log barn owl abundance together with a positive rainfall effect. In turn, per capita population growth rate ( R -function) of the barn owl is a negative function of log barn owl abundance and a positive function of leaf-eared mouse abundance, suggesting a predator–prey interaction. The dramatic population fluctuations exhibited by leaf-eared mouse ( Phyllotis darwini ) are caused by climate effects coupled with a complex food web architecture.     

Changes over time in the spatiotemporal dynamics of cyclic populations of field voles (Microtus agrestis L.)

We demonstrate changes over time in the spatial and temporal dynamics of an herbivorous small rodent by analyzing time series of population densities obtained at 21 locations on clear cuts within a coniferous forest in Britain from 1984 to 2004. Changes had taken place in the amplitude, periodicity, and synchrony of cycles and density-dependent feedback on population growth rates. Evidence for the presence of a unidirectional traveling wave in rodent abundance was strong near the beginning of the study but had disappeared near the end. This study provides empirical support for the hypothesis that the temporal (such as delayed density dependence structure) and spatial (such as traveling waves) dynamics of cyclic populations are closely linked. The changes in dynamics were markedly season specific, and changes in overwintering dynamics were most pronounced. Climatic changes, resulting in a less seasonal environment with shorter winters near the end of the study, are likely to have caused the changes in vole dynamics. Similar changes in rodent dynamics and the climate as reported from Fennoscandia indicate the involvement of large-scale climatic variables.     

Feedback structures of northern small rodent populations

Regular oscillations of northern small rodents (lemmings, voles and mice) have fascinated ecologists for decades. In particular, cycles exhibited by Fennoscandian voles have inspired population ecologists to propose several hypotheses for their underlying causes. Although there is now some agreement that the interaction with specialist predators is involved, many aspects remain enigmatic, one being the precise ecological mechanism involved in the first-order feedback effect (i.e. direct density dependence). In this paper we evaluate the relative importance of first and second-order negative feedback on small rodent dynamics in 64 data sets, assess the evidence of non-linearity in the feedback structure, and look for similarities and/or differences between species and places. A clear feature of our analysis was the highly consistent pattern of first-order dynamics across species and locations, suggesting the importance of intra-specific interactions independent of local environmental conditions. Second-order feedback generally showed a large degree of variation and appears to be strongly dependent on environmental conditions and locality. There seems to be no consistent latitudinal pattern or non-linearity in the feedback responses. We conclude that northern small rodent populations are basically regulated by both highly consistent first-order feedback (e.g. intra-specific competition, functional responses of generalist predators) and less consistent, site-specific second-order effects (e.g. numerical responses of specialist predators or food plants).     

The anatomy of predator-prey dynamics in a changing climate

Humans are increasingly influencing global climate and regional predator assemblages, yet a mechanistic understanding of how climate and predation interact to affect fluctuations in prey populations is currently lacking. Here we develop a modelling framework to explore the effects of different predation strategies on the response of age-structured prey populations to a changing climate. We show that predation acts in opposition to temporal correlation in climatic conditions to suppress prey population fluctuations. Ambush predators such as lions are shown to be more effective at suppressing fluctuations in their prey than cursorial predators such as wolves, which chase down prey over long distances, because they are more effective predators on prime-aged adults. We model climate as a Markov process and explore the consequences of future changes in climatic autocorrelation for population dynamics. We show that the presence of healthy predator populations will be particularly important in dampening prey population fluctuations if temporal correlation in climatic conditions increases in the future.     

Body masses,functional responses and predator–prey stability

The stability of ecological communities depends strongly on quantitative characteristics of population interactions (type‐II vs. type‐III functional responses) and the distribution of body masses across species. Until now, these two aspects have almost exclusively been treated separately leaving a substantial gap in our general understanding of food webs. We analysed a large data set of arthropod feeding rates and found that all functional‐response parameters depend on the body masses of predator and prey. Thus, we propose generalised functional responses which predict gradual shifts from type‐II predation of small predators on equally sized prey to type‐III functional‐responses of large predators on small prey. Models including these generalised functional responses predict population dynamics and persistence only depending on predator and prey body masses, and we show that these predictions are strongly supported by empirical data on forest soil food webs. These results help unravelling systematic relationships between quantitative population interactions and large‐scale community patterns.     

Seasonal shifts in predator body size diversity and trophic interactions in size-structured predator-prey systems

1.?Theory suggests that the relationship between predator diversity and prey suppression should depend on variation in predator traits such as body size, which strongly influences the type and strength of species interactions. Prey species often face a range of different sized predators, and the composition of body sizes of predators can vary between communities and within communities across seasons. 2.?Here, I test how variation in size structure of predator communities influences prey survival using seasonal changes in the size structure of a cannibalistic population as a model system. Laboratory and field experiments showed that although the per-capita consumption rates increased at higher predator-prey size ratios, mortality rates did not consistently increase with average size of cannibalistic predators. Instead, prey mortality peaked at the highest level of predator body size diversity. 3.?Furthermore, observed prey mortality was significantly higher than predictions from the null model that assumed no indirect interactions between predator size classes, indicating that different sized predators were not substitutable but had more than additive effects. Higher predator body size diversity therefore increased prey mortality, despite the increased potential for behavioural interference and predation among predators demonstrated in additional laboratory experiments. 4.?Thus, seasonal changes in the distribution of predator body sizes altered the strength of prey suppression not only through changes in mean predator size but also through changes in the size distribution of predators. In general, this indicates that variation (i.e. diversity) within a single trait, body size, can influence the strength of trophic interactions and emphasizes the importance of seasonal shifts in size structure of natural food webs for community dynamics.     

Do nomadic avian predators synchronize population fluctuations of small mammals? a field experiment

Three-to-five-year population oscillations of northern small rodents are usually synchronous over hundreds of square kilometers. This regional synchrony could be due to similarity in climatic factors, or due to nomadic predators reducing the patches of high prey density close to the average density of a larger area. We estimated avian predator and small rodent densities in 4–5 predator reduction and 4–5 control areas (c. 3 km² each) during 1989–1992 in western Finland. We studied whether nomadic avian predators concentrate at high prey density areas, and whether this decreases spatial variation in prey density. The yearly mean number of avian predator breeding territories was 0.2–1.0 in reduction areas and 3.0–8.2 in control areas. Hunting birds of prey concentrated in high prey density areas after their breeding season (August), but not necessarily during the breeding season (April to June), when they were constrained to hunt in vicinity of the nest. The experimental reduction of breeding avian predators increased variation in prey density among areas but not within areas. The difference in variation between raptor reduction and control areas was largest in the late breeding season of birds of prey, and decreased rapidly after the breeding season. These results appeared to support the hypothesis that the geographic synchrony of population cycles in small mammals may be driven by nomadic predators concentrating in high prey density areas. Predation and climatic factors apparently are complementary, rather than exclusive, factors in contributing to the synchrony.     

Coping with fast climate change in northern ecosystems: mechanisms underlying the population‐level response of a specialist avian predator

Northern ecosystems are facing unprecedented climate modifications, which pose a major threat for arctic species, especially the specialist predator guild. However, the mechanisms underlying responses of predators to climate change remain poorly understood. Climate can influence fitness parameters of predators either through reduced reproduction or survival following adverse weather conditions, or via changes in the population dynamics of their main prey. Here, we combined three overlapping long‐term datasets on the breeding density and parameters of a rodent‐specialist predator, the rough‐legged buzzard Buteo lagopus, its main prey population dynamics and climate variables, collected in subarctic areas of Finland and Norway, to assess the impact of changing climate on the predator reproductive response. Rough‐legged buzzards responded to ongoing climate change by advancing their laying date (0.1 d yr^?1 over the 21 yr of the study period), as a consequence of earlier snowmelt. However, we documented for the same period a decrease in breeding success, which principally resulted from an indirect effect of changes in the dynamics of their main prey, i.e. grey‐sided voles Microtus oeconomus, and not from the expected negative effect of unfavorable weather conditions during the brood‐rearing period on nestling survival. Additionally, we showed the striking impact of autumn and winter weather conditions on vole population growth rates in subarctic ecosystems, with a strong positive correlation between mean snow depth in autumn and winter and both winter and summer population growth rates. Our results highlighted that, in northern ecosystems, ongoing climate change has the potential to impact specialist predator species through two mechanistic linkages, which may in the long‐run, threaten the viability of their populations, and lead to potential severe cascading trophic effects at the ecosystem level.     

Climate and density shape population dynamics of a marine top predator

Long-term studies have documented that climate fluctuations affect the dynamics of populations, but the relative influence of stochastic and density-dependent processes is still poorly understood and debated. Most studies have been conducted on terrestrial systems, and lacking are studies on marine systems explicitly integrating the fact that most populations live in seasonal environments and respond to regular or systematic environmental changes. We separated winter from summer mortality in a seabird population, the blue petrel Halobaena caerulea, in the southern Indian Ocean where the El Niño/Southern Oscillation effects occur with a 3-4-year lag. Seventy per cent of the mortality occurred in winter and was linked to climatic factors, being lower during anomalous warm events. The strength of density dependence was affected by climate, with population crashes occurring when poor conditions occurred at high densities. We found that an exceptionally long-lasting warming caused a ca. 40% decline of the population, suggesting that chronic climate change will strongly affect this top predator. These findings demonstrate that populations in marine systems are particularly susceptible to climate variation through complex interactions between seasonal mortality and density-dependent effects.     

Dampening prey cycle overrides the impact of climate change on predator population dynamics: a long‐term demographic study on tawny owls

Predicting the dynamics of animal populations with different life histories requires careful understanding of demographic responses to multifaceted aspects of global changes, such as climate and trophic interactions. Continent‐scale dampening of vole population cycles, keystone herbivores in many ecosystems, has been recently documented across Europe. However, its impact on guilds of vole‐eating predators remains unknown. To quantify this impact, we used a 27‐year study of an avian predator (tawny owl) and its main prey (field vole) collected in Kielder Forest (UK) where vole dynamics shifted from a high‐ to a low‐amplitude fluctuation regime in the mid‐1990s. We measured the functional responses of four demographic rates to changes in prey dynamics and winter climate, characterized by wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation (wNAO). First‐year and adult survival were positively affected by vole density in autumn but relatively insensitive to wNAO. The probability of breeding and number of fledglings were higher in years with high spring vole densities and negative wNAO (i.e. colder and drier winters). These functional responses were incorporated into a stochastic population model. The size of the predator population was projected under scenarios combining prey dynamics and winter climate to test whether climate buffers or alternatively magnifies the impact of changes in prey dynamics. We found the observed dampening vole cycles, characterized by low spring densities, drastically reduced the breeding probability of predators. Our results illustrate that (i) change in trophic interactions can override direct climate change effect; and (ii) the demographic resilience entailed by longevity and the occurrence of a floater stage may be insufficient to buffer hypothesized environmental changes. Ultimately, dampened prey cycles would drive our owl local population towards extinction, with winter climate regimes only altering persistence time. These results suggest that other vole‐eating predators are likely to be threatened by dampening vole cycles throughout Europe.     

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.     

Predator disease out-break modulates top-down, bottom-up and climatic effects on herbivore population dynamics

Human-introduced disease and climatic change are increasingly perturbing natural ecosystems worldwide, but scientists know very little about how they interact to affect ecological dynamics. An outbreak of canine parvovirus (CPV) in the wolf population on Isle Royale allowed us to test the transient effects of an introduced pathogen and global climatic variation on the dynamics of a three-level food chain. Following the introduction of CPV, wolf numbers plummeted, precipitating a switch from top-down to bottom-up regulation of the moose population; consequently, the influence of climate on moose population growth rate doubled. This demonstrates that synergistic interactions between pathogens and climate can lead to shifts in trophic control, and suggests that predators in this system may play an important role in dampening the effects of climate change on the dynamics of their prey.     

Interacting effect of wolves and climate on recruitment in a northern mountain caribou population

There is limited research on the influence of Pacific‐based climate in large herbivore populations. Additionally, much of our understanding on the effect of large‐scale climate on ungulate population dynamics has occurred on forage‐limited rather than predator‐limited populations. We compared the influence of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Index, and local weather on recruitment in a predator‐limited mountain‐dwelling caribou Rangifer tarandus caribou population in the Yukon Territory, Canada, across a range of wolf Canis lupus densities. A large‐scale wolf removal program allowed us to examine the role of Pacific climate and weather when wolves were reduced to ～15% of their pre‐removal levels. Recruitment was best explained by the interaction of wolf density and April‐PDO, with wolf density explaining the most deviance. Predicted recruitment during good springs was 0.45 (SE = 0.04) during wolf removal and 0.29 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. During poor springs (low PDO, increased snow depth) predicted recruitment was 0.55 (SE = 0.10) during wolf removal and 0.12 (SE = 0.03) with no wolf removal. With non‐altered wolf densities, there was a positive relationship between April‐PDO and recruitment due to reduced snow depth at calving, allowing parturient females to disperse up in elevation away from predators. When wolf densities were substantially reduced there was a slight negative relationship between April‐PDO and recruitment, possibly due to a more rapid vegetation green‐up reducing the temporal availability of highly nutritious forage necessary for lactation and subsequent calf growth. Attempts to find general relationships between climate and ungulate population dynamics have proven difficult due to different ecological mechanisms by which climate affects individuals across populations. Temporally varying factors, such as predator density, may also play an important role in uncovering the mechanistic relationship between climate and population dynamics.     

Humpback whale diets respond to variance in ocean climate and ecosystem conditions in the California Current

Large, migratory predators are often cited as sentinel species for ecosystem processes and climate‐related changes, but their utility as indicators is dependent upon an understanding of their response to environmental variability. Documentation of the links between climate variability, ecosystem change and predator dynamics is absent for most top predators. Identifying species that may be useful indicators and elucidating these mechanistic links provides insight into current ecological dynamics and may inform predictions of future ecosystem responses to climatic change. We examine humpback whale response to environmental variability through stable isotope analysis of diet over a dynamic 20‐year period (1993–2012) in the California Current System (CCS). Humpback whale diets captured two major shifts in oceanographic and ecological conditions in the CCS. Isotopic signatures reflect a diet dominated by krill during periods characterized by positive phases of the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), cool sea surface temperature (SST), strong upwelling and high krill biomass. In contrast, humpback whale diets are dominated by schooling fish when the NPGO is negative, SST is warmer, seasonal upwelling is delayed and anchovy and sardine populations display increased biomass and range expansion. These findings demonstrate that humpback whales trophically respond to ecosystem shifts, and as a result, their foraging behavior is a synoptic indicator of oceanographic and ecological conditions across the CCS. Multi‐decadal examination of these sentinel species thus provides insight into biological consequences of interannual climate fluctuations, fundamental to advancing ecosystem predictions related to global climate change.     

Spatiotemporal food web dynamics along a desert riparian–upland transition

Increased awareness of spatiotemporal variation in species interactions has motivated the study of temporally-resolved food web dynamics at the landscape level. Empiricists have focused attention on cross-habitat flows of materials, nutrients, and prey, largely ignoring the movement of predators between habitats that differ in productivity (and how predators integrate pulses in resource availability over time). We set out to study seasonal variation in food web interactions between mammalian carnivores and their rodent prey along a riparian–upland gradient in semi-arid southeastern Arizona which features both spatial and temporal heterogeneity in resource availability. Specifically, we tested whether mammalian carnivores spill over from productive, near-river habitats into adjacent, desert-scrub habitats; and if they do, to document the effects of this spillover on rodent communities. Furthermore, we examined seasonal variation in top-down effects by measuring changes in carnivore diet and distribution patterns and rodent populations over time. The results indicate that carnivores track seasonally-abundant resources across the landscape, varying both their diet and movement patterns. In turn, desert-scrub rodent population dynamics track seasonal shifts in carnivore habitat use but not resource availability, suggesting that predation plays a role in structuring rodent communities along the San Pedro River. Further evidence comes from data on rodent community composition, which differs between desert-scrub habitats near and far from the river, despite similarities in resource availability. Our data also suggest that seasonal omnivory helps predators survive lean times, increasing their effects on prey populations. Taken together, these results underscore the importance of spatiotemporal variation in species interactions, highlighting the complexity of natural systems and the need for further detailed studies of food web dynamics.     

Uncertainty and predictability in population dynamics of a bitrophic ecological model: Mixed-mode oscillations,bistability and sensitivity to parameters

We consider a two-trophic ecological model comprising of two predators competing for their common prey. We cast the model into the framework of a singular perturbed system of equations in one fast variable (prey population density) and two slow variables (predator population densities), mimicking the common observation that the per-capita productivity rate decreases from bottom to top along the trophic levels in Nature. We assume that both predators exhibit Holling II functional response with one of the predators (territorial) having a density dependent mortality rate. Depending on the system parameters, the model exhibits small, intermediate and/or large fluctuations in the population densities. The large fluctuations correspond to periodic population outbreaks followed by collapses (commonly known as cycles of “boom and bust”). The small fluctuations arise due to a singular Hopf bifurcation in the system, and are ecologically more desirable. However, more interestingly, the system exhibits mixed-mode oscillations (which are concatenations of the large amplitude oscillations and the small amplitude oscillations) that indicate the adaptability of the species to prolong the time gap between successive cycles of boom and bust. Numerical simulations are carried out to demonstrate the extreme sensitivity of the system to initial conditions (chaos and bistability of limit cycles are observed) as well as to the system parameters (here we only show the sensitivity to the density dependent mortality rate of the territorial predator). This model throws light at the uncertainties in long term behaviors that are associated with a real ecological system. We show that even very small changes in the system parameters due to natural or human-induced causes can lead to a complete different ecological phenomenon, thus affecting the predictability of the density of the prey population. In this paper, we explain the mechanisms behind the irregular fluctuations in the population sizes in an attempt to understand the dynamics occurring in a natural population and also comment on the inherent uncertainties associated with the system.     

Feedback between size balance and consumption strongly affects the consequences of hatching phenology in size‐dependent predator–prey interactions

In many size‐dependent predator–prey systems, hatching phenology strongly affects predator–prey interaction outcomes. Early‐hatched predators can easily consume prey when they first interact because they encounter smaller prey. However, this process by itself may be insufficient to explain all predator–prey interaction outcomes over the whole interaction period because the predator–prey size balance changes dynamically throughout their ontogeny. We hypothesized that hatching phenology influences predator–prey interactions via a feedback mechanism between the predator–prey size balance and prey consumption by predators. We experimentally tested this hypothesis in an amphibian predator–prey model system. Frog tadpoles Rana pirica were exposed to a predatory salamander larva Hynobius retardatus that had hatched 5, 12, 19 or 26 days after the frog tadpoles hatched. We investigated how the salamander hatch timing affected the dynamics of prey mortality, size changes of both predator and prey, and their subsequent life history (larval period and size at metamorphosis). The predator–prey size balance favoured earlier hatched salamanders, which just after hatching could successfully consume more frog tadpoles than later hatched salamanders. The early‐hatched salamanders grew rapidly and their accelerated growth enabled them to maintain the predator‐superior size balance; thus, they continued to exert strong predation pressure on the frog tadpoles in the subsequent period. Furthermore, frog tadpoles exposed to the early‐hatched salamanders were larger at metamorphosis and had a longer larval period than other frog tadpoles. These results suggest that feedback between the predator‐superior size balance and prey consumption is a critical mechanism that strongly affects the impacts of early hatching of predators in the short‐term population dynamics and life history of the prey. Because consumption of large nutrient‐rich prey items supports the growth of predators, a similar feedback mechanism may be common and have strong impacts on phenological shifts in size‐dependent trophic relationships.     

The importance of marine vs. human-induced subsidies in the maintenance of an expanding mesocarnivore in the arctic tundra

1. Most studies addressing the causes of the recent increases and expansions of mesopredators in many ecosystems have focused on the top-down, releasing effect of extinctions of large apex predators. However, in the case of the northward expansion of the red fox into the arctic tundra, a bottom-up effect of increased resource availability has been proposed, an effect that can counteract prey shortage in the low phase of the multi-annual rodent cycle. Resource subsidies both with marine and with terrestrial origins could potentially be involved. 2. During different phases of a multi-annual rodent cycle, we investigated the seasonal dynamics and spatial pattern of resource use by red foxes across a coast to inland low arctic tundra gradient, Varanger Peninsula, Norway. We employed two complementary methods of diet analyses: stomach contents and stable isotope analysis. 3. We found that inland red foxes primarily subsisted on reindeer carrions during the low phase of a small rodent population cycle. Lemmings became the most important food item towards the peak phase of the rodent cycle, despite being less abundant than sympatric voles. Isotopic signatures of tissue from both predator and prey also revealed that red foxes near the coast used marine-derived subsidies in the winter, but these allochthonous resources did not spillover to adult foxes living beyond 20-25 km from the coast. 4. Although more needs to be learned about the link between increasing primary productivity due to climatic warming and trophic dynamics in tundra ecosystems, we suggest that changes in reindeer management through a bottom-up effect, at least regionally, may have paved the way towards the establishment of a new mesopredator in the tundra biome.     

Population cycles in voles and lemmings: state of the science and future directions

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